Is war between China and the US inevitable? | Graham Allison

翻译人员: Hanlin Wang 校对人员: jacks peng

So, let me thank you for the opportunity to talk about

首先我想感谢能有这个机会,

the biggest international story of your professional lifetime,

来讨论你们职业生涯中 最大的国际话题，

which is also the most important international challenge

同时也是众所周知， 最重要的，

the world will face for as far as the eye can see.

全世界正面临的国际性挑战。

The story, of course, is the rise of China.

这个话题，毋庸置疑， 便是中国的崛起。

Never before have so many people risen so far so fast,

在此之前从未有如此众多的人，

on so many different dimensions.

在如此众多的方面，

有着如此飞速地进步。

The challenge is the impact of China's rise --

随之而来的挑战在于 中国崛起所带来的影响--

the discombobulation this will cause the Unites States

对美国以及国际秩序，

and the international order,

所产生的混乱，

of which the US has been the principal architect and guardian.

而美国一直是国际秩序的 首要建造者和守卫者。

The past 100 years have been what historians now call an "American Century."

历史学家们将过去的100年 称为“美国的世纪”。

Americans have become accustomed to their place

美国人对自己在各方面所处的顶尖地位，

at the top of every pecking order.

早已习以为常。

So the very idea of another country

因此，若是有另一个 如同美国一样，

that could be as big and strong as the US -- or bigger --

力量强大的大国-- 甚至更大的国家存在。

strikes many Americans as an assault on who they are.

这将对美国人的 自我认知造成威胁。

For perspective on what we're now seeing in this rivalry,

对这场正在进行的竞争 应该采取什么视角，

it's useful to locate it on the larger map of history.

把眼光放大至历史中会很有用。

The past 500 years have seen 16 cases

过去500年发生过的16案例，

in which a rising power threatened to displace a ruling power.

展现崛起力量威胁掌权力量， 甚至取而代之。

Twelve of those ended in war.

其中12件案例最终导致战争。

So just in November, we'll all pause to mark the 100th anniversary

刚刚过去的11月， 我们纪念了那场100周年的战争。

of the final day of a war that became so encompassing,

这场战争影响之广，

that it required historians to create an entirely new category: world war.

以致历史学家创造了一个 新的类别：世界大战。

So, on the 11th hour of the 11th day

在1918年的第11个月的，

of the 11th month in 1918,

第11天中的第11个小时，

the guns of World War I fell silent,

第一次世界大战的 枪声开始沉寂，

but 20 million individuals lay dead.

但是两千万人 早已在战争中丧生。

I know that this is a sophisticated audience,

我相信在座各位都很熟悉，

so you know about the rise of China.

所以你们应该 对中国的崛起有所了解。

I'm going to focus, therefore, on the impact of China's rise,

因此，我接下来想着重讨论 中国崛起所带来的影响，

on the US, on the international order

对于美国，对于国际秩序，

and on the prospects for war and peace.

对于战争与和平方面所带来的影响。

But having taught at Harvard over many years,

我在哈佛教书多年的经验告诉我，

I've learned that from time to time, it's useful to take a short pause,

偶尔有个短暂间隙会很有效，

just to make sure we're all on the same page.

来确认我们的认知是否同步。

The way I do this is, I call a time-out,

我将我的检验方式称为“暂停休息”，

I give students a pop quiz -- ungraded, of course.

我给学生们提及测验 当然了，是不记分的。

So, let's try this. Time-out, pop quiz.

所以我们也试试吧， 突击小测验。

Question:

提问：

forty years ago, 1978, China sets out on its march to the market.

四十年前，1978年， 中国向市场进军。

At that point, what percentage of China's one billion citizens

那时的中国， 十亿人口中有多少比例

挣扎在每天仅花2美刀的水平线上呢？

were struggling to survive on less than two dollars a day?

Take a guess -- 25 percent?

猜一下--25%？

Fifty?

50%？

Seventy-five?

75%？

Ninety.

是90%。

What do you think?

你们怎么看？

Ninety.

90%。

Nine out of every 10 on less than two dollars a day.

每十人中有九人，每天的花销不到2美刀。

Twenty eighteen, 40 years later.

2018年，40年之后，

What about the numbers?

这个数字变成多少了呢？

What's your bet?

你们猜是多少？

Take a look.

了解一下，

Fewer than one in 100 today.

如今每一百人中不到一人。

And China's president has promised that within the next three years,

中国国家主席还承诺在未来三年里，

those last tens of millions will have been raised up

最后的那一千万人口，

above that threshold.

会摆脱那个临界值。

So it's a miracle, actually, in our lifetime.

因此这可以说是我们 有生之年中的一个奇迹。

Hard to believe.

难以置信。

But brute facts are even harder to ignore.

然而残忍的事实无法忽视。

A nation that didn't even appear on any of the international league tables

一个在25年前从未出现在，

25 years ago

任何国际会议上的国家，

has soared,

已经崛起，

to rival -- and in some areas, surpass -- the United States.

开始去竞争-- 并且在一些方面超越了美国。

Thus, the challenge that will shape our world:

因此，改变世界的挑战在于：

a seemingly unstoppable rising China

貌似无法阻挡的 崛起的中国，

accelerating towards an apparently immovable ruling US,

加速朝着明显不动的 占据统治地位的美国走去。

on course for what could be the grandest collision in history.

这可以说是历史上 最大的碰撞交锋。

To help us get our minds around this challenge,

为了帮助大家理解这个挑战，

I'm going to introduce you to a great thinker,

我要向大家介绍 一位伟大的思想家。

I'm going to present a big idea,

我要在演讲中展示 一个宏大的想法，

and I'm going to pose a most consequential question.

并由此提出 最重要的问题。

The great thinker is Thucydides.

这位思想家名为修昔底德。

Now, I know his name is a mouthful,

我知道他的名字很绕口，

and some people have trouble pronouncing it.

有些人不太清楚如何发音。

So, let's do it, one, two, three, together:

所以我们练习一遍， 一，二，三，一起：

Thucydides.

修昔底德。

One more time: Thucydides.

再一次：修昔底德。

So who was Thucydides?

谁是修昔底德？

He was the father and founder of history.

他是历史学之父，历史学的创立者，

He wrote the first-ever history book.

他撰写了第一本历史书。

It's titled "The History of the Peloponnesian War,"

这本书名为 《伯罗奔尼撒战争史》。

about the war in Greece, 2500 years ago.

它讲的是2500年前 发生在希腊的战争，

So if nothing else today, you can tweet your friends,

所以如果今天什么都没印象 你可以给朋友发推特说：

"I met a great thinker.

“我今天认识了一位伟大的思想家，

And I can even pronounce his name: Thucydides."

我甚至可以念他的名字：修昔底德”。

So, about this war that destroyed classical Greece,

关于这场摧毁了古希腊的战争，

Thucydides wrote famously:

修昔底德写下了一句著名评论：

"It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta

“正是雅典势力的崛起 和斯巴达因此而逐渐产生的恐惧，

that made the war inevitable."

使得这场战争不可避免”。

So the rise of one

所以一方势力的崛起，

and the reaction of the other

以及另一方所做的反应，

create a toxic cocktail of pride,

制造了饱含 骄傲，傲慢，偏执的

arrogance, paranoia,

有毒鸡尾酒，

that drug them both to war.

这毒药让两者都上了战场。

Which brings me to the big idea:

而这将我引向一个宏大的想法：

Thucydides's Trap.

修昔底德的陷阱。

"Thucydides's Trap" is a term I coined several years ago,

“修昔底德的陷阱”是 我几年前发明的词,

以便生动地阐述 修昔底德的见解。

to make vivid Thucydides's insight.

Thucydides's Trap is the dangerous dynamic that occurs

“修昔底德的陷阱” 指的是当新兴力量，

when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power,

威胁到掌权势力时 产生的危险动态，

like Athens --

如雅典--

or Germany 100 years ago, or China today --

如100年前的德国 又如如今的中国--

and their impact on Sparta,

和它们对斯巴达的影响，

or Great Britain 100 years ago, or the US today.

如100年前的大英帝国 又如今对美国造成的影响。

As Henry Kissinger has said,

像亨利·基辛格所说，

once you get this idea, this concept of Thucydides's Trap in your head,

一旦你产生这个想法， 脑海中有了“修昔底德的陷阱”，

it will provide a lens

它将给你提供--

for helping you look through the news and noise of the day

透过现今的新闻与喧嚣，

to understand what's actually going on.

并理解事态的实际进展的棱镜，

So, to the most consequential question about our world today:

所以，当下对于全世界来说， 最重要的问题是：

Are we going to follow in the footsteps of history?

我们将步入历史的后尘吗？

Or can we, through a combination of imagination and common sense

或者我们可以 通过融合想象力和常识，

and courage

以及勇气，

find a way to manage this rivalry

来寻找到对付 这种竞争关系的解决途径，

without a war nobody wants,

而不引发任何人都不期待，

and everybody knows would be catastrophic?

且只会带来灾难的战争吗？

Give me five minutes to unpack this,

让我花5分钟来解释，

and later this afternoon, when the next news story pops up for you

等你下午接收到一条新闻消息，

about China doing this, or the US reacting like that,

报道中国这么做， 或者美国那样应对时，

you will be able to have a better understanding of what's going on

你就会对事情进展 有更深的理解，

and even to explain it to your friends.

甚至可以跟朋友做一番解释。

So as we saw with this flipping the pyramid of poverty,

如同我们所看到的这个 贫穷倒金字塔一样，

China has actually soared.

中国确实在崛起。

It's meteoric.

如同流星般快速向前。

Former Czech president, Vaclav Havel, I think, put it best.

我认为前任捷克总统 瓦茨拉夫·哈维尔的描述很准确。

He said, "All this has happened so fast, we haven't yet had time to be astonished."

他说：“这一切发生得太快了， 我们甚至还来不及去惊讶。”

(Laughter)

（笑声）

To remind myself how astonished I should be,

为了提醒我自己应该有多惊讶，

I occasionally look out the window in my office in Cambridge

我坐在自己在剑桥的办公室， 偶尔会朝窗外望去

at this bridge, which goes across the Charles River,

这座横跨查尔斯河的桥，

between the Kennedy School and Harvard Business School.

它处于哈佛的 肯尼迪政府学院和商学院之间。

In 2012, the State of Massachusetts said they were going to renovate this bridge,

2012年，马萨诸塞州宣布 他们将翻新这座桥，

and it would take two years.

预计将花费两年时间。

In 2014, they said it wasn't finished.

可到了2014年还没竣工。

In 2015, they said it would take one more year.

2015年时， 他们说要再一年。

In 2016, they said it's not finished,

到了2016年他们又说未能竣工，

we're not going to tell you when it's going to be finished.

我不是打算告诉大家它什么时候能竣工。

Finally, last year, it was finished -- three times over budget.

最终，这项工程在去年竣工-- 实际花费金额是预算的三倍。

Now, compare this to a similar bridge that I drove across last month in Beijing.

现在，把这架桥和我上月在北京 曾驾驶穿过的一座桥做对比。

It's called the Sanyuan Bridge.

这座桥叫三元桥。

In 2015, the Chinese decided they wanted to renovate that bridge.

2015年时中国人 决定翻新这座桥。

It actually has twice as many lanes of traffic.

这座桥的交通车道数 是剑桥的两倍。

How long did it take for them to complete the project?

中国人花了多久完成这项工程呢？

Twenty fifteen, what do you bet?

2015年， 你们猜是花了多久？

Take a guess -- OK, three --

猜一下--好，三（年）

Take a look.

我们看看这段录像吧

(Laughter)

（笑声）

The answer is 43 hours.

答案是43小时。

(Audience: Wow!)

（观众：哇！）

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Graham Allison: Now, of course, that couldn't happen in New York.

当然，这种事不可能发生在纽约。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Behind this speed in execution is a purpose-driven leader

在这执行速度的背后 是由以目标驱动行动的领导者，

and a government that works.

和一个干实事的政府。

The most ambitious and most competent leader

在如今的国际舞台上 最有雄心和最有竞争力的领导者，

on the international stage today is Chinese President Xi Jinping.

是中国国家主席习近平。

And he's made no secret about what he wants.

他从不掩饰 自己想得到什么。

As he said when he became president six years ago,

如同他六年前当选主席时所说。

his goal is to make China great again --

他的目标就是要让 中国再次变得伟大—

(Laughter)

（笑声）

a banner he raised long before Donald Trump picked up a version of this.

这个口号早在特朗普 提出类似的话前就已经出现了。

To that end, Xi Jinping has announced specific targets for specific dates:

那时习近平还宣布了 特定日期应完成的特定目标：

2025, 2035, 2049.

2025年，2035年，2049年，

By 2025, China means to be the dominant power

到2025年时， 中国要成为10个先进科技领域，

in the major market in 10 leading technologies,

主要市场中的主导力量，

including driverless cars, robots,

这其中包括 无人驾驶汽车，机器人，

artificial intelligence, quantum computing.

人工智能和量子计算。

By 2035, China means to be the innovation leader

到2035年时， 中国要成为所有先进科技领域中

across all the advanced technologies.

最具创新力的领导者。

And by 2049, which is the 100th anniversary

并且到2049年， 中华人民共和国，

of the founding of the People's Republic,

成立100周年之际，

China means to be unambiguously number one,

中国要成为无可争议的第一，

including, [says] Xi Jinping, an army that he calls "Fight and Win."

其中包括，习近平强调， 一支他称为“打得赢”的军队。

So these are audacious goals, but as you can see,

这些都是大胆的目标， 但是大家都知道，

China is already well on its way

中国在朝着目标的路上，

to these objectives.

一路走得稳扎稳打。

And we should remember how fast our world is changing.

我们还需提醒自己 这个世界的变化之快。

Thirty years ago,

三十年前，

the World Wide Web had not yet even been invented.

万维网还没出现。

Who will feel the impact of this rise of China most directly?

有谁能直观地感受到 中国崛起的影响力呢？

Obviously, the current number one.

答案显而易见的， 便是当今的第一大国。

As China gets bigger and stronger and richer,

随着中国变得 愈发强大和富有，

technologically more advanced,

科技变得更加先进，

it will inevitably bump up against American positions and prerogatives.

中国将注定要对 美国的地位和特权产生威胁。

Now, for red-blooded Americans --

对于那些热血沸腾的美国人来说——

and especially for red-necked Americans like me; I'm from North Carolina --

尤其是像我一样的美国乡巴佬-- 我来自北卡罗莱纳州，

there's something wrong with this picture.

这张宏大的蓝图里有点不对劲。

The USA means number one, that's who we are.

美国就是“第一”的代名词， 这点毋庸置疑，

But again, to repeat: brute facts are hard to ignore.

但是还需再次强调： 我们无法忽视残忍的事实。

Four years ago, Senator John McCain asked me to testify about this

四年前，参议员约翰·麦凯恩想让我，

to his Senate Armed Services Committee.

向参议院军事委员会阐明这个事实。

And I made for them a chart that you can see,

我便给他们绘制了一张表，如大家所见，

that said, compare the US and China

在这个表中，我把中美对比：

to kids on opposite ends of a seesaw on a playground,

比喻成在操场上玩跷跷板的两个小孩子，

each represented by the size of their economy.

尺寸大小由两国的经济规模决定。

As late as 2004, China was just half our size.

2004年时， 中国的规模仅占美国的一半。

By 2014, its GDP was equal to ours.

到了2014年， 中国的GDP值和美国一样了。

And on the current trajectory, by 2024, it will be half again larger.

照此形势发展，到2024年时 中国的规模会变得比美国大一半。

The consequences of this tectonic change will be felt everywhere.

这个构造层面的改变结果 体现在方方面面。

For example, in the current trade conflict,

举个例子，在如今的贸易冲突中，

China is already the number one trading partner

中国已经成为了所有亚洲主要国家的，

of all the major Asian countries.

第一大贸易伙伴。

Which brings us back to our Greek historian.

这个事实又把我们 带回了修昔底德的理论。

Harvard's "Thucydides's Trap Case File" has reviewed the last 500 years of history

哈佛大学的“修昔底德案例文档” 回顾了前500年里的历史，

and found 16 cases in which a rising power

并发现16个档案里出现了，

threatened to displace a ruling power.

崛起力量威胁掌权力量的事件。

Twelve of these ended in war.

这其中12个案例以战争结束。

And the tragedy of this is that in very few of these

最为悲剧的是，很少有主角，

did either of the protagonists want a war;

想要发动战争；

few of these wars were initiated by either the rising power

其中只有几场战争是 由崛起力量，

or the ruling power.

或掌权力量发起的。

So how does this work?

事情是如何进展的？

What happens is, a third party's provocation

实际上，第三方势力的挑衅，

forces one or the other to react,

造成了某一方势力的躁动，

and that sets in motion a spiral,

而这便形成了一个漩涡，

which drags the two somewhere they don't want to go.

把这两方势力拽进了 未曾想到达的地步。

If that seems crazy, it is.

这听起来有点疯狂， 确实是这样的。

But it's life.

但现实如此。

Remember World War I.

回想一下 世界第一次大战。

The provocation in that case

那场战争的导火索，

was the assassination of a second-level figure,

便是矛头指向二级人物，

Archduke Franz Ferdinand,

弗朗茨·斐迪南大公的刺杀行动，

which then led the Austro-Hungarian emperor

这导致了奥匈帝国的皇帝，

to issue an ultimatum to Serbia,

下达对塞尔维亚的最后通牒，

they dragged in the various allies,

随后形成了多方势力的盟军，

within two months, all of Europe was at war.

两个月不到， 全欧洲便陷入战争。

So imagine if Thucydides were watching planet Earth today.

想象一下修昔底德 观望如今的地球形势。

What would he say?

他会发表什么看法？

Could he find a more appropriate leading man for the ruling power

他会找到一个比特朗普更合适，

than Donald J Trump?

掌权力量的领导者吗？

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Or a more apt lead for the rising power than Xi Jinping?

或者找到一个比习近平 更合适的崛起力量领导者？

And he would scratch his head

然后他会挠挠头，

and certainly say he couldn't think of more colorful provocateur

并十分确信地说他无法找到，

than North Korea's Kim Jong-un.

比朝鲜领导者金正恩 更具鲜明色彩的煽动者了。

Each seems determined to play his assigned part

每个人似乎都在扮演着 被分配好的角色，

and is right on script.

并按着剧本发展进行。

So finally, we conclude again with the most consequential question,

最后，我们再以最重要的问题总结，

the question that will have the gravest consequences

这个问题对我们的余生，

for the rest of our lives:

都具有重大意义：

Are Americans and Chinese going to let the forces of history drive us to a war

美国人和中国人 难道就打算让历史的车轮，

that would be catastrophic for both?

载着他们驶向对任何人 都没好处的灾难性战争吗？

Or can we summon the imagination and courage

又或，我们能征服想象力和勇气，

to find a way to survive together,

寻找一条共生之路，

to share the leadership in the 21st century,

分享21世纪的领导权力，

or, as Xi Jinping [said], to create a new form of great power relations?

或者就如习近平所说， 创造一种新形式的权力联盟吗？

That's the issue I've been pursuing passionately

这个话题是我近两年来，

for the last two years.

一直在热切思考的。

I've had the opportunity to talk and, indeed, to listen

我曾有机会去和所有相关政府--

to leaders of all the relevant governments --

北京，华盛顿，

Beijing, Washington, Seoul, Tokyo --

首尔，东京--讨论与倾听，

and to thought leaders across the spectrum of both the arts and business.

并从艺术和商业范围判断这些领导者。

I wish I had more to report.

我不方便透露更多。

The good news is that leaders are increasingly aware

好消息是，这些领导者 对于修昔底德的理论，

of this Thucydidean dynamic

以及其可能造成的危险，

and the dangers that it poses.

开始逐渐重视起来。

The bad news is that nobody has a feasible plan

坏消息是， 没有人制定出可行的方案，

for escaping history as usual.

来逃出历史的怪圈。

So it's clear to me that we need some ideas

所以我很清楚我们需要，

outside the box of conventional statecraft --

在常规之外寻找些想法--

indeed, from another page or another space --

实际上，是从另一角度 或者另一空间--

which is what brings me to TED today

这便成为了我今天来TED的缘由，

and which brings me to a request.

也促使我发出请求。

This audience includes many of the most creative minds on the planet,

在座的观众中囊括了 这个星球上最富创造力的大脑，

who get up in the morning and think

你们会早上起来时思索，

not only about how to manage the world we have,

不局限于关于如何管理 这个世界的问题，

but how to create worlds that should be.

也去思考该如何创造 一个应有的世界。

So I'm hopeful that as this sinks in and as you reflect on it,

所以我希望随着 大家思考得越深入，

some of you are going to have some bold ideas, actually some wild ideas,

在座的人里可能， 会产生些些大胆的甚至疯狂的想法。

that when we find, will make a difference in this space.

而当这些想法被发现时， 便会给这个世界带来些不同。

And just to remind you if you do,

提醒一下，如果你想尝试的话，

this won't be the first time.

这并不是历史上的首次尝试。

Let me remind you of what happened right after World War II.

我再来讲述一下 第二次世界大战后发生的事吧。

A remarkable group of Americans and Europeans and others,

一个由美国人，欧洲人和其他地区的人 组成的杰出组织，

not just from government, but from the world of culture and business,

其中不仅有拥有政府工作背景的成员， 还有来自文化界和商界的成员。

engaged in a collective surge of imagination.

他们把自己投入进想象力集合工程。

And what they imagined and what they created

这些人所想象和创造的，

was a new international order,

是新的国际秩序，

the order that's allowed you and me to live our lives, all of our lives,

一个让你，我，所有人都拥有自己的生活，

without great power war

让大规模战争消失殆尽，

and with more prosperity than was ever seen before on the planet.

并带来前所未有的繁荣的秩序。

So, a remarkable story.

这是一段很杰出的事迹。

Interestingly, every pillar of this project that produced these results,

有趣的是，这个项目中的每一环，

when first proposed,

在最开始公布的时候，

was rejected by the foreign policy establishment

被对外政策体制 以幼稚和不现实为由，

as naive or unrealistic.

给拒绝。

My favorite is the Marshall Plan.

我最欣赏的是马歇尔计划。

After World War II, Americans felt exhausted.

第二次世界大战结束后， 美国已精疲力竭。

They had demobilized 10 million troops,

它们遣散了一千万支军队，

they were focused on an urgent domestic agenda.

并把精力放在 紧急国内议程中。

But as people began to appreciate how devastated Europe was

但当人们开始意识到 欧洲是怎么满目疮痍

and how aggressive Soviet communism was,

以及苏联共产主义 如何强势时，

Americans eventually decided to tax themselves

美国人最后决定在四年内

a percent and a half of GDP every year for four years

向人民征收占GDP 1.5%的税金，

and send that money to Europe to help reconstruct these countries,

并把这些钱送至欧洲协助重建，

including Germany and Italy,

包括德国和意大利，

whose troops had just been killing Americans.

这些美国昔日的敌军。

Amazing.

令人惊叹。

This also created the United Nations.

这件事也促使了联合国的建立。

Amazing.

令人惊叹。

The Universal Declaration of Human Rights.

世界人权宣言。

The World Bank.

世界银行。

NATO.

北大西洋公约组织。

All of these elements of an order for peace and prosperity.

所有这些都是这个以和平繁荣 为目的的秩序的产物。

So, in a word, what we need to do is do it again.

总之，我们所需的是 重新再做一遍。

And I think now we need a surge of imagination, creativity,

并且我认为现在我们需要 想象力和创造力的迸发，

informed by history,

前事不忘后事之师，

for, as the philosopher Santayana reminded us,

因为哲学家桑塔耶拿告诫我们，

in the end, only those who refuse to study history

最后，只有那些拒绝学习历史的人，

are condemned to repeat it.

会被迫重蹈历史的覆辙。

Thank you.

谢谢大家。

(Applause)

（掌声）