Is war between China and the US inevitable? | Graham Allison

譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Yanyan Hong

So, let me thank you for the opportunity to talk about

謝謝各位，讓我有機會來談論

the biggest international story of your professional lifetime,

你們職業生涯中 最大的國際故事，

which is also the most important international challenge

它同時也是我們所能看見 世界將要面對的

the world will face for as far as the eye can see.

國際挑戰中， 最重要的一個。

The story, of course, is the rise of China.

當然，這個故事就是中國的崛起。

Never before have so many people risen so far so fast,

以前從來沒有這麼多人

在這麼多面上 如此快速崛起。

on so many different dimensions.

The challenge is the impact of China's rise --

而挑戰就是， 中國崛起的影響——

the discombobulation this will cause the Unites States

它將會造成美國

和國際秩序的混亂，

and the international order,

of which the US has been the principal architect and guardian.

因為美國一直是國際秩序的 主要建築師和守護者。

The past 100 years have been what historians now call an "American Century."

過去一百年是歷史學家 所謂的「美國世紀」。

Americans have become accustomed to their place

美國人已經習慣了 他們在所有權勢等級中

at the top of every pecking order.

都位在頂端的地位。

So the very idea of another country

所以，有另一個國家有可能會

that could be as big and strong as the US -- or bigger --

和美國一樣大、一樣強壯—— 或更大——的這個想法，

strikes many Americans as an assault on who they are.

讓美國人覺得身分受到了侮辱。

For perspective on what we're now seeing in this rivalry,

就我們現在在這場競中 所看見的層面來說，

it's useful to locate it on the larger map of history.

把它標示在歷史地圖上會更有用。

The past 500 years have seen 16 cases

過去五百年， 我們已經看到十六個案例，

in which a rising power threatened to displace a ruling power.

都是新興的政權威脅 要取代正在統治的政權。

Twelve of those ended in war.

其中十二個案例 都是以戰爭收場。

So just in November, we'll all pause to mark the 100th anniversary

所以，在十一月，

我們都將會為了 戰爭結束一百週年

of the final day of a war that became so encompassing,

而暫停下來， 這場戰爭涵蓋太廣了，

that it required historians to create an entirely new category: world war.

以至於歷史學家得為它創造出 一個全新的類別：世界大戰。

So, on the 11th hour of the 11th day

所以，在 1918 年 11 月

of the 11th month in 1918,

11 日 11 點，

the guns of World War I fell silent,

第一次世界大戰 不再有任何槍響了，

but 20 million individuals lay dead.

但已經有兩千萬人身亡。

I know that this is a sophisticated audience,

我知道這裡的觀眾都很有 知識經驗，知道中國的崛起。

so you know about the rise of China.

I'm going to focus, therefore, on the impact of China's rise,

因此，我要把焦點放在 中國崛起的影響，

on the US, on the international order

對美國、對國際秩序，

and on the prospects for war and peace.

以及對戰爭與和平之前景的影響。

But having taught at Harvard over many years,

但，我在哈佛教書了很多年，

I've learned that from time to time, it's useful to take a short pause,

我不時會學到， 短暫地暫停一下來確保

just to make sure we're all on the same page.

大家意見都一致 是很有幫助的。

The way I do this is, I call a time-out,

我稱它作「暫停」， 我暫停的方式是，

I give students a pop quiz -- ungraded, of course.

我會給學生突襲測驗—— 當然，不算分的。

So, let's try this. Time-out, pop quiz.

所以，咱們來試一下。 暫停，突襲測驗。

Question:

問題：

forty years ago, 1978, China sets out on its march to the market.

四十年前，1978 年， 中國開始進軍市場。

At that point, what percentage of China's one billion citizens

在那時，中國十萬公民 當中有多少百分比

were struggling to survive on less than two dollars a day?

要以一天不到二美元的薪水 掙扎著求生存？

Take a guess -- 25 percent?

猜猜看——25%？

Fifty?

50%？

Seventy-five?

75%？

Ninety.

90%。

What do you think?

你們認為呢？

Ninety.

90%。

Nine out of every 10 on less than two dollars a day.

十個人當中有九個人， 一天賺不到二美元。

Twenty eighteen, 40 years later.

2018 年，四十年後。

What about the numbers?

這個數字變成多少？ 你們猜多少？

What's your bet?

Take a look.

看一看這個。

Fewer than one in 100 today.

現今是一百個人中不到一個人。

And China's president has promised that within the next three years,

中國的國家主席保證， 在接下來的三年內，

those last tens of millions will have been raised up

那最後的一千萬人

將會被提升到那水平之上。

above that threshold.

So it's a miracle, actually, in our lifetime.

這真的是我們人生中的一個奇蹟。

Hard to believe.

很難相信，但殘酷的事實 更是難以忽略。

But brute facts are even harder to ignore.

A nation that didn't even appear on any of the international league tables

二十五年前，這個國家 甚至沒有出現在任何國際聯盟中，

25 years ago

has soared,

卻高飛了，與美國並駕齊驅—— 在某些地區，甚至超越美國。

to rival -- and in some areas, surpass -- the United States.

Thus, the challenge that will shape our world:

因此，這個挑戰 會形塑我們的世界：

a seemingly unstoppable rising China

看似勢不可擋的新興中國

accelerating towards an apparently immovable ruling US,

加速朝向具有支配地位但明顯 只在原地踏步的美國前進，

on course for what could be the grandest collision in history.

這個軌道的終點會是 歷史上最雄偉的撞擊。

To help us get our minds around this challenge,

為了協助我們理解這項挑戰，

I'm going to introduce you to a great thinker,

我會向各位介紹一位偉大的思想家，

I'm going to present a big idea,

我會展示出一個遠大的想法，

and I'm going to pose a most consequential question.

然後我會丟出一個最必然的問題。

The great thinker is Thucydides.

這位偉大的思想家是修西得底斯。

Now, I know his name is a mouthful,

我知道他的名字很難唸，

and some people have trouble pronouncing it.

有些人不知道要如何發音。

So, let's do it, one, two, three, together:

所以，咱們來唸一次， 一、二、三，一起唸。

Thucydides.

修西得底斯。

One more time: Thucydides.

再一次：修西得底斯。

So who was Thucydides?

所以，修西得底斯是誰？

He was the father and founder of history.

他是歷史之父及歷史的奠基者。

He wrote the first-ever history book.

他寫了史上第一本史書。

It's titled "The History of the Peloponnesian War,"

書名叫《伯羅奔尼撒戰爭史》，

about the war in Greece, 2500 years ago.

內容講的是 2500 年前 在希臘的戰爭。

So if nothing else today, you can tweet your friends,

如果今天沒別的事， 你可以上推特告訴你的朋友：

"I met a great thinker.

「我遇到了一個偉大的思想家。

And I can even pronounce his name: Thucydides."

我甚至知道他的名字 怎麼發音：修西得底斯。」

So, about this war that destroyed classical Greece,

所以，這場戰爭摧毀了古典希臘，

Thucydides wrote famously:

修西得底斯有句 很有名的句子：

"It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta

「是雅典的崛起

和害怕這會慢慢地灌輸到 斯巴達的恐懼，

that made the war inevitable."

讓這場戰爭變得無可避免。」

So the rise of one

所以，一方的崛起，

and the reaction of the other

以及另一方的反應，

create a toxic cocktail of pride,

會調出有毒的雞尾酒， 混合了驕傲、

arrogance, paranoia,

自大、妄想，

that drug them both to war.

讓雙方中了要引發戰爭的毒。

Which brings me to the big idea:

這就要談到一個遠大的想法了：

Thucydides's Trap.

修西得底斯的陷阱。

"Thucydides's Trap" is a term I coined several years ago,

「修西得底斯的陷阱」 是我在幾年前創造出來的新詞，

to make vivid Thucydides's insight.

讓修西得底斯的洞見變得更生動。

Thucydides's Trap is the dangerous dynamic that occurs

修西得底斯的陷阱是一種 危險的動態，會出現的時候是

when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power,

當新興的政權威脅要取代掉 正在統治的政權時，

like Athens --

就像是雅典——

or Germany 100 years ago, or China today --

或一百年前的德國， 或現今的中國——

and their impact on Sparta,

以及他們對斯巴達的影響，

or Great Britain 100 years ago, or the US today.

或是一百年前的大布列顛， 或現今的美國。

As Henry Kissinger has said,

如亨利季辛吉說過的，

once you get this idea, this concept of Thucydides's Trap in your head,

一旦「修西得底斯的陷阱」 這個想法概念進到你的腦袋中，

it will provide a lens

它就會提供一副透鏡，

for helping you look through the news and noise of the day

協助你看穿現今的新聞和噪音，

to understand what's actually going on.

了解真正發生了什麼事。

So, to the most consequential question about our world today:

所以，關於我們現今的世界， 最必然的問題就是：

Are we going to follow in the footsteps of history?

我們是否會追隨著歷史的腳步？

Or can we, through a combination of imagination and common sense

或是，我們能否透過

想像力、常識，和勇氣的組合，

and courage

find a way to manage this rivalry

來找到一種方式，處理這種競爭，

without a war nobody wants,

且不會引發沒有人想要

and everybody knows would be catastrophic?

且人人都知道結果 會很慘烈的戰爭？

Give me five minutes to unpack this,

給我五分鐘來說明，

and later this afternoon, when the next news story pops up for you

然後，今天下午晚些時候， 如果你碰到了下一個

about China doing this, or the US reacting like that,

關於中國在這麼做、 或美國如何應對的報導時，

you will be able to have a better understanding of what's going on

你將會更了解發生了什麼事，

and even to explain it to your friends.

甚至還可以跟你的朋友解釋。

So as we saw with this flipping the pyramid of poverty,

所以，當我們看到貧困金字塔 被翻轉的這個狀況時，

China has actually soared.

中國已經在起飛了。

It's meteoric.

這是流星般的。

Former Czech president, Vaclav Havel, I think, put it best.

我認為捷克前總統 瓦茨拉夫哈維爾的說法是最棒的。

He said, "All this has happened so fast, we haven't yet had time to be astonished."

他說：「這一切發生得好快， 我們都沒有時間吃驚。」

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

To remind myself how astonished I should be,

為了提醒我自己， 我應該要有多吃驚，

I occasionally look out the window in my office in Cambridge

我偶爾會看向劍橋辦公室的窗外，

at this bridge, which goes across the Charles River,

看著這座橋， 它跨座在查爾斯河上，

between the Kennedy School and Harvard Business School.

位於堅尼地小學 和哈佛商學院之間。

In 2012, the State of Massachusetts said they were going to renovate this bridge,

2012 年，麻薩諸塞州說 他們要重條這座橋，

and it would take two years.

會費時兩年。

In 2014, they said it wasn't finished.

2014 年，他們說尚未完成。

In 2015, they said it would take one more year.

2015 年，他們說還要再一年。

In 2016, they said it's not finished,

2016 年，他們說尚未完成，

we're not going to tell you when it's going to be finished.

我們不會告訴你們何時會完成。

Finally, last year, it was finished -- three times over budget.

終於，去年，完工了—— 預算超支了三倍。

Now, compare this to a similar bridge that I drove across last month in Beijing.

把它和我上個月在北京開車

經過的一座類似橋樑做個比較。

It's called the Sanyuan Bridge.

它叫做三元橋。

In 2015, the Chinese decided they wanted to renovate that bridge.

2015 年，中國人決定要把這座橋重修。

It actually has twice as many lanes of traffic.

它的線道其實是剛才那座橋的兩倍。

How long did it take for them to complete the project?

他們花了多少時間完成這項計畫？

Twenty fifteen, what do you bet?

2015 年，你們覺得呢？

Take a guess -- OK, three --

猜猜看——好，三年——

Take a look.

看看吧。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

The answer is 43 hours.

答案是 43 小時。

(Audience: Wow!)

（觀眾：哇！）

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Graham Allison: Now, of course, that couldn't happen in New York.

講者：當然， 這在紐約是不可能發生的。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Behind this speed in execution is a purpose-driven leader

在這種執行速度的背後，

是一位目的導向的領導者，

and a government that works.

以及一個有用的政府。

The most ambitious and most competent leader

現今在國際舞台上最有野心 且最有能力的領導者，

on the international stage today is Chinese President Xi Jinping.

就是中國國家主席習近平。

And he's made no secret about what he wants.

且他完全不隱藏他想要什麼。

As he said when he became president six years ago,

六年前，他當上國家主席時，他說

his goal is to make China great again --

他的目標是要讓中國再次偉大——

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

a banner he raised long before Donald Trump picked up a version of this.

他很早就打出這個標語，唐納川普 到很久之後才採用它的一個版本。

To that end, Xi Jinping has announced specific targets for specific dates:

為了達成這個遠景，習近平宣佈了

明確的目標和明確的日期：

2025, 2035, 2049.

2025 年、2035 年、2049 年。

By 2025, China means to be the dominant power

2025 年，

中國要在十項最重要科技的

in the major market in 10 leading technologies,

主要市場中佔有主導支配的地位，

including driverless cars, robots,

包括無人駕駛汽車、機器人、

artificial intelligence, quantum computing.

人工智慧、量子計算。

By 2035, China means to be the innovation leader

2035 年，中國要成為

所有先進科技中的創新領導者。

across all the advanced technologies.

And by 2049, which is the 100th anniversary

2049 年，也就是中華人民共和國

of the founding of the People's Republic,

創立的一百週年，

China means to be unambiguously number one,

中國要明確成為第一名，

including, [says] Xi Jinping, an army that he calls "Fight and Win."

習近平說，還包括 一支「能打勝仗」的軍隊。

So these are audacious goals, but as you can see,

這些目標很大膽，但如你們所見，

China is already well on its way

中國已經踏上 朝這些方針邁進的路了。

to these objectives.

And we should remember how fast our world is changing.

我們應該要記得 我們的世界改變有多快。

Thirty years ago,

三十年前，

the World Wide Web had not yet even been invented.

全球資訊網還沒被發明出來。

Who will feel the impact of this rise of China most directly?

對於中國的崛起， 誰感受到的衝擊最直接？

Obviously, the current number one.

很明顯，就是目前的龍頭。

As China gets bigger and stronger and richer,

隨著中國變壯大、變富有，

technologically more advanced,

且在科技上更先進，

it will inevitably bump up against American positions and prerogatives.

無可避免，它一定會撞擊到 美國的地位和特權。

Now, for red-blooded Americans --

對於血氣方剛的美國人來說——

and especially for red-necked Americans like me; I'm from North Carolina --

特別是易怒的美國鄉巴佬， 像我，我來自北卡羅萊納州——

there's something wrong with this picture.

這個局面有點不對勁。

The USA means number one, that's who we are.

美國代表著第一名，那就是我們。

But again, to repeat: brute facts are hard to ignore.

但，再說一次： 殘酷的事實難以忽略。

Four years ago, Senator John McCain asked me to testify about this

四年前，參議員約翰馬侃 要求我為此作證，

to his Senate Armed Services Committee.

對象是他的美國參議院軍事委員會。

And I made for them a chart that you can see,

我為他們製作了一張圖， 你們可以看到，

that said, compare the US and China

它說的是，把美國和中國比喻成

to kids on opposite ends of a seesaw on a playground,

在遊樂場上分別坐在 翹翹板兩端的孩子，

each represented by the size of their economy.

大小代表的是它們的經濟規模。

As late as 2004, China was just half our size.

2004 年末，中國的大小 只有我們的一半。

By 2014, its GDP was equal to ours.

2014 年，中國的 GDP 和我們的打平。

And on the current trajectory, by 2024, it will be half again larger.

依目前的軌道繼續下去， 到了2024 年，

它會比我們大一半。

The consequences of this tectonic change will be felt everywhere.

這種構造改變的後果， 將會無所不在。

For example, in the current trade conflict,

比如，在目前的貿易衝突中，

China is already the number one trading partner

中國已經是所有亞洲國家中

of all the major Asian countries.

第一名的貿易夥伴。

Which brings us back to our Greek historian.

這就要把我們帶回到 我們的希臘歷史學家。

Harvard's "Thucydides's Trap Case File" has reviewed the last 500 years of history

哈佛的「修西得底斯的 陷阱案例檔案」

回顧了過去五百年的歷史，

and found 16 cases in which a rising power

發現了十六個案例，

都是新興的政權威脅 要取代正在統治的政權。

threatened to displace a ruling power.

Twelve of these ended in war.

當中十二個以戰爭收場。

And the tragedy of this is that in very few of these

這當中的悲劇是，

在大部分這些案例中，

did either of the protagonists want a war;

其實雙方的倡導者都不想要打戰；

few of these wars were initiated by either the rising power

沒有幾個案例是由新興政權 或是統治政權發起戰爭的。

or the ruling power.

So how does this work?

那麼， 這是怎麼回事？

What happens is, a third party's provocation

發生的狀況是，第三方的挑釁

forces one or the other to react,

迫使其中一方做出反應，

and that sets in motion a spiral,

讓一個螺旋轉動起來，

which drags the two somewhere they don't want to go.

把雙方都拖到了 它們不想要去的地方。

If that seems crazy, it is.

如果那聽起來很瘋狂， 的確，但那就是人生。

But it's life.

Remember World War I.

別忘了第一次世界大戰。

The provocation in that case

在那個案例中的挑釁

was the assassination of a second-level figure,

就是刺殺了一位二級的人物

Archduke Franz Ferdinand,

法蘭茲斐迪南大公，

which then led the Austro-Hungarian emperor

這個事件造成奧匈帝國的帝王

to issue an ultimatum to Serbia,

對塞爾維亞發出最後通牒， 他們把各方盟友都拉進來，

they dragged in the various allies,

within two months, all of Europe was at war.

在兩個月內，整個歐洲都在打戰。

So imagine if Thucydides were watching planet Earth today.

所以，想像一下，如果現今 修西得底斯在看著地球。

What would he say?

他會怎麼說？

Could he find a more appropriate leading man for the ruling power

對於統治的政權，他能找到

一個比川普更適合的領導人嗎？

than Donald J Trump?

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Or a more apt lead for the rising power than Xi Jinping?

或是為新興政權找到一個 比習近平更恰當的領導？

And he would scratch his head

他會很傷腦筋，

and certainly say he couldn't think of more colorful provocateur

肯定會說他想不出比北韓的金正恩

than North Korea's Kim Jong-un.

更生動的挑唆者了。

Each seems determined to play his assigned part

每個人似乎都很堅決 要扮演他們被分派的角色，

and is right on script.

且完全照劇本演出。

So finally, we conclude again with the most consequential question,

所以，終於，我們再次 用最必然的問題來下結論，

the question that will have the gravest consequences

這個問題對於我們往後的生活

for the rest of our lives:

會有最嚴重的後果：

Are Americans and Chinese going to let the forces of history drive us to a war

美國人和中國人會讓 歷史的力量將我們推向

一場會讓雙方都很慘的戰爭嗎？

that would be catastrophic for both?

Or can we summon the imagination and courage

或是我們能夠喚起 我們的想像力和勇氣，

to find a way to survive together,

找到一種方式，一起生存下去，

to share the leadership in the 21st century,

在 21 世紀共享領導權，

or, as Xi Jinping [said], to create a new form of great power relations?

或是，如習近平所言， 創造出偉大政權關係的新形式？

That's the issue I've been pursuing passionately

這是我過去兩年一直 很熱切在追尋的議題。

for the last two years.

I've had the opportunity to talk and, indeed, to listen

我有機會能夠和所有 相關政府的領袖

to leaders of all the relevant governments --

談話並傾聽他們——

Beijing, Washington, Seoul, Tokyo --

北京、華盛頓、首爾、東京——

and to thought leaders across the spectrum of both the arts and business.

還有在藝術和商業光譜上 不同位置的思想領袖。

I wish I had more to report.

我希望我有更多可以報告。

The good news is that leaders are increasingly aware

好消息是，領袖們都越來越意識到

of this Thucydidean dynamic

這種修西得底斯動態，

and the dangers that it poses.

以及它所造成的危險。

The bad news is that nobody has a feasible plan

壞消息是，沒有人 有一個可行的計畫

for escaping history as usual.

來像往常一樣逃離歷史。

So it's clear to me that we need some ideas

所以，我很清楚知道我們需要一些

outside the box of conventional statecraft --

打破傳統狀態圖的不同想法——

indeed, from another page or another space --

的確，來自另一頁 或另一個空間——

which is what brings me to TED today

這就是今天我來 TED 的目的，

and which brings me to a request.

這就帶到我的一個請求。

This audience includes many of the most creative minds on the planet,

在這個觀眾群中有一些

地球上最有創意的人，

who get up in the morning and think

早上起床時想的不只是 如何管理我們現有的世界，

not only about how to manage the world we have,

but how to create worlds that should be.

還要如何把世界創造成 它應有的樣子。

So I'm hopeful that as this sinks in and as you reflect on it,

所以，我希望這能夠被聽進去， 且當你們在思考它時，

some of you are going to have some bold ideas, actually some wild ideas,

有些人可能會有一些大膽的想法， 一些狂野的想法，

that when we find, will make a difference in this space.

如果能做到，就會讓這個空間 有所不同的想法。

And just to remind you if you do,

只是想提醒大家， 如果你們真的有，

this won't be the first time.

這也不是第一次。

Let me remind you of what happened right after World War II.

讓我提醒大家在第二次世界大戰 之後發生了什麼事。

A remarkable group of Americans and Europeans and others,

有一群很了不起的人，包括 美國人、歐洲人，及其他人，

not just from government, but from the world of culture and business,

不僅是來自政府的人， 還有來自文化和商業界的人，

engaged in a collective surge of imagination.

一同參與集體的想像力浪潮。

And what they imagined and what they created

他們所想像出來的、創造出來的，

was a new international order,

是一種新的國際秩序，

the order that's allowed you and me to live our lives, all of our lives,

這種秩序讓你我能過 我們的生活，所有人都能，

without great power war

且沒有強權戰爭，

and with more prosperity than was ever seen before on the planet.

且有著在地球上從未見過的繁榮。

So, a remarkable story.

所以，一個不凡的故事。

Interestingly, every pillar of this project that produced these results,

有趣的是，讓這個計畫

能夠產生這些結果的每一根支柱，

when first proposed,

在一開始被提出時，

was rejected by the foreign policy establishment

都被外交政策機關給拒絕，

as naive or unrealistic.

認為太天真或不實際。

My favorite is the Marshall Plan.

我最喜歡的是馬歇爾計畫。

After World War II, Americans felt exhausted.

在第二次世界大戰後， 美國感到精疲力竭。

They had demobilized 10 million troops,

他們讓一千萬名士兵退伍，

they were focused on an urgent domestic agenda.

他們把焦點放到緊急的國內議程上。

But as people began to appreciate how devastated Europe was

但當大家開始了解 歐洲有多麼身心交瘁，

and how aggressive Soviet communism was,

以及蘇聯共產主義有多麼激進，

Americans eventually decided to tax themselves

美國人最終決定 要向他們自己課稅，

a percent and a half of GDP every year for four years

每年 1.5% 的 GDP，持續四年，

and send that money to Europe to help reconstruct these countries,

把收到的錢送給歐洲， 協助重建這些國家，

including Germany and Italy,

包括德國和義大利，

whose troops had just been killing Americans.

他們的軍隊在戰時 一直在殺害美國人。

Amazing.

很不可思議。

This also created the United Nations.

這也創建出了聯合國。

Amazing.

很不可思議。

The Universal Declaration of Human Rights.

世界人權宣言。

The World Bank.

世界銀行。北大西洋公約組織。

NATO.

All of these elements of an order for peace and prosperity.

這些元素構成了 和平與繁榮的秩序。

So, in a word, what we need to do is do it again.

簡言之，我們需要的是 再做一次這樣的事。

And I think now we need a surge of imagination, creativity,

我認為現在我們需要 一波想像力、創意，

informed by history,

以歷史的資訊為基礎，

for, as the philosopher Santayana reminded us,

因為，如哲學家桑塔亞那提醒我們的，

in the end, only those who refuse to study history

最終，只有那些拒絕學習歷史的人

are condemned to repeat it.

才會注定要重蹈覆轍。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Applause)

（掌聲）