A funny look at the unintended consequences of technology | Chuck Nice

270,393 views ・ 2018-02-27

TED


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翻译人员: 潘 可儿 校对人员: Yolanda Zhang
00:12
Future tech always comes with two things: promise
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有两样东西总是随未来科技而来
承诺 和意外成果
00:17
and unintended consequences.
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00:19
And it's those consequences that I want to explore.
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而这些成果正是我想要去探索的
00:23
And before we get to how future tech may affect us,
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在了解未来科技 会怎样影响我们之前
00:26
I'd like to spend a little time exploring the unintended consequences
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我会花一点时间去探索我们科技的
00:30
of some of our recent tech,
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一些意外成果
00:32
namely, social media.
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也就是社交媒体
00:34
Social media, a few short years ago, was the tech of future you.
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短短几年间 社交媒体从未来科技
00:39
Now it just is you.
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变成了现实
当时认为社交媒体 将会以我们从未想象过的方式
00:42
Social media was supposed to bring us together
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00:44
in ways we could never imagine.
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把我们聚集到一起
00:47
And the predictors were correct.
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这种预测是对的
00:50
These three girls are talking to one another
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这三个女孩正在自如地聊天
00:53
without the awkward discomfort of eye contact.
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还完美地避免了对视的尴尬
00:56
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
00:57
I call that advancement.
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我认为这是一种进步
01:01
We were supposed to be caught up in a communication tsunami,
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还有人预测我们将会被卷入一场
01:05
the likes of which the world has never seen.
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前所未有的世界性社交海啸
01:07
And that did happen.
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事实的确如此
01:09
And so did this.
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这也是
01:13
(Sings) One of these things is not like the other.
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(唱歌)有一个人 他落单了
01:16
(Speaks) Now, look at this picture.
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(说话)现在来看看这张照片
01:17
If you picked the guy with the book, you’re wrong --
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如果你在关注看书的那位 那就错了
01:20
or, as a certain president would say, "Wrong!"
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就像某位总统说的一样 “错了!”
01:23
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
01:27
Clearly, three of these guys are reading,
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显然 这三位仁兄都在阅读
01:29
and one guy, on the end, is listening to music
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而坐在边上的那位则在听音乐
01:32
and playing "Candy Crush."
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和玩消消乐
01:33
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
01:35
So are we more connected,
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那到底是人与人的关系变得更亲密
01:37
or are we just more connected to our devices?
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还是人与机的关系变得更亲密了
01:42
Social media was supposed to place us in a veritable town square,
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社交媒体理应要给我们 提供一个真正的言论广场
01:45
where we could engage one another with challenging ideas and debates.
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让我们的思想碰撞 相互辩论
01:50
And instead what we got were trolls.
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可事实上迎接我们的 是大量的“投饵”
01:53
This is an actual tweet that I received.
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这是我收到过的一条真实推特信息
01:58
"Chuck, no one wants to hear your stupid, ill-informed political views!
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“Chuck 没人想听你那些 愚蠢的 一知半解的政治见解
02:02
I hope you get leprosy and die.
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我希望你得庥风死掉
02:04
Love, Dad"
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爱你的 老爸
02:06
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
02:08
Now, the great thing about that tweet if you look at it,
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好消息是 如果你认真看这条推特
它跟大部分投饵一样没啥大碍
02:11
just like most trolls, it's not that bad,
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02:13
because he wished "leporsy" on me instead of "leprosy,"
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因为他希望我得“庥风” 而不是“麻风”
02:17
and "leporsy" is not dangerous at all.
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而“庥风”是完全无害的
02:20
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
02:21
(Applause)
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(掌声)
02:26
Along with trolls, we got a brand new way of torturing teenagers --
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伴随着投饵 一种折磨青少年的 新方式诞生了——
02:30
cyberbullying.
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网络欺凌
02:32
A concept that my 75-year-old mother just can't seem to wrap her head around.
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这概念会让我七十五岁的 老母亲摸不着头脑
02:38
"So, uh, did they hit him?"
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“那,他们打他了吗?”
02:40
"No, Mom, they didn't hit him."
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“不,妈妈,他们没有。”
02:42
"Did they take his money?"
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“那他们拿他钱了吗?”
02:43
"No, Mom, they didn't take his money."
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“不,妈妈,他们没拿他钱。”
02:45
"Did they put his face in the toilet?"
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“他们把他的脸按在厕所上了吗?”
02:47
"No, Mom, they didn't --"
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“不,妈妈,他们没这么干……”
02:48
"Well, what did they do?"
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“所以他们到底干啥了?”
02:50
"They attacked him on the internet."
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“他们在网上攻击他。”
02:52
"Attacked him on the internet?"
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“在网上攻击他?”
02:54
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
02:55
"Well, why don't you just turn off the internet?"
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“那你直接断网不就得了?”
02:57
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
“你们这代人全是软蛋。”
02:59
"Your whole generation is a bunch of wussies."
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03:01
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
03:03
She's got a point.
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她的话倒是没毛病
03:04
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
03:06
She's got a point.
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没毛病
03:07
And I don't even want to talk about what social media has done to dating.
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我甚至都不想谈 社交媒体是怎么毁掉约会的
03:11
I was on Grindr until I found out it wasn't a sandwich app.
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我上了 Grindr 才知道 原来它不是一款三明治手机叫餐应用
03:16
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
03:19
And I can't even tell you about Tinder,
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更别说 Tinder 了
03:23
except for the fact that if you think there is a limit
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如果你认为这世上只有
极少人会匿名约炮
03:27
to the amount of anonymous sex we can have on this planet,
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03:30
you are sadly mistaken.
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那就大错特错了
03:32
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
03:33
So where do we go from here?
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接下来要谈什么呢
03:35
Well, let's just jump right in and play the hits.
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一起来玩碰碰车吧
无人驾驶汽车
03:38
Driverless cars.
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03:39
Something that has already been around for many years,
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其实多年前我们已经做到了
只不过以前没有用电脑而已
03:42
just without the assistance of computers.
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03:44
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
03:47
(Applause)
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(掌声)
03:50
Because for years, we have been driving while texting,
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因为多年来我们都是 一边开车一边发信息
03:54
putting on makeup,
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一边化妆
03:56
shaving, reading -- actually reading --
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一边刮胡子 阅读 如果真有会人阅读
03:59
that would be me.
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那说的就是我
04:00
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
04:01
The other thing is that since driverless cars will be shared,
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同时 既然无人驾驶汽车将会共享
04:04
most people won't own cars,
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大部分人都不会买车了
意味着车辆管理局要退出历史舞台了
04:06
and that means the DMV will go away.
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04:09
The DMV -- I know what you're saying right now.
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车辆管理局——我知道你在想什么
“这人不可能会支持
04:11
"There's no way this guy is going to stand up here
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车辆管理局。”
04:13
and make a case for the DMV."
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好吧 我不了解你 但我真的不想在这么一个世界生活:
04:15
Well, I don't know about you, but I do not want to live in a world
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04:18
where harsh fluorescent lights,
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充斥着刺眼的灯光
04:20
endless lines,
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一眼望不到头的长队
04:22
terrible forms to fill out
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烦人的表格
04:24
and disaffected, soulless bureaucrats remind me
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还有心怀不满 行尸走肉般的官僚
提醒我幸亏自己没在那儿工作
04:28
that I am pretty damn lucky not to work here.
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04:31
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
04:33
That is the real service they provide.
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这就是他们真正提供的服务
04:36
The DMV:
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车辆管理局:
04:37
come for the registration renewal,
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为注册续签而生
04:40
stay for the satisfaction of knowing you made some pretty good life choices.
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致力于让你做出好的生活抉择
04:44
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
04:49
Nobody will own their car in the future,
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将来没人会开私家车了
04:51
and that means teenagers will not have a place to make out.
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青少年也少了一个卿卿我我的地方
04:55
So you know what that means.
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也就是说
04:56
That means they will order driverless cars to do just that.
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他们会叫一辆无人驾驶汽车来代替
05:00
I do not want to step into a vehicle and ask the question:
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我可不想在进车时有这样的疑惑
05:04
"Why does this car smell like awkwardness, failure and shame?"
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“为什么我嗅到了 笨拙、失败和羞耻的气息?”
05:09
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
05:12
If I want to ask that question, I'll walk into my own bedroom.
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如果我真想问这么一个问题 我会回我自己房间的
05:15
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
05:17
So what else do we have to look forward to?
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那还有什么要吐槽的呢
05:19
That's right, artificial intelligence.
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对 就是人工智能
05:21
Artificial intelligence, yes.
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没错 人工智能
05:23
You know, there was a time when artificial intelligence was a joke.
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曾几何时 人工智能还只是个笑话
05:26
I mean, literally a quip that you would hear at a cocktail party
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而且还是有些人会在
05:30
when somebody would bring it up in conversation:
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鸡尾酒派对上说的俏皮话
05:32
"Artificial intelligence.
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“人工智能
05:34
The only real artificial intelligence is our American Congress.
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唯一真正的人工智能就是美国国会
05:38
Ha, ha, ha, ha, ha."
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哈哈哈哈哈“
05:40
Well, it's not funny anymore.
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不过这已经不好笑了
05:41
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
05:48
Stephen Hawking, Elon Musk and Bill Gates have all gone on record
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斯蒂芬·霍金 埃隆·马斯克 比尔·盖茨
都曾表达过对人工智能的悲观看法
05:51
expressing grave reservations about artificial intelligence.
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05:55
That's like Jesus, Moses and Muhammad coming together and saying,
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就好像耶稣 摩西和 穆罕默迪聚在一起说:
05:59
"Guy, guys -- here's something we can all believe in."
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“嘿,嘿,你们真的要相信。”
06:02
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
你们可能会真的相信
06:03
You might want to go with that, is all I'm saying.
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06:07
We are actually teaching machines how to think,
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其实我们就是在教机器怎样思考
06:11
how to understand our behavior,
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怎样理解我们的行为
怎样自我防卫 甚至学会欺骗
06:14
how to defend themselves and even practice deception.
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06:18
What could possibly go wrong?
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这能有什么问题呢
06:20
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
06:23
The one thing that's for sure:
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有一点可以确定的是
06:25
the creation always despises its creator.
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造物者总是被自己的作品鄙视
06:29
OK?
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懂吗
06:30
The Titans rose up against the gods;
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泰坦总是会上帝作对
06:32
Lucifer against Jehovah.
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路西法与耶和华作对
06:34
And anybody who has a teenager has heard these words:
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各位青少年家长 肯定听过这样的话
06:37
"I hate you and you're ruining my life!
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“我恨你,你毁了我一生!”
06:39
I hate you!"
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“我恨你!”
06:42
Now just imagine that sentiment with a machine that can outthink you
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再想象一下一台比你聪明的机器 会对你怀有怎样的感情
06:46
and is heavily armed.
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还是全副武装那种
06:48
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
06:51
The result?
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结果呢
06:52
Absolutely.
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显而易见
06:54
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
06:58
What we need to do before we perfect artificial intelligence
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在完善人工智能之前
07:02
is perfect artificial emotions.
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我们应该完善人工情感
07:04
That way, we can teach the robots or machines
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我们可以教机器人或者机器
07:08
how to love us unconditionally,
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怎样无条件爱我们
07:11
so that when they figure out that the only real problem on this planet
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即便他们发现这个星球上的唯一问题
07:15
is us,
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就是我们
07:16
instead of destroying us --
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它们都不会灭了我们
07:18
which, by the way, is totally logical --
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而是 完全符合逻辑地
07:21
they will find us adorable --
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觉得我们可爱极了
07:24
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
就跟婴儿拉粑粑一样
07:25
like baby poop.
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07:26
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
07:27
"Oh my god, I just love the way you just destroyed the planet.
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“天哪,我爱死你摧毁地球的方式了,
07:30
I can't stay mad at you, you're so cute!
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我没办法对你发火,你太可爱了!
07:33
You're so cute!"
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你太可爱了!“
07:34
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
提到人工智能就必须要谈机器人了
07:36
Can't talk about this without talking about robotics. OK?
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还记得你曾经觉得机器人很酷吗
07:43
Remember when you thought robotics were cool?
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以前我也觉得机器人很酷
07:45
I remember when I thought robotics were cool,
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直到我发现它们会取代任何人
07:47
until I figured out that they were going to take everybody's place,
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从快递员到心脏外科医生
07:50
from the delivery guy down to the heart surgeon.
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关于机器人 只有一件事让我们失望
07:52
The one thing, though, that is very disappointing about robotics
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07:55
is the holy grail of robotics,
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那就是我们至今
也未能实现的终极梦想
07:57
and it hasn't even happened.
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我说的是机器人女朋友
07:58
I'm talking about the robot girlfriend,
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08:00
the dream of one lonely geek in a windowless basement
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住在无窗地下室的 孤独极客将她们视为梦想
08:04
who vowed one day: "I am going to marry my creation."
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并终会在将来的某天高呼: “我要跟我的作品结婚。”
08:08
And there actually is a movement underway to stop this from happening,
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事实上也有阻止 这种梦想成真的地下运动
08:13
for fear of exploitation.
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他们唯恐产生剥削
08:16
And I, for one, am against that movement.
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而我 是反对这种运动的
08:20
I believe we should have robot girlfriends.
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我觉得我们应该要有机器人女朋友
08:23
I just believe that they should come with a feminist protocol
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除了有人工智能之外
08:27
and artificial intelligence,
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她们还要懂得女权主义协议
08:29
so she can take one look at that guy and go, "I am too good for you.
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那样她们就可以对人说:“你配不上我,
08:33
I'm leaving."
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我要走了。”
08:35
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
08:36
(Applause)
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(掌声)
08:40
And finally,
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最后
我必须要谈一下生物工程
08:42
I have to talk about bioengineering,
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08:44
an area of science that promises to end disease before it even begins,
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这个科学领域承诺能够预防疾病
08:51
to help us live longer, fuller, healthier lives.
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让我们活得更长久 更精彩 更健康
08:57
And when you couple that with implantable hardware,
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只要联想一下植入式硬件
09:00
you are looking at the next incarnation of human evolution.
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你就能看到人类的下一轮进化
09:04
And all of that sounds great,
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在你搞清楚这是什么意思之前
09:07
until you figure out where it's really going.
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这一切听起来都很好
09:09
One place:
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比如说:
09:11
designer babies,
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“设计婴儿”
09:13
where, no matter where you are on the globe
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无论你在地球上的哪个地方
09:15
or what your ethnicity,
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是什么种族
09:17
babies will end up looking like that.
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生出来的宝宝都会长成这样
09:19
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
09:21
That boy is surprised
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这个小男孩很吃惊
因为他刚得知他的父母都是黑人
09:24
because he just found out both his parents are black.
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09:27
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
09:35
Can you imagine him at a cocktail party in 20 years?
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你能想象一下二十年后 他参加鸡尾酒派对的场景吗
09:39
"Yeah, both my parents are black.
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“对,我的父母都是黑人。
09:41
I mean, it's a little awkward at times,
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我是说,虽然有点奇怪,
09:43
but you should see my credit rating.
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不过你一定要去看看 我的信用等级
非常高,我真没有骗你。”
09:45
Impressive, very impressive."
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09:46
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
09:49
Now, all of this seems scary,
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这一切似乎都很吓人
09:51
and everybody in this room knows that it isn't.
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可这里的每个人都知道这不是事实
09:54
Technology isn't scary.
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科技并不可怕
09:56
Never has been and it never will be.
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以前不是 将来也不会
10:00
What's scary is us
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可怕的是我们自己
10:02
and what we will do with technology.
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以及我们会利用科技做的事
10:05
Will we allow it to expose our humanity,
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我们是用它展现我们的人性
10:09
showing our true selves
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展示我们的真我
10:11
and reinforcing the fact that we are indeed our brother's keeper?
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深化我们是自己兄弟的依靠这一事实
10:16
Or will we allow it to reveal our deepest, darkest demons?
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还是透过它显露自己 内心深处的阴暗面
10:22
The true question is not whether or not technology is scary.
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真正的问题不在于科技是否可怕
10:28
The true question is:
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真正的问题是
10:30
How human
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你到底是否
10:31
are you?
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枉而为人
10:33
Thank you.
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谢谢
10:34
(Applause)
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(掌声)
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