Bruce Bueno de Mesquita predicts Iran's future

141,700 views ・ 2009-04-07

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μ•„λž˜ μ˜λ¬Έμžλ§‰μ„ λ”λΈ”ν΄λ¦­ν•˜μ‹œλ©΄ μ˜μƒμ΄ μž¬μƒλ©λ‹ˆλ‹€.

λ²ˆμ—­: kj j κ²€ν† : InHyuk Song
00:18
What I'm going to try to do is explain to you
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μ €λŠ” μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„μ—κ²Œ λͺ‡ 가지 μ˜ˆμΈ‘μ„ 가지고,
00:21
quickly how to predict,
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ν–₯ν›„ λͺ‡ λ…„ λ™μ•ˆ μ΄λž€μ΄ μ–΄λ–€ 행동을 ν•  지,
00:23
and illustrate it with some predictions
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μ‹ μ†ν•˜κ²Œ μ˜ˆκ²¬ν•˜λŠ” 법을
00:25
about what Iran is going to do in the next couple of years.
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μ„€λͺ…λ“œλ¦¬κ³ μž ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
00:30
In order to predict effectively,
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효과적인 μ˜ˆμΈ‘μ„ ν•˜κΈ° μœ„ν•΄μ„œ
00:33
we need to use science.
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μš°λ¦¬λŠ” 과학을 μ‚¬μš©ν•  ν•„μš”κ°€ μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
00:36
And the reason that we need to use science
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μš°λ¦¬κ°€ 과학을 μ‚¬μš©ν•΄μ•Ό ν•˜λŠ” μ΄μœ λŠ”
00:39
is because then we can reproduce what we're doing;
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μš°λ¦¬κ°€ ν•˜κ³  μžˆλŠ” 일을 μž¬ν˜„ν•  수 있기 λ•Œλ¬Έμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
00:41
it's not just wisdom or guesswork.
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κ·Έμ € λŒ€μΆ© μ§μž‘ν•˜κ±°λ‚˜ 혼자 머리λ₯Ό κ΅΄λ¦¬λŠ” 게 μ•„λ‹ˆκ΅¬μš”.
00:44
And if we can predict,
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λ˜ν•œ μš°λ¦¬κ°€ μ˜ˆμΈ‘ν•  수 μžˆλ‹€λ©΄,
00:47
then we can engineer the future.
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μš°λ¦¬λŠ” 미래λ₯Ό λ§Œλ“€μ–΄λ‚Ό 수 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
00:49
So if you are concerned to influence energy policy,
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λ”°λΌμ„œ μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„λ“€μ΄ μ—λ„ˆμ§€ μ •μ±…μ΄λ‚˜
00:53
or you are concerned to influence national security policy,
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κ΅­κ°€ μ•ˆλ³΄ μ •μ±… λ˜λŠ” 건강 μ •μ±…, ꡐ윑, 과학에
00:58
or health policy, or education,
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영ν–₯을 미치고 μ‹Άλ‹€λ©΄,
01:01
science -- and a particular branch of science -- is a way to do it,
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μš°λ¦¬κ°€ μ§€κΈˆκΉŒμ§€ ν•΄μ™”λ˜ 방식인
01:05
not the way we've been doing it,
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μœ‘κ°μ— μ˜μ§€ν•œ μ§€ν˜œκ°€ μ•„λ‹Œ,
01:07
which is seat-of-the-pants wisdom.
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νŠΉμ • κ³Όν•™ λΆ„μ•Όκ°€ κ·Έ ν•΄λ²•μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
01:09
Now before I get into how to do it
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이제 κ·Έ 방법을 μ„€λͺ…ν•˜κΈ° 전에
01:11
let me give you a little truth in advertising,
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μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„μ—κ²Œ μ†”μ§νžˆ 털어놓을 게 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
01:14
because I'm not engaged in the business of magic.
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μ œκ°€ 무슨 λ§ˆμˆ μ„ λΆ€λ¦¬λŠ” 것이 μ•„λ‹ˆκΈ° λ•Œλ¬Έμ—
01:17
There are lots of thing that the approach I take can predict,
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제 μ ‘κ·Όλ²•μœΌλ‘œ μ˜ˆμΈ‘ν•  수 μžˆλŠ” 것이 λ§Žμ§€λ§Œ,
01:21
and there are some that it can't.
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μ˜ˆμΈ‘ν•  수 μ—†λŠ” 것도 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
01:23
It can predict complex negotiations
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이 접근법은 λ³΅μž‘ν•œ ν˜‘μƒμ΄λ‚˜
01:26
or situations involving coercion --
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강압을 μˆ˜λ°˜ν•˜λŠ” 상황도 μ˜ˆμΈ‘ν•  μˆ˜λ„ μžˆλŠ”λ°,
01:29
that is in essence everything that has to do with politics,
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이것은 본질적으둜 λͺ¨λ‘ μ •μΉ˜μ™€ 관계가 있고,
01:33
much of what has to do with business,
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사업과도 큰 관계가 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
01:35
but sorry, if you're looking to speculate in the stock market,
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μ£Όμ‹μ‹œμž₯ μ˜ˆμΈ‘μ„ κΈ°λŒ€ν–ˆλ‹€λ©΄, μ£„μ†‘ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
01:41
I don't predict stock markets -- OK,
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μ €λŠ” μ£Όμ‹μ‹œμž₯을 μ˜ˆμΈ‘ν•˜μ§€λŠ” μ•ŠμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€. -- μ’‹μ•„μš”.
01:43
it's not going up any time really soon.
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λΉ λ₯Έ μ‹œμΌ 내에 μƒμŠΉν•˜μ§€λŠ” μ•Šκ² κ΅°μš”.
01:46
But I'm not engaged in doing that.
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ν•˜μ§€λ§Œ μ €λŠ” 이런 μΌμ—λŠ” κ΄€μ—¬ν•˜μ§€ μ•ŠμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
01:49
I'm not engaged in predicting random number generators.
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μ €λŠ” λ¬΄μž‘μœ„ 숫자 생성을 μ˜ˆμΈ‘ν•˜μ§€λ„ μ•ŠλŠ”λ°,
01:52
I actually get phone calls from people
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μ‹€μ œλ‘œ μ–΄λ–€ 둜또 λ²ˆν˜Έκ°€ 당첨이 될 지
01:54
who want to know what lottery numbers are going to win.
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λ¬»λŠ” μ‚¬λžŒλ“€μ˜ μ „ν™”λ₯Ό 받은 적도 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
01:57
I don't have a clue.
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μ €λŠ” μ „ν˜€ λͺ¨λ¦…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
02:00
I engage in the use of game theory, game theory is a branch of mathematics
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μ €λŠ” μˆ˜ν•™μ˜ ν•œ 뢄야인 κ²Œμž„μ΄λ‘ μ„ μ‚¬μš©ν•˜λŠ” 일에 μ’…μ‚¬ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
02:04
and that means, sorry, that even in the study of politics,
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μ•ˆνƒ€κΉκ²Œλ„, μ΄λŠ” μ •μΉ˜ν•™ 연ꡬ에도
02:08
math has come into the picture.
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μˆ˜ν•™μ΄ μ€‘μš”ν•΄μ§€κ³  μžˆμŒμ„ μ˜λ―Έν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
02:11
We can no longer pretend that we just speculate about politics,
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더 이상 μ •μΉ˜μ— λŒ€ν•΄ κ·Έμ € 좔츑을 ν•  μˆ˜λŠ” μ—†μœΌλ©°,
02:15
we need to look at this in a rigorous way.
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μ² μ €ν•œ λ°©μ‹μœΌλ‘œ μ‚΄νŽ΄λ³Ό ν•„μš”κ°€ μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
02:18
Now, what is game theory about?
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자, κ²Œμž„ μ΄λ‘ μ΄λž€ λ¬΄μ—‡μΌκΉŒμš”?
02:21
It assumes that people are looking out for what's good for them.
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κ²Œμž„ 이둠은 μ‚¬λžŒλ“€μ΄ μžμ‹ λ“€μ—κ²Œ μ΅œμ„ μ˜ 것을 μΆ”κ΅¬ν•œλ‹€κ³  κ°€μ •ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
02:26
That doesn't seem terribly shocking --
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λ§Žμ€ μ‚¬λžŒλ“€μ—κ²Œ λ…Όλž€κ±°λ¦¬μ΄κΈ°λŠ” ν•˜μ§€λ§Œ,
02:28
although it's controversial for a lot of people --
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μš°λ¦¬κ°€ μ΄κΈ°μ μ΄λΌλŠ” 사싀은
02:30
that we are self-interested.
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그닀지 좩격적인 게 μ•„λ‹™λ‹ˆλ‹€.
02:34
In order to look out for what's best for them
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μžμ‹ λ“€μ—κ²Œ μ΅œμ„ μΈ κ²ƒμ΄λ‚˜
02:36
or what they think is best for them,
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λ˜λŠ” μžμ‹ λ“€μ΄ 보기에 μ΅œμ„ μ΄λΌ μ—¬κΈ°λŠ” 것을 μ°ΎκΈ° μœ„ν•΄
02:38
people have values -- they identify what they want, and what they don't want.
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μ‚¬λžŒλ“€μ€ κ°€μΉ˜κ΄€μ„ κ°€μ§‘λ‹ˆλ‹€. μžμ‹ λ“€μ΄ μ›ν•˜λŠ” 것과 μ›ν•˜μ§€ μ•ŠλŠ” 것을 μ‹λ³„ν•˜μ£ .
02:42
And they have beliefs about what other people want,
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λ˜ν•œ μ‚¬λžŒλ“€μ€ λ‹€λ₯Έ μ‚¬λžŒλ“€μ΄ 무엇을 μ›ν•˜λŠ”μ§€, 무엇을 μ›ν•˜μ§€ μ•ŠλŠ”μ§€,
02:45
and what other people don't want, how much power other people have,
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그리고 λ‹€λ₯Έ μ‚¬λžŒλ“€μ΄ μ–΄λŠ μ •λ„μ˜ 힘이 μžˆλŠ”μ§€
02:48
how much those people could get in the way of whatever it is that you want.
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κ·Έ μ‚¬λžŒλ“€μ΄ μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„μ΄ μ›ν•˜λŠ” 것을 μ–΄λŠ μ •λ„λ‚˜ λ°©ν•΄ν•  수 μžˆλŠ”μ§€μ— λŒ€ν•œ 생각이 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
02:52
And they face limitations, constraints,
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그리고 μ‚¬λžŒλ“€μ€ ν•œκ³„μ™€ μ œμ•½μ— 영ν–₯을 λ°›μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
02:56
they may be weak, they may be located in the wrong part of the world,
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그듀은 μ•½μžμΌ μˆ˜λ„ 있고, μ„Έμƒμ—μ„œ μ–΄μšΈλ¦¬μ§€ μ•ŠλŠ” 곳에 νƒœμ–΄λ‚˜κ²Œ 될지도 λͺ¨λ¦…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
02:59
they may be Einstein, stuck away farming
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그듀은 μΈλ„μ˜ μ‹œκ³¨ λ§ˆμ„ μ–΄λ”˜κ°€ 농μž₯에 μ²˜λ°•νžŒ
03:02
someplace in a rural village in India not being noticed,
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μ•„μΈμŠˆνƒ€μΈμ΄ 될 수 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:06
as was the case for Ramanujan for a long time,
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ν›Œλ₯­ν•œ μˆ˜ν•™μžμ˜€μ§€λ§Œ, λˆ„κ΅¬λ„ μ•Œμ•„λ³΄μ§€ λͺ»ν–ˆλ˜
03:09
a great mathematician but nobody noticed.
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였래 μ „ λΌλ§ˆλˆ„μž”μ˜ μ‚¬λ‘€μ²˜λŸΌ 말이죠
03:12
Now who is rational?
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이제 λˆ„κ°€ ν•©λ¦¬μ μž…λ‹ˆκΉŒ?
03:14
A lot of people are worried about what is rationality about?
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λ§Žμ€ μ‚¬λžŒλ“€μ΄ 합리성이 무엇인지에 λŒ€ν•΄ μš°λ €ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:17
You know, what if people are rational?
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μ‚¬λžŒλ“€μ€ ν•©λ¦¬μ μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:19
Mother Theresa, she was rational.
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ν…Œλ ˆμ‚¬ μˆ˜λ…€, κ·Έλ…€λŠ” ν•©λ¦¬μ μ΄μ—ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:22
Terrorists, they're rational.
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ν…ŒλŸ¬λ¦¬μŠ€νŠΈ, 그듀도 ν•©λ¦¬μ μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:26
Pretty much everybody is rational.
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거의 λͺ¨λ“  이듀이 ν•©λ¦¬μ μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:29
I think there are only two exceptions that I'm aware of --
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μ œκ°€ μƒκ°ν•˜κΈ°μ— 두가지 μ˜ˆμ™Έκ°€ μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:32
two-year-olds, they are not rational,
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두 μ‚΄ λ°°κΈ°, 그듀은 비합리적이며,
03:34
they have very fickle preferences,
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맀우 λ³€λ•μŠ€λŸ° μ„ ν˜Έλ„λ₯Ό κ°€μ‘Œκ³ ,
03:37
they switch what they think all the time,
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μžμ‹ λ“€μ˜ 생각을 맀번 λ°”κΏ‰λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:39
and schizophrenics are probably not rational,
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그리고 정신뢄열증 ν™˜μžλ„ 비합리적일 κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:42
but pretty much everybody else is rational.
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κ·ΈλŸ¬λ‚˜ κ·Έ 밖에 거의 λͺ¨λ“  이듀이 ν•©λ¦¬μ μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:44
That is, they are just trying to do
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즉, 그듀은 μžμ‹ λ“€μ—κ²Œ μ΅œμ„ μ˜ 이읡이라고
03:46
what they think is in their own best interest.
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μƒκ°ν•˜λŠ” 것을 ν•˜κ³ μž λ‹Ήμ—°νžˆ λ…Έλ ₯ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:51
Now in order to work out what people are going to do
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이제 μ‚¬λžŒλ“€μ΄ μžμ‹ λ“€μ˜ 이읡을 μ–»κΈ° μœ„ν•΄
03:53
to pursue their interests,
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μ–΄λ–€ 행동을 ν•˜λŠ”μ§€ νŒŒμ•…ν•˜κΈ° μœ„ν•΄μ„œλŠ”
03:55
we have to think about who has influence in the world.
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μš°λ¦¬λŠ” λˆ„κ°€ 세상에 영ν–₯λ ₯을 λ―ΈμΉ˜λŠ”μ§€ 생각해야 ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:57
If you're trying to influence corporations to change their behavior,
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μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„μ΄ μ˜€μ—Όλ¬Όμ§ˆμ„ λ°°μΆœν•˜λŠ” κΈ°μ—…μ˜ 행동을 λ³€ν™”μ‹œν‚€κΈ° μœ„ν•΄
04:02
with regard to producing pollutants,
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영ν–₯λ ₯을 ν–‰μ‚¬ν•˜λ € ν•œλ‹€λ©΄
04:05
one approach, the common approach,
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곡톡적인 ν•œ 가지 접근법은
04:07
is to exhort them to be better,
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κ·Έλ“€μ—κ²Œ κ°œμ„ μ„ μ΄‰κ΅¬ν•˜κ±°λ‚˜,
04:09
to explain to them what damage they're doing to the planet.
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그듀이 λ²Œμ΄λŠ” 일이 지ꡬ에 μ–΄λ–€ ν”Όν•΄λ₯Ό μ£ΌλŠ”μ§€ μ„€λͺ…ν•˜λŠ” κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
04:12
And many of you may have noticed that doesn't have
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μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„ 쀑 λ§Žμ€ 뢄이 이런 접근법이 μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„μ΄
04:14
as big an effect, as perhaps you would like it to have.
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μ›ν•˜λŠ” 만큼의 큰 νš¨κ³ΌλŠ” μ—†λ‹€λŠ” 사싀을 μ•Œκ³  μžˆμ„μ§€λ„ λͺ¨λ₯΄κ² μ§€λ§Œ,
04:18
But if you show them that it's in their interest,
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μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„μ΄ 이것이 κ·Έλ“€μ—κ²Œλ„ 이읡이라고 보여쀀닀면
04:21
then they're responsive.
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그듀은 ν˜Έμ‘ν•΄μ€„ κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
04:23
So, we have to work out who influences problems.
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κ·Έλž˜μ„œ, μš°λ¦¬λŠ” λˆ„κ°€ λ¬Έμ œμ— 영ν–₯을 λΌμΉ˜λŠ” 지 μ•Œμ•„λ‚΄μ•Ό ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
04:26
If we're looking at Iran, the president of the United States
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λ§Œμ•½ μš°λ¦¬κ°€ μ΄λž€μ„ μ‘°μ‚¬ν•œλ‹€λ©΄, μš°λ¦¬κ°€ μƒκ°ν•˜κΈ°μ—
04:28
we would like to think, may have some influence --
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μƒλ‹Ήν•œ 영ν–₯λ ₯을 지녔을 μ‚¬λžŒμ€ λ―Έκ΅­ λŒ€ν†΅λ Ήμ΄κ² μ£ .
04:31
certainly the president in Iran has some influence --
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μ΄λž€ λŒ€ν†΅λ Ήμ€ λ‹Ήμ—°νžˆ μ΄λž€μ— μƒλ‹Ήν•œ 영ν–₯λ ₯이 있겠죠.
04:35
but we make a mistake if we just pay attention
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그런데 μš°λ¦¬κ°€ ꢌλ ₯의 사닀리 κΌ­λŒ€κΈ°μ— μžˆλŠ” μ‚¬λžŒμ—κ²Œλ§Œ
04:38
to the person at the top of the power ladder
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μ£Όλͺ©ν•œλ‹€λ©΄ μ‹€μˆ˜ν•˜λŠ” κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
04:41
because that person doesn't know much about Iran,
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μ™œλƒν•˜λ©΄ κ·Έ μ‚¬λžŒμ€ μ΄λž€μ΄λ‚˜
04:44
or about energy policy,
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μ—λ„ˆμ§€ μ •μ±…, 의료 μ •μ±…
04:46
or about health care,
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κ·Έ 밖에 λ‹€λ₯Έ μ–΄λ–€ ꡬ체적 정책에
04:48
or about any particular policy.
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λŒ€ν•΄μ„œλŠ” 잘 λͺ¨λ₯΄κΈ° λ•Œλ¬Έμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
04:50
That person surrounds himself or herself with advisers.
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λŒ€ν†΅λ Ή 주변은 μ‘°μ–Έμžλ“€λ‘œ λ‘˜λŸ¬μ‹Έμ—¬ μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
04:55
If we're talking about national security problems,
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μš°λ¦¬κ°€ κ΅­κ°€μ•ˆλ³΄ λ¬Έμ œμ— λŒ€ν•œ λ…Όμ˜ν•˜κ³  μžˆλ‹€λ©΄,
04:57
maybe it's the Secretary of State,
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ꡭ무μž₯관일 μˆ˜λ„ 있고,
04:59
maybe it's the Secretary of Defense,
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κ΅­λ°©μž₯κ΄€,
05:01
the Director of National Intelligence,
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λ˜λŠ” ꡭ가정보ꡭμž₯, μœ μ—” λŒ€μ‚¬μ΄κ±°λ‚˜
05:03
maybe the ambassador to the United Nations, or somebody else
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λ‹€λ₯Έ λˆ„κ΅°κ°€ μΌμˆ˜λ„ μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
05:05
who they think is going to know more about the particular problem.
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μŠ€μŠ€λ‘œκ°€ νŠΉμ • λ¬Έμ œμ— λŒ€ν•΄ 더 μ•Œκ³  μžˆλ‹€κ³  μƒκ°ν•˜λŠ” μ‚¬λžŒλ“€μ΄μ£ .
05:09
But let's face it, the Secretary of State doesn't know much about Iran.
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κ·ΈλŸ¬λ‚˜ ν˜„μ‹€μ„ μ§μ‹œν•©μ‹œλ‹€. ꡭ무μž₯관은 μ΄λž€μ— λŒ€ν•΄ 잘 λͺ¨λ¦…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
05:12
The secretary of defense doesn't know much about Iran.
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κ΅­λ°©μž₯κ΄€ μ—­μ‹œ μ΄λž€μ— λŒ€ν•΄ 잘 λͺ¨λ¦…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
05:15
Each of those people in turn
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이 μ‚¬λžŒλ“€μ€ 각자
05:18
has advisers who advise them,
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μžμ‹ λ“€μ—κ²Œ μ‘°μ–Έν•΄ 쀄 고문듀이 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
05:20
so they can advise the president.
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κ·Έλž˜μ„œ 그듀은 λŒ€ν†΅λ Ήμ—κ²Œ 쑰언을 해쀄 수 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
05:23
There are lots of people shaping decisions
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λ§Žμ€ μ‚¬λžŒλ“€μ΄ μ˜μ‚¬κ²°μ •μ— κ΄€μ—¬ν•˜λ―€λ‘œ,
05:26
and so if we want to predict correctly
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μš°λ¦¬κ°€ μ˜¬λ°”λ₯΄κ²Œ μ˜ˆμΈ‘ν•˜κΈ°λ₯Ό μ›ν•œλ‹€λ©΄,
05:28
we have to pay attention to everybody
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μ˜μ‚¬κ²°μ • ν”ΌλΌλ―Έλ“œμ˜
05:31
who is trying to shape the outcome,
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정점에 μ‚¬λžŒλΏλ§Œ μ•„λ‹ˆλΌ
05:33
not just the people at the pinnacle
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κ²°κ³Όλ₯Ό λ„μΆœν•΄λ‚΄λ € μ• μ“°λŠ”
05:36
of the decision-making pyramid.
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λͺ¨λ“  μ΄λ“€μ—κ²Œ μš°λ¦¬λŠ” μ£Όλͺ©ν•΄μ•Ό ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
05:40
Unfortunately, a lot of times we don't do that.
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λΆˆν–‰ν•˜κ²Œλ„, μš°λ¦¬λŠ” λ§Žμ€ 경우 κ·Έλ ‡κ²Œ ν•˜μ§€ μ•ŠμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
05:42
There's a good reason that we don't do that,
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μš°λ¦¬κ°€ κ·Έλ ‡κ²Œ ν•˜μ§€ μ•ŠλŠ” λ°λŠ” μΆ©λΆ„ν•œ μ΄μœ κ°€ 있고,
05:44
and there's a good reason that using game theory and computers,
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κ²Œμž„μ΄λ‘ κ³Ό 컴퓨터λ₯Ό μ‚¬μš©ν•˜λŠ” 데도 μΆ©λΆ„ν•œ μ΄μœ κ°€ μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
05:47
we can overcome the limitation
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μ†Œμˆ˜μ˜ μ‚¬λžŒλ“€λ§Œμ„ κ³ λ €ν•¨μœΌλ‘œμ¨ μƒκΈ°λŠ”
05:50
of just looking at a few people.
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ν•œκ³„λ₯Ό 극볡할 수 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
05:52
Imagine a problem with just five decision-makers.
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5λͺ…μ˜ μ˜μ‚¬κ²°μ •μžκ°€ μ‘΄μž¬ν•˜λŠ” 문제λ₯Ό 생각해 보죠.
05:56
Imagine for example
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예λ₯Ό λ“€μ–΄,
05:58
that Sally over here,
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이μͺ½μ— μžˆλŠ” μƒλ¦¬λŠ”
06:00
wants to know what Harry, and Jane,
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해리, 제인, 쑰지 그리고 ν”„λž­ν¬μ˜ 생각을
06:03
and George and Frank are thinking,
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μ•Œκ³  μ‹Άμ–΄μ„œ
06:06
and sends messages to those people.
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κ·Έλ“€μ—κ²Œ 메세지λ₯Ό λ³΄λƒ…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
06:08
Sally's giving her opinion to them,
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μƒλ¦¬λŠ” μžμ‹ μ˜ μ˜κ²¬μ„ κ·Έλ“€μ—κ²Œ 보내고,
06:10
and they're giving their opinion to Sally.
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그듀도 μžμ‹ λ“€μ˜ μ˜κ²¬μ„ μƒλ¦¬μ—κ²Œ λ³΄λƒ…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
06:13
But Sally also wants to know
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그런데, μƒλ¦¬λŠ” 해리가 λ‹€λ₯Έ 3λͺ…μ—κ²Œ
06:15
what Harry is saying to these three,
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무슨 말을 ν•˜λŠ” 지 μ•Œκ³  싢을 뿐만 μ•„λ‹ˆλΌ,
06:18
and what they're saying to Harry.
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그듀은 ν•΄λ¦¬μ—κ²Œ 무슨 말을 ν•˜λŠ” 지도 μ•Œκ³  μ‹ΆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
06:20
And Harry wants to know
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λ˜ν•œ, 해리도 이듀이 각각
06:22
what each of those people are saying to each other, and so on,
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μ„œλ‘œμ—κ²Œ 무슨 말을 ν•˜κ³  μžˆλŠ”μ§€ μ•Œκ³  μ‹Άμ–΄ν•˜κ³ , λ‚˜λ¨Έμ§€ μ‚¬λžŒλ„ λ§ˆμ°¬κ°€μ§€μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
06:25
and Sally would like to know what Harry thinks those people are saying.
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κ²Œλ‹€κ°€ μƒλ¦¬λŠ” 해리가 λ‹€λ₯Έ μ‚¬λžŒλ“€μ˜ 말에 λŒ€ν•΄ μ–΄λ–€ 생각을 ν•˜λŠ”μ§€ μ•Œκ³  μ‹ΆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
06:28
That's a complicated problem; that's a lot to know.
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이것은 λ³΅μž‘ν•œ 문제이며, μ•Œμ•„μ•Ό ν•  게 λ§ŽμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
06:31
With five decision-makers
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5λͺ…μ˜ μ˜μ‚¬ κ²°μ •μž κ°„μ—λŠ”
06:34
there are a lot of linkages --
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λ‹€μˆ˜μ˜ 연결고리가 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
06:36
120, as a matter of fact,
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μ‹€μ œλ‘œλŠ” 120κ°€μ§€μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
06:38
if you remember your factorials.
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μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„μ΄ κ³„μŠΉ(νŒ©ν† λ¦¬μ–Ό) κ°œλ…μ„ κΈ°μ–΅ν•œλ‹€λ©΄,
06:40
Five factorial is 120.
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5!은 120μž„μ„ 계산할 수 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
06:42
Now you may be surprised to know
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ν—Œλ°, λ˜‘λ˜‘ν•œ 이듀은 이 120가지 경우 λͺ¨λ‘λ₯Ό
06:44
that smart people can keep 120 things straight
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λ¨Έλ¦Ώμ†μ—μ„œ 계산할 수 μžˆλ‹€λŠ” 사싀을 μ•Œκ²Œ λ˜μ‹œλ©΄
06:47
in their head.
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놀라싀지도 λͺ¨λ₯΄κ² μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
06:49
Suppose we double the number of influencers
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영ν–₯λ ₯을 ν–‰μ‚¬ν•˜λŠ” μ‚¬λžŒμ˜ 수λ₯Ό
06:51
from five to 10.
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5λͺ…μ—μ„œ 10λͺ…μœΌλ‘œ, 2배둜 λŠ˜λ €λ³΄κ² μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
06:53
Does that mean we've doubled the number of pieces of information
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μ΄λŠ” μš°λ¦¬κ°€ μ•Œμ•„μ•Ό ν•  μ •λ³΄μ˜ μˆ˜κ°€ 120μ—μ„œ 240으둜
06:57
we need to know, from 120 to 240?
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2λ°°κ°€ λ˜μ—ˆμŒμ„ μ˜λ―Έν• κΉŒμš”?
06:59
No. How about 10 times?
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μ•„λ‹ˆμ£ . 그럼 10λ°°λŠ” μ–΄λ–»μŠ΅λ‹ˆκΉŒ?
07:01
To 1,200? No.
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1,200κ°€μ§€μΈκ°€μš”? μ•„λ‹™λ‹ˆλ‹€.
07:04
We've increased it to 3.6 million.
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360만 가지 경우둜 μ¦κ°€ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
07:07
Nobody can keep that straight in their head.
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이건 λˆ„κ΅¬λ„ λ‹€ λ”°λΌμž‘μ„ 수 μ—†λŠ” μˆ«μžμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
07:09
But computers,
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ν•˜μ§€λ§Œ, μ»΄ν“¨ν„°λŠ” λ‹€λ₯΄μ£ .
07:12
they can. They don't need coffee breaks,
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μ»΄ν“¨ν„°λŠ” κ°€λŠ₯ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€. νœ΄μ‹ μ‹œκ°„μ΄ ν•„μš” μ—†μ£ .
07:15
they don't need vacations,
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νœ΄κ°€λ„ ν•„μš” μ—†μœΌλ©°,
07:18
they don't need to go to sleep at night,
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밀에 자러 κ°€μ•Ό ν•  ν•„μš”λ„ μ—†κ³ ,
07:20
they don't ask for raises either.
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월급을 μ˜¬λ €λ‹¬λΌκ³ λ„ ν•˜μ§€ μ•ŠμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
07:23
They can keep this information straight
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μ»΄ν“¨ν„°λ‘œ 이 정보λ₯Ό κ³§λ°”λ‘œ 계산할 수 μžˆλ‹€λŠ” μ–˜κΈ°λŠ”
07:25
and that means that we can process the information.
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μš°λ¦¬κ°€ κ·Έ 정보λ₯Ό μ²˜λ¦¬ν•  수 μžˆμŒμ„ μ˜λ―Έν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
07:28
So I'm going to talk to you about how to process it,
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그럼, μ œκ°€ μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„μ—κ²Œ κ·Έ 처리 과정을 λ§μ”€λ“œλ¦¬κ² μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
07:30
and I'm going to give you some examples out of Iran,
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그리고 μ΄λž€μ—μ„œ νŒŒμƒλœ λͺ‡ 가지 사둀λ₯Ό μ œμ‹œν•˜κ³  λ‚˜λ©΄,
07:33
and you're going to be wondering,
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μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„μ€ κΆκΈˆν•΄μ§ˆ κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
07:35
"Why should we listen to this guy?
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"μ™œ 이 μ‚¬λžŒ 말에 κ·€ κΈ°μšΈμ—¬μ•Ό ν•˜μ§€?"
07:37
Why should we believe what he's saying?"
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"μ™œ κ·Έκ°€ λ§ν•˜λŠ” 것을 λ―Ώμ–΄μ•Ό ν•˜μ§€?"
07:40
So I'm going to show you a factoid.
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μž¬λ―ΈμžˆλŠ” 사싀을 ν•˜λ‚˜ λ§μ”€λ“œλ¦¬μ£ .
07:44
This is an assessment by the Central Intelligence Agency
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이 μžλ£ŒλŠ” μ œκ°€ λ§μ”€λ“œλ¦° 이 λͺ¨λΈμ„ 가지고
07:47
of the percentage of time
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κ²°κ³Όλ₯Ό 아직 λͺ¨λ₯΄λŠ” 일을
07:49
that the model I'm talking about
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μ˜ˆμΈ‘ν•˜λŠ”λ° μžˆμ–΄,
07:51
is right in predicting things whose outcome is not yet known,
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데이터λ₯Ό μ œκ³΅ν•œ μ „λ¬Έκ°€λ“€μ˜ 예츑 κ²°κ³ΌλŠ” ν‹€λ ΈμŒμ—λ„
07:54
when the experts who provided the data inputs
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λͺ¨λΈμ˜ 예츑 κ²°κ³ΌλŠ”
07:58
got it wrong.
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μ˜³μ•˜λ˜ λΉ„μœ¨μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
08:00
That's not my claim, that's a CIA claim -- you can read it,
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μ΄λŠ” 제 μ£Όμž₯이 μ•„λ‹ˆλΌ CIA의 μ£Όμž₯μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€, λ³΄μ‹œλ‹€μ‹œν”Ό 말이죠.
08:03
it was declassified a while ago. You can read it in a volume edited by
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μ–Όλ§ˆ μ „ κΈ°λ°€ λ¬Έμ„œμ—μ„œ ν•΄μ œλ˜μ—ˆκ³ , μ˜ˆμΌλŒ€ μΆœνŒλΆ€μ˜ λΈŒλž˜λ“œν¬λ“œ μ›¨μŠ€ν„°ν•„λ“œκ°€
08:06
H. Bradford Westerfield, Yale University Press.
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νŽΈμ§‘ν•œ μ±…μ—μ„œ 찾아보싀 수 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
08:09
So, what do we need to know
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그럼, μ˜ˆμΈ‘μ„ ν•˜κΈ° μœ„ν•΄
08:11
in order to predict?
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μš°λ¦¬κ°€ μ•Œμ•„μ•Ό ν•˜λŠ” 것은 λ¬΄μ—‡μΌκΉŒμš”?
08:13
You may be surprised to find out we don't need to know very much.
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많이 μ•Œ ν•„μš” μ—†λ‹€λŠ” 것을 μ•Œκ²Œ λœλ‹€λ©΄ λ†€λž„μ§€λ„ λͺ¨λ₯΄κ² κ΅°μš”.
08:16
We do need to know who has a stake
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μ˜μ‚¬κ²°μ •μ˜ 결과에 영ν–₯을 λ―ΈμΉ˜λŠ” 것에
08:19
in trying to shape the outcome of a decision.
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λˆ„κ΅¬μ˜ 이해관계가 κ±Έλ € μžˆλŠ”μ§€ μ•Œμ•„μ•Ό ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
08:24
We need to know what they say they want,
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μš°λ¦¬λŠ” 그듀이 μ›ν•œλ‹€κ³  λ§ν•˜λŠ” 게 무엇인지 μ•Œμ•„μ•Ό ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
08:27
not what they want in their heart of hearts,
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그듀이 λ§ˆμŒμ† 깊이 μ›ν•˜λŠ” 것, λ˜λŠ” 그듀이 얻을 수 μžˆλ‹€κ³ 
08:30
not what they think they can get,
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μƒκ°ν•˜λŠ” 것이 μ•„λ‹ˆλΌ μ›ν•œλ‹€κ³  λ§ν•˜λŠ” 것을 말이죠.
08:32
but what they say they want, because that is a strategically chosen position,
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μ™œλƒν•˜λ©΄ κ·Έκ²ƒμ΄μ•Όλ§λ‘œ 그듀이 μ „λž΅μ μœΌλ‘œ μ„ νƒν•œ μž…μž₯이며,
08:35
and we can work backwards from that
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κ·Έλ“€μ˜ μ˜μ‚¬ κ²°μ •μ˜ μ€‘μš”ν•œ μš”μ†Œλ₯Ό
08:37
to draw inferences about important features of their decision-making.
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κ·Έλ‘œλΆ€ν„° μ—­μœΌλ‘œ μΆ”λ‘ ν•΄ λ‚Ό 수 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
08:41
We need to know how focused they are
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그듀이 λ‹Ήλ©΄ν•œ λ¬Έμ œμ— μ–΄λ–€ μ‹μœΌλ‘œ μ΄ˆμ μ„
08:43
on the problem at hand.
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λ§žμΆ”μ—ˆμ—ˆλŠ”μ§€ μ•Œμ•„μ•Ό ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
08:45
That is, how willing are they to drop what they're doing when the issue comes up,
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즉, κ·Έ λ¬Έμ œκ°€ λ°œμƒν•  λ•Œ μ§€κΈˆ ν•˜κ³  μžˆλŠ” λ‹€λ₯Έ 일을 κ·Έλ§Œλ‘κ³ ,
08:48
and attend to it instead of something else that's on their plate --
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λˆˆμ•žμ— 일 λŒ€μ‹ μ— κ·Έ λ¬Έμ œμ— μ§‘μ€‘ν•˜λ €λŠ” μ˜μ§€κ°€ μ–Όλ§ˆλ‚˜ μžˆλŠλƒ ν•˜λŠ” κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
08:52
how big a deal is it to them?
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그것이 κ·Έλ“€μ—κ²Œ μ–΄λŠ μ •λ„λ‚˜ μ€‘μš”ν•œ μ‚¬μ•ˆμΈκ°€ ν•˜λŠ” 것이죠.
08:54
And how much clout could they bring to bear
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λ˜ν•œ 그듀이 κ·Έ μ‚¬μ•ˆμ— κ΄€μ—¬ν•˜κΈ°λ‘œ μ„ νƒν–ˆλ‹€λ©΄,
08:57
if they chose to engage on the issue?
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영ν–₯λ ₯을 μ–Όλ§ˆλ‚˜ 집쀑할 수 μžˆλŠ”κ°€ ν•˜λŠ” κ²λ‹ˆλ‹€.
09:02
If we know those things
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μš°λ¦¬κ°€ 이것듀을 μ•ˆλ‹€λ©΄
09:04
we can predict their behavior by assuming that everybody
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λͺ¨λ“  μ‚¬λžŒλ“€μ€ μ–΄λ–€ 결정을 ν•  λ•Œ 2가지 일에 관심을 κ°–λŠ”λ‹€λŠ”
09:07
cares about two things on any decision.
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κ°€μ • ν•˜μ— κ·Έλ“€μ˜ 행동을 μ˜ˆμΈ‘ν•  수 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
09:12
They care about the outcome. They'd like an outcome as close to
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그듀은 결과에 관심이 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€. 그듀은 κ²°κ³Όκ°€ κ°€λŠ₯ν•œ,
09:14
what they are interested in as possible.
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μžμ‹ λ“€μ˜ 이읡과 κ·Όμ ‘ν•˜κΈΈ μ›ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
09:17
They're careerists, they also care about getting credit --
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그듀은 κ²½λ ₯을 μΆ”κ΅¬ν•˜λŠ” μ‚¬λžŒλ“€μ΄λ©°, λͺ…성을 μ–»λŠ”λ°λ„ 관심이 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
09:20
there's ego involvement,
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μ΄λŠ” μžμ•„κ΄€μ—¬μ™€ κ΄€λ ¨ μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
09:22
they want to be seen as important in shaping the outcome,
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그듀은 κ²°κ³Όλ₯Ό λ„μΆœν•΄λ‚΄λŠ” κ³Όμ •μ—μ„œ μ€‘μš”ν•˜κ²Œ 보여지길 μ›ν•˜κ±°λ‚˜,
09:26
or as important, if it's their druthers, to block an outcome.
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μ„ νƒκΆŒμ΄ μžˆλ‹€λ©΄ κ²°κ³Όλ₯Ό 저지할 μ •λ„λ‘œ μ€‘μš”ν•˜κ²Œ 보여지길 μ›ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
09:31
And so we have to figure out how they balance those two things.
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κ·Έλž˜μ„œ μš°λ¦¬λŠ” 그듀이 이 두 가지λ₯Ό μ–΄λ–»κ²Œ μ‘°μ ˆν•˜λŠ”κ°€ μ•Œμ•„λ‚΄μ•Ό ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
09:34
Different people trade off
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각기 λ‹€λ₯Έ μ‚¬λžŒλ“€μ΄
09:36
between standing by their outcome,
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κ²°κ³Όλ₯Ό λŒμ–΄μ•ˆκ³  그것을 κ³ μˆ˜ν•˜λ©΄μ„œ,
09:39
faithfully holding to it, going down in a blaze of glory,
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μ˜κ΄‘μ˜ 뢈길 μ†μ—μ„œ μ“°λŸ¬μ§€κ±°λ‚˜,
09:42
or giving it up, putting their finger in the wind,
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μ•„λ‹ˆλ©΄ ν¬κΈ°ν•˜κ³ , λ°”λžŒμ˜ λ°©ν–₯을 κ°€λŠ ν•΄ λ³΄κ³ λ‚˜μ„œ
09:45
and doing whatever they think is going to be a winning position.
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μžμ‹ λ“€μ΄ μƒκ°ν•˜κΈ°μ— 승리λ₯Ό κ°€μ Έμ˜¬ 것 같은 일을 ν•  지 μ‚¬μ΄μ—μ„œ κ· ν˜•μ„ μž‘μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
09:48
Most people fall in between, and if we can work out where they fall
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λŒ€λΆ€λΆ„μ˜ μ‚¬λžŒλ“€μ€ κ·Έ μ‚¬μ΄μ—μ„œ μ‹€νŒ¨ν•˜κΈ° λ•Œλ¬Έμ—, 만일 그듀이 μ–΄λ””μ„œ μ‹€νŒ¨ν•˜λŠ” 지 μ•Œμ•„λ‚Ό 수 μžˆλ‹€λ©΄,
09:51
we can work out how to negotiate with them
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κ·Έλ“€μ˜ 행동을 λ°”κΎΈκΈ° μœ„ν•΄
09:53
to change their behavior.
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κ·Έλ“€κ³Ό μ–΄λ–»κ²Œ ν˜‘μƒν•  것인지 μ•Œ 수 μžˆμ„ κ²λ‹ˆλ‹€.
09:55
So with just that little bit of input
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κ·Έλž˜μ„œ μ•„μ£Ό 적은 μž…λ ₯λŸ‰μ„ 가지고도
09:58
we can work out what the choices are that people have,
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그듀이 가지고 μžˆλŠ” 선택이 무엇인지,
10:01
what the chances are that they're willing to take,
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그듀이 기꺼이 μ„ νƒν•˜κ³ μž ν•˜λŠ” κΈ°νšŒκ°€
10:04
what they're after, what they value, what they want,
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무엇인지, μΆ”κ΅¬ν•˜λŠ” 것, κ°€μΉ˜κ΄€, μ›ν•˜λŠ” 것,
10:07
and what they believe about other people.
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λ‹€λ₯Έ μ‚¬λžŒλ“€μ— λŒ€ν•œ μƒκ°κΉŒμ§€ μ•Œμ•„λ‚Ό 수 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
10:10
You might notice what we don't need to know:
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μ•Œ ν•„μš”κ°€ μ—†λŠ” 것이 무엇인지 μ•Œμ•„μ±„μ…¨μŠ΅λ‹ˆκΉŒ,
10:14
there's no history in here.
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μ΄μ „μ˜ 역사가 λΉ μ Έ 있죠.
10:16
How they got to where they are
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ν˜„μž¬μ˜ μž…μž₯에 μ–΄λ–»κ²Œ λ„λ‹¬ν•˜κ²Œ λ˜μ—ˆλŠ”κ°€λŠ”
10:18
may be important in shaping the input information,
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μž…λ ₯ 정보λ₯Ό λ§Œλ“€ λ•Œ μ€‘μš”ν•  μˆ˜λŠ” μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€λ§Œ,
10:20
but once we know where they are
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ν˜„μž¬μ˜ μž…μž₯을 일단 μ•Œκ²Œ 되면,
10:22
we're worried about where they're going to be headed in the future.
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μš°λ¦¬κ°€ μ—Όλ €ν•΄μ•Ό ν•  것은 μ•žμœΌλ‘œ 그듀이 μ–΄λ””λ‘œ ν–₯ν•˜λŠ”κ°€ ν•˜λŠ” κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
10:25
How they got there turns out not to be terribly critical in predicting.
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μ–΄λ–»κ²Œ ν˜„ μž…μž₯을 μ·¨ν•˜κ²Œ λ˜μ—ˆλŠ”μ§€λŠ” μ˜ˆμΈ‘μ— μžˆμ–΄ μ ˆλŒ€ μ€‘μš”ν•œ 것이 μ•„λ‹˜μ΄ λ“œλŸ¬λ‚¬μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
10:29
I remind you of that 90 percent accuracy rate.
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μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„μ—κ²Œ 90% μ •ν™•λ„μ˜€λ‹€λŠ” 것을 λˆ„μ°¨ λ§μ”€λ“œλ¦½λ‹ˆλ‹€.
10:33
So where are we going to get this information?
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그럼, μš°λ¦¬λŠ” 이 정보λ₯Ό μ–΄λ””μ„œ 얻을 수 μžˆμ„κΉŒμš”?
10:35
We can get this information
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μš°λ¦¬λŠ” μΈν„°λ„·μ΄λ‚˜ κ²½μ œν•™μžμ—κ²Œμ„œ
10:38
from the Internet, from The Economist,
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λ˜λŠ” νŒŒμ΄λ‚Έμ…œ νƒ€μž„μ¦ˆ, λ‰΄μš• νƒ€μž„μ¦ˆ
10:41
The Financial Times, The New York Times,
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U.S λ‰΄μŠ€ 그리고 μ›”λ“œ 리포트, 이와 λΉ„μŠ·ν•œ λ‹€λ₯Έ μ†Œμ‹ν†΅μ—μ„œ
10:44
U.S. News and World Report, lots of sources like that,
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이런 μ’…λ₯˜μ˜ λ‹€λ₯Έ μ†Œμ‹ν†΅μ—μ„œ 이런 정보λ₯Ό μ–»κ±°λ‚˜
10:47
or we can get it from asking experts
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μž₯μ†Œμ™€ λ¬Έμ œμ— λŒ€ν•œ 연ꡬ에 ν•œ 평생을 λ°”μΉ˜λŠ”
10:49
who spend their lives studying places and problems,
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μ „λ¬Έκ°€μ—κ²Œ μš”μ²­ν•΄ 얻을 수 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
10:52
because those experts know this information.
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이런 전문가듀은 이 정보λ₯Ό μ•ŒκΈ° λ•Œλ¬Έμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
10:55
If they don't know, who are the people trying to influence the decision,
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λ§Œμ•½ μ „λ¬Έκ°€κ°€ λˆ„κ°€ κ·Έ 결정에 영ν–₯λ ₯을 ν–‰μ‚¬ν•˜λ € μ• μ“°λŠ”μ§€,
10:58
how much clout do they have,
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그듀이 μ–Όλ§ˆλ‚˜ 영ν–₯λ ₯을 κ°€μ‘ŒλŠ”μ§€, 그듀이 이 μ‚¬μ•ˆμ— λŒ€ν•΄ μ–Όλ§ˆλ‚˜ 관심이 μžˆλŠ”μ§€,
11:00
how much they care about this issue, and what do they say they want,
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그듀이 μ›ν•œλ‹€κ³  μ–˜κΈ°ν•˜λŠ” 것을 λͺ¨λ₯Έλ‹€λ©΄,
11:03
are they experts? That's what it means to be an expert,
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κ·Έλ₯Ό 전문가라 ν•  수 μžˆμ„κΉŒμš”? κ·Έκ±Έ μ•ˆλ‹€λŠ” 게 λ°”λ‘œ μ „λ¬Έκ°€κ°€ λœλ‹€λŠ” μ˜λ―Έμ΄λ―€λ‘œ
11:06
that's the basic stuff an expert needs to know.
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이것은 μ „λ¬Έκ°€κ°€ μ•Œμ•„μ•Ό ν•  κΈ°λ³Έμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
11:10
Alright, lets turn to Iran.
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μ’‹μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€. μ΄λž€ μ–˜κΈ°λ‘œ λŒμ•„κ°€μ£ 
11:12
Let me make three important predictions --
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세가지 μ€‘μš”ν•œ μ˜ˆμΈ‘μ„ ν•΄λ³΄κ² μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
11:15
you can check this out, time will tell.
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μ‹œκ°„μ΄ μ§€λ‚˜λ©΄, 제 μ˜ˆμΈ‘μ„ 검증할 수 μžˆμ„ κ²λ‹ˆλ‹€.
11:18
What is Iran going to do about its nuclear weapons program?
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μ΄λž€μ€ 핡무기 ν”„λ‘œκ·Έλž¨μ„ μ–΄λ–»κ²Œ ν•  μƒκ°μΌκΉŒμš”?
11:26
How secure is the theocratic regime in Iran?
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μ΄λž€ λ‚΄ μ‹ μ • μ •μΉ˜μ œλ„λŠ” μ–Όλ§ˆλ‚˜ νŠΌνŠΌν•©λ‹ˆκΉŒ?
11:29
What's its future?
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이 μ œλ„μ˜ λ―Έλž˜λŠ” μ–΄λ–»μŠ΅λ‹ˆκΉŒ?
11:31
And everybody's best friend,
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그럼 λͺ¨λ“  μ΄λ“€μ˜ 친ꡬ인
11:34
Ahmadinejad. How are things going for him?
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μ•„λ§ˆλ”” λ„€μžλ“œμš”? κ·Έμ—κ²ŒλŠ” μ–΄λ–€ 일이 λ²Œμ–΄μ§ˆκΉŒμš”?
11:37
How are things going to be working out for him in the next year or two?
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λ‚΄λ…„μ΄λ‚˜ 내후년에 κ·ΈλŠ” 일이 잘 ν’€λ¦΄κΉŒμš”?
11:43
You take a look at this, this is not based on statistics.
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이 κ·Έλž˜ν”„λ₯Ό λ³΄μ‹­μ‹œμ˜€, 이건 톡계에 κΈ°λ°˜ν•œ μžλ£Œκ°€ μ•„λ‹™λ‹ˆλ‹€.
11:46
I want to be very clear here. I'm not projecting some past data into the future.
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λͺ…ν™•νžˆ 짚고 λ„˜μ–΄κ°€μ£ . μ „ 과거의 데이터λ₯Ό 톡해 미래λ₯Ό μ˜ˆμΈ‘ν•˜μ§€ μ•Šμ•˜μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
11:51
I've taken inputs on positions and so forth,
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μ €λŠ” μ—¬λŸ¬ μž…μž₯ λ“± 기타 μ—¬λŸ¬ 가지λ₯Ό μž…λ ₯ν•˜κ³ 
11:54
run it through a computer model
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μƒν˜Έμž‘μš© 역학을 λͺ¨μ˜ μ‹€ν—˜ν–ˆμ—ˆλ˜
11:56
that had simulated the dynamics of interaction,
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컴퓨터 λͺ¨λΈμ„ 톡해 이λ₯Ό μ‹€ν–‰ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
11:59
and these are the simulated dynamics,
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이것이 λͺ¨μ˜ μ‹€ν—˜ν•œ μ—­ν•™μœΌλ‘œ,
12:01
the predictions about the path of policy.
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μ •μ±… λ°©ν–₯에 λŒ€ν•œ μ˜ˆμΈ‘μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
12:04
So you can see here on the vertical axis,
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그럼, μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„μ€ 수직 μΆ•μ˜ 이곳이 λ³΄μ΄μ‹œμ£ .
12:07
I haven't shown it all the way down to zero,
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0κΉŒμ§€ λ‚΄λ €κ°€λŠ” λͺ¨λ“  방법을 λ³΄μ—¬μ£Όμ§€λŠ” μ•Šκ² μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
12:09
there are lots of other options, but here I'm just showing you the prediction,
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λ‹€λ₯Έ λ§Žμ€ μ˜΅μ…˜λ“€λ„ μžˆμ§€λ§Œ, μ—¬κΈ°μ„œ μ €λŠ” μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„μ—κ²Œ 예츑만 λ³΄μ—¬λ“œλ¦¬λ €κ³ 
12:12
so I've narrowed the scale.
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λ²”μœ„λ₯Ό ν•œμ •μ‹œμΌ°μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
12:14
Up at the top of the axis, "Build the Bomb."
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수직 μΆ•μ˜ 맨 μœ„ 뢀뢄은 "폭탄 μ œμž‘"μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
12:17
At 130, we start somewhere above 130,
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130 지점을 λ³΄μ‹œλ©΄, κ·Έλž˜ν”„λŠ” 130의 μœ— λΆ€λΆ„,
12:21
between building a bomb, and making enough weapons-grade fuel
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폭탄 μ œμž‘κ³Ό μΆ©λΆ„ν•œ 무기용 농좕 μš°λΌλŠ„ 제쑰 사이에 있고,
12:24
so that you could build a bomb.
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λ”°λΌμ„œ 폭탄을 λ§Œλ“€ μˆ˜λ„ μžˆλŠ” μƒνƒœμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
12:26
That's where, according to my analyses,
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제 뢄석에 λ”°λ₯΄λ©΄
12:29
the Iranians were at the beginning of this year.
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μ˜¬ν•΄ 초 μ΄λž€μ˜ μ‹œμž‘μ μ΄ λ°”λ‘œ κ·Έ 지점이죠.
12:32
And then the model makes predictions down the road.
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λͺ¨λΈμ— λ”°λ₯΄λ©΄ κ·Έ μ΄ν›„λ‘œ ν•˜κ°•ν•˜κ²Œ λ˜λŠ”λ°,
12:35
At 115 they would only produce enough weapons grade fuel
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μ œμ‘°λ²•μ„ μ•ˆλ‹€λŠ” 사싀을 보여주기 μœ„ν•œ μ •λ„μ˜
12:39
to show that they know how, but they wouldn't build a weapon:
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무기용 농좕 μš°λΌλŠ„μ„ μ œμ‘°ν•˜λ‚˜, 무기λ₯Ό λ§Œλ“€μ§€λŠ” μ•Šκ³ 
12:41
they would build a research quantity.
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μ—°κ΅¬μš© μ •λ„μ˜ λΆ„λŸ‰μ΄ 될 κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
12:43
It would achieve some national pride,
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이λ₯Ό 톡해 μ–΄λŠ μ •λ„μ˜ ꡭ가적 μžμ‘°μ‹¬μ„ 달성할 κ²ƒμ΄λ‚˜
12:45
but not go ahead and build a weapon.
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무기 μ œμž‘μœΌλ‘œκΉŒμ§€λŠ” μ§„ν–‰λ˜μ§€ μ•Šκ² μ£ .
12:48
And down at 100 they would build civilian nuclear energy,
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그리고 100κΉŒμ§€ λ‚΄λ €κ°€λ©΄, 그듀은 μžμ‹ λ“€μ˜ λͺ©μ μ΄λΌ μ–˜κΈ°ν•œ
12:50
which is what they say is their objective.
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λ―Όκ°„μš© ν•΅ μ—λ„ˆμ§€λ₯Ό λ§Œλ“€ κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
12:54
The yellow line shows us the most likely path.
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이 λ…Έλž€μƒ‰ 선은 κ°€μž₯ 유λ ₯ν•œ λ°©ν–₯을 λ³΄μ—¬μ€λ‹ˆλ‹€.
12:57
The yellow line includes an analysis
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이 λ…Έλž€ 선은
12:58
of 87 decision makers in Iran,
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μ΄λž€ λ‚΄ 87λͺ…μ˜ μ˜μ‚¬κ²°μ •μžμ™€
13:01
and a vast number of outside influencers
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μ΄λž€μ˜ 행동을 λ³€ν™”μ‹œν‚€λ € μ••λ ₯을 κ°€ν•˜κ³  μžˆλŠ”
13:04
trying to pressure Iran into changing its behavior,
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μ—„μ²­λ‚œ 수의 μ™ΈλΆ€ 영ν–₯λ ₯μžλ“€,
13:07
various players in the United States, and Egypt,
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λ―Έκ΅­, μ΄μ§‘νŠΈ, μ‚¬μš°λ”” 아라비아, λŸ¬μ‹œμ•„,
13:10
and Saudi Arabia, and Russia, European Union,
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μœ λŸ½μ—°ν•©, 일본 λ“± 기타 μ—¬λŸ¬ λ‚˜λΌμ˜
13:12
Japan, so on and so forth.
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λ‹€μ–‘ν•œ μ°Έκ°€μžμ— λŒ€ν•œ 뢄석을 ν¬ν•¨ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
13:14
The white line reproduces the analysis
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흰 선은 ꡭ제 ν™˜κ²½μ΄ λ‚΄λΆ€μ μœΌλ‘œ
13:18
if the international environment
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κ΅­λ‚΄μ˜ μ •μΉ˜μ  μ••λ ₯ ν•˜μ—μ„œ
13:20
just left Iran to make its own internal decisions,
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슀슀둜 κ²°μ •ν•˜λ„λ‘ μ΄λž€μ„ 내버렀 λ‘”λ‹€λŠ” κ°€μ • ν•˜μ—
13:23
under its own domestic political pressures.
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뢄석을 λ‹€μ‹œ μˆ˜ν–‰ν•œ κ²°κ³Όμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
13:25
That's not going to be happening,
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λ¬Όλ‘  그런 일은 μΌμ–΄λ‚˜μ§€ μ•Šκ² μ§€λ§Œ,
13:27
but you can see that the line comes down faster
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선이 더 λΉ λ₯΄κ²Œ λ‚΄λ €μ˜€λŠ” 것을 λ³Ό 수 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
13:31
if they're not put under international pressure,
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그듀이 ꡭ제적인 μ••λ ₯을 받지 μ•Šμ•˜κ±°λ‚˜
13:34
if they're allowed to pursue their own devices.
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그듀이 폭탄을 μ†Œμœ ν•˜λ €λŠ” 것을 ν—ˆμš©ν–ˆλ‹€λ©΄ 말이죠.
13:36
But in any event, by the end of this year,
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μ–΄μ°Œλ˜μ—ˆλ“  μ˜¬ν•΄ λ§μ΄λ‚˜ λ‚΄λ…„ μ΄ˆκΉŒμ§€
13:39
beginning of next year, we get to a stable equilibrium outcome.
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μš°λ¦¬λŠ” μ•ˆμ •μ μΈ κ· ν˜• μƒνƒœμ— 이λ₯΄κ²Œ λ©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
13:42
And that equilibrium is not what the United States would like,
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이 κ· ν˜•μ€ 미ꡭ이 μ›ν•˜λŠ” 것은 μ•„λ‹ˆκ² μ§€λ§Œ
13:46
but it's probably an equilibrium that the United States can live with,
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미ꡭ이 μ•„λ§ˆ 받아듀일 수 μžˆλŠ” κ· ν˜•μΌ 것이며,
13:49
and that a lot of others can live with.
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λ‹€λ₯Έ λ§Žμ€ λ‹€λ₯Έ λ‚˜λΌλ„ 받아듀일 수 μžˆλŠ” κ· ν˜•μΌ κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
13:51
And that is that Iran will achieve that nationalist pride
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μ΄λž€ μ—­μ‹œ 연ꡬλ₯Ό 톡해 폭탄을 μ œμž‘ν•  μ •λ„λŠ” λͺ»λ˜λ‚˜
13:55
by making enough weapons-grade fuel, through research,
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μžμ‹ λ“€μ΄ 무기용 농좕 μ—°λ£Œ μ œμ‘°λ²•μ„ μ•Œκ³  μžˆλ‹€λŠ” 것을
13:59
so that they could show that they know how to make weapons-grade fuel,
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보여쀄 수 μžˆμ„ μ •λ„μ˜ 농좕 μš°λΌλŠ„μ„ μ œμ‘°ν•¨μœΌλ‘œμ¨
14:03
but not enough to actually build a bomb.
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민쑱적 μžμ‘΄μ‹¬μ„ λ§Œμ‘±μ‹œν‚¬ 수 μžˆμ„ κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
14:08
How is this happening?
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이게 μ–΄λ–»κ²Œ 된 μΌμΌκΉŒμš”?
14:10
Over here you can see this is the distribution
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μ—¬κΈ°μ„œ μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„μ€ μ˜€λŠ˜λ‚  λ―Όκ°„μš© ν•΅ μ—λ„ˆμ§€λ₯Ό μ§€μ§€ν•˜λŠ”
14:14
of power in favor of civilian nuclear energy today,
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μ„Έλ ₯의 λΆ„λ°°λ₯Ό λ³Ό 수 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
14:19
this is what that power block is predicted to be like
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이것은 2010λ…„ ν›„λ°˜μ΄λ‚˜ 2011λ…„ μ „λ°˜κΉŒμ§€
14:22
by the late parts of 2010, early parts of 2011.
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μ‘΄μž¬ν•  κ²ƒμœΌλ‘œ 예츑된 μ„Έλ ₯ μ§‘λ‹¨μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
14:28
Just about nobody supports research on weapons-grade fuel today,
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ν˜„μž¬λŠ” 거의 λˆ„κ΅¬λ„ 무기용 농좕 μ—°λ£Œ 연ꡬλ₯Ό μ§€μ§€ν•˜μ§€ μ•Šμ§€λ§Œ,.
14:32
but by 2011 that gets to be a big block,
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κ·ΈλŸ¬λ‚˜ 2011년이 되면 λ©μΉ˜κ°€ μ»€μ§€κ²Œ 될 것이며
14:35
and you put these two together, that's the controlling influence in Iran.
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이 λ‘˜μ„ ν•©μΉœ 것이 λ°”λ‘œ μ΄λž€μ˜ μ£Όμš” ν†΅μ œμ„Έλ ₯이 될 κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
14:39
Out here today, there are a bunch of people --
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ν˜„μž¬ μ—¬κΈ° λ°”κΉ₯에, 이 μ •μΉ˜μ„Έλ ₯듀을 λ³΄μ‹œλ©΄,
14:42
Ahmadinejad for example --
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예λ₯Ό λ“€λ©΄ μ•„λ§ˆλ”” λ„€μžλ“œκ°€ μžˆλŠ”λ°,
14:44
who would like not only to build a bomb,
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이듀은 폭탄 μ œμž‘ 뿐 μ•„λ‹ˆλΌ
14:46
but test a bomb.
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폭탄을 μ‹€ν—˜ν•΄λ³΄λŠ” 것도 μ›ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
14:48
That power disappears completely;
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κ·Έ μ„Έλ ₯은 μ™„μ „νžˆ μ‚¬λΌμ Έμ„œ,
14:50
nobody supports that by 2011.
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2011λ…„μ—λŠ” λˆ„κ΅¬λ„ 이λ₯Ό μ§€μ§€ν•˜μ§€ μ•ŠμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
14:53
These guys are all shrinking,
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이μͺ½μ˜ μ„Έλ ₯은 쀄어듀고 있으며
14:55
the power is all drifting out here,
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μ •μΉ˜μ„Έλ ₯듀은 λͺ¨λ‘ 이μͺ½μœΌλ‘œ λ°©ν–₯을 μ„ νšŒν•˜κ²Œ λ˜μ–΄
14:58
so the outcome is going to be the weapons-grade fuel.
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κ·Έ κ²°κ³Ό 무기용 λ†μΆ•μ—°λ£Œλ₯Ό λ§Œλ“€κ²Œ 될 κ²λ‹ˆλ‹€.
15:01
Who are the winners and who are the losers in Iran?
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μ΄λž€μ—μ„œ μŠΉμžμ™€ νŒ¨μžλŠ” λˆ„κ΅¬μΌκΉŒμš”?
15:04
Take a look at these guys, they're growing in power,
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ꢌλ ₯이 컀지고 μžˆλŠ” 이 μ‚¬λžŒλ“€μ„ λˆˆμ—¬κ²¨λ³΄μ£ .
15:07
and by the way, this was done a while ago
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그런데, 이것은 μ–Όλ§ˆ 전에 μΌμ–΄λ‚¬λŠ”λ°,
15:10
before the current economic crisis,
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ν˜„μž¬μ˜ κ²½μ œμœ„κΈ° μ „μ΄μ—ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
15:12
and that's probably going to get steeper.
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그리고 μ•„λ§ˆλ„ 더 κΈ‰κ²©νžˆ μ„±μž₯ν•  κ²λ‹ˆλ‹€.
15:14
These folks are the moneyed interests in Iran,
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이 μ‚¬λžŒλ“€μ€ 은행가, μ„μœ μ—…μž, μ΄λž€ μƒμΈλ“€λ‘œ
15:16
the bankers, the oil people, the bazaaries.
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μ΄λž€μ˜ μžλ³Έκ°€λ“€μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
15:20
They are growing in political clout,
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그듀은 μ •μΉ˜λ ₯이 컀지고 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
15:23
as the mullahs are isolating themselves --
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반면 이슬람 μ„±μ§μžλ“€μ€
15:26
with the exception of one group of mullahs,
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고립을 μžμ΄ˆν•˜κ³  μžˆλŠ”λ°, λ‹€λ§Œ λ―Έκ΅­μ—κ²ŒλŠ” μƒμ†Œν•œ
15:28
who are not well known to Americans.
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μΌλ‹¨μ˜ μ„±μ§μž 그룹은 μ˜ˆμ™Έμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
15:30
That's this line here, growing in power,
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그듀은 λ°”λ‘œ 이 선인데, ꢌλ ₯이 μ¦κ°€ν•˜κ³  있으며,
15:32
these are what the Iranians call the quietists.
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이듀은 μ΄λž€μΈλ“€μ΄ μ •μ μ£Όμ˜μžλΌκ³  μΌμ»«λŠ” μ‚¬λžŒλ“€μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
15:36
These are the Ayatollahs, mostly based in Qom,
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그듀은 μ΄λž€ λ„μ‹œ 콀에 주둜 κΈ°λ°˜μ„ λ‘” μ•„μ•Όν†¨λΌλ“€λ‘œ,
15:39
who have great clout in the religious community,
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쒅ꡐ계에 큰 영ν–₯λ ₯을 κ°–κ³  μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
15:43
have been quiet on politics and are going to be getting louder,
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그듀은 μ •μΉ˜μ— λŒ€ν•΄ μ‘°μš©ν–ˆμ—ˆμ§€λ§Œ, λͺ©μ†Œλ¦¬κ°€ 점차 컀지고 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
15:46
because they see Iran going in an unhealthy direction,
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μ™œλƒν•˜λ©΄ 그듀이 보기에 ν˜Έλ©”μ΄λ‹ˆκ°€ μ˜λ„ν–ˆλ˜
15:48
a direction contrary
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λ°˜λŒ€λ°©ν–₯이자 ν•΄λ‘œμš΄ λ°©ν–₯으둜
15:50
to what Khomeini had in mind.
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μ΄λž€μ΄ λ‚˜μ•„κ°€κ³  있기 λ•Œλ¬Έμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
15:54
Here is Mr. Ahmadinejad.
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μ—¬κΈ° μ•„λ§ˆλ”” λ„€μžλ“œ 씨가 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
15:56
Two things to notice: he's getting weaker,
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μ£Όμ˜ν•  게 두 가지 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€. κ·ΈλŠ” 점점 약해지고 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
15:59
and while he gets a lot of attention in the United States,
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λ˜ν•œ λ―Έκ΅­μ—μ„œλŠ” λ§Žμ€ μ£Όλͺ©μ„ λ°›κΈ°λŠ” ν•˜μ§€λ§Œ,
16:01
he is not a major player in Iran.
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κ·ΈλŠ” μ΄λž€μ—μ„œ 핡심 인물이 μ•„λ‹ˆλ©°,
16:03
He is on the way down.
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내리막길에 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
16:05
OK, so I'd like you to take a little away from this.
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μ’‹μ•„μš”. 그럼 잠깐 λ”΄ μ–˜κΈ°λ₯Ό ν•˜κ² μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
16:09
Everything is not predictable: the stock market
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λͺ¨λ“  것을 μ˜ˆμΈ‘ν•  μˆ˜λŠ” μ—†μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€. μ£Όμ‹μ‹œμž₯은
16:11
is, at least for me, not predictable,
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μ΅œμ†Œν•œ μ €μ—κ²ŒλŠ” 예츑이 λΆˆκ°€λŠ₯ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€λ§Œ,
16:14
but most complicated negotiations are predictable.
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λŒ€λ‹€μˆ˜μ˜ λ³΅μž‘ν•œ ꡐ섭은 예츑 κ°€λŠ₯ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
16:19
Again, whether we're talking health policy, education,
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λ‹€μ‹œ λ§ν•˜μžλ©΄, μš°λ¦¬κ°€ κ±°λ‘ ν•˜λŠ” 건강정책,
16:23
environment, energy,
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ꡐ윑, ν™˜κ²½, μ—λ„ˆμ§€
16:26
litigation, mergers,
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μ†Œμ†‘, 합병 λ“± 무엇이든지 간에
16:28
all of these are complicated problems
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이런 λ³΅μž‘ν•œ 문제 λͺ¨λ‘
16:30
that are predictable,
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예츑이 κ°€λŠ₯ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
16:32
that this sort of technology can be applied to.
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이런 μœ ν˜•μ˜ 곡학이 μ μš©ν•  수 될 수 μžˆλ‹€λ©΄ 말이죠.
16:36
And the reason that being able to predict those things is important,
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그리고 κ·Έ λ¬Έμ œλ“€μ„ μ˜ˆμΈ‘ν•  수 μžˆλ‹€λŠ” 사싀이 μ€‘μš”ν•œ μ΄μœ λŠ”
16:41
is not just because you might run a hedge fund and make money off of it,
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단지 μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„μ΄ 이 점을 ν™œμš©ν•΄ 헀지 νŽ€λ“œ 운용으둜 λˆμ„ 벌 수 μžˆλ‹€λŠ” 이유뿐 μ•„λ‹ˆλΌ
16:44
but because if you can predict what people will do,
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μ‚¬λžŒλ“€μ΄ ν•  일을 μ˜ˆμΈ‘ν•  수 μžˆλ‹€λ©΄
16:47
you can engineer what they will do.
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μ•žμœΌλ‘œ 그듀이 ν•˜κ²Œ 될 λ°”λ₯Ό μœ λ„ν•  수 있기 λ•Œλ¬Έμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
16:50
And if you engineer what they do you can change the world,
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μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„μ΄ 그듀이 ν•˜λŠ” 일을 μ‘°μž‘ν•  수 μžˆλ‹€λ©΄,
16:52
you can get a better result.
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μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„μ€ 세계λ₯Ό λ³€ν™”μ‹œν‚¬ 수 있고, μ’€ 더 λ‚˜μ€ κ²°κ³Όλ₯Ό 얻을 수 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
16:54
I would like to leave you with one thought, which is
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μ €λŠ” μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„μ—κ²Œ μ €μ—κ²Œλ„ ν•΄λ‹Ήν•˜λŠ” 생각 ν•œκ°€μ§€λ₯Ό λ‚¨κΈΈκΉŒ ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
16:57
for me, the dominant theme of this gathering,
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이 λͺ¨μž„μ˜ μ£Όμš” 주제이며
17:02
and is the dominant theme of this way of thinking about the world.
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세상에 κ΄€ν•΄ μƒκ°ν•˜λŠ” 이 λ°©μ‹μ˜ μ£Όμš” μ£Όμ œμ΄κΈ°λ„ ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
17:05
When people say to you,
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μ‚¬λžŒλ“€μ΄ μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„μ—κ²Œ
17:08
"That's impossible,"
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"그것은 λΆˆκ°€λŠ₯ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€."라고 말할 λ•Œ
17:10
you say back to them,
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μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„μ€ κ·Έλ“€μ—κ²Œ λ˜λ°›μ•„ μ–˜κΈ°ν•˜μ„Έμš”.
17:12
"When you say 'That's impossible,'
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"당신이 '그것은 λΆˆκ°€λŠ₯ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.'라고 λ§ν•˜λ©΄,
17:14
you're confused with,
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"λ‚˜λŠ” 그것을 μ–΄λ–»κ²Œ ν•΄μ•Ό 할지 λͺ¨λ¦…λ‹ˆλ‹€."와
17:16
'I don't know how to do it.'"
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ν˜Όλ™ν•œ κ²ƒμ΄λΌκ³ μš”.
17:19
Thank you.
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κ°μ‚¬ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
17:21
(Applause)
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(λ°•μˆ˜)
17:25
Chris Anderson: One question for you.
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크리슀 μ•€λ”μŠ¨: ν•œ 가지 질문이 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
17:27
That was fascinating.
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λŒ€λ‹¨νžˆ ν₯λ―Έλ‘œμ› μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
17:30
I love that you put it out there.
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μ €λŠ” κ΅μˆ˜λ‹˜μ΄ κ±°κΈ°μ„œ 내놓은 λ‚΄μš©μ΄ λ§˜μ— λ“­λ‹ˆλ‹€.
17:33
I got very nervous halfway through the talk though,
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강연을 λ“€μœΌλ©΄μ„œ μ’€ λΆˆμ•ˆν–ˆλ˜ λ°”λŠ”,
17:35
just panicking whether you'd included in your model, the possibility that
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μ΄λŸ¬ν•œ 예츑 κ²°κ³Όλ₯Ό λ‚΄λ†“λŠ” 것이 결과에 영ν–₯을 쀄 수 μžˆλ‹€λŠ” κ°€λŠ₯성을
17:38
putting this prediction out there might change the result.
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λͺ¨λΈμ— ν¬ν•¨ν•˜μ…¨λŠ”κ°€ μ˜€μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
17:42
We've got 800 people in Tehran who watch TEDTalks.
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ν…Œν—€λž€μ—λŠ” TEDTalksλ₯Ό μ§€μΌœλ³΄λŠ” 800λͺ…μ˜ μ‚¬λžŒλ“€μ΄ μžˆλŠ”λ° 말이죠.
17:45
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita: I've thought about that,
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브루슀 뢀에노 데 λ©”μŠ€ν€΄νƒ€: κ·Έ 점에 λŒ€ν•΄ μƒκ°ν–ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
17:47
and since I've done a lot of work for the intelligence community,
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μ œκ°€ 정보 당ꡭ을 μœ„ν•΄ λ§Žμ€ ν™œλ™μ„ ν•΄μ˜¨ 이후,
17:51
they've also pondered that.
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κ·Έλ“€ λ˜ν•œ κ·Έ 점을 곰곰이 μƒκ°ν•˜κ³  μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
17:53
It would be a good thing if
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μ‚¬λžŒλ“€μ΄ 더 주의λ₯Ό 기울이고, μ§„μ§€ν•˜κ²Œ λ°›μ•„λ“€μ—¬,
17:56
people paid more attention, took seriously,
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λ˜‘κ°™μ€ μ’…λ₯˜μ˜ 계산을 μ‚¬μš©ν•œλ‹€λ©΄,
17:59
and engaged in the same sorts of calculations,
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쒋은 일일 κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
18:01
because it would change things. But it would change things in two beneficial ways.
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그게 ν˜•μ„Έλ₯Ό λ³€ν™”μ‹œν‚€κΈ° λ•Œλ¬Έμ΄μ£ . 두 가지 μœ μ΅ν•œ λ©΄μ—μ„œ λ³€ν™”κ°€ μžˆμ„ κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
18:05
It would hasten how quickly people arrive at an agreement,
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μ‚¬λžŒλ“€μ΄ μ‘°μ†νžˆ ν˜‘μ •μ— ν•©μ˜ν•˜λŠ” 것을 μž¬μ΄‰ν•˜κ²Œ 되면,
18:11
and so it would save everybody a lot of grief and time.
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λ§Žμ€ 비탄과 세월을 보낸 λͺ¨λ“  이듀을 ꡬ할 κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
18:14
And, it would arrive at an agreement that everybody was happy with,
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그리고 λͺ¨λ“  이듀이 λ§Œμ‘±ν•˜λŠ” ν˜‘μ •μ— ν•©μ˜ν•˜κ²Œ 될 κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
18:18
without having to manipulate them so much --
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그듀을 κ·Έλ ‡κ²Œ μ‘°μ’…ν•˜λŠ” 일 없이도 말이죠.
18:21
which is basically what I do, I manipulate them.
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기본적으둜 μ œκ°€ ν•˜λŠ” 것은, 그듀을 μ‘°μ’…ν•˜λŠ” κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
18:24
So it would be a good thing.
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κ·Έλž˜μ„œ 쒋은 일이라고 ν•œ κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
18:26
CA: So you're kind of trying to say, "People of Iran, this is your destiny, lets go there."
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크리슀: 그럼, κ΅μˆ˜λ‹˜μ΄ ν•˜κ³  싢은 말씀은 "μ΄λž€ κ΅­λ―Όλ“€, 이것이 λ‹Ήμ‹ λ“€μ˜ 운λͺ…μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€. κ·Έ 길둜 κ°€μ„Έμš”"인 것 κ°™κ΅°μš”.
18:30
BBM: Well, people of Iran, this is what many of you are going to evolve to want,
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λΈŒλ£¨λ…Έ: 음, μ΄λž€ κ΅­λ―Ό μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„, 제 말은 μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„μ΄ μ›ν•˜λŠ” λ°œμ „μ„ μ„œμ„œνžˆ ν•˜κ²Œ 되면,
18:36
and we could get there a lot sooner,
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훨씬 λΉ λ₯Έ μ‹œμΌ λ‚΄ κ·Έ 운λͺ…을 λ§žμ΄ν•  수 μžˆλ‹€λŠ” μ–˜κΈ°μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
18:38
and you would suffer a lot less trouble from economic sanctions,
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그리고 경제 제재의 고톡을 νœ μ”¬ 덜 λ°›κ²Œ 되고,
18:41
and we would suffer a lot less fear of the use of military force on our end,
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미ꡭ의 ꡰ사λ ₯ μ‚¬μš©μ— λŒ€ν•œ μ•„μ£Ό μ΅œμ†Œν•œμ˜ 곡포λ₯Ό λ°›κ²Œ λ˜λ©΄μ„œ,
18:47
and the world would be a better place.
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μ„Έκ³„λŠ” 더 λ‚˜μ€ 곳이 될 κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
18:49
CA: Here's hoping they hear it that way. Thank you very much Bruce.
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크리슀: 그듀이 κ·Έλ ‡κ²Œ λ“£κΈΈ λ°”λžλ‹ˆλ‹€. λŒ€λ‹¨νžˆ κ°μ‚¬ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€, 브루슀.
18:52
BBM: Thank you.
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λΈŒλ£¨λ…Έ: κ°μ‚¬ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
18:54
(Applause)
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(λ°•μˆ˜)
이 μ›Ήμ‚¬μ΄νŠΈ 정보

이 μ‚¬μ΄νŠΈλŠ” μ˜μ–΄ ν•™μŠ΅μ— μœ μš©ν•œ YouTube λ™μ˜μƒμ„ μ†Œκ°œν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€. μ „ 세계 졜고의 μ„ μƒλ‹˜λ“€μ΄ κ°€λ₯΄μΉ˜λŠ” μ˜μ–΄ μˆ˜μ—…μ„ 보게 될 κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€. 각 λ™μ˜μƒ νŽ˜μ΄μ§€μ— ν‘œμ‹œλ˜λŠ” μ˜μ–΄ μžλ§‰μ„ 더블 ν΄λ¦­ν•˜λ©΄ κ·Έκ³³μ—μ„œ λ™μ˜μƒμ΄ μž¬μƒλ©λ‹ˆλ‹€. λΉ„λ””μ˜€ μž¬μƒμ— 맞좰 μžλ§‰μ΄ μŠ€ν¬λ‘€λ©λ‹ˆλ‹€. μ˜κ²¬μ΄λ‚˜ μš”μ²­μ΄ μžˆλŠ” 경우 이 문의 양식을 μ‚¬μš©ν•˜μ—¬ λ¬Έμ˜ν•˜μ‹­μ‹œμ˜€.

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