How China is (and isn't) fighting pollution and climate change | Angel Hsu

翻译人员: jacks peng 校对人员: Wei Wu

When is seeing not believing?

什么时候眼见不实？

A couple years ago, my friend sent me this photo from Ürümqi,

几年前，我朋友给我发了这张 来自乌鲁木齐的照片，

which is the capital of Xinjiang province in northwest China.

它是中国西北部新疆省的省会。

On this particular day, she couldn't believe her eyes.

在这个特定的日子里， 她无法相信自己的眼睛。

Checking the quality of the air outside using this app on her iPad,

用她iPad上这个手机应用 查看外面的空气质量，

the numbers were telling her the air quality was good,

数字告诉她空气质量优质，

one on a scale of 500.

在500的范围内质量为1。

But when she looked outside, she saw something much different.

但当她看外面，她看到了 一些很不一样的东西。

Yes, those are buildings in the background.

是的，这些是背景的建筑。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

But the data were simply not telling the truth

但数据只是没有反映

of what people were seeing and breathing,

人们看到和呼吸到的真相。

and it's because they were failing to measure PM2.5,

这是因为中国没能监测PM2.5，

or fine particulate pollution.

或细颗粒污染。

When PM2.5 levels went off the charts in 2012,

当2012年PM2.5水平爆表时，

or "crazy bad," as the US Embassy once described it in a tweet,

或者“糟糕透了”，正如美国大使馆 在一条推特上所说，

Chinese denizens took to social media

中国公民使用社交媒体

and they started to question why it was that they were seeing this disconnect

开始质疑为什么官方空气质量统计数据

between official air quality statistics

与他们自己看到和呼吸的

and what they were seeing and breathing for themselves.

存在这么大的脱节。

Now, this questioning has led

这个质疑引发了

to an environmental awakening of sorts in China,

中国环境意识的觉醒，

forcing China's government to tackle its pollution problems.

迫使中国政府解决污染问题。

Now China has the opportunity to become a global environmental leader.

现在中国有机会成为全球环境领袖。

But the picture that I'll paint for you today

但今天我要给你们描绘的画面

is one that's mixed.

要更加混合。

There are some signs that are very promising,

有一些迹象非常令人鼓舞，

and there are other trends that are more troubling

但也有一些令人不安的趋势

that warrant closer attention.

需要更值得关注。

But now let's go back to the story at hand.

现在让我们回到手头的故事。

I started to witness the beginnings of China's green evolution

我开始见证中国绿色革命的开端，

when I was a PhD student conducting fieldwork in China in 2011.

当2011年我还是一名博士生， 在中国进行实地考察时。

I traveled all across the country seeking answers to the question

我全国到处行走寻找回答

that I often got myself from the skeptical outsider:

外部质疑者的怀疑问题：

What, you mean China is doing something on the environment?

什么，你说中国有在做环境相关的事情？

They have environmental policies?

他们有环保政策？

What policies?

什么政策？

At that time, PM2.5 data was considered too politically sensitive

当时，PM2.5被认为政治太敏感，

and so the government was keeping it secret,

于是政府秘而不宣，

but citizens were becoming aware of its harmful human health effects,

但公众开始逐渐意识到它的健康危害，

and they were demanding greater transparency

他们要求政府

on the part of the government.

提高透明度。

I actually started to see some of this growing evolution and awareness myself

事实上，我开始看到这些不断增长 的演变和意识

cropping up all over China.

在中国各地不断冒出。

Department stores, for example, started to market these air purifiers

例如，百货商店开始销售空气净化器

that could filter out harmful PM2.5.

用来过滤有害的PM2.5。

Citizens were also adopting PM2.5 as the title of musical festivals.

公民也用PM2.5作为音乐节的名字。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

And then I went to a golf course in Shenzhen, which is in southern China,

后来我去了深圳的一个高尔夫球场， 它在中国南方，

and you can see from this banner, they're advertising a retreat from PM2.5.

你可以从这条横幅上看到， 他们在宣传这里几乎没有PM2.5。

Golf sub-par, but don't breathe sub-par air.

高尔夫球场低于平均水平， 不要呼吸低标准的空气。

And then Shanghai's Environmental Protection Bureau

然后是上海的环境保护局

decided to create a mascot named after the air quality index

决定创建一个以空气质量指数命名的吉祥物

to better communicate the air quality data to its people.

来更好地跟民众沟通空气质量指数。

I call her AQI Girl,

我叫她为AQI女孩（空气质量指数女孩），

and her expression and hair color changes depending on the quality of air outside.

她的表情和头发的颜色会随着 外面空气的质量而变化。

Five years later and she's still the mostly smiling face

五年后，上海空气质量在大部分情况下

of Shanghai's air quality.

都是微笑面孔。

And then in 2015,

然后在2015年，

former CCTV reporter Chai Jing

中央电视台前记者柴静

created this documentary called "Under the Dome."

制作了纪录片《穹顶之下》。

It would be likened to Rachel Carson's "Silent Spring."

这就好比蕾切尔·卡逊的《寂静的春天》。

And much like Rachel Carson

很像蕾切尔·卡逊

brought to attention the fact that pesticides were harming human health,

唤起人们关注杀虫剂正在危害人类健康，

"Under the Dome" stamped into the popular consciousness

《穹顶之下》让人们意识到

that air pollution was leading to one million premature deaths

空气污染每年光在中国就导致100万人

every year in China alone.

过早死亡。

This video garnered

这个视频

more than a hundred million views in a single weekend

在政府干预前的一个周末内

before China's government,

播放量就超过了1亿，

fearing that it might incite some type of social unrest,

政府担心这会引起社会动荡，

pulled it from the internet.

从互联网下架了此视频。

But the damage had already been done.

但损害已经造成。

Public outcry over air pollution

公众对空气污染的愤怒

galvanized China's government,

刺激了中国政府，

perhaps in an act of self-preservation,

或许是出于自我保护，

to think big and decisively about how it could tackle

从大的和决定性的角度考虑

the root of its air pollution

如何解决空气污染的根源

and many of its other environmental problems:

以及它的很多其他环境问题：

its energy system.

它的能源体系。

For you see, in China,

如你所见，中国，

about two thirds of its electricity comes from coal.

大概2/3的电力来自煤炭。

China has more coal-fired power plants than any other country in the world,

中国拥有世界上最多的燃煤发电厂，

about 40 percent of the global total,

占全球总量的40%，

and it's because of this fact that China's government

正是因为这个事实，中国政府

has decided since 2014 to wage a war on coal,

决定2014年开始对煤炭宣战，

shutting down small coal mines,

关闭小煤矿，

setting limits on coal consumption,

限制煤炭消费，

even canceling an Australia's worth of coal-fired power plants.

甚至关闭了相当于澳大利亚 的煤炭发电厂。

They've also been making enormous investments

他们也在诸如水力发电， 风能和太阳能

when it comes to clean and renewable energy,

那样的清洁和可再生能源上

like hydropower, wind and solar,

做了大举投入，

and the pace and the scale of this transformation

这种转变的速度和规模

has been absolutely mind-blowing.

绝对令人震惊。

Let me give you a couple of statistics to show you what I mean.

让我给你们一组统计数据阐明我的意思。

China leads the world when it comes to hydropower,

在水力发电方面， 中国以全球1/3的容量

with a third of total capacity.

领先全球。

There's enough for every Chinese citizen

仅水力发电一年

to power two homes in a single year from hydropower alone.

就足够每个中国公民为两户人家 提供电力。

You may have heard of the Three Gorges Dam,

你们可能听过三峡大坝，

pictured here,

图片在这，

which is the largest power station in the world,

是世界上最大的发电站，

and it's powered by water.

它是由水驱动的。

In terms of wind power,

风电方面，

China has a third of the global capacity.

中国占全球装机容量的1/3.

This makes it the number one leader by far.

这它成为遥遥领先的第一名。

When we look at solar, China's also leading.

当我们看太阳能时， 中国也处于领先地位。

In fact, they crushed their 2020 target

事实上，他们实现了2020年

of installing 105 gigawatts of solar power.

安装105千兆瓦太阳能的目标。

This is after the government already revised upwards

在此之前，中国政府

several times its solar energy target

已在2009年至2015年间数次上调

between 2009 and 2015.

太阳能目标。

Last year, in seven months alone,

去年，仅仅在7个月内，

China was able to install a whopping 35 gigawatts of solar power.

中国太阳能装机容量达到了 惊人的35千兆瓦。

This is more than half of what the US has combined in total

这一数字超过了美国总和的一半，

and China did this in just seven months alone.

而且中国在7个月的时间内就做到了。

We can verify this remarkable growth in solar power from space,

我们可以从太空中验证 太阳能的显著增长，

like the startup SpaceKnow has done in this slide.

如初创公司天空之眼(SpaceKnow) 的这张图表上所示。

By 2020, China is on track to generate Germany's entire electricity consumption

到2020年，中国有望只通过风能和太阳能

from just wind and solar power alone.

就能实现德国的全部电力消费。

It's pretty darn remarkable.

这是相当惊人的。

And we see some evidence now

我们现在可以看到一些证据，

that China's efforts on clean energy

中国在清洁能源上的努力

is actually having an effect,

确实在产生成效，

not just on air pollution reduction,

不仅对减少空气污染，

but also on global climate change,

但也对全球气候变化，

where China has the world's largest carbon footprint.

中国是世界上碳排放量最大的国家。

If we look at some of the data, we can see that China's coal consumption

如果我们看数据，可以看到中国的煤炭消费

may have already reached a peak as early as 2013.

可能早在2013年就达到了峰值。

This is a major reason why China's government announced

这是中国政府之所以宣布

that actually they've already achieved their 2020 carbon reduction pledge

他们已经提前实现2020年减排承诺

ahead of schedule.

的主要原因。

This reduction in coal consumption

煤炭消费的减少

is also directly driving improvements in air quality

也直接改善了全国各地的

across the country,

空气质量，

as I've shown here in blue.

就如我在这里展现的蓝色部分。

In most major Chinese cities,

在多数主要中国城市，

air pollution has fallen by as much as 30 percent.

空气污染下降多达30%。

And this reduction in air pollution is actually leading people

空气污染的减少也确实让中国人们

to live longer lives in China,

寿命增加，

on average two and a half years more than they would have in 2013.

平均比2013年多两年半。

In yellow, we can see the cities that have experienced

黄色这些，是我们可以看到的

the greatest improvements in air quality.

空气质量改善最大的城市。

But of course, as I mentioned at the beginning of this talk,

但当然，就如我在这个演讲开头 提到的那样，

we have to temper some of this optimism

我们必须用适当的谨慎

with a healthy dose of caution,

来缓和这种乐观情绪，

and that's largely because the data are still being determined.

这很大程度上是因为数据还未最终确认。

At the end of last year,

去年年底，

after roughly three years of pretty steady global carbon emissions,

在全球碳排放量稳定增长大约三年之后，

scientific projections suggest

科学预测表明，

that global emissions may be on the rise again

全球排放量可能再次上升

and that could be due to increases in China's fossil fuel consumptions,

这可能是由于中国化石燃料消费的增加，

so they may not have reached that peak that I showed earlier.

所以它们可能没有达到 我之前展示的峰值。

But of course, the statistics and the data are still murky

但当然，统计数据和数据仍然模糊不清，

and that's because China regularly revises its coal statistics after the fact.

这是因为中国在事后定期修正 煤炭统计数据。

Actually, it's funny,

实际上，这很有趣，

since I've been here I've been having a debate on Twitter

自从我来到这里，我就在推特上和其他

with other climate modelers,

气候模型专家辩论，

trying to figure out whether China's carbon emissions

想要搞清楚中国的碳排放

have gone up, gone down or whether they're staying relatively stable.

是上升，下降还是保持相对稳定。

And of course, China is still a rapidly developing country.

当然，中国仍然是快速发展中国家。

It's still experimenting with a range of policies,

它仍然在试验各种政策，

like dockless bike sharing,

比如无桩共享单车，

which has been hailed as a possible sustainable transport solution.

这被认为是一种可行的可持续交通解决方案。

But then we have images of this bicycle graveyard

但后来我们有这个自行车墓地的图片

that tell a more cautionary tale.

说明一个更值得警惕的故事。

Sometimes, solutions can move too fast

有些时候，解决方案变化太快

and outpace demand.

并超出需求。

And of course, coal is still king in China,

当然，煤炭仍然是中国的王者，

at least for now.

至少目前而言。

So why should we care about what China is doing on the environment?

那么，我们为什么要关心中国 在环境上的所作所为呢？

Well, what China does at home on the environment

中国在国内环境问题上的作为可能会对

can have global implications for the rest of us.

我们其他国家产生全球性的影响。

To borrow a line from Chai Jing,

引用柴静的一句台词，

we're all under the same dome,

我们都生活在同一个穹顶下，

and air pollution that originates in China

来自中国的空间污染

can travel beyond its borders

可以跨越国家扩散

and affect populations as far away as those in North America.

影响远至北美的人民。

China's not only exporting air pollution,

中国不仅出口空间污染，

but they're also exporting aid, infrastructure, technology abroad.

他们也在向国外输出援助， 基础设施和技术。

President Xi Jinping in 2013 announced the One Belt, One Road Initiative,

2013年习近平主席宣布一带一路倡议，

a massive, one-trillion-US-dollar infrastructure investment project

一个规模庞大，价值1万亿美元， 覆盖超过60个其他国家

in more than 60 other countries.

的基础设施建设项目。

And historically, when we've seen

历史上，当我们看

that China has made these infrastructure investments abroad,

中国在海外进行基础设施投资时，

they haven't always been clean.

它们并不总是清洁的。

The Global Environment Institute, a Chinese civil society group,

全球环境研究所，一个中国公民社会组织，

found that in the last 15 years,

发现在过去15年，

China has invested in more than 240 coal-fired power plants

中国已经在68个国家投资超过

in more than 68 countries

240个燃煤发电厂，

affiliated with the One Belt, One Road Initiative.

这与一路一带倡议有关。

That's more than a quarter of China's own domestic coal-fired capacity

超过中国国内燃煤发电能力的1/4

that is exported abroad.

被出口至海外。

So we can see that even though China is cleaning up at home,

于是我们可以看到尽管中国国内正在改善，

it's exporting some of that pollution

它在出口部分的污染

to other countries,

到其他国家，

and greenhouse gas emissions simply don't have a passport.

而且温室气体排放根本不用护照。

So when we're trying to evaluate this question

所以当我们试图评估中国

of whether or not China is actually leading,

是否真正领先这个问题时，

we can see it's still very much an open debate.

我们可以看到仍然有太多的公开争议。

But time is running out.

但时间所剩无几。

I've studied the climate models, and the outlook is not good.

我研究过气候模型，前景并不乐观。

We still have a gap between current policies

如果我们要避免危险的环境变化，

and what needs to happen if we want to avoid dangerous climate change.

现行政策和需要做的事情之间 仍有很大的鸿沟。

Leadership is what we desperately need,

领导力是我们迫切需要的，

but it's not coming from the US, for example.

但举例来说，美国是不能指望了。

The US administration last June announced its intent

美国政府去年6月宣布

to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement,

有意退出《巴黎气候协定》，

so now people are looking towards China to fill that leadership void.

因此现在人们希望中国来填补 这一领导真空。

So China is very much in the driver's seat

所以，中国很大程度上掌握着主动权

determining our global environmental future.

决定我们全球环境的未来。

What they do on carbon trading,

他们在碳交易，

on clean energy, on air pollution,

清洁能源，空气污染的作为，

we can learn many lessons.

我们可以学到很多东西。

One of those lessons is that clean energy is not just good for the environment,

其中一点是清洁能源不仅对环境好，

it can save lives by reducing air pollution.

它可以通过减少空气污染拯救生命。

It's also good for the economy.

它也对经济有益。

We can see that last year,

我们可以看到去年，

China was responsible for 30 percent of the global growth

中国占了全球清洁能源就业增长

in green jobs.

中的30%。

The US? Only six.

美国呢？只有6%。

So the picture that I just painted for you

所以我刚才给你们绘的图，

hopefully seems much different

那些模糊的，雾霾的空气质量统计数据

from those murky, foggy air quality statistics

到更加中国清洁能源更加清洁的图片

to a much clearer picture of China's clean energy.

希望看起来不同。

And even though China is headed in the right direction,

尽管中国正朝着正确的方向前进，

we know that there's still a very long road ahead.

我们知道前面仍有很长的路要走。

So let me ask you once more: Is seeing believing?

所以让我再问你一次：眼见为实吗？

Can we trust the data and the statistics

我们能够相信数据和统计

that show that China's air quality is coming down

所显示的中国空气质量指数在改善

and that its war on coal is actually having an effect?

以及对煤炭的战争取得成效了吗？

Well, let's take a look at some of the latest satellite images

让我们来看看中国太阳能装机的

of China's solar power installations.

最新的卫星图片。

I want you to look very closely at this image.

我想要你们认真看看这张照片。

Can you see?

看到了吗？

The proof may just be in the pandas.

证据就在熊猫上。

Thank you so much.

谢谢。

(Applause)

（鼓掌）