How China is (and isn't) fighting pollution and climate change | Angel Hsu
177,806 views ・ 2018-09-19
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譯者: Lilian Chiu
審譯者: 易帆 余
00:13
When is seeing not believing?
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什麼時候,眼見不為實?
00:17
A couple years ago, my friend
sent me this photo from Ürümqi,
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幾年前,我朋友從烏魯木齊
傳了這張照片給我,
00:20
which is the capital of Xinjiang
province in northwest China.
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烏魯木齊是中國西北部
新疆省的首都。
00:24
On this particular day,
she couldn't believe her eyes.
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在這一天,她無法
相信她所看見的。
00:28
Checking the quality of the air outside
using this app on her iPad,
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她用 iPad 上的這個應用程式
來確認外面的空氣品質,
00:33
the numbers were telling her
the air quality was good,
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數字告訴她,空氣品質很好,
00:36
one on a scale of 500.
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最高值是 500,此時只有 1。
00:38
But when she looked outside,
she saw something much different.
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但當她向外看,
她看到的景象完全不同。
00:42
Yes, those are buildings
in the background.
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是的,背景中的那些是建築物。
00:44
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
00:47
But the data were simply
not telling the truth
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但資料呈現的,就跟大家
看到和呼吸到的不一樣,
00:50
of what people were seeing and breathing,
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00:52
and it's because they were
failing to measure PM2.5,
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那是因為他們沒有測量 PM2.5,
00:56
or fine particulate pollution.
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或稱為懸浮微粒污染。
00:58
When PM2.5 levels
went off the charts in 2012,
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在 2012 年,
PM2.5 的值高到破表,
01:02
or "crazy bad," as the US Embassy
once described it in a tweet,
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美國大使館在推特上曾用
「糟到不可思議」來形容,
01:06
Chinese denizens took to social media
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中國居民開始在社交媒體談論,
01:08
and they started to question why it was
that they were seeing this disconnect
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他們質疑為什麼
會有這種落差出現,
01:12
between official air quality statistics
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官方的空氣品質統計數字
和他們親眼見到、
01:14
and what they were seeing
and breathing for themselves.
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親自呼吸到的實際狀況不同。
01:18
Now, this questioning has led
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這些質疑導致了
01:20
to an environmental awakening
of sorts in China,
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中國出現環境覺醒之類的現象,
01:24
forcing China's government
to tackle its pollution problems.
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強迫中國政府去處理污染問題。
01:28
Now China has the opportunity
to become a global environmental leader.
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現在,中國有機會
成為全球的環境領袖。
01:34
But the picture
that I'll paint for you today
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但,我今天要跟各位分享的狀況
01:36
is one that's mixed.
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是很複雜的狀況。
01:38
There are some signs
that are very promising,
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有一些徵兆顯示前景很好,
01:41
and there are other trends
that are more troubling
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也有其它的趨勢是比較堪憂的,
01:43
that warrant closer attention.
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需要更密切注意。
01:45
But now let's go back
to the story at hand.
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但,我們現在先回到手邊的故事。
01:48
I started to witness the beginnings
of China's green evolution
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2011 年,我是個博士生,
在中國進行實地研究,
01:51
when I was a PhD student
conducting fieldwork in China in 2011.
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那時,我開始目擊了
中國綠色進化的開端。
01:56
I traveled all across the country
seeking answers to the question
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我造訪中國各地,
尋求一些問題的答案,
01:59
that I often got myself
from the skeptical outsider:
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抱持懷疑的局外人常常會問我:
02:03
What, you mean China is doing
something on the environment?
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你說中國有些關於環境的作為,
那是什麼意思?
02:06
They have environmental policies?
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他們有環境政策了?
02:07
What policies?
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什麼政策?
02:09
At that time, PM2.5 data
was considered too politically sensitive
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在那時,PM2.5 資料
被認為政治敏感性太高,
02:14
and so the government
was keeping it secret,
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所以政府把這些資料完全保密,
02:16
but citizens were becoming aware
of its harmful human health effects,
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但人民開始意識到它對
人類健康具有有害的影響,
02:21
and they were demanding
greater transparency
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他們要求政府這一邊要有
02:23
on the part of the government.
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更高的透明度,
02:25
I actually started to see some of this
growing evolution and awareness myself
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我自己真的有看到
在中國各地都出現了進化
且越來越多人意識到這個議題。
02:29
cropping up all over China.
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02:31
Department stores, for example,
started to market these air purifiers
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比如,百貨公司開始
行銷各種空氣淨化機,
02:35
that could filter out harmful PM2.5.
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來過濾有害的 PM2.5。
02:39
Citizens were also adopting PM2.5
as the title of musical festivals.
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人民也採用 PM2.5
當作音樂節的標題。
02:44
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
02:46
And then I went to a golf course
in Shenzhen, which is in southern China,
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接著,我去深圳上一堂高爾夫
課程,深圳在中國南部,
02:50
and you can see from this banner,
they're advertising a retreat from PM2.5.
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各位可以看這個告示牌
宣稱此區是 PM2.5 的避難所。
02:55
Golf sub-par, but don't
breathe sub-par air.
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高爾夫要低於標準桿,
但呼吸的空氣不能低於標準。
02:59
And then Shanghai's
Environmental Protection Bureau
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接著,上海的環境保護局
03:01
decided to create a mascot
named after the air quality index
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決定要創造出一隻吉祥物,
以空氣品質指標(AQI)命名,
03:06
to better communicate
the air quality data to its people.
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才能針對空氣品質資料
和人民做更好的溝通。
03:10
I call her AQI Girl,
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我叫她 AQI 女孩,
03:12
and her expression and hair color changes
depending on the quality of air outside.
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她的表情和髮色會跟著
外面的空氣品質而改變。
03:17
Five years later and she's still
the mostly smiling face
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五年後,她仍然
大部分時候都是笑臉,
03:21
of Shanghai's air quality.
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代表上海的空氣品質還不錯。
03:23
And then in 2015,
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接著,2015 年,
03:25
former CCTV reporter Chai Jing
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前中國中央電視台記者柴靜
03:27
created this documentary
called "Under the Dome."
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製作了一部紀錄片《穹頂之下》。
03:30
It would be likened
to Rachel Carson's "Silent Spring."
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它可以被比作瑞秋卡森的
《寂靜的春天》。
03:34
And much like Rachel Carson
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且就像瑞秋卡森
03:35
brought to attention the fact
that pesticides were harming human health,
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讓大家注意到殺蟲劑
在傷害人類健康的事實,
03:39
"Under the Dome" stamped
into the popular consciousness
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《穹頂之下》讓大眾能夠意識到
03:43
that air pollution was leading
to one million premature deaths
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每年光是在中國的空氣污染
就造成了一百萬人過早死亡。
03:48
every year in China alone.
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03:51
This video garnered
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僅僅一個週末
03:52
more than a hundred million
views in a single weekend
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這支影片的點閱率
就超過一億人次,
03:55
before China's government,
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後來,中國政府
03:57
fearing that it might incite
some type of social unrest,
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害怕它可能會造成某種社會動盪,
04:00
pulled it from the internet.
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把它從網路上撤掉。
04:02
But the damage had already been done.
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但損害已經造成。
04:05
Public outcry over air pollution
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大眾對於空氣污染做出強烈抗議,
04:07
galvanized China's government,
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促使中國政府採取行動,
04:09
perhaps in an act of self-preservation,
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也許是為了保護自我,
04:11
to think big and decisively
about how it could tackle
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大膽而果斷地思考
如何解決空氣污染的根源,
04:14
the root of its air pollution
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04:16
and many of its other
environmental problems:
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並解決其它環境問題 :
04:18
its energy system.
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能源系統等。
04:20
For you see, in China,
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因為,在中國,
04:22
about two thirds of its
electricity comes from coal.
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大約三分之二的電力是來自燃煤。
04:26
China has more coal-fired power plants
than any other country in the world,
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中國的燃煤發電廠數量
比世界上任何國家都多,
04:31
about 40 percent of the global total,
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約佔了全球的 40%,
04:34
and it's because of this fact
that China's government
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因為這一點,中國政府
04:38
has decided since 2014
to wage a war on coal,
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決定從 2014 年開始對煤宣戰,
04:42
shutting down small coal mines,
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關閉小型的煤礦坑,
04:44
setting limits on coal consumption,
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設定煤的消耗限制,
04:47
even canceling an Australia's worth
of coal-fired power plants.
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甚至關閉了一座相當能產出
澳洲整體發電量的燃煤發電廠。
04:53
They've also been making
enormous investments
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他們也一直針對乾淨的
04:55
when it comes to clean
and renewable energy,
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可再生能源做大量的投資,
04:57
like hydropower, wind and solar,
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像是水力、風力,和太陽能發電,
05:00
and the pace and the scale
of this transformation
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這項轉變的步調以及規模
05:03
has been absolutely mind-blowing.
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十分讓人興奮。
05:05
Let me give you a couple of statistics
to show you what I mean.
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讓我用一些統計數字
來說明我的意思。
05:08
China leads the world
when it comes to hydropower,
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在水力發電上,中國領先全世界,
05:11
with a third of total capacity.
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佔總發電量的三分之一。
05:13
There's enough for every Chinese citizen
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那足夠讓每一位中國公民
05:16
to power two homes in a single year
from hydropower alone.
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光用水力發電就能供應
兩個家庭一年份的電力。
05:20
You may have heard
of the Three Gorges Dam,
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你們可能有聽過三峽大壩,
05:23
pictured here,
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這是它的照片,
05:24
which is the largest
power station in the world,
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它是世界上最大的發電站,
05:26
and it's powered by water.
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且是由水力來發電的。
05:28
In terms of wind power,
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在風力發電方面,
05:29
China has a third of the global capacity.
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中國佔了全世界總量的三分之一。
05:32
This makes it the number one
leader by far.
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目前為止中國是世界第一。
05:35
When we look at solar,
China's also leading.
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至於太陽能,中國也領先全球。
05:38
In fact, they crushed their 2020 target
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事實上,他們已經
達到了 2020 年的目標,
05:42
of installing 105 gigawatts
of solar power.
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1050 億瓦的太陽能。
05:45
This is after the government
already revised upwards
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且在這之前,政府就已經數次
05:48
several times its solar energy target
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於 2009 到 2015 年間
向上修正其太陽能目標。
05:51
between 2009 and 2015.
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05:54
Last year, in seven months alone,
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去年,僅在七個月份內,
05:57
China was able to install
a whopping 35 gigawatts of solar power.
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中國就產生了驚人的
350 億瓦太陽能電力。
06:02
This is more than half
of what the US has combined in total
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超過美國總量的一半,
06:05
and China did this
in just seven months alone.
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且中國只用了七個月就達到。
06:09
We can verify this remarkable growth
in solar power from space,
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我們可以從太空來驗證
中國在太陽能上的驚人成長,
06:13
like the startup SpaceKnow
has done in this slide.
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像這張投影片上的,
是新公司 SpaceKnow 所做的。
06:16
By 2020, China is on track to generate
Germany's entire electricity consumption
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到 2020 年時,中國將能夠
光靠風力和太陽能發電,
就能產生出德國的全國電力消耗量。
06:22
from just wind and solar power alone.
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06:25
It's pretty darn remarkable.
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這是相當了不起的。
06:28
And we see some evidence now
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現在已有證據顯示,
06:30
that China's efforts on clean energy
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中國在乾淨能量上所做的努力
06:32
is actually having an effect,
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是真的有影響,
06:34
not just on air pollution reduction,
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不只是讓空氣污染減少,
06:36
but also on global climate change,
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也改善全球的氣候變遷,
06:38
where China has the world's
largest carbon footprint.
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因為中國有世界上最大的碳足跡。
06:42
If we look at some of the data,
we can see that China's coal consumption
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從資料來看,我們可以
發現中國的煤消耗量
06:46
may have already reached a peak
as early as 2013.
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可能早在 2013 年
就已經達到高峰。
06:50
This is a major reason
why China's government announced
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主要是因為這個原因,
讓中國政府宣佈
06:53
that actually they've already achieved
their 2020 carbon reduction pledge
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他們已經達成了
2020 年的碳減量誓言,
06:58
ahead of schedule.
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超前進度。
07:00
This reduction in coal consumption
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煤消耗量的減少
07:02
is also directly driving
improvements in air quality
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也會直接促成全國各地
空氣品質的改善,
07:05
across the country,
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07:06
as I've shown here in blue.
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在這裡我用藍色標示。
07:09
In most major Chinese cities,
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在中國大部分的大城市,
07:10
air pollution has fallen
by as much as 30 percent.
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空氣污染已經下降 30% 之多。
07:14
And this reduction in air pollution
is actually leading people
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而空氣污染的減少,
07:17
to live longer lives in China,
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讓中國人民能夠更長壽,
07:19
on average two and a half years more
than they would have in 2013.
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平均來說,比 2013 年
多出 2.4 年的壽命。
07:25
In yellow, we can see
the cities that have experienced
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標示黃色的城市是空氣品質
07:28
the greatest improvements in air quality.
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改善最多的城市。
07:31
But of course, as I mentioned
at the beginning of this talk,
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但,當然,就像
我在演講一開頭說的,
07:34
we have to temper some of this optimism
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我們也不能樂觀過頭,
07:36
with a healthy dose of caution,
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還是要有適量的留心,
07:38
and that's largely because
the data are still being determined.
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因為大部分的資料還在判讀中。
07:43
At the end of last year,
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去年年底,
07:45
after roughly three years
of pretty steady global carbon emissions,
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在全球碳排放很穩定地
維持了大約三年之後,
07:49
scientific projections suggest
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科學預測指出
07:51
that global emissions
may be on the rise again
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全球排放量可能又會再次上升,
07:54
and that could be due to increases
in China's fossil fuel consumptions,
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原因可能是因為中國
對化石燃料的消耗增加,
07:58
so they may not have reached
that peak that I showed earlier.
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所以,中國可能還沒有達到
我先前所呈現的高峰。
08:02
But of course, the statistics
and the data are still murky
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但,當然,統計數字
和資料都仍然很模糊,
08:05
and that's because China regularly revises
its coal statistics after the fact.
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那是因為中國常常在看到事實後,
修正它對煤的相關統計數字。
08:11
Actually, it's funny,
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其實,挺好笑的,
08:12
since I've been here I've been
having a debate on Twitter
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在我來這裡之前,我還一直在推特上
08:15
with other climate modelers,
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和其他的氣候建模者辯論,
08:16
trying to figure out
whether China's carbon emissions
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試圖想要了解中國的碳排放
08:19
have gone up, gone down or whether
they're staying relatively stable.
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是攀升或下降,
或一直維持相對的穩定。
08:24
And of course, China is still
a rapidly developing country.
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當然,中國是個仍然在
快速發展中的國家。
08:28
It's still experimenting
with a range of policies,
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它還在經歷各種政策,
08:30
like dockless bike sharing,
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比如無固定停車點的共享單車,
08:32
which has been hailed as a possible
sustainable transport solution.
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這政策被讚譽為永續交通的
一個可能解決方案。
08:36
But then we have images
of this bicycle graveyard
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但接著我們看到的是
這種自行車墳場的景像,
08:40
that tell a more cautionary tale.
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訴說一個更謹慎的故事。
08:42
Sometimes, solutions can move too fast
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有時,解決方案可能會跑太快,
08:45
and outpace demand.
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趕過了需求。
08:47
And of course,
coal is still king in China,
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當然,煤在中國仍然居王位,
08:51
at least for now.
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至少目前是如此。
08:53
So why should we care about
what China is doing on the environment?
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所以,我們為什麼應該要在乎
中國對環境做了什麼?
08:57
Well, what China does at home
on the environment
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中國在國內對環境所做的事,
09:00
can have global implications
for the rest of us.
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對我們其他人來說,
可能會有全球性的意涵。
09:02
To borrow a line from Chai Jing,
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借用柴靜的話,
09:04
we're all under the same dome,
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我們都在同一個穹頂之下,
09:06
and air pollution that originates in China
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而發源自中國的空氣污染
09:09
can travel beyond its borders
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可能會移動到國界之外的地方,
09:11
and affect populations
as far away as those in North America.
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影響範圍可能遠至北美人口。
09:16
China's not only exporting air pollution,
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中國不只是在出口空氣污染,
09:18
but they're also exporting aid,
infrastructure, technology abroad.
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他們也把援助、基礎設施、
技術出口到國外。
09:24
President Xi Jinping in 2013 announced
the One Belt, One Road Initiative,
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2013 年,領導人習近平
宣佈了「一帶一路」計畫,
09:29
a massive, one-trillion-US-dollar
infrastructure investment project
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它是一個大規模、一兆美元的
基礎設施投資專案,
09:34
in more than 60 other countries.
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投資超過六十個國家。
09:36
And historically, when we've seen
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根據歷史,
09:38
that China has made
these infrastructure investments abroad,
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當中國對國外進行
這類基礎設施投資,
09:41
they haven't always been clean.
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不見得都是乾淨的。
09:43
The Global Environment Institute,
a Chinese civil society group,
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全球環境研究所是一個
中國的公民社會團體,
09:47
found that in the last 15 years,
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他們在過去十五年間發現
09:49
China has invested in more
than 240 coal-fired power plants
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中國已經投資了
超過 240 座燃煤發電廠,
09:53
in more than 68 countries
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位在超過 68 個國家中,
09:55
affiliated with the One Belt,
One Road Initiative.
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都是和一帶一路專案有關的國家。
09:58
That's more than a quarter of China's
own domestic coal-fired capacity
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也就是說,中國國內的
燃煤發電量有四分之一
10:02
that is exported abroad.
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被出口到國外去。
10:04
So we can see that even though
China is cleaning up at home,
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所以,雖然中國把自家清理乾淨了,
10:08
it's exporting some of that pollution
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卻是把其中一些污染出口
10:11
to other countries,
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到其他國家,
10:12
and greenhouse gas emissions
simply don't have a passport.
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因為溫室氣體的排放是不需要護照的。
10:16
So when we're trying
to evaluate this question
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所以,當我們還在評價
中國是否有確實地
10:18
of whether or not China
is actually leading,
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在帶頭處理這些問題時,
10:20
we can see it's still
very much an open debate.
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可以發現,這還有得辯論
沒有確定的答案。
10:24
But time is running out.
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但時間快用完了。
10:25
I've studied the climate models,
and the outlook is not good.
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我一直在研究氣候模型,
前景並不樂觀。
10:29
We still have a gap
between current policies
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若想要避免危險的氣候變遷
10:32
and what needs to happen if we want
to avoid dangerous climate change.
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目前的政策仍不足以應付。
10:37
Leadership is what we desperately need,
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地球迫切需要的是領導力,
10:39
but it's not coming
from the US, for example.
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但它不會來自美國,舉例來說。
10:42
The US administration last June
announced its intent
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去年六月,美國政府宣佈美國打算
10:45
to withdraw from
the Paris Climate Agreement,
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退出巴黎氣候協議,
10:48
so now people are looking towards China
to fill that leadership void.
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所以現在大家都期望中國
來補上這個領導的空缺。
10:52
So China is very much in the driver's seat
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所以中國可說是坐在駕駛座上,
10:54
determining our global
environmental future.
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決定我們全球環境的未來。
10:57
What they do on carbon trading,
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他們在碳交易、乾淨能源,
10:59
on clean energy, on air pollution,
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及空氣污染上所採取的行動,
11:03
we can learn many lessons.
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有很多可以讓我們學的。
11:05
One of those lessons is that clean energy
is not just good for the environment,
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能學到的其中一點就是
乾淨能源不只是對環境很好,
11:10
it can save lives
by reducing air pollution.
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還因減少空氣污染而拯救生命。
11:13
It's also good for the economy.
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它也對經濟有益。
11:15
We can see that last year,
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我們知道在去年,
11:17
China was responsible
for 30 percent of the global growth
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全球綠色工作成長中
有 30% 是中國的貢獻。
11:20
in green jobs.
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11:21
The US? Only six.
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美國的貢獻?僅 6%。
11:24
So the picture that I just painted for you
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所以,我剛剛向各位描述的情況,
11:27
hopefully seems much different
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希望和那些模糊、朦朧的
11:29
from those murky,
foggy air quality statistics
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空氣品質統計數字有所不同,
11:32
to a much clearer picture
of China's clean energy.
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希望我有更清楚地闡述了
中國的乾淨能源狀況。
11:36
And even though China
is headed in the right direction,
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雖然中國在朝著正確的方向前進,
11:39
we know that there's still
a very long road ahead.
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我們知道還有很長的路要走。
11:42
So let me ask you once more:
Is seeing believing?
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所以,讓我再問各位一次:
眼見就為實嗎?
11:45
Can we trust the data and the statistics
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我們能否相信
資料和統計數字所顯示的
11:47
that show that China's
air quality is coming down
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中國不好的空氣品質正在緩和中,
11:51
and that its war on coal
is actually having an effect?
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中國對抗燃煤的戰爭真的有成?
11:55
Well, let's take a look
at some of the latest satellite images
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咱們來看一些最新的衛星影像,
11:58
of China's solar power installations.
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了解中國的太陽能設施。
12:02
I want you to look
very closely at this image.
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請各位非常仔細地看這張影像。
12:06
Can you see?
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你們能看見嗎?
12:08
The proof may just be in the pandas.
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證據可能就在熊貓裡。
12:11
Thank you so much.
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非常謝謝各位。
12:12
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
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