A funny look at the unintended consequences of technology | Chuck Nice

270,393 views ・ 2018-02-27

TED


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譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: NAN-KUN WU
00:12
Future tech always comes with two things: promise
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未來科技總是會帶來 兩樣東西:承諾,
00:17
and unintended consequences.
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以及不在計畫中的結果。
00:19
And it's those consequences that I want to explore.
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我想要探討的是那些結果。
00:23
And before we get to how future tech may affect us,
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在我們開始談未來科技可能 會對我們有什麼影響之前,
00:26
I'd like to spend a little time exploring the unintended consequences
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我想要先花點時間, 探究一些我們近期的科技造成的
00:30
of some of our recent tech,
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不在計畫中的結果,
00:32
namely, social media.
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這科技就是:社交媒體。
00:34
Social media, a few short years ago, was the tech of future you.
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在短短幾年前,社交媒體 是「未來的你」的科技。
00:39
Now it just is you.
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現在,它就只是「你」。
00:42
Social media was supposed to bring us together
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社交媒體應該要用我們從來沒有
00:44
in ways we could never imagine.
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想像過的方式把我們連結起來。
00:47
And the predictors were correct.
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預言者是對的。
00:50
These three girls are talking to one another
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這三個女孩是在跟彼此對談,
00:53
without the awkward discomfort of eye contact.
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還可以避免尷尬的眼神接觸。
00:56
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
00:57
I call that advancement.
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我把這稱為進步。
01:01
We were supposed to be caught up in a communication tsunami,
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我們應該要被捲入溝通的海嘯當中,
01:05
the likes of which the world has never seen.
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世界完全沒見過類似這樣的東西。
01:07
And that did happen.
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那的確發生了。
01:09
And so did this.
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而這也發生了。
01:13
(Sings) One of these things is not like the other.
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(唱歌)這些東西當中 有一個和其他的不一樣。
01:16
(Speaks) Now, look at this picture.
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(說話)看看這張照片。
01:17
If you picked the guy with the book, you’re wrong --
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如果你選拿書的那個人,你就錯了──
01:20
or, as a certain president would say, "Wrong!"
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或是某位總統會說:「錯!」
01:23
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
01:27
Clearly, three of these guys are reading,
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很顯然,當中有三個人在閱讀,
01:29
and one guy, on the end, is listening to music
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而在邊上的那個人則是在聽音樂,
01:32
and playing "Candy Crush."
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同時在玩「糖果傳奇」。
01:33
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
01:35
So are we more connected,
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所以,我們有比較連結嗎?
01:37
or are we just more connected to our devices?
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還是我們只是和我們的 裝置比較連結了?
01:42
Social media was supposed to place us in a veritable town square,
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社交媒體應該要把我們放在 一個稱得上是市鎮廣場的地方,
01:45
where we could engage one another with challenging ideas and debates.
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在那裡,我們可以用 挑戰性想法和辯論來彼此互動。
01:50
And instead what we got were trolls.
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結果,我們卻得到了惡搞。
01:53
This is an actual tweet that I received.
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這是我收到的真實推特訊息。
01:58
"Chuck, no one wants to hear your stupid, ill-informed political views!
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「查克,沒有人想要聽你那 愚蠢且孤陋寡聞的政治觀點!
02:02
I hope you get leprosy and die.
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我希望你得麻風病然後死掉。
02:04
Love, Dad"
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愛你的老爹敬上。」
02:06
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
02:08
Now, the great thing about that tweet if you look at it,
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推特有個優點,如果你仔細看看它,
02:11
just like most trolls, it's not that bad,
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就像大部分的惡搞,其實並不壞,
02:13
because he wished "leporsy" on me instead of "leprosy,"
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因為他希望我得的 是「麻風」而非「痲瘋」,
02:17
and "leporsy" is not dangerous at all.
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而麻風一點也不危險。 (註:英文是把 ro 拼成 or)
02:20
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
02:21
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
02:26
Along with trolls, we got a brand new way of torturing teenagers --
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除了惡搞之外,我們也得到了 一種折磨青少年的新方式──
02:30
cyberbullying.
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網路霸凌。
02:32
A concept that my 75-year-old mother just can't seem to wrap her head around.
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我七十五歲的老媽似乎 無法理解這個概念。
02:38
"So, uh, did they hit him?"
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「所以,呃,他們有打他嗎?」
02:40
"No, Mom, they didn't hit him."
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「沒有,媽,他們沒有打他。」
02:42
"Did they take his money?"
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「他們有拿他的錢嗎?」
02:43
"No, Mom, they didn't take his money."
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「沒有,媽,他們沒有拿他的錢。」
02:45
"Did they put his face in the toilet?"
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「他們有把他的臉塞到馬桶裡嗎?」
02:47
"No, Mom, they didn't --"
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「沒有,媽,他們沒有──」
02:48
"Well, what did they do?"
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「那他們做了什麼?」
02:50
"They attacked him on the internet."
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「他們在網路上攻擊他。」
02:52
"Attacked him on the internet?"
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「在網路上攻擊他?」
02:54
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
02:55
"Well, why don't you just turn off the internet?"
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「那你為什麼不把 那網路關掉就好了?」
02:57
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
02:59
"Your whole generation is a bunch of wussies."
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「你們這整個世代 都是一群軟弱的膿包。」
03:01
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
03:03
She's got a point.
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她說的有理。
03:04
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
03:06
She's got a point.
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她說的有理。
03:07
And I don't even want to talk about what social media has done to dating.
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我甚至不想去談社交媒體 對約會造成的影響。
03:11
I was on Grindr until I found out it wasn't a sandwich app.
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我一直在用 Grindr,直到我發現它不是 三明治 app。(註:男同志社交平台)
03:16
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
03:19
And I can't even tell you about Tinder,
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我就別跟你們說 Tinder 了, (註:一夜情約會 app)
03:23
except for the fact that if you think there is a limit
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只能說,如果你認為在地球上你能
03:27
to the amount of anonymous sex we can have on this planet,
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進行的匿名性交數量是有限的,
03:30
you are sadly mistaken.
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很不幸,你錯了。
03:32
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
03:33
So where do we go from here?
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所以,以上這些是什麼意思?
03:35
Well, let's just jump right in and play the hits.
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咱們就直接切入重點吧。
03:38
Driverless cars.
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無人駕駛汽車。
03:39
Something that has already been around for many years,
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這種車已經出現非常多年了,
03:42
just without the assistance of computers.
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只是沒有電腦的協助而已。
03:44
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
03:47
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
03:50
Because for years, we have been driving while texting,
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因為多年來,我們一邊 開車時還會一邊傳訊息、
03:54
putting on makeup,
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一邊化妝、
03:56
shaving, reading -- actually reading --
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一邊刮鬍子、閱讀──真的在閱讀──
03:59
that would be me.
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那是我會做的。
04:00
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
04:01
The other thing is that since driverless cars will be shared,
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還有一件事,因為 無人駕駛汽車將會是共乘的,
04:04
most people won't own cars,
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大部分人不會擁有汽車,
04:06
and that means the DMV will go away.
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機動車輛管理局(DMV)將會消失。
04:09
The DMV -- I know what you're saying right now.
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DMV──我知道你們現在在說什麼。
「這個傢伙不可能會站在這裡
04:11
"There's no way this guy is going to stand up here
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為 DMV 說好話。」
04:13
and make a case for the DMV."
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我不知道你們如何, 但我並不希望在我住的世界裡,
04:15
Well, I don't know about you, but I do not want to live in a world
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04:18
where harsh fluorescent lights,
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有刺眼的日光燈、
04:20
endless lines,
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看不到尾巴的排隊隊伍、
04:22
terrible forms to fill out
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要填寫很糟的表格,
04:24
and disaffected, soulless bureaucrats remind me
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以及充滿怨氣又無情的官僚,來提醒我
04:28
that I am pretty damn lucky not to work here.
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我不用在這裡工作是多幸運的事情。
04:31
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
04:33
That is the real service they provide.
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他們真正提供的就是那種服務。
04:36
The DMV:
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DMV:
04:37
come for the registration renewal,
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因為要換新駕照而來,
04:40
stay for the satisfaction of knowing you made some pretty good life choices.
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因為你對你做的人生選擇 感到滿意而留下。
04:44
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
04:49
Nobody will own their car in the future,
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在未來,沒有人會擁有自己的車,
04:51
and that means teenagers will not have a place to make out.
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那就表示,青少年少女 就沒地方可以親熱。
04:55
So you know what that means.
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你們知道那意味著什麼。
04:56
That means they will order driverless cars to do just that.
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那意味著,他們會為了親熱 而預約無人駕駛汽車。
05:00
I do not want to step into a vehicle and ask the question:
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我並不想踏入一台車時 還要問這個問題:
05:04
"Why does this car smell like awkwardness, failure and shame?"
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「為什麼這台車聞起來 有尷尬、失敗和羞恥的味道?」
05:09
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
05:12
If I want to ask that question, I'll walk into my own bedroom.
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如果我想要問那個問題, 我會走進我自己的臥房。
05:15
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
05:17
So what else do we have to look forward to?
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所以,我們還能期待什麼?
05:19
That's right, artificial intelligence.
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沒錯,人工智慧。
05:21
Artificial intelligence, yes.
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人工智慧,是的。
05:23
You know, there was a time when artificial intelligence was a joke.
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曾經有個時期, 人工智慧只是個笑話。
05:26
I mean, literally a quip that you would hear at a cocktail party
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真的就是你在雞尾酒派對上 會聽到的玩笑話,
05:30
when somebody would bring it up in conversation:
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有人可能會在談話間提到:
05:32
"Artificial intelligence.
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「人工智慧。
05:34
The only real artificial intelligence is our American Congress.
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唯一的人工智慧就是 我們的美國國會。
05:38
Ha, ha, ha, ha, ha."
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哈哈哈哈哈。」
05:40
Well, it's not funny anymore.
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嗯,那不再好笑了。
05:41
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
05:48
Stephen Hawking, Elon Musk and Bill Gates have all gone on record
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史帝芬霍金、伊隆馬斯克、 比爾蓋茲都有正式公開
05:51
expressing grave reservations about artificial intelligence.
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表示他們對人工智慧 持嚴肅保留態度。
05:55
That's like Jesus, Moses and Muhammad coming together and saying,
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那就像是耶穌、摩西、 穆罕默德都聚集在一起,說:
05:59
"Guy, guys -- here's something we can all believe in."
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「各位,各位──這裡有件事, 大家都能相信。」
06:02
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
06:03
You might want to go with that, is all I'm saying.
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我只是在說,你可能會想要相信。
06:07
We are actually teaching machines how to think,
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我們是在教導機器如何思考、
06:11
how to understand our behavior,
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如何了解我們的行為、
06:14
how to defend themselves and even practice deception.
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如何保衛它們自己,甚至進行欺騙。
06:18
What could possibly go wrong?
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怎麼可能會出問題呢?
06:20
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
06:23
The one thing that's for sure:
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有一件事是肯定的:
06:25
the creation always despises its creator.
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被創造物都會看不起它的創造者。
06:29
OK?
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對吧?
06:30
The Titans rose up against the gods;
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泰坦起義對抗眾神;
06:32
Lucifer against Jehovah.
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路西法對抗耶和華。
06:34
And anybody who has a teenager has heard these words:
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家中有青少年少女的人 都聽過這句話:
06:37
"I hate you and you're ruining my life!
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「我恨你,你毀了我的人生!
06:39
I hate you!"
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我恨你!」
06:42
Now just imagine that sentiment with a machine that can outthink you
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想像那樣的情緒,
只是角色換成是在思想上超越你 且有強大武裝火力的機器。
06:46
and is heavily armed.
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06:48
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
06:51
The result?
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結果呢?
06:52
Absolutely.
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當然。
06:54
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
06:58
What we need to do before we perfect artificial intelligence
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在我們把人工智慧做到完美之前,
07:02
is perfect artificial emotions.
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要先把人工情緒做到完美。
07:04
That way, we can teach the robots or machines
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那樣一來,我們就能 教導機器人或機器
07:08
how to love us unconditionally,
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如何無條件地愛我們,
07:11
so that when they figure out that the only real problem on this planet
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所以,當他們想通了原來 在地球上唯一真正的問題
07:15
is us,
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就是我們時,
07:16
instead of destroying us --
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他們就不會摧毀我們──
07:18
which, by the way, is totally logical --
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其實摧毀我們是完全合邏輯的──
07:21
they will find us adorable --
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他們反而會覺得我們很可愛──
07:24
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
07:25
like baby poop.
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就像寶寶的大便。
07:26
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
07:27
"Oh my god, I just love the way you just destroyed the planet.
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「喔,天啊,我好愛你們 摧毀這個星球的方式。
07:30
I can't stay mad at you, you're so cute!
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我實在無法對你們生氣, 你們好可愛!
07:33
You're so cute!"
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你們好可愛!」
07:34
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
07:36
Can't talk about this without talking about robotics. OK?
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談到這個,就一定會 談到機器人,對吧?
07:43
Remember when you thought robotics were cool?
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記得以前你們會覺得機器人很酷嗎?
07:45
I remember when I thought robotics were cool,
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我還記得我以前覺得機器人很酷,
07:47
until I figured out that they were going to take everybody's place,
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直到我發現它們將會取代每個人,
從送貨員一直到心臟外科醫生。
07:50
from the delivery guy down to the heart surgeon.
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但,機器人有一點是很讓人失望的,
07:52
The one thing, though, that is very disappointing about robotics
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07:55
is the holy grail of robotics,
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就是機器人的聖杯,
那甚至還沒發生。
07:57
and it hasn't even happened.
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07:58
I'm talking about the robot girlfriend,
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我在說的,是機器人女友,
08:00
the dream of one lonely geek in a windowless basement
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在沒有窗戶的地下室, 一個寂寞怪胎的夢想,
08:04
who vowed one day: "I am going to marry my creation."
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有一天他發誓: 「我要娶我的創造物。」
08:08
And there actually is a movement underway to stop this from happening,
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其實現在就有一項運動在進行中, 目的是要阻止這件事發生,
08:13
for fear of exploitation.
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因為害怕剝削。
08:16
And I, for one, am against that movement.
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而我是反對這項運動的人之一,
08:20
I believe we should have robot girlfriends.
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我認為我們應該要有機器人女友。
08:23
I just believe that they should come with a feminist protocol
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我認為它們應該要加上女性主義思想
08:27
and artificial intelligence,
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以及人工智慧,
08:29
so she can take one look at that guy and go, "I am too good for you.
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這麼一來,她可以看一眼那傢伙, 然後說:「你配不上我。
08:33
I'm leaving."
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我要走了。」
08:35
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
08:36
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
08:40
And finally,
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最後,
08:42
I have to talk about bioengineering,
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我得要談談生物工程,
08:44
an area of science that promises to end disease before it even begins,
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它是一個科學領域,保證在 疾病爆發之前就把它終止,
08:51
to help us live longer, fuller, healthier lives.
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協助我們過著更長壽、 更豐足、更健康的生活。
08:57
And when you couple that with implantable hardware,
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如果你把它 和可植入的硬體連結起來,
09:00
you are looking at the next incarnation of human evolution.
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你在看的就是下一波的人類演化。
09:04
And all of that sounds great,
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那些全都聽起來很美好,
09:07
until you figure out where it's really going.
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直到你發現這條路會通到什麼結果。
09:09
One place:
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那就是:
09:11
designer babies,
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設計出來的寶寶,
09:13
where, no matter where you are on the globe
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不論你在世界的什麼地方,
09:15
or what your ethnicity,
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不論你是哪個人種,
09:17
babies will end up looking like that.
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寶寶最後都會像這樣。
09:19
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
09:21
That boy is surprised
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那個男孩很驚訝,
09:24
because he just found out both his parents are black.
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因為他剛剛發現他的父母都是黑人。
09:27
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
09:35
Can you imagine him at a cocktail party in 20 years?
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你們能想像二十年後 他參加雞尾酒派對的情況?
09:39
"Yeah, both my parents are black.
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「是的,我的父母都是黑人。
09:41
I mean, it's a little awkward at times,
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有時候是有點尷尬,
09:43
but you should see my credit rating.
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但你應該要看我的信用積分。
09:45
Impressive, very impressive."
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很讓人印象深刻,非常。」
09:46
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
09:49
Now, all of this seems scary,
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這一切似乎蠻駭人的,
09:51
and everybody in this room knows that it isn't.
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這間房間的每個人都知道並非如此。
09:54
Technology isn't scary.
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科技並不駭人。
09:56
Never has been and it never will be.
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從來就不駭人,以後也不會駭人。
10:00
What's scary is us
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駭人的是我們,
10:02
and what we will do with technology.
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以及我們會用科技做出的事。
10:05
Will we allow it to expose our humanity,
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我們會容許它揭露出我們的人性,
10:09
showing our true selves
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呈現出我們的真實自我,
10:11
and reinforcing the fact that we are indeed our brother's keeper?
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並強化我們的確是我們 兄弟的守護者的這個事實?
10:16
Or will we allow it to reveal our deepest, darkest demons?
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或者,我們會容許它揭示出 我們最深處最黑暗的惡魔?
10:22
The true question is not whether or not technology is scary.
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真正的問題並非科技是否駭人。
10:28
The true question is:
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真正的問題是:
10:30
How human
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你多有人性?
10:31
are you?
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10:33
Thank you.
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謝謝。
10:34
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
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