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譯者: Marie Wu
審譯者: Wang-Ju Tsai
00:15
As a researcher, every once in a while
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身為一個研究人員,
00:18
you encounter something
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每過一陣子,總是會遇到
00:20
a little disconcerting.
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一些令人驚訝的事,
00:22
And this is something that changes your understanding of the world around you,
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這些事會改變你對週遭世界的認知,
00:25
and teaches you that you're very wrong
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讓你瞭解你以往所深信的某些事,
00:27
about something that you really believed firmly in.
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其實是大錯特錯。
00:31
And these are unfortunate moments,
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我認為遇到這種事其實不好過,
00:34
because you go to sleep that night
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因為你會覺得自己
00:36
dumber than when you woke up.
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比前一天又笨了一點。
00:39
So, that's really the goal of my talk,
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這就是我今天演說的目的,
00:41
is to A, communicate that moment to you
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第一,和你們談談那些不好過的經驗,
00:43
and B, have you leave this session
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第二,希望你們在離開會場時,
00:45
a little dumber than when you entered.
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會變得比之前更笨一點。
00:47
So, I hope I can really accomplish that.
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我希望我能達成這二個目標。
00:50
So, this incident that I'm going to describe
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我要談的這件事,
00:53
really began with some diarrhea.
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其實可以從痢疾談起。
00:56
Now, we've known for a long time the cause of diarrhea.
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我們早就知道痢疾是怎麼引起的,
00:59
That's why there's a glass of water up there.
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所以我放了一張一杯水的投影片在上面。
01:02
For us, it's a problem, the people in this room.
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對我們在座的各位來說,那不就只是個健康問題而已,
01:04
For babies, it's deadly.
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但是對小嬰兒來說,卻有可能致命,
01:07
They lack nutrients, and diarrhea dehydrates them.
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因為他們吸收不到養份,痢疾還會使他們脫水,
01:11
And so, as a result, there is a lot of death,
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因此造成了極高的死亡率,
01:13
a lot of death.
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很多嬰兒死亡。
01:16
In India in 1960,
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在1960代的印度,
01:18
there was a 24 percent child mortality rate,
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孩童的死亡率是24%,
01:20
lots of people didn't make it. This is incredibly unfortunate.
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很多小孩熬不過去,真的很不幸!
01:24
One of the big reasons this happened was
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死亡率居高不下的主要原因,
01:26
because of diarrhea.
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就是痢疾。
01:28
Now, there was a big effort to solve this problem,
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現在,有很多人致力於改善這個問題,
01:31
and there was actually a big solution.
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也有很有效的解決方法,
01:35
This solution has been called, by some,
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有人稱這個方法為:
01:37
"potentially the most important medical
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「有可能是本世紀最重要的
01:39
advance this century."
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醫學突破」。
01:42
Now, the solution turned out to be simple.
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這個方法出奇地簡單,
01:45
And what it was was oral rehydration salts.
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就是使用口服補液鹽,
01:49
Many of you have probably used this.
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在座各位可能有使用過,
01:51
It's brilliant. It's a way to get sodium
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那真是一個好方法!裡面混合了
01:53
and glucose together so that when you add it to water
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鈉與葡萄糖,所以當我們摻入水中,
01:56
the child is able to absorb it even during situations of diarrhea.
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孩子們即使感染了痢疾,還是能夠吸收到這些養份。
01:59
Remarkable impact on mortality.
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這大幅降低了孩童死亡率,
02:03
Massive solution to the problem.
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並大幅改善了這個問題。
02:05
Flash forward: 1960, 24 percent child mortality
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讓我們看看,1960年代有24%的孩童死亡率,
02:08
has dropped to 6.5 percent today.
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現在已經降到了6.5%了,
02:10
Still a big number, but a big drop.
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雖然比率還是很高,但已經下降了許多。
02:13
It looks like the technological problem is solved.
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看起來這個問題的技術面已經克服了,
02:16
But if you look, even today
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但是,如果我們看看今天的狀況,
02:18
there are about 400,000 diarrhea-related deaths
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在印度,仍然有40萬人死於
02:20
in India alone.
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痢疾相關的疾病,
02:22
What's going on here?
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究竟是怎麼回事?
02:24
Well the easy answer is, we just haven't gotten those salts
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不用想也知道,就是我們沒有提供那些鹽
02:27
to those people.
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給需要的人啊...
02:29
That's actually not true.
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這個想法不對,
02:31
If you look in areas where these salts are completely available,
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如果你仔細觀察,你會發現這種鹽到處都買得到,
02:34
the price is low or zero, these deaths still continue abated.
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價格也很低,甚至不用錢,但是死亡率還是很高。
02:37
Maybe there's a biological answer.
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或許是生物學上的問題吧?
02:39
Maybe these are the deaths that simple rehydration
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或許他們純粹是因為脫水
02:41
alone doesn't solve. That's not true either.
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而沒有辦法醫治好?這也不對。
02:44
Many of these deaths were completely preventable,
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大部分痢疾患者的死亡都是可以避免的,
02:49
and this what I want to think of as the disconcerting thing,
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這就是我所說的令人驚訝的事,
02:52
what I want to call "the last mile" problem.
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也就是我稱之為「最後一哩」的問題。
02:54
See, we spent a lot of energy, in many domains --
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我們在不同的領域裡都投注了相當多的精力,
02:58
technological, scientific, hard work,
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不管是科技、科學、勞動、
03:00
creativity, human ingenuity --
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創造或工藝等,
03:02
to crack important social problems with technology solutions.
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我們都運用了科技來解決這些重要的社會問題。
03:06
That's been the discoveries of the last 2,000 years,
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我們近二千年來都是這麼做,
03:08
that's mankind moving forward.
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是人性推動著我們往前邁進。
03:10
But in this case we cracked it,
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但我們在處理痢疾這個問題時,
03:13
but a big part of the problem still remains.
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卻仍有一大部分的問題沒有解決;
03:15
Nine hundred and ninety-nine miles went well,
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前面那999哩路我們都走得很順暢,
03:17
the last mile's proving incredibly stubborn.
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但最後那一哩路卻顯得異常艱難。
03:20
Now, that's for oral rehydration therapy.
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我們運用口服補液療法來治療痢疾,
03:24
Maybe this is something unique about diarrhea.
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但或許這種痢疾特別難治,
03:26
Well, it turns out -- and this is where things get really disconcerting --
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可是我們發現了驚人的事實,
03:28
it's not unique to diarrhea.
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這種痢疾並不算特別,
03:30
It's not even unique to poor people in India.
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在印度的窮人間算是很普遍的。
03:32
Here's an example from a variety of contexts.
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我要舉一個綜合了多種元素的例子,
03:35
I've put a bunch of examples up here.
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我會把各種例子都放在上面,
03:37
I'll start with insulin, diabetes
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就先從美國治療
03:40
medication in the U.S.
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糖尿病的胰島素開始談起吧。
03:42
OK, the American population.
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好,先談美國的人口結構,
03:44
On Medicaid -- if you're fairly poor you get Medicaid,
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如果你是個很窮的美國人,你可以靠醫療補助取得胰島素,
03:46
or if you have health insurance -- insulin is pretty straightforward.
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或如果你有醫療保險的話,你也可以輕易得到胰島素治療,
03:48
You get it, either in pill form or you get it as an injection;
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不管是服用胰島素藥劑或是針劑注射都可以,
03:52
you have to take it every day to maintain your blood sugar levels.
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你必須每天服用或注射,以維持血糖的水準。
03:54
Massive technological advance:
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我們在這上面運用了大量先進的科技,
03:56
took an incredibly deadly disease, made it solvable.
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讓這種致死率極高的病症獲得控制。
03:58
Adherence rates. How many people are taking their insulin every day?
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我們來看看持續率,有多少人每天都服用或注射胰島素?
04:01
About on average, a typical person is taking it 75 percent of the time.
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平均來說,每個人大約都只有75%的時間會依照指示用藥,
04:05
As a result, 25,000 people a year go blind,
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因此,每年都有2萬5千人因此而失明,
04:10
hundreds of thousands lose limbs, every year,
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每年都有數十萬人因此截肢,
04:12
for something that's solvable.
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糖尿病並非無藥可醫啊...
04:14
Here I have a bunch of other examples,
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我還有一大堆這種例子,
04:16
all suffer from the last mile problem.
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都是無法堅持到最後一哩才產生問題,
04:18
It's not just medicine.
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不只是醫療方面的問題,
04:20
Here's another example from technology:
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這裡還有其他科技上的問題,
04:22
agriculture. We think
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像是農業。
04:24
there's a food problem, so we create new seeds.
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我們以為會有糧食危機,所以我們製造出新品種的種子;
04:26
We think there's an income problem, so we create
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我們以為農人的收入會是問題,
04:28
new ways of farming that increase income.
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所以我們開發新的農耕技術以提升收入。
04:31
Well, look at some old ways, some ways that we'd already cracked.
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嗯,我們來看看以前的老方法,那些我們已經實行多年的老方法,
04:34
Intercropping. Intercropping really increases income.
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例如交叉耕作。交叉耕作確實能增加農民的收入,
04:36
Sometimes in rice we found incredible increases in yield
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在耕作稻米時,有時我們會發現,當你將不同品種的稻米
04:39
when you mix different varieties of rice side by side.
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一排一排地交叉耕作時,其產量會出奇地高。
04:41
Some people are doing that,
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有些人會這樣做,
04:43
many are not. What's going on?
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但大部分的人不採用這種方法,為什麼?
04:45
This is the last mile.
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這就是最後一哩的問題,
04:47
The last mile is, everywhere, problematic.
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每一個例子的問題都出在最後一哩,
04:49
Alright, what's the problem?
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那麼,究竟最後一哩的問題是什麼?
04:51
The problem is this little three-pound machine
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問題出在這個重約1.5公斤、
04:54
that's behind your eyes and between your ears.
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躲在你眼睛後面、夾在你耳朵中間的玩意兒,
04:58
This machine is really strange,
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這玩意兒真的很奇怪,
05:00
and one of the consequences is that people are weird.
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所以讓人們的行為也變得很怪異,
05:04
They do lots of inconsistent things.
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人們會做出一堆前後不一致的事情出來!
05:08
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
05:10
They do lots of inconsistent things.
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人們就是會做一堆前後不一致的事情!
05:13
And the inconsistencies
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就是這種不一致,
05:15
create, fundamentally, this last mile problem.
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才製造出我們剛才所談的最後一哩的問題。
05:18
See, when we were dealing with our biology, bacteria,
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看看,在我們研究生物學、細菌、
05:21
the genes, the things inside here, the blood?
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基因、這裡面的東西、血液等,
05:24
That's complex, but it's manageable.
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看似很複雜,但我們都還能處理;
05:27
When we're dealing with people like this?
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但是當我們處理這一類人的問題時,
05:30
The mind is more complex.
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人的心智又更複雜,
05:32
That's not as manageable, and that's what we're struggling with.
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並不像先前那些東西容易應付,那就是我們陷入的困境。
05:34
Let me go back to diarrhea for a second.
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我想先回來談一下痢疾,
05:37
Here's a question that was asked in the National Sample Survey,
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國家抽樣調查協會在一項針對印度婦女的調查中,
05:40
which is a survey asked of many Indian women:
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曾問過這樣一個問題,
05:42
"Your child has diarrhea.
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「如果你的孩子得了痢疾,
05:44
Should you increase, maintain or decrease the number of fluids?"
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你該增加/不變/減少孩子攝取的水份量?」
05:47
Just so you don't embarrass yourselves, I'll give you the right answer:
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為了不讓各位難堪,我就直接把答案公布出來,
05:50
It's increase.
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答案是增加。
05:54
Now, diarrhea's interesting
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痢疾很有趣,
05:55
because it's been around for thousands of years,
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它已經存在了幾千年了,
05:57
ever since humankind really
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自從人類開始群居在一起,
06:00
lived side by side enough to have really polluted water.
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群居的密度大到足以污染水源時就開始存在。
06:03
One Roman strategy that was very interesting
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羅馬人對付痢疾很有一套,
06:05
was that -- and it really gave them a comparative advantage --
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這讓羅馬人佔盡了優勢,
06:07
they made sure their soldiers didn't drink
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他們要求士兵不得飲用髒污的水,
06:10
even remotely muddied waters.
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即使在很遠以外的污水也不可以。
06:12
Because if some of your troops get diarrhea they're not that effective
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因為士兵一旦染上了痢疾,就無法在戰場上
06:15
on the battlefield.
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發揮戰鬥力。
06:17
So, if you think of Roman comparative advantage part of it was the breast shields,
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如果你以為羅馬人的優勢是在於他們的盾牌,
06:19
the breastplates, but part of it was drinking the right water.
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在於他們的盔甲,那麼另一個優勢就是他們知道要飲用乾淨的水。
06:23
So, here are these women. They've seen their parents
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好,這些印度婦女早就看過他們的父母
06:25
have struggled with diarrhea, they've struggled with diarrhea,
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與痢疾纏鬥,他們自己也與痢疾纏鬥過,
06:27
they've seen lots of deaths. How do they answer this question?
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他們看過無數人死去,那麼他們的答案是什麼呢?
06:30
In India, 35 to 50 percent say "Reduce."
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有35%到50%的印度婦女的答案是「減少」。
06:34
Think about what that means for a second.
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請你花點時間好好想想這代表了什麼意思,
06:36
Thirty-five to 50 percent of women
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有35%到50%的印度婦女
06:38
forget oral rehydration therapy,
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忘記了有口服補液療法,
06:40
they are increasing --
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他們反而加速...
06:42
they are actually making their child
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他們所採取的行動,反而讓
06:45
more likely to die through their actions.
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孩子們加速死去,
06:48
How is that possible?
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為什麼會這樣?
06:50
Well, one possibility -- I think that's how most people respond to this --
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嗯,我認為大部份的人會想:
06:53
is to say, "That's just stupid."
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「因為他們愚昧無知。」
06:57
I don't think that's stupid.
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我不覺得他們愚昧無知,
06:59
I think there is something very profoundly right in what these women are doing.
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我反而認為這些婦女所做的事,一定有非常正確的理由,
07:02
And that is, you don't put water
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也就是:你不會把水倒進
07:04
into a leaky bucket.
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會漏水的桶子裡吧...
07:06
So, think of the mental model that goes behind reducing the intake.
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想想看他們減少孩子的水份攝取量背後所持的理由,
07:10
Just doesn't make sense.
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儘管不合理,
07:12
Now, the model is intuitively right.
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但在直覺上來說卻是沒有問題的,
07:15
It just doesn't happen to be right about the world.
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只是世界上其他的人並不這麼想,
07:19
But it makes a whole lot of sense at some deep level.
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但你只要再深入想想你就會瞭解他們的想法。
07:22
And that, to me, is the fundamental challenge
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這對我來說,就是最後一哩背後
07:25
of the last mile.
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所代表的艱鉅挑戰。
07:30
This first challenge is what I refer to as the persuasion challenge.
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第一個挑戰,我稱之為說服的挑戰。
07:33
Convincing people to do something --
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要說服別人做一件事,
07:35
take oral rehydration therapy, intercrop, whatever it might be --
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像是採用口服補液療法、交叉耕作等等,
07:37
is not an act of information:
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都不只是告訴他們有這件事而已。
07:40
"Let's give them the data,
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「我們來把資料發送出去,
07:42
and when they have data they'll do the right thing."
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他們拿到資料就會開始做正確的事了。」
07:44
It's more complex than that.
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沒有這麼簡單。
07:46
And if you want to understand how it's more complex
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如果你想要知道為什麼沒有這麼簡單,
07:48
let me start with something kind of interesting.
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就讓我用一些有趣的例子來說明吧。
07:52
I'm going to give you a little math problem,
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我先給你們做一些小小的數學測驗,
07:54
and I want you to just yell out the answer as fast as possible.
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我要你們儘快地將答案大聲說出來。
07:57
A bat and a ball together cost $1.10.
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一支球棒和一顆球加起來是1.1美元,
07:59
The bat costs a dollar more than the ball.
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球棒比球貴1元,
08:02
How much does the ball cost? Quick.
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請問球是多少錢?快點答!
08:05
So, somebody out there says, "Five."
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那邊有人說5美分,
08:07
A lot of you said, "Ten."
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大部分的人說10美分,
08:09
Let's think about 10 for a second.
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我們先來想想10美分這個答案,
08:12
If the ball costs 10, the bat costs...
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如果球是10美分,那球棒是...
08:16
this is easy, $1.10.
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這很簡單嘛...1.1元
08:18
Yeah. So, together they would cost $1.20.
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對吧?所以加起來就是1.2美元。
08:21
So, here you all are, ostensibly educated people.
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在座各位很明顯都是受過教育的人,
08:24
Most of you look smart.
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大部分的人都很聰明,
08:27
The combination of that produces
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受過教育又聰明的人
08:30
something that is actually, you got this thing wrong.
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卻做出這個錯誤的答案,
08:32
How is that possible? Let's go to something else.
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怎麼會這樣?我們來看看其他的問題,
08:35
I know algebra can be complicated.
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我覺得代數太複雜了,
08:38
So, let's dial this back. That's what? Fifth grade? Fourth grade?
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我們往回推一點好了,那要回推到哪裡呢?五年級?還是四年級?
08:41
Let's go back to kindergarten. OK?
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要不乾脆回推到幼稚園好了?
08:44
There's a great show on American television that you have to watch.
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美國有一個很棒的電視節目,你一定得看,
08:46
It's called "Are You Smarter Than a Fifth Grader?"
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節目叫做「你比五年級生聰明嗎?」,
08:48
I think we've learned the answer to that here.
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我們剛剛才證明了你們是不是比五年級生聰明。
08:51
Let's move to kindergarten. Let's see if we can beat five-year-olds.
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那麼我們考些幼稚園的問題好了,看看你們是否能打敗五歲的小孩。
08:54
Here's what I'm going to do: I'm going to put objects on the screen.
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我要做的是,把幾個圖案放在投影片上,
08:57
I just want you to name the color of the object.
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我要請你們把圖案的顏色說出來,
09:01
That's all it is. OK?
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這樣就好了,可以嗎?
09:03
I want you to do it fast, and say it out loud with me,
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我要你們很快地說出顏色,和我一起大聲地說出來,
09:06
and do it quickly. I'll make the first one easy for you.
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而且要很快。第一個先來個簡單的,
09:08
Ready? Black.
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準備好了嗎?黑色。
09:10
Now the next ones I want you to do quickly and say it out loud.
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接下來,我要你們很快地大聲說出顏色,
09:12
Ready? Go.
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可以嗎?開始!
09:14
Audience: Red. Green.
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觀眾:紅色、綠色、
09:16
Yellow. Blue. Red.
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黃色、藍色、紅色。
09:18
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
09:21
Sendhil Mullainathan: That's pretty good.
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山迪:很好!
09:25
Almost out of kindergarten.
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幾乎比幼稚園小朋友還要好了!
09:27
What is all this telling us?
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這件事有什麼意義?
09:29
You see, what's going on here, and in the bat and ball problem
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你們剛才的表現,和剛才回答球棒與球的問題,
09:32
is that you have some intuitive ways of interacting with the world,
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你們都是用直覺來回應這個世界的問題,
09:35
some models that you use to understand the world.
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你所使用的是你以往所瞭解的模式,
09:37
These models, like the leaky bucket,
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這些模式就像印度婦女所想到的漏水的桶子,
09:39
work well in most situations.
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在大部分狀況下都可以應付一般的問題。
09:41
I suspect most of you --
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我相信大部分的人...
09:43
I hope that's true for the rest of you --
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希望其他的人也是一樣,
09:45
actually do pretty well with addition and subtraction in the real world.
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在現實生活裡應該都能做出正確的加法與減法。
09:49
I found a problem, a specific problem
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但我發現了一個特別的問題,
09:51
that actually found an error with that.
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會讓我們犯下錯誤,
09:54
Diarrhea, and many last mile problems, are like that.
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也就是我們在痢疾和其他最後一哩的問題上所犯的錯誤。
09:56
They are situations where the mental model
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我發現,有時候我們的直覺反應
09:58
doesn't match the reality.
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與現實世界並不相符。
10:00
Same thing here:
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剛才也是一樣,
10:02
You had an intuitive response to this that was very quick.
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你們的直覺反應非常迅速,
10:04
You read "blue" and you wanted to say "blue," even though you knew your task was red.
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你看到了用紅色所書寫的「blue(藍色)」,你沒有說出紅色,卻說成了藍色。
10:07
Now, I do this stuff because it's fun.
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我這麼做純粹只是逗你們玩,
10:09
But it's more profound than fun.
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但其背後的意義卻不只好玩而已。
10:13
I'll give you a good example of how it actually effects persuasion.
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我來舉一個例子,讓你們瞭解說服的影響力。
10:16
BMW is a pretty safe car.
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BMW是很安全的車子,
10:19
And they are trying to figure out, "Safety is good.
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他們想要瞭解:「我們的安全性很好啊...
10:21
I want to advertise safety. How am I going to advertise safety?"
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希望大家都能知道我們的安全性,要怎麼在廣告上呈現安全性呢?」
10:23
"I could give people numbers. We do well on crash tests."
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「我們就把數據呈現出來吧!我們在撞擊測試中表現得很好!」
10:26
But the truth of the matter is, you look at that car,
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但事實上,當你看著那台車,
10:28
it doesn't look like a Volvo,
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它就不像Volvo那麼堅固,
10:30
and it doesn't look like a Hummer.
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也不像悍馬車那麼堅固。
10:32
So, what I want you to think about for a few minutes
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我要你們花個幾分鐘想一下,
10:34
is: How would you convey safety of the BMW? Okay?
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要怎麼傳達出BMW的安全性?好嗎?
10:37
So now, while you're thinking about that let's move to a second task.
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好,在你們想的同時,我們來談第二個主題。
10:40
The second task is fuel efficiency. Okay?
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第二個主題是省油,可以嗎?
10:43
Here's another puzzle for all of you.
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我要來出另一道難題了,
10:45
One person walks into a car lot,
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有一個人走進一個賣車場,
10:47
and they're thinking about buying this Toyota Yaris.
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他想要買Toyota Yaris,
10:50
They are saying, "This is 35 miles per gallon. I'm going to do
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他說:「這部車每加崙的油可以跑35哩,
10:52
the environmentally right thing, I'm going to buy the Prius,
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我想要環保一點,就買Prius吧,
10:54
50 miles per gallon."
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一加崙可以跑50哩。」
10:56
Another person walks into the lot,
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另一個人也進來這個賣車場,
10:58
and they're about to buy a Hummer, nine miles per gallon,
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他想要買悍馬車,要全部配件的豪華精裝版,
11:00
fully loaded, luxury.
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每加崙可跑9哩。
11:02
And they say, "You know what? Do I need turbo? Do I need this heavyweight car?"
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然後他說:「嗯,我需要渦輪引擎嗎?我需要這麼重配備的車嗎?
11:06
I'm going to do something good for the environment.
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我想要環保一點,
11:08
I'm going to take off some of that weight,
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把一些配備拿掉,減少重量,
11:10
and I'm going to buy a Hummer that's 11 miles per gallon."
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那麼這台悍馬車就可以每加崙跑11哩了!」
11:13
Which one of these people has done more for the environment?
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誰對環保的貢獻比較大?
11:16
See, you have a mental model.
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看吧!你們的直覺心理又在作用了!
11:18
Fifty versus 35, that's a big move. Eleven versus nine? Come on.
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50對35,進步很多啊!11對9?比不上吧!
11:21
Turns out, go home and do the math,
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但請你回家好好算一下,你會發現,
11:24
the nine to 11 is a bigger change. That person has saved more gallons.
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從9進步到11是多大的進步!那個人省下的油其實比較多耶!
11:27
Why? Because we don't care about miles per gallon, we care about
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為什麼?因為每一加崙跑幾哩並不重要,重要的是每一哩
11:29
gallons per mile.
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需要多少加崙的油!
11:31
Think about how powerful that is if you're trying to encourage fuel efficiency.
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想想看,如果你想提倡省油,這將具有多大的效果!
11:34
Miles per gallon is the way we present things.
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我們目前都是看每一加崙可以跑幾哩,
11:36
If we want to encourage change of behavior,
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如果我們想要鼓勵大眾改變行為模式,
11:39
gallons per mile would have far more effectiveness.
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用每一哩需要多少加崙的油來呈現數據會比較有用。
11:41
Researchers have found these type of anomalies.
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研究人員已經發現有好幾種這類型反常的例子。
11:44
Okay, back to BMW. What should they do?
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好,我們回到BMW,他們應該怎麼做?
11:47
The problem BMW faces is this car looks safe.
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BMW所面對的問題是,這種車看起來很安全,
11:50
This car, which is my Mini, doesn't look that safe.
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而這種車,就是我的Mini,看起來則不怎麼安全。
11:54
Here was BMW's brilliant insight, which they embodied into an ad campaign.
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BMW想到了一個好點子,他們把這個點子用廣告呈現出來:
11:57
They showed a BMW driving down the street.
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一輛BMW行駛在街上,
11:59
There's a truck on the right. Boxes fall out of the truck.
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有一輛卡車在它的右邊,卡車上的箱子突然掉落,
12:02
The car swerves to avoid it, and therefore doesn't get into an accident.
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BMW卻突然轉向避開了那些箱子,才沒有釀成意外。
12:07
BWM realizes safety, in people's minds, has two components.
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BMW發現,人們心中所認定的安全性,具有二個要素,
12:11
You can be safe because when you're hit, you survive,
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第一是在你被撞時你能保有性命,這就叫安全;
12:15
or you can be safe because you avoid accidents.
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第二則是能避開危險,也叫做安全。
12:17
Remarkably successful campaign, but notice the power of it.
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這個廣告非常地成功,注意看看它所造成的影響,
12:19
It harnesses something you already believe.
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它已經改變了你原先的看法。
12:22
Now, even if I persuaded you to do something,
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即使我想說服你去做某件事,
12:26
it's hard sometimes to actually get action as a result.
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但有時就是很難讓你去採取行動。
12:30
You all probably intended to wake up,
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大家可能都很想在早上
12:32
I don't know, 6:30, 7 a.m.
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大概6:30或7:00起床吧,
12:35
This is a battle we all fight every day,
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我們每天早上都為了起床而奮戰,
12:37
along with trying to get to the gym.
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也為了要不要上健身房而奮戰。
12:40
Now, this is an example of that battle,
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這個早起奮戰的例子告訴我們,
12:43
and makes us realize intentions don't always translate into action,
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你想要做的事不一定都會去做,
12:46
and so one of the fundamental challenges
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所以我們面對最基本的挑戰
12:48
is how we would actually do that. OK?
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就是該如何讓我們採取行動,對吧?
12:52
So, let me now talk about the last mile problem.
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好,我們回來談談最後一哩的問題,
12:55
So far, I've been pretty negative.
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到目前為止,我所談的都很負面,
12:58
I've been trying to show you the oddities of human behavior.
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我告訴了各位人類行為中怪異的一面,
13:01
And I think maybe I'm being too negative.
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但我覺得或許自己太悲觀了,
13:03
Maybe it's the diarrhea.
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或許是痢疾這件事對我造成了這種影響,
13:05
Maybe the last mile problem really should be thought of
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也或許我們應該把最後一哩這個問題,
13:07
as the last mile opportunity.
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當成是一種機會來看待。
13:09
Let's go back to diabetes.
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我們來看看糖尿病,
13:11
This is a typical insulin injection.
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這是一般的胰島素針劑,
13:14
Now, carrying this thing around is complicated.
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把這個針劑帶著到處走確實很麻煩,
13:17
You gotta carry the bottle, you gotta carry the syringe.
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你得帶著藥瓶,還得帶著針筒,
13:21
It's also painful.
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打針還會痛。
13:23
Now, you may think to yourself, "Well, if my eyes depended on it,
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你可能會想:「嗯,如果我可能因此而失明,
13:27
you know, I would obviously use it every day."
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我一定會天天注射。」
13:29
But the pain, the discomfort,
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但是那種痛苦,那種不舒服的感覺,
13:31
you know, paying attention, remembering to put it in your purse
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請各位想一想,如果你要出發去長途旅行,
13:33
when you go on a long trip:
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你得記得把這些針劑放進皮包裡,
13:35
These are the day-to-day of life, and they do pose problems.
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這些是每天都要做的事,確實造成不少困擾。
13:39
Here is an innovation, a design innovation.
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現在有了新的發明,設計上的創新。
13:42
This is a pen, it's called an insulin pen, preloaded.
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這枝筆叫做胰島素筆,事先已填入胰島素,
13:46
The needle is particularly sharp.
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針頭比一般的更鋒利,
13:47
You just gotta carry this thing around.
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你只要帶著這枝筆,去到哪裡都方便,
13:49
It's much easier to use, much less painful.
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而且比原先的針劑容易使用,也比較不會痛。
13:51
Anywhere between five and 10 percent increase in adherence,
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只要改用這枝筆,服用胰島素的持續率
13:55
just as a result of this.
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就會提升5%到10%。
13:57
That's what I'm talking about as a last mile opportunity.
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這就是我說的最後一哩的轉機。
14:00
You see, we tend to think the problem is solved
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每次我們解決了科技上的問題,
14:03
when we solve the technology problem.
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我們就以為問題已經解決了。
14:05
But the human innovation, the human problem
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儘管我們有所創新,但問題還是持續存在,
14:07
still remains, and that's a great frontier that we have left.
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我們忘了還有許多問題沒有克服。
14:11
This isn't about the biology of people;
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這與人類的生理構造無關,
14:13
this is now about the brains, the psychology of people,
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這完全是由人類的大腦--也就是人類的心理狀況來決定,
14:17
and innovation needs to continue all the way through
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創新必須要能夠一路持續到
14:19
the last mile.
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最後一哩。
14:21
Here's another example of this.
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這裡有一個例子,
14:23
This is from a company called Positive Energy.
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這個公司叫做正向能源(Positive Energy),
14:26
This is about energy efficiency.
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他們主要研究節能產品。
14:28
We're spending a lot of time on fuel cells right now.
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我們花了很多時間研究燃料電池,
14:31
What this company does is they send a letter
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但這個公司做的只是寄給每個家庭一封信,
14:33
to households that say, "Here's your energy use,
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上面寫著:「這是你的用電量,
14:35
here's your neighbor's energy use: You're doing well." Smiley face.
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這是你鄰居的用電量,你做得不錯。」附上一個笑臉,
14:38
"You're doing worse." Frown.
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「你做得比較差。」附上一個苦瓜臉。
14:40
And what they find is just this letter, nothing else,
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他們發現,光是這封信,
14:43
has a two to three percent reduction in electricity use.
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就可以節省2%到3%的用電量。
14:45
And you want to think about the social value of that
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我們可以接著想像這件事所帶來的社會效益:
14:47
in terms of carbon offsets, reduced electricity,
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碳排放量減少了、用電量降低、
14:49
900 million dollars per year.
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一年節省9億美金。
14:51
Why? Because for free,
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為什麼?因為這封信沒花什麽錢,
14:53
this isn't a new technology, this is a letter --
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也不是什麼新科技,就只是一封信而已,
14:55
we're getting a Big Bang in behavior.
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就能對我們的行為產生很大的影響。
14:57
So, how do we tackle the last mile?
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那麼,我們該怎麼處理最後一哩這個問題?
15:01
I think this tells us there is an opportunity.
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我認為,這個例子讓我們看到了轉機,
15:04
And I think to tackle it, we need to combine
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我相信要處理這個問題,我們必得結合
15:06
psychology,
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心理層面、
15:08
marketing,
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行銷層面、
15:10
art, we've seen that.
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與藝術層面,就像我們剛才看到的一樣。
15:12
But you know what we need to combine it with?
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但你知道這些東西該與什麼結合起來嗎?
15:14
We need to combine this with the scientific method.
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這些東西必須與科學方法相結合。
15:16
See what's really puzzling and frustrating about the last mile, to me,
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對我來說,最後一哩真正難解與困擾人的地方在於,
15:20
is that the first 999 miles are all about science.
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前面那999哩都是由科學方法來解決。
15:23
No one would say, "Hey, I think this medicine works, go ahead and use it."
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沒有人會說:「嘿,我覺得這種藥很有效,讓我們開始用這種藥吧!」
15:27
We have testing, we go to the lab, we try it again, we have refinement.
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我們要先進行測試,要進到實驗試裡再試驗個幾次,還得要改良,
15:29
But you know what we do on the last mile?
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但你知道我們在最後一哩時會怎麼做嗎?
15:32
"Oh, this is a good idea. People will like this. Let's put it out there."
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「噢,這真是個好主意!大家一定會喜歡的!就開始實施吧!」
15:35
The amount of resources we put in are disparate.
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我們所投入的資源完全不對等。
15:37
We put billions of dollars into fuel-efficient technologies.
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我們在節能科技上投入了數十億元的經費,
15:40
How much are we putting into
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但我們又投入了多少經費,
15:42
energy behavior change
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去開發可靠、有系統、驗證過的方法,
15:44
in a credible, systematic, testing way?
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以改變人們使用能源的習慣?
15:47
Now, I think that we're on the verge of something big.
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現在,我認為我們已經摸到一點邊了,
15:50
We're on the verge of a whole new social science.
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我們已經摸到嶄新社會科學領域的邊了,
15:53
It's a social science that recognizes --
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社會科學能幫助我們瞭解,
15:55
much like science recognizes the complexity of the body,
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就像科學能幫助我們瞭解人體的奧妙,
15:58
biology recognizes the complexity of the body -- we'll recognize
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或像生物學能幫助我們瞭解人體的奧妙,
16:00
the complexity of the human mind.
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社會科學能幫助我們瞭解人類心智的奧妙。
16:02
The careful testing, retesting, design,
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透過嚴謹的測試、再測試和設計,
16:04
are going to open up vistas of understanding,
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我們必將開啟認知的大門,讓我們瞭解
16:07
complexities, difficult things.
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複雜、困難的事物;
16:09
And those vistas will both create new science,
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這種認知不但會開啟新的科學,
16:12
and fundamental change in the world as we see it, in the next hundred years.
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還會在未來的100年內,徹底顛覆我們所認知的世界。
16:16
All right. Thank you very much.
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謝謝各位!
16:18
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
16:20
Chris Anderson: Sendhil, thank you so much.
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克里斯.安德森:山迪,謝謝你的演說。
16:22
So, this whole area is so fascinating.
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這個領域真的很吸引人!
16:25
I mean, it sometimes feels, listening to behavioral economists
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我覺得,有時候聽你們這些行為經濟學家的演說,
16:28
that they are kind of putting into place
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就像是把行銷技巧以學術理論呈現,
16:31
academically, what great marketers
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但傑出的推銷員
16:33
have sort of intuitively known for a long time.
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早就在無形中運用自如了。
16:36
How much is your field talking to great marketers
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在你的研究領域裡,是否曾和傑出的推銷員們
16:40
about their insights into human psychology?
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聊過他們對於人類心理的觀察?
16:42
Because they've seen it on the ground.
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我想他們早就瞭然於胸了吧?
16:44
Sendhil Mullainathan: Yeah, we spend a lot of time talking to marketers,
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山迪:對,我們花了很長的時間與推銷員們對話,
16:46
and I think 60 percent of it is exactly what you say,
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我想有60%是被你說中了,
16:49
there are insights to be gleaned there.
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他們確實是有些觀察入微的見解值得我們去蒐集,
16:51
Forty percent of it is about what marketing is.
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另外40%則是談論有關推銷的技巧。
16:53
Marketing is selling an ad to a firm.
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舉例來說,當你要向一家公司推銷一則廣告時,
16:58
So, in some sense, a lot of marketing is about
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有絕大部分的時間,你會去說服那位CEO,
17:00
convincing a CEO, "This is a good ad campaign."
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告訴他那則廣告的效果會有多好。
17:03
So, there is a little bit of slippage there.
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但這裡面有陷阱,
17:05
That's just a caveat. That's different from actually having an effective ad campaign.
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你只是告訴他可能有的效果而已,真正的效果一定有所不同,
17:09
And one of the new movements in marketing is: How do we actually
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而目前在行銷業界的新課題,就是想辦法
17:11
measure effectiveness? Are we effective?
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去衡量效果,要怎麼確認一個廣告是有效的?
17:13
CA: How you take your insights here
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克里斯:舉例來說,
17:17
and actually get them integrated
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你要怎麼把你的觀點
17:20
into working business models on the ground,
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和印度這裡的企業運作方式
17:23
in Indian villages, for example?
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相結合?
17:25
SM: So, the scientific method I alluded to is pretty important.
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山迪:我剛才所提到的科學方法是很重要的,
17:28
We work closely with companies that have operational capacity,
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我們和一些具有營運規模的私人企業
17:30
or nonprofits that have operational capacity.
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及非營利組織緊密合作,
17:32
And then we say, "Well, you want to get this behavior change.
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我們會說,嗯,如果你想要改變人們的行為,
17:34
Let's come up with a few ideas, test them,
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我們就來想幾個方法,測試一下,
17:37
see which is working, go back, synthesize,
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看哪一個方法有效,回去重組一下,
17:39
and try to come up with a thing that works,"
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找出最有效的方法,
17:41
and then we're able to scale with partners.
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才能在其他企業裡面大量推廣。
17:43
It's kind of the model that has worked in other contexts.
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就好像其他科學領域的研究人員所做的事情一樣,
17:45
If you have biological problems
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如果你有生物學上的問題,
17:47
we try and fix it, see if it works, and then work the scale.
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你會想辦法解決,看什麼方法有效,再決定推廣出去。
17:49
CA: Alright Sendhil, thanks so much for coming to TED. Thank you.
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克里斯:好的,山迪!謝謝你來TED演講,謝謝!
17:52
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
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