Why specializing early doesn't always mean career success | David Epstein

Transcriber: Leslie Gauthier Reviewer: Camille Martínez

翻译人员: Xinyi YU 校对人员: Lark Yu

So, I'd like to talk about the development of human potential,

我想谈一谈人的潜能发展，

and I'd like to start with maybe the most impactful modern story of development.

就从可能是最有影响力的 现代发展故事开始说起吧 。

Many of you here have probably heard of the 10,000 hours rule.

大家都应该听说过“一万小时定律”，

Maybe you even model your own life after it.

或许你的生活也遵循此道。

Basically, it's the idea that to become great in anything,

其基本观点就是， 想在任何方面变得优秀，

it takes 10,000 hours of focused practice,

需要花费上万小时刻意练习，

so you'd better get started as early as possible.

因此行动越早越好。

The poster child for this story is Tiger Woods.

该理论的典型代表 就是老虎·伍兹。

His father famously gave him a putter when he was seven months old.

尽人皆知，他 7 个月大时， 父亲给了他一根推杆。

At 10 months, he started imitating his father's swing.

10 个月时， 他开始模仿父亲挥杆。

At two, you can go on YouTube and see him on national television.

他 2 岁时的视频已经可以 在油管（YouTube）和全国电视上找到。

Fast-forward to the age of 21,

快进到 21 岁，

he's the greatest golfer in the world.

他已是全世界 最优秀的高尔夫球手了，

典型的一万小时故事。

Quintessential 10,000 hours story.

Another that features in a number of bestselling books

另一个被写进 众多畅销书中的典范，

就是波尔加三姐妹的故事。

is that of the three Polgar sisters,

whose father decided to teach them chess in a very technical manner

他们的父亲决定在她们很小的时候， 就用职业训练的方式

from a very early age.

教她们下国际象棋。

And, really, he wanted to show

事实上，他是想证明

that with a head start in focused practice,

抢先起跑、刻意练习，

any child could become a genius in anything.

所有孩子都能成为 任何领域的天才。

And in fact,

而实际上，

two of his daughters went on to become Grandmaster chess players.

他的两个女儿确实都成为了 国际象棋大师。

So when I became the science writer at "Sports Illustrated" magazine,

所以当我成为 《体育画报》的科普作家时，

I got curious.

我不禁感到好奇，

If this 10,000 hours rule is correct,

如果这个一万小时定律没错，

then we should see that elite athletes get a head start

那我们就应该看到那些优秀运动员 通过所谓的“刻意练习”，

in so-called "deliberate practice."

获得领先位置。

This is coached, error-correction-focused practice,

是有教练指导，聚焦于纠错的练习，

not just playing around.

并不只是随便玩玩。

And in fact, when scientists study elite athletes,

事实上，科学家在研究运动员时，

they see that they spend more time in deliberate practice --

发现这些运动员 把更多时间花在了刻意练习上，

这并不令人意外。

not a big surprise.

When they actually track athletes over the course of their development,

当他们追踪运动员的 职业发展历程时，

the pattern looks like this:

他们的模式是这样的：

未来的骄子们 在他们最终的运动项目早期

the future elites actually spend less time early on

in deliberate practice in their eventual sport.

花在有意识的 练习上的时间反而更少。

They tend to have what scientists call a "sampling period,"

他们通常都经历了 一个科学家所谓的“试水期”。

where they try a variety of physical activities,

在此期间， 他们会尝试各种体育运动，

they gain broad, general skills,

从中获取广泛、通用的技能，

they learn about their interests and abilities

并从中发现自己的兴趣和能力，

and delay specializing until later than peers who plateau at lower levels.

与在较低水平就遭遇瓶颈同龄人相比， 他们把术业专攻的时间推迟得更晚。

And so when I saw that, I said,

当我看到这个情况时说：

"Gosh, that doesn't really comport with the 10,000 hours rule, does it?"

“天啊！这可不符合 一万小时定律啊！”

So I started to wonder about other domains

因此我开始对其他领域，

that we associate with obligatory, early specialization,

那些强制性提早进入 专业化训练的领域感到好奇，

like music.

诸如音乐，

Turns out the pattern's often similar.

结果发现它们的模式大多相似。

This is research from a world-class music academy,

这项研究来自于 一所顶级的音乐学院，

and what I want to draw your attention to is this:

我想让大家关注的是：

the exceptional musicians didn't start spending more time in deliberate practice

相比一般的音乐家，

那些杰出的音乐家并没有 花更多时间在刻意练习上，

than the average musicians

until their third instrument.

而是会尝试到第三样乐器，

They, too, tended to have a sampling period,

当然，他们也有那一段“试水期”。

even musicians we think of as famously precocious,

即便我们能想到的 像马友友那样早慧的

like Yo-Yo Ma.

音乐家，

He had a sampling period,

他也有一个“试水期”，

只不过相比大多数音乐家， 他的“试水期”更短而已。

he just went through it more rapidly than most musicians do.

Nonetheless, this research is almost entirely ignored,

即便如此，这项研究 却几乎被完全忽略了，

and much more impactful

取而代之更具影响力的是

is the first page of the book "Battle Hymn of the Tiger Mother,"

《虎妈的战歌》这本书的首页，

where the author recounts assigning her daughter violin.

作者讲述了强制安排 女儿学小提琴的故事。

Nobody seems to remember the part later in the book

似乎无人记得书中后面的部分，

她女儿说： “学琴是你选的，不是我，”

where her daughter turns to her and says, "You picked it, not me,"

而且几乎完全放弃了。

and largely quits.

So having seen this sort of surprising pattern in sports and music,

所以在体育和音乐方面， 了解到这类出人意料的情况后，

I started to wonder about domains that affect even more people,

我开始对其他能影响 更多人的领域充满好奇，

like education.

诸如教育领域。

An economist found a natural experiment

一位经济学家在英格兰 和苏格兰的高等教育体系里

in the higher-ed systems of England and Scotland.

发现了一个自然实验。

在他开展研究期间， 这两个体系十分相似，

In the period he studied, the systems were very similar,

except in England, students had to specialize in their mid-teen years

除了在英格兰， 学生需要在十几岁时

to pick a specific course of study to apply to,

选择一门专业学科进行专攻，

whereas in Scotland, they could keep trying things in the university

而在苏格兰，如果他们愿意，

可以继续在大学不断尝试。

if they wanted to.

这个经济学家提出的问题是：

And his question was:

谁是最后赢家， 先来者，还是后到者？

Who wins the trade-off, the early or the late specializers?

And what he saw was that the early specializers jump out to an income lead

经济学家发现， 那些专攻者会在收入上领先，

因为他们拥有更多 专业领域的能力。

because they have more domain-specific skills.

而那些晚专攻者 可以做更多不同尝试，

The late specializers get to try more different things,

一旦做出了选择， 匹配度也会更高，

and when they do pick, they have better fit,

用经济学家的话来说， 就是“匹配质量”更好。

or what economists call "match quality."

And so their growth rates are faster.

因此他们的收入增长更快，

By six years out,

六年之后，

they erase that income gap.

这种收入差距被抹平。

Meanwhile, the early specializers start quitting their career tracks

与此同时，更多早期专攻者

开始退出原定的职业路线，

in much higher numbers,

essentially because they were made to choose so early

究其根源，是因为 他们太早被迫做出选择，

that they more often made poor choices.

通常他们的选择并不明智。

所以，虽然晚专攻者 短期来看处于落后地位，

So the late specializers lose in the short term

and win in the long run.

却赢在长期发展。

如果我们把选择职业看作约会，

I think if we thought about career choice like dating,

就不会逼对方尽快安定下来。

we might not pressure people to settle down quite so quickly.

再次看到这种模式 让我非常好奇，

So this got me interested, seeing this pattern again,

想探究那些人的发展背景—— 他们的工作我向来羡慕不已，

in exploring the developmental backgrounds of people whose work I had long admired,

像艾灵顿公爵（Duke Ellington， 美国黑人音乐家），他小时候曾逃掉音乐课，

like Duke Ellington, who shunned music lessons as a kid

去专心练习棒球、油画和绘画。

to focus on baseball and painting and drawing.

或者像玛丽安·米尔札哈尼 （Maryam Mirzakhani），

Or Maryam Mirzakhani, who wasn't interested in math as a girl --

小时候对数学没有兴趣， 而是梦想成为小说家——

dreamed of becoming a novelist --

但她最终成为了第一个， 也是迄今为止唯一一个

and went on to become the first and so far only woman

获得“菲尔兹奖”的女性，

to win the Fields Medal,

这是数学界最有声望的奖项。

the most prestigious prize in the world in math.

又或是梵高，曾从事过 5 种不同的职业——

Or Vincent Van Gogh had five different careers,

每一个都曾被他认为是 真正的使命，却都辉煌的幻灭了——

each of which he deemed his true calling before flaming out spectacularly,

and in his late 20s, picked up a book called "The Guide to the ABCs of Drawing."

而在年近三十的时候， 他拿起了一本《绘画入门指南 》，

That worked out OK.

结果一发不可收拾。

Claude Shannon was an electrical engineer at the University of Michigan

克劳德·香农（Claude Shannon ） 曾就读于密歇根大学的电力工程专业，

who took a philosophy course just to fulfill a requirement,

选修哲学只是为了满足学分要求。

and in it, he learned about a near-century-old system of logic

在课程中，他了解了 有近百年历史的逻辑体系，

by which true and false statements could be coded as ones and zeros

其中真假陈述被编码为 1 和 0 ，

and solved like math problems.

被当作数学问题一样解答。

This led to the development of binary code,

于是，这一发现促进了 二进位码的发展，

which underlies all of our digital computers today.

奠定了今天所有数字计算机的基础。

Finally, my own sort of role model, Frances Hesselbein --

最后，我的榜样 弗朗西斯·赫塞尔本 （Frances Hesselbein）——

this is me with her --

这是我们的合照——

she took her first professional job at the age of 54

她在 54 岁时才开始从事 第一份专职工作，

and went on to become the CEO of the Girl Scouts,

并成为女童子军 （Girl Scouts）的首席执行官，

which she saved.

而正是她拯救了这个机构。

She tripled minority membership,

她使少数族裔成员人数 增加了两倍，

added 130,000 volunteers,

新招募了 13 万名志愿者，

and this is one of the proficiency badges that came out of her tenure --

这是她任职期间 颁发的精通奖章之一——

it's binary code for girls learning about computers.

是奖励学习电脑的 女孩的二进位码。

Today, Frances runs a leadership institute

现在，弗朗西斯经营着 一家领导力培训机构，

where she works every weekday, in Manhattan.

工作日在曼哈顿上班。

And she's only 104,

她只有 104 岁，

so who knows what's next.

谁知道她接下来还会干什么。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

We never really hear developmental stories like this, do we?

我们几乎从来不会听到 这样的成长故事，对吧？

We don't hear about the research

我们很难听到研究报告指出，

获得诺贝尔奖的科学家，

that found that Nobel laureate scientists are 22 times more likely

有一项业余爱好的可能性

to have a hobby outside of work

as are typical scientists.

比普通科学家高出 22 倍——

We never hear that.

从未听说过。

即便表演者声名显赫， 作品成绩斐然，

Even when the performers or the work is very famous,

we don't hear these developmental stories.

我们也很难听到他们的成长故事。

例如，这是一位我所关注的运动员。

For example, here's an athlete I've followed.

Here he is at age six, wearing a Scottish rugby kit.

这是他 6 岁时穿着 苏格兰橄榄球球服的照片，

他尝试过网球、滑雪、摔跤。

He tried some tennis, some skiing, wrestling.

His mother was actually a tennis coach but she declined to coach him

他母亲是个网球教练， 但拒绝训练他，

because he wouldn't return balls normally.

因为他通常都不回球。

He did some basketball, table tennis, swimming.

他也尝试了篮球、乒乓球、游泳，

When his coaches wanted to move him up a level

当他的教练想让他再进一级，

to play with older boys,

和年纪更大点的男孩 一同训练时，

he declined, because he just wanted to talk about pro wrestling

他表示拒绝，因为他只想 在和朋友训练结束之后

讨论一下职业摔跤。

after practice with his friends.

他还继续尝试了 更多的体育项目：

And he kept trying more sports:

handball, volleyball, soccer, badminton, skateboarding ...

手球、排球、足球、 羽毛球、滑板......

So, who is this dabbler?

那么，这个浅尝者究竟是谁？

This is Roger Federer.

他就是罗杰·费德勒 （Roger Federer）。

Every bit as famous as an adult as Tiger Woods,

成年后的他和老虎·伍兹 一样大名鼎鼎，

and yet even tennis enthusiasts don't usually know anything

而即便是网球爱好者，

对他的成长故事也一无所知。

about his developmental story.

Why is that, even though it's the norm?

即便这是常态， 但背后的原因是什么呢？

I think it's partly because the Tiger story is very dramatic,

个人认为，部分原因是 老虎的故事极富戏剧性，

but also because it seems like this tidy narrative

但也因为通过这个 看似顺理成章的叙事，

that we can extrapolate to anything that we want to be good at

我们可以推断出任何 我们想要在自己的生活中

in our own lives.

做得更好的事情。

But that, I think, is a problem,

但我认为， 这其中存在一个问题，

because it turns out that in many ways, golf is a uniquely horrible model

因为我们发现，在很多方面， 高尔夫都是一种独特、糟糕的模式，

几乎概括了所有人们想要学的东西。

of almost everything that humans want to learn.

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Golf is the epitome of

高尔夫

被心理学家罗宾 · 贺加斯 （Robin Hogarth） 称为“友好学习环境”的典型。

what the psychologist Robin Hogarth called a "kind learning environment."

Kind learning environments have next steps and goals that are clear,

友好的学习环境有着 清晰的步骤和目标，

rules that are clear and never change,

以及明确且一成不变的规则，

when you do something, you get feedback that is quick and accurate,

当你行动时， 能收到及时、准确的反馈，

明年的工作和去年的工作 基本大同小异。

work next year will look like work last year.

Chess: also a kind learning environment.

象棋也提供了 一种温和友好的学习环境。

The grand master's advantage

国际象棋特级大师的优势，

is largely based on knowledge of recurring patterns,

很大程度是基于 对反复出现的模式的把握，

which is also why it's so easy to automate.

这也是象棋可以 轻易自动化的原因。

On the other end of the spectrum are "wicked learning environments,"

另一个极端是“恶劣的学习环境”，

没有清晰的步骤和目标，

where next steps and goals may not be clear.

Rules may change.

规则也可能改变。

You may or may not get feedback when you do something.

采取行动，不确定能否得到反馈，

It may be delayed, it may be inaccurate,

反馈可能延误，也许不准确，

and work next year may not look like work last year.

明年的工作和去年的工作 也许大不相同。

So which one of these sounds like the world we're increasingly living in?

那么哪一种听起来 更像我们所生活的世界？

In fact, our need to think in an adaptable manner

事实上，我们对 一种与时俱进的思维

and to keep track of interconnecting parts

和持续追踪交互部分的需求

has fundamentally changed our perception,

已经从根本上改变了我们的认知，

so that when you look at this diagram,

所以，但你看到这张图时，

the central circle on the right probably looks larger to you

右边中央的圆圈可能看起来更大，

because your brain is drawn to

因为你的大脑

the relationship of the parts in the whole,

受到了整体和各部分关系的影响，

whereas someone who hasn't been exposed to modern work

相比之下，没有接触现代工作的人，

with its requirement for adaptable, conceptual thought,

会因为缺少现代工作对 适应性、概念性思想的要求，

will see correctly that the central circles are the same size.

而正确的判断出 两边中央的圆圈大小相同。

So here we are in the wicked work world,

而目前我们身处的正是 一种复杂多变的工作环境，

and there, sometimes hyperspecialization can backfire badly.

有时过度专业化可能会适得其反。

For example, in research in a dozen countries

例如，在一项针对 十多个国家的研究中，

that matched people for their parents' years of education,

被研究者与其父母受教育的年限，

their test scores,

他们自身的考试成绩

their own years of education,

以及教育年限进行匹配。

the difference was some got career-focused education

其中的差别在于， 部分人接受了职业教育，

and some got broader, general education.

另一部分接受了 更广泛的通识教育。

The pattern was those who got the career-focused education

其中的模式是， 接受职业教育的人，

更有可能在训练结束后 被直接录用，

are more likely to be hired right out of training,

more likely to make more money right away,

也更可能立刻赚到更多钱，

but so much less adaptable in a changing work world

而他们在一个不断变化的 就业环境中适应性不强，

在整体人力资本中 投入的时间更少，

that they spend so much less time in the workforce overall

that they win in the short term and lose in the long run.

便会赢在短期，而输在长期。

Or consider a famous, 20-year study of experts

再来了解一下 一个耗时 20 年，针对专家们

making geopolitical and economic predictions.

进行的围绕地缘政治 和经济预测的著名研究。

The worst forecasters were the most specialized experts,

最糟的预测者恰恰是 某个领域的专家，

those who'd spent their entire careers studying one or two problems

他们耗费毕生精力 研究一到两个课题，

and came to see the whole world through one lens or mental model.

只能以一种视角 或者心智模式看世界。

Some of them actually got worse

随着他们经验的积累 和资历的提升，

as they accumulated experience and credentials.

有些人甚至情况更糟。

The best forecasters were simply bright people with wide-ranging interests.

优秀的预测者则是那些 兴趣广博的通达之人。

Now in some domains, like medicine,

当然，在某些领域，诸如医学，

increasing specialization has been both inevitable and beneficial,

日益提升的专业化技能 不可避免且大有裨益，

no question about it.

这一点是毋庸置疑。

And yet, it's been a double-edged sword.

然而高度专业化 仍是一把双刃剑。

几年前，有一种 治疗膝盖疼痛的外科手术

A few years ago, one of the most popular surgeries in the world for knee pain

was tested in a placebo-controlled trial.

与安慰剂对照组试验一同展开，

Some of the patients got "sham surgery."

一些患者接受了“虚假手术”，

That means the surgeons make an incision,

也就是说，医生会 （在患者膝盖上）切开一个切口，

they bang around like they're doing something,

接着忙前忙后， 就像在进行手术，

然后将病人的伤口直接缝合。

then they sew the patient back up.

效果同样很不错。

That performed just as a well.

And yet surgeons who specialize in the procedure continue to do it

而专业外科医生 则继续为数百万人

by the millions.

实施了真正的手术。

So if hyperspecialization isn't always the trick in a wicked world, what is?

如果高度专业化并不是 险恶世界的解药，什么才是呢？

That can be difficult to talk about,

这就很难说了，

因为相关途径并不总是清晰明了，

because it doesn't always look like this path.

Sometimes it looks like meandering or zigzagging

有时看起来非常迂回曲折，

or keeping a broader view.

或需要更广阔的视角。

It can look like getting behind.

看起来可能让人觉得是落后了。

But I want to talk about what some of those tricks might be.

但我想谈谈一些可能的解决方案。

如果我们看看技术创新的研究， 会发现越来越多

If we look at research on technological innovation, it shows that increasingly,

最有影响力的专利作者

the most impactful patents are not authored by individuals

who drill deeper, deeper, deeper into one area of technology

并不是那些在经过 美国专利局分类的技术领域

as classified by the US Patent Office,

不断深入探索的研究者，

but rather by teams that include individuals

而是一个个团队，

who have worked across a large number of different technology classes

这些团队中包括了跨越 大量不同技术类别的个人，

并且经常将来自 不同领域的信息结合在一起。

and often merge things from different domains.

Someone whose work I've admired who was sort of on the forefront of this

有一位这个领域的引领者，

我很羡慕他的工作，他的名字叫 横井军平（Gunpei Yokoi），是个日本人。

is a Japanese man named Gunpei Yokoi.

Yokoi didn't score well on his electronics exams at school,

横井在学校的电子学考试 成绩并不理想，

so he had to settle for a low-tier job as a machine maintenance worker

所以他不得不退而求其次， 在京都的一个扑克牌公司

at a playing card company in Kyoto.

做一名底层的机器维护工。

He realized he wasn't equipped to work on the cutting edge,

他意识到自己并不具备 在前沿领域工作的能力，

but that there was so much information easily available

但有太多的可以轻易获取的信息，

that maybe he could combine things that were already well-known

也许他可以把那些 众所周知的信息

in ways that specialists were too narrow to see.

以专家们看不到的方式结合起来。

So he combined some well-known technology from the calculator industry

他将计算器行业的 某项公开技术

with some well-known technology from the credit card industry

和信用卡行业的 某项公开技术加以整合，

and made handheld games.

推出了一款掌上游戏机，

And they were a hit.

从而一鸣惊人。

And it turned this playing card company,

这项发明让这家

which was founded in a wooden storefront in the 19th century,

成立于 19 世纪， 拥有木质门店的扑克牌公司，

into a toy and game operation.

摇身一变成为了 一家玩具和游戏公司。

You may have heard of it; it's called Nintendo.

你们也许都听说过： 它就是任天堂。

Yokoi's creative philosophy

横井的创意哲学

translated to "lateral thinking with withered technology,"

可以诠释为 “利用旧有技术进行横向思维”，

taking well-known technology and using it in new ways.

即用创新方法使用已知的技术。

And his magnum opus was this:

他的代表作就是：

the Game Boy.

游戏小子（Game Boy）。

Technological joke in every way.

无论从哪个角度听上去 都是个技术笑话。

And it came out at the same time as color competitors from Saga and Atari,

它和竞争对手萨迦（Saga）和 雅达利（Atari）同时推出了彩色游戏，

and it blew them away,

最终力压对手，

because Yokoi knew what his customers cared about

因为横井知道 他的顾客最关心的

wasn't color.

并不是色彩，

It was durability, portability, affordability, battery life,

而是耐久性、便携性、 价格、电池寿命，

game selection.

还有游戏选择。

This is mine that I found in my parents' basement.

这是我当年的游戏机， 在我爸妈的地下室找到的。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

It's seen better days.

它见证了掌上游戏机的 辉煌时代。

But you can see the red light is on.

不过我们可以看到， 红灯还能亮起。

我开机之后，玩了一会儿 俄罗斯方块，

I flipped it on and played some Tetris,

我觉得这一点尤其令人惊叹，

which I thought was especially impressive

因为这两套电池在 2007 年 和 2013 年就过期了。

because the batteries had expired in 2007 and 2013.

（笑声）

(Laughter)

So this breadth advantage holds in more subjective realms as well.

这种广度优势 也适用于更主观的领域。

In a fascinating study of what leads some comic book creators

在一项关于是什么 导致了一些漫画作者

to be more likely to make blockbuster comics,

更有可能创作出轰动漫画的 有趣的研究中，

a pair of researchers found

两位研究人员发现，

that it was neither the number of years of experience in the field

决定因素既不是 在该领域的多年经验，

nor the resources of the publisher

也不是出版商的资源，

nor the number of previous comics made.

更不是之前创作的漫画数量，

It was the number of different genres that a creator had worked across.

而是该作者所创作过的 不同类型作品的数量。

And interestingly,

有趣的是，

a broad individual could not be entirely replaced

一个通才

很难被一组专才所替代。

by a team of specialists.

We probably don't make as many of those people as we could

我们可能没有尽可能多的 去培养这类通才，

because early on, they just look like they're behind

因为在早期， 他们只是看起来落后了，

and we don't tend to incentivize anything that doesn't look like a head start

我们也不倾向于 激励任何看起来不像是

or specialization.

前沿技术或专业化的东西。

In fact, I think in the well-meaning drive for a head start,

事实上，我认为出于良好的动机， 为了抢先一步，

we often even counterproductively short-circuit even the way

我们甚至经常在基础阶段

we learn new material,

有意寻求学习新知识的捷径，

at a fundamental level.

结果却适得其反。

In a study last year, seventh-grade math classrooms in the US

在去年的一项研究中， 美国一组七年级的数学班级

were randomly assigned to different types of learning.

被随机分配了不同的学习方式。

Some got what's called "blocked practice."

有些进行了所谓的“分组练习”，

That's like, you get problem type A,

比如只让你解决 A 类问题，

AAAAA, BBBBB, and so on.

然后是 B 类， C 类，等等。

Progress is fast,

进展非常顺利，

kids are happy,

孩子们也很开心，

everything's great.

一切都井然有序。

Other classrooms got assigned to what's called "interleaved practice."

其他一些班级则被要求 进行所谓的“交错练习”，

That's like if you took all the problem types and threw them in a hat

就好比把各种类型的问题 通通丢进一顶帽子，

and drew them out at random.

然后随机抽取进行解答。

这种学习方式进展更缓慢， 孩子们也更沮丧。

Progress is slower, kids are more frustrated.

But instead of learning how to execute procedures,

但是比起学习如何执行程序，

they're learning how to match a strategy to a type of problem.

他们正在学习如何把每类问题 与一类应对策略匹配。

And when the test comes around,

在进行测试的时候，

the interleaved group blew the block practice group away.

“交错练习”小组一举打败了 “分组练习”小组，

It wasn't even close.

而且差距非常明显。

Now, I found a lot of this research deeply counterintuitive,

我发现诸多这类研究的结论 都是违反直觉的，

the idea that a head start,

也就是说，

whether in picking a career or a course of study

无论是选择一项职业、 一门课程，

还是单纯学习新知识，

or just in learning new material,

can sometimes undermine long-term development.

抢先一步有时会对 长期发展产生负面影响。

And naturally, I think there are as many ways to succeed

自然而然的，我也认为 成功的人就有多少，

as there are people.

成功的途径就有多少。

But I think we tend only to incentivize and encourage the Tiger path,

我们通常更倾向于激励和鼓舞人们 跟随老虎成功的脚步，

when increasingly, in a wicked world,

然而在竞争激烈的世界中，

we need people who travel the Roger path as well.

我们则需要更多人 选择罗杰式的道路。

Or as the eminent physicist and mathematician

正如杰出的物理学家、数学家，

and wonderful writer, Freeman Dyson, put it --

以及优秀的作家弗里曼·戴森 （Freeman Dyson）所说——

and Dyson passed away yesterday,

顺便告知各位， 戴森昨天去世了，

so I hope I'm doing his words honor here --

所以我也希望 借此表达对他的敬意——

as he said: for a healthy ecosystem, we need both birds and frogs.

正如他所说：对于一个 良好的生态系统，鸟类和蛙类同样重要。

Frogs are down in the mud,

青蛙深入池底，

seeing all the granular details.

细枝末节尽收眼底；

The birds are soaring up above not seeing those details

鸟类翱翔云天， 无法触及那些细节，

but integrating the knowledge of the frogs.

却能整合青蛙的所知所想。

And we need both.

这两者我们都需要。

The problem, Dyson said,

戴森说，主要问题是，

is that we're telling everyone to become frogs.

我们正在告诉所有人去成为青蛙。

And I think,

而我认为，

in a wicked world,

在一个复杂的世界里，

that's increasingly shortsighted.

这种做法正在变得 越来越目光短浅。

Thank you very much.

十分感谢。

(Applause)

（鼓掌）