Paul MacCready: Nature vs. humans, and what we can do about

翻译人员: Jiping Ma 校对人员: Tony Yet

You hear that this is the era of environment -- or biology, or information technology ...

这是一个以环境，生态，或者信息技术为主导的时代--

Well, it's the era of a lot of different things

呃，一个关于很多不同事物的年代

that we're in right now. But one thing for sure:

但有一件事情是肯定的：

it's the era of change. There's more change going on

这是一个变化的时代。现在正在发生的改变比

than ever has occurred in the history of human life on earth.

地球人类生活历史上发生过的都要多。

And you all sort of know it, but it's hard to get it

大家都好像知道，但要表达出来

so that you really understand it.

让人真正理解却又很难。

And I've tried to put together something that's a good start for this.

我一直试着整理出一些东西来开个好头。

I've tried to show in this -- though the color doesn't come out --

我试着用这个来表现，虽然这里看不出颜色。

that what I'm concerned with is the little 50-year time bubble

我关注的是一个人所处的一个50年长的时间小泡沫。

that you are in. You tend to be interested in a generation past,

人一般感兴趣的是过去的一代，

a generation future -- your parents, your kids, things you can change

未来的一代；你的父母，你的孩子，在接下来

over the next few decades -- and this 50-year time bubble

几十年里你可以改变的东西，这就是你所经历的一个

you kind of move along in. And in that 50 years,

50年时间泡沫。在那50年里，

if you look at the population curve, you find the population of humans

如果你看一下这条人口曲线，你可以发现地球的人口数

on the earth more than doubles and we're up three-and-a-half times

已经增加了不止一倍，自从我出生以来，我们已经是

since I was born. When you have a new baby,

原来的3.5倍了。当你有一个初生儿，

by the time that kid gets out of high school

到孩子高中毕业的时候

more people will be added than existed on earth when I was born.

增加的人口数要比我出生时的总人口还要多--

This is unprecedented, and it's big.

这是前所未有的，这是巨大的数量。

Where it goes in the future is questioned. So that's the human part.

我们要问的是它将何去何从。这是关于人类的部分。

Now, the human part related to animals: look at the left side of that.

现在来看看人类和动物们的关系：请看图的左边。

What I call the human portion -- humans and their livestock and pets --

我称之为人类部分--人类和他们的牲畜和宠物--

versus the natural portion -- all the other wild animals and just --

相对于自然部分--所有其他的野生动物而且只有--

these are vertebrates and all the birds, etc.,

这些是脊椎动物和所有的鸟类，等等。

in the land and air, not in the water. How does it balance?

陆上的和空中的，不包括水生的。它是如何平衡的呢？

Certainly, 10,000 years ago, the civilization's beginning,

呃，当然一万年前，文明之初，

the human portion was less than one tenth of one percent. Let's look at it now.

人类部分不足千分之一。让我们看看现在。

You follow this curve and you see the whiter spot in the middle --

你沿着这条曲线可以看到中间的白点--

that's your 50-year time bubble. Humans, livestock and pets

这是你的50年时间泡沫。人，牲畜和宠物

are now 97 percent of that integrated total mass on earth

现在是整个地球群体的百分之九十七

and all wild nature is three percent. We have won. The next generation

而整个野生自然是百分之三。我们赢了。我们的下一代

doesn't even have to worry about this game -- it is over.

根本不要去担心这场比赛--它已经结束了。

And the biggest problem came in the last 25 years:

而过去25年里最大的问题来了：

it went from 25 percent up to that 97 percent.

我们从百分之二十五上升到了百分之九十七。

And this really is a sobering picture upon realizing that we, humans,

这张图让我们清醒地认识到我们，人类，

are in charge of life on earth; we're like the capricious Gods

要对地球的生命负责，我们像希腊神话中反复无常的众神

of old Greek myths, kind of playing with life --

有点像在拿地球的生命开玩笑，

and not a great deal of wisdom injected into it.

而没有倾注过多的智慧。

Now, the third curve is information technology.

现在，这第三条曲线是信息技术。

This is Moore's Law plotted here, which relates to density

这里标绘了摩尔定律，它和信息的密度有关

of information, but it has been pretty good for showing

它也很好地展示了

a lot of other things about information technology --

关于信息技术的其他事物：

computers, their use, Internet, etc. And what's important

计算机，计算机应用，互联网，等。重要的是

is it just goes straight up through the top of the curve,

曲线在上端笔直上升

and has no real limits to it. Now try and contrast these.

它没有真正的界限。而把这些对照过来

This is the size of the earth going through that same --

地球的尺寸标线也是一样的走向

(Laughter)

（笑声）

-- frame. And to make it really clear, I've put all four on one graph.

为了让它很明白，我把四张图放在一张里--

There's no need to see the little detailed words on it.

不用去看里面具体的小字

That first one is humans-versus-nature;

第一张是人类和自然的比较。

we've won, there's no more gain. Human population.

我们已经赢了，没有更多可以索取。人类人口。

And so if you're looking for growth industries to get into,

所以如果你寻求进入增长型行业的话，

that's not a good one -- protecting natural creatures. Human population

保护自然生物--前景可不太好。人类人口

is going up; it's going to continue for quite a while.

正在增长；它还将持续很长一段时间。

Good business in obstetricians, morticians, and farming, housing, etc. --

产科医生，殡仪业者，还有农业，房产业等的业务看好--

they all deal with human bodies, which require being fed,

它们都和人的身体打交道--需要被喂养，

transported, housed and so on. And the information technology,

运输，和庇护等等。而信息技术，

which connects to our brains, has no limit -- now, that is a wonderful

它连接我们的大脑，不受限制--是一个可以参与的

field to be in. You're looking for growth opportunity?

绝佳领域。你寻找增长机会的话--

It's just going up through the roof.

它正一飞冲天。

And then, the size of the Earth. Somehow making these all compatible

而地球大小本身的限制，从某种程度上使那些扩大地球兼容能力

with the Earth looks like a pretty bad industry to be involved with.

的行业让人望而却步。

So, that's the stage out of all this. I find,

所以，这就是所有这些的现状。我发现，

for reasons I don't understand, I really do have a goal.

很多原因让我不理解，我确实有个目标。

And the goal is that the world be desirable and sustainable

目标就是当我的孩子到了我这个年纪

when my kids reach my age -- and I think that's -- in other words,

世界变得可爱和可持续的。而且我觉得那是-换句话说，

the next generation. I think that's a goal that we probably all share.

是我们的下一代。我觉得这大概是我们大家共有的目标。

I think it's a hopeless goal. Technologically, it's achievable;

我觉得它是一个没什么希望的目标。技术上说它是可实现的，

economically, it's achievable; politically,

经济上它是可实现的，政治上说它是--

it means sort of the habits, institutions of people -- it's impossible.

它代表了某种习惯，人们的惯例，它是不可能的。

The institutions of the past with all their inertia

过去的惯例和所有的惰性

are just irrelevant for the future, except they're there

看来和未来毫不相关，除了他们是真实存在的

and we have to deal with them. I spend about 15 percent of my time

而我们必须处理他们。我花了15%的时间

trying to save the world, the other 85 percent, the usual --

试图拯救世界，其他的85%做些平常的事... ...

and whatever else we devote ourselves to.

任何我们致力于的事情。

And in that 15 percent, the main focus is on human mind, thinking skills,

在那15%中，主要关注的是人类的思维-思考的技巧，

somehow trying to unleash kids from the straightjacket of school,

试着把孩子从学校的束缚中解放出来

which is putting information and dogma into them,

学校只是把信息和教条灌输给他们。

get them so they really think, ask tough questions, argue

让他们能真正地思考，问尖锐的问题，辩论

about serious subjects, don't believe everything that's in the book,

严肃的话题，不照本宣科。

think broadly or creative. They can be.

广泛地或创造性地思考。他们可以这样。

Our school systems are very flawed and do not reward you

我们的学校系统有很多缺陷，不鼓励你做

for the things that are important in life

对生活来说重要的事情

or for the survival of civilization; they reward you

或者做延续文明的事情。

for a lot of learning and sopping up stuff.

他们鼓励很多学习和吸收事物。

We can't go into that today because there isn't time --

我们今天由于时间关系就无法详说了--

it's a broad subject. One thing for sure, in the future

它是一个广泛的主题。可以确定的一件事是，

there is an essential feature -- necessary, but not sufficient --

未来有一个最根本的特征--必要的，但不是充分方面--

which is doing more with less. We've got to be doing things

就是用更少做更多。我们必须做事情

with more efficiency using less energy, less material.

更有效率，使用更少的能源，更少的材料。

Your great-great grandparents got by on muscle power,

你们的曾曾祖父靠肌肉力量生存

and yet we all think there's this huge power that's essential

而我们都认为我们的生活方式主要是靠着某种巨大的力量支持。

for our lifestyle. And with all the wonderful technology we have

依靠我们所有的这些神奇的技术

we can do things that are much more efficient: conserve, recycle, etc.

我们可以做更有效的事情：生态保护，循环利用等。

Let me just rush very quickly through things that we've done.

让我快速地过一遍我们完成的事情。

Human-powered airplane -- Gossamer Condor sort of started me

人体动力飞机--1976，77年的“游丝秃鹫”算是

in this direction in 1976 and 77,

开始了我在这个方向的工作，

winning the Kremer prize in aviation history,

它赢得了飞行历史上的Kremer奖，

followed by the Albatross. And we began

第二个叫“信天翁”。接着我们开始

making various odd planes and creatures.

制作各种各样古怪的飞机和作品。

Here's a giant flying replica of a pterosaur that has no tail.

这是仿制了一个大型的无尾翼龙。

Trying to have it fly straight is like trying to shoot an arrow

让它直线飞行就像射一支羽毛端

with the feathered end forward. It was a tough job,

朝前的箭。难度很大。

and boy it made me have a lot of respect for nature.

好家伙！其间让我对自然产生了很大的尊敬。

This was the full size of the original creature.

这是全尺寸的原始作品。

We did things on land, in the air, on water --

我们有在陆上，空中和水上

vehicles of all different kinds, usually with some electronics

制作各种交通工具，通常上面带有电子或者

or electric power systems in them. I find they're all the same,

电力动能系统。我发现他们都是一样的。

whether its land, air or water.

我不管是陆上，空中还是水上的。

I'll be focusing on the air here. This is a solar-powered airplane --

我在这里将关注的是空中的。这是一架太阳能飞机--

165 miles carrying a person from France to England

运载一人从法国到英国飞行了165英里

as a symbol that solar power is going to be an important part

标志着太阳能在我们的未来将担当重要角色。

of our future. Then we did the solar car for General Motors --

然后我们为通用公司制作了太阳能汽车--

the Sunracer -- that won the race in Australia.

“太阳赛跑者”，它赢得了在澳大利亚的比赛。

We got a lot of people thinking about electric cars,

我们有很多人在思考电动车，

what you could do with them. A few years later, when we suggested to GM that

我们可以用它来干嘛。几年后，当我们建议通用

now is the time and we could do a thing called the Impact,

时机已经成熟，我们可以做一个叫“影响力”的东西时，

they sponsored it, and here's the Impact that we developed with them

他们提供了赞助，而这是我们和他们项目开发的“影响力”。

on their programs. This is the demonstrator. And they put huge effort

这是示范版。他们尽了巨大的努力

into turning it into a commercial product.

把它变成商业产品。

With that preamble, let's show the first two-minute videotape,

开场白结束，让我们来看第一段两分钟的视频录像

which shows a little airplane for surveillance

它展示了一架小型监察飞机

and moving to a giant airplane.

变成一架巨型机。

Narrator: A tiny airplane, the AV Pointer serves for surveillance --

一架小飞机，“AV 指针”是起监察作用的：

in effect, a pair of roving eyeglasses. A cutting-edge example

实际上是一对粗纱镜片。一个尖端的例子

of where miniaturization can lead if the operator is remote

显示了当操作员远程控制时小型化设备能

from the vehicle. It is convenient to carry, assemble

起到先导的作用。它便于携带，装配

and launch by hand. Battery-powered, it is silent and rarely noticed.

和手工发动。它使用电池，很安静，几乎难以察觉。

It sends high-resolution video pictures back to the operator.

它将高分辨率的视频图片传送回操作员。

With onboard GPS, it can navigate autonomously,

利用随身携带的GPS，它可以自动驾驶，

and it is rugged enough to self-land without damage.

它足够粗旷，可以无损坏自动着陆。

The modern sailplane is superbly efficient.

现代的滑翔机超级的高效。

Some can glide as flat as 60 feet forward for every foot of descent.

有些可以每下降一英尺向前平滑60英尺。

They are powered only by the energy

他们仅通过从大气中

they can extract from the atmosphere --

可以吸取的能量来产生动能--

an atmosphere nature stirs up by solar energy.

一个被太阳能激起的自然大气。

Humans and soaring birds have found nature to be generous

人类和飞鸟已经发现大自然在

in providing replenishable energy. Sailplanes have flown

提供持续能力方面是非常慷慨的。滑翔机飞行了

over 1,000 miles, and the altitude record is over 50,000 feet.

超过1，000英里，海拔记录超过50，000英尺。

(Music)

（音乐）

The Solar Challenger was made to serve as a symbol

制作“太阳挑战者”标志着

that photovoltaic cells can produce real power

硒电池能产生真正的能量

and will be part of the world's energy future.

将成为世界能源未来的一部分。

In 1981, it flew 163 miles from Paris to England,

1981年，它从巴黎到英国飞行了163英里

solely on the power of sunbeams,

单单靠阳光动能，

and established a basis for the Pathfinder.

为“探路者”打下了一个基础。

(Music)

（音乐）

The message from all these vehicles is that ideas and technology

所有这些交通工具中包含的信息是：想法和技术

can be harnessed to produce remarkable gains in doing more with less --

可以用来生产出事半功倍的非凡收益；

gains that can help us attain a desirable balance

这些收益可以帮助我们达到

between technology and nature. The stakes are high

技术和自然的理想平衡。当我们加速向一个

as we speed toward a challenging future.

充满挑战的未来前进的时，风险是高的。

Buckminster Fuller said it clearly: "there are no passengers

Buckminster Fuller清楚地说过：在地球这架

on spaceship Earth, only crew. We, the crew,

太空船上没有乘客，只有船员。我们，就是船员，

can and must do more with less -- much less."

可以而且必须以更少，少得多做到更多。

Paul MacCready: If we could have the second video, the one-minute,

如果我们有第二个视频，一分钟的，

put in as quickly as you can, which -- this will show

尽快地放进去，这个-这个将展示

the Pathfinder airplane in some flights this past year in Hawaii,

“探路者”飞机去年在夏威夷的几次飞行，

and will show a sequence of some of the beauty behind it

还展示在它完成飞行71，530英尺之后

after it had just flown to 71,530 feet --

一系列背后的美妙之处--

higher than any propeller airplane has ever flown.

比任何螺旋桨飞机飞得都要高。

It's amazing: just on the puny power of the sun --

它很神奇，仅仅依靠太阳的微弱能量-

by having a super lightweight plane, you're able to get it up there.

通过一架超轻量飞机，你可以让它飞起来。

It's part of a long-term program NASA sponsored.

这是一项NASA支持的长期项目的一部分。

And we worked very closely with the whole thing being a team effort,

我们整个项目团结合作，通过团队的努力

and with wonderful results like that flight.

得到像那次飞行一样的很棒的结果。

And we're working on a bigger plane -- 220-foot span --

而我们正在做一架更大的的飞机--跨度220英尺--

and an intermediate-size, one with a regenerative fuel cell

和一架带再生燃料电池的中型飞机

that can store excess energy during the day, feed it back at night,

它可以在白天储存过多的能量，在夜间把它输回去，

and stay up 65,000 feet for months at a time.

每次可以几个月昼夜停留在65，000的高度。

(Music)

（音乐）

Ray Morgan's voice will come in here.

这里会出现Ray Morgan的声音。

There he's the project manager. Anything they do

他是项目经理。他们所作的一切

is certainly a team effort. He ran this program. Here's ...

无疑是团队协作的结果。他管理这个项目。这里

some things he showed as a celebration at the very end.

他展示了一个最终的庆典仪式。

Ray Morgan: We'd just ended a seven-month deployment of Hawaii.

我们刚在夏威夷结束了一个七个月长的部署。

For those who live on the mainland, it was tough being away from home.

对于住在大陆的人来说，远离家人是比较艰苦的。

The friendly support, the quiet confidence, congenial hospitality

我们夏威夷的朋友和军队主办方表示了友好的支持，

shown by our Hawaiian and military hosts --

无声的信心，适宜的款待--

(Music)

（音乐）

this is starting --

这是开始了--

made the experience enjoyable and unforgettable.

让我们的经历很愉快和难忘。

PM: We have real-time IR scans going out through the Internet

当飞机在飞行时，我们有通过互联网传出的

while the plane is flying. And it's exploring

实时的红外线扫描图像。它探测时

without polluting the stratosphere. That's its goal: the stratosphere,

不会污染平流层。那是它的目标：平流层，

the blanket that really controls the radiation of the earth

是真正控制地球辐射的毯子，

and permits life on earth to be the success that it is --

它允许了地球上的生命如此兴旺。

probing that is very important. And also we consider it

对那儿的探索是很重要的。同时我们把它

as a sort of poor man's stationary satellite,

叫做可怜人的同步卫星，

because it can stay right overhead for months at a time,

因为它可以每次在正头顶上停留数个月--

2,000 times closer than the real GFC synchronous satellite.

比真正的GFC同步卫星近2，000倍。

We couldn't bring one here to fly it and show you.

我们没法带一个到现场来飞给你们看。

But now let's look at the other end.

但现在让我看看另一端。好。我展示了-

In the video you saw that nine-pound or eight-pound Pointer airplane

在视频里你看到了那个八九英镑的“探路者”

surveillance drone that Keenan has developed

Keenan开发的无人驾驶监察机

and just done a remarkable job. Where some have servos

干得很漂亮。有些飞机的的伺服系统

that have gotten down to, oh, 18 or 25 grams,

已经降到了，呃，18或25克，

his weigh one-third of a gram. And what he's going to bring out here

他的只重三分之一克。他将在这里拿出来的

is a surveillance drone that weighs about 2 ounces --

是一架只有2盎司重的无人驾驶监察机--

that includes the video camera, the batteries that run it,

那还包括了摄像头，给它动力的电池，

the telemetry, the receiver and so on. And we'll fly it, we hope,

遥测器，接收器和其它。我们会让它飞一下，我们希望，

with the same success that we had last night when we did the practice.

和昨天晚上试飞的时候一样成功。

So Matt Keenan, just any time you're --

来Matt Keenan，只要你--

all right

好了

-- ready to let her go. But first, we're going to make sure

--准备好让她飞了。但是首先，我们要确保

that it's appearing on the screen, so you see what it sees.

它将在屏幕上出现，你会看到它看到的，

You can imagine yourself being a mouse or fly inside of it,

你可以把自己想象成一只老鼠，或者在它里面飞行

looking out of its camera.

透过它的镜头往外看。

Matt Keenan: It's switched on.

它被接通了。

PM: But now we're trying to get the video. There we go.

但现在我们试一下影像。好了。

MK: Can you bring up the house lights?

你能打亮观众席的灯吗？

PM: Yeah, the house lights and we'll see you all better

好，灯亮了，我们可以更好地看到你们

and be able to fly the plane better.

还能更好地飞这架飞机。

MK: All right, we'll try to do a few laps around and bring it back in.

行，我们将试着绕几个圈然后把它飞回来。

Here we go.

开始了。

(Applause)

（掌声）

PM: The video worked right for the first few and I don't know why it --

录像开始一会儿工作正常，我不知道为什么它--

there it goes.

好了。

Oh, that was only a minute, but I think you'd be safe

哦，那才只有一分钟，可我想

to have that near the end of the flight, perhaps.

到飞行快结束时碰到它你将是安全的，也许。

We get to do the classic.

我们得做经典的。

All right.

好。

If this hits you, it will not hurt you.

假如这个撞到你，它不会伤害你。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

OK.

OK。

(Applause)

（掌声）

Thank you very much. Thank you.

非常感谢，谢谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）

But now, as they say in infomercials,

但是现在，就像他们在信息广告里说的，

we have something much better for you, which we're working on:

我们为你准备了还要好得多的东西，我们正在做的：

planes that are only six inches -- 15 centimeters -- in size.

只有6英寸的飞机-15厘米-大小。

And Matt's plane was on the cover of Popular Science last month,

Matt的飞机上个月登上了《流行科学》的封面，

showing what this can lead to. And in a while, something this size

展示了这个可以引导的未来。待会儿，这个大小的东西

will have GPS and a video camera in it. We've had one of these fly

将带有GPS和摄像头。我们用其中的一个

nine miles through the air at 35 miles an hour

在空中以35英里每小时的速度飞行了9英里

with just a little battery in it.

它里面只带了一点电池。

But there's a lot of technology going.

但是背后运用了大量的技术。

There are just milestones along the way of some remarkable things.

这只是一系列非凡事物中的几个里程碑。

This one doesn't have the video in it,

这个没有内置摄像头，

but you get a little feel from what it can do.

但是你会从它能做的事情中有所感触。

OK, here we go.

好，我们开始了。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

MK: Sorry.

对不起。

OK.

好。

(Applause)

（掌声）

PM: If you can pass it down when you're done. Yeah, I think --

你好以后请传一下下去。是的，我觉得--

I lost a little orientation; I looked up into this light.

我有点失去方向了。我向上面的灯看，但是

It hit the building. And the building was poorly placed, actually.

它碰到的是房子。而房子的位子摆的不是很好，事实上。

(Laughter)

（笑声)

But you're beginning to see what can be done.

但你正开始理解我们可以做到什么。

We're working on projects now -- even wing-flapping things

我们现在在做项目，甚至是拍打翅膀的东西

the size of hawk moths -- DARPA contracts, working with Caltech, UCLA.

天蛾的大小，DARPA合同，跟UCLA的加州科技合作。

Where all this leads, I don't know. Is it practical? I don't know.

这将引向何方，我不知道。它实用吗？我不知道。

But like any basic research, when you're really forced to do things

但是就像任何基础研究，当你真的被迫去做

that are way beyond existing technology,

已经远远超过现有技术的事情时，

you can get there with micro-technology, nanotechnology.

你可以通过微技术，纳米技术来达成。

You can do amazing things when you realize

当你意识到自然一直在做什么时，

what nature has been doing all along. As you get to these small scales,

你可以做成一些神奇的事情。当你处在这些小衡量范围时，

you realize we have a lot to learn from nature -- not with 747s --

你意识到我们可以向自然学到很多--不是通过747--

but when you get down to the nature's realm,

但是当你来到自然的领域，

nature has 200 million years of experience.

自然有两亿年的经验，

It never makes a mistake. Because if you make a mistake,

它从来没有犯过一个错误。因为你一旦犯错误，

you don't leave any progeny.

你不会留下任何后裔。

We should have nothing but success stories from nature,

我们除了自然的成功故事没有别的，

for you or for birds, and we're learning a lot

对于你或对于鸟类，我们正在

from its fascinating subjects.

这个令人着迷的课题中学到很多。

In concluding, I want to get back to the big picture

总结一下，我想回到大屏幕

and I have just two final slides to try and put it in perspective.

我试着用最后两张幻灯片来分析问题。

The first I'll just read. At last, I put in three sentences

第一张，我就读一下了。最后我把我想说的

and had it say what I wanted.

总结为三个句子。

Over billions of years on a unique sphere, chance has painted

在几亿多年里，在一个特殊的球体上，机遇描绘了

a thin covering of life -- complex, improbable, wonderful

一层薄薄的生命图：复杂的，意想不到的，美好的

and fragile. Suddenly, we humans -- a recently arrived species,

并且脆弱的。突然，我们人类，一个降临不久的物种，

no longer subject to the checks and balances inherent in nature --

不再遵从自然内固有的相互制衡，

have grown in population, technology and intelligence

人口，科技和智力不断增长

to a position of terrible power. We now wield the paintbrush.

到达了一个拥有可怕能力的地位。我们现在挥舞着画笔，

And that's serious: we're not very bright. We're short on wisdom;

这是严肃的。我们不是很聪明。我们智慧不足；

we're high on technology. Where's it going to lead?

我们科技很强。它将走向何方？

Well, inspired by the sentences, I decided to wield the paintbrush.

好，从这些句子中得到灵感，我觉定挥动这个画笔。

Every 25 years I do a picture. Here's the one --

我每25年画一张图。这是一张--

tries to show that the world isn't getting any bigger.

试图展示这个世界是不再变大的。

Sort of a timeline, very non-linear scale, nature rates

可以说是一条时间轴，很非线性的刻度，自然比率

and trilobites and dinosaurs, and eventually we saw some humans

三叶虫和恐龙，最后我们看到人类

with caves ... Birds were flying overhead, after pterosaurs.

和山洞...翼龙之后鸟类在头上飞翔。

And then we get to the civilization above the little TV set

然后我们来到了上面有个小电视机和一把枪的

with a gun on it. Then traffic jams, and power systems,

文明世界。然后交通阻塞，能量系统，

and some dots for digital. Where it's going to lead -- I have no idea.

和一些点代表数字-它将走向何处，我不知道。

And so I just put robotic and natural cockroaches out there,

所以我就在那儿放了机器和普通的蟑螂，

but you can fill in whatever you want. This is not a forecast.

但是你可以填上任何你想的东西。这不是一个预测。

This is a warning, and we have to think seriously about it.

这是一个警告，我们必须对它进行认真的思考。

And that time when this is happening is not 100 years or 500 years.

而它将发生的时间不是在100年或500年后。

Things are going on this decade, next decade;

这个十年，下个十年一切正在发生。

it's a very short time that we have to decide what we are going to do.

我们必须做出未来做什么的决定，时间很紧迫。

And if we can get some agreement on where we want the world to be --

假如我们在世界未来的问题上达成一些共识--

desirable, sustainable when your kids reach your age --

理想的，当你的孩子到你的年龄时还是可持续的--

I think we actually can reach it. Now, I said this was a warning,

我想我们实际上是可以做到的。我说了这是一个警告

not a forecast. That was before --

不是一个预言。那是以前了--

I painted this before we started in on making robotic versions

我画了这个之后开始制作机器版的

of hawk moths and cockroaches, and now I'm beginning to wonder

天蛾和蟑螂，现在我开始认真地思考

seriously -- was this more of a forecast than I wanted?

这是不是比我想的还更是一个预言呢？

I personally think the surviving intelligent life form on earth

我个人觉得在地球上生存的智能生命形态

is not going to be carbon-based; it's going to be silicon-based.

将来不会是以碳为主的；而将是以硅为主。

And so where it all goes, I don't know.

那么未来会是怎样，我不知道。

The one final bit of sparkle we'll put in at the very end here

我们最后要在这里呈现的最后一点灵感火花

is an utterly impractical flight vehicle,

是一个彻底不切实际的飞行器，

which is a little ornithopter wing-flapping device that --

这是一个小的扑翼飞行装置--

rubber-band powered -- that we'll show you.

用橡皮筋提供能量--我们会给你看的。

MK: 32 gram. Sorry, one gram.

32克。不好意思，1克。

PM: Last night we gave it a few too many turns

不超过1克。昨晚我们发条多转了好几圈

and it tried to bash the roof out also. It's about a gram.

它试图冲出房顶。它大概重一克。

The tube there's hollow, about paper-thin.

管子中空，大约纸张一样薄。

And if this lands on you, I assure you it will not hurt you.

如果它落在你身上，我保证你不会受伤。

But if you reach out to grab it or hold it, you will destroy it.

但如果你伸手去抓它或握它，你会毁了它。

So, be gentle, just act like a wooden Indian or something.

所以，温柔一点，请小心翼翼对待。

And when it comes down -- and we'll see how it goes.

它飞下来的时候--我们会看到效果怎样。

We consider this to be sort of the spirit of TED.

我们把这看做TED精神的一种。

(Applause)

(掌声)

And you wonder, is it practical? And it turns out if I had not been --

你会想说，它有实际用途吗？原来我没有--

(Laughter)

（笑声）

(Applause)

（掌声）

Unfortunately, we have some light bulb changes.

很不幸，我们要换几个灯泡。

We can probably get it down,

我们也许可以把它拿下来，

but it's possible it's gone up to a greater destiny up there --

但也可能它在那上面有更好的归宿--

(Laughter)

（笑声）

-- than it ever had. And I wanted to make --

--比起它以前有过的归宿。我想--

(Applause)

（掌声）

just --

-就-

(Applause)

（掌声）

But I want to make just two points. One is, you think it's frivolous;

但是我想说就两点。一个是，你觉得它无足轻重；

there's nothing to it. And yet if I had not been making ornithopters

不带任何东西。如果我没有一直从事制作扑翼飞机

like that, a little bit cruder, in 1939 -- a long, long time ago --

像那个一样，稍微再简陋些，1939年--很久很久以前--

there wouldn't have been a Gossamer Condor,

就不会有后来的“游丝秃鹫“，

there wouldn't have been an Albatross, a Solar Challenger,

就不会有后来的”信天翁”，太阳挑战者”，

there wouldn't be an Impact car, there wouldn't be a mandate

就不会有“影响力”汽车，在加州就不会

on zero-emission vehicles in California.

有交通工具零排放的规定。

A lot of these things -- or similar -- would have happened some time,

很多这类事情--相似的事情--有可能要以后才能发生，

probably a decade later. I didn't realize at the time

可能十年以后。我在和团队

I was doing inquiry-based, hands-on things with teams,

做调查和实践的时候没有意识到，

like they're trying to get in education systems.

像他们在教育系统探索一样。

So I think that, as a symbol, it's important.

所以我想那标志了它很重要。

And I believe that also is important. You can think of it

而且我相信那确实重要。你可以把它看做

as a sort of a symbol for learning and TED

一种[不清楚]和TED的标志。

that somehow gets you thinking of technology and nature,

像TED让人思考技术和自然，

and puts it all together in things that are --

把它融入了所有--

that make this conference, I think, more important than any

创造出这个大会的事物当中。我认为，比这个十年

that's taken place in this country in this decade.

在这个国家发生的任何事情都重要。

Thank you. (Applause)

谢谢。