Zeynep Tufekci: How the Internet has made social change easy to organize, hard to win

翻译人员: Yolanda Zhang 校对人员: 杏儀 歐陽

So recently, we heard a lot about how social media helps empower protest,

最近，我们时常听到 社交媒体如何支持了抗议活动，

and that's true,

那是真的。

but after more than a decade

但是经过十多年来

of studying and participating in multiple social movements,

我对多种社会活动的研究和参与，

I've come to realize

我认识到

that the way technology empowers social movements

科技辅助社会运动的方式

can also paradoxically help weaken them.

也可能反过来起到削弱的作用。

This is not inevitable, but overcoming it requires diving deep

这并非不可避免， 但是要克服这个问题需要

into what makes success possible over the long term.

深入了解长久以来到底什么是 取得成功的关键因素。

And the lessons apply in multiple domains.

这些经验适用于不同的领域。

Now, take Turkey's Gezi Park protests, July 2013,

举个例子：2013年7月 土耳其盖奇公园示威活动，

which I went back to study in the field.

我曾回到过现场研究这个事件。

Twitter was key to its organizing.

推特是组织这个抗议活动的关键。

It was everywhere in the park -- well, along with a lot of tear gas.

推特遍布整个公园，还有催泪弹。

It wasn't all high tech.

不完全是高科技。

But the people in Turkey had already gotten used to the power of Twitter

不过土耳其的人民早已 习惯了推特的力量，

because of an unfortunate incident about a year before

因为在一年前 一个很不幸的事件中，

when military jets had bombed and killed

军队飞机轰炸并杀死了

34 Kurdish smugglers near the border region,

靠近边界地区的34个库尔德走私者，

and Turkish media completely censored this news.

土耳其媒体完全封锁了这个消息。

Editors sat in their newsrooms

编辑们坐在新闻办公室里，

and waited for the government to tell them what to do.

等待着政府的指令。

One frustrated journalist could not take this anymore.

一位感到沮丧的记者再也无法忍受了。

He purchased his own plane ticket,

他自掏腰包买了飞机票，

and went to the village where this had occurred.

去了事发的村子。

And he was confronted by this scene:

他看到了这样一番景象：

a line of coffins coming down a hill, relatives wailing.

一排排的棺木从山坡上往下移动， 亲属们在悲泣。

He later he told me how overwhelmed he felt,

他后来告诉我，他感到非常悲痛，

and didn't know what to do,

不知如何是好，

so he took out his phone,

于是他拿出手机，

like any one of us might,

就像我们所有人一样，

and snapped that picture and tweeted it out.

拍了照片，用推特传出去。

And voila, that picture went viral

不出所料，这幅照片如同病毒一般

and broke the censorship and forced mass media to cover it.

打破封锁，逼得大众传播开始报道。

So when, a year later, Turkey's Gezi protests happened,

一年后，当土耳其的盖奇示威发生时，

it started as a protest about a park being razed,

开始是因为一个公园被夷为平地，

but became an anti-authoritarian protest.

但演变成了反独裁示威。

It wasn't surprising that media also censored it,

不出所料，媒体封锁了这个消息，

but it got a little ridiculous at times.

但有时实在太离谱。

When things were so intense,

当事件演变到非常激烈的程度时，

when CNN International was broadcasting live from Istanbul,

CNN国际频道在伊斯坦堡 进行了现场直播，

CNN Turkey instead was broadcasting a documentary on penguins.

CNN土耳其频道同时播放的却是 企鹅的纪录片。

Now, I love penguin documentaries, but that wasn't the news of the day.

我很喜欢企鹅记录片， 但是那不该是那天的头条新闻。

An angry viewer put his two screens together and snapped that picture,

一位愤怒的观众将两个电视荧幕 放在一起，照了一张相片。

and that one too went viral,

那张相片也开始疯狂传播，

and since then, people call Turkish media the penguin media. (Laughter)

从此，大家就称土耳其媒体为企鹅媒体。 （笑声）

But this time, people knew what to do.

但是这次，大家知道怎么做了。

They just took out their phones and looked for actual news.

他们带上手机去寻找真正的新闻。

Better, they knew to go to the park and take pictures and participate

或者他们干脆去公园照相、参与示威，

and share it more on social media.

在社会媒体上分享信息。

Digital connectivity was used for everything from food to donations.

数字化通讯系统已经应用到了各个领域， 譬如食物、捐款。

Everything was organized partially with the help of these new technologies.

所有事件组织都借助了新技术。

And using Internet to mobilize and publicize protests

用互联网来动员、宣传抗议活动

actually goes back a long way.

实际上要追溯到很久以前。

Remember the Zapatistas,

大家记得萨帕塔事件吗？

the peasant uprising in the southern Chiapas region of Mexico

那是在墨西哥南部的 恰阿巴斯区的农民起义。

led by the masked, pipe-smoking, charismatic Subcomandante Marcos?

由一个带着面具，抽着烟斗， 颇具魅力的名为马克斯的副指挥官所领导。

That was probably the first movement

那应该是第一个

that got global attention thanks to the Internet.

由于互联网而得到全球关注的事件。

Or consider Seattle '99,

或想想99年的西雅图事件，

when a multinational grassroots effort brought global attention

跨国基层民众协力让全球关注到了

to what was then an obscure organization, the World Trade Organization,

那时仍默默无名的世界贸易组织。

by also utilizing these digital technologies to help them organize.

他们也是运用了这种数字科技 来协助组织这个活动。

And more recently, movement after movement

最近，一个接一个的事件

has shaken country after country:

震撼了一个又一个国家：

the Arab uprisings from Bahrain to Tunisia to Egypt and more;

巴林到突尼斯、埃及的阿拉伯起义等；

indignados in Spain, Italy, Greece; the Gezi Park protests;

西班牙、意大利、希腊等国的抗议者； 盖奇公园的示威人群；

Taiwan; Euromaidan in Ukraine; Hong Kong.

台湾；乌克兰的亲欧盟示威运动； 还有香港。

And think of more recent initiatives, like the #BringBackOurGirls hashtags.

还有最近的，例如#把我们的女孩带回来 的口号 （14年4月尼日利亚寄宿学校若干女生被绑架）

Nowadays, a network of tweets can unleash a global awareness campaign.

如今，网络短消息网络 能够发动全球觉醒活动。

A Facebook page can become the hub of a massive mobilization.

脸书网页可以成为 一个大规模动员的枢纽。

Amazing.

多么惊人啊！

But think of the moments I just mentioned.

但想想我刚提到的那些例子。

The achievements they were able to have, their outcomes,

他们所能取得的成就和效果，

are not really proportional to the size and energy they inspired.

与他们所激发的民众数目和能量 并不成比例。

The hopes they rightfully raised are not really matched

他们合法激起的希望却并没有

by what they were able to have as a result in the end.

得到他们想要的结果。

And this raises a question:

这就带出了一个问题：

As digital technology makes things easier for movements,

当数字科技让一些活动变得更容易发起，

why haven't successful outcomes become more likely as well?

为什么却不容易得到成功的结果？

In embracing digital platforms for activism and politics,

将数字平台用在 行动主义和政治活动的同时，

are we overlooking some of the benefits of doing things the hard way?

我们是不是忽略了传统活动中 那些有利的方面？

Now, I believe so.

我是这样认为的。

I believe that the rule of thumb is:

我相信常规的方法是：

Easier to mobilize does not always mean easier to achieve gains.

很容易发动并不总是意味着 很容易实现目标。

Now, to be clear,

我再解释一下，

technology does empower in multiple ways.

科技的确推动了某些领域的发展。

It's very powerful.

科技力量不容小视。

In Turkey, I watched four young college students

在土耳其，我见到4个年轻的大学生

organize a countrywide citizen journalism network called 140Journos

组织了一个全国市民新闻网络， 叫做140Journos，

that became the central hub for uncensored news in the country.

它成为了全国非监管新闻的中心平台。

In Egypt, I saw another four young people use digital connectivity

在埃及，我也见到了4个年轻人在2011年

to organize the supplies and logistics for 10 field hospitals,

解放广场附近大范围冲突事件中， 用数字化通讯系统

very large operations,

为10所战地医院

during massive clashes near Tahrir Square in 2011.

组织了志愿和后勤服务， 那是非常庞大的系统。

And I asked the founder of this effort, called Tahrir Supplies,

我问这个活动的发起者 ——”解放支援“组织，

how long it took him to go from when he had the idea to when he got started.

从产生想法到付诸行动 究竟花了多长时间。

"Five minutes," he said. Five minutes.

”5分钟，“他说。只有5分钟。

And he had no training or background in logistics.

而他对后勤事务一无所知。

Or think of the Occupy movement which rocked the world in 2011.

再想想2011年震撼全世界的 占领华尔街运动。

It started with a single email

仅仅从《广告克星》杂志的 一封电子邮件开始，

from a magazine, Adbusters, to 90,000 subscribers in its list.

转发到了9万订阅者的手中。

About two months after that first email,

邮件发出去的2个月之后，

there were in the United States 600 ongoing occupations and protests.

全美国就发起了 600起占领和抗议事件。

Less than one month after the first physical occupation in Zuccotti Park,

在祖科蒂公园占领事件之后还不到1个月，

a global protest was held in about 82 countries, 950 cities.

82个国家、950个城市 开展了全球性抗议活动。

It was one of the largest global protests ever organized.

这是有史以来最大一次 全球性示威活动。

Now, compare that to what the Civil Rights Movement had to do in 1955 Alabama

与1955年阿拉巴马州 发生的民权运动相比，

to protest the racially segregated bus system, which they wanted to boycott.

即种族隔离公交系统， 呼吁大众拒绝坐公交。

They'd been preparing for many years

这个运动酝酿了很多年，

and decided it was time to swing into action

在罗莎·帕克斯被捕之后

after Rosa Parks was arrested.

才被认为是时候该付诸行动。

But how do you get the word out --

但是要怎么传播信息呢——

tomorrow we're going to start the boycott --

明天就要开始进行抵制了——

when you don't have Facebook, texting, Twitter, none of that?

那时候并没有脸书、短信、 推特之类的媒介？

So they had to mimeograph 52,000 leaflets

于是他们需要影印5万2千份传单，

by sneaking into a university duplicating room

这一切都要夜深人静之后

偷偷潜入一所大学的复印室暗中进行。

and working all night, secretly.

They then used the 68 African-American organizations

然后他们借助全城联系密切的

that criss-crossed the city to distribute those leaflets by hand.

68个非洲裔美国人组织 来亲手发放这些传单。

And the logistical tasks were daunting, because these were poor people.

后勤工作非常难组织， 因为这些都是穷人。

They had to get to work, boycott or no,

毕竟他们都去上班赚钱， 抵制还是不抵制的确是个难题，

so a massive carpool was organized,

所以大量的拼车活动组织起来了，

again by meeting.

还是通过集会。

No texting, no Twitter, no Facebook.

没有短信，没有推特，没有脸书。

They had to meet almost all the time to keep this carpool going.

他们总是要碰面 保证拼车顺利进行。

Today, it would be so much easier.

而如今，这一切都变得很简单了。

We could create a database, available rides and what rides you need,

我们可以建立一个数据库， 哪些人有空车，哪些人需要搭车，

have the database coordinate, and use texting.

用数据库进行协调，用短信沟通。

We wouldn't have to meet all that much.

我们不再需要那样集会。

But again, consider this:

不过再想想：

the Civil Rights Movement in the United States

美国的民权运动

navigated a minefield of political dangers,

进入了具有政治危险性的雷区，

faced repression and overcame, won major policy concessions,

面临镇压，冲破镇压， 赢得了重大政策让步，

navigated and innovated through risks.

组织和创新的每一步都充满了危险。

In contrast, three years after Occupy sparked

对比而言，占领运动掀起了

that global conversation about inequality,

不平等的全球话题3年之后，

the policies that fueled it are still in place.

支持这种不平等的政策 丝毫没有改变。

Europe was also rocked by anti-austerity protests,

欧洲也发生了许多反紧缩抗议活动，

but the continent didn't shift its direction.

不过并没有取得任何成效。

In embracing these technologies,

在充分利用这些技术的同时，

are we overlooking some of the benefits of slow and sustained?

我们是不是忽略了缓慢长期的活动中 有利的一面呢？

To understand this,

为了搞清楚这一点，

I went back to Turkey about a year after the Gezi protests

盖奇抗议活动一年后 我回到了土耳其，

and I interviewed a range of people,

采访了一些人，

from activists to politicians,

包括活动家、政治家、

from both the ruling party and the opposition party and movements.

统治集团、反对集团、各种运动。

I found that the Gezi protesters were despairing.

我发现盖奇活动的抗议者感到很绝望。

They were frustrated,

他们很沮丧，

and they had achieved much less than what they had hoped for.

他们所达到的效果离期望相差太远。

This echoed what I'd been hearing around the world

这也呼应了我在全球接触的

from many other protesters that I'm in touch with.

其他抗议者的声音。

And I've come to realize that part of the problem

我开始认识到一部分问题在于

is that today's protests have become a bit like climbing Mt. Everest

当今的抗议活动有点像 借助60个西藏夏尔巴人

with the help of 60 Sherpas,

来攀登珠穆朗玛峰，

and the Internet is our Sherpa.

而网络就是我们的夏尔巴人。

What we're doing is taking the fast routes

我们在做的是 找到最快的路径，

and not replacing the benefits of the slower work.

却没有利用传统方式的好处。

Because, you see,

因为你们想想看，

the kind of work that went into organizing

以前组织的所有后勤工作

all those daunting, tedious logistical tasks

都很繁琐、单调，

did not just take care of those tasks,

并不只是为了完成工作，

they also created the kind of organization that could think together collectively

这些工作创造了一种组织， 能够让大家万众一心，

and make hard decisions together,

一起做出艰难的决定，

create consensus and innovate, and maybe even more crucially,

达成一致、有所创新， 甚至更重要的是，

keep going together through differences.

在求同存异中前行。

So when you see this March on Washington in 1963,

当你们看到1963年3月 在华盛顿的这些人群时，

when you look at that picture,

看着这张照片，

where this is the march where Martin Luther King gave his famous

马丁路德金在人群中 进行了他的著名演讲，

"I have a dream" speech, 1963,

1963年的“我有一个梦想”，

you don't just see a march and you don't just hear a powerful speech,

看到的不只是浩荡的游行人群， 听到的不只是伟大的一篇演讲，

you also see the painstaking, long-term work that can put on that march.

大家也看到了聚集人群所需的 长期艰辛工作。

And if you're in power,

如果你掌握着实权，

you realize you have to take the capacity signaled by that march,

你会认识到，你必须考虑 游行所显示的巨大能量，

not just the march, but the capacity signaled by that march, seriously.

并不只是游行， 而是游行所传递的实实在在的能量。

In contrast, when you look at Occupy's global marches

对比来看，占领华尔街的全球抗议活动

that were organized in two weeks,

在2周内就组织好了

you see a lot of discontent,

可以看到很多不满的情绪，

but you don't necessarily see teeth that can bite over the long term.

但并不一定能看到长远效果。

And crucially, the Civil Rights Movement innovated tactically

关键问题在于， 民权运动在战术上进行了创新，

from boycotts to lunch counter sit-ins to pickets to marches to freedom rides.

从抵制、到餐厅静坐抗议、罢工纠察员、 游行、再到自由乘坐公交。

Today's movements scale up very quickly without the organizational base

如今的运动缺乏有效的组织基础， 规模扩张得太快，

that can see them through the challenges.

无法预见到可能面临的挑战。

They feel a little like startups that got very big

有点类似于小型创业公司发展过快，

without knowing what to do next,

却还不知道下一步要如何发展，

and they rarely manage to shift tactically

而且也很少转换战略，

because they don't have the depth of capacity

因为他们没有深厚的实力

to weather such transitions.

来平和度过这段过渡期。

Now, I want to be clear: The magic is not in the mimeograph.

我想表明： 成功的秘诀不在于蜡纸油印。

It's in that capacity to work together, think together collectively,

而是同心协力、同舟共济的能力，

which can only be built over time with a lot of work.

这种能力只有通过长期的 准备工作才能建立起来。

To understand all this,

为了理解这个问题，

I interviewed a top official from the ruling party in Turkey,

我采访了土耳其执政党的高级官员，

and I ask him, "How do you do it?"

我问他， “你们是怎么赢得选举的？”

They too use digital technology extensively, so that's not it.

他们也大面积使用了数字科技， 所以这不是根本原因。

So what's the secret?

那么秘密是什么？

Well, he told me.

他告诉我，

He said the key is he never took sugar with his tea.

他说秘诀就是他喝茶从来不放糖。

I said, what has that got to do with anything?

我说，这有什么关系吗？

Well, he said, his party starts getting ready for the next election

他说，他的选举团队 在他选举获胜的第二天

the day after the last one,

就开始准备下一场选举了，

and he spends all day every day meeting with voters in their homes,

他每天都要去那些支持者家里走访，

in their wedding parties, circumcision ceremonies,

参加他们的婚礼、割礼仪式，

and then he meets with his colleagues to compare notes.

然后他与同事碰面交流会谈笔录。

With that many meetings every day, with tea offered at every one of them,

每天他都要与群众会面， 每一家都会请他喝茶，

which he could not refuse, because that would be rude,

他无法拒绝，因为那样很不礼貌，

he could not take even one cube of sugar per cup of tea,

每一杯茶里连一块糖都不能放，

because that would be many kilos of sugar, he can't even calculate how many kilos,

因为加起来会有好几公斤糖， 他根本数不过来，

and at that point I realized why he was speaking so fast.

那时我就明白 为什么他说话这么快。

We had met in the afternoon, and he was already way over-caffeinated.

我们是在下午会面的， 那时他已经摄入了太多咖啡因。

But his party won two major elections

但是，在盖奇游行的那一年

他的团队轻松地 在两场重要选举中获胜。

within a year of the Gezi protests with comfortable margins.

To be sure, governments have different resources to bring to the table.

无可否认，政府部门 有很多不同的资源可以利用。

It's not the same game, but the differences are instructive.

条件不同， 但是其中的差异非常具有启发性。

And like all such stories, this is not a story just of technology.

就像所有类似事件， 这不是技术获胜。

It's what technology allows us to do converging with what we want to do.

关键在于技术能够辅助我们 去做我们想做的事。

Today's social movements want to operate informally.

当今的社会运动总想要以 非正式的形式操作。

They do not want institutional leadership.

他们不想要任何机构的领导。

They want to stay out of politics because they fear corruption and cooptation.

他们不想跟政治扯上关系， 对腐败和招降举措感到恐惧。

They have a point.

他们有自己的办法。

Modern representative democracies are being strangled in many countries

现代具有代表性的民主在很多国家

by powerful interests.

已经被强大的利益扼杀。

But operating this way makes it hard for them

但是这种方式让他们很难实现持久战，

to sustain over the long term and exert leverage over the system,

并且在社会上产生足够的影响，

which leads to frustrated protesters dropping out,

这就会导致沮丧的抗议者退出，

and even more corrupt politics.

政治体系变得更腐败。

And politics and democracy without an effective challenge hobbles,

不面临有效的挑战 政治和民主就无法进步，

because the causes that have inspired the modern recent movements are crucial.

因为激励现代运动的原因非常关键。

Climate change is barreling towards us.

气候变化的问题日益严峻。

Inequality is stifling human growth and potential and economies.

不平等问题压制了人类的进步， 发展潜力和经济增长。

Authoritarianism is choking many countries.

独裁主义让很多国家饱受摧残。

We need movements to be more effective.

我们需要更有效的社会运动。

Now, some people have argued that the problem is

现在，一些人认为问题在于

today's movements are not formed of people who take as many risks as before,

当今那些举办运动的人 所面临的危险远不如以前，

and that is not true.

但这并不是事实。

From Gezi to Tahrir to elsewhere,

在盖奇、这埃及解放广场运动，

I've seen people put their lives and livelihoods on the line.

我见到人们舍家弃业 投入到这些运动中去。

It's also not true, as Malcolm Gladwell claimed,

事实也不像马尔科姆·格拉德威尔说的那样 （《纽约客》杂志撰稿人及畅销作家），

that today's protesters form weaker virtual ties.

当今抗议者的凝聚力不足。

No, they come to these protests, just like before,

这是不对的，这些人参加抗议活动，

with their friends, existing networks,

跟朋友一起参与，与从前没什么两样，

and sometimes they do make new friends for life.

有的时候甚至还能 遇到志同道合的挚交。

I still see the friends that I made

现在我还是会跟10多年前

in those Zapatista-convened global protests more than a decade ago,

在萨帕塔全球抗议活动上 认识的朋友见面聊天，

and the bonds between strangers are not worthless.

陌生人之间的联系并非毫无价值。

When I got tear-gassed in Gezi,

当我在盖奇遭受到催泪瓦斯的攻击，

people I didn't know helped me and one another instead of running away.

陌生人帮助我和其他人一起撤离， 而不是只顾自己逃命。

In Tahrir, I saw people, protesters,

在埃及解放广场运动中， 我见到了很多人，抗议者，

working really hard to keep each other safe and protected.

拼命保护周围人的安全。

And digital awareness-raising is great,

数字化宣传是个很不错的途径，

because changing minds is the bedrock of changing politics.

因为改变思想是改变政治体制的基石。

But movements today have to move beyond participation at great scale very fast

但是当今的运动需要 超越大范围快速的参与，

and figure out how to think together collectively,

还要想办法让大家万众一心，

develop strong policy proposals, create consensus,

发展强有力的政治意愿， 保持高度一致，

figure out the political steps and relate them to leverage,

制定政治决策的发展步骤， 并想办法付诸实施，

because all these good intentions and bravery and sacrifice by itself

毕竟仅有这些好的意愿、 勇气和牺牲精神

are not going to be enough.

是远远不够的。

And there are many efforts.

人们的确进行了很多努力。

In New Zealand, a group of young people are developing a platform called Loomio

在新西兰，一群年轻人正在建立 一个叫做Loomio的平台，

for participatory decision making at scale.

用来进行大规模参与决策的制定。

In Turkey, 140Journos are holding hack-a-thons

在土耳其，140Journos正在举办“黑客松”

so that they support communities as well as citizen journalism.

这样他们就可以同时支持社区活动 和大众新闻报导。

In Argentina, an open-source platform called DemocracyOS

在阿根廷， 一个叫做DemocracyOS的开源平台

is bringing participation to parliaments and political parties.

让议会和政治党派也能够参与进来。

These are all great, and we need more,

这些都非常好， 我们还需要更多这样的组织，

but the answer won't just be better online decision-making,

不过办法并不只在于更好的网络决策，

because to update democracy, we are going to need to innovate at every level,

因为要改进民主制度， 我们需要在每个阶段都有所革新，

from the organizational to the political to the social.

从组织层面到政治层面，再到社会层面。

Because to succeed over the long term,

因为要获得长久的胜利，

sometimes you do need tea without sugar

有时候你还是需要喝不放糖的茶，

along with your Twitter.

尽管你有推特。

Thank you.

谢谢大家。

(Applause)

（掌声）