John Gerzema: The post-crisis consumer

28,858 views ・ 2009-10-19

TED


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譯者: Fong-Jyuan Ciou 審譯者: Marie Wu
13兆美元的財富,
00:16
Thirteen trillion dollars in wealth
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00:18
has evaporated over the course of the last two years.
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在過去兩年裡從市場上蒸發,
00:21
We've questioned the future of capitalism.
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我們質疑資本主義的未來,
我們質問這些金融產業,
00:24
We've questioned the financial industry.
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00:26
We've looked at our government oversight.
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我們檢視政府的缺失,
00:28
We've questioned where we're going.
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我們對未來的方向充滿迷茫;
00:30
And yet, at the same time,
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但同時,這也可能成為
00:31
this very well may be a seminal moment in American history,
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美國史上一個重要的里程碑。
00:34
an opportunity for the consumer to actually take control and guide us
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對消費者而言,這是一個機會,
可以讓消費者去掌控並引導我們
00:38
to a new trajectory in America.
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走向一個新的軌道,
我稱它為"大解放 "。
00:41
I'm calling this The Great Unwind.
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00:42
(Laughter)
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00:43
And the idea is a simple, simple idea,
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這是一個很簡單的概念,
00:46
which is the fact that the consumer has moved from a state of anxiety
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指的是消費者
將心中的焦慮實際付諸行動的現象。
00:50
to action.
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00:51
Consumers who represent 72 percent of the GDP of America
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佔美國國內生產總值
72%的消費者已經開始採取行動,
00:55
have actually started, just like banks and just like businesses,
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就像那些銀行、企業
00:59
to de-leverage, to unwind their leverage in daily life,
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紛紛採取去槓桿化措施、解除財務槓桿的操作,
消費者每天都在幫助自己
01:03
to remove themselves from the liability and risk
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從負債與風險中脫離出來,
01:06
that presents itself as they move forward.
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繼續往前進。
01:09
So, to understand this -- and I'm going to stress this --
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因此,為了暸解這部份,接下來我將強調這點,
這並不是說消費者正從市場上撤退,
01:12
it's not about the consumer being in retreat.
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而是他們的力量變強了。
01:14
The consumer is empowered.
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01:15
To understand this, we'll step back and look at what's happened
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為了暸解這個,我們稍微後退一步看看,
在過去一年半裡究竟發生了什麼事,
01:19
over the last year and a half.
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01:20
So if you've been gone, this is the CliffsNotes
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如果你已經經歷過金融危機,就把這當作是重點整理,
以便了解我們的經濟到底發生了什麼事情,好嗎?
01:23
on what's happened in the economy.
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01:24
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
01:25
Unemployment up. Housing values down. Equity markets down.
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失業率上升、房價暴跌、股市一片慘淡、
01:28
Commodity prices are like this.
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商品價格也差不多如此,
01:30
If you're a mom trying to manage a budget,
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假設你是一個管理預算的媽媽,
01:32
and oil was 150 dollars a barrel last summer,
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去年夏天油價一桶150美元,
01:35
and it's somewhere between 50 and 70,
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現在則差不多在50到70美元間上下震盪,
01:37
do you plan vacations?
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你還會計畫旅遊嗎?你會如何分配預算?
01:38
How do you buy?
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01:39
What's your strategy in your household? Will the bailout work?
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你的家庭策略規劃又是什麼?
政府的緊急財政救援會見效嗎?美國國債、底特律失業問題、
01:42
We have national debt, Detroit, currency valuations, health care --
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幣值、醫療保健等,所有的這些議題都不斷地衝擊著我們,
01:45
all these issues facing us.
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如果把這些問題攪和在一起,
01:47
You put them all together, mix them up in a bouillabaisse,
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01:49
and you have consumer confidence that's basically a ticking time bomb.
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你將發現消費者信心會像個定時炸彈一樣。
01:53
In fact, let's go back and look at what caused this crisis,
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讓我們回顧看看是什麼造成這次的金融危機,
01:56
because the consumer, all of us, in our daily lives,
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每天,我們所有的消費者所做的行為,
01:58
actually contributed a large part to the problem.
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都要對這個問題負上很大的責任。
02:01
This is something I call the 50-20 paradox.
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我稱它為50-20矛盾法則,
我們花了50年時間,
02:04
It took us 50 years
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02:06
to reach annual savings ratings of almost 10 percent.
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才達到接近10%的
年存款率。50年耶...
02:10
Fifty years.
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02:11
Do you know what this was right here? This was World War II.
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你們知道在這裡發生了什麼事嗎?
這是第二次世界大戰。各位知道為什麼存款率這麼高嗎?
02:14
Do you know why savings was so high?
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02:16
There was nothing to buy, unless you wanted to buy some rivets.
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因為沒有東西可以買,除非你想引起別人注意,對吧?
02:19
What happened, though, over the course of the last 20 years,
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那麼,在過去20年裡,究竟發生了什麼事,
02:22
we went from a 10 percent savings rate to a negative savings rate.
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讓我們的存款率從正10%變成負的存款率?
因為我們過於狂熱,我們買超大尺寸的車、
02:27
Because we binged.
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02:28
We bought extra-large cars, supersized everything,
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購買過量或過大的東西、付錢醫治我們的「不寧腿症候群」,
02:32
we bought remedies for restless leg syndrome.
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02:35
All these things together basically created a factor
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當所有的事情都湊在一起時,
多多少少造成了
02:39
where the consumer drove us headlong into the crisis
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今日的金融危機。
02:41
that we face today.
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個人的負債收入比
02:43
The personal debt-to-income ratio basically went from 65 to 135 percent
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在過去的15年期間,從原來的65%
攀升到現在的135%。
02:49
in the span of about 15 years.
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02:51
So consumers got over-leveraged.
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消費者過度使用財務槓桿,
02:54
And of course our banks did as well, as did our federal government.
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當然銀行跟聯邦政府也是一樣。
02:57
This is an absolutely staggering chart.
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這是一張絕對會讓你吃驚的圖表,
02:59
It shows leverage, trended out from 1919 to 2009.
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顯示財務槓桿從1919年到2009年的走向,
最後你會看到一個特殊的現象,
03:04
And what you end up seeing is the whole phenomenon
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03:06
that we are actually stepping forth and basically leveraging
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就是我們正在花未來的錢,
我們將財務槓桿拉到未來,
03:10
future education, future children in our households.
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我們已經花掉未來的教育經費及家裡小孩的花費。
03:13
So if you look at this in the context of visualizing the bailout,
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因此,如果你將整個財務救援政策具體化,
03:16
what you can see is, if you stack up dollar bills,
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如果把這些錢堆起來,我們就會看到驚人的景象,
03:19
first of all, 360,000 dollars
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一開始先堆36萬美元,
03:21
is about the size of a five-foot-four guy.
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那大概是一個160公分高的人的高度;
03:24
But if you stack it up, you see this amazing, staggering amount of dollars
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但如果我們持續堆下去,你就會看到這些驚人、巨額的金錢
已經被放進這個系統,
03:28
that have been put into the system to fund and bail us out.
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作為資助及財政救援的措施。
03:31
So this is the first 315 billion.
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這是第一筆3千150億美元。
03:33
But I read this fact the other day,
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但就在不久前的某一天, 我才發現,
03:35
that one trillion seconds equals 32,000 years.
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一萬億秒等於3萬2千年。
03:38
So if you think about that,
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因此如果你思考著整件事情的來龍去脈,
03:40
the context, the casualness with which we talk about
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這些倉促決策的幾萬億的財政救援措施,
03:42
trillion-dollar bailout here and trillion there,
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03:44
we are stacking ourselves up for long-term leverage.
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正將我們自己推向長期的財務槓桿。
然而,消費者已經改變了,
03:48
However, consumers have moved.
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03:50
They are taking responsibility.
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他們正在學著負起責任,
我們所看到的是存款率的上升,
03:53
What we're seeing is an uptake in the savings rate.
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03:55
In fact, 11 straight months of savings have happened
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事實上,自從金融危機發生之後,
存款已連續增加了11個月。
03:58
since the beginning of the crisis.
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03:59
We're working our way back up to that 10 percent.
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我們正努力將存款率拉回10%,
同時,在第四季可以很明顯地看到,
04:02
Also, remarkably, in the fourth quarter,
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消費支出掉到62年來的最低點,
04:04
spending dropped to its lowest level in 62 years --
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04:07
almost a 3.7 percent decline.
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減少約3.7%。
04:10
Visa now reports that more people are using debit cards than credit cards.
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近日Visa的報告指出,比起使用信用卡,
越來越多人開始使用現金卡,
04:14
So we're starting to pay for things with money that we have.
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人們開始在存款限額內進行消費;
04:17
And we're starting to be much more careful about how we save and invest.
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同時我們也更加謹慎規劃
儲蓄與投資。
04:21
But that's not really the whole story,
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但這還無法說明整件事的全貌,
04:23
because this has also been a dramatic time of transformation.
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因為這也已經變成一個充滿戲劇化的轉變。
04:26
And you've got to admit, over the last year and a half,
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我們必須承認,在過去一年半的時間裡,
消費者做了一些相當奇怪的事,
04:29
consumers have been doing some weird things.
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因為我們所經歷的事件太不可思議了,
04:31
It's pretty staggering, what we've lived through.
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04:33
If you take into account that 80 percent of all Americans
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尤其現在的美國人,
有80%是在二次世界大戰之後出生,
04:36
were born after World War II,
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04:37
this was essentially our Depression.
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這無疑是我們的經濟大衰退。
04:39
And so, as a result, some crazy things have happened.
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也因此,導致一些瘋狂的事情發生。
04:42
I'll give you some examples.
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我會舉幾個例子,像是牙醫、
04:43
Let's talk about dentists, vasectomies, guns and shark attacks.
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男人結紮、槍枝氾濫以及鯊魚攻擊事件,好嗎?
04:48
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
04:50
Dentists report molars -- people grinding their teeth,
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牙醫報告指出,
從臼齒就可以看出人們磨牙,
04:53
coming in and reporting that they've had stress.
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顯示他們承受過多的壓力,
04:56
So there's an increase in people having to have their fillings replaced.
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因此補牙的人越來越多;
04:59
Gun sales, according to the FBI, who does background checks,
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根據FBI的背景調查指出,
槍枝銷售量從1月到現在攀升了近25%;
05:03
are up almost 25 percent since January.
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05:06
Vasectomies are up 48 percent, according to the Cornell Institute.
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根據Cornell機構資料顯示,
男人做結紮手術的比例上升了48%。
05:10
And lastly, but a very good point,
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最後,也是一個非常好的一點,
05:13
hopefully not related to the former point I just made,
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希望跟先前我所提到的都不相關,
05:15
which is that shark attacks are at their lowest level from 2003.
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就是鯊魚攻擊的次數降到了2003年以來的最低點。
有人知道為什麼嗎?
05:19
Does anybody know why?
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05:21
(Laughter)
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05:22
No one's at the beach.
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因為没人去沙灘了。反正每一件事都有好的一面。
05:23
So there's a bright side to everything.
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05:25
But seriously, what we see happening,
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但是認真地來說,我們所看到發生的一切,
05:27
and the reason I want to stress that the consumer is not in retreat,
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以及為什麼我想要去強調現在不是消費者從市場上撤退的時機,
對消費者來說,現在反而是一個絕佳的機會,
05:31
is that this is a tremendous opportunity
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雖然過度消費曾讓我們走入經濟衰退,
05:33
for the consumer who drove us into this recession
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05:35
to lead us right back out.
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但消費也可以帶領我們走出衰退。
05:37
What I mean by that is we can move from mindless consumption
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經過這次的事件,我們可以從愚蠢的消費
05:40
to mindful consumption.
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轉為聰明的消費,對吧?
05:42
Right?
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05:43
(Applause)
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如果你回顧一下過去三十年,
05:44
If you think about the last three decades,
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90年代還在試圖理解市場運作的消費者,
05:47
the consumer has moved from savvy about marketing in the '90s,
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05:50
to gathering all these amazing social and search tools in this decade.
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最近十年已經發展到懂得利用驚人的社交及搜尋工具,
05:54
But the one thing holding them back is the ability to discriminate.
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唯一能將他們拉回市場的是辨別好壞的能力。
05:57
By restricting their demand,
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藉由限制他們的需求,消費者才能夠實際地
05:59
consumers can actually align their values with their spending,
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衡量消費的價值,
06:02
and drive capitalism and business to not just be about more,
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引導資本主義和企業,
讓他們不只在乎數量,而是更在乎品質。
06:06
but to be about better.
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接下來我要來解釋這點,
06:07
We're going to explain that right now.
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06:09
Based on Y&R's BrandAsset Valuator,
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根據Y&R的品牌資產評估系統,
這是VML和Y&R的專有工具,
06:12
proprietary tool of VML and Young & Rubicam,
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06:14
we set out to understand what's been happening in the crisis
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我們開始了解到,
金融危機在消費市場所扮演的角色。
06:17
with the consumer marketplace.
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06:19
We found a couple of really interesting things.
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我們發現了一些相當有趣的事情,
06:21
We're going to go through four value shifts
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我們要來探討引發新型消費行為、
06:23
that we see driving new consumer behaviors,
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提供新型態管理法則的
06:26
that offer new management principles.
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四種價值觀的轉變。
06:28
The first cultural value shift we see
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首先是文化價值觀的轉變,
06:30
is this tendency toward something we call "liquid life."
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現在的生活型態漸漸開始重視流動性;
06:32
This is the movement
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以前美國人以為的成功,是擁有資產,
06:33
from Americans defining their success on having things
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現在則是擁有現金,
06:37
to having liquidity,
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06:38
because the less excess that you have around you,
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因為你購買的非必須品愈少,
生活的負擔就會愈減輕。
06:41
the more nimble and fleet of foot you are.
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06:43
As a result, déclassé consumption is in.
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因此,就產生了低調消費。
06:45
Déclassé consumption is the whole idea that spending money frivolously
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低調消費不贊成盲目奢侈的消費,
因為那不符合現在的流行趨勢。
06:49
makes you look a little bit anti-fashion.
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06:52
The management principle is dollars and cents.
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這個法則重視的是金錢。
那麼,讓我們先來看看一些低調消費
06:55
So let's look at some examples of this déclassé consumption
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這種價值觀轉變的例子。
06:57
that falls out of this value.
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06:59
The first thing is, something must be happening
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第一件事是當P. Diddy(吹牛老爹)宣告
07:01
when P. Diddy vows to tone down his bling.
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不再穿戴華麗閃亮的服飾,那一定代表某種意義。
07:03
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
07:04
But seriously, we also have this phenomenon
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但是嚴格地說,
這種現象也發生在廣告業和其他地方,
07:07
on Madison Avenue and in other places,
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當人們從奢侈的精品店走出來的時候,
07:09
where people are actually walking out of luxury boutiques
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手裡拿著一般的紙袋,
07:12
with ordinary, generic paper bags to hide the brand purchases.
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裡面卻藏著他們剛買的各種名牌物品。
07:15
We see high-end haggling in fashion today,
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今天我們看到高檔的流行商品開始降價促銷,
07:18
high-end haggling for luxury and real estate.
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高檔的奢侈品和不動產也在降價,
07:21
We also see just a relaxing of ego,
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我們也看到自尊心的解放,
07:23
and sort of a dismantling of artifice.
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以及人們不再玩弄巧計。
這是一個發生在遊艇俱樂部的故事,
07:26
This is a story on the yacht club that's all basically blue collar.
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成員基本上都是藍領階級,
07:29
Blue-collar yacht club -- where you can join,
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也就是藍領階級遊艇俱樂部,你可以參加這個俱樂部,
但前題是你必須在船塢上工作,
07:32
but you've got to work in the boatyard as condition of membership.
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這是入會的基本條件。
07:35
We also see the trend toward tourism that's a little bit more low-key:
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我們也看到未來趨勢朝向
低調觀光旅遊,對吧?
07:40
agritourism -- going to vineyards and going to farms.
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農業旅遊,走入葡萄園和農田去實際體驗。
07:43
And then we also see this movement forward from dollars and cents.
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然後我們也看到消費者從重視金錢又往前邁了一步,
07:46
What businesses can do to connect with these new mindsets
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企業運用這些新觀念所發展出來的想法,
是相當有趣的,
07:49
is really interesting.
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07:50
A couple things that are kind of cool.
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有一些看起來還很酷。
07:52
One is that Frito-Lay figured out this liquidity thing with their consumer.
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其中一個是Frito-Lay(知名食品公司),他們從消費者身上
觀察到現金的使用狀況。
07:56
They found their consumer had more money at the beginning of the month,
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他們發現消費者在月初有較多可運用的錢,
月底則較少,因此他們所做的
07:59
less at the end of the month.
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就是去改變他們的包裝,
08:01
So they started to change their packaging:
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月初販賣的包裝比較大,
08:03
larger packs at the beginning of the month,
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月底販賣的包裝則較小。
08:05
smaller packaging at the end of the month.
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另外,真正有趣的是舊金山巨人棒球隊,
08:07
Really interestingly, too, was the San Francisco Giants.
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他們採用了動態定價策略,
08:10
They've just instituted dynamic pricing.
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08:12
It takes into account everything from the pitcher match-ups,
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將各種因素列入考量,像是投手與打者的投打記錄、
天氣、球隊紀錄等,
08:15
to the weather, to the team records,
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08:17
in setting prices for the consumer.
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作為訂定票價的依據。
08:19
Another quick example of these types of movements is the rise of Zynga.
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另一個例子就是Zynga(開發"開心農場"的遊戲廠商)
的快速崛起。
Zynga的崛起,是因為消費者
08:25
Zynga has risen on the consumer's desire
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不想定期支付固定成本,
08:27
to not want to be locked in to fixed cost.
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08:29
Again, this theme is about variable cost, variable living.
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同樣的,重點是關於變動成本及變動生活,
所以消費者的小額支出便累積出Zynga的巨額收入。
08:32
So micro-payments have become huge.
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最後,有一些人使用Hulu(免付費網路電視)
08:34
And lastly, some people are using Hulu
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08:36
as a device to get rid of their cable bill.
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作為逃避有線電視帳單的手法。
08:38
So, really clever ideas there that are being taken ahold of
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因此,消費者開始採用
一些真正聰明的想法,而企業也開始瞭解到這個現象。
08:42
and that marketers are starting to understand.
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第二個價值觀的轉變,
08:44
The second of the four values is this movement toward
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是重視道德及公平競賽。
08:47
ethics and fair play.
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08:48
We see that play itself out with empathy and respect.
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消費者表現出來的行為是同理心與尊重,
08:51
The consumer is demanding it.
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因為這是消費者需要的,
08:53
And, as a result, businesses must provide not only value,
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所以企業不只要提供有價值的東西,
還得提供符合消費者的價值觀。
08:56
but values.
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08:57
Increasingly, consumers are looking at the culture of the company,
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漸漸地,消費者開始檢視公司文化,
在市場中觀察企業的行為。
09:00
at their conduct in the marketplace.
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09:02
So we see with empathy and respect
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由於消費者重視同理心與尊重,在這次的經濟衰退中
09:04
lots of really hopeful things come out of this recession.
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竟產生很多真正有希望的事情。
下面是一些例子,
09:07
I'll give you a few examples.
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09:08
One is the rise toward communities and neighborhoods,
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其中之一是重視社區與鄰里,
並將鄰居當作自己的後備支援系統。
09:11
and increased emphasis on your neighbors as your support system.
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09:14
Also, a wonderful by-product of a really lousy thing,
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此外,這次的經濟衰退雖然導致了嚴重的失業率,
09:18
which has been unemployment,
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但卻出現了一個很棒的副產品,
09:20
is a rise in volunteerism that's been noted in our country.
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就是目前國人所注意到的義工的增加。
我們也看到這樣的一個現象,
09:23
We also see the phenomenon -- some of you may have "boomerang kids" --
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你們家裡可能有”賴家王老五”,
09:26
these are "boomerang alumni,"
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這些人則是返校校友,
09:28
where universities are actually reconnecting with alumni
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由大學來聯繫這些畢業校友,
幫助他們找工作、分享專業技能,並進行職業訓練。
09:31
and helping them with jobs, sharing skills and retraining.
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09:34
We also talked about character and professionalism.
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我們也談論到人格特質與個人專業,
09:36
We had this miracle on the Hudson in New York City in January,
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今年一月時,紐約的哈德遜河上發生了機長成功迫降的奇蹟,
09:40
and suddenly Sully has become a key name on BabyCenter.
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突然間Sully(機長)這個名字便成了為嬰兒命名的當紅選擇。
09:44
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
09:45
So, from a value and values standpoint,
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因此,從價值及價值觀的觀點來看,
09:47
what companies can do is connect in lots of different ways.
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公司能做的是用各種方式與之連結。
09:50
Microsoft is doing something wonderful.
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微軟做了一些很棒的事,
09:52
They are actually vowing to retrain two million Americans with IT training,
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他們對外宣示將訓練2百萬美國人從事資訊行業,
09:56
using their existing infrastructure to do something good.
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也就是使用他們既有的設備去做一些好事。
09:59
Also, a really interesting company is GORE-TEX.
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另一個有趣的公司是Gore-Tex,
10:02
GORE-TEX is all about personal accountability
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Gore-Tex相當強調個人自我的責任感,
不管是主管或是員工都一樣,
10:05
of their management and their employees,
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10:06
to the point where they really kind of shun the idea of bosses.
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所以幾乎用不到主管的權威。
10:10
But they also talk about the fact that their executives --
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但他們也談論到,
公司高階主管的所有費用支出,
10:13
all of their expense reports are put onto their company intranet
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都條列在公司內部網路供每個員工觀看,
10:16
for everyone to see.
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10:17
Complete transparency.
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完全透明,
10:19
Think twice before you have that bottle of wine.
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所以高階主管在喝酒前可得三思而後行。
10:21
(Laughter)
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10:22
The third of the four laws of post-crisis consumerism
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第三個法則是
10:25
is about durable living.
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永續生存。
10:27
We're seeing in our data that consumers are realizing
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資料顯示,消費者已經意識到
10:29
this is a marathon, not a sprint.
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金融危機是一場馬拉松,而非短跑;
10:31
They're digging in and looking for ways to extract value
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他們開始認真地尋找方法去取得
每次購買所創造出的價值,
10:34
out of every purchase they make.
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10:36
Witness the fact that Americans are holding on to their cars
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我們看到美國人現在保有同一輛車的時間,
比以前還要久,
10:39
longer than ever before: 9.4 years on average, in March.
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在今年三月創下歷史紀錄,平均9.4年。
10:43
A record.
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10:44
We also see the fact that libraries have become a huge resource for America.
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我們也看到,圖書館已經變成
美國人很常使用的地方,
10:48
Did you know that 68 percent of Americans now carry a library card?
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你知道現在有68%的美國人
辦了圖書證嗎?
10:52
The highest percentage ever in our nation's history.
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這在我們國家的紀錄中,是最高的比例。
10:54
So what you see in this trend is also the accumulation of knowledge.
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從這個趨勢我們也可以看到
知識的累積,
10:58
Continuing education is up.
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越來越多人不斷地學習,
11:00
Everything is focused on betterment, training,
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每件事都強調改善、訓練、
11:02
development and moving forward.
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發展及進步。
11:04
We also see a big DIY movement.
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我們也看到一個DIY的趨勢,
11:07
I was fascinated to learn that 30 percent of all homes in America
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我很驚訝有30%的美國人,
動手建造自己的房屋,
11:11
are actually built by owners.
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11:13
That includes cottages and the like,
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包括農舍小屋這類的,有30%的人耶...
11:15
but 30 percent.
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11:16
People are getting their hands dirty, rolling up their sleeves.
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他們必須捲起袖子,弄髒雙手,
他們希望取得這類技術。
11:19
They want these skills.
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11:20
We see it with the phenomenon of raising backyard hens, chickens and ducks.
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我們看到有人在後院飼養
母雞、小雞及鴨子,當你計算成本效益後,
11:24
And when you work out the math, they say it doesn't work,
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他們卻回答那不重要,他們所重視的是
11:27
but the principle is there;
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關於永續及自給自足的概念。
11:28
it's about being sustainable and taking care of yourself.
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11:31
Then we look at the High Line in New York City,
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我們再看看紐約市的High Line長廊式休憩公園,
11:33
an excellent use of reimagining existing infrastructure
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將原有的設施重新改造,
賦予全新的面貌,
11:36
for something good,
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11:37
which is a brand-new park in New York City.
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一躍而成紐約市的新地標公園。
11:39
So what brands can do, and companies, is pay dividends to consumers,
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因此,品牌或企業能做的,
就是回饋給消費者,
11:43
be a brand that lasts,
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並承諾大眾
11:45
offer transparency,
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做一個永續經營、透明的企業,而不僅只是銷售而已。
11:46
promise you're going to be there beyond today's sale.
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最佳的例子是Patagonia(成衣商),
11:49
Perfect example of that is Patagonia.
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11:51
Patagonia's "Footprint Chronicles"
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Patagonia設計了一套產品追蹤系統,
11:53
basically goes through and tracks every product they make,
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可以讓消費者查詢產品的生產過程,
11:56
and gives you social responsibility,
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並讓消費者瞭解,在每樣產品背後,
11:58
and helps you understand the ethics behind the product they make.
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都有自己的社會責任
與道德倫理。
12:02
Another great example is Fidelity.
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另一個很棒的例子是富達證券,
12:04
Rather than instant cash-back rewards on your credit or debit purchases,
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一般發卡公司都是將現金回饋到消費者的信用卡上,
12:07
this is about 529 rewards for your student education.
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但富達卻是提供529項助學獎勵金,
作為學生教育補助。
12:12
Or the interesting company Sunrun.
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或者還有另一個有趣的公司SunRun,
12:14
I love this company.
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我喜歡這間公司,因為他們提供的產品,
12:16
They've created a consumer collective
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可以讓消費者將太陽能面板放置在一般家庭裡,
12:18
where they put solar panels on households
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12:20
and create a consumer-based utility,
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就像一個小型的家庭電力公司,
12:22
where the electricity they generate
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並將產生的電力
12:24
is basically pumped back out into the marketplace.
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再賣回到市場上,
形成一個由消費者主導的合作模式。
12:27
So it's a consumer-driven co-op.
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12:28
The fourth post-crisis consumerism that we see
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第四種金融危機後的消費價值觀的改變,
是恢復對人的信任,
12:32
is this movement about "return to the fold."
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12:34
It's incredibly important right now.
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這是非常重要的一點,
12:36
Trust is not parceled out, as we all know.
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因為我們都知道信任無法分配。
12:39
It's now about connecting to your communities,
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我們所談的是社區連結與
12:41
connecting to your social networks.
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社會網絡的連結。
12:43
In my book, I talked about the fact
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在我的書中有提到,
12:44
that 72 percent of people trust what other people say
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72%的人信賴認識的人
12:47
about a brand or a company,
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介紹的品牌跟公司,只有15%的人相信廣告。
12:49
versus 15 percent on advertising.
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2042
因此,在這方面,
12:51
So in that respect, cooperative consumerism has really taken off.
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3720
互助消費主義已經開始發酵,
12:54
This is about consumers working together to get what they want
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消費者們相互合作,
去得到他們想從市場上取得的東西。
12:57
out of the marketplace.
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先快速地看一下幾個例子,
12:59
Let's look at a couple of quick examples.
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現在掀起了一股巨大的手工製造風潮,
13:01
The artisanal movement is huge:
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13:02
everything about locally derived products and services,
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他們全都使用當地的產品與服務,
13:05
supporting your local neighborhoods,
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無論是起司、酒或其他產品,
13:07
whether it's cheeses, wines and other products.
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讓當地的居民有生意可做。
13:10
Also this rise of local currencies.
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同時各地也開始印製流通於當地的貨幣,
13:13
Realizing that it's difficult to get loans in this environment,
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因為大家瞭解到在這種環境下,很難取得融資,
所以人們開始只和自己信賴的人做生意,
13:16
you're doing business with people you trust
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也只在當地的市場做生意,
13:18
in your local markets.
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1179
13:19
So this rise of local currency is another really interesting phenomenon.
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3868
因此,只限當地流通的貨幣就出現了,
這變成另一個有趣的現象。
13:23
And then they did a recent report I thought was fascinating.
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最近有一個報告,
我覺得這個報告很吸引人,
13:27
They actually started, in certain communities in the United States,
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報告指出,美國的某些特定社區,
已經開始公布各個家庭的用電量,
13:30
to publish people's electricity usage.
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2027
13:32
And what they found out is when that was available for public record,
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他們發現,一旦公布用電量的資訊,
13:35
the people's electricity usage in those communities dropped.
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該社區的用電量就會開始減少。
13:39
Then we also look at the idea of cow-pooling,
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再來,我們來看看揪團買牛肉的構想,
13:42
which is the whole phenomenon of consumers organizing together
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這是由消費者
自己組織起來,
13:46
to buy meat from organic farms, that they know is safe and controlled
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去有機農場裡直接購買肉品,
因為他們認同該農場的管理風格及肉品安全。
13:50
in the way that they want it to be controlled.
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13:52
And then there's this other really interesting movement in California,
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還有一個很有趣的運動,
就是從加州興起的胡蘿蔔運動。
13:56
which is about carrot mobs.
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13:57
The traditional thing would be to boycott, right? Have a stick.
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傳統的方法是聯合抵制購買,對吧?
但那是對商家的懲罰?為什麼不用獎勵的方式呢?
14:00
Well, why not have a carrot?
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因此,這些消費者組織起來、集合大家的資源,
14:02
So these are consumers organizing, pooling their resources
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14:05
to incentify companies to do good.
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去鼓勵那些商家表現得更好,
14:08
And then we look at what companies can do.
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然後我們再來看看企業能做到什麼程度。
14:11
This is all the opportunity about being a community organizer.
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由消費者組成的社群能做很多事,
14:14
You have to realize that you can't fight and control this.
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你必須了解你不能對抗消費者,也不能控制消費者,
14:17
You actually need to organize it.
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你只能把消費者組織起來,
14:19
You need to harness it. You need to give it meaning.
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駕馭這個組織,賦予它意義。
14:21
And there's lots of really interesting examples here.
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這裡有很多有趣的實際案例,
可以供我們參考。
14:25
First is just the rise of the fact that Zagat's has actually moved out of
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第一個案例是Zagat(餐廳評比網站),
他們已經跨出自己原本的領域,
14:29
and diversified from rating restaurants,
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從美食餐廳的評比
14:32
into actually rating health care.
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跨足到醫療保健的評比。
14:34
So what credentials does Zagat's have?
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Zagat到底能做什麼呢?
14:36
Well, they have a lot,
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他們能做的事當然很多,因為他們擁有強大的人脈,對吧?
14:37
because it's their network of people.
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14:39
So that becomes a very powerful force for them
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所以,人脈是他們非常強大力量的來源,
讓他們的品牌更具彈性。
14:42
to make their brand more elastic.
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14:44
Then you look at the phenomenon of Kogi.
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再來看看Kogi(賣包韓國烤肉的墨西哥薄餅)現象,
14:47
This Kogi doesn't exist. It's a moving truck.
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Kogi並不是餐廳,而是一個流動餐車,對吧?
14:50
It's a moving truck through L.A.,
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它是一個穿梭在洛杉磯的快餐車,而你只能透過Twitter
14:51
and the only way you can find it is through Twitter.
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才能找到它。
14:54
(Laughter)
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又或者再看看嬌生集團的媽媽經網站,
14:55
Or you look at
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14:56
Johnson & Johnson's "Momversations," a phenomenal blog that's been built up,
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這是一個驚人的部落格,
15:01
where J&J basically is tapping into the power of mommy bloggers,
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嬌生集團抓準了
媽咪部落客的心理,
15:05
allowing them to create a forum where they can communicate and connect.
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讓她們建立一個論壇,
可以互相溝通和連結,
15:10
And it's also become a very valuable advertising revenue for J&J as well.
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這儼然已經變成一個非常有效的
行銷方式。
15:15
This, plus the fact that you've got phenomenal work from CEOs,
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這些以及我們從福特汽車
到Zappos(知名網路鞋店)的執行長上所學到的,
15:19
from Ford to Zappos, connecting on Twitter,
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連結上Twitter後,
15:21
creating an open environment,
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就能創造出一個開放的環境,
15:23
allowing their employees to be part of the process,
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讓員工也參予整個過程,
15:26
rather than hidden behind walls.
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而非藏在幕後。
15:28
You see this rising force in total transparency and openness
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企業似乎都已開始採行
資訊透明及公開的策略,
15:32
that companies are starting to adopt,
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因為消費者希望他們這樣做。
15:34
all because the consumer is demanding it.
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15:36
So when we look at this and step back,
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因此,當我們看清這一點,再回頭看看,
15:38
what I believe is that the crisis that exists today is definitely real.
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我相信今天發生的危機,
是絕對真實的。
15:42
It's been tremendously powerful for consumers.
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金融危機已經對消費者造成極大的衝擊,
15:45
But at the same time, this is also a tremendous opportunity.
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但同時,這也代表這是一個絕佳的機會。
15:48
The Chinese character for crisis is actually the same side
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中國字對於危機的詮釋,
實際上指的是同一件事,
15:52
of the same coin.
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15:53
Crisis equals opportunity.
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危機就是轉機。
15:55
What we're seeing with consumers right now is the ability for them
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我們所看到的消費者行為的轉變,
事實上是消費者有能力
15:58
to actually lead us forward out of this recession.
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引領我們走出這次的經濟衰退。
16:01
So we believe that values-driven spending will force capitalism to be better:
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因此,我們相信,價值導向的消費行為,
將引導促使資本主義走向更好的境界。
16:06
it will drive innovation;
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它將帶來創新、
16:08
it will make longer-lasting products;
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創造更持久耐用的產品、
16:10
it will create better, more intuitive customer service;
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提供更好、更直觀的服務。
這讓我們有機會與企業一同
16:13
and it will give us the opportunity to connect with companies
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16:15
that share the values that we share.
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互相分享價值。
因此,當我們回過頭去,或跳出來
16:18
So when we look back and step out at this
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看這些資料顯示為
16:20
and see the beginning of these trends that we're seeing in our data,
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正在興起的趨勢時,
16:23
we see a very hopeful picture for the future of America.
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我們看到的未來是一個非常有希望的美國。
非常謝謝你們。
16:26
Thank you very much.
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16:27
(Applause)
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(鼓掌)
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