James Stavridis: How NATO's Supreme Commander thinks about global security

57,085 views ・ 2012-07-23

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00:00
Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Morton Bast
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翻译人员: Yilun Zhou 校对人员: Sophie Zhao
00:15
I'm gonna talk a little bit about open-source security,
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我将要介绍一些开放式安全性问题,
00:20
because we've got to get better at security
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因为我们在21世纪已经离安全
00:22
in this 21st century.
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越来越近了。
00:24
Let me start by saying, let's look back to the 20th century,
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我们先回顾一下20世纪吧,
00:29
and kind of get a sense of how that style of security
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然后我们就能了解安全这个概念是如何
00:33
worked for us.
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为我们而工作。
00:34
This is Verdun, a battlefield in France
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这里是Verdun,一个法国的战场,
00:37
just north of the NATO headquarters in Belgium.
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就在北约在比利时总部的北边。
00:41
At Verdun, in 1916, over a 300-day period,
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1916年,在Verdun这个战场上,
00:47
700,000 people were killed,
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700000人在300天内被杀了,
00:50
so about 2,000 a day.
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那就是差不多2000人一天。
00:52
If you roll it forward -- 20th-century security --
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咱们继续往前看--20世纪的安全--
00:57
into the Second World War,
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看到二战,
01:00
you see the Battle of Stalingrad,
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我们看得到在斯大林格勒保卫战,
01:02
300 days, 2 million people killed.
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300天内有二百万人战死。
01:06
We go into the Cold War, and we continue
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进入冷战,我们继续
01:08
to try and build walls.
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建造围墙。
01:11
We go from the trench warfare of the First World War
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我们从一战的壕沟,
01:15
to the Maginot Line of the Second World War,
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到二战的马其顿防线,
01:19
and then we go into the Cold War,
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再到冷战中的
01:21
the Iron Curtain, the Berlin Wall.
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铁幕,柏林墙。
01:24
Walls don't work.
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墙不管用。
01:26
My thesis for us today is, instead of building walls
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所以我今天的主题是为了完成“安全”这个目标,
01:31
to create security, we need to build bridges.
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我们不建造墙,而建造桥。
01:34
This is a famous bridge in Europe.
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在欧洲有一个很著名的桥。
01:37
It's in Bosnia-Herzegovina.
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它在波黑。
01:39
It's the bridge over the Drina River,
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它在Drina河上,
01:41
the subject of a novel by Ivo Andrić,
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是作家Ivo Andric的一个小说的主题,
01:44
and it talks about how,
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这部小说讲述了
01:46
in that very troubled part of Europe and the Balkans,
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如何在欧洲和巴尔干地区最动荡的部分
01:50
over time there's been enormous building of walls.
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大量的墙被筑起。
01:54
More recently, in the last decade, we begin to see
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而最近,也就是在近十年,我们开始看到
01:57
these communities start, hesitatingly,
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这些地区开始,尽管有些犹豫不决,
02:01
to come together.
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逐渐融合在一起。
02:02
I would argue, again, open-source security
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我想再次重申,开放式安全
02:06
is about connecting the international,
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是关于联系国际的不同地区的,
02:09
the interagency, the private-public,
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跨部门的,私人的和公共的,
02:13
and lashing it together with strategic communication,
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并且把它们通过战略性沟通,
02:17
largely in social networks.
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在社交网上联系在一起。
02:19
So let me talk a little bit about why we need to do that,
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所以,接下来我将说一些为什么我们需要那么做,
02:24
because our global commons is under attack
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因为我们的共同目标正在受到威胁,
02:27
in a variety of ways,
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而且是多方面的,
02:29
and none of the sources of threat to the global commons
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同时没有一种威胁
02:33
will be solved by building walls.
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能被通过筑墙隔离解决。
02:36
Now, I'm a sailor, obviously.
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现在,很明显我是一个水手。
02:38
This is a ship, a liner, clipping through the Indian Ocean.
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有一个船在印度洋上航行。
02:43
What's wrong with this picture?
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这个照片有什么问题吗?
02:45
It's got concertina wire along the sides of it.
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在这个船上有蛇网环绕。
02:49
That's to prevent pirates from attacking it.
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这是用来抵御海盗的。
02:52
Piracy is a very active threat today
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海盗现在是一个非常主要的全球威胁。
02:55
around the world. This is in the Indian Ocean.
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这是只是在印度洋。
02:58
Piracy is also very active in the Strait of Malacca.
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海盗依然在马六甲海峡很猖狂,
03:02
It's active in the Gulf of Guinea.
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也在几内亚湾,
03:04
We see it in the Caribbean.
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在加勒比海地区。
03:06
It's a $10-billion-a-year discontinuity
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它在全球交通运输中每年造成了一百亿美元的
03:08
in the global transport system.
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损失。
03:12
Last year, at this time, there were 20 vessels,
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在去年的此刻,有20艘船,
03:16
500 mariners held hostage.
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500名船员被绑架为人质。
03:18
This is an attack on the global commons.
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这是一个对全球共同利益的威胁。
03:22
We need to think about how to address it.
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我们需要想出解决办法。
03:25
Let's shift to a different kind of sea,
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现在让我们转到另一种海洋,
03:27
the cyber sea.
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网络的海洋。
03:29
Here are photographs of two young men.
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这里有两个年轻人的照片。
03:33
At the moment, they're incarcerated.
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在此刻,他们被监禁着。
03:35
They conducted a credit card fraud that netted them
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他们做了一个信用卡诈骗案,
03:40
over 10 billion dollars.
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并且牟利超过一百亿美元。
03:44
This is part of cybercrime which is a $2-trillion-a-year
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这只是对全球经济造成两万亿美元损失的
03:49
discontinuity in the global economy.
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网络犯罪的一部分。
03:52
Two trillion a year.
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两万亿每年。
03:53
That's just under the GDP of Great Britain.
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这仅低于英国的国民生产总值(GDP).
03:57
So this cyber sea, which we know endlessly
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所以网络世界,一个我们深知
04:00
is the fundamental piece of radical openness,
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是由最根本的开放组成的地方,
04:04
is very much under threat as well.
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正在受到威胁。
04:08
Another thing I worry about in the global commons
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另一个我要担心的是
04:11
is the threat posed by trafficking,
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由于物流造成的威胁,
04:14
by the movement of narcotics, opium,
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也就是麻醉剂,鸦片等毒品
04:18
here coming out of Afghanistan through Europe
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从阿富汗穿过欧洲
04:22
over to the United States.
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到达美国的整个一条运输线。
04:23
We worry about cocaine
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我们担心从Andean Ridge(地名)北部
04:25
coming from the Andean Ridge north.
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运过来的可卡因。
04:28
We worry about the movement of illegal weapons
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我们担心非法武器的运输。
04:31
and trafficking. Above all, perhaps,
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但最重要的是,
04:33
we worry about human trafficking, and the awful cost of it.
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我们担心人力的运输,以及它的成本。
04:37
Trafficking moves largely at sea
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大多数运输是通过海洋的
04:40
but in other parts of the global commons.
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但也通过我们的共同利益。
04:42
This is a photograph, and I wish I could tell you
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这是一张照片,
04:47
that this is a very high-tech piece of US Navy gear
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通过它我想告诉你这是一个非常高科技的美国海军武器
04:52
that we're using to stop the trafficking.
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用来阻止物流的发生。
04:55
The bad news is,
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但坏消息是,
04:56
this is a semi-submersible run by drug cartels.
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这是一个贩毒组织的半潜水的设备。
05:02
It was built in the jungles of South America.
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它在南美热带雨林中被建造,
05:06
We caught it with that low-tech raft — (Laughter) —
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我们通过没有科技含量的筏子逮捕了它, (笑声)
05:11
and it was carrying six tons of cocaine.
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而它正装载着六吨的可卡因,
05:15
Crew of four. Sophisticated communications sweep.
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四个船员,精良的设备。
05:19
This kind of trafficking, in narcotics, in humans, in weapons,
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这种运送麻醉剂,人和武器
05:25
God forbid, in weapons of mass destruction,
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上帝禁止的,大规模杀伤性武器
05:27
is part of the threat to the global commons.
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就是我们共同利益的威胁的一部分。
05:30
And let's pull it together in Afghanistan today.
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现在让我们完整的看一下阿富汗的今天。
05:34
This is a field of poppies in Afghanistan.
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在阿富汗有一片罂粟花的,
05:37
Eighty to 90 percent of the world's poppy,
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全世界80%到90%的罂粟花,
05:41
opium and heroin, comes out of Afghanistan.
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鸦片和海洛因来自阿富汗。
05:44
We also see there, of course, terrorism.
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当然,我们也看到了恐怖组织。
05:47
This is where al Qaeda is staged from.
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这就是基地组织建立的地方。
05:49
We also see a very strong insurgency embedded there.
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我们看到了这里有一个很不稳定的局势。
05:54
So this terrorism concern is also part
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所以恐怖组织也是我们
05:57
of the global commons, and what we must address.
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面临的威胁的一部分,也是我们必须解决的。
06:01
So here we are, 21st century.
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所以,在21世纪,
06:05
We know our 20th-century tools are not going to work.
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我们知道我们20世纪的方法不管用。
06:08
What should we do?
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我们该怎么办?
06:11
I would argue that we will not deliver security
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我想说我们不能仅仅通过
06:16
solely from the barrel of a gun.
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枪支来保障安全。
06:18
We will not deliver security solely from the barrel of a gun.
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我们不能仅仅依靠枪支,
06:22
We will need the application of military force.
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我们需要军事力量的综合应用。
06:25
When we do it, we must do it well, and competently.
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当我们使用时,我们就必须使用好。
06:28
But my thesis is, open-source security is about international,
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但我所要说的是,开放式安全是关于国际的,
06:35
interagency, private-public connection pulled together
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跨部门的,私人和公共的联系,
06:39
by this idea of strategic communication on the Internet.
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通过互联网沟通而建立的。
06:45
Let me give you a couple of examples of how this works in a positive way.
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让我讲一个例子。
06:49
This is Afghanistan. These are Afghan soldiers.
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我们有阿富汗,有阿富汗的士兵,
06:53
They are all holding books.
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他们都拿着书。
06:56
You should say, "That's odd. I thought I read that
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你可能会说“这真奇怪,我想我曾读到过
07:00
this demographic, young men and women
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在这个地区绝大多数20,30多岁的年轻人
07:04
in their 20s and 30s, is largely illiterate in Afghanistan."
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都是不识字的。”
07:09
You would be correct.
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你也许是对的。
07:11
Eighty-five percent cannot read
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当他们进入安全部队的时候,
07:13
when they enter the security forces of Afghanistan.
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85%是不识字的。
07:16
Why? Because the Taliban withheld education
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为什么?因为塔利班
07:19
during the period of time in which these men and women
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在这些人该学习的时候不提供
07:22
would have learned to read.
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教育。
07:24
So the question is, so,
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所以问题是,
07:26
why are they all standing there holding books?
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为什么他们手里拿着书站在那里?
07:29
The answer is, we are teaching them to read
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答案是,我们在叫他们阅读,
07:33
in literacy courses by NATO
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通过北约组织的课程,
07:36
in partnership with private sector entities,
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通过和私人组织的合作,
07:39
in partnership with development agencies.
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通过和发展署的合作。
07:43
We've taught well over 200,000 Afghan Security Forces
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我们已经教了超过200000的阿富汗安全部队士兵
07:47
to read and write at a basic level.
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来进行最基本的读写。
07:50
When you can read and write in Afghanistan,
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当你能读和写的时候,
07:53
you will typically put a pen in your pocket.
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你就会在你的口袋里放一支笔。
07:56
At the ceremonies, when these young men and women
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在毕业典礼上,当这些人毕业时,
07:58
graduate, they take that pen with great pride,
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他们很骄傲的拿出笔,
08:02
and put it in their pocket.
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并放在他们的口袋里。
08:04
This is bringing together international
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这个举动把全世界
08:07
— there are 50 nations involved in this mission —
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——有五十个国家——
08:10
interagency — these development agencies —
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跨部门的力量
08:13
and private-public, to take on this kind of security.
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私人和公共资源都联系到了一起,来进行这种安全的建立。
08:17
Now, we are also teaching them combat skills, of course,
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现在,我们当然也教他们格斗技巧,
08:20
but I would argue, open-source security
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但我想说,开放式安全
08:23
means connecting in ways that create
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意味着为创造更持久的安全
08:26
longer lasting security effect.
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而联系各个力量。
08:29
Here's another example.
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这里是另一个例子。
08:31
This is a US Navy warship.
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这是一个美国海军战舰。
08:34
It's called the Comfort.
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叫做Comfort(安慰)号。
08:36
There's a sister ship called the Mercy.
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他有一个姊妹舰,叫做Mercy(仁慈)号。
08:39
They are hospital ships.
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他们是友好的战舰。
08:41
This one, the Comfort, operates throughout
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安慰号在
08:43
the Caribbean and the coast of South America
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加勒比海和南美洲的海岸
08:47
conducting patient treatments.
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进行病人的治疗。
08:49
On a typical cruise, they'll do 400,000 patient treatments.
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通常,他会进行400000个治疗,
08:54
It is crewed not strictly by military
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船员不是严格的部队人员,
08:57
but by a combination of humanitarian organizations:
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而是很多人道主义组织,
09:01
Operation Hope, Project Smile.
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比如“希望项目”,“微笑工程”。
09:05
Other organizations send volunteers.
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其他组织送来志愿者。
09:08
Interagency physicians come out.
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其他部门的医生也来了。
09:10
They're all part of this.
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他们都是这个项目的一部分。
09:13
To give you one example of the impact this can have,
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举个例子来说明这个项目的影响力,
09:15
this little boy, eight years old,
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这个小孩,8岁,
09:19
walked with his mother two days
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和他的妈妈走了两天
09:22
to come to the eye clinic put on by the Comfort.
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来到安慰号上的眼科诊所。
09:25
When he was fitted, over his extremely myopic eyes,
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当他被治好他的重度近视是,
09:30
he suddenly looked up and said,
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他突然抬头,然后说:
09:33
"Mama, veo el mundo."
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“Mama, veo el mundo.(当地语言)”
09:37
"Mom, I see the world."
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“妈妈,我看到世界了。”
09:40
Multiply this by 400,000 patient treatments,
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把这个乘以400000,也就是治疗数目,
09:43
this private-public collaboration with security forces,
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这个私人和公共的合作,同时融合了安全力量的项目,
09:48
and you begin to see the power
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开始显现它的力量,
09:50
of creating security in a very different way.
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来以一个很不同的方式创造安全。
09:54
Here you see baseball players.
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这张照片是棒球运动员。
09:58
Can you pick out the two US Army soldiers
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你能在其中找出
10:02
in this photograph?
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两名美国部队的士兵吗?
10:04
They are the two young men on either side
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他们是每侧最边上的两位。
10:06
of these young boys. This is part of a series
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这是棒球诊所的一部分,
10:09
of baseball clinics, where we have explored collaboration
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在这里我们尝试
10:13
between Major League Baseball,
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棒球联赛,
10:15
the Department of State,
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国务院,
10:16
who sets up the diplomatic piece of this,
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(它建起了外交基础)
10:19
military baseball players, who are real soldiers
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在军队中的棒球运动员,
10:23
with real skills but participate in this mission,
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也就是那些能真正上战场的人,之间的合作,
10:27
and they put on clinics
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并且他们把这种诊所
10:29
throughout Latin America and the Caribbean,
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开到了拉丁美洲和加勒比地区,
10:31
in Honduras, in Nicaragua,
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开到了洪都拉斯,开到了尼加拉瓜,
10:34
in all of the Central American and Caribbean nations
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开到了所有中美洲和加勒比的
10:39
where baseball is so popular,
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棒球很流行国家,
10:41
and it creates security.
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而且它创造了安全感。
10:43
It shows role models to young men and women
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他为年轻人建立了关于健身和生活的榜样,
10:45
about fitness and about life that I would argue
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而且我想说
10:49
help create security for us.
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这些理念帮助创造了安全。
10:53
Another aspect of this partnership
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这个合作的另一部分是
10:56
is in disaster relief.
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灾后救援与后续工作。
10:58
This is a US Air Force helicopter participating
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这是一个美国空军的直升机,
11:01
after the tsunami in 2004 which killed 250,000 people.
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它参加了2004年一个杀死250000人的海啸的救援。
11:08
In each of these major disasters — the tsunami in 2004,
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在所有的大灾难中——2004年海啸,250000死,
11:13
250,000 dead, the Kashmiri earthquake in Pakistan, 2005,
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2005年巴基斯坦地震,
11:20
85,000 dead,
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85000人死亡,
11:22
the Haitian earthquake, about 300,000 dead,
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海地地震,300000人死亡,
11:26
more recently the awful earthquake-tsunami combination
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还有最近的对于日本机器核工业的
11:31
which struck Japan and its nuclear industry —
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地震海啸双重打击——
11:35
in all of these instances, we see partnerships
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在所有这些例子中,我们看到了
11:38
between international actors,
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国际间,
11:41
interagency, private-public working with security forces
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跨部门,公私结合的合作,这个合作与安全力量同时
11:45
to respond to this kind of natural disaster.
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响应这种自然灾害。
11:49
So these are examples of this idea of open-source security.
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所以这些都是我们说的开放式安全的例子。
11:53
We tie it together, increasingly, by doing things like this.
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我们结合在一起,来共同完成这样的事情。
11:58
Now, you're looking at this thinking, "Ah, Admiral,
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现在你看到这个,应该在想,“啊,船长,
12:01
these must be sea lanes of communication,
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这些一定是通信电缆,
12:04
or these might be fiber optic cables."
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或者是光线。”
12:07
No. This is a graphic of the world according to Twitter.
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不,这是一个Twitter(国外微博网站)公司发的世界地图。
12:12
Purple are tweets. Green are geolocation.
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紫色是微博,绿色是地点,
12:19
White is the synthesis.
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白色是结合。
12:21
It's a perfect evocation of that great population survey,
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这很能让人想到人口普查,
12:25
the six largest nations in the world in descending order:
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六个人口最多的国家依次是:
12:28
China, India, Facebook, the United States,
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中国,印度,Facebook(国外社交网络),美国,
12:31
Twitter and Indonesia. (Laughter)
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Twitter,和印尼。 (笑声)
12:35
Why do we want to get in these nets?
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我们要这些网干什么?
12:37
Why do we want to be involved?
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我们为什么想要在其中?
12:39
We talked earlier about the Arab Spring,
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我们之前讨论过阿拉伯春天组织,
12:41
and the power of all this.
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以及它的力量。
12:42
I'll give you another example,
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我再举一个例子,
12:44
and it's how you move this message.
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是关于信息如何传播的。
12:46
I gave a talk like this in London a while back
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我在伦敦发表一个像这个的演讲。
12:48
about this point. I said, as I say to all of you,
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我说,我对你们说,
12:52
I'm on Facebook. Friend me.
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我在Facebook上,加我好友吧。
12:54
Got a little laugh from the audience.
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观众在笑。
12:56
There was an article which was run by AP, on the wire.
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这是AP(美联社)的一篇文章。
13:01
Got picked up in two places in the world:
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世界上有两个地方,
13:04
Finland and Indonesia.
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芬兰和印尼,
13:06
The headline was: NATO Admiral Needs Friends.
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标题是:北约舰队司令需要好友。
13:10
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
13:11
Thank you. (Applause)
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谢谢你们。 (掌声)
13:14
Which I do. (Laughter)
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我会做。 (笑声)
13:16
And the story was a catalyst,
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这个故事是一个催化剂,
13:19
and the next morning I had hundreds
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明天早上我就会有上百个
13:22
of Facebook friend requests
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Facebook好友请求,
13:23
from Indonesians and Finns,
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来自印尼和芬兰,
13:26
mostly saying, "Admiral, we heard you need a friend,
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大多数都会说:“司令,我们听说你需要好友,
13:29
and oh, by the way, what is NATO?" (Laughter)
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哦,还有,NATO(北约)是什么?” (笑声)
13:32
So ... (Laughter)
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所以 (笑声)
13:34
Yeah, we laugh, but this is how we move the message,
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是的,我们笑了,但这就是我们如何传播信息,
13:39
and moving that message is how we connect
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也就是我们如何把
13:41
international, interagency, private-public,
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国际,不同部门,私人和公共,
13:44
and these social nets to help create security.
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以及那些社会网联系起来来创造安全。
13:48
Now, let me hit a somber note.
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现在,让我说一个严肃的消息。
13:51
This is a photograph of a brave British soldier.
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这是一个勇敢的英国士兵的照片。
13:55
He's in the Scots Guards.
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他在苏格兰卫队,
13:57
He's standing the watch in Helmand,
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正在Helmand站岗,
13:59
in southern Afghanistan.
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在阿富汗南部。
14:01
I put him here to remind us,
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我把他放出来就是想提醒我们,
14:04
I would not want anyone to leave the room thinking
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我不想让任何人离开这间屋子,抱着
14:07
that we do not need capable, competent militaries
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“我们不需要军事部队”
14:11
who can create real military effect.
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的想法。
14:14
That is the core of who we are and what we do,
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这正是我们在做的,
14:18
and we do it to protect freedom, freedom of speech,
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我们做这个事情来保障自由,言论自由,
14:22
all the things we treasure in our societies.
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和其他所有我们在社会中珍视的。
14:25
But, you know, life is not an on-and-off switch.
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但你知道,生活不是开关。
14:29
You don't have to have a military that is either
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我们没有要么在战争,要么在兵营的
14:31
in hard combat or is in the barracks.
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军事力量。
14:35
I would argue life is a rheostat.
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我认为生活是一个可变电阻器,
14:40
You have to dial it in,
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你需要调一个数值,
14:42
and as I think about how we create security
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并且正像我认为我们该如何在21世纪制造安全一样,
14:46
in this 21st century, there will be times
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我们会需要
14:48
when we will apply hard power in true war and crisis,
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在真正的战争和危机中使用真正强硬的力量,
14:53
but there will be many instances,
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但会有很多时候,
14:55
as we've talked about today,
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就像我们已经讨论的,
14:57
where our militaries can be part of creating
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我们的部队可以使
15:00
21st-century security, international,
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21世纪安全,也就是国际,
15:04
interagency, private-public,
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跨部门,公私结合,
15:07
connected with competent communication.
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的安全模式的一部分,通过沟通来结合起来。
15:11
I would close by saying that we heard earlier today
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在结束时,我想说在今天早些时候
15:16
about Wikipedia. I use Wikipedia all the time
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听到的关于维基百科的一些东西。
15:20
to look up facts, and as all of you appreciate,
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我经常用维基百科查一些东西,就像你所知道的,
15:23
Wikipedia is not created by 12 brilliant people
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维基百科不是靠12个聪明的人
15:27
locked in a room writing articles.
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把自己关在屋子里写文章建立的。
15:30
Wikipedia, every day, is tens of thousands of people
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维基百科是靠每天数万人
15:33
inputting information, and every day millions of people
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的更新,数百万人的提取信息
15:38
withdrawing that information.
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而建立的。
15:40
It's a perfect image for the fundamental point
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这完美的说明了
15:44
that no one of us is as smart as all of us thinking together.
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没有一个人能比共同思考更聪明。
15:48
No one person, no one alliance, no one nation,
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没有一个人,没有一个联盟,没有一个国家,
15:52
no one of us is as smart as all of us thinking together.
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能有我们共同思考更睿智。
15:57
The vision statement of Wikipedia is very simple:
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维基百科的宣言很简单:
16:01
a world in which every human being can freely share
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创建一个能人人自由共享
16:04
in the sum of all knowledge.
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所有知识的世界。
16:06
My thesis for you is that by combining international,
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所以,我想说,通过结合国际,
16:10
interagency, private-public, strategic communication,
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多部门,公私力量,战略通信在一起,
16:15
together, in this 21st century,
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在21世纪,
16:18
we can create the sum of all security.
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我们能创造共同的安全。
16:21
Thank you. (Applause)
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谢谢 (掌声)
16:24
Thank you very much. Thank you. Thank you. (Applause)
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非常感谢。 (掌声)
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