The unforeseen consequences of a fast-paced world | Kathryn Bouskill

翻译人员: Lipeng Chen 校对人员: Jiasi Hao

Do you ever wonder why we're surrounded with things that help us do everything

你们有没有想过，为什么 我们身边的东西总是让我们的行动

faster and faster and faster?

变得越来越快，越快越快？

Communicate faster,

更快的沟通，

but also work faster, bank faster,

还有更快的工作，更快的交易，

travel faster, find a date faster,

更快的旅行，更快的约会，

cook faster, clean faster and do all of it all at the same time?

更快的做饭，更快的清洁， 甚至同时做很多事情？

How do you feel about cramming even more into every waking hour?

在每一个清醒的小时里面塞进 更多的东西，你们是什么感觉？

Well, to my generation of Americans,

对于我这一代美国人来说，

speed feels like a birthright.

速度就像是与生俱来的权利。

Sometimes I think our minimum speed is Mach 3.

有时，我觉得我们的最低速度就是 3 马赫（3 倍音速，形容速度很快）。

Anything less, and we fear losing our competitive edge.

如果慢一点，我们就会担心 失去我们的竞争优势。

But even my generation is starting to question

但是，甚至我这一代也开始反问

whether we're the masters of speed

到底我们是速度的主人，

or if speed is mastering us.

还是速度在主宰着我们。

I'm an anthropologist at the Rand Corporation,

我是兰德公司的一名人类学家，

and while many anthropologists study ancient cultures,

尽管许多人类学家研究古代文化，

I focus on modern day cultures and how we're adapting

而我研究的是当代文化， 以及我们如何适应

to all of this change happening in the world.

现在世界上正在发生的诸多变化。

Recently, I teamed up with an engineer, Seifu Chonde, to study speed.

最近，我和工程师赛孚 · 康德 在一起研究速度。

我们对人类如何适应 这个加速的时代

We were interested both in how people are adapting to this age of acceleration

以及它的安全性 和政策建议非常感兴趣。

and its security and policy implications.

What could our world look like in 25 years

如果现在改变的步伐持续加速，

那么我们的世界在 25 年后 会变成什么样子？

if the current pace of change keeps accelerating?

What would it mean for transportation,

对于交通，或是学习、

or learning, communication,

通讯、制造、武器、

manufacturing, weaponry

甚至是自然选择来说，

or even natural selection?

这意味着什么？

Will a faster future make us more secure and productive?

一个更快的未来会让我们 更安全、更有生产力吗？

Or will it make us more vulnerable?

还是会让我们更脆弱？

In our research, people accepted acceleration as inevitable,

在我们的研究中，人们接受加速 并将其视为不可避免的，

both the thrills and the lack of control.

既兴奋，但又有失控之感。

They fear that if they were to slow down,

他们害怕如果他们慢下来了，

就会面临被淘汰的风险。

they might run the risk of becoming obsolete.

They say they'd rather burn out than rust out.

他们说他们宁愿累死 也不愿意被淘汰。

Yet at the same time,

然而，在同时，

they worry that speed could erode their cultural traditions

他们担心速度会侵蚀 他们的文化传统

and their sense of home.

以及家庭观念。

But even people who are winning at the speed game

但甚至是那些赢得了 速度赛跑的人们

admit to feeling a little uneasy.

也承认他们感到一丝不安。

They see acceleration as widening the gap between the haves,

他们认为这种加速扩大了

the jet-setters who are buzzing around,

那些坐私人飞机四处环游的富人

and the have-nots,

和那些被覆盖在

who are left in the digital dust.

电子尘埃中的穷人之间的差距。

Yes, we have good reason to forecast that the future will be faster,

是的，我们有很好的理由 预测将来会变得更快，

but what I've come to realize

但是我逐渐意识到

is that speed is paradoxical,

速度这个概念是充满矛盾的，

and like all good paradoxes,

就像所有好的矛盾体一样，

it teaches us about the human experience,

它教会我们人类自身的经历

as absurd and complex as it is.

既荒谬又复杂。

The first paradox is that we love speed,

第一个矛盾是我们喜欢速度，

and we're thrilled by its intensity.

它的强度让我们兴奋。

But our prehistoric brains aren't really built for it,

但是我们史前形成的大脑 并不是为此而生的，

所以我们发明出过山车、 赛车和超音速飞机，

so we invent roller coasters and race cars and supersonic planes,

but we get whiplash, carsick,

但我们又面临着颈椎受损、晕车

jet-lagged.

或是时差问题。

We didn't evolve to multitask.

我们进化不是为了多线程工作。

Rather, we evolved to do one thing with incredible focus,

相反，我们进化是为了 用超常的专注去做一件事情，

就像是狩猎——靠的不一定是速度，

like hunt -- not necessarily with great speed

but with endurance for great distance.

而是长途跋涉的耐力。

But now there's a widening gap between our biology and our lifestyles,

但如今，我们的生理和生活方式 之间出现了一条鸿沟，

a mismatch between what our bodies are built for and what we're making them do.

我们身体的设计初衷与 我们让身体所做的事情出现了错配。

It's a phenomenon my mentors have called "Stone Agers in the fast lane."

我的导师将这种现象称作 “快车道上的石器时代人。”

(Laughter)

（笑声）

第二个关于速度的矛盾在于 速度是用客观标准来衡量的。对吧？

A second paradox of speed is that it can be measured objectively. Right?

Miles per hour, gigabytes per second.

每小时几英里，每秒多少千兆字节。

But how speed feels,

但是对于速度的感知，

and whether we like it,

以及我们是否喜欢速度，

is highly subjective.

都是高度主观的。

So we can document

我们的文件记录到：

that the pace at which we are adopting new technologies is increasing.

我们采用新技术的速度正在加快。

For example, it took 85 years from the introduction of the telephone

例如，从电话问世

到大多数美国家庭拥有电话 花了 85 年的时间。

to when the majority of Americans had phones at home.

In contrast, it only took 13 years for most of us to have smartphones.

相反，我们中大部分拥有智能手机 只花了 13 年的时间。

And how people act and react to speed

人们如何应对这种速度

varies by culture and among different people within the same culture.

对于不同文化，以及对于同一文化中 的不同人来说都存在差异。

Interactions that could be seen as pleasantly brisk and convenient

在某些文化中 被视为轻松活跃的互动

in some cultures

可能在某些文化看来

could be seen as horribly rude in others.

是相当粗鲁的。

I mean, you wouldn't go asking for a to-go cup at a Japanese tea ceremony

我想说的是，你不会在 日本茶道仪式上要一杯外带的茶，

so you could jet off to your next tourist stop.

以便赶快到达下一个旅游景点吧。

Would you?

你会这么做吗？

A third paradox is that speed begets speed.

第三个矛盾是速度导致速度。

The faster I respond, the more responses I get,

我回复得越快， 我得到的回复就越多，

the faster I have to respond again.

于是我不得不回复得更快。

Having more communication

在任何一个时刻，

and information at our fingertips

我们手头正在进行的更多交流

at any given moment

和获得的更多信息

本应是让决策更加容易、更加理性。

was supposed to make decision-making easier and more rational.

But that doesn't really seem to be happening.

但是看起来事实并非如此。

Here's just one more paradox:

还有另一个矛盾：

If all of these faster technologies were supposed to free us from drudgery,

如果所有这些更快的科技 本应让我们免于苦差，

为什么我们总是觉得时间如此紧迫？

why do we all feel so pressed for time?

Why are we crashing our cars in record numbers,

为什么我们不断刷新车祸数字，

because we think we have to answer that text right away?

只因我们觉得 我们必须马上回复消息？

Shouldn't life in the fast lane feel a little more fun

在快车道的生活不是应该 更多一些乐趣，

and a little less anxious?

更少一些焦虑吗？

German speakers even have a word for this:

德语中甚至有一个词 来形容这种现象：

"Eilkrankheit."

“Eilkrankheit”。

In English, that's "hurry sickness."

翻译过来，就是“速度不适感”。

当我们不得不快速做出决定时，

When we have to make fast decisions,

autopilot brain kicks in,

自控式的大脑开始运作，

and we rely on our learned behaviors,

我们依赖于我们习得的行为、

our reflexes, our cognitive biases,

反射，以及认知偏差，

来帮助我们快速感知并反应。

to help us perceive and respond quickly.

Sometimes that saves our lives, right?

有时这可以救命，对吧？

Fight or flight.

要么战斗，要么逃跑。

But sometimes, it leads us astray in the long run.

但有时，这会在长期 让我们陷入迷途。

Oftentimes, when our society has major failures,

很多时候，我们的社会 出现的严重问题

they're not technological failures.

并不是技术性失误，

They're failures that happen when we made decisions too quickly

而是当我们依赖反射 快速做出决定时

on autopilot.

而造成的错误。

We didn't do the creative or critical thinking required

我们没有进行必要的 创造性或批判性思考，

连接信息节点，

to connect the dots

or weed out false information

滤除错误信息，

or make sense of complexity.

厘清复杂状况。

That kind of thinking can't be done fast.

这种思考模式是不能快速完成的。

That's slow thinking.

这是慢思考。

Two psychologists, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky,

两位心理学家，丹尼尔 · 卡尼曼 和阿莫斯 · 特沃斯基

started pointing this out back in 1974,

在 1974 年就指出了这一点，

and we're still struggling to do something with their insights.

而我们仍在他们的洞见下挣扎。

All of modern history can be thought of as one spurt of acceleration after another.

整段当代历史都可以被视为 一场接一场的加速。

It's as if we think if we just speed up enough,

就好像是我们觉得 只要我们的速度够快，

我们的问题就可以迎刃而解。

we can outrun our problems.

But we never do.

但事实从来不是这样的。

We know this in our own lives,

我们从自己的生活中 领悟到这一点，

and policymakers know it, too.

政策制定者也知道这一点。

So now we're turning to artificial intelligence

如今，我们正寄希望于人工智能

to help us make faster and smarter decisions

帮助我们做出更快、更聪明的决策，

to process this ever-expanding universe of data.

来处理这体量不断扩大的数据。

But machines crunching data are no substitute

但是依靠机器分析数据

for critical and sustained thinking

并非是人类进行批判性 和可持续思考

的替代品，

by humans,

whose Stone Age brains need a little time to let their impulses subside,

我们的石器时代大脑 需要一些时间来平息冲动，

to slow the mind

来放慢思考，

来让思想发展。

and let the thoughts flow.

如果你开始考虑—— 我们就应该立即停下脚步，

If you're starting to think that we should just hit the brakes,

that won't always be the right solution.

这并不总是正确的解决方案。

We all know that a train that's going too fast around a bend can derail,

我们都知道在弯道处 开得太快的火车会脱轨，

but Seifu, the engineer,

但是工程师赛孚

taught me that a train that's going too slowly around a bend can also derail.

告诉我在弯道 开得太慢的火车也会脱轨。

So managing this spurt of acceleration starts with the understanding

所以要掌控这种加速度， 需要从一个正确的认识开始——

that we have more control over speed than we think we do,

我们对速度的控制能力超乎想象，

individually and as a society.

不论是个体还是整个社会。

Sometimes, we'll need to engineer ourselves to go faster.

有时，我们需要工程师更快一点。

We'll want to solve gridlock,

我们想要解决交通堵塞问题，

speed up disaster relief for hurricane victims

加快飓风灾民的灾后安置，

or use 3-D printing to produce what we need on the spot,

或仅仅在我们需要某个东西的时候

just when we need it.

利用 3D 打印现场生产。

Sometimes, though, we'll want to make our surroundings feel slower

但有时，我们却想让周遭慢下来，

to engineer the crash out of the speedy experience.

处理速度带来的杂乱无章。

And it's OK not to be stimulated all the time.

我们完全可以不用时时刻刻都紧绷着。

It's good for adults

这对成人还有儿童来说

and for kids.

都很好。

Maybe it's boring, but it gives us time to reflect.

也许这很无聊， 但是这给了我们时间去反思。

Slow time is not wasted time.

放慢速度不是浪费时间。

And we need to reconsider what it means to save time.

我们也需要重新思考 节约时间究竟意味着什么。

Culture and rituals around the world build in slowness,

全世界的文化和习俗 都在慢速中成型，

because slowness helps us reinforce our shared values and connect.

因为放慢脚步能帮助我们 加强我们的共同价值和联结，

And connection is a critical part of being human.

而且联结是人之所以为人 的一个关键部分。

We need to master speed,

我们需要成为速度的主人，

这意味着仔细思考 使用任何科技的权衡。

and that means thinking carefully about the trade-offs of any given technology.

Will it help you reclaim time that you can use to express your humanity?

这种科技会帮助你夺回 可用来表达人性的时间吗？

会给你造成速度不适感吗？ 会给他人带去速度不适感吗？

Will it give you hurry sickness? Will it give other people hurry sickness?

If you're lucky enough to decide the pace that you want to travel through life,

如果你足够幸运， 就可以决定你生活的步调，

it's a privilege.

这是一种特权。

Use it.

要充分利用好它。

You might decide that you need both to speed up

你也许会决定

and to create slow time:

既要加速，

time to reflect,

也要减速：

to percolate

放慢脚步来反思，

at your own pace;

来沉淀，

time to listen,

来倾听，

to empathize,

来共情，

to rest your mind,

放空大脑，

to linger at the dinner table.

逗留于餐桌边。

So as we zoom into the future,

所以当我们展望未来时，

let's consider setting the technologies of speed,

让我们试着将速度背后的技术、

速度的目的，

the purpose of speed

以及我们对速度的期望

and our expectations of speed

to a more human pace.

变得更加符合人的步伐吧！

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）