Paul MacCready: Nature vs. humans, and what we can do about

譯者: Diming Yu 審譯者: Shelley Krishna Tsang

You hear that this is the era of environment -- or biology, or information technology ...

現在是環境，或生物，或信息技術的時代

Well, it's the era of a lot of different things

當然，現在也是很多其他東西的時代

that we're in right now. But one thing for sure:

但是有一點是肯定的

it's the era of change. There's more change going on

現在是一個正在發生改變的時代

than ever has occurred in the history of human life on earth.

目前發生的變化是人類歷史上前所未有的

And you all sort of know it, but it's hard to get it

儘管我們知道變化存在，但是卻很難完全掌握它們

so that you really understand it.

以至於我們難於理解這些變化

And I've tried to put together something that's a good start for this.

我稍微分析了一下這個問題

I've tried to show in this -- though the color doesn't come out --

我試過用這個圖演示，但是效果並不明顯

that what I'm concerned with is the little 50-year time bubble

我很關心後邊這段50年的虛線，它和大家息息相關

that you are in. You tend to be interested in a generation past,

人們關心一代人的過去

a generation future -- your parents, your kids, things you can change

一代人的未來，你的父母，你的孩子，以及

over the next few decades -- and this 50-year time bubble

未來幾十年你能改變的實。

you kind of move along in. And in that 50 years,

而你則沿著這代表50年的虛線前進。在未來50年，

if you look at the population curve, you find the population of humans

從人口曲線上來看，和現在相比

on the earth more than doubles and we're up three-and-a-half times

地球上的人口會翻倍，而那時的人口和我出生的時候相比是

since I was born. When you have a new baby,

三倍還要多。如果你有個孩子

by the time that kid gets out of high school

到孩子上完高中的时候

more people will be added than existed on earth when I was born.

新增人口比我出生时的 已存人口还要多

This is unprecedented, and it's big.

这是史无前例的 也是无比巨大的改变

Where it goes in the future is questioned. So that's the human part.

人口的未来有很大的挑战。

Now, the human part related to animals: look at the left side of that.

下面是人类和动物的关系。请看左边

What I call the human portion -- humans and their livestock and pets --

我所謂的人類部份 就是 人類和人所畜養的牲畜和寵物

versus the natural portion -- all the other wild animals and just --

相對應的是自然部份 即 其他所有的野生動物

these are vertebrates and all the birds, etc.,

這些是脊椎動物和所有的鳥類 等等

in the land and air, not in the water. How does it balance?

在陸地上在空中 但是沒有水中的。 人類和自然是怎麼平衡的呢

Certainly, 10,000 years ago, the civilization's beginning,

在一萬年前，人類文明才剛剛開始的時候

the human portion was less than one tenth of one percent. Let's look at it now.

人類部份不到千分之一。我們現在來看一下

You follow this curve and you see the whiter spot in the middle --

請看這條曲線，中間有一個比較白的點

that's your 50-year time bubble. Humans, livestock and pets

這就是未來50年的虛線。人類，牲畜和寵物

are now 97 percent of that integrated total mass on earth

目前是地球上集合質量的百分之九十七

and all wild nature is three percent. We have won. The next generation

所有的野生自然部份只佔百分之三。人類壓倒性的勝利了。

doesn't even have to worry about this game -- it is over.

我們的下一代不需要擔心人類和自然的競爭了。它已經結束了。

And the biggest problem came in the last 25 years:

但是最近25年有最大的問題

it went from 25 percent up to that 97 percent.

人類的比例從25％直接躍升到97％

And this really is a sobering picture upon realizing that we, humans,

這很明確的揭示出 人類已經開始掌控地球上的生命

are in charge of life on earth; we're like the capricious Gods

我們就像希臘神話中變幻莫測的古神

of old Greek myths, kind of playing with life --

我們在玩弄操縱著生命

and not a great deal of wisdom injected into it.

並沒有運用智慧來控制生命

Now, the third curve is information technology.

下面是第三條曲線，關於信息技術發展的曲線

This is Moore's Law plotted here, which relates to density

圖上畫出了關於信息密度的摩爾定律

of information, but it has been pretty good for showing

但同時這張圖也很好的體現了

a lot of other things about information technology --

許多其他關於信息技術的內容

computers, their use, Internet, etc. And what's important

其中包括電腦的使用，互聯網等等。最總要的是，

is it just goes straight up through the top of the curve,

這張圖看起來就是一直向上，從圖上垂直的延伸出去了

and has no real limits to it. Now try and contrast these.

完全沒有一個真正的極限。但是我們對比一下

This is the size of the earth going through that same --

這是地球的尺寸。地球的尺寸可是一直沒變。（水平的）

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

-- frame. And to make it really clear, I've put all four on one graph.

為了更好說明這個問題，我把四張圖放到一起

There's no need to see the little detailed words on it.

我們不用看圖上具體的小字

That first one is humans-versus-nature;

第一張是人類和自然的對比

we've won, there's no more gain. Human population.

毫無疑問，我們贏了。 接著是人口圖

And so if you're looking for growth industries to get into,

如果考慮進工業增長的話

that's not a good one -- protecting natural creatures. Human population

就不太妙了，要保護野生的生物啊。

is going up; it's going to continue for quite a while.

人口還在增長。它將在很長一段時間保持增長

Good business in obstetricians, morticians, and farming, housing, etc. --

產科醫生，喪葬業者，農業，建築業的生意都會很紅火

they all deal with human bodies, which require being fed,

這些行業都是和人身體有關的：人的飲食，

transported, housed and so on. And the information technology,

人的交通，居住等等。 而信息技術

which connects to our brains, has no limit -- now, that is a wonderful

是和我們頭腦聯繫在一起的，它沒有極限。

field to be in. You're looking for growth opportunity?

如果你想找一個發展的機會的，這可是個極好的領域！

It's just going up through the roof.

這個領域的未來直上雲霄。

And then, the size of the Earth. Somehow making these all compatible

然而地球的尺寸 在某種程度上限制了所有這些

with the Earth looks like a pretty bad industry to be involved with.

這些發展一牽扯進地球好像就有問題了

So, that's the stage out of all this. I find,

所以這就是目前的狀況

for reasons I don't understand, I really do have a goal.

我發現了很多我不了解的原因，我有個目標

And the goal is that the world be desirable and sustainable

當我的孩子和我一個年齡的時候，

when my kids reach my age -- and I think that's -- in other words,

我希望這個世界變得理想且可持續。也就是說，為了下一代

the next generation. I think that's a goal that we probably all share.

我想這是所有人共同的目標

I think it's a hopeless goal. Technologically, it's achievable;

但我覺得希望渺茫。技術上是可實現的

economically, it's achievable; politically,

經濟上是可實現的，但政治上

it means sort of the habits, institutions of people -- it's impossible.

由於人的慣性和習慣，是不可能實現的。

The institutions of the past with all their inertia

過去的慣例都帶著慣性

are just irrelevant for the future, except they're there

這些慣例和未來不相干，但我們

and we have to deal with them. I spend about 15 percent of my time

還要解決掉它們。我用了15％的時間

trying to save the world, the other 85 percent, the usual --

去保護這個世界，85％的時間

and whatever else we devote ourselves to.

作平常的事

And in that 15 percent, the main focus is on human mind, thinking skills,

在15％的時間，我主要研究人思維的技能

somehow trying to unleash kids from the straightjacket of school,

嘗試將孩子從學校的束縛中釋放出來

which is putting information and dogma into them,

學校用信息和教條束縛孩子

get them so they really think, ask tough questions, argue

我想讓孩子會思考，問問題，討論

about serious subjects, don't believe everything that's in the book,

嚴肅的問題，不要盡信書

think broadly or creative. They can be.

視野寬廣而有創造性。這是可以實現的。

Our school systems are very flawed and do not reward you

我們的教育系統有很大問題。

for the things that are important in life

它不鼓勵那些對人生，或者文明發展

or for the survival of civilization; they reward you

有價值的東西。它鼓勵學生

for a lot of learning and sopping up stuff.

學東西，死記知識

We can't go into that today because there isn't time --

由於時間關係我今天就不說這個話題了

it's a broad subject. One thing for sure, in the future

這牽涉很多。但有一點是肯定的，未來，

there is an essential feature -- necessary, but not sufficient --

有一個基本特徵。必要但不充分。

which is doing more with less. We've got to be doing things

即 用更少的東西完成更多的事。 我們必須有

with more efficiency using less energy, less material.

更高的效率，用更少的能源，材料。

Your great-great grandparents got by on muscle power,

你的祖爺爺靠肌肉的力量生活

and yet we all think there's this huge power that's essential

而我們認為我們的生活也是有一種力量支持的

for our lifestyle. And with all the wonderful technology we have

在美妙科技的支持下

we can do things that are much more efficient: conserve, recycle, etc.

我們可以更有效率的生活：生態保護，循環利用等等

Let me just rush very quickly through things that we've done.

讓我快速談談我們已經取得的成就

Human-powered airplane -- Gossamer Condor sort of started me

人力飛機－“遊絲禿鷲”在1976 1977年

in this direction in 1976 and 77,

啓發了我

winning the Kremer prize in aviation history,

在飛行史上，它贏得了Ｋremer奖

followed by the Albatross. And we began

後來還有一個“信天翁". 接著我們

making various odd planes and creatures.

開始製造各種奇怪的飛機和仿生飛行器

Here's a giant flying replica of a pterosaur that has no tail.

這是一個摹仿 大型無尾儀隴的作品

Trying to have it fly straight is like trying to shoot an arrow

它像一隻箭一樣直線飛

with the feathered end forward. It was a tough job,

尾翼還有羽毛。這很難造

and boy it made me have a lot of respect for nature.

在過程中，我對自然產生了很多敬畏

This was the full size of the original creature.

它和原本生物的尺寸一樣

We did things on land, in the air, on water --

我們造了陸地，空中，水上

vehicles of all different kinds, usually with some electronics

的各種交通工具。通常帶有電子設備

or electric power systems in them. I find they're all the same,

或者電氣系統的。我發現都差不多。

whether its land, air or water.

不管事陸地 空中還是水上的。

I'll be focusing on the air here. This is a solar-powered airplane --

我著重講飛行器。這是一架太陽能驅動的飛機

165 miles carrying a person from France to England

它載著一個人飛了165英里 從法國飛到英國

as a symbol that solar power is going to be an important part

作為一個太陽能的象徵。太陽能未來會很重要

of our future. Then we did the solar car for General Motors --

我們為通用汽車GM做了太陽能車

the Sunracer -- that won the race in Australia.

在澳大利亞贏得了太陽能車的比賽

We got a lot of people thinking about electric cars,

我們很多人在想電動車

what you could do with them. A few years later, when we suggested to GM that

能做甚麼。幾年前，我們告訴通用汽車GM公司

now is the time and we could do a thing called the Impact,

現在是時候了，我們可以造一個叫“影響力”的車

they sponsored it, and here's the Impact that we developed with them

它們贊助了，這就是我們和他們一起開發的 車。

on their programs. This is the demonstrator. And they put huge effort

這是一個概念車。他們投入了很多

into turning it into a commercial product.

去把它變成一個商業產品

With that preamble, let's show the first two-minute videotape,

開場白結束，讓我們看一段兩分鐘的視頻

which shows a little airplane for surveillance

展示了一架小監察幾

and moving to a giant airplane.

怎麼變成一架巨型飛機的。

Narrator: A tiny airplane, the AV Pointer serves for surveillance --

（旁白）：小飛機，AV指針是起監察作用的

in effect, a pair of roving eyeglasses. A cutting-edge example

是一幅粗紗鏡片。一個極端的例子展示

of where miniaturization can lead if the operator is remote

如果操作員在遠處，先導作用的效果

from the vehicle. It is convenient to carry, assemble

它容易帶著，組裝

and launch by hand. Battery-powered, it is silent and rarely noticed.

手動發射。電池供能，很安靜，不容易被發現

It sends high-resolution video pictures back to the operator.

接受高分辨率圖像並發送回操作員

With onboard GPS, it can navigate autonomously,

帶有機載GPS，它可以自動導航

and it is rugged enough to self-land without damage.

很耐用，可以自主降落並沒有損傷。

The modern sailplane is superbly efficient.

現代滑翔機超級高效

Some can glide as flat as 60 feet forward for every foot of descent.

每降低一英尺可以向前平飛60英尺

They are powered only by the energy

它們僅僅靠來自

they can extract from the atmosphere --

大氣的能量。

an atmosphere nature stirs up by solar energy.

大氣被太陽能激起而產生的動能（風和各種空氣亂流）

Humans and soaring birds have found nature to be generous

自然很慷慨的給與人和鳥類

in providing replenishable energy. Sailplanes have flown

可再生的能源。滑翔機最多

over 1,000 miles, and the altitude record is over 50,000 feet.

飛過1000英里，高度紀錄超過50000英尺

(Music)

音樂

The Solar Challenger was made to serve as a symbol

“太陽挑戰者”飛機體現出

that photovoltaic cells can produce real power

光伏電池（太陽照射，產生電流）可以產生真的力量

and will be part of the world's energy future.

將成為世界能源未來的一部分

In 1981, it flew 163 miles from Paris to England,

1981年 它飛了163英里從巴黎到英國

solely on the power of sunbeams,

直利用太陽光束的能量

and established a basis for the Pathfinder.

並為“探路者”飛機打下基礎

(Music)

音樂

The message from all these vehicles is that ideas and technology

這些作品告訴我們 想法和技術

can be harnessed to produce remarkable gains in doing more with less --

可以被用來產生顯著的收益 用更少做更多。

gains that can help us attain a desirable balance

這些收益幫助我們維持一個理想的

between technology and nature. The stakes are high

技術與科技的平衡。 我們高速發展

as we speed toward a challenging future.

有著很大的風險

Buckminster Fuller said it clearly: "there are no passengers

Buckminister Fuller說得很清楚： 在地球這架宇宙艦上

on spaceship Earth, only crew. We, the crew,

沒有旅客，只有船員。我們就是船員，

can and must do more with less -- much less."

我們可以，必需用很少很少做很多的事

Paul MacCready: If we could have the second video, the one-minute,

我們很快的放一下第二個視頻

put in as quickly as you can, which -- this will show

一分鐘的視頻，展示

the Pathfinder airplane in some flights this past year in Hawaii,

探路者 飛機去年在夏威夷的幾個飛行

and will show a sequence of some of the beauty behind it

還有在它飛到71530英尺後

after it had just flown to 71,530 feet --

所留下的一系列美妙事情。

higher than any propeller airplane has ever flown.

它的飛行高度比任何螺旋槳飛機都高

It's amazing: just on the puny power of the sun --

這很奇妙，僅僅靠微薄的太陽能

by having a super lightweight plane, you're able to get it up there.

這家超級輕的飛機就能飛那麼高

It's part of a long-term program NASA sponsored.

它是一個NASA（美國宇航局）長期資助的項目

And we worked very closely with the whole thing being a team effort,

我們緊密的協作

and with wonderful results like that flight.

產生了這此美妙的飛行

And we're working on a bigger plane -- 220-foot span --

我們正在造更大的飛機 220英尺翼展

and an intermediate-size, one with a regenerative fuel cell

以及一個中尺寸的飛機 帶有重複充電燃料電池。

that can store excess energy during the day, feed it back at night,

它可以白天充電，晚上放電繼續使用

and stay up 65,000 feet for months at a time.

並一次保持65000英尺的高度一個月之久

(Music)

音樂

Ray Morgan's voice will come in here.

Ray Morgan會出現

There he's the project manager. Anything they do

他是項目經理。所有這一切都是

is certainly a team effort. He ran this program. Here's ...

團隊協作的結果。他負責這個項目

some things he showed as a celebration at the very end.

這是他在項目結束 慶祝時候說得：

Ray Morgan: We'd just ended a seven-month deployment of Hawaii.

我們剛剛結束在夏威夷一個月的部署

For those who live on the mainland, it was tough being away from home.

對於那些生活在大陸的人，遠離家鄉很難熬

The friendly support, the quiet confidence, congenial hospitality

夏威夷人和軍隊所展現的

shown by our Hawaiian and military hosts --

友好幫助，無聲的信任和適宜的款待

(Music)

音樂

this is starting --

這開始了－

made the experience enjoyable and unforgettable.

使得這個經歷有樂趣且難忘

PM: We have real-time IR scans going out through the Internet

在飛機飛的時候 我們進行了

while the plane is flying. And it's exploring

通過互聯網傳送的實時的紅外線掃描。

without polluting the stratosphere. That's its goal: the stratosphere,

它探測的時候，不會污染平流層。這是它的目的。

the blanket that really controls the radiation of the earth

平流層像一個毯子，保護地球免於輻射

and permits life on earth to be the success that it is --

使得生命在地球上得以繁衍

probing that is very important. And also we consider it

探測平流層很重要。我們還把它當作

as a sort of poor man's stationary satellite,

一種廉價的靜態衛星

because it can stay right overhead for months at a time,

因為它可以靜止在一個地方數月之久

2,000 times closer than the real GFC synchronous satellite.

比真正的同步軌道衛星，離地球近2000倍

We couldn't bring one here to fly it and show you.

我們不能把它帶到著 飛給你看

But now let's look at the other end.

但是來看另一方面。 好。 我給你看－

In the video you saw that nine-pound or eight-pound Pointer airplane

在那個視頻里 你看到了8，9磅重的

surveillance drone that Keenan has developed

Keenan開發的無人偵察機

and just done a remarkable job. Where some have servos

他幹得漂亮。有些飛機的輔助系統

that have gotten down to, oh, 18 or 25 grams,

下降到18或者25克

his weigh one-third of a gram. And what he's going to bring out here

他的僅僅重三分之一克。他要帶過來一個

is a surveillance drone that weighs about 2 ounces --

僅重2盎斯的偵察機

that includes the video camera, the batteries that run it,

其中包括了攝像頭，電池

the telemetry, the receiver and so on. And we'll fly it, we hope,

遙測器，接收機等等。 我們還會飛一下

with the same success that we had last night when we did the practice.

我們希望能和昨天晚上我們試飛的時候一樣成功

So Matt Keenan, just any time you're --

好，Matt Keenan, 等你準備好－

all right

好的

-- ready to let her go. But first, we're going to make sure

準備起飛。首先，我們要確保它的影響能

that it's appearing on the screen, so you see what it sees.

出現在屏幕上，你們能看到飛機看到的東西

You can imagine yourself being a mouse or fly inside of it,

你可以把自己想像成老鼠，在裡邊飛

looking out of its camera.

從攝像頭看出去

Matt Keenan: It's switched on.

開關打開了

PM: But now we're trying to get the video. There we go.

我們要弄好視頻。 好的。

MK: Can you bring up the house lights?

能開一下燈嗎？

PM: Yeah, the house lights and we'll see you all better

好 燈打開了 我們能看得更清楚

and be able to fly the plane better.

然後飛的更好一點

MK: All right, we'll try to do a few laps around and bring it back in.

好，我們飛幾圈就收起來

Here we go.

開始！

(Applause)

掌聲

PM: The video worked right for the first few and I don't know why it --

視頻開始還挺好，我不知道為甚麼－

there it goes.

好了！

Oh, that was only a minute, but I think you'd be safe

喔，只飛一分鐘，但我認為等降落的

to have that near the end of the flight, perhaps.

時候你們是安全的，或許吧。。

We get to do the classic.

我們得來經典得

All right.

好的！

If this hits you, it will not hurt you.

如果撞到你，你不會受傷

(Laughter)

笑聲

OK.

好

(Applause)

掌聲

Thank you very much. Thank you.

十分感謝，謝謝。

(Applause)

掌聲

But now, as they say in infomercials,

現在，如介紹里說得

we have something much better for you, which we're working on:

我們有更好的東西要展示，我們現在正研究的

planes that are only six inches -- 15 centimeters -- in size.

只有6英吋－15厘米的飛機

And Matt's plane was on the cover of Popular Science last month,

Matt的飛機上週是大眾科學的封面

showing what this can lead to. And in a while, something this size

展現了它的未來。很快，這個尺寸的飛機

will have GPS and a video camera in it. We've had one of these fly

就能有GPS和攝像頭了。我們曾經用這樣的飛機

nine miles through the air at 35 miles an hour

飛了9英里，時速35英里每小時

with just a little battery in it.

用一塊小電池

But there's a lot of technology going.

現在有各種技術

There are just milestones along the way of some remarkable things.

這只是通往偉大成就路上的小里程碑

This one doesn't have the video in it,

這架飛機沒有攝像頭

but you get a little feel from what it can do.

但你應該能知道它是做甚麼的

OK, here we go.

好了，起飛！

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

MK: Sorry.

抱歉。。

OK.

好的

(Applause)

（掌聲）

PM: If you can pass it down when you're done. Yeah, I think --

你看完可以傳給別人看。恩，我覺得

I lost a little orientation; I looked up into this light.

我剛才迷失方向了，我一直看光來著，但

It hit the building. And the building was poorly placed, actually.

它撞到房子了。房子位置不佳

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

But you're beginning to see what can be done.

大家現在可以看出來它能幹甚麼了

We're working on projects now -- even wing-flapping things

我們目前研究很多，包括拍打翅膀的東西

the size of hawk moths -- DARPA contracts, working with Caltech, UCLA.

蛾子大小的，DARPA合同的，和加州理工以及UCLA合作的項目

Where all this leads, I don't know. Is it practical? I don't know.

它們的方向是甚麼？我不知道。實用嗎？我還不知道。

But like any basic research, when you're really forced to do things

和基礎研究一樣，被迫做一些

that are way beyond existing technology,

超越現有科技的事情

you can get there with micro-technology, nanotechnology.

你能通過微技術，Nano技術實現。

You can do amazing things when you realize

只要明白自然所作的，你

what nature has been doing all along. As you get to these small scales,

就能完成一些奇妙的事。尺寸上的縮小，

you realize we have a lot to learn from nature -- not with 747s --

我們有很多要從自然學習－不是說747s－

but when you get down to the nature's realm,

但當你到達自然的領域

nature has 200 million years of experience.

自然有超過2億年的經驗

It never makes a mistake. Because if you make a mistake,

它不犯錯。

you don't leave any progeny.

因為你犯錯不會留下後裔。

We should have nothing but success stories from nature,

但自然沒有失敗只有成功，對於人類或者鳥類

for you or for birds, and we're learning a lot

我們正在學習自然

from its fascinating subjects.

從各種吸引人的領域

In concluding, I want to get back to the big picture

總結一下，我想宏觀的看問題

and I have just two final slides to try and put it in perspective.

我有最後兩個幻燈片要展示 並說明一下

The first I'll just read. At last, I put in three sentences

第一個我就念了。最後，我

and had it say what I wanted.

把我要說的寫成三個句子

Over billions of years on a unique sphere, chance has painted

幾十億年來，在這個獨一無二的星球，巧合畫出了

a thin covering of life -- complex, improbable, wonderful

了無數生命的圖畫：複雜，意想不到，美好

and fragile. Suddenly, we humans -- a recently arrived species,

且脆弱。突然，我們人類，一個最近產生的種族

no longer subject to the checks and balances inherent in nature --

不再滿足於自然的現狀和平衡

have grown in population, technology and intelligence

人口，科技和智慧急遽增長

to a position of terrible power. We now wield the paintbrush.

擁有了巨大可怖的力量。我們揮舞著畫筆

And that's serious: we're not very bright. We're short on wisdom;

這很眼中。我們不聰明。我們缺乏智慧

we're high on technology. Where's it going to lead?

我們科技很強。現在將怎麼發展？

Well, inspired by the sentences, I decided to wield the paintbrush.

受到這段話的啓發，我決定揮舞畫筆

Every 25 years I do a picture. Here's the one --

每25年我畫一張圖。 這有一個

tries to show that the world isn't getting any bigger.

說明地球不再變大

Sort of a timeline, very non-linear scale, nature rates

一種時間線，非常不線形的刻度，自然比率。

and trilobites and dinosaurs, and eventually we saw some humans

三葉蟲，恐龍，最後我們看到一些人類

with caves ... Birds were flying overhead, after pterosaurs.

居住在山洞中的人。翼龍滅絕後，鳥類在飛

And then we get to the civilization above the little TV set

接著，我們進入了文明時代。電視機上有把槍

with a gun on it. Then traffic jams, and power systems,

交通堵塞，電力系統

and some dots for digital. Where it's going to lead -- I have no idea.

點代表數碼。它在向哪裡去？我不知道

And so I just put robotic and natural cockroaches out there,

所以我畫上了機器的和自然的蟑螂

but you can fill in whatever you want. This is not a forecast.

不過你業可以畫任何你想的。這不是預測

This is a warning, and we have to think seriously about it.

這是一個警示。我們需要認真想想

And that time when this is happening is not 100 years or 500 years.

這不會發生在100或者500年後

Things are going on this decade, next decade;

是這10年或者下個十年的事情

it's a very short time that we have to decide what we are going to do.

我們有很短的時間決定向甚麼方向發展

And if we can get some agreement on where we want the world to be --

如果我們能達成一致

desirable, sustainable when your kids reach your age --

我們嚮往在孩子長大時，有一個可持續，理想的世界

I think we actually can reach it. Now, I said this was a warning,

我認為我們能做到。我說這是個警示

not a forecast. That was before --

不是一個預測。因為之前

I painted this before we started in on making robotic versions

我畫的時候，我們還沒開始造

of hawk moths and cockroaches, and now I'm beginning to wonder

機器鷹嘴和機器蟑螂。現在我想

seriously -- was this more of a forecast than I wanted?

這是個預測而不是我想要得未來？

I personally think the surviving intelligent life form on earth

我認為持續的智能生命不是碳基生命

is not going to be carbon-based; it's going to be silicon-based.

而是硅基生命

And so where it all goes, I don't know.

所以到底怎麼樣，我也不知道

The one final bit of sparkle we'll put in at the very end here

最後一個靈感小火花

is an utterly impractical flight vehicle,

是一個非常不實際的飛行器

which is a little ornithopter wing-flapping device that --

一個小的拍打翅膀的裝置

rubber-band powered -- that we'll show you.

是橡皮筋供能的。我展示一下

MK: 32 gram. Sorry, one gram.

32克。錯了，是1克

PM: Last night we gave it a few too many turns

夠了。昨晚轉太多圈了

and it tried to bash the roof out also. It's about a gram.

然後它試圖衝出房頂。這1克左右

The tube there's hollow, about paper-thin.

管子是中空的，和紙一樣厚

And if this lands on you, I assure you it will not hurt you.

如果在你身上降落，我保證不會傷害你

But if you reach out to grab it or hold it, you will destroy it.

如果你去抓它，你會毀了它

So, be gentle, just act like a wooden Indian or something.

所以，溫柔點。

And when it comes down -- and we'll see how it goes.

降落時候，我們會看到效果

We consider this to be sort of the spirit of TED.

我把它當成一種TED的精神

(Applause)

（掌聲）

And you wonder, is it practical? And it turns out if I had not been --

你覺得，實用嗎？原來我沒有－

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

(Applause)

（掌聲）

Unfortunately, we have some light bulb changes.

看來我們得換燈泡了

We can probably get it down,

我們應該能把它弄下來

but it's possible it's gone up to a greater destiny up there --

但可能它在上面是更好的命運吧

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

-- than it ever had. And I wanted to make --

－它所能有的命運。然後我想－

(Applause)

(掌聲)

just --

－就－

(Applause)

（掌聲）

But I want to make just two points. One is, you think it's frivolous;

我想再說兩點。一，你覺得它無足輕重

there's nothing to it. And yet if I had not been making ornithopters

這東西沒有甚麼意義。但是如果我沒做那樣的撲翼飛機

like that, a little bit cruder, in 1939 -- a long, long time ago --

稍微再簡陋一些，在1939年，很久以前

there wouldn't have been a Gossamer Condor,

就不會有“遊絲禿鷲”

there wouldn't have been an Albatross, a Solar Challenger,

也不會有“信天翁”，不會有“太陽挑戰者”

there wouldn't be an Impact car, there wouldn't be a mandate

也不會有“影響力”汽車，在加州

on zero-emission vehicles in California.

也不會有汽車零排放規定

A lot of these things -- or similar -- would have happened some time,

很多東西，類似的，會在某些時候發生。

probably a decade later. I didn't realize at the time

可能十年之後。當我和團隊在做調查實踐的時候

I was doing inquiry-based, hands-on things with teams,

並沒有意識到

like they're trying to get in education systems.

就像探索改進教育系統一樣

So I think that, as a symbol, it's important.

所以我想，作為一個標緻是重要的

And I believe that also is important. You can think of it

我也相信這本身也是重要的。你可以把它

as a sort of a symbol for learning and TED

看成是TED的一種標誌和 [不清楚]

that somehow gets you thinking of technology and nature,

它讓人思考科技和自然

and puts it all together in things that are --

把它融為一體

that make this conference, I think, more important than any

並創造出這次會議。我想，這才是這十年 這個國家

that's taken place in this country in this decade.

最重要的事情。

Thank you. (Applause)

谢谢觀賞。