Robert Neuwirth: The "shadow cities" of the future

翻译人员: Chunlei Chang 校对人员: Tony Yet

Let me show you some images

我为大家展示一些影像

of what I consider to be the cities of tomorrow.

一些我对城市未来的看法.

So, that's Kibera, the largest squatter community in Nairobi.

那就是基贝拉,内罗比最大的贫民窟.

This is the squatter community in Sanjay Gandhi National Park

这些贫民区在桑贾伊甘地国家公园

in Bombay, India, what's called Mumbai these days.

在印度孟买,这被叫做当下孟买（Mumbai）.

This is Hosinia, the largest and most urbanized favela

这是Hosinia,最大最集中的贫民区

in Rio de Janeiro.

它在里约热内卢.

And this is Sultanbelyi,

这里是苏丹贝利,

which is one of the largest squatter communities in Istanbul.

这儿是伊斯坦布尔最大的贫困社区.

They are what I consider to be the cities of tomorrow,

我认为它们代表了城市的未来

the new urban world.

城市的新明天.

Now, why do I say that?

我为什么要这么说?

To tell you about that I have to talk about this fellow here,

下面我谈谈这家伙,

his name is Julius.

他的名字是Julius.

And I met Julius the last week that I was living in Kibera.

上周我住在基贝拉时遇见Julius.

So, I had been there almost three months,

虽然,我住在这将近三个月,

and I was touring around the city going to different squatter areas

我在贫民窟的不同区域云游

and Julius was tagging along, and he was bug eyed

Julius尾随我,睁大双眼

and at certain points we were walking around,

通过交谈我们有着同样的忧虑,

he grabbed my hand for support,

他抓紧我的手，以获得支持

which is something most Kenyans would never consider doing.

有些事是肯尼亚人永远不愿触及的事情.

They're very polite and they don't get so forward so quickly.

他们非常友好然而他们一直跟着我们.

And I found out later that it was Julius' first day in Nairobi,

我找到内罗比后去了那，Julius还是头一次去,

and he's one of many.

他是少数中的一个.

So, close to 200,000 people a day

然而,每天将近20人

migrate from the rural to the urban areas.

从乡下迁移到城市.

That's, and I'm going to be fair to the statisticians

我要公平的统计

who talked this morning, not almost 1.5 million people a week,

谁在早上放话,每周并没有达到150万人,

but almost 1.4 million people a week but I'm a journalist,

而是近140万人，还有像我这样的新闻工作者,

and we exaggerate, so almost 1.5 million people a week,

我们也会向城市扩张,因此每周将近150万人,

close to 70 million people a year.

每年大约有700万人.

And if you do the math, that's 130 people every minute.

如果你精确计算,那就是每分钟是130人.

So, that'll be -- in the 18 minutes that I'm given to talk here,

因此,那将是--我在这里演讲的18分钟,

between two and three thousand people will have journeyed to the cities.

就有2--3千人将前往这座城市.

And here are the statistics.

这是统计.

Today -- a billion squatters,

今天--十亿城市寄居者,

one in six people on the planet.

占到了六分之一的地球人口.

2030 -- two billion squatters,

2030年--20亿

one in four people on the planet.

四分之一地球人口.

And the estimate is that in 2050, there'll be three billion squatters,

以此类推在2050年,这里将有三十亿城市寄居者

better than one in three people on earth.

超过三分之一的地球人口.

So, these are the cities of the future, and we have to engage them.

因此,这些城市的未来,我们要让他们参与进来.

And I was thinking this morning of the good life,

今天早上我还在思考美好的生活,

and before I show you the rest of my presentation,

在我向你陈述我的演讲前,

I'm going to violate TED rules here,

我将违反TED的规则,

and I'm going to read you something from my book as quickly as I can.

我将快速为你读一段我书中的精华.

Because I think it says something about reversing our perception

因为我觉得这些话是关于逆转我们的固有观念的

of what we think the good life is.

它让我们反思，美好的生活指的是什么.

So -- "The hut was made of corrugated metal, set on a concrete pad.

"小屋是用金属铁皮建造,安装在一个水泥衬垫上.

It was a 10 by 10 cell.

这是一个10米乘以10米的房间

Armstrong O'Brian, Jr. shared it with three other men.

Armstrong O'Brian Jr与其他三人合住.

Armstrong and his friends had no water --

Armstrong和他的朋友没有水了,

they bought it from a nearby tap owner --

他们买附近水龙头主人的水来使用.

no toilet -- the families in this compound shared a single pit-latrine --

没有单独厕所,大家用着仅有的一个公共厕所

and no sewers or sanitation.

没有排水管和清道夫.

They did have electricity,

他们有电力,

but it was illegal service tapped from someone else's wires,

但那是从别人电流里偷盗的非法电力,

and could only power one feeble bulb.

也仅能供应一个微薄的电灯泡.

This was Southland, a small shanty community

这就是南部地区一个小的可怕境地

on the western side of Nairobi, Kenya.

在内罗比,肯尼亚的西边.

But it could've been anywhere in the city,

但并不是遍布整个城市,

because more than half the city of Nairobi lives like this.

因为在内罗比超过一般的城市是这样生活的.

1.5 million people stuffed into mud or metal huts

有150万人是生活在垃圾堆旁的小铁皮屋下

with no services, no toilets, no rights.

不享受任何服务,没厕所,没有任何权利.

"Armstrong explained the brutal reality of their situation:

Armstrong解释了他们残酷现实的因由,

they paid 1,500 shillings in rent, about 20 bucks a month,

他们付1500先令房租,大约20头公羊每个月,

a relatively high price for a Kenyan shantytown,

如此高额的佣金付给肯尼亚临时破社区,

and they could not afford to be late with the money.

然而他们无法承担起如此高额的费用.

'In case you owe one month, the landlord will come with his henchmen

如果你欠了一个月的房租,房东会和他的手下

and bundle you out. He will confiscate your things,' Armstrong said.

把你捆起来.他将没收你的东西,'Armstrong说.

'Not one month, one day,' his roommate Hilary Kibagendi Onsomu,

不只是一个月,甚至一天,'他的室友Hilary Kibagendi Onsomu插话说道,

who was cooking ugali, the spongy white cornmeal concoction

他在做饭,白玉米面糊糊

that is the staple food in the country, cut into the conversation.

这是这个国家的主食

They called their landlord a Wabenzi, meaning that he is a person

他们管房东叫Wabenzi,意思是他是一个

who has enough money to drive a Mercedes-Benz.

有足够钱买得起奔驰车的人.

Hilary served the ugali with a fry of meat and tomatoes;

Hilary做着炸薯条和炸肉,

the sun slammed down on the thin steel roof;

太阳炙热的烤在小铁皮屋上,

and we perspired as we ate.

我们汗流浃背.

"After we finished, Armstrong straightened his tie,

我们吃完后,Armstrong整理了下他的领带,

put on a wool sports jacket, and we headed out into the glare.

穿上一件羊毛运动夹克,我们的首领闪亮登场.

Outside a mound of garbage formed the border

外边的垃圾山形成一道边界

between Southland and the adjacent legal neighborhood of Langata.

南部与临近的合法国度兰格塔.

It was perhaps eight feet tall, 40 feet long, and 10 feet wide.

这大约有8英尺高,40英尺长,10英尺宽.

And it was set in a wider watery ooze.

他座落在一个宽广的污水沟旁.

As we passed, two boys were climbing the mount Kenya of trash.

当我们经过时两个男孩爬上了肯尼亚的垃圾堆.

They couldn't have been more than five or six years old.

他么肯定没超过五六岁.

They were barefoot, and with each step their toes sank into the muck

他们光着脚丫,每一步赤脚,脚趾陷入淤泥

sending hundreds of flies scattering from the rancid pile.

吵醒从腐臭堆散射的百只苍蝇

I thought they might be playing King of the Hill, but I was wrong.

我猜想他们是在玩躲猫猫,但我错了.

Once atop the pile, one of the boys lowered his shorts,

一个在顶山,另外一个男孩脱下他的裤子,

squatted, and defecated.

蹲下,便便.

The flies buzzed hungrily around his legs.

苍蝇饥渴的围着男孩的腿打转.

When 20 families -- 100 people or so -- share a single latrine,

20个家庭--100个人左右--共用一个厕所,

a boy pooping on a garbage pile is perhaps no big thing.

一个男孩在垃圾堆里便便也许不是什么大问题.

But it stood in jarring contrast

但他形成鲜明对比

to something Armstrong had said as we were eating --

Armstrong曾经说过,正如我们吃的东西--

that he treasured the quality of life in his neighborhood.

他的友邻在乎的是生活质量.

"For Armstrong, Southland wasn't constrained by its material conditions.

Armstrong说,南部不能用物质条件来束缚人们.

Instead, the human spirit radiated out

反之,人们的精神辐射出

from the metal walls and garbage heaps to offer something

对薄铁皮屋和垃圾强的愤怒

no legal neighborhood could: freedom.

你合法的友邻--向往自由.

'This place is very addictive,' he had said.

生活在这个地方非常成瘾,'他曾说过.

'It's a simple life, but nobody is restricting you.

这里生活很简单,没有人束缚你.

Nobody is controlling what you do.

没有人约束做任何事情.

Once you have stayed here, you cannot go back.'

一旦你选择居住在这,你将无法回头.'

He meant back beyond that mountain of trash,

他指的是穿越那座垃圾山,

back in the legal city, of legal buildings,

回到合法的城市,合法的建筑,

with legal leases and legal rights.

合法租赁和拥有法定权利.

'Once you have stayed here,' he said,

'一旦你选择居住在这,'他说,

'you can stay for the rest of your life.'"

你就会在此度过你剩余的生命.'"

So, he has hope, and this is where these communities start.

所以,他曾有希望,这就是这些社区的开始.

This is perhaps the most primitive shanty that you can find in Kibera,

这也许是你可以在基贝拉找到的最原始的境地,

little more than a stick-and-mud hut next to a garbage heap.

小泥巴屋旁的垃圾堆.

This is getting ready for the monsoon in Bombay, India.

这是为印度孟买的雨季所准备的.

This is home improvement:

这也可以叫家居装饰.

putting plastic tarps on your roof.

把塑料布遮挡在你的屋顶上.

This is in Rio de Janeiro, and it's getting a bit better, right?

这里是里约热内卢,这个看起来好一点了,对吧?

We're seeing scavenged terra cotta tile and little pieces of signs,

我们能看到土陶泥和小残骸的迹象,

and plaster over the brick, some color,

灰泥填满砖缝,混杂的颜色,

and this is Sulay Montakaya's house in Sultanbelyi, and it's getting even better.

这里是Sulay Montakaya在苏丹贝利的房子,这里看起来更像个家了.

He's got a fence; he scavenged a door;

他修了一道篱笆,还清扫了院子.

he's got new tile on the roof.

屋顶还填了新瓦片.

And then you get Rocinha

当你在荷欣尼亚

and you can see that it's getting even better.

你可以看到这里变化更大.

The buildings here are multi-story.

这里的高层建筑.

They develop -- you can see on the far right

你可以看到这里的发展

one where it seems to just stack on top of each other,

从远处看起来只是堆栈,

room, after room, after room.

房间,挨着房间,紧跟着还是房间.

And what people do is they develop their home on one or two stories,

人们所做的就是和他们的家人生活得更贴近,

and they sell their loggia or roof rights,

他们出售他们的凉亭和屋顶产权,

and someone else builds on top of their building,

房屋建造在别人的屋顶上,

and then that person sells the roof rights,

当这个人出售他的屋顶产权时,

and someone else builds on top of their building.

别人就可以合法累建了.

All of these buildings are made out of reinforced concrete and brick.

建筑物是由钢筋混凝土和砖砌成.

And then you get Sultanbelyi, in Turkey, where it's even built

当你到了苏丹贝利在土耳其,那里甚至建造了

to a higher level of design.

一个高水准设计.

The crud in the front is mattress stuffing,

眼前的杂物是床垫的填充物,

and you see that all over Turkey.

这在土耳其到处可见.

People dry out or air out their mattress stuffing on their roofs.

人们在屋顶晒干燥或者潮湿的床垫填充物.

But the green building, on behind,

但在后边的这些建筑,

you can see that the top floor is not occupied,

你可以看到他们的屋顶是没有任何的杂物,

so people are building with the possibility of expansion.

人们正在建设的可能性的扩张.

And it's built to a pretty high standard of design.

然后建成一个高水准的设计.

And then you finally get squatter homes like this,

最后社区将会是这个样子,

which is built on the suburban model.

这是建在郊区的样板房.

Hey, that's a single family home in the squatter community.

看,那是单独家庭的社区.

That's also in Istanbul, Turkey.

这仍然是在伊斯坦布尔, 土耳其.

They're quite vital places, these communities.

这些社区对他们来说是非常重要的地方.

This is the main drag of Rocinha, the Estrada da Gavea,

这是荷欣尼亚的交通要到,在埃斯特拉达,

and there's a bus route that runs through it,

这儿是公交路线.在这穿行着,

lots of people out on the street.

许多人露宿街头.

These communities in these cities are actually more vital

这些社区在城市里实际上是至关重要的

than the illegal communities.

比起非法社区.

They have more things going on in them.

他还有更多的作用.

This is a typical pathway in Rocinha called a "beco" --

这是一个典型的山路在荷欣尼亚被叫做小塔楼--

these are how you get around the community.

这些都是让你如何到达周围的社区.

It's on very steep ground.

这里地面非常陡峭.

They're built on the hills, inland from the beaches in Rio,

他们被建在山上,在里约的海滩内陆,

and you can see that the houses are just cantilevered over the natural obstructions.

你可以看到那房子仅仅是大自然的悬臂障碍物.

So, that's just a rock in the hillside.

所以,这只是在山坡上的岩石.

And these becos are normally very crowded,

这些小塔楼屋通常都很集中,

and people hump furniture up them, or refrigerators up them,

人们运输各种家具,冰箱,

all sorts of things.

各种各样的生活用品.

Beer is all carried in on your shoulders.

啤酒都是被抗上来的.

Beer is a very important thing in Brazil.

啤酒对巴西人很重要

This is commerce in Kenya, right along the train tracks,

在肯尼亚这是一项生财之道,沿著火车铁轨,

so close to the train tracks that the merchants

靠近火车站台这里的商人们

sometimes have to pull the merchandise out of the way.

有时不得不把商品拿到偏僻的地方出售.

This is a marketplace, also in Kenya, Toi Market,

这是一个交易集市,在肯尼亚,电话市场

lots of dealers, in almost everything you want to buy.

许多商家,在这里你几乎可以买到所有你想要的东西.

Those green things in the foreground are mangoes.

这些绿色显眼的东西是芒果.

This is a shopping street in Kibera,

这是基贝拉的商业街,

and you can see that there's a soda dealer, a health clinic,

你可以看到汽水经销商,诊所,

two beauty salons, a bar, two grocery stores, and a church, and more.

两个美容院、酒吧、两个杂货店,和一所教堂,还有更多.

It's a typical downtown street; it just happens to be self-built.

这是典型的市中心,但恰恰是自建房屋.

This here, on the right-hand side,

看这里,右手边上,

is what's called a -- if you look at the fine print under the awning --

也就是我们所说的--如果你仔细看大棚下的小字--

it's a hotel.

是一间客栈.

And what hotel means, in Kenya and India, is an eating-place.

在肯尼亚和印度客栈的意思是,是吃饭的地方.

So, that's a restaurant.

因此,这是一家餐馆.

People steal electrical power -- this is Rio.

这里是里约人们普遍偷盗电力.

People tap in and they have thieves who are called "grillos" or "crickets,"

人们管盗电的人叫做蟑螂或者蟋蟀,

and they steal the electrical power

他们偷盗电力,

and wire the neighborhood.

然后给邻居安装电线.

People burn trash to get rid of the garbage,

他们用焚烧来处理垃圾,

and they dig their own sewer channels.

他们自己挖掘下水道.

Talk about more plastic bags than plankton.

比起浮游生物更令人头疼是塑料袋,

And sometimes they have natural trash-disposal.

然而有时他们具有天然的垃圾处理器.

And when they have more money they cement their streets,

当他们些小钱的时候便会维修社区设施,

and they put in sewers and good water pipes, and stuff like that.

维修下水道和安装水泵,诸如此类.

This is water going to Rio. People run their water pipes all over the place,

这里是去往里约的水域,人们接通了所有的自来水管道,

and that little hut right there has a pump in it, and that's what people do:

那儿有一个小木屋,那就是人们所做的.

they steal electricity; they install a pump

他们偷盗电力,安装水泵

and they tap into the water main, and pump water up to their houses.

挖掘给水总管道,排压到每户人家,

So, the question is how do you go from the mud-hut village,

因此,问题在于你如何从脏乱的小村庄,

to the more developed city, to the even highly developed Sultanbelyi?

发展到一个城市,甚至是高度发达的苏丹贝利吗?

I say there are two things.

这里我说两件事,

One is people need a guarantee they won't be evicted.

一个人要保证它们不会被逐出.

That does not necessarily mean property rights,

这并不一定意味着产权,

and I would disagree with Hernando de Soto on that question,

在这个问题上我不会同意 Hernando de Soto的观点,

because property rights create a lot of complications.

因为财产权存在着很多并发症,

They're most often sold to people, and people then wind up in debt

他们是最常被出售给他人,人们就会欠下债务和1

and have to pay back the debt,

必须偿还债务,

and sometimes have to sell their property

有时不得不卖掉他们的财产

in order to pay back the debt.

来偿还债务.

There's a whole variety of other reasons why property rights

这存在着各种不定因素,财产权

sometimes don't work in these cases,

有时候是不管用的,

but they do need security of tenure.

但他们需要保障.

And they need access to politics, and that can mean two things.

然而他们需要获得政治,这意味著两件事.

That can mean community organizing from below,

这就意味着服从社区组织,

but it can also mean possibilities from above.

但它也可能代表着上级的可能性.

And I say that because the system in Turkey is notable.

我之所以这样说是因为这个系统在Turkey是显著的.

Turkey has two great laws that protect squatters.

土耳其有两大法律保护房屋.

One is that -- it's called "gecekondu" in Turkish,

一是--这是一种被称为棚户在土耳其,

which means "built overnight," and if you build your house overnight

这意味着一夜间建立起来的,并且如果你建立你的房子

in Turkey, you can't be evicted without due process of law,

在土耳其,没有正当的法律程序你是不能被驱逐出城的,

if they don't catch you during the night.

前提是他们在夜间并没有抓到你.

And the second aspect is that once you have 2,000 people

第二个方面是一旦你有2千人拥护者

in the community, you can petition the government

在社区里,你可以向政府申请

to be recognized as a legal sub-municipality.

成立子城市

And when you're a legal sub-municipality, you suddenly have politics.

当申请获得批准后,你瞬间就有了政治权利.

You're allowed to have an elected government, collect taxes,

你将拥有选举权,可以征税

provide municipal services, and that's exactly what they do.

提供市政服务,而这正是他们所做的工作.

So, these are the civic leaders of the future.

看,这是未来的领袖.

The woman in the center is Geeta Jiwa.

中间的那个女人是Geeta Jiwa.

She lives in one of those tents on the highway median in Mumbai.

她住在孟买高速公路上的一个帐篷理.

That's Sureka Gundi; she also lives with her family

那是Sureka Gundi,她和家人住在一起

on the tent along the same highway median.

沿公路上的数个帐篷.

They're very outspoken. They're very active.

他们非常坦率.也非常活跃.

They can be community leaders.

他们是这个社区的领导.

This woman is Nine, which means "grandma" in Turkish.

这个女人是Nine,她奶奶在土耳其.

And there were three old ladies who lived in --

和三个老太太住在一起--

that's her self-built house behind her -- and they've lived there for 30 or 40 years,

后边就是她自己建的房屋--他们已经在那生活了三四十年了,

and they are the backbone of the community there.

他们是社区里的骨干.

This is Richard Muthama Peter,

这位是Richard Muthama Peter,

and he is an itinerant street photographer in Kibera.

他是基贝拉的街拍摄影师.

He makes money taking pictures of the neighborhood,

他为邻居拍照赚钱,

and the people in the neighborhood,

对于街坊邻居

and is a great resource in the community.

这是一个巨大的资源

And finally my choice to run for mayor of Rio is Cezinio,

最后,我选择的竞选市长在里约,

the fruit merchant with his two kids here,

水果商和他的两个孩子

and a more honest and giving and caring man I don't know.

一个我不怎么了解的坦率和及有爱心的男士.

The future of these communities is in the people

未来社区的人们

and in our ability to work with those people.

我们尽所能与这些人一起工作.

So, I think the message I take, from what I read from the book,

因此,我认为我带来的这些信息,是来自于我对这本书的理解,

from what Armstrong said, and from all these people,

Armstrong说,这些人,

is that these are neighborhoods.

这些街坊邻居.

The issue is not urban poverty.

问题不在于城市贫困与否.

The issue is not the larger, over-arching thing.

问题也不是着急就可以解决的.

The issue is for us to recognize that these are neighborhoods --

问题是我们要接受这是一个社区.

this is a legitimate form of urban development --

这是一个合法的形式的城市发展,

and that cities have to engage these residents,

然而城市需要对公民承诺,

because they are building the cities of the future.

因为这关系到城市的未来.

Thank you very much.

非常感谢.