The global goals we've made progress on -- and the ones we haven't | Michael Green

277,764 views ・ 2018-11-30

TED


Please double-click on the English subtitles below to play the video.

00:12
In 2015, the leaders of the world made a big promise.
0
12480
5496
00:18
A promise that over the next 15 years,
1
18000
2736
00:20
the lives of billions of people are going to get better
2
20760
3576
00:24
with no one left behind.
3
24360
2080
00:27
That promise is the Sustainable Development Goals --
4
27200
3216
00:30
the SDGs.
5
30440
1200
00:32
We're now three years in;
6
32480
1816
00:34
a fifth of the way into the journey.
7
34320
2336
00:36
The clock is ticking.
8
36680
1696
00:38
If we offtrack now,
9
38400
1536
00:39
it's going to get harder and harder to hit those goals.
10
39960
3240
00:44
So what I want to do for you today is give you a snapshot
11
44320
2776
00:47
on where we are today,
12
47120
1736
00:48
some projections on where we're heading
13
48880
3136
00:52
and some ideas on things we might need to do differently.
14
52040
3560
00:57
Now, the SDGs are of course spectacularly complicated.
15
57440
3816
01:01
I would expect nothing less from the United Nations.
16
61280
2456
01:03
(Laughter)
17
63760
1016
01:04
How many goals?
18
64800
1216
01:06
Maybe something tried and tested, like three, seven or 10.
19
66040
3816
01:09
No, let's pick a prime number higher than 10.
20
69880
3416
01:13
Seventeen goals.
21
73320
1720
01:15
I congratulate those of you who've memorized them already.
22
75960
2936
01:18
For the rest of us, here they are.
23
78920
2136
01:21
Seventeen goals ranging from ending poverty
24
81080
3016
01:24
to inclusive cities
25
84120
1376
01:25
to sustainable fisheries;
26
85520
1816
01:27
all a comprehensive plan for the future of our world.
27
87360
3440
01:31
But sadly, a plan without the data to measure it.
28
91720
3720
01:36
So how are we going to track progress?
29
96280
1810
01:38
Well, I'm going to use today the Social Progress Index.
30
98880
3896
01:42
It's a measure of the quality of life of countries,
31
102800
3096
01:45
ranging from the basic needs of survival --
32
105920
3016
01:48
food, water, shelter, safety --
33
108960
2776
01:51
through to the foundations of well-being --
34
111760
2256
01:54
education, information, health and the environment --
35
114040
3336
01:57
and opportunity --
36
117400
1576
01:59
rights, freedom of choice, inclusiveness and access to higher education.
37
119000
5000
02:05
Now, the Social Progress Index doesn't look like the SDGs,
38
125240
3496
02:08
but fundamentally, it's measuring the same concepts,
39
128760
3336
02:12
and the Social Progress Index has the advantage that we have the data.
40
132120
3576
02:15
We have 51 indicators drawn from trusted sources
41
135720
3256
02:19
to measure these concepts.
42
139000
1440
02:21
And also, what we can do because it's an index,
43
141479
2577
02:24
is add together all those indicators to give us an aggregate score
44
144080
3896
02:28
about how we're performing against the total package of the SDGs.
45
148000
4080
02:33
Now, one caveat.
46
153120
1456
02:34
The Social Progress Index is a measure of quality of life.
47
154600
2856
02:37
We're not looking at whether this can be achieved
48
157480
2336
02:39
within the planet's environmental limits.
49
159840
1976
02:41
You will need other tools to do that.
50
161840
1800
02:45
So how are we doing on the SDGs?
51
165200
2480
02:48
Well, I'm going to put the SDGs on a scale of zero to 100.
52
168320
4296
02:52
And zero is the absolute worst score on each of those 51 indicators:
53
172640
4416
02:57
absolute social progress, zero.
54
177080
2496
02:59
And then 100 is the minimum standard required to achieve those SDGs.
55
179600
5096
03:04
A hundred is where we want to get to by 2030.
56
184720
2880
03:08
So, where did we start on this journey?
57
188600
2216
03:10
Fortunately, not at zero.
58
190840
1896
03:12
In 2015, the world score against the SDGs was 69.1.
59
192760
6096
03:18
Some way on the way there but quite a long way to go.
60
198880
2760
03:22
Now let me also emphasize that this world forecast,
61
202320
2616
03:24
which is based on data from 180 countries,
62
204960
2376
03:27
is population weighted.
63
207360
1696
03:29
So China has more weight in than Comoros;
64
209080
2456
03:31
India has more weight in than Iceland.
65
211560
1880
03:34
But we could unpack this and see how the countries are doing.
66
214080
3856
03:37
And the country today that is closest to achieving the SDGs is Denmark.
67
217960
5616
03:43
And the country with the furthest to go is Central African Republic.
68
223600
3600
03:47
And everyone else is somewhere in between.
69
227920
2600
03:51
So the challenge for the SDGs
70
231595
1381
03:53
is to try and sweep all these dots across to the right, to 100 by 2030.
71
233000
5280
03:59
Can we get there?
72
239120
1200
04:01
Well, with the Social Progress Index, we've got some time series data.
73
241040
3336
04:04
So we have some idea of the trend that the countries are on,
74
244400
3296
04:07
on which we can build some projections.
75
247720
2480
04:10
So let's have a look.
76
250880
1216
04:12
Let's start with our top-performing country, Denmark.
77
252120
3016
04:15
And yes, I'm pleased to say that Denmark is forecast to achieve the SDGs by 2030.
78
255160
4960
04:20
Maybe not surprising, but I'll take a win.
79
260800
3136
04:23
Let's look at some of the other richer countries of the world --
80
263960
3056
04:27
the G7.
81
267040
1215
04:28
And we find that Germany and Japan will get there or thereabouts.
82
268279
4081
04:33
But Canada, France, the UK and Italy are all going to fall short.
83
273079
6417
04:39
And the United States?
84
279520
1736
04:41
Quite some way back.
85
281280
1240
04:43
Now, this is sort of worrying news.
86
283880
2736
04:46
But these are the richest countries in the world,
87
286640
2376
04:49
not the most populous.
88
289040
1816
04:50
So let's take a look now at the biggest countries in the world,
89
290880
2976
04:53
the ones that will most affect whether or not we achieve the SDGs.
90
293880
3336
04:57
And here they are --
91
297240
1416
04:58
countries in the world with a population of higher than 100 million,
92
298680
3216
05:01
ranging from China to Ethiopia.
93
301920
2056
05:04
Obviously, the US and Japan would be in that list,
94
304000
2496
05:06
but we've looked at them already.
95
306520
1616
05:08
So here we are.
96
308160
1216
05:09
The biggest countries in the world; the dealbreakers for the SDGs.
97
309400
3536
05:12
And the country that's going to make most progress towards the SDGs
98
312960
3696
05:16
is Mexico.
99
316680
2136
05:18
Mexico is going to get to about 87,
100
318840
2016
05:20
so just shy of where the US is going to get
101
320880
2376
05:23
but quite some way off our SDG target.
102
323280
2200
05:26
Russia comes next.
103
326160
1776
05:27
Then China and Indonesia.
104
327960
2616
05:30
Then Brazil -- might've expected Brazil to do a bit better.
105
330600
3056
05:33
Philippines,
106
333680
1296
05:35
and then a step down to India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nigeria,
107
335000
5416
05:40
and then Ethiopia.
108
340440
1280
05:42
So none of these countries are going to hit the SDGs.
109
342960
3336
05:46
And we can then take these numbers in all the countries of the world
110
346320
3216
05:49
to give ourselves a world forecast
111
349560
1816
05:51
on achieving that total package of the SDGs.
112
351400
2896
05:54
So remember, in 2015 we started at 69.1.
113
354320
4656
05:59
I'm pleased to say that over the last three years,
114
359000
2376
06:01
we have made some progress.
115
361400
1496
06:02
In 2018, we've hit 70.5,
116
362920
3400
06:07
and if we project that rate of progress forward to 2030,
117
367160
3256
06:10
that's going to get us to 75.2,
118
370440
2800
06:13
which is obviously a long way short of our target.
119
373960
3160
06:17
Indeed, on current trends, we won't hit the 2030 targets until 2094.
120
377880
6400
06:26
Now, I don't know about you,
121
386360
1376
06:27
but I certainly don't want to wait that long.
122
387760
2376
06:30
So what can we do about this?
123
390160
1400
06:32
Well, the first thing to do is we've got to call out the rich countries.
124
392480
3416
06:35
Here are the countries closest to the SDGs,
125
395920
2816
06:38
with the greatest resources,
126
398760
1696
06:40
and they're falling short.
127
400480
1280
06:42
Maybe they think that this is like the Old World
128
402440
2896
06:45
where goals for the UN are just for poor countries and not for them.
129
405360
3776
06:49
Well, you're wrong.
130
409160
1216
06:50
The SDGs are for every country,
131
410400
2096
06:52
and it's shameful that these wealthy countries are falling short.
132
412520
3096
06:55
Every country needs a plan to implement the SDGs
133
415640
2896
06:58
and deliver them for their citizens.
134
418560
1896
07:00
G7, other rich countries --
135
420480
2056
07:02
get your act together.
136
422560
1200
07:05
The second thing we can do is look a bit further into the data
137
425160
3416
07:08
and see where there are opportunities to accelerate progress
138
428600
3096
07:11
or there are negative trends that we can reverse.
139
431720
2520
07:15
So I'm going to take you into three areas.
140
435000
2056
07:17
One where we're doing quite well,
141
437080
2096
07:19
one where we really should be doing better
142
439200
2256
07:21
and another where we've got some real problems.
143
441480
2400
07:25
Let's start with the good news,
144
445400
1616
07:27
and I want to talk about what we call nutrition and basic medical care.
145
447040
4296
07:31
This covers SDG 2 on no hunger
146
451360
2456
07:33
and the basic elements of SDG 3 on health,
147
453840
2336
07:36
so maternal and child mortality, infectious diseases, etc ...
148
456200
4416
07:40
This is an area where most of the rich world has hit the SDGs.
149
460640
4176
07:44
And we also find, looking at our big countries,
150
464840
2536
07:47
that the most advanced have got pretty close.
151
467400
3136
07:50
Here are our 11 big countries,
152
470560
1976
07:52
and if you look at the top,
153
472560
1336
07:53
Brazil and Russia are pretty close to the SDG target.
154
473920
3056
07:57
But at the bottom --
155
477000
1256
07:58
Ethiopia, Pakistan -- a long way to go.
156
478280
2296
08:00
That's where we are in 2018.
157
480600
1776
08:02
What's our trajectory?
158
482400
1256
08:03
On the current trajectory,
159
483680
1656
08:05
how far are we going to get by 2030?
160
485360
2416
08:07
Well, let's have a look.
161
487800
1336
08:09
Well, what we see is a lot of progress.
162
489160
2736
08:11
See Bangladesh in the middle.
163
491920
1696
08:13
If Bangladesh maintains its current rate of progress,
164
493640
3056
08:16
it could get very close to that SDG target.
165
496720
3096
08:19
And Ethiopia at the bottom is making a huge amount of progress
166
499840
3456
08:23
at the moment.
167
503320
1216
08:24
If that can be maintained, Ethiopia could get a long way.
168
504560
3160
08:28
We add this all up for all the countries of the world
169
508640
2496
08:31
and our projection is a score of 94.5 by 2030.
170
511160
5696
08:36
And if countries like the Philippines, which have grown more slowly,
171
516880
3216
08:40
could accelerate progress,
172
520120
1296
08:41
then we could get a lot closer.
173
521440
2336
08:43
So there are reasons to be optimistic about SDGs 2 and 3.
174
523800
3960
08:48
But there's another very basic area of the SDGs where we're doing less well,
175
528480
4376
08:52
which is SDG 6, on water and sanitation.
176
532880
3000
08:56
Again, it's an SDG where most of the rich countries
177
536560
2736
08:59
have already achieved the targets.
178
539320
1936
09:01
And again, for our big countries --
179
541280
1696
09:03
our big 11 emerging countries,
180
543000
2136
09:05
we see that some of the countries, like Russia and Mexico,
181
545160
2736
09:07
are very close to the target,
182
547920
2096
09:10
but Nigeria and other countries are a very long way back.
183
550040
3680
09:14
So how are we doing on this target?
184
554440
1896
09:16
What progress are we going to make over the next 12 years
185
556360
3176
09:19
based on the current direction of travel?
186
559560
1960
09:22
Well, here we go ...
187
562080
1616
09:23
and yes, there is some progress.
188
563720
1776
09:25
Our top four countries are all hitting the SDG targets --
189
565520
2696
09:28
some are moving forward quite quickly.
190
568240
2216
09:30
But it's not enough to really move us forward significantly.
191
570480
3376
09:33
What we see is that for the world as a whole,
192
573880
2256
09:36
we're forecasting a score of around 85, 86 by 2030 --
193
576160
5416
09:41
not fast enough.
194
581600
1200
09:43
Now, obviously this is not good news,
195
583880
1976
09:45
but I think what this data also shows is that we could be doing a lot better.
196
585880
4256
09:50
Water and sanitation is a solved problem.
197
590160
2576
09:52
It's about scaling that solution everywhere.
198
592760
2576
09:55
So if we could accelerate progress in some of those countries
199
595360
2896
09:58
who are improving more slowly --
200
598280
1576
09:59
Nigeria, the Philippines, etc. --
201
599880
1656
10:01
then we could get a lot closer to the goal.
202
601560
2080
10:04
Indeed, I think SDG 6 is probably the biggest opportunity
203
604480
4416
10:08
of all the SDGs for a step change.
204
608920
2480
10:13
So that's an area we could do better.
205
613920
1800
10:16
Let's look finally at an area where we are struggling,
206
616800
2816
10:19
which is what we call personal rights and inclusiveness.
207
619640
3776
10:23
This is covering concepts across a range of SDGs.
208
623440
2736
10:26
SDG 1 on poverty, SDG 5 on gender equality,
209
626200
4336
10:30
SDG 10 on inequality,
210
630560
2096
10:32
SDG 11 on inclusive cities
211
632680
2336
10:35
and SDG 16 on peace and justice.
212
635040
3656
10:38
So across those SDGs there are themes around rights and inclusiveness,
213
638720
3816
10:42
and those may seem less immediate or pressing
214
642560
2456
10:45
than things like hunger and disease,
215
645040
2136
10:47
but rights and inclusion are critical to an agenda of no one left behind.
216
647200
5040
10:53
So how are we doing on those issues?
217
653240
1715
10:55
Let's start off with personal rights.
218
655520
2016
10:57
What I'm going to do first is show you our big countries in 2015.
219
657560
4256
11:01
So here they are,
220
661840
1216
11:03
and I've put the USA and Japan back in,
221
663080
1896
11:05
so it's our 13 biggest countries in the world.
222
665000
2176
11:07
And we see a wide range of scores.
223
667200
1816
11:09
The United States at the top with Japan hitting the goals;
224
669040
2936
11:12
China a long way behind.
225
672000
2136
11:14
So what's been our direction of travel
226
674160
1976
11:16
on the rights agenda over the last three years?
227
676160
2496
11:18
Let's have a look.
228
678680
1256
11:19
Well, what we see is actually pretty ugly.
229
679960
3096
11:23
The majority of the countries are standing still or moving backwards,
230
683080
3896
11:27
and big countries like Brazil, India, China, Bangladesh
231
687000
3896
11:30
have all seen significant declines.
232
690920
2560
11:34
This is worrying.
233
694240
1200
11:36
Let's have a look now at inclusiveness.
234
696480
2936
11:39
And inclusiveness is looking at things
235
699440
1856
11:41
like violence and discrimination against minorities,
236
701320
2736
11:44
gender equity, LGBT inclusion, etc...
237
704080
3136
11:47
And as a result, we see that the scores for our big countries are generally lower.
238
707240
4296
11:51
Every country, rich and poor alike, is struggling
239
711560
2496
11:54
with building an inclusive society.
240
714080
1920
11:56
But what's our direction of travel?
241
716720
1696
11:58
Are we building more inclusive countries?
242
718440
2096
12:00
Let's have a look -- progress to 2018.
243
720560
2120
12:03
And again we see the world moving backwards:
244
723280
2336
12:05
most countries static,
245
725640
1736
12:07
a lot of countries going backwards --
246
727400
1936
12:09
Bangladesh moving backwards --
247
729360
1776
12:11
but also, two of the countries that were leading --
248
731160
2536
12:13
Brazil and the United States --
249
733720
1616
12:15
have gone backwards significantly
250
735360
1816
12:17
over the last three years.
251
737200
1360
12:19
Let's sum this up now for the world as a whole.
252
739760
2496
12:22
And what we see on personal rights for the whole world
253
742280
2896
12:25
is we're forecasting actually a decline in the score on personal rights
254
745200
3616
12:28
to about 60,
255
748840
1416
12:30
and then this decline in the score of inclusiveness to about 42.
256
750280
4240
12:35
Now, obviously these things can change quite quickly
257
755480
2456
12:37
with rights and with changes in law, changes in attitudes,
258
757960
3936
12:41
but we have to accept that on current trends,
259
761920
2296
12:44
this is probably the most worrying aspect of the SDGs.
260
764240
3880
12:49
How I've depressed you ...
261
769720
1296
12:51
(Laughter)
262
771040
1296
12:52
I hope not because I think what we do see
263
772360
2616
12:55
is that progress is happening in a lot of places
264
775000
3416
12:58
and there are opportunities for accelerating progress.
265
778440
3096
13:01
We are living in a world that is tantalizingly close
266
781560
3736
13:05
to ensuring that no one need die of hunger or malaria or diarrhea.
267
785320
5816
13:11
If we can focus our efforts, mobilize resources,
268
791160
3216
13:14
galvanize the political will,
269
794400
1736
13:16
that step change is possible.
270
796160
1920
13:19
But in focusing on those really basic, solvable SDGs,
271
799640
3776
13:23
we mustn't forget the whole package.
272
803440
2296
13:25
The goals are an unwieldy set of indicators, goals and targets,
273
805760
5096
13:30
but they also include the challenges our world faces.
274
810880
3536
13:34
The fact that the SDGs are focusing attention
275
814440
2496
13:36
on the fact that we face a crisis in personal rights and inclusiveness
276
816960
4016
13:41
is a positive.
277
821000
1520
13:43
If we forget that,
278
823200
1256
13:44
if we choose to double down on the SDGs that we can solve,
279
824480
4016
13:48
if we go for SDG à la carte and pick the most easy SDGs,
280
828520
5656
13:54
then we will have missed the point of the SDGs,
281
834200
3376
13:57
we will miss the goals
282
837600
1696
13:59
and we will have failed on the promise of the SDGs.
283
839320
3400
14:03
Thank you.
284
843600
1216
14:04
(Applause)
285
844840
3640
About this website

This site will introduce you to YouTube videos that are useful for learning English. You will see English lessons taught by top-notch teachers from around the world. Double-click on the English subtitles displayed on each video page to play the video from there. The subtitles scroll in sync with the video playback. If you have any comments or requests, please contact us using this contact form.

https://forms.gle/WvT1wiN1qDtmnspy7