Bruce Bueno de Mesquita predicts Iran's future

141,604 views ・ 2009-04-07

TED


Please double-click on the English subtitles below to play the video.

00:18
What I'm going to try to do is explain to you
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quickly how to predict,
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and illustrate it with some predictions
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about what Iran is going to do in the next couple of years.
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In order to predict effectively,
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we need to use science.
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And the reason that we need to use science
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is because then we can reproduce what we're doing;
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it's not just wisdom or guesswork.
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And if we can predict,
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then we can engineer the future.
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So if you are concerned to influence energy policy,
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or you are concerned to influence national security policy,
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or health policy, or education,
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science -- and a particular branch of science -- is a way to do it,
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not the way we've been doing it,
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which is seat-of-the-pants wisdom.
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Now before I get into how to do it
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let me give you a little truth in advertising,
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because I'm not engaged in the business of magic.
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01:17
There are lots of thing that the approach I take can predict,
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01:21
and there are some that it can't.
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01:23
It can predict complex negotiations
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or situations involving coercion --
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that is in essence everything that has to do with politics,
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01:33
much of what has to do with business,
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01:35
but sorry, if you're looking to speculate in the stock market,
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01:41
I don't predict stock markets -- OK,
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it's not going up any time really soon.
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But I'm not engaged in doing that.
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01:49
I'm not engaged in predicting random number generators.
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I actually get phone calls from people
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who want to know what lottery numbers are going to win.
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I don't have a clue.
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02:00
I engage in the use of game theory, game theory is a branch of mathematics
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02:04
and that means, sorry, that even in the study of politics,
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math has come into the picture.
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We can no longer pretend that we just speculate about politics,
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we need to look at this in a rigorous way.
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Now, what is game theory about?
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It assumes that people are looking out for what's good for them.
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That doesn't seem terribly shocking --
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although it's controversial for a lot of people --
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that we are self-interested.
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In order to look out for what's best for them
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or what they think is best for them,
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people have values -- they identify what they want, and what they don't want.
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And they have beliefs about what other people want,
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and what other people don't want, how much power other people have,
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how much those people could get in the way of whatever it is that you want.
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And they face limitations, constraints,
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they may be weak, they may be located in the wrong part of the world,
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they may be Einstein, stuck away farming
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someplace in a rural village in India not being noticed,
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as was the case for Ramanujan for a long time,
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a great mathematician but nobody noticed.
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03:12
Now who is rational?
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A lot of people are worried about what is rationality about?
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03:17
You know, what if people are rational?
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Mother Theresa, she was rational.
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Terrorists, they're rational.
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Pretty much everybody is rational.
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I think there are only two exceptions that I'm aware of --
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two-year-olds, they are not rational,
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they have very fickle preferences,
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they switch what they think all the time,
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03:39
and schizophrenics are probably not rational,
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but pretty much everybody else is rational.
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That is, they are just trying to do
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what they think is in their own best interest.
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03:51
Now in order to work out what people are going to do
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to pursue their interests,
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we have to think about who has influence in the world.
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If you're trying to influence corporations to change their behavior,
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with regard to producing pollutants,
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one approach, the common approach,
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is to exhort them to be better,
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to explain to them what damage they're doing to the planet.
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04:12
And many of you may have noticed that doesn't have
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as big an effect, as perhaps you would like it to have.
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But if you show them that it's in their interest,
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then they're responsive.
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So, we have to work out who influences problems.
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If we're looking at Iran, the president of the United States
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we would like to think, may have some influence --
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certainly the president in Iran has some influence --
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but we make a mistake if we just pay attention
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to the person at the top of the power ladder
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because that person doesn't know much about Iran,
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or about energy policy,
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or about health care,
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or about any particular policy.
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That person surrounds himself or herself with advisers.
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If we're talking about national security problems,
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maybe it's the Secretary of State,
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maybe it's the Secretary of Defense,
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the Director of National Intelligence,
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maybe the ambassador to the United Nations, or somebody else
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who they think is going to know more about the particular problem.
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05:09
But let's face it, the Secretary of State doesn't know much about Iran.
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The secretary of defense doesn't know much about Iran.
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05:15
Each of those people in turn
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05:18
has advisers who advise them,
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so they can advise the president.
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05:23
There are lots of people shaping decisions
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and so if we want to predict correctly
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we have to pay attention to everybody
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who is trying to shape the outcome,
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not just the people at the pinnacle
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of the decision-making pyramid.
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05:40
Unfortunately, a lot of times we don't do that.
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05:42
There's a good reason that we don't do that,
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05:44
and there's a good reason that using game theory and computers,
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we can overcome the limitation
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of just looking at a few people.
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05:52
Imagine a problem with just five decision-makers.
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Imagine for example
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that Sally over here,
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wants to know what Harry, and Jane,
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and George and Frank are thinking,
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and sends messages to those people.
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06:08
Sally's giving her opinion to them,
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and they're giving their opinion to Sally.
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06:13
But Sally also wants to know
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what Harry is saying to these three,
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and what they're saying to Harry.
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And Harry wants to know
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what each of those people are saying to each other, and so on,
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and Sally would like to know what Harry thinks those people are saying.
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06:28
That's a complicated problem; that's a lot to know.
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With five decision-makers
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there are a lot of linkages --
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120, as a matter of fact,
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if you remember your factorials.
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Five factorial is 120.
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06:42
Now you may be surprised to know
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that smart people can keep 120 things straight
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in their head.
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06:49
Suppose we double the number of influencers
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from five to 10.
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Does that mean we've doubled the number of pieces of information
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we need to know, from 120 to 240?
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06:59
No. How about 10 times?
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07:01
To 1,200? No.
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We've increased it to 3.6 million.
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Nobody can keep that straight in their head.
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07:09
But computers,
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they can. They don't need coffee breaks,
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they don't need vacations,
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they don't need to go to sleep at night,
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they don't ask for raises either.
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07:23
They can keep this information straight
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and that means that we can process the information.
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07:28
So I'm going to talk to you about how to process it,
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and I'm going to give you some examples out of Iran,
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07:33
and you're going to be wondering,
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"Why should we listen to this guy?
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Why should we believe what he's saying?"
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07:40
So I'm going to show you a factoid.
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This is an assessment by the Central Intelligence Agency
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of the percentage of time
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that the model I'm talking about
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is right in predicting things whose outcome is not yet known,
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when the experts who provided the data inputs
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got it wrong.
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08:00
That's not my claim, that's a CIA claim -- you can read it,
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it was declassified a while ago. You can read it in a volume edited by
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H. Bradford Westerfield, Yale University Press.
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So, what do we need to know
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in order to predict?
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You may be surprised to find out we don't need to know very much.
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We do need to know who has a stake
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in trying to shape the outcome of a decision.
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We need to know what they say they want,
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not what they want in their heart of hearts,
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not what they think they can get,
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but what they say they want, because that is a strategically chosen position,
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and we can work backwards from that
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to draw inferences about important features of their decision-making.
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We need to know how focused they are
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on the problem at hand.
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That is, how willing are they to drop what they're doing when the issue comes up,
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and attend to it instead of something else that's on their plate --
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how big a deal is it to them?
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And how much clout could they bring to bear
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if they chose to engage on the issue?
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If we know those things
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we can predict their behavior by assuming that everybody
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cares about two things on any decision.
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They care about the outcome. They'd like an outcome as close to
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what they are interested in as possible.
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They're careerists, they also care about getting credit --
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there's ego involvement,
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they want to be seen as important in shaping the outcome,
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or as important, if it's their druthers, to block an outcome.
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And so we have to figure out how they balance those two things.
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Different people trade off
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between standing by their outcome,
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faithfully holding to it, going down in a blaze of glory,
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or giving it up, putting their finger in the wind,
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and doing whatever they think is going to be a winning position.
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Most people fall in between, and if we can work out where they fall
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we can work out how to negotiate with them
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to change their behavior.
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So with just that little bit of input
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we can work out what the choices are that people have,
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what the chances are that they're willing to take,
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what they're after, what they value, what they want,
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and what they believe about other people.
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You might notice what we don't need to know:
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there's no history in here.
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How they got to where they are
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may be important in shaping the input information,
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but once we know where they are
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we're worried about where they're going to be headed in the future.
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How they got there turns out not to be terribly critical in predicting.
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I remind you of that 90 percent accuracy rate.
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10:33
So where are we going to get this information?
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We can get this information
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from the Internet, from The Economist,
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The Financial Times, The New York Times,
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U.S. News and World Report, lots of sources like that,
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or we can get it from asking experts
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who spend their lives studying places and problems,
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because those experts know this information.
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If they don't know, who are the people trying to influence the decision,
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how much clout do they have,
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how much they care about this issue, and what do they say they want,
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are they experts? That's what it means to be an expert,
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that's the basic stuff an expert needs to know.
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Alright, lets turn to Iran.
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Let me make three important predictions --
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you can check this out, time will tell.
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What is Iran going to do about its nuclear weapons program?
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How secure is the theocratic regime in Iran?
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What's its future?
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And everybody's best friend,
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Ahmadinejad. How are things going for him?
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How are things going to be working out for him in the next year or two?
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You take a look at this, this is not based on statistics.
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I want to be very clear here. I'm not projecting some past data into the future.
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I've taken inputs on positions and so forth,
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run it through a computer model
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that had simulated the dynamics of interaction,
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and these are the simulated dynamics,
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the predictions about the path of policy.
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So you can see here on the vertical axis,
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I haven't shown it all the way down to zero,
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there are lots of other options, but here I'm just showing you the prediction,
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so I've narrowed the scale.
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Up at the top of the axis, "Build the Bomb."
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At 130, we start somewhere above 130,
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between building a bomb, and making enough weapons-grade fuel
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so that you could build a bomb.
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That's where, according to my analyses,
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the Iranians were at the beginning of this year.
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And then the model makes predictions down the road.
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At 115 they would only produce enough weapons grade fuel
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to show that they know how, but they wouldn't build a weapon:
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they would build a research quantity.
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It would achieve some national pride,
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but not go ahead and build a weapon.
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And down at 100 they would build civilian nuclear energy,
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which is what they say is their objective.
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The yellow line shows us the most likely path.
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The yellow line includes an analysis
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of 87 decision makers in Iran,
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and a vast number of outside influencers
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trying to pressure Iran into changing its behavior,
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various players in the United States, and Egypt,
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and Saudi Arabia, and Russia, European Union,
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Japan, so on and so forth.
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The white line reproduces the analysis
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if the international environment
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just left Iran to make its own internal decisions,
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under its own domestic political pressures.
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That's not going to be happening,
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but you can see that the line comes down faster
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if they're not put under international pressure,
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if they're allowed to pursue their own devices.
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But in any event, by the end of this year,
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beginning of next year, we get to a stable equilibrium outcome.
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And that equilibrium is not what the United States would like,
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but it's probably an equilibrium that the United States can live with,
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and that a lot of others can live with.
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And that is that Iran will achieve that nationalist pride
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by making enough weapons-grade fuel, through research,
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so that they could show that they know how to make weapons-grade fuel,
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but not enough to actually build a bomb.
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How is this happening?
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Over here you can see this is the distribution
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of power in favor of civilian nuclear energy today,
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this is what that power block is predicted to be like
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by the late parts of 2010, early parts of 2011.
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Just about nobody supports research on weapons-grade fuel today,
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but by 2011 that gets to be a big block,
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and you put these two together, that's the controlling influence in Iran.
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Out here today, there are a bunch of people --
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Ahmadinejad for example --
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who would like not only to build a bomb,
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but test a bomb.
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That power disappears completely;
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nobody supports that by 2011.
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These guys are all shrinking,
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the power is all drifting out here,
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so the outcome is going to be the weapons-grade fuel.
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Who are the winners and who are the losers in Iran?
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Take a look at these guys, they're growing in power,
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and by the way, this was done a while ago
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before the current economic crisis,
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and that's probably going to get steeper.
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These folks are the moneyed interests in Iran,
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the bankers, the oil people, the bazaaries.
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They are growing in political clout,
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as the mullahs are isolating themselves --
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with the exception of one group of mullahs,
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who are not well known to Americans.
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That's this line here, growing in power,
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these are what the Iranians call the quietists.
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These are the Ayatollahs, mostly based in Qom,
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who have great clout in the religious community,
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have been quiet on politics and are going to be getting louder,
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because they see Iran going in an unhealthy direction,
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a direction contrary
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to what Khomeini had in mind.
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Here is Mr. Ahmadinejad.
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Two things to notice: he's getting weaker,
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and while he gets a lot of attention in the United States,
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he is not a major player in Iran.
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He is on the way down.
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OK, so I'd like you to take a little away from this.
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Everything is not predictable: the stock market
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is, at least for me, not predictable,
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but most complicated negotiations are predictable.
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Again, whether we're talking health policy, education,
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environment, energy,
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litigation, mergers,
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all of these are complicated problems
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that are predictable,
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that this sort of technology can be applied to.
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And the reason that being able to predict those things is important,
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is not just because you might run a hedge fund and make money off of it,
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but because if you can predict what people will do,
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you can engineer what they will do.
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And if you engineer what they do you can change the world,
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you can get a better result.
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I would like to leave you with one thought, which is
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for me, the dominant theme of this gathering,
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and is the dominant theme of this way of thinking about the world.
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When people say to you,
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"That's impossible,"
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you say back to them,
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"When you say 'That's impossible,'
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you're confused with,
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'I don't know how to do it.'"
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Thank you.
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(Applause)
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Chris Anderson: One question for you.
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That was fascinating.
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I love that you put it out there.
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I got very nervous halfway through the talk though,
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just panicking whether you'd included in your model, the possibility that
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putting this prediction out there might change the result.
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We've got 800 people in Tehran who watch TEDTalks.
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Bruce Bueno de Mesquita: I've thought about that,
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and since I've done a lot of work for the intelligence community,
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they've also pondered that.
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It would be a good thing if
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people paid more attention, took seriously,
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and engaged in the same sorts of calculations,
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because it would change things. But it would change things in two beneficial ways.
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It would hasten how quickly people arrive at an agreement,
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and so it would save everybody a lot of grief and time.
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And, it would arrive at an agreement that everybody was happy with,
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without having to manipulate them so much --
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which is basically what I do, I manipulate them.
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So it would be a good thing.
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CA: So you're kind of trying to say, "People of Iran, this is your destiny, lets go there."
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BBM: Well, people of Iran, this is what many of you are going to evolve to want,
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and we could get there a lot sooner,
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and you would suffer a lot less trouble from economic sanctions,
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and we would suffer a lot less fear of the use of military force on our end,
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and the world would be a better place.
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CA: Here's hoping they hear it that way. Thank you very much Bruce.
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BBM: Thank you.
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(Applause)
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