The global goals we've made progress on -- and the ones we haven't | Michael Green

翻译人员: Yanyan Hong 校对人员: Yolanda Zhang

In 2015, the leaders of the world made a big promise.

2015 年，世界各国的领袖们 做出了一个巨大的承诺——

在接下来的 15 年里，

A promise that over the next 15 years,

the lives of billions of people are going to get better

全球数十亿人的生活将得到改善，

with no one left behind.

没有人会掉队。

That promise is the Sustainable Development Goals --

那个承诺就是，“可持续性发展目标” （Sustainable Development Goals) ——

the SDGs.

简称 SDGs。

We're now three years in;

时间已经过去了3年；

a fifth of the way into the journey.

相当于整个旅程的五分之一。

The clock is ticking.

时间如白驹过隙，

If we offtrack now,

如果我们现在就偏离了既定轨道，

it's going to get harder and harder to hit those goals.

那么实现目标就会变得越来越艰难。

So what I want to do for you today is give you a snapshot

所以，今天我想让各位对于 我们目前已经走到了哪一步

on where we are today,

有一个粗略的认识，

some projections on where we're heading

并对我们未来的 前进方向做出一个预测，

and some ideas on things we might need to do differently.

同时也思考一下， 有哪些地方需要做出调整。

Now, the SDGs are of course spectacularly complicated.

这个可持续性发展目标 的确不容易实现。

I would expect nothing less from the United Nations.

我非常期待联合国能够达成。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

How many goals?

我们有多少个目标？

也许尝试过并测试过的， 有那么3个，7个或10个。

Maybe something tried and tested, like three, seven or 10.

No, let's pick a prime number higher than 10.

不——还是让我们挑个 比10大的质数吧。

Seventeen goals.

17个目标。

I congratulate those of you who've memorized them already.

如果有些人已经记住了 这些目标，那么恭喜你们。

For the rest of us, here they are.

至于其他人，请看这里。

Seventeen goals ranging from ending poverty

十七个目标，从终结贫困，

to inclusive cities

到提升城市的包容性，

to sustainable fisheries;

到发展可持续的渔业；

all a comprehensive plan for the future of our world.

这一切都是为了我们 未来的世界所做的全面计划。

But sadly, a plan without the data to measure it.

但可惜的是，没有一个计划 可以用于衡量它们。

So how are we going to track progress?

那么我们该如何追踪进展呢？

Well, I'm going to use today the Social Progress Index.

别担心，今天我要展示的就是 社会进步指数 (Social Progress Index)。

It's a measure of the quality of life of countries,

它是用于衡量一个 国家的生活质量的标准，

ranging from the basic needs of survival --

范围从基本的生存需求——

food, water, shelter, safety --

食物、水、住所、安全——

through to the foundations of well-being --

一直到保证幸福生活的基础——

教育、资讯、健康以及环境——

education, information, health and the environment --

and opportunity --

还有机会-——

rights, freedom of choice, inclusiveness and access to higher education.

权力、选择自由权、包容度， 以及获得高等教育的机会。

Now, the Social Progress Index doesn't look like the SDGs,

社会进步指数看起来 并不像可持续性发展目标，

but fundamentally, it's measuring the same concepts,

但根本来说，它是在衡量同样的概念，

and the Social Progress Index has the advantage that we have the data.

而社会进步指数有一个优势， 就是我们有相关的数据。

We have 51 indicators drawn from trusted sources

我们有 51 项指标， 都来自可靠的信息来源，

可以用来衡量这些概念。

to measure these concepts.

And also, what we can do because it's an index,

此外，因为它是一个指数，

is add together all those indicators to give us an aggregate score

我们还可以把这些指标加起来 得到一个合计的分数，

用来代表整个可持续性 发展目标的表现。

about how we're performing against the total package of the SDGs.

Now, one caveat.

值得注意的是，

The Social Progress Index is a measure of quality of life.

社会测量指数可以衡量生活品质。

We're not looking at whether this can be achieved

我们要观察的并非是

within the planet's environmental limits.

在地球的环境限制之内 是否能达成目标，

You will need other tools to do that.

这些需要其他的工具才能做到。

So how are we doing on the SDGs?

那么在可持续性发展目标上 我们做得如何呢？

Well, I'm going to put the SDGs on a scale of zero to 100.

我们可以把可持续性发展目标 放到0到100的尺度上来看。

And zero is the absolute worst score on each of those 51 indicators:

0分表示这所有 51 个指标 处于最糟糕的情况：

absolute social progress, zero.

绝对的社会进展，0分。

And then 100 is the minimum standard required to achieve those SDGs.

100分是要达到的 可持续性发展目标的最低标准。

A hundred is where we want to get to by 2030.

我们希望能够在 2030 年达到100分。

So, where did we start on this journey?

那么这趟旅程我们究竟 是从何开始的？

Fortunately, not at zero.

幸运的是，不是从零开始。

In 2015, the world score against the SDGs was 69.1.

在 2015 年，全世界的 可持续发展目标分数是 69.1。

Some way on the way there but quite a long way to go.

这表明，我们已经在向着目标前进， 但还有很长的路要走。

Now let me also emphasize that this world forecast,

我还要强调一下， 这只是世界范围的预测，

which is based on data from 180 countries,

是基于 180 个国家现有的数据，

is population weighted.

以人口数作为加权。

So China has more weight in than Comoros;

所以，中国的权重比科摩罗要高；

India has more weight in than Iceland.

印度的权重比冰岛要高。

But we could unpack this and see how the countries are doing.

但是我们可以将数据进行分解， 看看各个国家的表现。

And the country today that is closest to achieving the SDGs is Denmark.

目前，最接近达成目标的国家是丹麦。

And the country with the furthest to go is Central African Republic.

最前路漫漫的国家是中非共和国。

And everyone else is somewhere in between.

其余的国家都处于它们之间。

So the challenge for the SDGs

所以，可持续性发展目标的挑战

is to try and sweep all these dots across to the right, to 100 by 2030.

就是要试着在 2030 年之前把 所有的点全部扫到最右的一百分。

Can we get there?

我们能做到吗？

Well, with the Social Progress Index, we've got some time series data.

针对社会进步指数， 我们有一些时间序列的资料。

So we have some idea of the trend that the countries are on,

所以我们能多少了解一点国家的趋势，

on which we can build some projections.

可以再通过趋势来做预测。

So let's have a look.

那么我们来看看吧。

Let's start with our top-performing country, Denmark.

我们先从表现最好的国家丹麦开始。

And yes, I'm pleased to say that Denmark is forecast to achieve the SDGs by 2030.

是的，我很高兴的预测，丹麦能在 2030 年实现可持续性发展目标。

Maybe not surprising, but I'll take a win.

或许不出所料， 但是至少先打赢一场。

Let's look at some of the other richer countries of the world --

我们再来看看世界上的 其他较富有的国家——

西方七大工业国 (G7)。

the G7.

我们发现德国和日本会达到， 或至少很接近目标。

And we find that Germany and Japan will get there or thereabouts.

But Canada, France, the UK and Italy are all going to fall short.

但是加拿大，法国，英国 和意大利都还有一定差距。

And the United States?

那么美国呢？

Quite some way back.

还要再差一截。

Now, this is sort of worrying news.

这是个有些让人担忧的消息。

But these are the richest countries in the world,

但是这些是世界上最富有的国家，

并不是人口最多的。

not the most populous.

So let's take a look now at the biggest countries in the world,

现在让我们来看看 世界上最大的那些国家，

the ones that will most affect whether or not we achieve the SDGs.

那些会直接影响到我们能否 实现可持续性发展目标的国家。

And here they are --

就是这些——

countries in the world with a population of higher than 100 million,

世界上人口超过一亿的国家，

ranging from China to Ethiopia.

从中国到埃塞俄比亚。

Obviously, the US and Japan would be in that list,

显然，美国和日本应该也在列表上，

but we've looked at them already.

但是我们已经看过它们，就不重复了。

So here we are.

那么问题就是，

世界上最大的国家是能否 达成可持续性发展目标的关键。

The biggest countries in the world; the dealbreakers for the SDGs.

And the country that's going to make most progress towards the SDGs

而将会在可持续性发展目标上 取得巨大进展的国家是

is Mexico.

墨西哥。

Mexico is going to get to about 87,

墨西哥大概会达到 87 分，

so just shy of where the US is going to get

只是略低于美国会达到的目标，

but quite some way off our SDG target.

但距离我们最终的 可持续性目标还差不少。

Russia comes next.

接下来是俄罗斯，

Then China and Indonesia.

紧接着是中国和印度尼西亚。

Then Brazil -- might've expected Brazil to do a bit better.

然后是巴西—— 本来预期巴西会比这个更好。

Philippines,

菲律宾，

and then a step down to India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nigeria,

然后下面是印度，孟加拉， 巴基斯坦，尼日利亚，

and then Ethiopia.

以及埃塞俄比亚。

So none of these countries are going to hit the SDGs.

可见，这些国家通通都 无法达到可持续性发展目标。

And we can then take these numbers in all the countries of the world

接着我们可以拿全世界 所有国家的数据

to give ourselves a world forecast

来做一个世界性的预测，

on achieving that total package of the SDGs.

预测可持续性发展目标的实现情况。

So remember, in 2015 we started at 69.1.

别忘了，在 2015 年， 我们是从 69.1 分起步的。

I'm pleased to say that over the last three years,

我很高兴地说，在过去的三年里，

we have made some progress.

我们还是取得了一些喜人的进展。

In 2018, we've hit 70.5,

在 2018 年，我们达到了 70.5 分，

and if we project that rate of progress forward to 2030,

如果我们按照这样的趋势 推算到 2030 年，

that's going to get us to 75.2,

我们将会达到 75.2分，

which is obviously a long way short of our target.

显然离我们预期的目标还相差甚远。

Indeed, on current trends, we won't hit the 2030 targets until 2094.

的确，依照目前的趋势，我们要到 2094 年才能实现同样的目标。

Now, I don't know about you,

我不确定你们怎么想，

but I certainly don't want to wait that long.

但是我肯定不想等那么久。

So what can we do about this?

那么我们该怎么办呢？

Well, the first thing to do is we've got to call out the rich countries.

首先我们要做的就是 呼吁这些富有的国家采取行动。

Here are the countries closest to the SDGs,

它们是最接近可持续性 发展目标的国家，

with the greatest resources,

有着丰富的资源，

and they're falling short.

但却没能达到目标。

Maybe they think that this is like the Old World

也许它们认为这就像是旧世界里，

where goals for the UN are just for poor countries and not for them.

联合国的目标只是为了贫穷的 国家制定的，而不是为了它们。

Well, you're wrong.

那你们就大错特错了。

The SDGs are for every country,

可持续性发展目标 是为每一个国家制定的。

and it's shameful that these wealthy countries are falling short.

这些没能实现目标的 富有国家应该感到羞愧。

Every country needs a plan to implement the SDGs

每一个国家都需要制定 一个计划来实施这一目标，

and deliver them for their citizens.

并为它们的公民们去达成这个目标。

G7, other rich countries --

七大工业国，以及其他富有的国家——

get your act together.

要积极行动起来。

The second thing we can do is look a bit further into the data

我们能做的第二件事，就是 在看资料的时候更深入思考，

and see where there are opportunities to accelerate progress

看看哪里有机会可以让进展更快，

or there are negative trends that we can reverse.

或者哪里有机会 让我们逆转负面的趋势。

So I'm going to take you into three areas.

我们可以从三个方面来思考。

One where we're doing quite well,

一方面是我们都做得很好的地方，

one where we really should be doing better

一方面是还需要提升的地方，

and another where we've got some real problems.

还有另一方面是我们有问题 需要解决的地方。

Let's start with the good news,

我们先从好消息开始，

我想要谈的是所谓的 食物和基本的医疗服务。

and I want to talk about what we call nutrition and basic medical care.

This covers SDG 2 on no hunger

这就包含了关于结束饥饿的 可持续性发展目标二，

and the basic elements of SDG 3 on health,

及关于健康的目标三中的基本条款，

so maternal and child mortality, infectious diseases, etc ...

包括母亲和儿童的死亡率， 感染性疾病等等。

This is an area where most of the rich world has hit the SDGs.

在这一方面，世界上大部分 富有的国家都达到了目标。

And we also find, looking at our big countries,

从这些富有国家中，我们也发现，

that the most advanced have got pretty close.

最先进的国家最先达到目标。

Here are our 11 big countries,

这是我们的前 11 个大国，

and if you look at the top,

如果你看最上面的几个国家，

Brazil and Russia are pretty close to the SDG target.

巴西和俄罗斯，它们都很接近目标。

但在最底部——

But at the bottom --

埃塞俄比亚，巴基斯坦—— 还有很长的路要走。

Ethiopia, Pakistan -- a long way to go.

That's where we are in 2018.

这就是截至到 2018 年的情况。

What's our trajectory?

那么我们的发展轨迹又如何呢？

On the current trajectory,

若依照目前的轨迹，

how far are we going to get by 2030?

到2030 年，我们还能走多远？

Well, let's have a look.

我们一起来看看。

Well, what we see is a lot of progress.

很多国家都进展喜人。

See Bangladesh in the middle.

看一下中间的孟加拉国。

If Bangladesh maintains its current rate of progress,

如果孟加拉国维持目前的进展，

it could get very close to that SDG target.

它可能会非常接近 可持续性发展目标。

And Ethiopia at the bottom is making a huge amount of progress

而最下方的埃塞俄比亚目前也有

at the moment.

大幅度的进展。

If that can be maintained, Ethiopia could get a long way.

如果保持这个势头， 埃塞俄比亚能够走得很远。

We add this all up for all the countries of the world

把全世界所有国家的数字加起来，

and our projection is a score of 94.5 by 2030.

我们预测到 2030 年， 我们将会达到 94.5 分。

And if countries like the Philippines, which have grown more slowly,

如果像菲律宾这类成长较慢的国家

could accelerate progress,

能够加速进展，

then we could get a lot closer.

那么我们就会更接近目标。

So there are reasons to be optimistic about SDGs 2 and 3.

所以，我们对可持续性发展目标 二和三可以抱持积极的态度。

But there's another very basic area of the SDGs where we're doing less well,

但是该目标的另一方面 我们就没能做得很好，

which is SDG 6, on water and sanitation.

那就是目标六， 关于水资源和卫生系统。

Again, it's an SDG where most of the rich countries

同样地，这也是大部分富有国家

have already achieved the targets.

已经实现的目标。

And again, for our big countries --

同时，对于大国家来说——

我们 11 个新兴的国家，

our big 11 emerging countries,

we see that some of the countries, like Russia and Mexico,

可以看到其中有一些， 如俄罗斯和墨西哥，

are very close to the target,

都非常接近目标。

but Nigeria and other countries are a very long way back.

但是尼日利亚和其他国家 却还是相差甚远。

So how are we doing on this target?

那么在这些目标上我们做得如何？

What progress are we going to make over the next 12 years

根据目前的进展方向，

在接下来的 12 年里 我们需要实现怎样的进展？

based on the current direction of travel?

Well, here we go ...

好，让我们来看看……

and yes, there is some progress.

是的，就是这些进展。

Our top four countries are all hitting the SDG targets --

排名前四的国家将实现 可持续性发展目标——

some are moving forward quite quickly.

有些国家前进的速度非常快。

But it's not enough to really move us forward significantly.

但这还不足以让我们有显著的进步。

What we see is that for the world as a whole,

就整个世界而言，

we're forecasting a score of around 85, 86 by 2030 --

我们预测到 2030 年前， 我们的分数会在 85 到 86 分左右——

not fast enough.

还不够快。

Now, obviously this is not good news,

显然这不是一个好消息，

but I think what this data also shows is that we could be doing a lot better.

但我认为这些数据也意味着 我们在很多地方还能做得更好。

Water and sanitation is a solved problem.

水和卫生是我们有待解决的问题。

It's about scaling that solution everywhere.

重点是我们要把解决方案 扩展到各个地方，

So if we could accelerate progress in some of those countries

如果我们能够提高这些 成长缓慢的国家

who are improving more slowly --

进展的速度——

Nigeria, the Philippines, etc. --

比如尼日利亚，菲律宾等等——

then we could get a lot closer to the goal.

这样我们就能够更加接近目标。

Indeed, I think SDG 6 is probably the biggest opportunity

的确，我认为在所有 可持续性发展目标中，

of all the SDGs for a step change.

达成目标六的机会最大。

So that's an area we could do better.

所以说，在这个方面 我们可以做得更好。

Let's look finally at an area where we are struggling,

最后再来看看让我们 举步维艰的方面，

which is what we call personal rights and inclusiveness.

其中就包括所谓的人权以及包容性。

This is covering concepts across a range of SDGs.

其中囊括了可持续性 发展目标中的不少概念。

SDG 1 on poverty, SDG 5 on gender equality,

目标一中的贫穷， 目标五中的性别平等，

SDG 10 on inequality,

目标十中的不平等，

SDG 11 on inclusive cities

目标十一中的包容性城市，

and SDG 16 on peace and justice.

以及目标十六中的和平与公正。

So across those SDGs there are themes around rights and inclusiveness,

所以，以上目标中的 主题都与权力和包容性有关，

and those may seem less immediate or pressing

与饥饿和疾病相比，它们或许

than things like hunger and disease,

显得没有那么紧急或迫切，

but rights and inclusion are critical to an agenda of no one left behind.

但是如果要做到不让人落后于时代， 权力和包容就变得至关重要。

So how are we doing on those issues?

那么我们该怎样对待这些问题呢？

Let's start off with personal rights.

让我们从个人权利谈起。

What I'm going to do first is show you our big countries in 2015.

我要先向大家介绍下 2015 年的大国有哪些。

So here they are,

就是这些，

我又把美国和日本重新放了进来，

and I've put the USA and Japan back in,

所以，在全世界我们有 13 个大国。

so it's our 13 biggest countries in the world.

And we see a wide range of scores.

我们看到的分数差距很大。

最上面的美国和日本最先达到目标；

The United States at the top with Japan hitting the goals;

中国还比较落后。

China a long way behind.

So what's been our direction of travel

那么在过去的三年里，

on the rights agenda over the last three years?

我们在权利方面的 进展方向又是什么？

Let's have a look.

我们来看一看。

Well, what we see is actually pretty ugly.

事实上，形势不容乐观。

大多数国家其实并没有 任何进展，甚至还在倒退，

The majority of the countries are standing still or moving backwards,

一些人口大国，像是 巴西，印度，中国，孟加拉

and big countries like Brazil, India, China, Bangladesh

have all seen significant declines.

都有明显的衰退迹象。

This is worrying.

这很令人担忧。

Let's have a look now at inclusiveness.

现在我们来看看包容性。

And inclusiveness is looking at things

包容性要关注的方面

like violence and discrimination against minorities,

有针对少数群体的暴力和歧视、

性别平等、同性恋包容性等。

gender equity, LGBT inclusion, etc...

And as a result, we see that the scores for our big countries are generally lower.

那么我们可以看到人口大国的 分数基本上都很低。

Every country, rich and poor alike, is struggling

每个国家，无论贫穷还是富有，

with building an inclusive society.

在建立一个包容的社会上 都有着各自的挣扎。

But what's our direction of travel?

但我们的发展方向又是什么？

Are we building more inclusive countries?

我们在打造更多 具有包容性的国家吗？

Let's have a look -- progress to 2018.

让我们看看截至 2018 年的进展。

And again we see the world moving backwards:

同样，我们看到世界在倒退：

most countries static,

大部分的国家在原地踏步，

a lot of countries going backwards --

很多国家还在倒退——

Bangladesh moving backwards --

孟加拉国在倒退——

but also, two of the countries that were leading --

但其中有两个国家首当其中——

Brazil and the United States --

巴西和美国——

have gone backwards significantly

在过去三年里，

over the last three years.

它们倒退的情况最严重。

Let's sum this up now for the world as a whole.

现在，让我们以全球的 视角来做个总结。

And what we see on personal rights for the whole world

就全世界的个人权利来说，

is we're forecasting actually a decline in the score on personal rights

我们预测个人权利的分数会下降到

to about 60,

大概 60 分，

and then this decline in the score of inclusiveness to about 42.

包容性的分数将会下降到 42 分。

Now, obviously these things can change quite quickly

显然，随着国家的权力 和法律的改变，

with rights and with changes in law, changes in attitudes,

以及人民大众态度的调整， 这些都有可能很快改变，

but we have to accept that on current trends,

但我们要接受这样一个事实， 依照目前的趋势，

this is probably the most worrying aspect of the SDGs.

这可能是可持续性发展目标中 最令人担忧的一方面了。

How I've depressed you ...

听到这儿，各位是不是 觉得很失望……

(Laughter)

（笑声）

I hope not because I think what we do see

我希望没有， 因为我认为我们所看到的

is that progress is happening in a lot of places

是在很多地方能够看见的进展，

and there are opportunities for accelerating progress.

有很多机会能够加速这些进展。

We are living in a world that is tantalizingly close

我们如今所生活的世界

to ensuring that no one need die of hunger or malaria or diarrhea.

正在努力减少因饥饿、疟疾 或腹泻而死的人口数量。

If we can focus our efforts, mobilize resources,

如果我们能够全力以赴， 充分调动资源，

galvanize the political will,

刺激政治意愿，

that step change is possible.

那么改变就有可能发生。

But in focusing on those really basic, solvable SDGs,

但当我们关注于那些非常基本的、 可解决的可持续性发展目标时，

we mustn't forget the whole package.

我们也不能忘了顾全大局。

The goals are an unwieldy set of indicators, goals and targets,

这些目标是非常大的 一组指标和目标，

but they also include the challenges our world faces.

但它们也包括了 这个世界正面临的挑战。

The fact that the SDGs are focusing attention

可持续性发展目标关注于

on the fact that we face a crisis in personal rights and inclusiveness

我们所面临的人权和包容性危机，

is a positive.

这是一件好事。

If we forget that,

如果我们忘了这点，

if we choose to double down on the SDGs that we can solve,

选择在我们能解决的 可持续性发展目标上加倍投注，

if we go for SDG à la carte and pick the most easy SDGs,

如果我们把各项目标拆开来 寻找最容易解决的部分，

then we will have missed the point of the SDGs,

那么我们的可持续性 发展目标就失去了意义，

we will miss the goals

我们也将错失目标，

and we will have failed on the promise of the SDGs.

无法完成对于该目标的承诺。

Thank you.

谢谢大家。

(Applause)

（掌声）