Sendhil Mullainathan: Solving social problems with a nudge

70,235 views ・ 2010-02-02

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翻译人员: 孜成 王 校对人员: Tony Yet
00:15
As a researcher, every once in a while
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作为一个搞研究的人
00:18
you encounter something
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时不时会遇到一些
00:20
a little disconcerting.
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令人不安的问题
00:22
And this is something that changes your understanding of the world around you,
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这些问题可以改变你对周围世界的认识
00:25
and teaches you that you're very wrong
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让你认识到 之前所深信的看法
00:27
about something that you really believed firmly in.
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其实存在很大的谬误
00:31
And these are unfortunate moments,
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这些都是不幸的时刻
00:34
because you go to sleep that night
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因为你在那晚入睡时
00:36
dumber than when you woke up.
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要比在早上起床时来得无知
00:39
So, that's really the goal of my talk,
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这也正是我本次演讲的目标
00:41
is to A, communicate that moment to you
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第一 相互交流各自的体会
00:43
and B, have you leave this session
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第二 让你们在离开会场时
00:45
a little dumber than when you entered.
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比你们进来时更加无知一点
00:47
So, I hope I can really accomplish that.
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希望我能达到这两点目标
00:50
So, this incident that I'm going to describe
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我要讲的这个问题
00:53
really began with some diarrhea.
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要从痢疾开始
00:56
Now, we've known for a long time the cause of diarrhea.
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我们对痢疾的病因已经很熟悉
00:59
That's why there's a glass of water up there.
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所以我放了一杯水的照片在那
01:02
For us, it's a problem, the people in this room.
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对在座的各位来说 这是个麻烦
01:04
For babies, it's deadly.
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对婴儿来说 这是致命的
01:07
They lack nutrients, and diarrhea dehydrates them.
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他们缺乏营养 痢疾会导致脱水
01:11
And so, as a result, there is a lot of death,
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因此 会有很多人夭折
01:13
a lot of death.
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很多人夭折
01:16
In India in 1960,
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在1960年的印度
01:18
there was a 24 percent child mortality rate,
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新生儿的死亡率达到24%
01:20
lots of people didn't make it. This is incredibly unfortunate.
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很多还能没能挺过去 实在是很不幸
01:24
One of the big reasons this happened was
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很重要的一个原因
01:26
because of diarrhea.
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就是痢疾
01:28
Now, there was a big effort to solve this problem,
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目前 人类已对痢疾的疗法付出了很大努力
01:31
and there was actually a big solution.
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也出现了很有效的疗法
01:35
This solution has been called, by some,
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这种疗法被某些人称为
01:37
"potentially the most important medical
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本世纪最重要的
01:39
advance this century."
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医学突破
01:42
Now, the solution turned out to be simple.
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疗法其实很简单
01:45
And what it was was oral rehydration salts.
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就是口服补液盐
01:49
Many of you have probably used this.
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很多人用过这种方法
01:51
It's brilliant. It's a way to get sodium
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这是个天才般的想法
01:53
and glucose together so that when you add it to water
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可以让钠和葡萄糖混合在一起 掺上水之后
01:56
the child is able to absorb it even during situations of diarrhea.
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婴儿即使在身患痢疾时也能吸收养分
01:59
Remarkable impact on mortality.
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有效的减少了死亡率
02:03
Massive solution to the problem.
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很好的治疗了痢疾
02:05
Flash forward: 1960, 24 percent child mortality
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婴儿死亡率从1960年的24%
02:08
has dropped to 6.5 percent today.
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下降到如今的6.5%
02:10
Still a big number, but a big drop.
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比例仍较高 但已经降了很多
02:13
It looks like the technological problem is solved.
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看上去技术上的问题已解决
02:16
But if you look, even today
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但直到如今
02:18
there are about 400,000 diarrhea-related deaths
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光是在印度 每年就有40万
02:20
in India alone.
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痢疾相关的死亡
02:22
What's going on here?
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这又是怎么回事?
02:24
Well the easy answer is, we just haven't gotten those salts
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你可以说 我们没有给他们提供
02:27
to those people.
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口服补液盐
02:29
That's actually not true.
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事实上不是这样
02:31
If you look in areas where these salts are completely available,
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在这些地方 口服补液盐完全可以买到
02:34
the price is low or zero, these deaths still continue abated.
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价格很低 甚至是免费的 但死亡还在发生
02:37
Maybe there's a biological answer.
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也许有生理上的原因
02:39
Maybe these are the deaths that simple rehydration
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也许单靠再水合的方法
02:41
alone doesn't solve. That's not true either.
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无法挽救这些生命 但这也不是事实
02:44
Many of these deaths were completely preventable,
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很多死亡是完全可以避免的
02:49
and this what I want to think of as the disconcerting thing,
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这就是令我感到不安的问题
02:52
what I want to call "the last mile" problem.
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我称之为"最后一英里"问题
02:54
See, we spent a lot of energy, in many domains --
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我们在各个领域消耗了很多的资源
02:58
technological, scientific, hard work,
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利用技术 科学手段
03:00
creativity, human ingenuity --
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通过人类的汗水 灵巧 创造力
03:02
to crack important social problems with technology solutions.
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用技术手段攻克了许多重大社会问题
03:06
That's been the discoveries of the last 2,000 years,
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2000年以来都是如此
03:08
that's mankind moving forward.
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人类因此不断向前进
03:10
But in this case we cracked it,
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尽管攻克了很多难关
03:13
but a big part of the problem still remains.
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但还有很多问题依然存在
03:15
Nine hundred and ninety-nine miles went well,
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前面的999英里都走得很好
03:17
the last mile's proving incredibly stubborn.
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最好一英里显得异常艰难
03:20
Now, that's for oral rehydration therapy.
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口服补液疗法就是如此
03:24
Maybe this is something unique about diarrhea.
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也许痢疾只是一个特例
03:26
Well, it turns out -- and this is where things get really disconcerting --
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但事实上 痢疾不是特例
03:28
it's not unique to diarrhea.
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这样问题就变得令人不安了
03:30
It's not even unique to poor people in India.
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甚至印度的穷人也不是特例
03:32
Here's an example from a variety of contexts.
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这是从很多文献中找到的一个例子
03:35
I've put a bunch of examples up here.
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我在这列举了很多例子
03:37
I'll start with insulin, diabetes
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我从美国治疗糖尿病的
03:40
medication in the U.S.
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胰岛素说起
03:42
OK, the American population.
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对美国人来说
03:44
On Medicaid -- if you're fairly poor you get Medicaid,
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如果你很穷或者你有医疗保险
03:46
or if you have health insurance -- insulin is pretty straightforward.
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就能得到医疗补助 胰岛素很好用
03:48
You get it, either in pill form or you get it as an injection;
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可通过药片或注射使用
03:52
you have to take it every day to maintain your blood sugar levels.
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每天都要服用 以保持血糖水平
03:54
Massive technological advance:
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这是巨大的技术进步
03:56
took an incredibly deadly disease, made it solvable.
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让致命的疾病变得可治愈
03:58
Adherence rates. How many people are taking their insulin every day?
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看看相关的数据 每天有多少人服用胰岛素?
04:01
About on average, a typical person is taking it 75 percent of the time.
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平均每人服用的概率是75%
04:05
As a result, 25,000 people a year go blind,
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结果就是 每年有2万5千人失明
04:10
hundreds of thousands lose limbs, every year,
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数十万人截肢
04:12
for something that's solvable.
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而这个病是可治愈的
04:14
Here I have a bunch of other examples,
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我还能举很多其他的例子
04:16
all suffer from the last mile problem.
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他们都存在最后一英里的问题
04:18
It's not just medicine.
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不仅仅在医学上
04:20
Here's another example from technology:
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这是另一个来自于技术革新的例子
04:22
agriculture. We think
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农业 我们认为
04:24
there's a food problem, so we create new seeds.
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存在食物问题 所以发明了新型的种子
04:26
We think there's an income problem, so we create
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我们认为存在产量的问题 因此创造了
04:28
new ways of farming that increase income.
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增加产量的新方法
04:31
Well, look at some old ways, some ways that we'd already cracked.
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我们来看看那些已经实现的老方法
04:34
Intercropping. Intercropping really increases income.
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间作 间作确实能增加产量
04:36
Sometimes in rice we found incredible increases in yield
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有时 通过混合不同种类的水稻
04:39
when you mix different varieties of rice side by side.
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可以得到惊人的常量
04:41
Some people are doing that,
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有些人这么做了
04:43
many are not. What's going on?
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有些人没有 为什么会这样?
04:45
This is the last mile.
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这就是最后一英里
04:47
The last mile is, everywhere, problematic.
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最后一英里的问题 无处不在 难以攻克
04:49
Alright, what's the problem?
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问题出在哪?
04:51
The problem is this little three-pound machine
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问题就处在这个3磅重的小机器上
04:54
that's behind your eyes and between your ears.
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它位于你的眼后 两耳之间
04:58
This machine is really strange,
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这台机器很奇怪
05:00
and one of the consequences is that people are weird.
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结果是 人类也很奇怪
05:04
They do lots of inconsistent things.
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做了很多自相矛盾的事
05:08
(Applause)
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(鼓掌)
05:10
They do lots of inconsistent things.
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人做了很多自相矛盾的事
05:13
And the inconsistencies
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这些自相矛盾
05:15
create, fundamentally, this last mile problem.
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从根本上导致了最后一英里问题
05:18
See, when we were dealing with our biology, bacteria,
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当我们面对生物 细菌
05:21
the genes, the things inside here, the blood?
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基因 内脏 血液这些的时候
05:24
That's complex, but it's manageable.
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尽管很复杂 但却是可控的
05:27
When we're dealing with people like this?
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当我们面对人的问题的时候
05:30
The mind is more complex.
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就变得更为复杂了
05:32
That's not as manageable, and that's what we're struggling with.
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事情就不好控制了 这就是我们在挣扎的问题
05:34
Let me go back to diarrhea for a second.
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我们再回到痢疾的问题上
05:37
Here's a question that was asked in the National Sample Survey,
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这是全国抽样调查组织
05:40
which is a survey asked of many Indian women:
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向很多印度女性问的一个问题
05:42
"Your child has diarrhea.
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"如果小孩得了痢疾
05:44
Should you increase, maintain or decrease the number of fluids?"
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应该增加 保持还是减少液体摄入?"
05:47
Just so you don't embarrass yourselves, I'll give you the right answer:
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为了不让你们难堪 我直接告诉你们答案
05:50
It's increase.
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是增加
05:54
Now, diarrhea's interesting
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痢疾很有意思
05:55
because it's been around for thousands of years,
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它已经存在了几千年
05:57
ever since humankind really
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自从人类聚居
06:00
lived side by side enough to have really polluted water.
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开始产生废水以来就有了
06:03
One Roman strategy that was very interesting
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罗马人有个对付痢疾的办法很有意思
06:05
was that -- and it really gave them a comparative advantage --
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这让他们取得了比较优势
06:07
they made sure their soldiers didn't drink
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他们连轻微浑浊的水
06:10
even remotely muddied waters.
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都不让士兵们饮用
06:12
Because if some of your troops get diarrhea they're not that effective
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因为如果有士兵得了立即
06:15
on the battlefield.
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就会削弱战斗力
06:17
So, if you think of Roman comparative advantage part of it was the breast shields,
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大家以为罗马军队的优势在于护甲
06:19
the breastplates, but part of it was drinking the right water.
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但其实正确饮水也是优势之一
06:23
So, here are these women. They've seen their parents
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所以这些妇女们见过父母
06:25
have struggled with diarrhea, they've struggled with diarrhea,
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为痢疾所困扰 自己也患过痢疾
06:27
they've seen lots of deaths. How do they answer this question?
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还见过很多死亡病例 她们会如何回答呢?
06:30
In India, 35 to 50 percent say "Reduce."
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在印度 35%到50%的人回答 "减少"
06:34
Think about what that means for a second.
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想一下这意味着什么
06:36
Thirty-five to 50 percent of women
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35%到50%的妇女
06:38
forget oral rehydration therapy,
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忽略了口服补液疗法
06:40
they are increasing --
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她们在增加...
06:42
they are actually making their child
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她们这么做其实是在
06:45
more likely to die through their actions.
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增加孩子的死亡率
06:48
How is that possible?
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怎么会这样呢?
06:50
Well, one possibility -- I think that's how most people respond to this --
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一种可能是 我想大部分人会这样回答
06:53
is to say, "That's just stupid."
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"真愚蠢"
06:57
I don't think that's stupid.
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我觉得这不是愚蠢
06:59
I think there is something very profoundly right in what these women are doing.
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我认为这些妇女在某种程度上做的是对的
07:02
And that is, you don't put water
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也就是 不把水倒在
07:04
into a leaky bucket.
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漏的水桶里
07:06
So, think of the mental model that goes behind reducing the intake.
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这个思维模型就是减少输入
07:10
Just doesn't make sense.
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只是听上去不太合理
07:12
Now, the model is intuitively right.
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这个模型本来是正确的
07:15
It just doesn't happen to be right about the world.
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但是应用到实际当中就发生了错误
07:19
But it makes a whole lot of sense at some deep level.
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但是从深层次上来讲 是有道理的
07:22
And that, to me, is the fundamental challenge
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这对我来说 就是那个最基本的
07:25
of the last mile.
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最后一英里的挑战
07:30
This first challenge is what I refer to as the persuasion challenge.
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第一个挑战我称之为 说服
07:33
Convincing people to do something --
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劝说别人去做某件事
07:35
take oral rehydration therapy, intercrop, whatever it might be --
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接受口服补液疗法 间作 诸如此类的
07:37
is not an act of information:
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不是说是去提供给人信息
07:40
"Let's give them the data,
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"我们给他们罗列数据吧
07:42
and when they have data they'll do the right thing."
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他们看到数据 就会做正确的事"
07:44
It's more complex than that.
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实际远比这复杂的多
07:46
And if you want to understand how it's more complex
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为了让你们理解为什么会显得更复杂
07:48
let me start with something kind of interesting.
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我们先来做一个有意思的测验
07:52
I'm going to give you a little math problem,
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我会给你们一道简单的数学题
07:54
and I want you to just yell out the answer as fast as possible.
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需要你们尽可能快的给出答案
07:57
A bat and a ball together cost $1.10.
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一个球拍和一个球总计1.1美元
07:59
The bat costs a dollar more than the ball.
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球拍比球多花1美元
08:02
How much does the ball cost? Quick.
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那么一个球要花多少钱? 要快
08:05
So, somebody out there says, "Five."
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那边有人说5美分
08:07
A lot of you said, "Ten."
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不少人说10美分
08:09
Let's think about 10 for a second.
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先来考虑下10这个答案
08:12
If the ball costs 10, the bat costs...
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如果球是10美分 球拍要花...
08:16
this is easy, $1.10.
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很简单 1.1美元
08:18
Yeah. So, together they would cost $1.20.
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所以总共要花1.2美元
08:21
So, here you all are, ostensibly educated people.
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你们都明显是受过教育的人
08:24
Most of you look smart.
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很多看起来很聪明
08:27
The combination of that produces
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这几点加起来
08:30
something that is actually, you got this thing wrong.
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反而让你们得出错误的答案
08:32
How is that possible? Let's go to something else.
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怎么会这样? 再看看其他的
08:35
I know algebra can be complicated.
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我知道代数很复杂
08:38
So, let's dial this back. That's what? Fifth grade? Fourth grade?
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所以让我们回到...5年级? 4年级?
08:41
Let's go back to kindergarten. OK?
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我们回到幼儿园 好不好?
08:44
There's a great show on American television that you have to watch.
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美国有个很赞的电视节目不得不看
08:46
It's called "Are You Smarter Than a Fifth Grader?"
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叫做"你比小学5年级的聪明吗?"
08:48
I think we've learned the answer to that here.
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我想我们刚才已经有了答案
08:51
Let's move to kindergarten. Let's see if we can beat five-year-olds.
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我们回到幼儿园水平 看看能否打败5岁孩子
08:54
Here's what I'm going to do: I'm going to put objects on the screen.
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接下来 我会在屏幕上显示一些物体
08:57
I just want you to name the color of the object.
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我要你们念出这些物体的颜色
09:01
That's all it is. OK?
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就这么简单 明白了吗?
09:03
I want you to do it fast, and say it out loud with me,
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你们要说得快 大声的念出来
09:06
and do it quickly. I'll make the first one easy for you.
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要说得快 第一个会比较简单
09:08
Ready? Black.
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追备好了吗? 黑色
09:10
Now the next ones I want you to do quickly and say it out loud.
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接下去 我要你们又快又大声的说出来
09:12
Ready? Go.
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准备好了吗? 开始
09:14
Audience: Red. Green.
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观众: 红 绿
09:16
Yellow. Blue. Red.
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黄 蓝 红
09:18
(Laughter)
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(笑)
09:21
Sendhil Mullainathan: That's pretty good.
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森德希尔 穆拉伊特丹: 很好
09:25
Almost out of kindergarten.
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几乎可以幼儿园毕业了
09:27
What is all this telling us?
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这又告诉我们什么呢?
09:29
You see, what's going on here, and in the bat and ball problem
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刚才的例子以及球拍和球的例子告诉我们
09:32
is that you have some intuitive ways of interacting with the world,
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我们通过直觉认识世界
09:35
some models that you use to understand the world.
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通过某些方式了解世界
09:37
These models, like the leaky bucket,
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这些方法 像漏桶原理那样
09:39
work well in most situations.
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在多数情况下都行得通
09:41
I suspect most of you --
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我猜你们中的大多数
09:43
I hope that's true for the rest of you --
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我希望在座的都是这样
09:45
actually do pretty well with addition and subtraction in the real world.
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对实际中的加减法都很熟练
09:49
I found a problem, a specific problem
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我发现一个问题 一个特别的问题
09:51
that actually found an error with that.
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造成了这种漏洞
09:54
Diarrhea, and many last mile problems, are like that.
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腹泻和很多最后一英里问题一样
09:56
They are situations where the mental model
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使那些思维方式
09:58
doesn't match the reality.
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与实际情况不吻合
10:00
Same thing here:
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刚才也是如此
10:02
You had an intuitive response to this that was very quick.
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你们很快的用直觉做出了反应
10:04
You read "blue" and you wanted to say "blue," even though you knew your task was red.
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你们读到蓝 就说蓝色 尽管你们应该说红色
10:07
Now, I do this stuff because it's fun.
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我做这个实验 是因为这很有趣
10:09
But it's more profound than fun.
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但这不仅仅在于它是有趣的
10:13
I'll give you a good example of how it actually effects persuasion.
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关于说服力 我给大家举个很好的例子
10:16
BMW is a pretty safe car.
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宝马是安全性很高的车
10:19
And they are trying to figure out, "Safety is good.
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他们在想 "安全性是卖点
10:21
I want to advertise safety. How am I going to advertise safety?"
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我要宣传这个卖点 应该怎么宣传呢?"
10:23
"I could give people numbers. We do well on crash tests."
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"可以给出数据 说我们的撞击测试性能很好"
10:26
But the truth of the matter is, you look at that car,
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但事实是 当你注视着辆车的时候
10:28
it doesn't look like a Volvo,
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他不像沃尔沃
10:30
and it doesn't look like a Hummer.
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也不想悍马
10:32
So, what I want you to think about for a few minutes
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我想让你们思考几分钟
10:34
is: How would you convey safety of the BMW? Okay?
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如果是你 怎么宣传宝马的安全性? 好吗?
10:37
So now, while you're thinking about that let's move to a second task.
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你们边思考边看第二个任务
10:40
The second task is fuel efficiency. Okay?
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第二个任务就是省油
10:43
Here's another puzzle for all of you.
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再给你们出道题
10:45
One person walks into a car lot,
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有个人走进车场
10:47
and they're thinking about buying this Toyota Yaris.
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他想买辆丰田的飞度
10:50
They are saying, "This is 35 miles per gallon. I'm going to do
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他说 "这车每加仑能跑35英里
10:52
the environmentally right thing, I'm going to buy the Prius,
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我要环保的 我想买普锐斯
10:54
50 miles per gallon."
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每加仑能跑50英里"
10:56
Another person walks into the lot,
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另一个人走进车场
10:58
and they're about to buy a Hummer, nine miles per gallon,
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想买悍马 每加仑跑9英里
11:00
fully loaded, luxury.
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厚实 奢华
11:02
And they say, "You know what? Do I need turbo? Do I need this heavyweight car?"
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他说道 "我真的需要涡轮增压器吗?需要那么重的车吗?
11:06
I'm going to do something good for the environment.
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我要做对环境有益的事
11:08
I'm going to take off some of that weight,
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我要减掉那部分重量
11:10
and I'm going to buy a Hummer that's 11 miles per gallon."
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我要买辆每加仑能跑11英里的悍马"
11:13
Which one of these people has done more for the environment?
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哪个人对环境的贡献更大呢?
11:16
See, you have a mental model.
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在大家的思维方式中
11:18
Fifty versus 35, that's a big move. Eleven versus nine? Come on.
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50到35是很大的差距 11到9呢? 不会吧
11:21
Turns out, go home and do the math,
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但如果用心计算一下的话
11:24
the nine to 11 is a bigger change. That person has saved more gallons.
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9到11的提升贡献更大 那人能省更多的油
11:27
Why? Because we don't care about miles per gallon, we care about
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为什么? 因为我们不在乎每加仑的里程
11:29
gallons per mile.
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我们在乎每英里的耗油
11:31
Think about how powerful that is if you're trying to encourage fuel efficiency.
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想想看 这在鼓励节油方面会有什么影响
11:34
Miles per gallon is the way we present things.
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我们习惯用每加仑的里程来阐述
11:36
If we want to encourage change of behavior,
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如果想要改变消费者行为
11:39
gallons per mile would have far more effectiveness.
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每英里耗油会有效的多
11:41
Researchers have found these type of anomalies.
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研究人员发现了很多相似的情形
11:44
Okay, back to BMW. What should they do?
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再回到宝马 他们该怎么做?
11:47
The problem BMW faces is this car looks safe.
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宝马面临的问题是 这车看上去很安全
11:50
This car, which is my Mini, doesn't look that safe.
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而这辆车 Mini Cooper 就没那么安全了
11:54
Here was BMW's brilliant insight, which they embodied into an ad campaign.
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宝马把下面这个绝妙的想法融入到广告宣传中
11:57
They showed a BMW driving down the street.
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一辆宝马在街道中行驶
11:59
There's a truck on the right. Boxes fall out of the truck.
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右边有辆火车 车上的箱子掉了下来
12:02
The car swerves to avoid it, and therefore doesn't get into an accident.
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宝马车迅速躲避 避免了车祸
12:07
BWM realizes safety, in people's minds, has two components.
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宝马意识到 对消费者而言 安全性有两方面
12:11
You can be safe because when you're hit, you survive,
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撞击时幸免于难可以说是安全的
12:15
or you can be safe because you avoid accidents.
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躲避事故也可以称之为安全
12:17
Remarkably successful campaign, but notice the power of it.
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相当成功的宣传 但请关注其中的深意
12:19
It harnesses something you already believe.
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它顺应了你们已有的观念
12:22
Now, even if I persuaded you to do something,
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即使我说服你去做某件事
12:26
it's hard sometimes to actually get action as a result.
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你最后也未必会付诸行动
12:30
You all probably intended to wake up,
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你们可能都想在差不多6点半
12:32
I don't know, 6:30, 7 a.m.
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或者7点起床
12:35
This is a battle we all fight every day,
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这是我们每天面临的战斗
12:37
along with trying to get to the gym.
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去健身房锻炼也是一样
12:40
Now, this is an example of that battle,
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这就是和睡眠挣扎的例子
12:43
and makes us realize intentions don't always translate into action,
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它告诉我们 愿望不应定能付诸行动
12:46
and so one of the fundamental challenges
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所以其中的一个本质性问题就是
12:48
is how we would actually do that. OK?
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我们怎样才会付诸行动
12:52
So, let me now talk about the last mile problem.
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我现在来谈谈最后一英里的问题
12:55
So far, I've been pretty negative.
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到现在为止 我都很消极
12:58
I've been trying to show you the oddities of human behavior.
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我一直向你们传递人类行为的丑恶面
13:01
And I think maybe I'm being too negative.
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我在想也许是我太消极了
13:03
Maybe it's the diarrhea.
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也许痢疾本来就难防
13:05
Maybe the last mile problem really should be thought of
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也许最后一英里的问题应该称为
13:07
as the last mile opportunity.
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最后一英里的机遇
13:09
Let's go back to diabetes.
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我们再回到糖尿病上
13:11
This is a typical insulin injection.
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这是典型的胰岛素注射剂
13:14
Now, carrying this thing around is complicated.
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带着这些外出挺麻烦的
13:17
You gotta carry the bottle, you gotta carry the syringe.
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既要带着瓶子 有要带注射器
13:21
It's also painful.
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还很痛
13:23
Now, you may think to yourself, "Well, if my eyes depended on it,
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你可能会想 "如果我的眼睛靠它了
13:27
you know, I would obviously use it every day."
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我当然会坚持每天注射"
13:29
But the pain, the discomfort,
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但考虑下这种疼痛 这种不便
13:31
you know, paying attention, remembering to put it in your purse
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长途旅行的时候 还要记着
13:33
when you go on a long trip:
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放在包包里
13:35
These are the day-to-day of life, and they do pose problems.
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这些确实为日常生活带来了问题
13:39
Here is an innovation, a design innovation.
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这是一个创新 设计山的创新
13:42
This is a pen, it's called an insulin pen, preloaded.
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它是一支笔 叫做胰岛素笔针 预载的
13:46
The needle is particularly sharp.
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针头特别尖锐
13:47
You just gotta carry this thing around.
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带着这个外出
13:49
It's much easier to use, much less painful.
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既方便 有减少了痛苦
13:51
Anywhere between five and 10 percent increase in adherence,
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多付出5%到10%的努力
13:55
just as a result of this.
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就能取得这样的成果
13:57
That's what I'm talking about as a last mile opportunity.
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这就是我想说的最后一英里的机遇
14:00
You see, we tend to think the problem is solved
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我们以为解决了技术上的难题
14:03
when we solve the technology problem.
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就算是解决了问题
14:05
But the human innovation, the human problem
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但是问题却仍然存在
14:07
still remains, and that's a great frontier that we have left.
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这就是在技术创新后遇到的问题
14:11
This isn't about the biology of people;
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现在的问题不在于生理层面
14:13
this is now about the brains, the psychology of people,
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而在于人的意识 人的心理层面
14:17
and innovation needs to continue all the way through
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创新应该有始有终
14:19
the last mile.
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直到最后一英里
14:21
Here's another example of this.
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这是另一个例子
14:23
This is from a company called Positive Energy.
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这是积极能源公司的资料
14:26
This is about energy efficiency.
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讲的是节能这件事
14:28
We're spending a lot of time on fuel cells right now.
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我们现在在做很多能量电池的研究
14:31
What this company does is they send a letter
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这家公司的所做的就是把信寄到各家各户
14:33
to households that say, "Here's your energy use,
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告诉他们 "这是你的能源利用状况
14:35
here's your neighbor's energy use: You're doing well." Smiley face.
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这是你邻居的能源使用状况 你做的很好" 加个笑脸
14:38
"You're doing worse." Frown.
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"你做的不太好" 加个苦脸
14:40
And what they find is just this letter, nothing else,
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他们发现单单靠这封信就可以
14:43
has a two to three percent reduction in electricity use.
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减少2%到3%的能源使用
14:45
And you want to think about the social value of that
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从这件事情的社会影响来看
14:47
in terms of carbon offsets, reduced electricity,
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如果计算减排的二氧化碳和节省的电能
14:49
900 million dollars per year.
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每年能省下9亿美元
14:51
Why? Because for free,
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为什么? 因为是免费的
14:53
this isn't a new technology, this is a letter --
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这不是一项新技术 这只是一封信
14:55
we're getting a Big Bang in behavior.
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却对我们的行为产生了惊天动地的影响
14:57
So, how do we tackle the last mile?
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我们如何突破这最后一英里呢?
15:01
I think this tells us there is an opportunity.
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我想有很多机会等着我们
15:04
And I think to tackle it, we need to combine
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要想实现突破 我们需要将
15:06
psychology,
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心理学
15:08
marketing,
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市场营销
15:10
art, we've seen that.
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艺术综合起来 我们刚才已经看到了
15:12
But you know what we need to combine it with?
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但我们还需要把什么加进来呢?
15:14
We need to combine this with the scientific method.
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我们要把科学方法加进来
15:16
See what's really puzzling and frustrating about the last mile, to me,
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最后一英里之所以让我感到迷惑和沮丧
15:20
is that the first 999 miles are all about science.
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是因为开始的999英里都是关于科学
15:23
No one would say, "Hey, I think this medicine works, go ahead and use it."
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没人会说 "我认为这种药没问题 尽管去用吧"
15:27
We have testing, we go to the lab, we try it again, we have refinement.
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我们测试 然后在研究 再测试 然后改进
15:29
But you know what we do on the last mile?
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但看看我们在最后一英里做了什么?
15:32
"Oh, this is a good idea. People will like this. Let's put it out there."
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"这是个好主意 大家会喜欢的 拿出去卖吧"
15:35
The amount of resources we put in are disparate.
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我们对两者的重视度是迥异的
15:37
We put billions of dollars into fuel-efficient technologies.
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我们在节能技术上花了大把大把的钱
15:40
How much are we putting into
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而通过可靠的 系统的测试办法
15:42
energy behavior change
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改变人们的节能行为
15:44
in a credible, systematic, testing way?
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又花了多少钱?
15:47
Now, I think that we're on the verge of something big.
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我认为 有个重大变革正在向我们走来
15:50
We're on the verge of a whole new social science.
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我们将迎来一个崭新的社会科学
15:53
It's a social science that recognizes --
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这种社会科学的认识过程
15:55
much like science recognizes the complexity of the body,
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正像科学认识人体的复杂性
15:58
biology recognizes the complexity of the body -- we'll recognize
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生物学认识人体的复杂性那样 我们会认识到
16:00
the complexity of the human mind.
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人类思维方式的复杂性
16:02
The careful testing, retesting, design,
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通过认真的测试 再测试 设计
16:04
are going to open up vistas of understanding,
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我们会开启认识复杂事物
16:07
complexities, difficult things.
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解决难题的大门
16:09
And those vistas will both create new science,
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这扇大门将会在接下去的百年中
16:12
and fundamental change in the world as we see it, in the next hundred years.
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促成新科学的诞生 彻底的改变我们所在的世界
16:16
All right. Thank you very much.
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这就是我的演讲 谢谢
16:18
(Applause)
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(鼓掌)
16:20
Chris Anderson: Sendhil, thank you so much.
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森德希尔,感谢你的演讲
16:22
So, this whole area is so fascinating.
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行为经济学是一个相当迷人的领域
16:25
I mean, it sometimes feels, listening to behavioral economists
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我有时感觉 行为经济学
16:28
that they are kind of putting into place
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就是把某些杰出的营销员
16:31
academically, what great marketers
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长久以来就拥有的直觉
16:33
have sort of intuitively known for a long time.
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加以理论化
16:36
How much is your field talking to great marketers
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你们的这一领域是如何看待杰出营销员
16:40
about their insights into human psychology?
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对人类心理学的洞察的?
16:42
Because they've seen it on the ground.
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因为他们是在实际中观察的
16:44
Sendhil Mullainathan: Yeah, we spend a lot of time talking to marketers,
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我们和营销员有很多交流
16:46
and I think 60 percent of it is exactly what you say,
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60%的人跟你说的那样
16:49
there are insights to be gleaned there.
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他们有很多观点值得我们什么深思
16:51
Forty percent of it is about what marketing is.
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40%的人想的是营销是什么
16:53
Marketing is selling an ad to a firm.
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营销就是向公司卖广告
16:58
So, in some sense, a lot of marketing is about
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某种程度上来说 很多营销就是
17:00
convincing a CEO, "This is a good ad campaign."
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说服CEO这是个营销方案的有效性
17:03
So, there is a little bit of slippage there.
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所以这有些蹊跷
17:05
That's just a caveat. That's different from actually having an effective ad campaign.
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这还只是做到一半 跟真正的有效的营销方案还有一定的距离
17:09
And one of the new movements in marketing is: How do we actually
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营销里面的一个新的课题就是 如何真正的
17:11
measure effectiveness? Are we effective?
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评估有效性? 真的是有效的吗?
17:13
CA: How you take your insights here
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你如何说服他们
17:17
and actually get them integrated
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将你的观点运用到
17:20
into working business models on the ground,
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实际当中
17:23
in Indian villages, for example?
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以印度农村为例
17:25
SM: So, the scientific method I alluded to is pretty important.
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我提到的科学方法很重要
17:28
We work closely with companies that have operational capacity,
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我们和那些有实力的公司
17:30
or nonprofits that have operational capacity.
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以及有实力的非营利性组织紧密合作
17:32
And then we say, "Well, you want to get this behavior change.
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我们跟他们说 你要是想改变某种行为
17:34
Let's come up with a few ideas, test them,
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就先想出几个方案 进行测试
17:37
see which is working, go back, synthesize,
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看看哪些可行 再回头综合一下
17:39
and try to come up with a thing that works,"
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想想还有没有其他的点子
17:41
and then we're able to scale with partners.
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再将这些想法和合作商的实力匹配
17:43
It's kind of the model that has worked in other contexts.
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这根其他方面的工作类似
17:45
If you have biological problems
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如果你想解决一个生物学问题
17:47
we try and fix it, see if it works, and then work the scale.
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先试着解决 如果可行 就扩大规模
17:49
CA: Alright Sendhil, thanks so much for coming to TED. Thank you.
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好的 森德希尔 感谢你来到TED 谢谢
17:52
(Applause)
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(鼓掌)
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