請雙擊下方英文字幕播放視頻。
譯者: Fong-Jyuan Ciou
審譯者: Marie Wu
13兆美元的財富,
00:16
Thirteen trillion dollars in wealth
0
16148
2088
00:18
has evaporated over the course
of the last two years.
1
18260
2976
在過去兩年裡從市場上蒸發,
00:21
We've questioned the future of capitalism.
2
21813
2297
我們質疑資本主義的未來,
我們質問這些金融產業,
00:24
We've questioned the financial industry.
3
24134
2352
00:26
We've looked at our government oversight.
4
26510
1976
我們檢視政府的缺失,
00:28
We've questioned where we're going.
5
28510
1694
我們對未來的方向充滿迷茫;
00:30
And yet, at the same time,
6
30228
1309
但同時,這也可能成為
00:31
this very well may be
a seminal moment in American history,
7
31561
2876
美國史上一個重要的里程碑。
00:34
an opportunity for the consumer
to actually take control and guide us
8
34461
4325
對消費者而言,這是一個機會,
可以讓消費者去掌控並引導我們
00:38
to a new trajectory in America.
9
38810
2176
走向一個新的軌道,
我稱它為"大解放 "。
00:41
I'm calling this The Great Unwind.
10
41010
1725
00:42
(Laughter)
11
42759
1002
00:43
And the idea is a simple, simple idea,
12
43785
2601
這是一個很簡單的概念,
00:46
which is the fact that the consumer
has moved from a state of anxiety
13
46410
4080
指的是消費者
將心中的焦慮實際付諸行動的現象。
00:50
to action.
14
50514
1158
00:51
Consumers who represent 72 percent
of the GDP of America
15
51696
4239
佔美國國內生產總值
72%的消費者已經開始採取行動,
00:55
have actually started, just like banks
and just like businesses,
16
55959
3444
就像那些銀行、企業
00:59
to de-leverage, to unwind
their leverage in daily life,
17
59427
4084
紛紛採取去槓桿化措施、解除財務槓桿的操作,
消費者每天都在幫助自己
01:03
to remove themselves
from the liability and risk
18
63535
2951
從負債與風險中脫離出來,
01:06
that presents itself as they move forward.
19
66510
2876
繼續往前進。
01:09
So, to understand this --
and I'm going to stress this --
20
69410
2733
因此,為了暸解這部份,接下來我將強調這點,
這並不是說消費者正從市場上撤退,
01:12
it's not about the consumer
being in retreat.
21
72167
2163
而是他們的力量變強了。
01:14
The consumer is empowered.
22
74354
1360
01:15
To understand this, we'll step back
and look at what's happened
23
75738
3257
為了暸解這個,我們稍微後退一步看看,
在過去一年半裡究竟發生了什麼事,
01:19
over the last year and a half.
24
79019
1895
01:20
So if you've been gone,
this is the CliffsNotes
25
80938
2219
如果你已經經歷過金融危機,就把這當作是重點整理,
以便了解我們的經濟到底發生了什麼事情,好嗎?
01:23
on what's happened in the economy.
26
83181
1624
01:24
(Laughter)
27
84829
1004
(笑聲)
01:25
Unemployment up. Housing values down.
Equity markets down.
28
85857
3070
失業率上升、房價暴跌、股市一片慘淡、
01:28
Commodity prices are like this.
29
88951
1606
商品價格也差不多如此,
01:30
If you're a mom trying to manage a budget,
30
90581
2248
假設你是一個管理預算的媽媽,
01:32
and oil was 150 dollars
a barrel last summer,
31
92853
2665
去年夏天油價一桶150美元,
01:35
and it's somewhere between 50 and 70,
32
95542
1773
現在則差不多在50到70美元間上下震盪,
01:37
do you plan vacations?
33
97339
1163
你還會計畫旅遊嗎?你會如何分配預算?
01:38
How do you buy?
34
98526
1158
01:39
What's your strategy in your household?
Will the bailout work?
35
99708
2920
你的家庭策略規劃又是什麼?
政府的緊急財政救援會見效嗎?美國國債、底特律失業問題、
01:42
We have national debt, Detroit,
currency valuations, health care --
36
102652
3175
幣值、醫療保健等,所有的這些議題都不斷地衝擊著我們,
01:45
all these issues facing us.
37
105851
1297
如果把這些問題攪和在一起,
01:47
You put them all together,
mix them up in a bouillabaisse,
38
107172
2726
01:49
and you have consumer confidence
that's basically a ticking time bomb.
39
109922
3331
你將發現消費者信心會像個定時炸彈一樣。
01:53
In fact, let's go back and look
at what caused this crisis,
40
113277
2977
讓我們回顧看看是什麼造成這次的金融危機,
01:56
because the consumer,
all of us, in our daily lives,
41
116278
2478
每天,我們所有的消費者所做的行為,
01:58
actually contributed
a large part to the problem.
42
118780
2476
都要對這個問題負上很大的責任。
02:01
This is something I call
the 50-20 paradox.
43
121280
2780
我稱它為50-20矛盾法則,
我們花了50年時間,
02:04
It took us 50 years
44
124084
2752
02:06
to reach annual savings ratings
of almost 10 percent.
45
126860
3756
才達到接近10%的
年存款率。50年耶...
02:10
Fifty years.
46
130640
1196
02:11
Do you know what this was right here?
This was World War II.
47
131860
2878
你們知道在這裡發生了什麼事嗎?
這是第二次世界大戰。各位知道為什麼存款率這麼高嗎?
02:14
Do you know why savings was so high?
48
134762
1814
02:16
There was nothing to buy,
unless you wanted to buy some rivets.
49
136600
3310
因為沒有東西可以買,除非你想引起別人注意,對吧?
02:19
What happened, though,
over the course of the last 20 years,
50
139934
2930
那麼,在過去20年裡,究竟發生了什麼事,
02:22
we went from a 10 percent savings rate
to a negative savings rate.
51
142888
4160
讓我們的存款率從正10%變成負的存款率?
因為我們過於狂熱,我們買超大尺寸的車、
02:27
Because we binged.
52
147072
1653
02:28
We bought extra-large cars,
supersized everything,
53
148749
3793
購買過量或過大的東西、付錢醫治我們的「不寧腿症候群」,
02:32
we bought remedies
for restless leg syndrome.
54
152566
2708
02:35
All these things together
basically created a factor
55
155298
3906
當所有的事情都湊在一起時,
多多少少造成了
02:39
where the consumer drove us
headlong into the crisis
56
159228
2588
今日的金融危機。
02:41
that we face today.
57
161840
1273
個人的負債收入比
02:43
The personal debt-to-income ratio
basically went from 65 to 135 percent
58
163137
6277
在過去的15年期間,從原來的65%
攀升到現在的135%。
02:49
in the span of about 15 years.
59
169438
2508
02:51
So consumers got over-leveraged.
60
171970
2087
消費者過度使用財務槓桿,
02:54
And of course our banks did as well,
as did our federal government.
61
174081
3181
當然銀行跟聯邦政府也是一樣。
02:57
This is an absolutely staggering chart.
62
177286
2066
這是一張絕對會讓你吃驚的圖表,
02:59
It shows leverage,
trended out from 1919 to 2009.
63
179376
4607
顯示財務槓桿從1919年到2009年的走向,
最後你會看到一個特殊的現象,
03:04
And what you end up seeing
is the whole phenomenon
64
184007
2652
03:06
that we are actually stepping forth
and basically leveraging
65
186683
3856
就是我們正在花未來的錢,
我們將財務槓桿拉到未來,
03:10
future education, future children
in our households.
66
190563
3179
我們已經花掉未來的教育經費及家裡小孩的花費。
03:13
So if you look at this in the context
of visualizing the bailout,
67
193766
3100
因此,如果你將整個財務救援政策具體化,
03:16
what you can see is,
if you stack up dollar bills,
68
196890
2496
如果把這些錢堆起來,我們就會看到驚人的景象,
03:19
first of all, 360,000 dollars
69
199410
2242
一開始先堆36萬美元,
03:21
is about the size of a five-foot-four guy.
70
201676
2519
那大概是一個160公分高的人的高度;
03:24
But if you stack it up, you see
this amazing, staggering amount of dollars
71
204219
4277
但如果我們持續堆下去,你就會看到這些驚人、巨額的金錢
已經被放進這個系統,
03:28
that have been put into the system
to fund and bail us out.
72
208520
2866
作為資助及財政救援的措施。
03:31
So this is the first 315 billion.
73
211410
2165
這是第一筆3千150億美元。
03:33
But I read this fact the other day,
74
213599
1773
但就在不久前的某一天, 我才發現,
03:35
that one trillion seconds
equals 32,000 years.
75
215396
3310
一萬億秒等於3萬2千年。
03:38
So if you think about that,
76
218730
1317
因此如果你思考著整件事情的來龍去脈,
03:40
the context, the casualness
with which we talk about
77
220071
2496
這些倉促決策的幾萬億的財政救援措施,
03:42
trillion-dollar bailout here
and trillion there,
78
222591
2253
03:44
we are stacking ourselves up
for long-term leverage.
79
224868
3385
正將我們自己推向長期的財務槓桿。
然而,消費者已經改變了,
03:48
However, consumers have moved.
80
228277
2652
03:50
They are taking responsibility.
81
230953
2039
他們正在學著負起責任,
我們所看到的是存款率的上升,
03:53
What we're seeing
is an uptake in the savings rate.
82
233016
2529
03:55
In fact, 11 straight months
of savings have happened
83
235569
2715
事實上,自從金融危機發生之後,
存款已連續增加了11個月。
03:58
since the beginning of the crisis.
84
238308
1647
03:59
We're working our way back up
to that 10 percent.
85
239979
2364
我們正努力將存款率拉回10%,
同時,在第四季可以很明顯地看到,
04:02
Also, remarkably, in the fourth quarter,
86
242367
1930
消費支出掉到62年來的最低點,
04:04
spending dropped
to its lowest level in 62 years --
87
244321
3381
04:07
almost a 3.7 percent decline.
88
247726
2660
減少約3.7%。
04:10
Visa now reports that more people
are using debit cards than credit cards.
89
250410
3880
近日Visa的報告指出,比起使用信用卡,
越來越多人開始使用現金卡,
04:14
So we're starting to pay for things
with money that we have.
90
254314
3393
人們開始在存款限額內進行消費;
04:17
And we're starting to be much more careful
about how we save and invest.
91
257731
3655
同時我們也更加謹慎規劃
儲蓄與投資。
04:21
But that's not really the whole story,
92
261410
1976
但這還無法說明整件事的全貌,
04:23
because this has also been a dramatic
time of transformation.
93
263410
2917
因為這也已經變成一個充滿戲劇化的轉變。
04:26
And you've got to admit,
over the last year and a half,
94
266351
2626
我們必須承認,在過去一年半的時間裡,
消費者做了一些相當奇怪的事,
04:29
consumers have been doing
some weird things.
95
269001
2068
因為我們所經歷的事件太不可思議了,
04:31
It's pretty staggering,
what we've lived through.
96
271093
2291
04:33
If you take into account
that 80 percent of all Americans
97
273408
2696
尤其現在的美國人,
有80%是在二次世界大戰之後出生,
04:36
were born after World War II,
98
276128
1396
04:37
this was essentially our Depression.
99
277548
1733
這無疑是我們的經濟大衰退。
04:39
And so, as a result,
some crazy things have happened.
100
279305
2805
也因此,導致一些瘋狂的事情發生。
04:42
I'll give you some examples.
101
282134
1350
我會舉幾個例子,像是牙醫、
04:43
Let's talk about dentists, vasectomies,
guns and shark attacks.
102
283508
4665
男人結紮、槍枝氾濫以及鯊魚攻擊事件,好嗎?
04:48
(Laughter)
103
288197
1788
(笑聲)
04:50
Dentists report molars --
people grinding their teeth,
104
290009
3883
牙醫報告指出,
從臼齒就可以看出人們磨牙,
04:53
coming in and reporting
that they've had stress.
105
293916
2363
顯示他們承受過多的壓力,
04:56
So there's an increase in people
having to have their fillings replaced.
106
296303
3422
因此補牙的人越來越多;
04:59
Gun sales, according to the FBI,
who does background checks,
107
299749
3294
根據FBI的背景調查指出,
槍枝銷售量從1月到現在攀升了近25%;
05:03
are up almost 25 percent since January.
108
303067
3094
05:06
Vasectomies are up 48 percent,
according to the Cornell Institute.
109
306185
4653
根據Cornell機構資料顯示,
男人做結紮手術的比例上升了48%。
05:10
And lastly, but a very good point,
110
310862
2404
最後,也是一個非常好的一點,
05:13
hopefully not related
to the former point I just made,
111
313290
2576
希望跟先前我所提到的都不相關,
05:15
which is that shark attacks
are at their lowest level from 2003.
112
315890
3463
就是鯊魚攻擊的次數降到了2003年以來的最低點。
有人知道為什麼嗎?
05:19
Does anybody know why?
113
319377
1521
05:21
(Laughter)
114
321271
1182
05:22
No one's at the beach.
115
322477
1168
因為没人去沙灘了。反正每一件事都有好的一面。
05:23
So there's a bright side to everything.
116
323669
1896
05:25
But seriously, what we see happening,
117
325589
2186
但是認真地來說,我們所看到發生的一切,
05:27
and the reason I want to stress
that the consumer is not in retreat,
118
327799
3261
以及為什麼我想要去強調現在不是消費者從市場上撤退的時機,
對消費者來說,現在反而是一個絕佳的機會,
05:31
is that this is a tremendous opportunity
119
331084
2015
雖然過度消費曾讓我們走入經濟衰退,
05:33
for the consumer who drove us
into this recession
120
333123
2594
05:35
to lead us right back out.
121
335741
1525
但消費也可以帶領我們走出衰退。
05:37
What I mean by that is we can
move from mindless consumption
122
337290
3342
經過這次的事件,我們可以從愚蠢的消費
05:40
to mindful consumption.
123
340656
2028
轉為聰明的消費,對吧?
05:42
Right?
124
342708
1160
05:43
(Applause)
125
343892
1075
如果你回顧一下過去三十年,
05:44
If you think about the last three decades,
126
344991
2032
90年代還在試圖理解市場運作的消費者,
05:47
the consumer has moved
from savvy about marketing in the '90s,
127
347047
3282
05:50
to gathering all these amazing social
and search tools in this decade.
128
350353
3977
最近十年已經發展到懂得利用驚人的社交及搜尋工具,
05:54
But the one thing holding them back
is the ability to discriminate.
129
354354
3329
唯一能將他們拉回市場的是辨別好壞的能力。
05:57
By restricting their demand,
130
357707
1337
藉由限制他們的需求,消費者才能夠實際地
05:59
consumers can actually align
their values with their spending,
131
359068
3318
衡量消費的價值,
06:02
and drive capitalism and business
to not just be about more,
132
362410
3580
引導資本主義和企業,
讓他們不只在乎數量,而是更在乎品質。
06:06
but to be about better.
133
366014
1166
接下來我要來解釋這點,
06:07
We're going to explain that right now.
134
367204
1977
06:09
Based on Y&R's BrandAsset Valuator,
135
369205
2781
根據Y&R的品牌資產評估系統,
這是VML和Y&R的專有工具,
06:12
proprietary tool of VML
and Young & Rubicam,
136
372010
2701
06:14
we set out to understand
what's been happening in the crisis
137
374735
2884
我們開始了解到,
金融危機在消費市場所扮演的角色。
06:17
with the consumer marketplace.
138
377643
1541
06:19
We found a couple
of really interesting things.
139
379208
2217
我們發現了一些相當有趣的事情,
06:21
We're going to go
through four value shifts
140
381449
2427
我們要來探討引發新型消費行為、
06:23
that we see driving
new consumer behaviors,
141
383900
2336
提供新型態管理法則的
06:26
that offer new management principles.
142
386260
2057
四種價值觀的轉變。
06:28
The first cultural value shift we see
143
388341
1810
首先是文化價值觀的轉變,
06:30
is this tendency toward something
we call "liquid life."
144
390175
2626
現在的生活型態漸漸開始重視流動性;
06:32
This is the movement
145
392825
1150
以前美國人以為的成功,是擁有資產,
06:33
from Americans defining
their success on having things
146
393999
3081
現在則是擁有現金,
06:37
to having liquidity,
147
397104
1282
06:38
because the less excess
that you have around you,
148
398410
2692
因為你購買的非必須品愈少,
生活的負擔就會愈減輕。
06:41
the more nimble and fleet of foot you are.
149
401126
2152
06:43
As a result, déclassé consumption is in.
150
403302
2470
因此,就產生了低調消費。
06:45
Déclassé consumption is the whole idea
that spending money frivolously
151
405796
3935
低調消費不贊成盲目奢侈的消費,
因為那不符合現在的流行趨勢。
06:49
makes you look a little bit anti-fashion.
152
409755
2738
06:52
The management principle
is dollars and cents.
153
412517
2489
這個法則重視的是金錢。
那麼,讓我們先來看看一些低調消費
06:55
So let's look at some examples
of this déclassé consumption
154
415030
2844
這種價值觀轉變的例子。
06:57
that falls out of this value.
155
417898
1428
06:59
The first thing is,
something must be happening
156
419350
2297
第一件事是當P. Diddy(吹牛老爹)宣告
07:01
when P. Diddy vows to tone down his bling.
157
421671
2076
不再穿戴華麗閃亮的服飾,那一定代表某種意義。
07:03
(Laughter)
158
423771
1014
(笑聲)
07:04
But seriously, we also have
this phenomenon
159
424809
2342
但是嚴格地說,
這種現象也發生在廣告業和其他地方,
07:07
on Madison Avenue and in other places,
160
427175
1925
當人們從奢侈的精品店走出來的時候,
07:09
where people are actually
walking out of luxury boutiques
161
429124
2923
手裡拿著一般的紙袋,
07:12
with ordinary, generic paper bags
to hide the brand purchases.
162
432071
3813
裡面卻藏著他們剛買的各種名牌物品。
07:15
We see high-end haggling in fashion today,
163
435908
2977
今天我們看到高檔的流行商品開始降價促銷,
07:18
high-end haggling
for luxury and real estate.
164
438909
2477
高檔的奢侈品和不動產也在降價,
07:21
We also see just a relaxing of ego,
165
441410
2372
我們也看到自尊心的解放,
07:23
and sort of a dismantling of artifice.
166
443806
2252
以及人們不再玩弄巧計。
這是一個發生在遊艇俱樂部的故事,
07:26
This is a story on the yacht club
that's all basically blue collar.
167
446082
3847
成員基本上都是藍領階級,
07:29
Blue-collar yacht club --
where you can join,
168
449953
2174
也就是藍領階級遊艇俱樂部,你可以參加這個俱樂部,
但前題是你必須在船塢上工作,
07:32
but you've got to work in the boatyard
as condition of membership.
169
452151
3235
這是入會的基本條件。
07:35
We also see the trend toward tourism
that's a little bit more low-key:
170
455410
4661
我們也看到未來趨勢朝向
低調觀光旅遊,對吧?
07:40
agritourism -- going to vineyards
and going to farms.
171
460095
3127
農業旅遊,走入葡萄園和農田去實際體驗。
07:43
And then we also see this movement
forward from dollars and cents.
172
463246
3625
然後我們也看到消費者從重視金錢又往前邁了一步,
07:46
What businesses can do to connect
with these new mindsets
173
466895
2715
企業運用這些新觀念所發展出來的想法,
是相當有趣的,
07:49
is really interesting.
174
469634
1167
07:50
A couple things that are kind of cool.
175
470825
1845
有一些看起來還很酷。
07:52
One is that Frito-Lay figured out
this liquidity thing with their consumer.
176
472694
3693
其中一個是Frito-Lay(知名食品公司),他們從消費者身上
觀察到現金的使用狀況。
07:56
They found their consumer had more
money at the beginning of the month,
177
476411
3403
他們發現消費者在月初有較多可運用的錢,
月底則較少,因此他們所做的
07:59
less at the end of the month.
178
479838
1409
就是去改變他們的包裝,
08:01
So they started to change their packaging:
179
481271
2013
月初販賣的包裝比較大,
08:03
larger packs at the beginning
of the month,
180
483308
2022
月底販賣的包裝則較小。
08:05
smaller packaging at the end of the month.
181
485354
2020
另外,真正有趣的是舊金山巨人棒球隊,
08:07
Really interestingly, too,
was the San Francisco Giants.
182
487398
2719
他們採用了動態定價策略,
08:10
They've just instituted dynamic pricing.
183
490141
2245
08:12
It takes into account everything
from the pitcher match-ups,
184
492410
3219
將各種因素列入考量,像是投手與打者的投打記錄、
天氣、球隊紀錄等,
08:15
to the weather, to the team records,
185
495653
1843
08:17
in setting prices for the consumer.
186
497520
2404
作為訂定票價的依據。
08:19
Another quick example of these types
of movements is the rise of Zynga.
187
499948
5031
另一個例子就是Zynga(開發"開心農場"的遊戲廠商)
的快速崛起。
Zynga的崛起,是因為消費者
08:25
Zynga has risen on the consumer's desire
188
505003
2280
不想定期支付固定成本,
08:27
to not want to be locked in to fixed cost.
189
507307
2012
08:29
Again, this theme is about variable
cost, variable living.
190
509343
2760
同樣的,重點是關於變動成本及變動生活,
所以消費者的小額支出便累積出Zynga的巨額收入。
08:32
So micro-payments have become huge.
191
512127
1872
最後,有一些人使用Hulu(免付費網路電視)
08:34
And lastly, some people are using Hulu
192
514023
2579
08:36
as a device to get rid
of their cable bill.
193
516626
2072
作為逃避有線電視帳單的手法。
08:38
So, really clever ideas there
that are being taken ahold of
194
518722
3590
因此,消費者開始採用
一些真正聰明的想法,而企業也開始瞭解到這個現象。
08:42
and that marketers
are starting to understand.
195
522336
2171
第二個價值觀的轉變,
08:44
The second of the four values
is this movement toward
196
524531
2630
是重視道德及公平競賽。
08:47
ethics and fair play.
197
527185
1305
08:48
We see that play itself out
with empathy and respect.
198
528514
3137
消費者表現出來的行為是同理心與尊重,
08:51
The consumer is demanding it.
199
531675
1621
因為這是消費者需要的,
08:53
And, as a result, businesses
must provide not only value,
200
533320
3166
所以企業不只要提供有價值的東西,
還得提供符合消費者的價值觀。
08:56
but values.
201
536510
1152
08:57
Increasingly, consumers are looking
at the culture of the company,
202
537686
3173
漸漸地,消費者開始檢視公司文化,
在市場中觀察企業的行為。
09:00
at their conduct in the marketplace.
203
540883
1745
09:02
So we see with empathy and respect
204
542652
1668
由於消費者重視同理心與尊重,在這次的經濟衰退中
09:04
lots of really hopeful things
come out of this recession.
205
544344
2796
竟產生很多真正有希望的事情。
下面是一些例子,
09:07
I'll give you a few examples.
206
547164
1391
09:08
One is the rise toward communities
and neighborhoods,
207
548579
2525
其中之一是重視社區與鄰里,
並將鄰居當作自己的後備支援系統。
09:11
and increased emphasis on your neighbors
as your support system.
208
551128
3714
09:14
Also, a wonderful by-product
of a really lousy thing,
209
554866
4047
此外,這次的經濟衰退雖然導致了嚴重的失業率,
09:18
which has been unemployment,
210
558937
1368
但卻出現了一個很棒的副產品,
09:20
is a rise in volunteerism
that's been noted in our country.
211
560329
2801
就是目前國人所注意到的義工的增加。
我們也看到這樣的一個現象,
09:23
We also see the phenomenon --
some of you may have "boomerang kids" --
212
563154
3670
你們家裡可能有”賴家王老五”,
09:26
these are "boomerang alumni,"
213
566848
1637
這些人則是返校校友,
09:28
where universities are actually
reconnecting with alumni
214
568509
2733
由大學來聯繫這些畢業校友,
幫助他們找工作、分享專業技能,並進行職業訓練。
09:31
and helping them with jobs,
sharing skills and retraining.
215
571266
2781
09:34
We also talked about character
and professionalism.
216
574071
2548
我們也談論到人格特質與個人專業,
09:36
We had this miracle on the Hudson
in New York City in January,
217
576643
3743
今年一月時,紐約的哈德遜河上發生了機長成功迫降的奇蹟,
09:40
and suddenly Sully has become
a key name on BabyCenter.
218
580410
3976
突然間Sully(機長)這個名字便成了為嬰兒命名的當紅選擇。
09:44
(Laughter)
219
584410
1070
(笑聲)
09:45
So, from a value and values standpoint,
220
585504
2396
因此,從價值及價值觀的觀點來看,
09:47
what companies can do is connect
in lots of different ways.
221
587924
2953
公司能做的是用各種方式與之連結。
09:50
Microsoft is doing something wonderful.
222
590901
1892
微軟做了一些很棒的事,
09:52
They are actually vowing to retrain
two million Americans with IT training,
223
592817
3838
他們對外宣示將訓練2百萬美國人從事資訊行業,
09:56
using their existing infrastructure
to do something good.
224
596679
3102
也就是使用他們既有的設備去做一些好事。
09:59
Also, a really interesting
company is GORE-TEX.
225
599805
2461
另一個有趣的公司是Gore-Tex,
10:02
GORE-TEX is all about
personal accountability
226
602290
2710
Gore-Tex相當強調個人自我的責任感,
不管是主管或是員工都一樣,
10:05
of their management and their employees,
227
605024
1949
10:06
to the point where they really
kind of shun the idea of bosses.
228
606997
3558
所以幾乎用不到主管的權威。
10:10
But they also talk about the fact
that their executives --
229
610579
2765
但他們也談論到,
公司高階主管的所有費用支出,
10:13
all of their expense reports
are put onto their company intranet
230
613368
3072
都條列在公司內部網路供每個員工觀看,
10:16
for everyone to see.
231
616464
1179
10:17
Complete transparency.
232
617667
1719
完全透明,
10:19
Think twice before you have
that bottle of wine.
233
619410
2276
所以高階主管在喝酒前可得三思而後行。
10:21
(Laughter)
234
621710
1057
10:22
The third of the four laws
of post-crisis consumerism
235
622791
2773
第三個法則是
10:25
is about durable living.
236
625588
1485
永續生存。
10:27
We're seeing in our data
that consumers are realizing
237
627097
2537
資料顯示,消費者已經意識到
10:29
this is a marathon, not a sprint.
238
629658
1728
金融危機是一場馬拉松,而非短跑;
10:31
They're digging in and looking
for ways to extract value
239
631410
2859
他們開始認真地尋找方法去取得
每次購買所創造出的價值,
10:34
out of every purchase they make.
240
634293
2093
10:36
Witness the fact that Americans
are holding on to their cars
241
636410
2915
我們看到美國人現在保有同一輛車的時間,
比以前還要久,
10:39
longer than ever before:
9.4 years on average, in March.
242
639349
3862
在今年三月創下歷史紀錄,平均9.4年。
10:43
A record.
243
643235
1151
10:44
We also see the fact that libraries
have become a huge resource for America.
244
644410
3976
我們也看到,圖書館已經變成
美國人很常使用的地方,
10:48
Did you know that 68 percent
of Americans now carry a library card?
245
648410
3842
你知道現在有68%的美國人
辦了圖書證嗎?
10:52
The highest percentage ever
in our nation's history.
246
652276
2465
這在我們國家的紀錄中,是最高的比例。
10:54
So what you see in this trend
is also the accumulation of knowledge.
247
654765
3621
從這個趨勢我們也可以看到
知識的累積,
10:58
Continuing education is up.
248
658410
1719
越來越多人不斷地學習,
11:00
Everything is focused
on betterment, training,
249
660153
2638
每件事都強調改善、訓練、
11:02
development and moving forward.
250
662815
1785
發展及進步。
11:04
We also see a big DIY movement.
251
664624
2537
我們也看到一個DIY的趨勢,
11:07
I was fascinated to learn that 30 percent
of all homes in America
252
667684
4164
我很驚訝有30%的美國人,
動手建造自己的房屋,
11:11
are actually built by owners.
253
671872
1514
11:13
That includes cottages and the like,
254
673410
1858
包括農舍小屋這類的,有30%的人耶...
11:15
but 30 percent.
255
675292
1168
11:16
People are getting their hands dirty,
rolling up their sleeves.
256
676484
3012
他們必須捲起袖子,弄髒雙手,
他們希望取得這類技術。
11:19
They want these skills.
257
679520
1167
11:20
We see it with the phenomenon of raising
backyard hens, chickens and ducks.
258
680711
3564
我們看到有人在後院飼養
母雞、小雞及鴨子,當你計算成本效益後,
11:24
And when you work out the math,
they say it doesn't work,
259
684299
2688
他們卻回答那不重要,他們所重視的是
11:27
but the principle is there;
260
687011
1300
關於永續及自給自足的概念。
11:28
it's about being sustainable
and taking care of yourself.
261
688335
2715
11:31
Then we look at the High Line
in New York City,
262
691074
2611
我們再看看紐約市的High Line長廊式休憩公園,
11:33
an excellent use of reimagining
existing infrastructure
263
693709
2768
將原有的設施重新改造,
賦予全新的面貌,
11:36
for something good,
264
696501
1159
11:37
which is a brand-new park
in New York City.
265
697684
2035
一躍而成紐約市的新地標公園。
11:39
So what brands can do, and companies,
is pay dividends to consumers,
266
699743
4091
因此,品牌或企業能做的,
就是回饋給消費者,
11:43
be a brand that lasts,
267
703858
1528
並承諾大眾
11:45
offer transparency,
268
705410
1389
做一個永續經營、透明的企業,而不僅只是銷售而已。
11:46
promise you're going to be there
beyond today's sale.
269
706823
2494
最佳的例子是Patagonia(成衣商),
11:49
Perfect example of that is Patagonia.
270
709341
2045
11:51
Patagonia's "Footprint Chronicles"
271
711410
1714
Patagonia設計了一套產品追蹤系統,
11:53
basically goes through and tracks
every product they make,
272
713148
3798
可以讓消費者查詢產品的生產過程,
11:56
and gives you social responsibility,
273
716970
1790
並讓消費者瞭解,在每樣產品背後,
11:58
and helps you understand the ethics
behind the product they make.
274
718784
3539
都有自己的社會責任
與道德倫理。
12:02
Another great example is Fidelity.
275
722347
1782
另一個很棒的例子是富達證券,
12:04
Rather than instant cash-back rewards
on your credit or debit purchases,
276
724153
3686
一般發卡公司都是將現金回饋到消費者的信用卡上,
12:07
this is about 529 rewards
for your student education.
277
727863
4896
但富達卻是提供529項助學獎勵金,
作為學生教育補助。
12:12
Or the interesting company Sunrun.
278
732783
2087
或者還有另一個有趣的公司SunRun,
12:14
I love this company.
279
734894
1155
我喜歡這間公司,因為他們提供的產品,
12:16
They've created a consumer collective
280
736073
2067
可以讓消費者將太陽能面板放置在一般家庭裡,
12:18
where they put solar panels on households
281
738164
2346
12:20
and create a consumer-based utility,
282
740534
2095
就像一個小型的家庭電力公司,
12:22
where the electricity they generate
283
742653
1698
並將產生的電力
12:24
is basically pumped back out
into the marketplace.
284
744375
2624
再賣回到市場上,
形成一個由消費者主導的合作模式。
12:27
So it's a consumer-driven co-op.
285
747023
1736
12:28
The fourth post-crisis
consumerism that we see
286
748783
3674
第四種金融危機後的消費價值觀的改變,
是恢復對人的信任,
12:32
is this movement
about "return to the fold."
287
752481
2317
12:34
It's incredibly important right now.
288
754822
1799
這是非常重要的一點,
12:36
Trust is not parceled out, as we all know.
289
756645
2584
因為我們都知道信任無法分配。
12:39
It's now about connecting
to your communities,
290
759253
2192
我們所談的是社區連結與
12:41
connecting to your social networks.
291
761469
1762
社會網絡的連結。
12:43
In my book, I talked about the fact
292
763255
1714
在我的書中有提到,
12:44
that 72 percent of people trust
what other people say
293
764993
2675
72%的人信賴認識的人
12:47
about a brand or a company,
294
767692
1451
介紹的品牌跟公司,只有15%的人相信廣告。
12:49
versus 15 percent on advertising.
295
769167
2042
因此,在這方面,
12:51
So in that respect, cooperative
consumerism has really taken off.
296
771233
3720
互助消費主義已經開始發酵,
12:54
This is about consumers working
together to get what they want
297
774977
2983
消費者們相互合作,
去得到他們想從市場上取得的東西。
12:57
out of the marketplace.
298
777984
1176
先快速地看一下幾個例子,
12:59
Let's look at a couple of quick examples.
299
779184
1977
現在掀起了一股巨大的手工製造風潮,
13:01
The artisanal movement is huge:
300
781185
1573
13:02
everything about locally
derived products and services,
301
782782
3057
他們全都使用當地的產品與服務,
13:05
supporting your local neighborhoods,
302
785863
1784
無論是起司、酒或其他產品,
13:07
whether it's cheeses,
wines and other products.
303
787671
2976
讓當地的居民有生意可做。
13:10
Also this rise of local currencies.
304
790671
2658
同時各地也開始印製流通於當地的貨幣,
13:13
Realizing that it's difficult
to get loans in this environment,
305
793353
2975
因為大家瞭解到在這種環境下,很難取得融資,
所以人們開始只和自己信賴的人做生意,
13:16
you're doing business
with people you trust
306
796352
2059
也只在當地的市場做生意,
13:18
in your local markets.
307
798435
1179
13:19
So this rise of local currency
is another really interesting phenomenon.
308
799638
3868
因此,只限當地流通的貨幣就出現了,
這變成另一個有趣的現象。
13:23
And then they did a recent report
I thought was fascinating.
309
803530
3622
最近有一個報告,
我覺得這個報告很吸引人,
13:27
They actually started, in certain
communities in the United States,
310
807176
3173
報告指出,美國的某些特定社區,
已經開始公布各個家庭的用電量,
13:30
to publish people's electricity usage.
311
810373
2027
13:32
And what they found out is when
that was available for public record,
312
812424
3311
他們發現,一旦公布用電量的資訊,
13:35
the people's electricity usage
in those communities dropped.
313
815759
3070
該社區的用電量就會開始減少。
13:39
Then we also look
at the idea of cow-pooling,
314
819771
2615
再來,我們來看看揪團買牛肉的構想,
13:42
which is the whole phenomenon
of consumers organizing together
315
822410
4195
這是由消費者
自己組織起來,
13:46
to buy meat from organic farms,
that they know is safe and controlled
316
826629
3893
去有機農場裡直接購買肉品,
因為他們認同該農場的管理風格及肉品安全。
13:50
in the way that they want it
to be controlled.
317
830546
2186
13:52
And then there's this other really
interesting movement in California,
318
832756
3567
還有一個很有趣的運動,
就是從加州興起的胡蘿蔔運動。
13:56
which is about carrot mobs.
319
836347
1483
13:57
The traditional thing would be
to boycott, right? Have a stick.
320
837854
3046
傳統的方法是聯合抵制購買,對吧?
但那是對商家的懲罰?為什麼不用獎勵的方式呢?
14:00
Well, why not have a carrot?
321
840924
1346
因此,這些消費者組織起來、集合大家的資源,
14:02
So these are consumers organizing,
pooling their resources
322
842294
3304
14:05
to incentify companies to do good.
323
845622
2764
去鼓勵那些商家表現得更好,
14:08
And then we look at what companies can do.
324
848410
2797
然後我們再來看看企業能做到什麼程度。
14:11
This is all the opportunity
about being a community organizer.
325
851231
3453
由消費者組成的社群能做很多事,
14:14
You have to realize
that you can't fight and control this.
326
854708
2967
你必須了解你不能對抗消費者,也不能控制消費者,
14:17
You actually need to organize it.
327
857699
1610
你只能把消費者組織起來,
14:19
You need to harness it.
You need to give it meaning.
328
859333
2525
駕馭這個組織,賦予它意義。
14:21
And there's lots of really
interesting examples here.
329
861882
3212
這裡有很多有趣的實際案例,
可以供我們參考。
14:25
First is just the rise of the fact
that Zagat's has actually moved out of
330
865118
4793
第一個案例是Zagat(餐廳評比網站),
他們已經跨出自己原本的領域,
14:29
and diversified from rating restaurants,
331
869935
2228
從美食餐廳的評比
14:32
into actually rating health care.
332
872187
2199
跨足到醫療保健的評比。
14:34
So what credentials does Zagat's have?
333
874410
2129
Zagat到底能做什麼呢?
14:36
Well, they have a lot,
334
876563
1170
他們能做的事當然很多,因為他們擁有強大的人脈,對吧?
14:37
because it's their network of people.
335
877757
1844
14:39
So that becomes
a very powerful force for them
336
879625
2543
所以,人脈是他們非常強大力量的來源,
讓他們的品牌更具彈性。
14:42
to make their brand more elastic.
337
882192
2194
14:44
Then you look at the phenomenon of Kogi.
338
884410
2257
再來看看Kogi(賣包韓國烤肉的墨西哥薄餅)現象,
14:47
This Kogi doesn't exist.
It's a moving truck.
339
887196
2977
Kogi並不是餐廳,而是一個流動餐車,對吧?
14:50
It's a moving truck through L.A.,
340
890197
1599
它是一個穿梭在洛杉磯的快餐車,而你只能透過Twitter
14:51
and the only way you can find it
is through Twitter.
341
891820
2496
才能找到它。
14:54
(Laughter)
342
894340
1057
又或者再看看嬌生集團的媽媽經網站,
14:55
Or you look at
343
895421
1153
14:56
Johnson & Johnson's "Momversations,"
a phenomenal blog that's been built up,
344
896598
5062
這是一個驚人的部落格,
15:01
where J&J basically is tapping
into the power of mommy bloggers,
345
901684
4130
嬌生集團抓準了
媽咪部落客的心理,
15:05
allowing them to create a forum
where they can communicate and connect.
346
905838
4448
讓她們建立一個論壇,
可以互相溝通和連結,
15:10
And it's also become a very valuable
advertising revenue for J&J as well.
347
910310
4839
這儼然已經變成一個非常有效的
行銷方式。
15:15
This, plus the fact that you've got
phenomenal work from CEOs,
348
915173
4214
這些以及我們從福特汽車
到Zappos(知名網路鞋店)的執行長上所學到的,
15:19
from Ford to Zappos,
connecting on Twitter,
349
919411
2540
連結上Twitter後,
15:21
creating an open environment,
350
921975
1411
就能創造出一個開放的環境,
15:23
allowing their employees
to be part of the process,
351
923410
3038
讓員工也參予整個過程,
15:26
rather than hidden behind walls.
352
926472
1708
而非藏在幕後。
15:28
You see this rising force
in total transparency and openness
353
928204
4205
企業似乎都已開始採行
資訊透明及公開的策略,
15:32
that companies are starting to adopt,
354
932433
1788
因為消費者希望他們這樣做。
15:34
all because the consumer is demanding it.
355
934245
2307
15:36
So when we look at this and step back,
356
936576
1946
因此,當我們看清這一點,再回頭看看,
15:38
what I believe is that the crisis
that exists today is definitely real.
357
938546
4192
我相信今天發生的危機,
是絕對真實的。
15:42
It's been tremendously
powerful for consumers.
358
942762
2624
金融危機已經對消費者造成極大的衝擊,
15:45
But at the same time,
this is also a tremendous opportunity.
359
945410
3563
但同時,這也代表這是一個絕佳的機會。
15:48
The Chinese character for crisis
is actually the same side
360
948997
3467
中國字對於危機的詮釋,
實際上指的是同一件事,
15:52
of the same coin.
361
952488
1167
15:53
Crisis equals opportunity.
362
953679
1707
危機就是轉機。
15:55
What we're seeing with consumers
right now is the ability for them
363
955410
3494
我們所看到的消費者行為的轉變,
事實上是消費者有能力
15:58
to actually lead us forward
out of this recession.
364
958928
2636
引領我們走出這次的經濟衰退。
16:01
So we believe that values-driven spending
will force capitalism to be better:
365
961588
4798
因此,我們相信,價值導向的消費行為,
將引導促使資本主義走向更好的境界。
16:06
it will drive innovation;
366
966410
1880
它將帶來創新、
16:08
it will make longer-lasting products;
367
968314
2101
創造更持久耐用的產品、
16:10
it will create better,
more intuitive customer service;
368
970439
2596
提供更好、更直觀的服務。
這讓我們有機會與企業一同
16:13
and it will give us the opportunity
to connect with companies
369
973059
2877
16:15
that share the values that we share.
370
975960
2071
互相分享價值。
因此,當我們回過頭去,或跳出來
16:18
So when we look back and step out at this
371
978055
2019
看這些資料顯示為
16:20
and see the beginning of these trends
that we're seeing in our data,
372
980098
3288
正在興起的趨勢時,
16:23
we see a very hopeful picture
for the future of America.
373
983410
2849
我們看到的未來是一個非常有希望的美國。
非常謝謝你們。
16:26
Thank you very much.
374
986283
1168
16:27
(Applause)
375
987475
1816
(鼓掌)
New videos
關於本網站
本網站將向您介紹對學習英語有用的 YouTube 視頻。 您將看到來自世界各地的一流教師教授的英語課程。 雙擊每個視頻頁面上顯示的英文字幕,從那裡播放視頻。 字幕與視頻播放同步滾動。 如果您有任何意見或要求,請使用此聯繫表與我們聯繫。