How China is (and isn't) fighting pollution and climate change | Angel Hsu

177,806 views ・ 2018-09-19

TED


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00:13
When is seeing not believing?
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A couple years ago, my friend sent me this photo from Ürümqi,
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which is the capital of Xinjiang province in northwest China.
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On this particular day, she couldn't believe her eyes.
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Checking the quality of the air outside using this app on her iPad,
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the numbers were telling her the air quality was good,
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one on a scale of 500.
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But when she looked outside, she saw something much different.
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Yes, those are buildings in the background.
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(Laughter)
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But the data were simply not telling the truth
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of what people were seeing and breathing,
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and it's because they were failing to measure PM2.5,
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or fine particulate pollution.
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When PM2.5 levels went off the charts in 2012,
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or "crazy bad," as the US Embassy once described it in a tweet,
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Chinese denizens took to social media
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and they started to question why it was that they were seeing this disconnect
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between official air quality statistics
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and what they were seeing and breathing for themselves.
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Now, this questioning has led
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to an environmental awakening of sorts in China,
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forcing China's government to tackle its pollution problems.
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Now China has the opportunity to become a global environmental leader.
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But the picture that I'll paint for you today
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is one that's mixed.
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There are some signs that are very promising,
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and there are other trends that are more troubling
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that warrant closer attention.
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But now let's go back to the story at hand.
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I started to witness the beginnings of China's green evolution
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when I was a PhD student conducting fieldwork in China in 2011.
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I traveled all across the country seeking answers to the question
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that I often got myself from the skeptical outsider:
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What, you mean China is doing something on the environment?
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They have environmental policies?
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What policies?
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At that time, PM2.5 data was considered too politically sensitive
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and so the government was keeping it secret,
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but citizens were becoming aware of its harmful human health effects,
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and they were demanding greater transparency
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on the part of the government.
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I actually started to see some of this growing evolution and awareness myself
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cropping up all over China.
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Department stores, for example, started to market these air purifiers
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that could filter out harmful PM2.5.
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Citizens were also adopting PM2.5 as the title of musical festivals.
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(Laughter)
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And then I went to a golf course in Shenzhen, which is in southern China,
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and you can see from this banner, they're advertising a retreat from PM2.5.
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Golf sub-par, but don't breathe sub-par air.
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And then Shanghai's Environmental Protection Bureau
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decided to create a mascot named after the air quality index
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to better communicate the air quality data to its people.
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I call her AQI Girl,
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and her expression and hair color changes depending on the quality of air outside.
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Five years later and she's still the mostly smiling face
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of Shanghai's air quality.
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And then in 2015,
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former CCTV reporter Chai Jing
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created this documentary called "Under the Dome."
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It would be likened to Rachel Carson's "Silent Spring."
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And much like Rachel Carson
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brought to attention the fact that pesticides were harming human health,
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"Under the Dome" stamped into the popular consciousness
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that air pollution was leading to one million premature deaths
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every year in China alone.
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This video garnered
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more than a hundred million views in a single weekend
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before China's government,
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fearing that it might incite some type of social unrest,
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pulled it from the internet.
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But the damage had already been done.
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Public outcry over air pollution
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galvanized China's government,
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perhaps in an act of self-preservation,
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to think big and decisively about how it could tackle
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the root of its air pollution
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and many of its other environmental problems:
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its energy system.
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For you see, in China,
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about two thirds of its electricity comes from coal.
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China has more coal-fired power plants than any other country in the world,
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about 40 percent of the global total,
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and it's because of this fact that China's government
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has decided since 2014 to wage a war on coal,
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shutting down small coal mines,
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setting limits on coal consumption,
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even canceling an Australia's worth of coal-fired power plants.
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They've also been making enormous investments
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when it comes to clean and renewable energy,
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like hydropower, wind and solar,
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and the pace and the scale of this transformation
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has been absolutely mind-blowing.
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Let me give you a couple of statistics to show you what I mean.
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China leads the world when it comes to hydropower,
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with a third of total capacity.
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There's enough for every Chinese citizen
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to power two homes in a single year from hydropower alone.
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You may have heard of the Three Gorges Dam,
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pictured here,
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which is the largest power station in the world,
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and it's powered by water.
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In terms of wind power,
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China has a third of the global capacity.
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This makes it the number one leader by far.
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When we look at solar, China's also leading.
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In fact, they crushed their 2020 target
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of installing 105 gigawatts of solar power.
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This is after the government already revised upwards
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several times its solar energy target
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between 2009 and 2015.
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Last year, in seven months alone,
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China was able to install a whopping 35 gigawatts of solar power.
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This is more than half of what the US has combined in total
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and China did this in just seven months alone.
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We can verify this remarkable growth in solar power from space,
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like the startup SpaceKnow has done in this slide.
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By 2020, China is on track to generate Germany's entire electricity consumption
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from just wind and solar power alone.
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It's pretty darn remarkable.
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And we see some evidence now
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that China's efforts on clean energy
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is actually having an effect,
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not just on air pollution reduction,
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but also on global climate change,
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where China has the world's largest carbon footprint.
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If we look at some of the data, we can see that China's coal consumption
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may have already reached a peak as early as 2013.
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This is a major reason why China's government announced
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that actually they've already achieved their 2020 carbon reduction pledge
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ahead of schedule.
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This reduction in coal consumption
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is also directly driving improvements in air quality
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across the country,
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as I've shown here in blue.
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In most major Chinese cities,
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air pollution has fallen by as much as 30 percent.
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And this reduction in air pollution is actually leading people
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to live longer lives in China,
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on average two and a half years more than they would have in 2013.
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In yellow, we can see the cities that have experienced
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the greatest improvements in air quality.
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But of course, as I mentioned at the beginning of this talk,
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we have to temper some of this optimism
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with a healthy dose of caution,
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and that's largely because the data are still being determined.
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At the end of last year,
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after roughly three years of pretty steady global carbon emissions,
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scientific projections suggest
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that global emissions may be on the rise again
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and that could be due to increases in China's fossil fuel consumptions,
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so they may not have reached that peak that I showed earlier.
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But of course, the statistics and the data are still murky
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and that's because China regularly revises its coal statistics after the fact.
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Actually, it's funny,
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since I've been here I've been having a debate on Twitter
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with other climate modelers,
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trying to figure out whether China's carbon emissions
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have gone up, gone down or whether they're staying relatively stable.
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And of course, China is still a rapidly developing country.
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It's still experimenting with a range of policies,
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like dockless bike sharing,
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which has been hailed as a possible sustainable transport solution.
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But then we have images of this bicycle graveyard
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that tell a more cautionary tale.
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Sometimes, solutions can move too fast
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and outpace demand.
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And of course, coal is still king in China,
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at least for now.
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So why should we care about what China is doing on the environment?
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Well, what China does at home on the environment
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can have global implications for the rest of us.
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To borrow a line from Chai Jing,
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we're all under the same dome,
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and air pollution that originates in China
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can travel beyond its borders
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and affect populations as far away as those in North America.
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China's not only exporting air pollution,
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but they're also exporting aid, infrastructure, technology abroad.
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President Xi Jinping in 2013 announced the One Belt, One Road Initiative,
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a massive, one-trillion-US-dollar infrastructure investment project
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in more than 60 other countries.
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And historically, when we've seen
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that China has made these infrastructure investments abroad,
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they haven't always been clean.
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The Global Environment Institute, a Chinese civil society group,
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found that in the last 15 years,
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China has invested in more than 240 coal-fired power plants
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in more than 68 countries
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affiliated with the One Belt, One Road Initiative.
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That's more than a quarter of China's own domestic coal-fired capacity
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that is exported abroad.
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So we can see that even though China is cleaning up at home,
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it's exporting some of that pollution
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to other countries,
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and greenhouse gas emissions simply don't have a passport.
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So when we're trying to evaluate this question
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of whether or not China is actually leading,
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we can see it's still very much an open debate.
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But time is running out.
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I've studied the climate models, and the outlook is not good.
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We still have a gap between current policies
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and what needs to happen if we want to avoid dangerous climate change.
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Leadership is what we desperately need,
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but it's not coming from the US, for example.
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The US administration last June announced its intent
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to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement,
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so now people are looking towards China to fill that leadership void.
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So China is very much in the driver's seat
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determining our global environmental future.
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What they do on carbon trading,
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on clean energy, on air pollution,
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we can learn many lessons.
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One of those lessons is that clean energy is not just good for the environment,
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it can save lives by reducing air pollution.
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It's also good for the economy.
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We can see that last year,
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China was responsible for 30 percent of the global growth
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in green jobs.
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The US? Only six.
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So the picture that I just painted for you
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hopefully seems much different
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from those murky, foggy air quality statistics
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to a much clearer picture of China's clean energy.
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And even though China is headed in the right direction,
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we know that there's still a very long road ahead.
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So let me ask you once more: Is seeing believing?
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Can we trust the data and the statistics
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that show that China's air quality is coming down
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and that its war on coal is actually having an effect?
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Well, let's take a look at some of the latest satellite images
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of China's solar power installations.
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I want you to look very closely at this image.
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Can you see?
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The proof may just be in the pandas.
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Thank you so much.
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(Applause)
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