The global goals we've made progress on -- and the ones we haven't | Michael Green

譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Yanyan Hong

In 2015, the leaders of the world made a big promise.

2015 年，世界領袖們 做出了一個大承諾。

A promise that over the next 15 years,

這個承諾就是，在接下來十五年，

the lives of billions of people are going to get better

數十億人的生活會變得更好，

with no one left behind.

沒有人會被丟下。

That promise is the Sustainable Development Goals --

那個承諾，就是永續發展目標——

the SDGs.

縮寫 SDGs。

We're now three years in;

現在已經過了三年，

a fifth of the way into the journey.

走過了整個旅程的五分之一。

The clock is ticking.

時間不斷流逝。

If we offtrack now,

如果我們現在就偏離軌道，

it's going to get harder and harder to hit those goals.

要達成目標會變得越來越難。

So what I want to do for you today is give you a snapshot

所以，今天我想要做的， 是讓各位能約略了解

on where we are today,

今天我們走到哪裡了，

some projections on where we're heading

對未來我們會朝哪裡 前進做一些預測，

and some ideas on things we might need to do differently.

也思考一下有哪些地方， 我們需要用不同的方式來做。

Now, the SDGs are of course spectacularly complicated.

當然，永續發展目標是非常複雜的。

I would expect nothing less from the United Nations.

很符合我對聯合國的期望。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）要多少個目標？

How many goals?

Maybe something tried and tested, like three, seven or 10.

也許有嘗試過且有測試過的， 比如，三個、七個，或十個。

No, let's pick a prime number higher than 10.

不，咱們挑個比十大的質數吧。

Seventeen goals.

十七個目標。

I congratulate those of you who've memorized them already.

如果你已經把那些目標 都記下來了，我要恭喜你。

For the rest of us, here they are.

至於其他人，目標在這裡。

Seventeen goals ranging from ending poverty

十七個目標，從終結貧困，

to inclusive cities

到包容城市，到永續漁業；

to sustainable fisheries;

all a comprehensive plan for the future of our world.

都是為了我們世界的未來 所做的全面計畫。

But sadly, a plan without the data to measure it.

但，感傷的是，沒有資料 可以測量這個計畫。

So how are we going to track progress?

所以，我們要如何追蹤進展？

Well, I'm going to use today the Social Progress Index.

嗯，今天，我要用的 是社會進步指數。

It's a measure of the quality of life of countries,

它是針對國家生活品質 所做的一種測量值，

ranging from the basic needs of survival --

範圍從基本的生存需求——

food, water, shelter, safety --

食物、水、庇護所、安全——

through to the foundations of well-being --

一直到幸福的基礎——

education, information, health and the environment --

教育、資訊、健康，及環境——

and opportunity --

及機會——權利、做選擇的自由、

rights, freedom of choice, inclusiveness and access to higher education.

包容，及取得高等教育的途徑。

Now, the Social Progress Index doesn't look like the SDGs,

社會進步指數看起來 並不像永續發展目標，

but fundamentally, it's measuring the same concepts,

但，根本上， 它是在測量同樣的概念，

and the Social Progress Index has the advantage that we have the data.

而社會進步指數有一項優勢， 就是我們有數據。

We have 51 indicators drawn from trusted sources

我們有 51 項指標， 都來自可信任的來源，

to measure these concepts.

可用來測量這些概念。

And also, what we can do because it's an index,

此外，因為它是一個指數，

is add together all those indicators to give us an aggregate score

我們還能把所有這些指標加起來， 得到一個合計的分數，

about how we're performing against the total package of the SDGs.

代表我們對於整套 永續發展目標的表現。

Now, one caveat.

有件事要注意。

The Social Progress Index is a measure of quality of life.

社會進步指數是 生活品質的測量值。

We're not looking at whether this can be achieved

我們在看的並不是在地球的 環境限制之內是否能達成它。

within the planet's environmental limits.

You will need other tools to do that.

需要其他工具才能做到這一點。

So how are we doing on the SDGs?

所以，在永續發展目標上， 我們做得如何？

Well, I'm going to put the SDGs on a scale of zero to 100.

我要把永續發展目標放到 零到一百的評分尺度上。

And zero is the absolute worst score on each of those 51 indicators:

零分表示這所有 51 個 指標最糟糕的分數：

absolute social progress, zero.

絕對的社會進展，零分。

And then 100 is the minimum standard required to achieve those SDGs.

一百分是要達到永續發展 目標的最低標準。

A hundred is where we want to get to by 2030.

我們希望在 2030 年能達到一百分。

So, where did we start on this journey?

所以，我們在這趟旅程的 起始點在哪裡？

Fortunately, not at zero.

幸運的是，並非從零分開始。

In 2015, the world score against the SDGs was 69.1.

世界的永續發展目標

在 2015 年的分數是 69.1 分。

Some way on the way there but quite a long way to go.

已經在朝目標前進， 但還有很長的路要走。

Now let me also emphasize that this world forecast,

我也得要強調一下， 這是世界預測，

which is based on data from 180 countries,

它的根據是 180 個國家的資料，

is population weighted.

以人口數做加權。

So China has more weight in than Comoros;

所以，中國的權重比葛摩還要高；

India has more weight in than Iceland.

印度的權重比冰島還要高。

But we could unpack this and see how the countries are doing.

但，我們能將它拆開來， 看國家的表現。

And the country today that is closest to achieving the SDGs is Denmark.

現今，最接近達成目標的國家

是丹麥。

And the country with the furthest to go is Central African Republic.

還有最長的路要走的 國家是中非共和國。

And everyone else is somewhere in between.

其他的國家都在它們之間。

So the challenge for the SDGs

所以，永續發展目標的挑戰 就是要試著在 2030 年

is to try and sweep all these dots across to the right, to 100 by 2030.

把所有這些資料點都掃到 最右邊一百分的地方。

Can we get there?

我們能做到嗎？

Well, with the Social Progress Index, we've got some time series data.

針對社會進步指數， 我們有一些時間數列的資料。

So we have some idea of the trend that the countries are on,

所以，我們能多少 了解一點國家的趨勢，

on which we can build some projections.

我們可以再利用趨勢來做預測。

So let's have a look.

所以，咱們來看看吧。 咱們從表現最好的國家丹麥開始。

Let's start with our top-performing country, Denmark.

And yes, I'm pleased to say that Denmark is forecast to achieve the SDGs by 2030.

是的，我很高興能夠說，預測丹麥

能在 2030 年達成永續發展目標。

Maybe not surprising, but I'll take a win.

也許不讓人意外， 但也是一場勝仗。

Let's look at some of the other richer countries of the world --

咱們來看看世界上其他較富有的 國家——世界七大工業國家。

the G7.

我們發現，德國和日本 會達到目標，或很接近。

And we find that Germany and Japan will get there or thereabouts.

But Canada, France, the UK and Italy are all going to fall short.

但加拿大、法國、英國，

和義大利都沒辦法。

And the United States?

美國呢？

Quite some way back.

還要再差一點。

Now, this is sort of worrying news.

這是蠻讓人擔心的消息。

But these are the richest countries in the world,

但，這些是世界上最富有的國家，

not the most populous.

不是最多人口的國家。

So let's take a look now at the biggest countries in the world,

所以，現在咱們來看看 世界上最大的國家，

the ones that will most affect whether or not we achieve the SDGs.

最會影響到我們是否能達成 永續發展目標的國家。

And here they are --

就是這些國家——世界上 人口超過一億人的國家，

countries in the world with a population of higher than 100 million,

ranging from China to Ethiopia.

範圍從中國到衣索比亞。

Obviously, the US and Japan would be in that list,

很顯然，美國和日本都會在名單上，

but we've looked at them already.

但我們已經看過它們了。

So here we are.

所以，來了。世界上最大的國家：

The biggest countries in the world; the dealbreakers for the SDGs.

能否達成永續發展目標的關鍵。

And the country that's going to make most progress towards the SDGs

將會在永續發展目標上 有最大進展的國家

is Mexico.

是墨西哥。

Mexico is going to get to about 87,

墨西哥會達到大約 87 分，

so just shy of where the US is going to get

只比美國會達到的分數差一點，

but quite some way off our SDG target.

但離我們的永續發展目標還相當遠。

Russia comes next.

下一個是俄國。

Then China and Indonesia.

接著是中國和印尼。

Then Brazil -- might've expected Brazil to do a bit better.

然後是巴西——本來預期 巴西會比這好一點的。

Philippines,

菲律賓，

and then a step down to India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nigeria,

接著下面是印度、孟加拉共和國、

巴基斯坦、奈及利亞， 接著是衣索比亞。

and then Ethiopia.

So none of these countries are going to hit the SDGs.

這些國家通通不會 達成永續發展目標。

And we can then take these numbers in all the countries of the world

接著，我們可以拿全世界 所有國家的這些數字

to give ourselves a world forecast

來做一個世界預測，

on achieving that total package of the SDGs.

預測永續發展目標的整體達成度。

So remember, in 2015 we started at 69.1.

別忘了，在 2015 年， 我們是從 69.1 分開始的。

I'm pleased to say that over the last three years,

我很高興能夠說，在過去三年間，

we have made some progress.

我們有一些進展。

In 2018, we've hit 70.5,

2018 年，我們達到了 70.5 分，

and if we project that rate of progress forward to 2030,

如果我們把這樣的進展率 推算到 2030 年，

that's going to get us to 75.2,

我們可以達到 75.2 分，

which is obviously a long way short of our target.

很顯然，離我們的目標還很遠。

Indeed, on current trends, we won't hit the 2030 targets until 2094.

的確，依目前的趨勢，

我們要到 2094 年才能 達到目標，不是 2030 年。

Now, I don't know about you,

我不知道你們怎麼樣， 但我是絕對不想等那麼久。

but I certainly don't want to wait that long.

So what can we do about this?

所以，我們能怎麼辦？

Well, the first thing to do is we've got to call out the rich countries.

嗯，第一件事， 我們得召集富有國家。

Here are the countries closest to the SDGs,

它們是最接近永續發展目標的國家，

with the greatest resources,

且最有資源，卻又做不到目標。

and they're falling short.

Maybe they think that this is like the Old World

也許，它們認為這就像是 舊世界（東半球），

where goals for the UN are just for poor countries and not for them.

聯合國的目標只是為 貧窮國家設定的，不是它們。

Well, you're wrong.

嗯，你們錯了。永續發展 目標是給每個國家的，

The SDGs are for every country,

and it's shameful that these wealthy countries are falling short.

這些富有的國家沒達到 目標實在很可恥。

Every country needs a plan to implement the SDGs

每個國家都需要一個計畫 來導入永續發展目標，

and deliver them for their citizens.

並為其公民實現這些目標。

G7, other rich countries --

七大工業國家，其他富有國家—— 振作起來好好做。

get your act together.

The second thing we can do is look a bit further into the data

我們能做的第二件事， 就是在看資料時更深入一點，

and see where there are opportunities to accelerate progress

看看哪裡有機會可以讓進展更快，

or there are negative trends that we can reverse.

或是哪裡有我們可以逆轉的負面趨勢。

So I'm going to take you into three areas.

所以，我要帶各位進入三個領域。

One where we're doing quite well,

其中一個，我們做得很好，

one where we really should be doing better

其中一個，我們應該要能做更好，

and another where we've got some real problems.

還有一個，我們真的 有些問題要解決。

Let's start with the good news,

咱們先從好消息開始，

and I want to talk about what we call nutrition and basic medical care.

我想要談的，是我們所謂的 營養和基本醫療照護。

This covers SDG 2 on no hunger

這就包含了關於終止飢餓的 永續發展目標二，

and the basic elements of SDG 3 on health,

及關於健康的目標三 底下的基本元素，

so maternal and child mortality, infectious diseases, etc ...

母親和孩童的死亡率， 感染性疾病……

This is an area where most of the rich world has hit the SDGs.

在這個領域中，大部分的 富有國家都達到了永續發展目標。

And we also find, looking at our big countries,

從這些國家當中，我們也發現，

that the most advanced have got pretty close.

最先進的國家最靠近目標。

Here are our 11 big countries,

這是我們的前十一大國家，

and if you look at the top,

請看看頂端，巴西和俄國 都很靠近永續發展目標。

Brazil and Russia are pretty close to the SDG target.

But at the bottom --

但在底部——衣索比亞、 巴基斯坦——還有很長的路要走。

Ethiopia, Pakistan -- a long way to go.

That's where we are in 2018.

這是我們 2018 年的狀況。 我們的軌道是什麼？

What's our trajectory?

On the current trajectory,

若依目前的軌道，

how far are we going to get by 2030?

到 2030 年，我們能走多遠？

Well, let's have a look.

咱們來看看。

Well, what we see is a lot of progress.

我們看到的是許多進展。

See Bangladesh in the middle.

中間的是孟加拉共和國。

If Bangladesh maintains its current rate of progress,

如果孟加拉共和國 維持目前的進展，

it could get very close to that SDG target.

它可能會非常接近永續發展目標。

And Ethiopia at the bottom is making a huge amount of progress

而衣索比亞在底下， 目前它的進展相當大，

at the moment.

If that can be maintained, Ethiopia could get a long way.

如果能維持下去， 衣索比亞可以走得很遠。

We add this all up for all the countries of the world

我們把全世界所有 國家的數字都加起來，

and our projection is a score of 94.5 by 2030.

我們預測，

2030 年的分數會是 94.5 分。

And if countries like the Philippines, which have grown more slowly,

如果像菲律賓這類成長比較慢的國家

could accelerate progress,

能夠加速進展， 那麼我們就能離目標更近。

then we could get a lot closer.

So there are reasons to be optimistic about SDGs 2 and 3.

所以，對永續發展目標二 和三抱持樂觀是合理的。

But there's another very basic area of the SDGs where we're doing less well,

但有另一個永續發展目標的基本領域，

我們就沒有做得很好，

which is SDG 6, on water and sanitation.

那就是關於水和衛生的 永續發展目標六。

Again, it's an SDG where most of the rich countries

同樣的，這也是大部分富有國家

have already achieved the targets.

已經達成的永續發展目標。

And again, for our big countries --

且，同樣的，大國——

our big 11 emerging countries,

我們的十一個新興大國，

we see that some of the countries, like Russia and Mexico,

我們可以發現，當中有些國家， 如俄國和墨西哥，

are very close to the target,

都非常接近目標，

but Nigeria and other countries are a very long way back.

但奈及利亞和其他國家 則落後非常多。

So how are we doing on this target?

所以，在這個目標上， 我們做得如何？

What progress are we going to make over the next 12 years

根據目前的行進方向，

在接下來十二年， 我們會有什麼進展？

based on the current direction of travel?

Well, here we go ...

嗯，來看吧……

and yes, there is some progress.

是的，有一些進展。

Our top four countries are all hitting the SDG targets --

排名前四的國家達到了 永續發展目標——

some are moving forward quite quickly.

有些國家向前進的速度非常快。

But it's not enough to really move us forward significantly.

但這樣還不足夠 讓我們有顯著的進展。

What we see is that for the world as a whole,

我們可以看到，就整個世界來說，

we're forecasting a score of around 85, 86 by 2030 --

我們預測 2030 年的分數

會在 85 或 86 分——

not fast enough.

不夠快。

Now, obviously this is not good news,

很顯然，這不是好消息，

but I think what this data also shows is that we could be doing a lot better.

但我認為這些資料也意味著 我們還可以做得更好許多。

Water and sanitation is a solved problem.

水和衛生的問題已經解決。

It's about scaling that solution everywhere.

重點是要把解決方案的 規模做大，擴展到各地。

So if we could accelerate progress in some of those countries

所以，如果我們能幫一些 改善緩慢的國家加速進展——

who are improving more slowly --

Nigeria, the Philippines, etc. --

奈及利亞、菲律賓等等——

then we could get a lot closer to the goal.

那麼我們就可以更接近目標許多。

Indeed, I think SDG 6 is probably the biggest opportunity

的確，我認為在所有永續發展目標中，

目標六可能是做到 步伐調整的最大機會。

of all the SDGs for a step change.

So that's an area we could do better.

這個領域，我們可以做得更好。

Let's look finally at an area where we are struggling,

咱們最後來看看一個 讓我們很掙扎的領域，

which is what we call personal rights and inclusiveness.

就是我們所謂的個人權利和包容。

This is covering concepts across a range of SDGs.

這領域包含了永續發展 目標的不少概念。

SDG 1 on poverty, SDG 5 on gender equality,

關於貧窮的永續發展目標一、

關於性別平等的目標五、

SDG 10 on inequality,

關於不平等的目標十、

SDG 11 on inclusive cities

關於包容城市的目標十一，

and SDG 16 on peace and justice.

及關於和平與正義的目標十六。

So across those SDGs there are themes around rights and inclusiveness,

在上述那些永續發展目標中， 都有關於權利和包容的主題，

and those may seem less immediate or pressing

和飢餓及疾病相比，它們可能

than things like hunger and disease,

沒有那麼急切或迫切，

but rights and inclusion are critical to an agenda of no one left behind.

但如果要做到不丟下任何人， 權利和包容就很重要。

So how are we doing on those issues?

所以，我們該怎麼處理這些議題？

Let's start off with personal rights.

咱們從個人權利談起。

What I'm going to do first is show you our big countries in 2015.

我要先讓各位看看 2015 年的大國。

So here they are,

這裏，我把美國和日本又重新放進來，

and I've put the USA and Japan back in,

所以這些是世界上 最大的十三個國家。

so it's our 13 biggest countries in the world.

我們看到的分數差距很大。

And we see a wide range of scores.

The United States at the top with Japan hitting the goals;

最上頭的美國和日本達到目標；

China a long way behind.

中國落後很多。

So what's been our direction of travel

所以，在過去三年，在權利方面，

on the rights agenda over the last three years?

我們的進展方向是什麼？

Let's have a look.

咱們來看看。

Well, what we see is actually pretty ugly.

嗯，我們所看到的其實十分難看。

The majority of the countries are standing still or moving backwards,

大多數國家都沒有改變或開倒車，

and big countries like Brazil, India, China, Bangladesh

像是巴西、印度、中國、 孟加拉共和國這些大國

have all seen significant declines.

都有明顯的下降。

This is worrying.

這很讓人擔心。

Let's have a look now at inclusiveness.

現在來看看包容。

And inclusiveness is looking at things

包容要看的項目包括

like violence and discrimination against minorities,

針對少數族群的暴力和歧視、

gender equity, LGBT inclusion, etc...

性別平等、LGBT 包容性等等。

And as a result, we see that the scores for our big countries are generally lower.

因此，我們可以看見， 一般來說，大國的分數都比較低。

Every country, rich and poor alike, is struggling

每個國家，不論富有或貧窮，

在建立包容社會上，都非常掙扎。

with building an inclusive society.

But what's our direction of travel?

但我們的方向是什麼？

Are we building more inclusive countries?

我們在建立比較有包容性的國家嗎？

Let's have a look -- progress to 2018.

咱們來看看——到 2018 年的進展。

And again we see the world moving backwards:

同樣的，我們看見 世界正在開倒車：

most countries static,

大部分的國家在原地踏步， 許多國家在開倒車——

a lot of countries going backwards --

Bangladesh moving backwards --

孟加拉共和國在開倒車——

but also, two of the countries that were leading --

但，當中有兩個國家在領頭——

Brazil and the United States --

巴西和美國——

have gone backwards significantly

在過去三年間 開倒車的情況最顯著。

over the last three years.

Let's sum this up now for the world as a whole.

現在，咱們針對全世界來做個總結。

And what we see on personal rights for the whole world

就全世界的個人權利來說， 我們看到的是

is we're forecasting actually a decline in the score on personal rights

我們預測個人權利的分數會下降

to about 60,

到大約 60 分，

and then this decline in the score of inclusiveness to about 42.

接著，包容性的分數 則是下降到約 42 分。

Now, obviously these things can change quite quickly

很顯然，隨著權利，

隨著法律的改變、態度的改變，

with rights and with changes in law, changes in attitudes,

這些都有可能很快就跟著改變，

but we have to accept that on current trends,

但我們得要接受， 依照目前的趨勢，

this is probably the most worrying aspect of the SDGs.

這可能是永續發展目標的 各面向中最讓人擔心的一個了。

How I've depressed you ...

我讓大家多麼失望啊……（笑聲）

(Laughter)

I hope not because I think what we do see

我希望沒有， 因為我認為我們看見的是

is that progress is happening in a lot of places

在許多地方都看得到進展，

and there are opportunities for accelerating progress.

且有機會可以加速進展。

We are living in a world that is tantalizingly close

我們現在居住的世界，非常接近

to ensuring that no one need die of hunger or malaria or diarrhea.

可以做到確保沒有人會因為

飢餓、瘧疾，或腹瀉而死。

If we can focus our efforts, mobilize resources,

如果我們能把我們的 努力聚焦、動用資源、

galvanize the political will,

刺激政治意願，

that step change is possible.

那麼調整步伐是可能的。

But in focusing on those really basic, solvable SDGs,

但當我們聚焦在那些非常基本、 可解決的永續發展目標上時，

we mustn't forget the whole package.

我們也不能忘記整套目標。

The goals are an unwieldy set of indicators, goals and targets,

這些目標是非常大的一組

指標、目標，和目的，

but they also include the challenges our world faces.

但它們也包括了我們的 世界在面臨的挑戰。

The fact that the SDGs are focusing attention

永續發展目標的注意力是集中在

on the fact that we face a crisis in personal rights and inclusiveness

我們面臨個人權利 和包容性的危機上，

is a positive.

這是好事。

If we forget that,

如果我們忘了這點，

if we choose to double down on the SDGs that we can solve,

如果我們選擇在我們能解決的 永續發展目標上加倍下注，

if we go for SDG à la carte and pick the most easy SDGs,

如果我們把各項永續發展目標拆開來，

挑選最容易的目標，

then we will have missed the point of the SDGs,

那我們就搞錯了永續發展目標的重點，

we will miss the goals

也將會錯失目標，

and we will have failed on the promise of the SDGs.

無法完成對於永續發展目標的承諾。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Applause)

（掌聲）