John Gerzema: The post-crisis consumer

翻译人员: Jason Hsiang 校对人员: zhengyan lu

13万亿的财富

Thirteen trillion dollars in wealth

has evaporated over the course of the last two years.

在过去的两年间里蒸发殆尽。

We've questioned the future of capitalism.

我们质疑过资本主义的未来。

我们也对金融业产生过怀疑。

We've questioned the financial industry.

We've looked at our government oversight.

我们检视我们的政府的疏忽。

We've questioned where we're going.

我们对未来的方向感到迷茫。

And yet, at the same time,

然而，与此同时，危机的到来不仅仅意味着

this very well may be a seminal moment in American history,

美国正处在历史上的关键时刻，

an opportunity for the consumer to actually take control and guide us

对消费者而言，更是一种机遇。

他们能够真正的掌握主动权，

to a new trajectory in America.

并且带领我们进入一个新的发展轨道。

我们把它称之为一场“大松绑“。

I'm calling this The Great Unwind.

(Laughter)

And the idea is a simple, simple idea,

其实这本身是一个非常简单的理念，

which is the fact that the consumer has moved from a state of anxiety

它描述了这样一个事实，

即消费者正从过去焦虑不安的状态向付诸行动逐渐发生转变。

to action.

Consumers who represent 72 percent of the GDP of America

占美国国内生产总值72%的消费群体

事实上已经开始行动了，

have actually started, just like banks and just like businesses,

正如银行和企业

to de-leverage, to unwind their leverage in daily life,

所采取的一系列“去杠杆化”措施，

在日常生活中，消费者们

to remove themselves from the liability and risk

让自己从负债和风险中解脱出来，

that presents itself as they move forward.

继续前行。

So, to understand this -- and I'm going to stress this --

因此，为了便于理解，我想要强调，

消费者们并没有退缩，

it's not about the consumer being in retreat.

他们被赋予了权力。

The consumer is empowered.

To understand this, we'll step back and look at what's happened

为了更清楚的阐明我的观点，让我们往回走

看看过去的一年半时间里发生了什么。

over the last year and a half.

So if you've been gone, this is the CliffsNotes

如果你也同样经历了这一切的话，

我下面将要讲述的便是最简单的摘要。可以吗？

on what's happened in the economy.

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Unemployment up. Housing values down. Equity markets down.

失业率~上升，房产价格~下降，资本市场~猛跌

Commodity prices are like this.

商品价格这样变化。

If you're a mom trying to manage a budget,

如果你是你个负责预算的母亲，

and oil was 150 dollars a barrel last summer,

去年夏天的汽油价格是每桶150美元，

and it's somewhere between 50 and 70,

而现在则是介于50到70美元之间，

do you plan vacations?

你还打算去度假吗？你会怎样买？

How do you buy?

What's your strategy in your household? Will the bailout work?

你的家庭策略是什么？

政府援助会起作用吗？我们面临的问题有国债，底特律，

We have national debt, Detroit, currency valuations, health care --

货币估价，医疗保健等等。

all these issues facing us.

你把他们放在一起，混合成一碗法式鱼肉汤。

You put them all together, mix them up in a bouillabaisse,

and you have consumer confidence that's basically a ticking time bomb.

另外，你还拥有消费者信心，而它基本就是一个滴答作响的定时炸弹。

In fact, let's go back and look at what caused this crisis,

其实我们应该回头看看是什么导致了这场危机；

because the consumer, all of us, in our daily lives,

因为，在日常生活中，所有消费者

actually contributed a large part to the problem.

实际上都极大程度上促成了这一问题的产生。

This is something I call the 50-20 paradox.

这就是我称之为 50/20悖论 的东西。

我们花费了50年

It took us 50 years

to reach annual savings ratings of almost 10 percent.

来达到年储蓄率接近10%的水平。

50年。

Fifty years.

Do you know what this was right here? This was World War II.

你知道这个地方是啥时候吗？

这儿是二战期间。你知道为什么储蓄如此高吗？

Do you know why savings was so high?

There was nothing to buy, unless you wanted to buy some rivets.

因为没有任何东西可以买，除非你想买铆钉。对吗？

What happened, though, over the course of the last 20 years,

那么，过去20年发生了什么

we went from a 10 percent savings rate to a negative savings rate.

使得储蓄率从10%下降到负值？

因为我们大肆享受：我们买超大的汽车，

Because we binged.

We bought extra-large cars, supersized everything,

一切超大型的东西；我们似乎得了坐立不安综合症并为之买单。

we bought remedies for restless leg syndrome.

All these things together basically created a factor

所有这些加一起，大体上就是

导致消费者进入危机的原因，

where the consumer drove us headlong into the crisis

我们如此仓促，手足无措。

that we face today.

在过去大概15年的区间内，

The personal debt-to-income ratio basically went from 65 to 135 percent

个人负债与收入比率

大体上从65%增长到135%。

in the span of about 15 years.

So consumers got over-leveraged.

于是消费者们过度杠杆化了，

And of course our banks did as well, as did our federal government.

当然我们的银行和联邦政府也是如此。

This is an absolutely staggering chart.

这是一副十足惊人的图表，

It shows leverage, trended out from 1919 to 2009.

它展示了从1919到2009年间杠杆的变化趋势。

你在最后面看到的是一整个现象，

And what you end up seeing is the whole phenomenon

that we are actually stepping forth and basically leveraging

那就是，我们实际上在举债，

我们在提前透支

future education, future children in our households.

未来教育及未来孩子们的花费。

So if you look at this in the context of visualizing the bailout,

如果你在政府救援背景下想想这个问题，

what you can see is, if you stack up dollar bills,

你将看到的是，如果一个人堆积美元钞票，

first of all, 360,000 dollars

首先是360,000美元

is about the size of a five-foot-four guy.

-大致相当于一个5.4英寸人的高度

But if you stack it up, you see this amazing, staggering amount of dollars

但是，如果将钱堆积起来，你看到的仅仅是

数量惊人的美元被投入（金融）系统

that have been put into the system to fund and bail us out.

以资助和援救我们。

So this is the first 315 billion.

这就是最初的3150亿美元。

But I read this fact the other day,

前不久，我看到这样一个事实：

that one trillion seconds equals 32,000 years.

一万亿秒相当于32000年。

So if you think about that,

你想想这种情形：

the context, the casualness with which we talk about

我们在多么轻松地谈论金钱，这儿一万亿，那儿一万亿。

trillion-dollar bailout here and trillion there,

we are stacking ourselves up for long-term leverage.

我们在堆积一个长期的杠杆。

但是，消费者开始行动了，

However, consumers have moved.

They are taking responsibility.

他们在承担责任。

我们开到储蓄率在提高

What we're seeing is an uptake in the savings rate.

In fact, 11 straight months of savings have happened

事实上，自从危机发生以来

已经有连续11个月的储蓄。

since the beginning of the crisis.

We're working our way back up to that 10 percent.

我们正朝着恢复储蓄率到10%的方向前进。

另外值得注意的是

Also, remarkably, in the fourth quarter,

第四季度的花费降到62年来的最低点，

spending dropped to its lowest level in 62 years --

almost a 3.7 percent decline.

几乎下降了3.7%。

Visa now reports that more people are using debit cards than credit cards.

维萨公司（Visa）报告说，相比信用卡而言

更多的人在使用借记卡。

So we're starting to pay for things with money that we have.

我们开始用手头的钱买东西，

And we're starting to be much more careful about how we save and invest.

我们开始谨小慎微地对待，

存款和投资。

But that's not really the whole story,

但那并不是整个故事，

because this has also been a dramatic time of transformation.

因为这种转变所花的时间也是相当长的，

And you've got to admit, over the last year and a half,

你不得不承认，在过去一年半中

消费者们做了些十分奇怪的事情，

consumers have been doing some weird things.

我们所经历的真的很奇怪。

It's pretty staggering, what we've lived through.

If you take into account that 80 percent of all Americans

如果大家考虑到

80%的美国人出生在二战以后，

were born after World War II,

this was essentially our Depression.

这就绝对是属于我们的大萧条。

And so, as a result, some crazy things have happened.

同时，一些疯狂的事情发生了。

I'll give you some examples.

我会给大家举些例子，比如牙医，

Let's talk about dentists, vasectomies, guns and shark attacks.

输精管切除书术，枪支和鲨鱼攻击。好吗？

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Dentists report molars -- people grinding their teeth,

牙医报告说人们有磨牙。

磨牙的人去见牙医，

coming in and reporting that they've had stress.

说他们感到有压力。

So there's an increase in people having to have their fillings replaced.

于是，越来越多的人不得不替换他们补牙所用的材料。

Gun sales, according to the FBI, who does background checks,

负责检查背景的联邦调查局说

七月份以来，持枪数和枪支销售上涨了几乎25%。

are up almost 25 percent since January.

Vasectomies are up 48 percent, according to the Cornell Institute.

又据康奈尔研究院

输精管切除手术增多了48%。

And lastly, but a very good point,

最后，很好的一点

hopefully not related to the former point I just made,

希望和我们前面提到的一点没关系♫

which is that shark attacks are at their lowest level from 2003.

那就是，鲨鱼袭人事件也处于2003年以来的最低水平。

有人知道原因吗？

Does anybody know why?

(Laughter)

No one's at the beach.

没有人去海滩。所以任何事物都有光明的一面。

So there's a bright side to everything.

But seriously, what we see happening,

不过严肃点说，正在发生的事情

and the reason I want to stress that the consumer is not in retreat,

以及我想强调消费者并未撤退的原因是：

这对消费者而言是一个巨大的机遇。

is that this is a tremendous opportunity

消费者将我们带入衰退，

for the consumer who drove us into this recession

to lead us right back out.

但也能借此机遇引导我们走出衰退。

What I mean by that is we can move from mindless consumption

我的意思是，我们可以从不假思索的消费

to mindful consumption.

变为深思熟虑的消费。对吗？

Right?

(Applause)

如果你想想过去30年，

If you think about the last three decades,

消费者从90年代的信奉市场知识

the consumer has moved from savvy about marketing in the '90s,

to gathering all these amazing social and search tools in this decade.

变化到近十年的收集各种社会工具和搜索工具。

But the one thing holding them back is the ability to discriminate.

但是，有一样东西阻挡了他们的前进，那就是判断能力。

By restricting their demand,

消费者因限制了自己的需求，

consumers can actually align their values with their spending,

而能让他们的价值取向与消费相结合

and drive capitalism and business to not just be about more,

并驱动资产主义和商业

到不只更多而是更好的境界。

but to be about better.

接下来我会解释这一点。

We're going to explain that right now.

Based on Y&R's BrandAsset Valuator,

根据Y&R的品牌资产评估机构，

VML 和 Young & Rubicam的专有工具，

proprietary tool of VML and Young & Rubicam,

we set out to understand what's been happening in the crisis

我们开始了解到金融危机

在消费者市场引发的事情。

with the consumer marketplace.

We found a couple of really interesting things.

我们发现了一些相当有趣的事情。

We're going to go through four value shifts

我们研究了4种价值转变，

that we see driving new consumer behaviors,

这些变化引导我们找到新的消费者行为，

that offer new management principles.

也提供了新的管理法则。

The first cultural value shift we see

第一个文化价值转变是，

is this tendency toward something we call "liquid life."

生活有种转向所谓液态生活的趋势。

This is the movement

美国人对成功的定义由资产的多寡

from Americans defining their success on having things

变为是否拥有液态生活。

to having liquidity,

because the less excess that you have around you,

因为，一个人周围的过度行为越少，

他的行动速度会越发灵敏。

the more nimble and fleet of foot you are.

As a result, déclassé consumption is in.

低调消费也因此流行，

Déclassé consumption is the whole idea that spending money frivolously

低调消费是指盲目的消费

似乎与流行趋势不相符。

makes you look a little bit anti-fashion.

The management principle is dollars and cents.

这个管理法则是金钱，

那么,先来看看一些低调消费

So let's look at some examples of this déclassé consumption

脱离价值的例子。

that falls out of this value.

The first thing is, something must be happening

第一件事是，P. Diddy（吹牛老爹）宣称不再穿戴华丽闪亮的服装时，

when P. Diddy vows to tone down his bling.

一定有什么事发生了。

(Laughter)

（xiaosheng）

But seriously, we also have this phenomenon

但是严格地说

这种现象也发生麦迪逊大街和别的地方，

on Madison Avenue and in other places,

人们走在奢侈精品街上，

where people are actually walking out of luxury boutiques

手里拿着普通无名的纸袋，

with ordinary, generic paper bags to hide the brand purchases.

里面却放着各种名牌物品。

We see high-end haggling in fashion today,

今天我们看到上流社会的高价议价，

high-end haggling for luxury and real estate.

豪宅和不动产的高价议价。

We also see just a relaxing of ego,

我们也只看到一个放松的自我

and sort of a dismantling of artifice.

以及拆穿各种诡计。

这个故事发生在游艇俱乐部，

This is a story on the yacht club that's all basically blue collar.

它的成员基本上都是蓝领阶层，

Blue-collar yacht club -- where you can join,

是的，蓝领游艇俱乐部,你可以参加这个俱乐部，

但成为会员的条件是

but you've got to work in the boatyard as condition of membership.

你必须在船坞上工作。

We also see the trend toward tourism that's a little bit more low-key:

我们也看到未来趋势朝向

低调旅游发展,对吧?

agritourism -- going to vineyards and going to farms.

农业旅游，人们走入葡萄园和农田。

And then we also see this movement forward from dollars and cents.

然后，我们也看到价值观已不再但是关于金钱。

What businesses can do to connect with these new mindsets

企业能联系这些新观念去做什么

是相当有趣的。

is really interesting.

A couple things that are kind of cool.

有些事儿非常酷，

One is that Frito-Lay figured out this liquidity thing with their consumer.

其一是，Frito-Lay（知名食品公司）查觉了

他们顾客的流动性。

They found their consumer had more money at the beginning of the month,

他们发现消费者在月初有较多的钱，

而月底则较少,因此他们所做的

less at the end of the month.

就是开始改变他们的包装。

So they started to change their packaging:

月初销售的包装比较大,

larger packs at the beginning of the month,

月底产品的包装比较小。

smaller packaging at the end of the month.

同样有趣的是，旧金山巨人队（San Francisco Giants职业棒球队）

Really interestingly, too, was the San Francisco Giants.

他们采用了动态定价，

They've just instituted dynamic pricing.

It takes into account everything from the pitcher match-ups,

因此,在制定票价时，他们将各种因素考虑进来，

从投手配合到天气

to the weather, to the team records,

in setting prices for the consumer.

再到球队纪录。

Another quick example of these types of movements is the rise of Zynga.

另一个的例子就是Zynga（开发"开心农场"的游戏厂商）

的快速崛起。

Zynga的崛起基于消费者

Zynga has risen on the consumer's desire

不愿定期支付固定成本的欲望。

to not want to be locked in to fixed cost.

Again, this theme is about variable cost, variable living.

再一次，主题是变动成本和变动生活。

因此,小额支付也变成巨大的负担，

So micro-payments have become huge.

最后,一些人使用Hulu（免费网络电视）

And lastly, some people are using Hulu

as a device to get rid of their cable bill.

实际上把它当作逃避有线电视账单的设备。

So, really clever ideas there that are being taken ahold of

因此,真正聪明的想法

似乎开始被市场采用,而商人们也开始能理解。

and that marketers are starting to understand.

第二个价值观是

The second of the four values is this movement toward

趋向重视道德及公平竞争。

ethics and fair play.

We see that play itself out with empathy and respect.

我们透过道德和尊重监视竞争。

The consumer is demanding it.

消费者需要这样，

And, as a result, businesses must provide not only value,

也因此,企业不只要提供

价值更须提供价值观。

but values.

Increasingly, consumers are looking at the culture of the company,

渐渐地，在市场中寻找产品时，

消费者开始留意公司文化。

at their conduct in the marketplace.

So we see with empathy and respect

因此,我们透过道德与尊重所看到的,很多真实有希望的东西

lots of really hopeful things come out of this recession.

已经从经济衰退中走出来。

下面是一些例子“

I'll give you a few examples.

One is the rise toward communities and neighborhoods,

一个是社区和街坊的崛起

和人们更强调邻居是后备支持系统。

and increased emphasis on your neighbors as your support system.

Also, a wonderful by-product of a really lousy thing,

此外,在失业清况如此严重的情形下,

which has been unemployment,

一个很好的副产品产生了，

is a rise in volunteerism that's been noted in our country.

那就是更多人投身历来为美国所重视的志愿工作。

我们也看到这样的一个现象-

We also see the phenomenon -- some of you may have "boomerang kids" --

你们中的一些可能有”赖家孩子” （boomerang kids）

these are "boomerang alumni,"

这些也是返校校友，

where universities are actually reconnecting with alumni

大学实际上会会再联系毕业校友，

以帮助在校生们找工作,分享技能及进行在职训练。

and helping them with jobs, sharing skills and retraining.

We also talked about character and professionalism.

我们也谈论到人格和专业特质，

We had this miracle on the Hudson in New York City in January,

今年一月时，纽约的Hudson发生了这样的奇迹

and suddenly Sully has become a key name on BabyCenter.

突然间Sully这个名字在婴儿中心变得很重要 （sully，玷污名声）

(Laughter)

（笑声）

So, from a value and values standpoint,

那么,从价值及价值观的角度来看，

what companies can do is connect in lots of different ways.

公司能做的是通过各种方式联系消费者。

Microsoft is doing something wonderful.

微软做了一些很棒的事，

They are actually vowing to retrain two million Americans with IT training,

他们宣步将对2百万美国人做信息在职训练，

using their existing infrastructure to do something good.

使用既有的设备去做一些好事。

Also, a really interesting company is GORE-TEX.

另一个有趣的公司Gore-Tex

GORE-TEX is all about personal accountability

Gore-Tex强调个人责任感，

无论是管理者还是员工。

of their management and their employees,

to the point where they really kind of shun the idea of bosses.

以至于他们几乎舍弃老板与下属的概念。

But they also talk about the fact that their executives --

但他们也谈论到这样一个事实，

他们的执行力和所有费用支出

all of their expense reports are put onto their company intranet

都会放在公司内部网络供每个员工观看。

for everyone to see.

Complete transparency.

完全透明化

Think twice before you have that bottle of wine.

三思而后行

(Laughter)

The third of the four laws of post-crisis consumerism

后危机消费的第三个法则是

is about durable living.

永续生存。

We're seeing in our data that consumers are realizing

数据显示消费者意识到

this is a marathon, not a sprint.

这是一个马拉松而非短跑比赛。

They're digging in and looking for ways to extract value

他们开始认真,每一次购物

他们都有发掘出最大价值。

out of every purchase they make.

Witness the fact that Americans are holding on to their cars

注意这一事实：美国人持有他们汽车

的时间比以前要长。

longer than ever before: 9.4 years on average, in March.

在今年三月创下历史纪录，平均9.4年

A record.

We also see the fact that libraries have become a huge resource for America.

我们也看到图书馆已经变成

美国人一个巨大的信息源。

Did you know that 68 percent of Americans now carry a library card?

你知道现在有68%的美国人

持有图书馆卡吗?

The highest percentage ever in our nation's history.

在我们国家历史最高纪录。

So what you see in this trend is also the accumulation of knowledge.

因此,这种趋势也可看作

知识的累积。

Continuing education is up.

继续学习成为更多人的选择。

Everything is focused on betterment, training,

每件事都强调改善、训练

development and moving forward.

发展及进步。

We also see a big DIY movement.

我们也看到明显的DIY趋势。

I was fascinated to learn that 30 percent of all homes in America

我很高兴了解到那些30%

自己动手建房的美国人，

are actually built by owners.

That includes cottages and the like,

包括农舍小屋诸如此类的,达到30%

but 30 percent.

People are getting their hands dirty, rolling up their sleeves.

这样，人们卷起柚子,弄脏双手，

学习这些技术。

They want these skills.

We see it with the phenomenon of raising backyard hens, chickens and ducks.

我们看到他们在后院饲养

母鸡、小鸡和鸭子,当你计算经济成本时，

And when you work out the math, they say it doesn't work,

他们回答那不重要,重点是原则，

but the principle is there;

原则就是关于持续发展和自给自足。

it's about being sustainable and taking care of yourself.

Then we look at the High Line in New York City,

我们再看看纽约市的High Line长廊式公园

an excellent use of reimagining existing infrastructure

一个很棒的再利用废弃设施

的案例。这也为

for something good,

which is a brand-new park in New York City.

纽约市构建了一个崭新的公园。

So what brands can do, and companies, is pay dividends to consumers,

因此,品牌和公司能做的是

分红给消费者。

be a brand that lasts,

做一个长期品牌，

offer transparency,

提供透明度,承诺物超所值。

promise you're going to be there beyond today's sale.

最佳的例子是Patagonia

Perfect example of that is Patagonia.

Patagonia's "Footprint Chronicles"

Patagonia的环保足迹记事

basically goes through and tracks every product they make,

基本上追踪每件产品的生产流程，

and gives you social responsibility,

以给予消费者社会责任

and helps you understand the ethics behind the product they make.

并帮助消费者了解每件产品背后的

社会伦理道德。

Another great example is Fidelity.

另一个很棒的例子是富达证券 Fidelity

Rather than instant cash-back rewards on your credit or debit purchases,

他们并不依信用卡或现金卡消费回馈现金，

this is about 529 rewards for your student education.

而是提供529助学奖励金

以作为学生教育补助。

Or the interesting company Sunrun.

或另一个有趣的公司SunRun

I love this company.

我喜欢这间公司,他们提供一个集合式产品，

They've created a consumer collective

给家庭安置太阳能面板，

where they put solar panels on households

and create a consumer-based utility,

并创造以消费者为主的公用事业。

where the electricity they generate

他们再将产生的电力

is basically pumped back out into the marketplace.

卖给市场。

这就是消费者驱动的互助。

So it's a consumer-driven co-op.

The fourth post-crisis consumerism that we see

因此，第四种金融危机后的消费主义

是回归信任圈的趋势。

is this movement about "return to the fold."

It's incredibly important right now.

这点非常重要。

Trust is not parceled out, as we all know.

我们都知道,信任无法被分配，

It's now about connecting to your communities,

现在信任是关于连接你的小区、

connecting to your social networks.

连接你的社会网络。

In my book, I talked about the fact

在我的书中谈论到，

that 72 percent of people trust what other people say

72%的人相信其他人

about a brand or a company,

对品牌和公司的介绍,只有15%的人相信广告。

versus 15 percent on advertising.

因此,从这个角度讲，

So in that respect, cooperative consumerism has really taken off.

互助消费主义已经开始发展，

This is about consumers working together to get what they want

消费者一起合作

去得到他们从市场无法得到的东西。

out of the marketplace.

先快速地看几个例子：

Let's look at a couple of quick examples.

手工运动的力量很强大。

The artisanal movement is huge:

everything about locally derived products and services,

那就是就近获得产品和服务

supporting your local neighborhoods,

以支持本地社区，

whether it's cheeses, wines and other products.

无论是奶酪、酒还是其他产品。

Also this rise of local currencies.

因此本地货币也出现并发展。

Realizing that it's difficult to get loans in this environment,

意识到在这种环境下很难获得融资，

人们开始和那些信赖的人做生意，

you're doing business with people you trust

在他们熟悉的地方性市场。

in your local markets.

So this rise of local currency is another really interesting phenomenon.

因此,地区货币的流通

是另外有趣的现象。

And then they did a recent report I thought was fascinating.

然后他们做了一个报告，

这个报告很吸引人。

They actually started, in certain communities in the United States,

事实上，他们已经开始在美国的几个小区行动，

开始公布人们的电力使用。

to publish people's electricity usage.

And what they found out is when that was available for public record,

他们发现人们见到使用数据后，

the people's electricity usage in those communities dropped.

这些社区的电力使用量降低。

Then we also look at the idea of cow-pooling,

接下来,再看看合资买牛的构想，

which is the whole phenomenon of consumers organizing together

这个现象完全是

消费者自己组织行动，

to buy meat from organic farms, that they know is safe and controlled

去那些他们知道安全可控的农场购买肉类；

这样他们总能掌握相关的信息。

in the way that they want it to be controlled.

And then there's this other really interesting movement in California,

还有一个真正有趣的趋势

发生在加洲,是有关于胡萝卜族的。

which is about carrot mobs.

The traditional thing would be to boycott, right? Have a stick.

传统的方法是去联合抵制购买,对吧?

采用惩罚的方式?那为什么不用奖励的方式呢?

Well, why not have a carrot?

这些胡萝卜族组织集中他们的资源

So these are consumers organizing, pooling their resources

to incentify companies to do good.

去鼓励商家去做好事。

And then we look at what companies can do.

然后让我们来看看企业能做些什么。

This is all the opportunity about being a community organizer.

到处都有机会去成为社群组织者，

You have to realize that you can't fight and control this.

你必须意识到你不能对抗和控制它。

You actually need to organize it.

你实际上需要去组织它。

You need to harness it. You need to give it meaning.

你必须驾驭它,必须赋予它意义。

And there's lots of really interesting examples here.

这里有很多有趣的实际案例

可供我们参考。

First is just the rise of the fact that Zagat's has actually moved out of

第一个是愈发明显的现象，

Zagat的业务实际上已（zagat网站，类似大众点评网）

and diversified from rating restaurants,

不仅仅是从多角度评鉴美食餐馆，

into actually rating health care.

他们也开始评价医疗保健。

So what credentials does Zagat's have?

Zagat 到底有什么资质呢?

Well, they have a lot,

他们当然有很多.因为他们有很强的人脉网络.对吧?

because it's their network of people.

So that becomes a very powerful force for them

因此,这变成一股非常强大的力量

促使她们的品牌变得更有张力。

to make their brand more elastic.

Then you look at the phenomenon of Kogi.

再来看看Kogi现象

This Kogi doesn't exist. It's a moving truck.

这个Kogi并非固定,而是一个流动餐车,对吧?

It's a moving truck through L.A.,

它是一个穿梭在洛杉矶的快餐车,而唯一能找到它的方式

and the only way you can find it is through Twitter.

就是通过Twitter。

(Laughter)

又或者再看看强生集团的Momversations网站，

Or you look at

Johnson & Johnson's "Momversations," a phenomenal blog that's been built up,

他们建立了一个感性的博客，

where J&J basically is tapping into the power of mommy bloggers,

娇生集团借此利用

每一个妈妈博主的力量。

allowing them to create a forum where they can communicate and connect.

妈妈们可以去建立一个论坛，

在那里互相沟通和联系。

And it's also become a very valuable advertising revenue for J&J as well.

这俨然是一个非常,非常有效的

营销方式，对强生公司也是如此。

This, plus the fact that you've got phenomenal work from CEOs,

还有，

借用Twitter的连接作用，你可以得到

from Ford to Zappos, connecting on Twitter,

来自从福特汽车到Zappos的CEO们的优质工作。

creating an open environment,

这样就创造了一个开放式的环境，

allowing their employees to be part of the process,

允许员工参与整个过程

rather than hidden behind walls.

而不是躲在幕后。

You see this rising force in total transparency and openness

这股崛起的力量似乎也促使

公司开始尝试完全透明性和公开性。

that companies are starting to adopt,

因为消费者希望这样。

all because the consumer is demanding it.

So when we look at this and step back,

当我们看看这点，再退后一步看，

what I believe is that the crisis that exists today is definitely real.

我相信今天发生的危机

是绝对真实的。

It's been tremendously powerful for consumers.

它已经对消费者造成极大的冲击，

But at the same time, this is also a tremendous opportunity.

但同时,这也是一个绝佳的机会。

The Chinese character for crisis is actually the same side

”危机“在汉语中

实际上指的是同一件事，

of the same coin.

Crisis equals opportunity.

危机就是转机。

What we're seeing with consumers right now is the ability for them

我们当前所看到正是，

消费者事实上有能力去

to actually lead us forward out of this recession.

引领我们走出这次经济衰退。

So we believe that values-driven spending will force capitalism to be better:

因此,我们相信价值驱动消费

会促使资本主义变得更好。

it will drive innovation;

它将驱动创新。

it will make longer-lasting products;

将创造更持久耐用的产品。

it will create better, more intuitive customer service;

它将创造更好、更直观的消费者服务。

它将给我们机会去连接公司

and it will give us the opportunity to connect with companies

that share the values that we share.

互相分享价值。

因此,当我们往后看或跳出来

So when we look back and step out at this

看看这些数据

and see the beginning of these trends that we're seeing in our data,

所显示的趋势的开始。

we see a very hopeful picture for the future of America.

我们看到一个非常有希望的远景在美国的未来

非常感谢。

Thank you very much.

(Applause)

（掌声）