Why specializing early doesn't always mean career success | David Epstein

Transcriber: Leslie Gauthier Reviewer: Camille Martínez

Prevoditelj: Mirela Ivoš Recezent: Sanda Liker

So, I'd like to talk about the development of human potential,

Pa, volio bih pričati o razvoju ljudskog potencijala

and I'd like to start with maybe the most impactful modern story of development.

i započeo bih s možda najutjecajnijom modernom pričom razvoja.

Many of you here have probably heard of the 10,000 hours rule.

Mnogi su od vas vjerojatno čuli o pravilu 10 000 sati.

Maybe you even model your own life after it.

Možda čak svoj život oblikujete prema njemu.

Basically, it's the idea that to become great in anything,

U osnovi, ideja je da kako biste postali odlični u nečemu,

it takes 10,000 hours of focused practice,

potrebno je 10 000 sati usredotočene vježbe,

so you'd better get started as early as possible.

stoga bolje krenite što je prije moguće.

The poster child for this story is Tiger Woods.

Primjer djeteta za ovu priču je Tiger Woods.

His father famously gave him a putter when he was seven months old.

Poznato je kako mu je otac dao palicu kad je imao sedam mjeseci.

At 10 months, he started imitating his father's swing.

S deset je mjeseci počeo imitirati očev zamah.

At two, you can go on YouTube and see him on national television.

S dvije godine, možete ga pronaći na YouTubeu i na nacionalnoj televiziji.

Fast-forward to the age of 21,

Brzo premotajmo do 21. godine,

he's the greatest golfer in the world.

postao je najbolji golfer na svijetu.

Savršeni primjer priče o 10 000 sati.

Quintessential 10,000 hours story.

Another that features in a number of bestselling books

Još jedna koja se pojavljuje u nizu najprodavanijih knjiga

jest ona o tri sestre Polgar,

is that of the three Polgar sisters,

whose father decided to teach them chess in a very technical manner

čiji ih je otac odlučio naučiti igrati šah na vrlo tehnički način

from a very early age.

od vrlo rane dobi.

And, really, he wanted to show

I, zaista, htio je pokazati

that with a head start in focused practice,

kako s početnom prednosti u usredotočenoj vježbi

svako dijete može postati genij u bilo čemu.

any child could become a genius in anything.

And in fact,

I zapravo,

two of his daughters went on to become Grandmaster chess players.

dvije od njegovih kćeri postale su velemajstorske šahistice.

So when I became the science writer at "Sports Illustrated" magazine,

Pa, kada sam počeo pisati o znanosti u časopisu "Sports Illustrated",

I got curious.

postao sam znatiželjan.

If this 10,000 hours rule is correct,

Ako je ovo pravilo 10 000 sati točno,

then we should see that elite athletes get a head start

onda bismo trebali vidjeti kako elitni sportaši dobivaju prednost

in so-called "deliberate practice."

kroz takozvanu namjernu vježbu.

This is coached, error-correction-focused practice,

Ovo je trenirana praksa usmjerena na ispravljanje pogrešaka,

not just playing around.

ne samo igranje.

And in fact, when scientists study elite athletes,

I zapravo, kada znanstvenici proučavaju elitne sportaše,

vide kako oni provedu više vremena namjerno vježbajući -

they see that they spend more time in deliberate practice --

nije veliko iznenađenje.

not a big surprise.

Kada zapravo prate sportaše tijekom njihova razvoja,

When they actually track athletes over the course of their development,

the pattern looks like this:

obrazac izgleda ovako:

buduća elita zapravo provede manje vremena u početku

the future elites actually spend less time early on

in deliberate practice in their eventual sport.

namjerno vježbajući svoj budući sport.

They tend to have what scientists call a "sampling period,"

Oni su skloniji provesti ono što znanstvenici zovu probnim periodom,

where they try a variety of physical activities,

gdje isprobavaju različite fizičke aktivnosti,

they gain broad, general skills,

razviju široke, opće vještine,

nauče nešto o svojim interesima i sposobnostima,

they learn about their interests and abilities

i odgode specijalizaciju

and delay specializing until later than peers who plateau at lower levels.

za kasnije u odnosu na vršnjake koji dosegnu vrhunac na nižim razinama.

And so when I saw that, I said,

Stoga, kad sam to vidio, rekao sam:

"Bože, to baš i nije u skladu s pravilom 10 000 sati, zar ne?"

"Gosh, that doesn't really comport with the 10,000 hours rule, does it?"

So I started to wonder about other domains

Pa sam se počeo pitati o drugim domenama

that we associate with obligatory, early specialization,

koje su povezane s obveznom ranom specijalizacijom,

like music.

poput glazbe.

Turns out the pattern's often similar.

Ispostavilo se da je obrazac često sličan.

This is research from a world-class music academy,

Ovo je istraživanje s glazbene akademije svjetske klase,

and what I want to draw your attention to is this:

i ono na što želim da obratite pažnju je ovo:

the exceptional musicians didn't start spending more time in deliberate practice

iznimni glazbenici nisu počeli provoditi više vremena namjeno vježbajući

than the average musicians

od prosječnih glazbenika

until their third instrument.

do svog trećeg instrumenta.

They, too, tended to have a sampling period,

Oni su također bili skloniji probnom periodu,

even musicians we think of as famously precocious,

čak i oni za koje mislimo da počeli iznimno rano,

like Yo-Yo Ma.

kao Yo-Yo Ma.

He had a sampling period,

On je imao probni period,

he just went through it more rapidly than most musicians do.

samo je kroz njega prošao brže od većine glazbenika.

Nonetheless, this research is almost entirely ignored,

Ipak, ovo istraživanje je gotovo potpuno izignorirano,

and much more impactful

a puno je utjecajnija

is the first page of the book "Battle Hymn of the Tiger Mother,"

prva strana knjige "Majke uspjeha",

where the author recounts assigning her daughter violin.

gdje autorica prepričava kako je svojoj kćeri dala violinu.

Nobody seems to remember the part later in the book

Izgleda da se nitko ne sjeća kasnijeg dijela knjige

gdje se kćer okrene prema njoj i kaže: "Ti si je odabrala, ne ja",

where her daughter turns to her and says, "You picked it, not me,"

i uglavnom odustaje.

and largely quits.

Vidjevši ovaj pomalo iznenađujući obrazac u sportu i glazbi,

So having seen this sort of surprising pattern in sports and music,

I started to wonder about domains that affect even more people,

počeo sam se pitati o domenama koje uključuju još više ljudi,

poput obrazovanja.

like education.

Ekonomist je proveo eksperiment

An economist found a natural experiment

in the higher-ed systems of England and Scotland.

u sustavu visokog obrazovanja u Engleskoj i Škotskoj.

Tijekom njegova proučavanja, sustavi su bili jako slični,

In the period he studied, the systems were very similar,

except in England, students had to specialize in their mid-teen years

osim što su se u Engleskoj studenti morali specijalizirati tijekom adolescencije

to pick a specific course of study to apply to,

kako bi odabrali studij na koji će se prijaviti,

whereas in Scotland, they could keep trying things in the university

dok su oni u Škotskoj mogli isprobavati stvari i tijekom studija ako su htjeli.

if they wanted to.

I njegovo je pitanje bilo:

And his question was:

Tko profitira, oni koji se rano ili kasno specijaliziraju?

Who wins the trade-off, the early or the late specializers?

And what he saw was that the early specializers jump out to an income lead

I uočio je kako oni koji su se ranije specijalizirali prednjače u prihodu

jer imaju vještine specifične za domenu.

because they have more domain-specific skills.

The late specializers get to try more different things,

Kasnije specijalizirani mogu isprobavati više različitih stvari,

i kada odaberu, imaju bolju usklađenost,

and when they do pick, they have better fit,

što ekonomisti zovu kvaliteta podudaranja.

or what economists call "match quality."

And so their growth rates are faster.

I stoga napreduju brže.

By six years out,

Nakon šest godina,

nestaju razlike u prihodu.

they erase that income gap.

Meanwhile, the early specializers start quitting their career tracks

U međuvremenu, rano specijalizirani počinju odustajati od karijere

in much higher numbers,

u puno većoj mjeri,

essentially because they were made to choose so early

uglavnom jer su bili prisiljeni rano odabrati

that they more often made poor choices.

te su stoga često donijeli krive odluke.

Stoga kasno specijalizirani kratkoročno gube

So the late specializers lose in the short term

and win in the long run.

i dobivaju dugoročno.

Mislim da ako mislimo o odabiru karijere kao o spojevima,

I think if we thought about career choice like dating,

možda ne bismo tjerali ljude da se skrase tako brzo.

we might not pressure people to settle down quite so quickly.

Ovo me zainteresiralo, vidjevši ovaj obrazac opet,

So this got me interested, seeing this pattern again,

proučavajući pozadinu razvoja ljudi čijem sam se radu dugo divio,

in exploring the developmental backgrounds of people whose work I had long admired,

poput Dukea Ellingtona, koji je kao dijete izbjegavao satove glazbe

like Duke Ellington, who shunned music lessons as a kid

kako bi se fokusirao na bejzbol, slikanje i crtanje.

to focus on baseball and painting and drawing.

Or Maryam Mirzakhani, who wasn't interested in math as a girl --

Ili Maryam Mirzakhani, koju matematika nije zanimala kao djevojčicu -

dreamed of becoming a novelist --

sanjala je kako će postati novinarka -

te je kasnije postala prva i dosad jedina žena

and went on to become the first and so far only woman

koja je osvojila Fieldsovu medalju,

to win the Fields Medal,

najprestižniju svjetsku nagradu u matematici.

the most prestigious prize in the world in math.

Ili Vincent van Gogh je imao pet različitih karijera,

Or Vincent Van Gogh had five different careers,

each of which he deemed his true calling before flaming out spectacularly,

a svaku je smatrao svojim pravim pozivom prije nego što se spektakularno rasplamsao

and in his late 20s, picked up a book called "The Guide to the ABCs of Drawing."

i u svojim kasnim 20-im uzeo knjigu "Vodič u abecedu crtanja".

That worked out OK.

To je ispalo OK.

Claude Shannon was an electrical engineer at the University of Michigan

Claude Shannon je bio elektroinženjer na Sveučilištu u Michiganu

koji je pohađao filozofiju kako bi ispunio uslov,

who took a philosophy course just to fulfill a requirement,

i ondje je naučio o skoro stoljeće starom sustavu logike

and in it, he learned about a near-century-old system of logic

by which true and false statements could be coded as ones and zeros

prema kojem se istinite i lažne tvrdnje mogu kodirati kao jedinice i nule

and solved like math problems.

i riješiti kao matematički problemi.

This led to the development of binary code,

Ovo je dovelo do razvoja binarnog koda,

which underlies all of our digital computers today.

koji stoji u podlozi svih naših digitalnih računala danas.

Finally, my own sort of role model, Frances Hesselbein --

Konačno, moj osobni uzor, Frances Hesselbein -

this is me with her --

ovo sam ja s njom -

she took her first professional job at the age of 54

našla je svoj prvi profesionalni posao s 54 godine

and went on to become the CEO of the Girl Scouts,

i postala direktorica Izviđačica,

which she saved.

koje je spasila.

She tripled minority membership,

Utrostručila je članstvo manjina,

added 130,000 volunteers,

dodala 130 000 volontera

and this is one of the proficiency badges that came out of her tenure --

i to je jedna od znački vještina koje su proizašle iz njenog rada -

it's binary code for girls learning about computers.

to je binarni kod za djevojčice koje uče o računalima.

Today, Frances runs a leadership institute

Danas Frances vodi Institut vodstva,

where she works every weekday, in Manhattan.

gdje radi svakog radnog dana, na Manhattanu.

And she's only 104,

I ima tek 104 godine,

so who knows what's next.

tko zna što je iduće.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

We never really hear developmental stories like this, do we?

Nikad zapravo ne čujemo ovakve priče o razvoju, zar ne?

Ne čujemo o istraživanju

We don't hear about the research

koje je otkrilo da je 22 puta vjerojatnije da znanstvenici nobelovci

that found that Nobel laureate scientists are 22 times more likely

to have a hobby outside of work

imaju hobi van posla

as are typical scientists.

nego tipični znanstvenici.

We never hear that.

I nikad to ne čujemo.

Even when the performers or the work is very famous,

Čak i kad su izvođači ili posao jako poznati,

we don't hear these developmental stories.

ne čujemo o tim pričama razvoja.

Primjerice, evo sportaš kojeg sam pratio.

For example, here's an athlete I've followed.

Ovdje je sa šest godina, nosi opremu za škotski ragbi.

Here he is at age six, wearing a Scottish rugby kit.

Probao je tenis, skijanje, hrvanje.

He tried some tennis, some skiing, wrestling.

His mother was actually a tennis coach but she declined to coach him

Njegova je majka bila trenerica tenisa, ali ga je odbila trenirati

because he wouldn't return balls normally.

jer nije normalno vraćao lopte.

Probao je košarku, stolni tenis, plivanje.

He did some basketball, table tennis, swimming.

When his coaches wanted to move him up a level

Kad su treneri željeli da napreduje

to play with older boys,

i igra sa starijim dečkima,

he declined, because he just wanted to talk about pro wrestling

odbio je jer je htio pričati o profesionalnom hrvanju

nakon treninga s prijateljima.

after practice with his friends.

I isprobavao je više sportova:

And he kept trying more sports:

handball, volleyball, soccer, badminton, skateboarding ...

rukomet, odbojku, nogomet, badminton, skejtanje...

So, who is this dabbler?

Pa, tko je ovaj diletant?

This is Roger Federer.

Ovo je Roger Federer.

Every bit as famous as an adult as Tiger Woods,

Jednako poznat kao odrastao poput Tigera Woodsa,

and yet even tennis enthusiasts don't usually know anything

a čak ni ljubitelji tenisa ne znaju ništa

o njegovoj razvojnoj priči.

about his developmental story.

Why is that, even though it's the norm?

Zašto je to tako, iako je norma?

I think it's partly because the Tiger story is very dramatic,

Mislim da je djelomično zbog toga jer je Tigerova priča vrlo dramatična,

but also because it seems like this tidy narrative

ali također zbog urednog narativa

that we can extrapolate to anything that we want to be good at

koji želimo primijeniti na sve u čemu mi želimo biti dobri

in our own lives.

u vlastitim životima.

But that, I think, is a problem,

Ali to je, smatram, problem

because it turns out that in many ways, golf is a uniquely horrible model

jer se ispostavilo da je na mnogo načina golf jedinstveno užasan model

of almost everything that humans want to learn.

gotovo svega što ljudi žele naučiti.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

Golf is the epitome of

Golf je oličenje

what the psychologist Robin Hogarth called a "kind learning environment."

onog što je psiholog Robin Hogart nazvao "ugodna okolina za učenje".

Kind learning environments have next steps and goals that are clear,

Ugodna okolina za učenje ima jasno postavljene korake i ciljeve,

rules that are clear and never change,

pravila koja su jasna i nepromjenjiva,

when you do something, you get feedback that is quick and accurate,

kad nešto učinite, dobijete povratnu informaciju koja je brza i točna,

rad iduće godine izgledat će kao prošlogodišnji.

work next year will look like work last year.

Chess: also a kind learning environment.

Šah: također ugodna okolina za učenje.

The grand master's advantage

Prednost velemajstora

is largely based on knowledge of recurring patterns,

često se bazira na poznavanju ponavljajućih obrazaca,

which is also why it's so easy to automate.

što je također razlog zašto se lako automatizira.

On the other end of the spectrum are "wicked learning environments,"

Na drugom kraju spektra je kaotična okolina za učenje,

gdje idući koraci i ciljevi možda nisu jasni.

where next steps and goals may not be clear.

Rules may change.

Pravila se mijenjaju.

You may or may not get feedback when you do something.

Možeš ali i ne moraš dobiti povratnu informaciju kad nešto napraviš.

It may be delayed, it may be inaccurate,

Možda bude odgođena ili netočna,

and work next year may not look like work last year.

i rad iduće godine ne mora izgledati kao prošlogodišnji.

So which one of these sounds like the world we're increasingly living in?

Pa što od ovoga zvuči kao svijet u kojem sve više živimo?

In fact, our need to think in an adaptable manner

Zapravo, naša potreba da mislimo na prilagodljivi način

and to keep track of interconnecting parts

i držimo korak s povezanim dijelovima

iz temelja je promijenila našu percepciju,

has fundamentally changed our perception,

so that when you look at this diagram,

pa ako pogledate ovaj dijagram,

središnji krug desno vjerojatno vam izgleda veće

the central circle on the right probably looks larger to you

because your brain is drawn to

jer je vaš mozak povučen

the relationship of the parts in the whole,

vezom dijelova u cjelini,

whereas someone who hasn't been exposed to modern work

dok netko tko nije izložen modernom radu

with its requirement for adaptable, conceptual thought,

s njegovim zahtjevom za adaptivnim, konceptualnim mišljenjem,

will see correctly that the central circles are the same size.

točno će uočiti da su središnji krugovi iste veličine.

So here we are in the wicked work world,

I eto nas u kaotičnom svijetu posla,

and there, sometimes hyperspecialization can backfire badly.

i ondje, ponekad, visoka specijalizacija može imati kontraefekt.

For example, in research in a dozen countries

Primjerice, u istraživanju u dvanaestak zemalja

that matched people for their parents' years of education,

povezali su ljude s godinama obrazovanja njihovih roditelja,

their test scores,

rezultatima testova

their own years of education,

i vlastitih godina obrazovanja.

the difference was some got career-focused education

Razlika je što su neki imali obrazovanje usmjereno na karijeru,

and some got broader, general education.

a drugi široko, opće obrazovanje.

The pattern was those who got the career-focused education

Obrazac je kako se oni usmjereni na karijeru

are more likely to be hired right out of training,

zapošljavaju odmah nakon obrazovanja,

more likely to make more money right away,

češće zarađuju više u početku,

but so much less adaptable in a changing work world

ali su manje adaptivni u promjenjivom svijetu posla

pa provedu manje vremena ukupno zaposleni,

that they spend so much less time in the workforce overall

that they win in the short term and lose in the long run.

stoga dobivaju kratkoročno i gube dugoročno.

Or consider a famous, 20-year study of experts

Ili uzmimo u obzir poznatu 20-godišnju studiju eksperata

making geopolitical and economic predictions.

koji su kreirali geopolitička i ekonomska predviđanja.

The worst forecasters were the most specialized experts,

Najgori prognostičari bili su najspecijaliziraniji eksperti,

those who'd spent their entire careers studying one or two problems

oni koji su kroz cijelu karijeru proučavali jedan ili dva problema

and came to see the whole world through one lens or mental model.

i počeli gledati cijeli svijet kroz jednu leću ili mentalni model.

Some of them actually got worse

Neki su se zapravo pogoršali

kako su akumulirali iskustvo i svjedodžbe.

as they accumulated experience and credentials.

The best forecasters were simply bright people with wide-ranging interests.

Najbolji prognostičari bili su jednostavno bistri ljudi sa širokim rasponom interesa.

Now in some domains, like medicine,

Sad, u nekim domenama, poput medicine,

increasing specialization has been both inevitable and beneficial,

visoka specijalizacija neizbježna je i korisna,

no question about it.

to je neupitno.

And yet, it's been a double-edged sword.

Ali ipak, to je dvosjekli mač.

Prije nekoliko godina,

A few years ago, one of the most popular surgeries in the world for knee pain

jedna od najpopularnijih svjetskih operacija boli u koljenu

was tested in a placebo-controlled trial.

testirana je placebo kontroliranim ispitivanjem.

Some of the patients got "sham surgery."

Neki su pacijenti imali lažnu operaciju.

That means the surgeons make an incision,

Znači da su kirurzi napravili rez,

they bang around like they're doing something,

pravili se da rade nešto

then they sew the patient back up.

i onda zašili pacijenta.

To je također pomoglo.

That performed just as a well.

And yet surgeons who specialize in the procedure continue to do it

I ipak kirurzi koji specijaliziraju zahvat nastavljaju ga provoditi

by the millions.

na milijunima.

So if hyperspecialization isn't always the trick in a wicked world, what is?

Pa ako visoka specijalizacija nije uvijek ključ u kaotičnom svijetu, što je?

That can be difficult to talk about,

O tome može biti teško razgovarati

jer ne izgleda uvijek kao ovakav put.

because it doesn't always look like this path.

Sometimes it looks like meandering or zigzagging

Nekad izgleda kao vijugajući ili cik-cak

or keeping a broader view.

ili držanje širokog pogleda.

It can look like getting behind.

Može izgledati kao zaostajanje.

But I want to talk about what some of those tricks might be.

Ali želim pričati o tome što neki od tih trikova mogu biti.

If we look at research on technological innovation, it shows that increasingly,

Ako pogledamo istraživanja i tehnološke inovacije, pokazalo se da sve više

najutjecajnije patente nisu stvorili individualci

the most impactful patents are not authored by individuals

who drill deeper, deeper, deeper into one area of technology

koji kopaju dublje, dublje, dublje u jednom području tehnologije,

as classified by the US Patent Office,

kako klasificira Ured za patente SAD-a,

but rather by teams that include individuals

nego češće timovi koji uključuju individualce

who have worked across a large number of different technology classes

koji su radili u većem broju različitih tehnoloških klasa

i često spajaju stvari iz različitih domena.

and often merge things from different domains.

Someone whose work I've admired who was sort of on the forefront of this

Netko čijem sam se radu divio, tko je nekako prednjačio u ovome

jest Japanac po imenu Gunpei Yokoi.

is a Japanese man named Gunpei Yokoi.

Yokoi didn't score well on his electronics exams at school,

Yokoi nije dobivao dobre ocjene na svojim ispitima iz elektronike u školi

so he had to settle for a low-tier job as a machine maintenance worker

pa je morao prihvatiti lošiji posao kao radnik na održavanju strojeva

at a playing card company in Kyoto.

u tvornici igraćih karata u Kyotu.

He realized he wasn't equipped to work on the cutting edge,

Shvatio je da nije bio opremljen za rad na vrhu,

but that there was so much information easily available

ali postojalo je puno lako dostupnih informacija

that maybe he could combine things that were already well-known

pa bi možda mogao kombinirati stvari koje su već poznate

in ways that specialists were too narrow to see.

na načine za koje su stručnjaci imali preuzak pogled.

So he combined some well-known technology from the calculator industry

Stoga je spojio dobro poznatu tehnologiju industrije kalkulatora

with some well-known technology from the credit card industry

i neku dobro poznatu tehnologiju industrije kreditnih kartica

and made handheld games.

i stvorio igraće konzole.

And they were a hit.

I postale su hit.

And it turned this playing card company,

I to je pretvorilo ovu kompaniju igraćih karata,

which was founded in a wooden storefront in the 19th century,

stvorenu u drvenom izlogu u 19. stoljeću,

into a toy and game operation.

u pogon igračaka i igara.

You may have heard of it; it's called Nintendo.

Možda ste čuli za nju, zove se Nintendo.

Yokoi's creative philosophy

Yokoijeva kreativna filozofija,

translated to "lateral thinking with withered technology,"

prevedena u "lateralno razmišljanje s uvenulom tehnologijom",

taking well-known technology and using it in new ways.

uzimanje dobro poznate tehnologije i njeno korištenje na nove načine.

And his magnum opus was this:

A njegovo je remek-djelo bilo ovo:

the Game Boy.

Game Boy.

Tehnološka šala u svakom pogledu.

Technological joke in every way.

And it came out at the same time as color competitors from Saga and Atari,

I izašao je u isto vrijeme kada i konkurenti u bojama iz Sage i Atarija,

and it blew them away,

i rasturio ih je.

because Yokoi knew what his customers cared about

Jer Yokoi je znao da ono o čemu se kupci brinuli

wasn't color.

nije bila boja.

It was durability, portability, affordability, battery life,

Bila je to izdržljivost, prenosivost, pristupačnost, trajanje baterije,

game selection.

izbor igara.

This is mine that I found in my parents' basement.

Ovo je moj koji sam pronašao u podrumu svojih roditelja.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

It's seen better days.

Vidio je i bolje dane.

But you can see the red light is on.

Ali možete vidjeti da crveno svjetlo gori.

Uključio sam ga i odigrao Tetris,

I flipped it on and played some Tetris,

što sam smatrao posebno impresivnim

which I thought was especially impressive

jer su baterije istekle 2007. i 2013.

because the batteries had expired in 2007 and 2013.

(Smijeh)

(Laughter)

So this breadth advantage holds in more subjective realms as well.

Dakle, ova široka prednost vrijedi i za više subjektivnih područja.

In a fascinating study of what leads some comic book creators

U fascinantnoj studiji što neke kreatore stripova dovodi do toga

to be more likely to make blockbuster comics,

da vjerojatnije stvore uspješan strip,

a pair of researchers found

par istraživača otkrio je

that it was neither the number of years of experience in the field

kako to nisu ni godine iskustva u području,

nor the resources of the publisher

ni resursi izdavača,

nor the number of previous comics made.

ni broj prethodno kreiranih stripova.

It was the number of different genres that a creator had worked across.

Bio je to broj različitih žanrova kroz koje je kreator radio.

And interestingly,

I zanimljivo,

a broad individual could not be entirely replaced

osoba širokih interesa nije u potpunosti zamjenjiva

by a team of specialists.

timom specijalista.

We probably don't make as many of those people as we could

Vjerojatno ne stvaramo onoliko takvih ljudi koliko bismo mogli

because early on, they just look like they're behind

jer u početku izgledaju kao da zaostaju

and we don't tend to incentivize anything that doesn't look like a head start

i ne težimo poticanju ičega što ne izgleda kao prednost

or specialization.

ili specijalizacija.

In fact, I think in the well-meaning drive for a head start,

Zapravo, mislim da u dobronamjernom nagonu za prednošću

we often even counterproductively short-circuit even the way

često čak i kontraproduktivno zakinemo čak i način

we learn new material,

na koji učimo novo gradivo

at a fundamental level.

na osnovnoj razini.

In a study last year, seventh-grade math classrooms in the US

U prošlogodišnjoj studiji, učenicima 7. razreda na matematici u SAD-u

were randomly assigned to different types of learning.

po slučaju su dodijeljeni različiti tipovi učenja.

Some got what's called "blocked practice."

Neki su dobili ono što se naziva "blok vježba".

That's like, you get problem type A,

To je kao, dobijete problem tipa A,

AAAAA, BBBBB, and so on.

AAAAA, BBBBB, i tako dalje.

Progress is fast,

Napredak je brz,

kids are happy,

djeca su sretna,

everything's great.

sve je super.

Other classrooms got assigned to what's called "interleaved practice."

Drugi su dobili ono što se zove "isprepletena vježba".

That's like if you took all the problem types and threw them in a hat

To je kao da uzmete sve tipove problema i ubacite ih u šešir

and drew them out at random.

te ih izvlačite po slučaju.

Napredak je sporiji, djeca su frustriranija.

Progress is slower, kids are more frustrated.

But instead of learning how to execute procedures,

Ali umjesto učenja kako izvršiti postupke,

they're learning how to match a strategy to a type of problem.

oni uče kako spojiti strategiju s tipom problema.

And when the test comes around,

I kada dođe vrijeme testa,

the interleaved group blew the block practice group away.

isprepletena grupa rasturila je grupu s blok vježbom.

It wasn't even close.

Nije joj bila ni blizu.

Now, I found a lot of this research deeply counterintuitive,

Sada, otkrio sam da je mnogo ovih istraživanja kontraintuitivno,

the idea that a head start,

ideja da početna prednost,

whether in picking a career or a course of study

bila ona u odabiru karijere ili tijeku studija

or just in learning new material,

ili samo učenju novog gradiva,

can sometimes undermine long-term development.

može ponekad potkopati dugoročni razvoj.

And naturally, I think there are as many ways to succeed

I prirodno, smatram da postoji onoliko načina da se uspije

as there are people.

koliko ima i ljudi.

But I think we tend only to incentivize and encourage the Tiger path,

Ali mislim da težimo poticanju i ohrabrivanju puta "mame tigrice",

when increasingly, in a wicked world,

kad sve više, u kaotičnom svijetu,

we need people who travel the Roger path as well.

trebamo ljude koji putuju Rogerovim putem.

Or as the eminent physicist and mathematician

Ili kako je ugledni fizičar i matematičar

and wonderful writer, Freeman Dyson, put it --

i čudesan pisac, Freeman Dyson, rekao -

and Dyson passed away yesterday,

a Dyson je jučer preminuo

so I hope I'm doing his words honor here --

pa se nadam da njegovim riječima odajem počast -

as he said: for a healthy ecosystem, we need both birds and frogs.

kao što je rekao: za zdrav ekosustav trebamo i ptice i žabe.

Frogs are down in the mud,

Žabe su dolje u blatu,

seeing all the granular details.

gledaju sve sitne detalje.

The birds are soaring up above not seeing those details

Ptice se uzdižu gore ne gledajući te detalje,

but integrating the knowledge of the frogs.

ali integriraju znanje žaba.

And we need both.

A mi trebamo oboje.

The problem, Dyson said,

Problem je, Dyson je rekao,

is that we're telling everyone to become frogs.

što svima govorimo da postanu žabe.

And I think,

I ja smatram,

in a wicked world,

u kaotičnom svijetu,

that's increasingly shortsighted.

to je sve kratkovidnije.

Thank you very much.

Puno vam hvala.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)