Bruce Bueno de Mesquita predicts Iran's future

141,604 views ・ 2009-04-07

TED


请双击下面的英文字幕来播放视频。

翻译人员: Weiyu Chen 校对人员: dahong zhang
00:18
What I'm going to try to do is explain to you
0
18330
3000
我将很快的向大家解释一下
00:21
quickly how to predict,
1
21330
2000
我们怎样预测未来
00:23
and illustrate it with some predictions
2
23330
2000
并且向大家展示一下
00:25
about what Iran is going to do in the next couple of years.
3
25330
5000
我们对未来几年伊朗局势所做出的一些预测
00:30
In order to predict effectively,
4
30330
3000
为了做出准确的预测
00:33
we need to use science.
5
33330
3000
我们需要利用科学
00:36
And the reason that we need to use science
6
36330
3000
而利用科学的原因是
00:39
is because then we can reproduce what we're doing;
7
39330
2000
我们可以重复验证所得到的结果
00:41
it's not just wisdom or guesswork.
8
41330
3000
这就不是智者的预言或者瞎猜
00:44
And if we can predict,
9
44330
3000
如果我们可以预测未来
00:47
then we can engineer the future.
10
47330
2000
我们就可以操纵未来
00:49
So if you are concerned to influence energy policy,
11
49330
4000
换言之,当你想去左右国家能源政策的时候
00:53
or you are concerned to influence national security policy,
12
53330
5000
或者,当你想去影响国防政策
00:58
or health policy, or education,
13
58330
3000
医疗政策或教育政策的时候
01:01
science -- and a particular branch of science -- is a way to do it,
14
61330
4000
科学,其中一门科学将会为你指明未来
01:05
not the way we've been doing it,
15
65330
2000
并不是靠我们所使用的方法
01:07
which is seat-of-the-pants wisdom.
16
67330
2000
凭借经验或直觉去预言
01:09
Now before I get into how to do it
17
69330
2000
现在,在我进入主题之前
01:11
let me give you a little truth in advertising,
18
71330
3000
我先给大家一些事先声明,
01:14
because I'm not engaged in the business of magic.
19
74330
3000
我不是算命的
01:17
There are lots of thing that the approach I take can predict,
20
77330
4000
有一些东西我可以预测
01:21
and there are some that it can't.
21
81330
2000
有一些我不能
01:23
It can predict complex negotiations
22
83330
3000
我可以预测一些大型谈判
01:26
or situations involving coercion --
23
86330
3000
牵涉强制力的一些情景
01:29
that is in essence everything that has to do with politics,
24
89330
4000
总的来说,那就是所有和政治有关的事情
01:33
much of what has to do with business,
25
93330
2000
也包括一部份商业方面的
01:35
but sorry, if you're looking to speculate in the stock market,
26
95330
6000
但如果你想在股市抄底,那实在不好意思
01:41
I don't predict stock markets -- OK,
27
101330
2000
我确实不能预测股票市场,不过,好吧
01:43
it's not going up any time really soon.
28
103330
3000
反正最近是绝对不可能涨上去的
01:46
But I'm not engaged in doing that.
29
106330
3000
但那是我不会预测的
01:49
I'm not engaged in predicting random number generators.
30
109330
3000
我也不会去预测随机生成的数字
01:52
I actually get phone calls from people
31
112330
2000
有人曾今打电话问我
01:54
who want to know what lottery numbers are going to win.
32
114330
3000
下期中奖彩票号码是多少
01:57
I don't have a clue.
33
117330
3000
那我爱莫能助。
02:00
I engage in the use of game theory, game theory is a branch of mathematics
34
120330
4000
我所研究的是博弈论的应用,博弈论是数学的一个分支
02:04
and that means, sorry, that even in the study of politics,
35
124330
4000
也就是说,对不起(文科生们),数学已经进入了
02:08
math has come into the picture.
36
128330
3000
政治学的研究领域
02:11
We can no longer pretend that we just speculate about politics,
37
131330
4000
我们现在不能被动的盲目的去推测政治
02:15
we need to look at this in a rigorous way.
38
135330
3000
我们应该采取科学严谨的方法。
02:18
Now, what is game theory about?
39
138330
3000
那,到底什么是博弈论?
02:21
It assumes that people are looking out for what's good for them.
40
141330
5000
博弈论有一个假设,那就是人人为己
02:26
That doesn't seem terribly shocking --
41
146330
2000
这并不是一个让人吃惊的假设
02:28
although it's controversial for a lot of people --
42
148330
2000
尽管有很多人认为人人都是自私自利
02:30
that we are self-interested.
43
150330
4000
是有争议的命题
02:34
In order to look out for what's best for them
44
154330
2000
为了设法得到对自己最好的东西
02:36
or what they think is best for them,
45
156330
2000
或者是他们所认定的对自己最好的东西
02:38
people have values -- they identify what they want, and what they don't want.
46
158330
4000
人们会通过他们不同的价值观,来识别他们所想要的和所憎恨的
02:42
And they have beliefs about what other people want,
47
162330
3000
而且,他们对别人想要什么,不想要什么
02:45
and what other people don't want, how much power other people have,
48
165330
3000
别人有多少势力,他们能拿走多少你想要的
02:48
how much those people could get in the way of whatever it is that you want.
49
168330
4000
保留他们自己的观点
02:52
And they face limitations, constraints,
50
172330
4000
他们会遇到一些条件限制,约束
02:56
they may be weak, they may be located in the wrong part of the world,
51
176330
3000
也许他们十分的不起眼,也许他们在不应在的一些地方
02:59
they may be Einstein, stuck away farming
52
179330
3000
他们可能是爱因斯坦,但是被可能被困在
03:02
someplace in a rural village in India not being noticed,
53
182330
4000
印度的某个村落在种田
03:06
as was the case for Ramanujan for a long time,
54
186330
3000
就像拉马努金一样
03:09
a great mathematician but nobody noticed.
55
189330
3000
一个很少人关注的印度天才数学家
03:12
Now who is rational?
56
192330
2000
那,谁是理性的
03:14
A lot of people are worried about what is rationality about?
57
194330
3000
很多人都在冥想到底什么是理性的
03:17
You know, what if people are rational?
58
197330
2000
人人都是理性的
03:19
Mother Theresa, she was rational.
59
199330
3000
特蕾莎修女,她是理性的
03:22
Terrorists, they're rational.
60
202330
4000
恐怖分子,他们也是理性
03:26
Pretty much everybody is rational.
61
206330
3000
绝大多数人都是理性的
03:29
I think there are only two exceptions that I'm aware of --
62
209330
3000
我只知道两种例外情况
03:32
two-year-olds, they are not rational,
63
212330
2000
两岁大的孩子,他们不是理性的
03:34
they have very fickle preferences,
64
214330
3000
他们想要的东西随时都在变
03:37
they switch what they think all the time,
65
217330
2000
他们的思维方式也在不停的变化
03:39
and schizophrenics are probably not rational,
66
219330
3000
精神分裂症患者也不是理性的
03:42
but pretty much everybody else is rational.
67
222330
2000
但除了以上两者以外,其他所有人都是理性的
03:44
That is, they are just trying to do
68
224330
2000
所谓理性,那就是人们试着去做
03:46
what they think is in their own best interest.
69
226330
5000
他们认为对他们自己最有利的事情
03:51
Now in order to work out what people are going to do
70
231330
2000
现在,为了预测人们将要做什么
03:53
to pursue their interests,
71
233330
2000
来获取他们的个人利益
03:55
we have to think about who has influence in the world.
72
235330
2000
我们研究那些有影响力的人物
03:57
If you're trying to influence corporations to change their behavior,
73
237330
5000
如果,你想去左右一些企业的行为
04:02
with regard to producing pollutants,
74
242330
3000
例如,减少他们污染物的排放量
04:05
one approach, the common approach,
75
245330
2000
有一个方法,一种常见的方法
04:07
is to exhort them to be better,
76
247330
2000
那就是给他们一些忠告
04:09
to explain to them what damage they're doing to the planet.
77
249330
3000
告诉他们这些污染物正在破坏我们的地球
04:12
And many of you may have noticed that doesn't have
78
252330
2000
你会发现这些手段的效果
04:14
as big an effect, as perhaps you would like it to have.
79
254330
4000
并没有你所想象中的那么大
04:18
But if you show them that it's in their interest,
80
258330
3000
但是,如果你告诉他们环保符合他们的利益
04:21
then they're responsive.
81
261330
2000
他们就会有所回应
04:23
So, we have to work out who influences problems.
82
263330
3000
所以,我们就应该找出谁是有影响力的人物。
04:26
If we're looking at Iran, the president of the United States
83
266330
2000
如果我们研究伊朗,我们就会发现
04:28
we would like to think, may have some influence --
84
268330
3000
美国总统会有一定的影响力
04:31
certainly the president in Iran has some influence --
85
271330
4000
当然伊朗的总统也有一定的影响力
04:35
but we make a mistake if we just pay attention
86
275330
3000
但我们会犯一个错误
04:38
to the person at the top of the power ladder
87
278330
3000
当我们只关心决策层的领导
04:41
because that person doesn't know much about Iran,
88
281330
3000
因为那个领导人不一定理解伊朗
04:44
or about energy policy,
89
284330
2000
抑或能源政策
04:46
or about health care,
90
286330
2000
或者医疗政策
04:48
or about any particular policy.
91
288330
2000
甚至有可能不了解任何的政策
04:50
That person surrounds himself or herself with advisers.
92
290330
5000
那个领导人的周围一定还有很多的顾问
04:55
If we're talking about national security problems,
93
295330
2000
若是我们在讨论国家安全问题
04:57
maybe it's the Secretary of State,
94
297330
2000
那个顾问可能是国务卿
04:59
maybe it's the Secretary of Defense,
95
299330
2000
可能是国防部长
05:01
the Director of National Intelligence,
96
301330
2000
情报部门的主任
05:03
maybe the ambassador to the United Nations, or somebody else
97
303330
2000
或者是驻联合国的大使,或是决策层自选的
05:05
who they think is going to know more about the particular problem.
98
305330
4000
一些相关问题专家。
05:09
But let's face it, the Secretary of State doesn't know much about Iran.
99
309330
3000
但现实是,国务卿也不一定十分了解伊朗
05:12
The secretary of defense doesn't know much about Iran.
100
312330
3000
国防部长不一定十分了解伊朗
05:15
Each of those people in turn
101
315330
3000
这些顾问们,同样的
05:18
has advisers who advise them,
102
318330
2000
他们也被更多的顾问所包围着
05:20
so they can advise the president.
103
320330
3000
这样他们才能向总统进谏
05:23
There are lots of people shaping decisions
104
323330
3000
所以,是许多人影响做出决策
05:26
and so if we want to predict correctly
105
326330
2000
也就是说,如果我们想正确的做出预测
05:28
we have to pay attention to everybody
106
328330
3000
我们必须关注影响决策结果
05:31
who is trying to shape the outcome,
107
331330
2000
的每一个人
05:33
not just the people at the pinnacle
108
333330
3000
并不仅仅是在决策机构
05:36
of the decision-making pyramid.
109
336330
4000
金字塔尖上的人
05:40
Unfortunately, a lot of times we don't do that.
110
340330
2000
但不幸的是,大多数时候我们没有这么做
05:42
There's a good reason that we don't do that,
111
342330
2000
我们有很好的理由不这样做,
05:44
and there's a good reason that using game theory and computers,
112
344330
3000
我们也有好的理由去利用博弈论和电脑
05:47
we can overcome the limitation
113
347330
3000
来克服仅仅关注在决策层的几个人
05:50
of just looking at a few people.
114
350330
2000
而做出预测的局限性
05:52
Imagine a problem with just five decision-makers.
115
352330
4000
让我们来假想一个仅有五个决策人的情况。
05:56
Imagine for example
116
356330
2000
比如说
05:58
that Sally over here,
117
358330
2000
Sally在那里
06:00
wants to know what Harry, and Jane,
118
360330
3000
她想知道Harry, Jane, George和Frank
06:03
and George and Frank are thinking,
119
363330
3000
在想些什么
06:06
and sends messages to those people.
120
366330
2000
她向其他人提供了一些信息
06:08
Sally's giving her opinion to them,
121
368330
2000
Sally在给其他人传达她的观点
06:10
and they're giving their opinion to Sally.
122
370330
3000
其他人把他们的观点告诉给她
06:13
But Sally also wants to know
123
373330
2000
但Sally还想知道
06:15
what Harry is saying to these three,
124
375330
3000
Harry在给其他三个人说了些什么
06:18
and what they're saying to Harry.
125
378330
2000
其他三个人有给Harry说了些什么
06:20
And Harry wants to know
126
380330
2000
然后Harry还想知道
06:22
what each of those people are saying to each other, and so on,
127
382330
3000
其他人有在说些什么,以此类推
06:25
and Sally would like to know what Harry thinks those people are saying.
128
385330
3000
Sally还想知道Harry认为其他人在说些什么
06:28
That's a complicated problem; that's a lot to know.
129
388330
3000
这就变成了一个很复杂的问题,太多的信息
06:31
With five decision-makers
130
391330
3000
当有五个决策人的时候
06:34
there are a lot of linkages --
131
394330
2000
就有很多的联系信息
06:36
120, as a matter of fact,
132
396330
2000
事实上有120个
06:38
if you remember your factorials.
133
398330
2000
如果你记得5的阶乘
06:40
Five factorial is 120.
134
400330
2000
5的阶乘是120
06:42
Now you may be surprised to know
135
402330
2000
但也许出乎你的意外
06:44
that smart people can keep 120 things straight
136
404330
3000
一个聪明的人可以在大脑里
06:47
in their head.
137
407330
2000
搞清楚120事情的来龙去脉
06:49
Suppose we double the number of influencers
138
409330
2000
但如果我们把决策人的数量翻一倍
06:51
from five to 10.
139
411330
2000
从五人到十人
06:53
Does that mean we've doubled the number of pieces of information
140
413330
4000
那我们是不是简单的关系的数量
06:57
we need to know, from 120 to 240?
141
417330
2000
也乘以2, 从120到240呢?
06:59
No. How about 10 times?
142
419330
2000
不?十倍?
07:01
To 1,200? No.
143
421330
3000
1200?不
07:04
We've increased it to 3.6 million.
144
424330
3000
我们事实上增加到了三百六十万条信息
07:07
Nobody can keep that straight in their head.
145
427330
2000
没人能够把这弄清楚
07:09
But computers,
146
429330
3000
但是电脑可以
07:12
they can. They don't need coffee breaks,
147
432330
3000
它们可以。它们不用停下来喝咖啡
07:15
they don't need vacations,
148
435330
3000
它们不会放假
07:18
they don't need to go to sleep at night,
149
438330
2000
它们晚上不用睡觉
07:20
they don't ask for raises either.
150
440330
3000
他们也不会要求加薪
07:23
They can keep this information straight
151
443330
2000
它们能够理清楚所有的信息
07:25
and that means that we can process the information.
152
445330
3000
也就是说,我们可以利用它们来处理信息
07:28
So I'm going to talk to you about how to process it,
153
448330
2000
接下来,我会告诉你们怎样来处理
07:30
and I'm going to give you some examples out of Iran,
154
450330
3000
然后我会向你们展示一下关于伊朗的一些预测
07:33
and you're going to be wondering,
155
453330
2000
你也许会纳闷儿了
07:35
"Why should we listen to this guy?
156
455330
2000
我们凭什么相信这个家伙?
07:37
Why should we believe what he's saying?"
157
457330
3000
为什么我们要听信他所说的?
07:40
So I'm going to show you a factoid.
158
460330
4000
所以,我先让你们看个数据
07:44
This is an assessment by the Central Intelligence Agency
159
464330
3000
这是中情局提供的一份评估报告
07:47
of the percentage of time
160
467330
2000
关于我所提到的这个模型
07:49
that the model I'm talking about
161
469330
2000
所做出的一些正确预测
07:51
is right in predicting things whose outcome is not yet known,
162
471330
3000
反而是提供数据的专家
07:54
when the experts who provided the data inputs
163
474330
4000
做出了错误的预测
07:58
got it wrong.
164
478330
2000
错误的预测
08:00
That's not my claim, that's a CIA claim -- you can read it,
165
480330
3000
我不是自卖自夸,这是中情局的东西,你可以读到的
08:03
it was declassified a while ago. You can read it in a volume edited by
166
483330
3000
这报告在前一阵子解的密。你可以在
08:06
H. Bradford Westerfield, Yale University Press.
167
486330
3000
H. Bradford Westerfield编撰的一本书里读到,耶鲁大学出版社
08:09
So, what do we need to know
168
489330
2000
所以,我们需要什么样的信息
08:11
in order to predict?
169
491330
2000
来做出预测呢?
08:13
You may be surprised to find out we don't need to know very much.
170
493330
3000
也许出乎你的意料之外,我们不需要太多的东西
08:16
We do need to know who has a stake
171
496330
3000
我们需要知道的是:哪些人有利害关系
08:19
in trying to shape the outcome of a decision.
172
499330
5000
并试图左右决策。
08:24
We need to know what they say they want,
173
504330
3000
我们需要知道,他们口头上说的目标是什么
08:27
not what they want in their heart of hearts,
174
507330
3000
不一定是他们真正心里所想的目标
08:30
not what they think they can get,
175
510330
2000
不一定是他们认为他们能够得到的
08:32
but what they say they want, because that is a strategically chosen position,
176
512330
3000
而是挂在嘴边的目的,因为那是一个策略性姿态
08:35
and we can work backwards from that
177
515330
2000
我们可以反过来推测,到底什么是
08:37
to draw inferences about important features of their decision-making.
178
517330
4000
真正的左右他们决策的重点。
08:41
We need to know how focused they are
179
521330
2000
我们还需要知道,对于面临的问题
08:43
on the problem at hand.
180
523330
2000
他们的关切程度有多少。
08:45
That is, how willing are they to drop what they're doing when the issue comes up,
181
525330
3000
也就是说,当争议出现时,他们有多情愿放弃手头的东西
08:48
and attend to it instead of something else that's on their plate --
182
528330
4000
并且注意这些而不是盘子里的其他东西
08:52
how big a deal is it to them?
183
532330
2000
这些东西对他们的重要程度是多少?
08:54
And how much clout could they bring to bear
184
534330
3000
我们还需知道 对这件事情到底他们能有多大的影响力
08:57
if they chose to engage on the issue?
185
537330
5000
如果他们选择介入议题。
09:02
If we know those things
186
542330
2000
如果我们了解到了这些
09:04
we can predict their behavior by assuming that everybody
187
544330
3000
我们假设决策人都十分关心
09:07
cares about two things on any decision.
188
547330
5000
决策的两个东西(“名“与“利”),从而预测他们会做出的决策。
09:12
They care about the outcome. They'd like an outcome as close to
189
552330
2000
他们重视结果,并尽可能的把最终决策
09:14
what they are interested in as possible.
190
554330
3000
拉向对自己有利的方向
09:17
They're careerists, they also care about getting credit --
191
557330
3000
这些决策人也是干事业的,他们关心自己的信誉
09:20
there's ego involvement,
192
560330
2000
成就感是一个因素
09:22
they want to be seen as important in shaping the outcome,
193
562330
4000
他们希望别人把他们看成促成决策结果的重要人物
09:26
or as important, if it's their druthers, to block an outcome.
194
566330
5000
或者,成为阻碍决策结果的产生的重要人物。
09:31
And so we have to figure out how they balance those two things.
195
571330
3000
所以,我们还要找到他们名利双收的平衡点
09:34
Different people trade off
196
574330
2000
对于最终决策和成就感
09:36
between standing by their outcome,
197
576330
3000
人人都有不一样的权衡
09:39
faithfully holding to it, going down in a blaze of glory,
198
579330
3000
有的人信守承诺,虔诚的追求荣光,
09:42
or giving it up, putting their finger in the wind,
199
582330
3000
有的不管如何,见风使舵,
09:45
and doing whatever they think is going to be a winning position.
200
585330
3000
朝着自认获利方向行动。
09:48
Most people fall in between, and if we can work out where they fall
201
588330
3000
有的人站在在中间。如果我们知道他们的态度
09:51
we can work out how to negotiate with them
202
591330
2000
我们就可以对他做相应的工作
09:53
to change their behavior.
203
593330
2000
来改变他的行为
09:55
So with just that little bit of input
204
595330
3000
所以,利用那些信息
09:58
we can work out what the choices are that people have,
205
598330
3000
我们可以找出决策者们有什么样的选择
10:01
what the chances are that they're willing to take,
206
601330
3000
他们愿意冒多大的风险
10:04
what they're after, what they value, what they want,
207
604330
3000
他们想要什么,他们的价值观,他们的目的
10:07
and what they believe about other people.
208
607330
3000
和他们认为别人想要什么
10:10
You might notice what we don't need to know:
209
610330
4000
你可能注意到了有一些信息是不重要的
10:14
there's no history in here.
210
614330
2000
我们不需要知道过去的历史
10:16
How they got to where they are
211
616330
2000
他们怎么回到今天这个地步
10:18
may be important in shaping the input information,
212
618330
2000
也许对他们做出决策很重要
10:20
but once we know where they are
213
620330
2000
但一旦我们知道他们到了今天局势
10:22
we're worried about where they're going to be headed in the future.
214
622330
3000
我们想知道的就是他们未来的发展方向
10:25
How they got there turns out not to be terribly critical in predicting.
215
625330
4000
所以,今天的形势是如何形成的,在预测中并不关键
10:29
I remind you of that 90 percent accuracy rate.
216
629330
4000
我再提醒下大家我们百分之九十的正确率
10:33
So where are we going to get this information?
217
633330
2000
那么,我们怎样获得相关信息呢?
10:35
We can get this information
218
635330
3000
我们通过各种渠道搜集信息
10:38
from the Internet, from The Economist,
219
638330
3000
互联网,经济学人杂志
10:41
The Financial Times, The New York Times,
220
641330
3000
金融时报,纽约时报
10:44
U.S. News and World Report, lots of sources like that,
221
644330
3000
美国新闻和世界报道,还有其他一些资源
10:47
or we can get it from asking experts
222
647330
2000
或者我们会直接去询问那些
10:49
who spend their lives studying places and problems,
223
649330
3000
花费了毕生精力来研究该地区和问题的专家
10:52
because those experts know this information.
224
652330
3000
因为他们有大量的信息
10:55
If they don't know, who are the people trying to influence the decision,
225
655330
3000
如果那些专家都不知道有哪些人在影响最终决策
10:58
how much clout do they have,
226
658330
2000
那些人有多大能耐
11:00
how much they care about this issue, and what do they say they want,
227
660330
3000
有多关心最终结果,那些人表面上的目的
11:03
are they experts? That's what it means to be an expert,
228
663330
3000
那他们还是什么“专家”。作为专家
11:06
that's the basic stuff an expert needs to know.
229
666330
4000
他们就应该知道这些基础问题的答案
11:10
Alright, lets turn to Iran.
230
670330
2000
好,现在我们转向伊朗
11:12
Let me make three important predictions --
231
672330
3000
我会做出三个重要的预测
11:15
you can check this out, time will tell.
232
675330
3000
我们走着瞧,时间会证明一切
11:18
What is Iran going to do about its nuclear weapons program?
233
678330
8000
伊朗的核武器计划是怎样的?
11:26
How secure is the theocratic regime in Iran?
234
686330
3000
伊朗政教合一的政权是否稳定?
11:29
What's its future?
235
689330
2000
它的未来怎样?
11:31
And everybody's best friend,
236
691330
3000
还有我们大家的朋友
11:34
Ahmadinejad. How are things going for him?
237
694330
3000
伊朗总统内贾德。 他的下场是怎样的?
11:37
How are things going to be working out for him in the next year or two?
238
697330
6000
他未来一两年的日子好过吗?
11:43
You take a look at this, this is not based on statistics.
239
703330
3000
你们可以看看这个,这些不是基于统计数字
11:46
I want to be very clear here. I'm not projecting some past data into the future.
240
706330
5000
我想明确这一点。我不是在用过去的数字来预测未来
11:51
I've taken inputs on positions and so forth,
241
711330
3000
我把各种有影响力的人物关于些问题所占的位置
11:54
run it through a computer model
242
714330
2000
输入一个电脑模型
11:56
that had simulated the dynamics of interaction,
243
716330
3000
并模拟真人动态互相影响的过程
11:59
and these are the simulated dynamics,
244
719330
2000
这就是整个模拟的动态过程
12:01
the predictions about the path of policy.
245
721330
3000
我们对伊朗核政策路线的预测
12:04
So you can see here on the vertical axis,
246
724330
3000
你先可以看到纵轴
12:07
I haven't shown it all the way down to zero,
247
727330
2000
我没有一直写到零
12:09
there are lots of other options, but here I'm just showing you the prediction,
248
729330
3000
这还有其他很多可能,但我仅仅展示了我们的预测
12:12
so I've narrowed the scale.
249
732330
2000
我也缩小了比例
12:14
Up at the top of the axis, "Build the Bomb."
250
734330
3000
在纵轴的最高处写着 :制造核弹
12:17
At 130, we start somewhere above 130,
251
737330
4000
在130这个位置,我们大概从130开始
12:21
between building a bomb, and making enough weapons-grade fuel
252
741330
3000
那是在制造一枚核弹
12:24
so that you could build a bomb.
253
744330
2000
和生产足够核武器原料之间
12:26
That's where, according to my analyses,
254
746330
3000
根据我的分析,那就是
12:29
the Iranians were at the beginning of this year.
255
749330
3000
伊朗人今年初所在的位置
12:32
And then the model makes predictions down the road.
256
752330
3000
现在,我们的模型开是进行预测了
12:35
At 115 they would only produce enough weapons grade fuel
257
755330
4000
在115,他们只会生产足够的核武器原料
12:39
to show that they know how, but they wouldn't build a weapon:
258
759330
2000
以展示他们懂得怎么造,但他们不会去造
12:41
they would build a research quantity.
259
761330
2000
他们会制造足够的原料用于科研
12:43
It would achieve some national pride,
260
763330
2000
这样可以震震国威
12:45
but not go ahead and build a weapon.
261
765330
3000
但不会去制造真正的核弹
12:48
And down at 100 they would build civilian nuclear energy,
262
768330
2000
在下面100的地方,他们会制造和原料以用于核能生产
12:50
which is what they say is their objective.
263
770330
4000
也就是他们口头上的目标
12:54
The yellow line shows us the most likely path.
264
774330
3000
黄线告诉我们他们最有可能的路线
12:57
The yellow line includes an analysis
265
777330
1000
这条黄线包括了
12:58
of 87 decision makers in Iran,
266
778330
3000
87个重要的伊朗决策人
13:01
and a vast number of outside influencers
267
781330
3000
和大量向伊朗施加压力
13:04
trying to pressure Iran into changing its behavior,
268
784330
3000
的外国势力
13:07
various players in the United States, and Egypt,
269
787330
3000
这包括: 美国,埃及
13:10
and Saudi Arabia, and Russia, European Union,
270
790330
2000
沙特阿拉伯,俄罗斯,欧盟
13:12
Japan, so on and so forth.
271
792330
2000
和日本,等等
13:14
The white line reproduces the analysis
272
794330
4000
白线所代表的
13:18
if the international environment
273
798330
2000
是将外国势力排除在外的伊朗政策走向
13:20
just left Iran to make its own internal decisions,
274
800330
3000
如果国外势力不向伊朗施加压力
13:23
under its own domestic political pressures.
275
803330
2000
让伊朗人自己做决定
13:25
That's not going to be happening,
276
805330
2000
虽然那不会发生
13:27
but you can see that the line comes down faster
277
807330
4000
但是你可以看到,线向下滑的更快了
13:31
if they're not put under international pressure,
278
811330
3000
若没有国际压力的情况下
13:34
if they're allowed to pursue their own devices.
279
814330
2000
而让他们自己发展
13:36
But in any event, by the end of this year,
280
816330
3000
但不管怎样,在今年底
13:39
beginning of next year, we get to a stable equilibrium outcome.
281
819330
3000
明年初,我们会有出现一个平衡
13:42
And that equilibrium is not what the United States would like,
282
822330
4000
这个平衡不是美国想要的,
13:46
but it's probably an equilibrium that the United States can live with,
283
826330
3000
不过这个平衡是美国可以忍受的,
13:49
and that a lot of others can live with.
284
829330
2000
很多人都可以忍受它。
13:51
And that is that Iran will achieve that nationalist pride
285
831330
4000
那就是,伊朗以制造足够的核武器原料
13:55
by making enough weapons-grade fuel, through research,
286
835330
4000
获得民族自豪感,
13:59
so that they could show that they know how to make weapons-grade fuel,
287
839330
4000
展示他们有能力制造武器级核燃料,
14:03
but not enough to actually build a bomb.
288
843330
5000
但不够制造一枚核弹。
14:08
How is this happening?
289
848330
2000
这是怎么会事?
14:10
Over here you can see this is the distribution
290
850330
4000
在这里,你可以看到
14:14
of power in favor of civilian nuclear energy today,
291
854330
5000
今天支持修建核电站的势力分布
14:19
this is what that power block is predicted to be like
292
859330
3000
也就是说,这就是在2010年末,2011年初
14:22
by the late parts of 2010, early parts of 2011.
293
862330
6000
这个可能性的支持者将会变成这样
14:28
Just about nobody supports research on weapons-grade fuel today,
294
868330
4000
虽然今天没有支持生产足够核武器原料
14:32
but by 2011 that gets to be a big block,
295
872330
3000
但在2011年,那一组人将变成最大的一块
14:35
and you put these two together, that's the controlling influence in Iran.
296
875330
4000
把这两块放在一起,他们便成了控制伊朗的主流力量
14:39
Out here today, there are a bunch of people --
297
879330
3000
在今天,有一群人
14:42
Ahmadinejad for example --
298
882330
2000
比如说,内贾德先生
14:44
who would like not only to build a bomb,
299
884330
2000
他们不仅想造一枚核弹
14:46
but test a bomb.
300
886330
2000
还想实验一枚核弹
14:48
That power disappears completely;
301
888330
2000
那一股势力在2011年
14:50
nobody supports that by 2011.
302
890330
3000
将会彻底的消失
14:53
These guys are all shrinking,
303
893330
2000
这些人在缩小
14:55
the power is all drifting out here,
304
895330
3000
这股势力将会移向那里
14:58
so the outcome is going to be the weapons-grade fuel.
305
898330
3000
所以结果将是他们会制造核武原料
15:01
Who are the winners and who are the losers in Iran?
306
901330
3000
那么在伊朗到底谁是赢家和输家呢?
15:04
Take a look at these guys, they're growing in power,
307
904330
3000
我们来看看这些人,他们的势力在增加
15:07
and by the way, this was done a while ago
308
907330
3000
顺便说一下,这个预测做了有一阵子了
15:10
before the current economic crisis,
309
910330
2000
在这次金融危机之前做的
15:12
and that's probably going to get steeper.
310
912330
2000
那就是说 这条线也许会变得更陡
15:14
These folks are the moneyed interests in Iran,
311
914330
2000
这条线代表的是金钱利益集团
15:16
the bankers, the oil people, the bazaaries.
312
916330
4000
银行家,石油集团,商人
15:20
They are growing in political clout,
313
920330
3000
他们的政治势力在扩大
15:23
as the mullahs are isolating themselves --
314
923330
3000
而毛拉(伊斯兰神学家)们在孤立自己
15:26
with the exception of one group of mullahs,
315
926330
2000
除了美国人不太了解的
15:28
who are not well known to Americans.
316
928330
2000
一类毛拉没有这样
15:30
That's this line here, growing in power,
317
930330
2000
他们就是这条线,他们的政治力量也在增长
15:32
these are what the Iranians call the quietists.
318
932330
4000
这就是伊朗人所谓的“安静者”们
15:36
These are the Ayatollahs, mostly based in Qom,
319
936330
3000
这些是在库姆(Qom)的阿亚图拉(伊斯兰教什叶派的最高宗教职衔),
15:39
who have great clout in the religious community,
320
939330
4000
他们在伊朗宗教团体很有势力
15:43
have been quiet on politics and are going to be getting louder,
321
943330
3000
他们现在虽然很安静,他们的声音变得越来越大
15:46
because they see Iran going in an unhealthy direction,
322
946330
2000
因为他们认为伊朗的发展方向不健康
15:48
a direction contrary
323
948330
2000
是与霍梅尼(伊朗1979革命精神领袖)构想
15:50
to what Khomeini had in mind.
324
950330
4000
的路线完全相反
15:54
Here is Mr. Ahmadinejad.
325
954330
2000
这条线是内贾德先生
15:56
Two things to notice: he's getting weaker,
326
956330
3000
注意两件事,一 他越来越弱
15:59
and while he gets a lot of attention in the United States,
327
959330
2000
他在美国确实吸引了很多的注意
16:01
he is not a major player in Iran.
328
961330
2000
但他在伊朗并不是一个主要人物
16:03
He is on the way down.
329
963330
2000
他已在下坡路上
16:05
OK, so I'd like you to take a little away from this.
330
965330
4000
好吧,这我们就说到这里
16:09
Everything is not predictable: the stock market
331
969330
2000
并不是所有的事情都可以被预测,股票市场
16:11
is, at least for me, not predictable,
332
971330
3000
至少对我来说,是不可预测的
16:14
but most complicated negotiations are predictable.
333
974330
5000
但是绝大多数的谈判是可以预测的
16:19
Again, whether we're talking health policy, education,
334
979330
4000
再说一次, 无论是说医疗政策,教育政策
16:23
environment, energy,
335
983330
3000
环境,能源政策
16:26
litigation, mergers,
336
986330
2000
诉讼,公司合并
16:28
all of these are complicated problems
337
988330
2000
所有这些复杂的问题
16:30
that are predictable,
338
990330
2000
都是可以预测的
16:32
that this sort of technology can be applied to.
339
992330
4000
都是适用这种技术的。
16:36
And the reason that being able to predict those things is important,
340
996330
5000
我们可以去预测这些事情是很重要的
16:41
is not just because you might run a hedge fund and make money off of it,
341
1001330
3000
不仅仅因为你可以开个对冲基金来挣一大笔钱
16:44
but because if you can predict what people will do,
342
1004330
3000
而是因为你可以去预测人类的行为
16:47
you can engineer what they will do.
343
1007330
3000
然后去操纵他们的行为
16:50
And if you engineer what they do you can change the world,
344
1010330
2000
如果你可以操纵行为,那你就可以改变世界
16:52
you can get a better result.
345
1012330
2000
你可以得到一个更好的结果
16:54
I would like to leave you with one thought, which is
346
1014330
3000
我最终想说的一点是
16:57
for me, the dominant theme of this gathering,
347
1017330
5000
对我来说,这次集会的宗旨就是
17:02
and is the dominant theme of this way of thinking about the world.
348
1022330
3000
也就是应该是我们看待这个世界的宗旨
17:05
When people say to you,
349
1025330
3000
当有人说
17:08
"That's impossible,"
350
1028330
2000
“这不可能”
17:10
you say back to them,
351
1030330
2000
你回应道
17:12
"When you say 'That's impossible,'
352
1032330
2000
“当你说‘不可能’的时候”
17:14
you're confused with,
353
1034330
2000
你其实在说
17:16
'I don't know how to do it.'"
354
1036330
3000
“我不知道怎样去做”
17:19
Thank you.
355
1039330
2000
谢谢
17:21
(Applause)
356
1041330
4000
鼓掌
17:25
Chris Anderson: One question for you.
357
1045330
2000
我有一个问题
17:27
That was fascinating.
358
1047330
3000
那太让人着迷了
17:30
I love that you put it out there.
359
1050330
3000
我很喜欢你刚才讲的
17:33
I got very nervous halfway through the talk though,
360
1053330
2000
你说到一半的时候,我变得很紧张
17:35
just panicking whether you'd included in your model, the possibility that
361
1055330
3000
在你的模型中, 你是否认为
17:38
putting this prediction out there might change the result.
362
1058330
4000
公布你的预测可能会改变未来结果
17:42
We've got 800 people in Tehran who watch TEDTalks.
363
1062330
3000
我们在德黑兰有800个人在观看TEDTalks
17:45
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita: I've thought about that,
364
1065330
2000
我想过这个问题
17:47
and since I've done a lot of work for the intelligence community,
365
1067330
4000
因为我和情报机构进行了大量的工作
17:51
they've also pondered that.
366
1071330
2000
他们也想过这个问题
17:53
It would be a good thing if
367
1073330
3000
如果人人都投入更多的注意力
17:56
people paid more attention, took seriously,
368
1076330
3000
更加的重视它
17:59
and engaged in the same sorts of calculations,
369
1079330
2000
进行同样的计算预测
18:01
because it would change things. But it would change things in two beneficial ways.
370
1081330
4000
我们可以改变很多的事情。 益处主要是两个方面的
18:05
It would hasten how quickly people arrive at an agreement,
371
1085330
6000
它可以催促人们达成一个协议
18:11
and so it would save everybody a lot of grief and time.
372
1091330
3000
所以大家都可以省很多不必要悲伤和时间
18:14
And, it would arrive at an agreement that everybody was happy with,
373
1094330
4000
然后,这个种协议是皆大欢喜的
18:18
without having to manipulate them so much --
374
1098330
3000
不用进行太多的操控
18:21
which is basically what I do, I manipulate them.
375
1101330
3000
那就是我所做的,操控结果
18:24
So it would be a good thing.
376
1104330
2000
所以,这是一个很好的东西
18:26
CA: So you're kind of trying to say, "People of Iran, this is your destiny, lets go there."
377
1106330
4000
那么,你就是在试着说:“伊朗的人们, 这就是你的命运, 大家就这样做吧."
18:30
BBM: Well, people of Iran, this is what many of you are going to evolve to want,
378
1110330
6000
我会说,伊朗的人们, 这就是你们期望达到的结果
18:36
and we could get there a lot sooner,
379
1116330
2000
我们可以更快的达成协议
18:38
and you would suffer a lot less trouble from economic sanctions,
380
1118330
3000
你们可以少受一点经济制裁
18:41
and we would suffer a lot less fear of the use of military force on our end,
381
1121330
6000
我们可以少一点军事行动的恐惧
18:47
and the world would be a better place.
382
1127330
2000
这个世界将会变得更加美好
18:49
CA: Here's hoping they hear it that way. Thank you very much Bruce.
383
1129330
3000
我们希望他们是这样认为的。谢谢你布鲁斯
18:52
BBM: Thank you.
384
1132330
2000
谢谢
18:54
(Applause)
385
1134330
5000
鼓掌
关于本网站

这个网站将向你介绍对学习英语有用的YouTube视频。你将看到来自世界各地的一流教师教授的英语课程。双击每个视频页面上显示的英文字幕,即可从那里播放视频。字幕会随着视频的播放而同步滚动。如果你有任何意见或要求,请使用此联系表与我们联系。

https://forms.gle/WvT1wiN1qDtmnspy7