Bruce Bueno de Mesquita predicts Iran's future

141,700 views ・ 2009-04-07

TED


請雙擊下方英文字幕播放視頻。

譯者: chufung dou 審譯者: Shelley Krishna Tsang
00:18
What I'm going to try to do is explain to you
0
18330
3000
我將向各位說明
00:21
quickly how to predict,
1
21330
2000
如何預測,
00:23
and illustrate it with some predictions
2
23330
2000
並用一些實例說明,
00:25
about what Iran is going to do in the next couple of years.
3
25330
5000
關於伊朗在未來一兩年將會怎麼做,
00:30
In order to predict effectively,
4
30330
3000
為了預測正確
00:33
we need to use science.
5
33330
3000
我們需要運用科學
00:36
And the reason that we need to use science
6
36330
3000
需要運用科學的原因,
00:39
is because then we can reproduce what we're doing;
7
39330
2000
是因為這樣才可以重複驗證我們做的,
00:41
it's not just wisdom or guesswork.
8
41330
3000
不只是靠智慧或是猜測。
00:44
And if we can predict,
9
44330
3000
如果我們可以預測,
00:47
then we can engineer the future.
10
47330
2000
那麼我們就可以掌握未來,
00:49
So if you are concerned to influence energy policy,
11
49330
4000
所以如果你想影響能源政策,
00:53
or you are concerned to influence national security policy,
12
53330
5000
或你想影響國家安全政策,
00:58
or health policy, or education,
13
58330
3000
或是健保,或教育,
01:01
science -- and a particular branch of science -- is a way to do it,
14
61330
4000
科學,與科學中特別的一支,是正確的方法,
01:05
not the way we've been doing it,
15
65330
2000
與我們從前的方法不同,
01:07
which is seat-of-the-pants wisdom.
16
67330
2000
從前用的是憑感覺經驗這種智慧,
01:09
Now before I get into how to do it
17
69330
2000
現在,在我說明如何做它之前,
01:11
let me give you a little truth in advertising,
18
71330
3000
先告訴你們一些事實,
01:14
because I'm not engaged in the business of magic.
19
74330
3000
因為我做的不是魔術,
01:17
There are lots of thing that the approach I take can predict,
20
77330
4000
我用的方法可以預測許多事情,
01:21
and there are some that it can't.
21
81330
2000
但有些事沒有辦法,
01:23
It can predict complex negotiations
22
83330
3000
它可以預測複雜的談判,
01:26
or situations involving coercion --
23
86330
3000
或有用到威脅手段的情形,
01:29
that is in essence everything that has to do with politics,
24
89330
4000
幾乎可以應用於任何與政治有關的事情,
01:33
much of what has to do with business,
25
93330
2000
也可以用在多數與商業有關的事上,
01:35
but sorry, if you're looking to speculate in the stock market,
26
95330
6000
但很抱歉,如果你想在股票市場投機,
01:41
I don't predict stock markets -- OK,
27
101330
2000
我不預測股票市場--嗯,
01:43
it's not going up any time really soon.
28
103330
3000
它不會在短期內上漲,
01:46
But I'm not engaged in doing that.
29
106330
3000
我不從事這種預測,
01:49
I'm not engaged in predicting random number generators.
30
109330
3000
我不預測會出現什麼隨機數目,
01:52
I actually get phone calls from people
31
112330
2000
真的有人打電話問我,
01:54
who want to know what lottery numbers are going to win.
32
114330
3000
想知道什麼樂透數字會中獎?
01:57
I don't have a clue.
33
117330
3000
我毫無線索,
02:00
I engage in the use of game theory, game theory is a branch of mathematics
34
120330
4000
我採用的是博弈理論,它是數學的一支,
02:04
and that means, sorry, that even in the study of politics,
35
124330
4000
就是說,就是在政治研究當中,
02:08
math has come into the picture.
36
128330
3000
數學也來軋一腳,
02:11
We can no longer pretend that we just speculate about politics,
37
131330
4000
我們對政治不能再只靠猜測,
02:15
we need to look at this in a rigorous way.
38
135330
3000
我們該用嚴肅的方法看待它,
02:18
Now, what is game theory about?
39
138330
3000
那麼什麼是博弈理論?
02:21
It assumes that people are looking out for what's good for them.
40
141330
5000
它假設人是追尋他們的利益,
02:26
That doesn't seem terribly shocking --
41
146330
2000
這看來並不很離譜--
02:28
although it's controversial for a lot of people --
42
148330
2000
雖然對不少人這是有得爭議的--
02:30
that we are self-interested.
43
150330
4000
就是我們是追求自利的,
02:34
In order to look out for what's best for them
44
154330
2000
為了追求他們最大的利益,
02:36
or what they think is best for them,
45
156330
2000
或者他們認為什麼是對他們最好的,
02:38
people have values -- they identify what they want, and what they don't want.
46
158330
4000
人們有價值觀--他們認清自己想要的是什麼,不想要的是什麼,
02:42
And they have beliefs about what other people want,
47
162330
3000
也相信別人想要的是什麼,
02:45
and what other people don't want, how much power other people have,
48
165330
3000
還有別人不想要什麼,他們有多大的權力,
02:48
how much those people could get in the way of whatever it is that you want.
49
168330
4000
還有你算計的他們最多可以得到多少
02:52
And they face limitations, constraints,
50
172330
4000
以及他們面對的限制,
02:56
they may be weak, they may be located in the wrong part of the world,
51
176330
3000
他們可能柔弱,可能處於這世界不對的地方,
02:59
they may be Einstein, stuck away farming
52
179330
3000
他們也可能像愛因斯坦那樣有本事,但困在農村,
03:02
someplace in a rural village in India not being noticed,
53
182330
4000
住在印度一個鄉下,沒人注意到,
03:06
as was the case for Ramanujan for a long time,
54
186330
3000
就像Ramanujan那樣很長一段時間,
03:09
a great mathematician but nobody noticed.
55
189330
3000
一位了不起的數學家,但沒人注意到,
03:12
Now who is rational?
56
192330
2000
那麼誰是理性的呢?
03:14
A lot of people are worried about what is rationality about?
57
194330
3000
許多人擔心理性是什麼?
03:17
You know, what if people are rational?
58
197330
2000
人們都是理性的,
03:19
Mother Theresa, she was rational.
59
199330
3000
德瑞沙修女,她是理性的,
03:22
Terrorists, they're rational.
60
202330
4000
恐怖分子,他們也是理性的,
03:26
Pretty much everybody is rational.
61
206330
3000
一般來說每個人都是理性的,
03:29
I think there are only two exceptions that I'm aware of --
62
209330
3000
我所知的例外只有兩種情形--
03:32
two-year-olds, they are not rational,
63
212330
2000
兩歲的小孩,他們不是理性的,
03:34
they have very fickle preferences,
64
214330
3000
他們想要的變來變去,
03:37
they switch what they think all the time,
65
217330
2000
他們的想法不時的改變,
03:39
and schizophrenics are probably not rational,
66
219330
3000
還有精神分裂病患者大概也不理性,
03:42
but pretty much everybody else is rational.
67
222330
2000
但其他多數人都是理性的,
03:44
That is, they are just trying to do
68
224330
2000
就是說,他們只想做
03:46
what they think is in their own best interest.
69
226330
5000
他們認為對他們最有利的事。
03:51
Now in order to work out what people are going to do
70
231330
2000
為了推算出人們下一步會怎麼做
03:53
to pursue their interests,
71
233330
2000
以追求他們的利益,
03:55
we have to think about who has influence in the world.
72
235330
2000
我們必須考慮這世界上誰有影響力,
03:57
If you're trying to influence corporations to change their behavior,
73
237330
5000
如果你想影響公司改變它們的行為,
04:02
with regard to producing pollutants,
74
242330
3000
關於產生污染的問題,
04:05
one approach, the common approach,
75
245330
2000
一個做法,較通常的做法,
04:07
is to exhort them to be better,
76
247330
2000
是勸告他們改善,
04:09
to explain to them what damage they're doing to the planet.
77
249330
3000
讓他們知道他們 對地球造成怎樣的傷害,,
04:12
And many of you may have noticed that doesn't have
78
252330
2000
你們可能知道這效果有限,
04:14
as big an effect, as perhaps you would like it to have.
79
254330
4000
不如你們期望的那麼有用,
04:18
But if you show them that it's in their interest,
80
258330
3000
但如果你能顯示這樣對他們有利,
04:21
then they're responsive.
81
261330
2000
他們就會有反應。
04:23
So, we have to work out who influences problems.
82
263330
3000
所以,我們必須找出誰有影響力,
04:26
If we're looking at Iran, the president of the United States
83
266330
2000
例如看伊朗問題,美國總統
04:28
we would like to think, may have some influence --
84
268330
3000
我們認為,可能有些影響力--
04:31
certainly the president in Iran has some influence --
85
271330
4000
自然,伊朗總統有些影響力--
04:35
but we make a mistake if we just pay attention
86
275330
3000
但我們可能犯錯,如果只注意
04:38
to the person at the top of the power ladder
87
278330
3000
在權力階梯頂端的人,
04:41
because that person doesn't know much about Iran,
88
281330
3000
因為那個人對伊朗所知不多,
04:44
or about energy policy,
89
284330
2000
或關於能源政策,
04:46
or about health care,
90
286330
2000
或關於健康保險,
04:48
or about any particular policy.
91
288330
2000
或任何特定的政策,
04:50
That person surrounds himself or herself with advisers.
92
290330
5000
決策者周圍有許多顧問。
04:55
If we're talking about national security problems,
93
295330
2000
如果我們談的是國家安全問題,
04:57
maybe it's the Secretary of State,
94
297330
2000
那麼可能 是國務卿
04:59
maybe it's the Secretary of Defense,
95
299330
2000
也許是國防部長,
05:01
the Director of National Intelligence,
96
301330
2000
或情報局長,
05:03
maybe the ambassador to the United Nations, or somebody else
97
303330
2000
或駐聯合國大使,或其他的
05:05
who they think is going to know more about the particular problem.
98
305330
4000
他們認為對某個問題知道較多的人,
05:09
But let's face it, the Secretary of State doesn't know much about Iran.
99
309330
3000
讓我們想想看,國務卿對伊朗所知不多,
05:12
The secretary of defense doesn't know much about Iran.
100
312330
3000
國防部長也不是伊朗問題專家。
05:15
Each of those people in turn
101
315330
3000
他們每個人
05:18
has advisers who advise them,
102
318330
2000
都各有自己的顧問,
05:20
so they can advise the president.
103
320330
3000
因此他們可以對總統提意見。
05:23
There are lots of people shaping decisions
104
323330
3000
這是許多人共同影響決策的,
05:26
and so if we want to predict correctly
105
326330
2000
所以如果我們想正確的預測,
05:28
we have to pay attention to everybody
106
328330
3000
就需注意到每一個人,
05:31
who is trying to shape the outcome,
107
331330
2000
每個對結果有影響的人,
05:33
not just the people at the pinnacle
108
333330
3000
而不是只在尖端的人,
05:36
of the decision-making pyramid.
109
336330
4000
決策金字塔的,
05:40
Unfortunately, a lot of times we don't do that.
110
340330
2000
不幸的是,常常我們不是這樣做。
05:42
There's a good reason that we don't do that,
111
342330
2000
不這樣做是有原因的,
05:44
and there's a good reason that using game theory and computers,
112
344330
3000
使用博弈理論與電腦是有很好的理由,
05:47
we can overcome the limitation
113
347330
3000
我們可以超越限制,
05:50
of just looking at a few people.
114
350330
2000
不是只看少數幾個人。
05:52
Imagine a problem with just five decision-makers.
115
352330
4000
假設一個問題只涉及五名決策人士,
05:56
Imagine for example
116
356330
2000
想像一下,
05:58
that Sally over here,
117
358330
2000
這裡是Sally,
06:00
wants to know what Harry, and Jane,
118
360330
3000
她想知道Harry,Jane
06:03
and George and Frank are thinking,
119
363330
3000
George,Frank怎麼想,
06:06
and sends messages to those people.
120
366330
2000
並把意見傳達給他們,
06:08
Sally's giving her opinion to them,
121
368330
2000
Sally把她的看法傳給他們,
06:10
and they're giving their opinion to Sally.
122
370330
3000
他們也把自己的意見傳給Sally。
06:13
But Sally also wants to know
123
373330
2000
但Sally也想知道
06:15
what Harry is saying to these three,
124
375330
3000
Harry對其他三人說了什麼,
06:18
and what they're saying to Harry.
125
378330
2000
以及他們對Harry說了什麼,
06:20
And Harry wants to know
126
380330
2000
而Harry又想知道
06:22
what each of those people are saying to each other, and so on,
127
382330
3000
其他每個人間互相說了什麼,
06:25
and Sally would like to know what Harry thinks those people are saying.
128
385330
3000
Sally想知道Harry對其他人說法的感覺如何。
06:28
That's a complicated problem; that's a lot to know.
129
388330
3000
這是個複雜的問題,需要知道的很多。
06:31
With five decision-makers
130
391330
3000
當有五名決策人士時
06:34
there are a lot of linkages --
131
394330
2000
就有許多的關係聯繫--
06:36
120, as a matter of fact,
132
396330
2000
實際上是120條連線,
06:38
if you remember your factorials.
133
398330
2000
如果你記得代數裡的階乘關係,
06:40
Five factorial is 120.
134
400330
2000
5的階乘是120,
06:42
Now you may be surprised to know
135
402330
2000
現在你可能驚異的發現
06:44
that smart people can keep 120 things straight
136
404330
3000
聰明人可以清楚記得120件事
06:47
in their head.
137
407330
2000
在他們的腦中,
06:49
Suppose we double the number of influencers
138
409330
2000
假如我們把有影響的人數加倍,
06:51
from five to 10.
139
411330
2000
從5變成10,
06:53
Does that mean we've doubled the number of pieces of information
140
413330
4000
是資訊的數目也加倍嗎?
06:57
we need to know, from 120 to 240?
141
417330
2000
我們需要知道的,從120 變成240嗎 ?
06:59
No. How about 10 times?
142
419330
2000
不是,那是10倍嗎?
07:01
To 1,200? No.
143
421330
3000
成為1200?不是,
07:04
We've increased it to 3.6 million.
144
424330
3000
我們需要增加到360萬,
07:07
Nobody can keep that straight in their head.
145
427330
2000
沒有人的腦袋可以記得這麼多,
07:09
But computers,
146
429330
3000
但是電腦,
07:12
they can. They don't need coffee breaks,
147
432330
3000
它們可以,他們不需要休息喝咖啡,
07:15
they don't need vacations,
148
435330
3000
它們不需要休假,
07:18
they don't need to go to sleep at night,
149
438330
2000
它們不需要在晚上睡覺,
07:20
they don't ask for raises either.
150
440330
3000
它們也不要求加薪,
07:23
They can keep this information straight
151
443330
2000
它們能夠保持資訊正確,
07:25
and that means that we can process the information.
152
445330
3000
這表示我們可以處理這些資訊,
07:28
So I'm going to talk to you about how to process it,
153
448330
2000
我將談談如何處理它,
07:30
and I'm going to give you some examples out of Iran,
154
450330
3000
我將以伊朗為例,
07:33
and you're going to be wondering,
155
453330
2000
你們也許會奇怪,
07:35
"Why should we listen to this guy?
156
455330
2000
“為什麼要聽這個人的?
07:37
Why should we believe what he's saying?"
157
457330
3000
我們為什麼要相信他所說的?”
07:40
So I'm going to show you a factoid.
158
460330
4000
我給你們看這證詞,
07:44
This is an assessment by the Central Intelligence Agency
159
464330
3000
這是一個中央情報局的評估報告,
07:47
of the percentage of time
160
467330
2000
是正確的百分比
07:49
that the model I'm talking about
161
469330
2000
我將談的這個模型
07:51
is right in predicting things whose outcome is not yet known,
162
471330
3000
在預測還未發生的事情時,
07:54
when the experts who provided the data inputs
163
474330
4000
在提供數據的專家
07:58
got it wrong.
164
478330
2000
預測錯誤時,
08:00
That's not my claim, that's a CIA claim -- you can read it,
165
480330
3000
這不是我說的,是中情局說的--你們可以讀它,
08:03
it was declassified a while ago. You can read it in a volume edited by
166
483330
3000
不久前它才解密,你們可以在
08:06
H. Bradford Westerfield, Yale University Press.
167
486330
3000
威斯特菲編輯,耶魯大學出版這書上看到,
08:09
So, what do we need to know
168
489330
2000
我們需要知道什麼,
08:11
in order to predict?
169
491330
2000
才可以預測?
08:13
You may be surprised to find out we don't need to know very much.
170
493330
3000
你也許會因發現我們不需要知道很多而嚇一跳,
08:16
We do need to know who has a stake
171
496330
3000
我們需要知道誰有利害關係,
08:19
in trying to shape the outcome of a decision.
172
499330
5000
要試圖影響一個決定的結果。
08:24
We need to know what they say they want,
173
504330
3000
我們需要知道他們說他們想要什麼,
08:27
not what they want in their heart of hearts,
174
507330
3000
而不是他們心中想要什麼,
08:30
not what they think they can get,
175
510330
2000
不是他們認為他們可以得到什麼,
08:32
but what they say they want, because that is a strategically chosen position,
176
512330
3000
而是他們說他們想要的是什麼,因為這是策略性選擇的位置,
08:35
and we can work backwards from that
177
515330
2000
我們可以從這倒退推算,
08:37
to draw inferences about important features of their decision-making.
178
517330
4000
由他們決策時的重要特質去推理。
08:41
We need to know how focused they are
179
521330
2000
我們需要知道他們有多關注,
08:43
on the problem at hand.
180
523330
2000
在手上的問題。
08:45
That is, how willing are they to drop what they're doing when the issue comes up,
181
525330
3000
就是在問題發生時,他們有多願意放下手上正在做的事,
08:48
and attend to it instead of something else that's on their plate --
182
528330
4000
會關注這件事而不是身邊其他的事--
08:52
how big a deal is it to them?
183
532330
2000
這事對他們有多重要?
08:54
And how much clout could they bring to bear
184
534330
3000
他們有多大的能耐可以影響決策,
08:57
if they chose to engage on the issue?
185
537330
5000
如果他們選擇關注這問題,
09:02
If we know those things
186
542330
2000
如果我們有這些資訊,
09:04
we can predict their behavior by assuming that everybody
187
544330
3000
我們就可以預測他們的行為,
09:07
cares about two things on any decision.
188
547330
5000
假設每個人在任何決定上關心兩件事,
09:12
They care about the outcome. They'd like an outcome as close to
189
552330
2000
他們關心結果,他們希望結果與他們
09:14
what they are interested in as possible.
190
554330
3000
的利益盡量的接近,
09:17
They're careerists, they also care about getting credit --
191
557330
3000
他們有自己的職志,關心信譽的建立,
09:20
there's ego involvement,
192
560330
2000
這裡有個人自我
09:22
they want to be seen as important in shaping the outcome,
193
562330
4000
他們希望被認為在形成結果上有重要性,
09:26
or as important, if it's their druthers, to block an outcome.
194
566330
5000
或者也很重要的,是他們的反對而阻止了某些結果的發生,
09:31
And so we have to figure out how they balance those two things.
195
571330
3000
所以我們需要辨認清楚他們是如何平衡那兩件事的,
09:34
Different people trade off
196
574330
2000
這因人而異,
09:36
between standing by their outcome,
197
576330
3000
人們有不同的立場不同的追求,
09:39
faithfully holding to it, going down in a blaze of glory,
198
579330
3000
有的人堅持,追求榮耀,
09:42
or giving it up, putting their finger in the wind,
199
582330
3000
或者放棄,見風使舵,
09:45
and doing whatever they think is going to be a winning position.
200
585330
3000
而做任何他們認為最有利的,
09:48
Most people fall in between, and if we can work out where they fall
201
588330
3000
多數人介於兩者之間,如果我們能夠認清他們處於那裡,
09:51
we can work out how to negotiate with them
202
591330
2000
我們就可以認清如何與他們談判,
09:53
to change their behavior.
203
593330
2000
以改變他們的行為。
09:55
So with just that little bit of input
204
595330
3000
所以只要這麼一點輸入的資訊,
09:58
we can work out what the choices are that people have,
205
598330
3000
我們就能知道別的人有些什麼可能的選擇,
10:01
what the chances are that they're willing to take,
206
601330
3000
他們願意接受的機會有多大,
10:04
what they're after, what they value, what they want,
207
604330
3000
他們追求的是什麼,他們的價值觀如何,他們期望什麼,
10:07
and what they believe about other people.
208
607330
3000
他們眼中的別人是如何,
10:10
You might notice what we don't need to know:
209
610330
4000
你也許也注意到一些我們不需要知道的,
10:14
there's no history in here.
210
614330
2000
這裡不需要歷史記錄,
10:16
How they got to where they are
211
616330
2000
關於他們是如何成為現在這樣的,
10:18
may be important in shaping the input information,
212
618330
2000
對如何形成所輸入的資訊可能有重要性,
10:20
but once we know where they are
213
620330
2000
但一旦我們知道他們現狀是如何後,
10:22
we're worried about where they're going to be headed in the future.
214
622330
3000
我們就會想知道他們未來會朝那個方向發展,
10:25
How they got there turns out not to be terribly critical in predicting.
215
625330
4000
他們如何變成現狀的,在預測上就不是這麼重要,
10:29
I remind you of that 90 percent accuracy rate.
216
629330
4000
提醒你們這是90%的準確性,
10:33
So where are we going to get this information?
217
633330
2000
所以我們要從那裡獲得這些資訊?
10:35
We can get this information
218
635330
3000
我們可以獲得這些資訊,
10:38
from the Internet, from The Economist,
219
638330
3000
從互聯網,從《經濟學人》雜誌、
10:41
The Financial Times, The New York Times,
220
641330
3000
從《金融時報》、《紐約時報》,
10:44
U.S. News and World Report, lots of sources like that,
221
644330
3000
《美國新聞》與《世界報導》,還有很多類似的來源,
10:47
or we can get it from asking experts
222
647330
2000
或者可以從請教專家而得到,
10:49
who spend their lives studying places and problems,
223
649330
3000
這些專家長期研究各地方的問題,
10:52
because those experts know this information.
224
652330
3000
因為這些專家知道這些資訊,
10:55
If they don't know, who are the people trying to influence the decision,
225
655330
3000
如果他們不知道,那麼是誰會能影響決策,
10:58
how much clout do they have,
226
658330
2000
他們有多大的影響力,
11:00
how much they care about this issue, and what do they say they want,
227
660330
3000
他們對這問題有多關心,他們對所希望的怎麼說,
11:03
are they experts? That's what it means to be an expert,
228
663330
3000
他們是專家嗎?專家應該知道這些,
11:06
that's the basic stuff an expert needs to know.
229
666330
4000
那是一個專家需要知道的基本資料,
11:10
Alright, lets turn to Iran.
230
670330
2000
好,讓我們看伊朗問題,
11:12
Let me make three important predictions --
231
672330
3000
我在這做三個重要的預測--
11:15
you can check this out, time will tell.
232
675330
3000
你可以檢驗這些預測的正確性,時間會證明,
11:18
What is Iran going to do about its nuclear weapons program?
233
678330
8000
伊朗的核武計劃將來會如何?
11:26
How secure is the theocratic regime in Iran?
234
686330
3000
伊朗的神權政府是多穩定?
11:29
What's its future?
235
689330
2000
未來如何?
11:31
And everybody's best friend,
236
691330
3000
還有大家的好朋友,
11:34
Ahmadinejad. How are things going for him?
237
694330
3000
艾瑪迪-內賈德,他將來會如何?
11:37
How are things going to be working out for him in the next year or two?
238
697330
6000
在未來一兩年他的地位會怎樣演變?
11:43
You take a look at this, this is not based on statistics.
239
703330
3000
你看這裡,這不是依據統計,
11:46
I want to be very clear here. I'm not projecting some past data into the future.
240
706330
5000
在這裡我要說清楚,我不是以過去的數據延伸來推測未來,
11:51
I've taken inputs on positions and so forth,
241
711330
3000
我是以各個人的立場為輸入資料,
11:54
run it through a computer model
242
714330
2000
經電腦模型運算,
11:56
that had simulated the dynamics of interaction,
243
716330
3000
模擬動態的相互作用,
11:59
and these are the simulated dynamics,
244
719330
2000
這些經過模擬的動態,
12:01
the predictions about the path of policy.
245
721330
3000
就是政策變化過程的預測,
12:04
So you can see here on the vertical axis,
246
724330
3000
所以你可以在縱軸上看到,
12:07
I haven't shown it all the way down to zero,
247
727330
2000
我沒有顯示它一直向下走到零
12:09
there are lots of other options, but here I'm just showing you the prediction,
248
729330
3000
有很多可能的選項,但這裡我只向各位展示預測,
12:12
so I've narrowed the scale.
249
732330
2000
我將比例縮窄,
12:14
Up at the top of the axis, "Build the Bomb."
250
734330
3000
在軸線的頂端,是要建造核彈,
12:17
At 130, we start somewhere above 130,
251
737330
4000
那是130,我們從高於130開始,
12:21
between building a bomb, and making enough weapons-grade fuel
252
741330
3000
在建造核彈與製造足夠的核武等級燃料之間,
12:24
so that you could build a bomb.
253
744330
2000
這樣就可以建造核彈,
12:26
That's where, according to my analyses,
254
746330
3000
這是依據我的分析,
12:29
the Iranians were at the beginning of this year.
255
749330
3000
伊朗今年初的位置,
12:32
And then the model makes predictions down the road.
256
752330
3000
然後這模型預測後來的變化,
12:35
At 115 they would only produce enough weapons grade fuel
257
755330
4000
在115表示伊朗能生產足夠的核彈等級的燃料,
12:39
to show that they know how, but they wouldn't build a weapon:
258
759330
2000
展現他們有此能力,但不去建造武器,
12:41
they would build a research quantity.
259
761330
2000
他們只建立了足夠研究的數量,
12:43
It would achieve some national pride,
260
763330
2000
達到國家榮譽的程度,
12:45
but not go ahead and build a weapon.
261
765330
3000
但不再往前建造武器,
12:48
And down at 100 they would build civilian nuclear energy,
262
768330
2000
到100表示他們建立民生用的核能發電,
12:50
which is what they say is their objective.
263
770330
4000
這是他們所宣稱的目標,
12:54
The yellow line shows us the most likely path.
264
774330
3000
這黃線代表最可能的發展路徑,
12:57
The yellow line includes an analysis
265
777330
1000
這黃線包含了分析
12:58
of 87 decision makers in Iran,
266
778330
3000
87名伊朗的決策人士,
13:01
and a vast number of outside influencers
267
781330
3000
以及大量的外部有力人士
13:04
trying to pressure Iran into changing its behavior,
268
784330
3000
他們對伊朗施壓 要改變它的行為,
13:07
various players in the United States, and Egypt,
269
787330
3000
許多在美國以及埃及的人士,
13:10
and Saudi Arabia, and Russia, European Union,
270
790330
2000
還有沙烏地阿拉伯、蘇俄、歐盟、
13:12
Japan, so on and so forth.
271
792330
2000
日本,等等
13:14
The white line reproduces the analysis
272
794330
4000
這白線是再一次的分析,
13:18
if the international environment
273
798330
2000
假如國際環境
13:20
just left Iran to make its own internal decisions,
274
800330
3000
讓伊朗自己內部做決定,
13:23
under its own domestic political pressures.
275
803330
2000
在它自己國內的政治壓力下--
13:25
That's not going to be happening,
276
805330
2000
那是不會發生的--
13:27
but you can see that the line comes down faster
277
807330
4000
但你能看到這條線下降得快一些,
13:31
if they're not put under international pressure,
278
811330
3000
如果沒有國際壓力,
13:34
if they're allowed to pursue their own devices.
279
814330
2000
如果他們能夠以自己的方式追求,
13:36
But in any event, by the end of this year,
280
816330
3000
但任何情況下,到今年底,
13:39
beginning of next year, we get to a stable equilibrium outcome.
281
819330
3000
從明年開始,我們會達到平衡穩定的結果,
13:42
And that equilibrium is not what the United States would like,
282
822330
4000
這平衡點不是美國所盼望的,
13:46
but it's probably an equilibrium that the United States can live with,
283
826330
3000
但可能是美國能夠接受的平衡狀態,
13:49
and that a lot of others can live with.
284
829330
2000
還有很多其他國家也可以接受,
13:51
And that is that Iran will achieve that nationalist pride
285
831330
4000
那是伊朗能夠達成國家榮譽的程度,
13:55
by making enough weapons-grade fuel, through research,
286
835330
4000
並經由研究而製作出足夠的武器等級燃料,
13:59
so that they could show that they know how to make weapons-grade fuel,
287
839330
4000
這樣他們可以炫耀他們知道如何製造武器等級的燃料,
14:03
but not enough to actually build a bomb.
288
843330
5000
但不足以實際製造核彈,
14:08
How is this happening?
289
848330
2000
這怎麼發生的?
14:10
Over here you can see this is the distribution
290
850330
4000
這裡你可以看到這是權利的分配
14:14
of power in favor of civilian nuclear energy today,
291
854330
5000
它有利於今天民生用途的核能發電,
14:19
this is what that power block is predicted to be like
292
859330
3000
這是依據權利分配而預測出來的,
14:22
by the late parts of 2010, early parts of 2011.
293
862330
6000
在2010年底2011年初,
14:28
Just about nobody supports research on weapons-grade fuel today,
294
868330
4000
還沒有人支持武器等級核燃料的研究,
14:32
but by 2011 that gets to be a big block,
295
872330
3000
但到2011年,那成為很大的力量,
14:35
and you put these two together, that's the controlling influence in Iran.
296
875330
4000
你把這兩個加在一起,對伊朗有控制性的影響力,
14:39
Out here today, there are a bunch of people --
297
879330
3000
今天,有許多人--
14:42
Ahmadinejad for example --
298
882330
2000
像艾瑪迪內賈德--
14:44
who would like not only to build a bomb,
299
884330
2000
他不僅希望建造核彈,
14:46
but test a bomb.
300
886330
2000
還測試這炸彈,
14:48
That power disappears completely;
301
888330
2000
這個力量完全消失了,
14:50
nobody supports that by 2011.
302
890330
3000
到2011年已經沒人支持這觀點。
14:53
These guys are all shrinking,
303
893330
2000
這群人數在萎縮,
14:55
the power is all drifting out here,
304
895330
3000
權力流到這邊,
14:58
so the outcome is going to be the weapons-grade fuel.
305
898330
3000
所以結果是武器等級的燃料,
15:01
Who are the winners and who are the losers in Iran?
306
901330
3000
誰是伊朗的贏家與輸家呢?
15:04
Take a look at these guys, they're growing in power,
307
904330
3000
看這些人,他們的權力在增加,
15:07
and by the way, this was done a while ago
308
907330
3000
順便說一下,這是不久前做的,
15:10
before the current economic crisis,
309
910330
2000
是在現在這經濟危機之前,
15:12
and that's probably going to get steeper.
310
912330
2000
現在可能會更為傾斜,
15:14
These folks are the moneyed interests in Iran,
311
914330
2000
這些人是伊朗有權勢的人,
15:16
the bankers, the oil people, the bazaaries.
312
916330
4000
銀行家,油人,商家,
15:20
They are growing in political clout,
313
920330
3000
他們的政治影響力都在成長,
15:23
as the mullahs are isolating themselves --
314
923330
3000
在穆斯林神職人員自我隔絕時--
15:26
with the exception of one group of mullahs,
315
926330
2000
除了有一群教士外,
15:28
who are not well known to Americans.
316
928330
2000
美國人一般不知道他們,
15:30
That's this line here, growing in power,
317
930330
2000
只有他們的權力在擴張,
15:32
these are what the Iranians call the quietists.
318
932330
4000
伊朗人稱他們為Quietists教派,
15:36
These are the Ayatollahs, mostly based in Qom,
319
936330
3000
他們被稱為阿亞圖拉,主要存在於庫姆這地區,
15:39
who have great clout in the religious community,
320
939330
4000
他們在宗教圈裡很有影響力,
15:43
have been quiet on politics and are going to be getting louder,
321
943330
3000
以往對政治沉默,現在聲音愈來愈大,
15:46
because they see Iran going in an unhealthy direction,
322
946330
2000
因為他們覺得伊朗走向不健康的方向,
15:48
a direction contrary
323
948330
2000
一個反方向
15:50
to what Khomeini had in mind.
324
950330
4000
與柯梅尼心中希望的。
15:54
Here is Mr. Ahmadinejad.
325
954330
2000
這位是艾馬迪內賈德總統,
15:56
Two things to notice: he's getting weaker,
326
956330
3000
兩件事值得注意,他變弱了,
15:59
and while he gets a lot of attention in the United States,
327
959330
2000
當他在美國受到許多注意時,
16:01
he is not a major player in Iran.
328
961330
2000
他在伊朗卻不是很重要的人,
16:03
He is on the way down.
329
963330
2000
他在走下坡,
16:05
OK, so I'd like you to take a little away from this.
330
965330
4000
好的,我要你們注意力從這移開一下,
16:09
Everything is not predictable: the stock market
331
969330
2000
不是所有事情都能預測,股票市場
16:11
is, at least for me, not predictable,
332
971330
3000
至少對我是不能預測的,
16:14
but most complicated negotiations are predictable.
333
974330
5000
但多數複雜的談判是可以預測的,
16:19
Again, whether we're talking health policy, education,
334
979330
4000
不管是談健保政策、教育、
16:23
environment, energy,
335
983330
3000
環境、能源、
16:26
litigation, mergers,
336
986330
2000
訴訟、併購,
16:28
all of these are complicated problems
337
988330
2000
這些都是複雜的問題,
16:30
that are predictable,
338
990330
2000
它們是可以預測的,
16:32
that this sort of technology can be applied to.
339
992330
4000
可以應用這類的技術,
16:36
And the reason that being able to predict those things is important,
340
996330
5000
而能夠預測這些事情的原因是重要的,
16:41
is not just because you might run a hedge fund and make money off of it,
341
1001330
3000
不是因為你可能經營一個避險基金,要從它賺錢,
16:44
but because if you can predict what people will do,
342
1004330
3000
而是因為假如你能夠預測人們將怎麼做,
16:47
you can engineer what they will do.
343
1007330
3000
你就能夠控制他們將做什麼,
16:50
And if you engineer what they do you can change the world,
344
1010330
2000
如果你能控制他們要做什麼,你就能改變這世界,
16:52
you can get a better result.
345
1012330
2000
你可能得到較好的結果,
16:54
I would like to leave you with one thought, which is
346
1014330
3000
我想留個問題給你們思考,
16:57
for me, the dominant theme of this gathering,
347
1017330
5000
對我,這聚會的重要議題,
17:02
and is the dominant theme of this way of thinking about the world.
348
1022330
3000
也是這樣思考世界問題的主要論點就是,
17:05
When people say to you,
349
1025330
3000
當人們對你說,
17:08
"That's impossible,"
350
1028330
2000
“那個不可能,”
17:10
you say back to them,
351
1030330
2000
你回應說,
17:12
"When you say 'That's impossible,'
352
1032330
2000
“當你說‘那個不可能,’
17:14
you're confused with,
353
1034330
2000
你真的意思是,
17:16
'I don't know how to do it.'"
354
1036330
3000
”我不知道怎麼做“
17:19
Thank you.
355
1039330
2000
謝謝
17:21
(Applause)
356
1041330
4000
(掌聲)
17:25
Chris Anderson: One question for you.
357
1045330
2000
安德森:請教個問題,
17:27
That was fascinating.
358
1047330
3000
這個很棒,
17:30
I love that you put it out there.
359
1050330
3000
很高興你提出來,
17:33
I got very nervous halfway through the talk though,
360
1053330
2000
但聽講到一半時,我變得緊張,
17:35
just panicking whether you'd included in your model, the possibility that
361
1055330
3000
不知在你的模型中,會包含可能性
17:38
putting this prediction out there might change the result.
362
1058330
4000
做這些預測可能改變結果,
17:42
We've got 800 people in Tehran who watch TEDTalks.
363
1062330
3000
我們在德黑蘭有800人觀看這演講,
17:45
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita: I've thought about that,
364
1065330
2000
我想到這個,
17:47
and since I've done a lot of work for the intelligence community,
365
1067330
4000
我們為精英社群做了許多工作,
17:51
they've also pondered that.
366
1071330
2000
他們也考慮
17:53
It would be a good thing if
367
1073330
3000
那將是好事如果
17:56
people paid more attention, took seriously,
368
1076330
3000
人們更加注意,嚴肅對待,
17:59
and engaged in the same sorts of calculations,
369
1079330
2000
也進行相似的算計,
18:01
because it would change things. But it would change things in two beneficial ways.
370
1081330
4000
因為這會改變事情,它會在兩個有利的方面改變事情,
18:05
It would hasten how quickly people arrive at an agreement,
371
1085330
6000
他們提高 人們達成協議的速度,
18:11
and so it would save everybody a lot of grief and time.
372
1091330
3000
所以它會節省每個人許多痛苦與時間。
18:14
And, it would arrive at an agreement that everybody was happy with,
373
1094330
4000
它也會達成每個人都喜歡的協議,
18:18
without having to manipulate them so much --
374
1098330
3000
而不需要非常操控他們--
18:21
which is basically what I do, I manipulate them.
375
1101330
3000
這也就是我現在做的,我操控他們,
18:24
So it would be a good thing.
376
1104330
2000
這將是個好事,
18:26
CA: So you're kind of trying to say, "People of Iran, this is your destiny, lets go there."
377
1106330
4000
安德森:所以你是在客氣的說 ,“伊朗人,這是你們命定的,我們往這前進。”
18:30
BBM: Well, people of Iran, this is what many of you are going to evolve to want,
378
1110330
6000
BBM:伊朗人,這是你們許多人將會轉變而期望的,
18:36
and we could get there a lot sooner,
379
1116330
2000
我們可以快一點達到那裡,
18:38
and you would suffer a lot less trouble from economic sanctions,
380
1118330
3000
這樣你也少受一些經濟制裁帶來的困難,
18:41
and we would suffer a lot less fear of the use of military force on our end,
381
1121330
6000
我們也會少受點軍事威脅的恐懼,
18:47
and the world would be a better place.
382
1127330
2000
世界也變得更可愛些,
18:49
CA: Here's hoping they hear it that way. Thank you very much Bruce.
383
1129330
3000
安德森:這是期望他們所聽到的,謝謝你。
18:52
BBM: Thank you.
384
1132330
2000
BBM:謝謝。
18:54
(Applause)
385
1134330
5000
(掌聲)
關於本網站

本網站將向您介紹對學習英語有用的 YouTube 視頻。 您將看到來自世界各地的一流教師教授的英語課程。 雙擊每個視頻頁面上顯示的英文字幕,從那裡播放視頻。 字幕與視頻播放同步滾動。 如果您有任何意見或要求,請使用此聯繫表與我們聯繫。

https://forms.gle/WvT1wiN1qDtmnspy7