Rob Hopkins: Transition to a world without oil

175,700 views ・ 2009-11-24

TED


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翻译人员: dong liu 校对人员: Angelia King
00:18
As a culture, we tell ourselves lots of stories
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在人类文明中,有很多关于未来的
00:21
about the future,
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故事,
00:23
and where we might move forward from this point.
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也许正是这些故事激励我们前行。
00:25
Some of those stories are that
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在一些故事中
00:27
somebody is just going to sort everything out for us.
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有些人努力去收集和利用所有事物。
00:30
Other stories are that everything is on the verge of unraveling.
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在另一些故事中,所有事物都濒临灭亡。
00:34
But I want to tell you a different story here today.
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但是我今天将带给你们一个不同的故事。
00:36
Like all stories, it has a beginning.
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与所有故事一样,它也有一个开头。
00:39
My work, for a long time, has been involved in education,
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在很长一段时间,我一直潜心于教育事业,
00:42
in teaching people practical skills
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教大家
00:44
for sustainability,
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可持续性实用技能,
00:46
teaching people how to take responsibility
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比如
00:48
for growing some of their own food,
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在自家种菜,
00:50
how to build buildings using local materials,
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利用本地的材料建造房子,
00:52
how to generate their own energy, and so on.
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挖掘本地的能量源等等,这些都是为了帮助人们更好的承担责任。
00:55
I lived in Ireland, built the first straw-bale houses in Ireland,
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我生活在爱尔兰,在那儿我建造了第一个稻草屋,
00:59
and some cob buildings and all this kind of thing.
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和一些圆形建筑以及类似的。
01:02
But all my work for many years was focused
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很多年来我的工作都集中在
01:05
around the idea that sustainability
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一个想法--可持续性,
01:07
means basically looking at
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它意味着:着眼于
01:09
the globalized economic growth model,
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全球经济增长模型,
01:12
and moderating what comes in at one end,
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既监控着自身就有的东西,
01:14
and moderating the outputs at the other end.
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也监控着所产出排出的东西,
01:17
And then I came into contact with a way of looking at things
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然后我就开始接触并以长远的目光观察
01:20
which actually changed that profoundly.
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在实际中变化巨大的这一切。
01:22
And in order to introduce you to that,
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为了介绍清楚,
01:24
I've got something here that I'm going to unveil,
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在这里我打算揭开
01:26
which is one of the great marvels of the modern age.
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一个当代伟大奇迹的发现。
01:29
And it's something so astounding and so astonishing
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它是如此惊天动地,
01:31
that I think maybe as I remove this cloth
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我想我还是先揭开它的面纱,
01:34
a suitable gasp of amazement might be appropriate.
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并好好喘口气,然后再告诉大家比较合适。
01:37
If you could help me with that it would be fantastic.
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如果你们能帮我一把,那就完美了。
01:44
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
01:45
This is a liter of oil.
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这儿有一升石油。
01:48
This bottle of oil,
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这瓶油
01:51
distilled over a hundred million years of geological time,
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提炼取自上亿年前的地质,
01:54
ancient sunlight,
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经过远古的阳光照射,
01:56
contains the energy equivalent of about five weeks
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它饱含的能量相当于5周的
01:58
hard human manual labor --
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艰苦的体力劳动,
02:01
equivalent to about 35 strong people
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也相当于35个壮劳力
02:05
coming round and working for you.
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为你服务。
02:08
We can turn it into a dazzling array of materials,
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我们可以用石油再加工成琳琅满目的新材料:
02:12
medicine, modern clothing,
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药物,现代纺织料,
02:14
laptops, a whole range of different things.
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笔记本电脑,还有其他不同的材料。
02:18
It gives us an energy return that's unimaginable, historically.
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石油给予我们的历史发展中所需的无法想象的能量循环。
02:23
We've based the design of our settlements,
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我们赖以生存的社区设计,
02:25
our business models, our transport plans,
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经济学模型,旅游计划,
02:27
even the idea of economic growth, some would argue,
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甚至经济增长的观点,可能有些人会怀疑,
02:30
on the assumption that we will have this in perpetuity.
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假设我们将会永久持续使用石油。
02:34
Yet, when we take a step back,
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如果我们退一步看,
02:37
and look over the span of history,
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整个人类历史,
02:39
at what we might call the petroleum interval,
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我们所谓的石油时代,
02:42
it's a short period in history
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仅仅是历史的一小段,
02:44
where we've discovered this extraordinary material,
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从我们发现这个特别的材料,
02:47
and then based a whole way of life around it.
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到完全依赖石油。
02:50
But as we straddle the top of this energy mountain, at this stage,
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但现在当我们处在能源的顶峰,
02:54
we move from a time where our economic success,
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过去,我们的经济成功,
02:57
our sense of individual prowess and well-being
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个人能力和福利
03:00
is directly linked to how much of this we consume,
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直接取决于我们消耗的石油的多少。
03:04
to a time when actually our degree of oil dependency
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到现在我们对石油的依赖
03:07
is our degree of vulnerability.
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正是我们的弱点。
03:09
And it's increasingly clear that we
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越来越清晰的表明:我们
03:11
aren't going to be able to rely on the fact that
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永远基于石油的事实
03:13
we're going to have this at our disposal forever.
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是站不住脚的。
03:16
For every four barrels of oil that we consume,
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我们每消耗4桶石油,
03:18
we only discover one.
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却只能发现1桶。
03:20
And that gap continues to widen.
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这个差距越来越大。
03:22
There is also the fact that the amount of energy
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事实是我们从石油中得到的能源
03:24
that we get back from the oil that we discover is falling.
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正在减少。
03:27
In the 1930s we got 100 units of energy back
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在1930年代,我们每个人可以从提炼石油中
03:30
for every one that we put in to extract it.
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得到100单位的能源。
03:33
Completely unprecedented, historically.
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这是空前的,历史上最多的,
03:35
Already that's fallen to about 11.
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现在,能源利用值降低为11。
03:37
And that's why, now,
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就是为什么现在,
03:39
the new breakthroughs, the new frontiers
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石油萃取的新突破技术,新边疆的
03:41
in terms of oil extraction are scrambling about in Alberta,
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争夺如此激烈,不管是在Alberta地区,
03:44
or at the bottom of the oceans.
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还是在海底。
03:46
There are 98 oil-producing nations in the world.
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世界上有98个石油生产国,
03:49
But of those, 65 have already passed their peak.
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但,其中65个已经超过了开采的峰值。
03:52
The moment when the world on average passes this peak,
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世界平均开采早晚都会超过这个峰值,
03:55
people wonder when that's going to happen.
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人们只是想知道什么时候发生。
03:57
And there is an emerging case
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一个紧急例子是
03:58
that maybe that was what happened last July
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去年7月份发生的
04:00
when the oil prices were so high.
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油价高峰。
04:02
But are we to assume that the same brilliance
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但人类的智慧,
04:04
and creativity and adaptability
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创造力、适应力
04:06
that got us up to the top of that energy mountain in the first place
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使我们第一次到达了能源的顶峰,
04:09
is somehow mysteriously going to evaporate
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当我们不得不在能源低谷探索时,
04:12
when we have to design a creative way back down the other side?
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这种智慧、创造力和适应力却莫名其妙地突然神秘蒸发了?
04:16
No. But the thinking that we have to come up with
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不是的。而是伴随这个想法的
04:19
has to be based on a realistic assessment
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基础是基于一个现实的假设,
04:22
of where we are.
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我们已经达到了开采巅峰。
04:24
There is also the issue of climate change,
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面对气候变化时,
04:26
is the other thing that underpins this transition approach.
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也同样支持了这种转变方法。
04:28
But the thing that I notice, as I talk to climate scientists,
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当我和气候学家讨论时,我注意到
04:31
is the increasingly terrified look they have in their eyes,
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他们眼里与日俱增的恐惧,
04:34
as the data that's coming in,
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伴随着最近的更新数据,
04:36
which is far ahead of what the IPCC are talking about.
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要比IPCC(联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会)讨论中的数据更有说服力,
04:40
So the IPCC said
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IPCC的结论是:
04:42
that we might see significant breakup
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我们可以预见2100年
04:44
of the arctic ice in 2100, in their worst case scenario.
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在最坏的情况下,北极冰川严重断裂。
04:47
Actually, if current trends continue,
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事实上,如果目前的趋势继续恶化,
04:50
it could all be gone in five or 10 years' time.
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它将在5年或者10年内发生。
04:52
If just three percent of the carbon locked up in the arctic permafrost
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如果北极永冻土中包含二氧化碳的3%,
04:56
is released as the world warms,
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在全球变暖中释放,
04:58
it would offset all the savings that we need to make,
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它将抵消我们所有为减少二氧化碳所做的努力,
05:00
in carbon, over the next 40 years to avoid runaway climate change.
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在未来的40年间防范难以捉摸的气候变化。
05:03
We have no choice other than deep and urgent decarbonization.
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除了我们深入实施紧急的二氧化碳减排,我们没有其他选择。
05:08
But I'm always very interested to think about
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但我一直很感兴趣地思考
05:10
what might the stories be
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故事可能是这样的:
05:12
that the generations further down the slope from us
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我们以后的几代人
05:15
are going to tell about us.
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将会告诉我们。
05:17
"The generation that lived at the top of the mountain,
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“后代们生活在山顶,
05:20
that partied so hard, and so abused its inheritance."
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忍受艰难,他们的遗产也很可怜。”
05:25
And one of the ways I like to do that
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我喜欢的方法之一是
05:27
is to look back at the stories people used to tell
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回首往事时人们通常这么说:
05:29
before we had cheap oil, before we had fossil fuels,
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在拥有便宜的汽油和化石燃料之前,
05:32
and people relied on their own muscle, animal muscle energy,
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人们依赖于他们的肌肉,动物肌肉中的能量,
05:35
or a little bit of wind, little bit of water energy.
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或者一些风能,一些水能。
05:38
We had stories like "The Seven-League Boots":
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我们有“七联赛靴”的故事:
05:41
the giant who had these boots, where, once you put them on,
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一旦巨人穿上这样的靴子,
05:43
with every stride you could cover seven leagues, or 21 miles,
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每迈出一步就可以完成7联赛,或者21英里,
05:47
a kind of travel completely unimaginable
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对于没有这种功能靴子的人们来说,
05:49
to people without that kind of energy at their disposal.
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这是一种完全无法想象的旅程。
05:52
Stories like The Magic Porridge Pot,
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还有神奇魔术锅的故事,
05:55
where you had a pot where if you knew the magic words,
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如果你知道魔语,你可以让一个魔术锅
05:57
this pot would just make as much food as you liked,
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不断地做出你想要的食物,
06:00
without you having to do any work,
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当然你也不用动手。
06:02
provided you could remember the other magic word to stop it making porridge.
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假如你记得其他咒语,就可以停止做燕麦粥。
06:05
Otherwise you'd flood your entire town with warm porridge.
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否则,整个城市将被温燕麦粥淹没。
06:09
There is the story of "The Elves and the Shoemaker."
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还有一个"鞋匠和小矮人"的故事。
06:12
The people who make shoes go to sleep, wake up in the morning,
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鞋匠晚上没做完鞋就睡着了,当他早上睡醒的时候,
06:14
and all the shoes are magically made for them.
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却发现所有的鞋子都神奇地做好了。
06:16
It's something that was unimaginable to people then.
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对人类来说,这真是不可思议。
06:19
Now we have the seven-league boots
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现在,有Ryanair和Easyjet飞机形式的
06:22
in the form of Ryanair and Easyjet.
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七联赛靴。
06:25
We have the magic porridge pot
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也有类似神奇魔术锅(格林童话神奇锅)
06:27
in the form of Walmart and Tesco.
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的Walmart和Tesco大型超市。
06:29
And we have the elves in the form of China.
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还有就好比小矮人一样的中国。
06:32
But we don't appreciate what an astonishing
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但是我们不欢迎这些令人吃惊的
06:36
thing that has been.
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正发生的事情。
06:38
And what are the stories that we tell ourselves now,
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现在我们要讲的
06:40
as we look forward about where we're going to go.
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正是我们期盼的关于前途的问题。
06:43
And I would argue that there are four. There is the idea of business as usual,
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我认为,有4个方向。通常的商业想法是
06:46
that the future will be like the present, just more of it.
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未来仅仅是现在的延续,甚至是更好。
06:49
But as we've seen over the last year, I think that's an idea
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但回顾去年,我认为那个想法
06:51
that is increasingly coming into question.
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正在成为一个问题。
06:53
And in terms of climate change,
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从气候变化来看,
06:55
is something that is not actually feasible.
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事实上这有点行不通。
06:59
There is the idea of hitting the wall,
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还有一个碰壁的想法,
07:01
that actually somehow everything is so fragile
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所有东西都变得很脆弱,
07:04
that it might just all unravel and collapse.
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即将瓦解,全部崩溃。
07:06
This is a popular story in some places.
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在一些地方,这种观点比较普遍。
07:09
The third story is the idea that technology can solve everything,
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第三种想法是:科技可以解决所有问题。
07:12
that technology can somehow get us through this completely.
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科技可以带领我们完全客服困难。
07:16
And it's an idea that I think is very prevalent at these TED Talks,
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我认为,这种观点在TED讨论者中比较普遍,
07:20
the idea that we can invent our way out of a profound
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我们发明一种方法走出严峻的
07:23
economic and energy crisis,
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经济和能源危机,
07:25
that a move to a knowledge economy
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一种知识经济运动可以
07:27
can somehow neatly sidestep those energy constraints,
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远离能源束缚。
07:30
the idea that we'll discover some fabulous new source of energy
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有观点是我们发现一些极好的新能源,
07:33
that will mean we can sweep all concerns
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使得我们可以对
07:35
about energy security to one side,
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能源安全问题搁置一边,
07:38
the idea that we can step off neatly
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我们可以轻松地迈入到
07:40
onto a completely renewable world.
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一个全新的可再生能源的世界。
07:42
But the world isn't Second Life.
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但世界并非第二人生(Second Life虚拟世界网络)。
07:44
We can't create new land and new energy systems at the click of a mouse.
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我们不能凭简单地点击鼠标,然后创造出了新大陆和新能源体系。
07:48
And as we sit, exchanging free ideas with each other,
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当我们坐在这里,彼此自由交流思想的时候,
07:51
there are still people mining coal
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仍然有人在挖煤,
07:53
in order to power the servers, extracting the minerals
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目的是提取矿物质,为一些服务提供能量,
07:55
to make all of those things.
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使它们运转。
07:57
The breakfast that we eat as we sit down
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当我们早上坐下来,
07:59
to check our email in the morning
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查收我们邮件的时候,
08:01
is still transported at great distances,
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早餐正从很远地方运来,
08:03
usually at the expense of the local, more resilient
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这通常影响了当地的,自给自足,更具恢复性的
08:05
food systems that would have supplied that in the past,
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餐饮系统,这种餐饮系统长久以来就有,
08:08
which we've so effectively devalued and dismantled.
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而我们却有效低估,甚至让这种餐饮系统消失。
08:12
We can be astonishingly inventive and creative.
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我们可以惊人地去创造,
08:15
But we also live in a world with very real constraints and demands.
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但我们生存在受现实约束的世界中。
08:19
Energy and technology are not the same thing.
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能源和科技不是同一个事物。
08:22
What I'm involved with is the transition response.
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我潜心于转变响应的积极措施。
08:24
And this is really about looking the challenges
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这是当前关于
08:27
of peak oil and climate change square in the face,
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石油开采峰值和气候变化的巨大挑战,
08:29
and responding with a creativity and an adaptability
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以及创造性和适应性和
08:32
and an imagination that we really need.
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我们迫切所需的想象力的响应。
08:35
It's something which has spread incredibly fast.
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转变响应以惊人的速度传播。
08:38
And it is something which has several characteristics.
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它具有多种特征,
08:40
It's viral. It seems to spread under the radar very, very quickly.
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像病毒一样,好似在雷达下的快速传播。
08:45
It's open source. It's something which everybody who's involved with it
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它是开源的。每个潜心于转变发展的人,
08:49
develops and passes on as they work with it.
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在工作中传递。
08:53
It's self-organizing. There is no great central organization
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自我组织,没有庞大的中央组织
08:56
that pushes this; people just pick up an idea
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去推动;人们仅仅有了一个想法
08:58
and they run with it, and they implement it where they are.
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并且运行,贯彻执行。
09:01
It's solutions-focused. It's very much looking at what people can do
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集中解决问题。关注人们能够做什么,
09:04
where they are, to respond to this.
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设身处地的进行转变响应。
09:07
It's sensitive to place and to scale.
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就不同地方和规模都会有出入。
09:09
Transitional is completely different.
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转变也就完全不同。
09:11
Transition groups in Chile, transition groups in the U.S., transition groups here,
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智利的转变小组,美国的转变小组,这里的转变小组,
09:15
what they're doing looks very different in every place that you go to.
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你去的每个地方,大家的看法都不一样。
09:18
It learns very much from its mistakes.
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从错误中可以学习到很多。
09:20
And it feels historic. It tries to create a sense
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这转变很有历史影响。它创造一种
09:23
that this is a historic opportunity
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历史性的机会
09:25
to do something really extraordinary.
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让人们去做不同寻常的事情。
09:27
And it's a process which is really joyful.
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在此过程中的确充满乐趣。
09:29
People have a huge amount of fun doing this,
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身体力行的人们感到无限乐趣,
09:31
reconnecting with other people as they do it.
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人们也乐于联系在一起做这些转变。
09:34
One of the things that underpins it is this idea of resilience.
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支撑上述观点的是可恢复性理论。
09:37
And I think, in many ways, the idea of resilience
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我认为,在多方面,这种可恢复性理论
09:40
is a more useful concept than the idea of sustainability.
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比可持续理论更有用。
09:44
The idea of resilience comes from the study of ecology.
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可恢复性理论源于生态学,
09:46
And it's really about how systems,
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是关于系统,
09:49
settlements, withstand shock from the outside.
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安居置业,如何抵挡外部冲击。
09:52
When they encounter shock from the outside
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当他们遇到外部冲击时,
09:54
that they don't just unravel and fall to pieces.
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他们不只是分解,或者崩溃。
09:56
And I think it's a more useful concept than sustainability, as I said.
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我认为可恢复性理论比可持续理论更有用,正如我所说。
10:00
When our supermarkets have only two or three days' worth of food in them
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在任何时候,当超市只有2,3天的食物储备时,
10:04
at any one time, often sustainability tends to focus on
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通常可持续理论关注于
10:07
the energy efficiency of the freezers
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冰箱的能效,
10:09
and on the packaging that the lettuces are wrapped up in.
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和包裹生菜的包装。
10:12
Looking through the lens of resilience,
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从可恢复性理论角度看,
10:14
we really question how we've let ourselves get into a situation
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我们从根本上质疑我们竟依赖于这种
10:18
that's so vulnerable.
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如此脆弱的超市消费模式。
10:20
Resilience runs much deeper:
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可恢复性理论可以更广泛地运作:
10:22
it's about building modularity into what we do,
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它是基于我们所要转变的模块化建设,
10:24
building surge breakers into how we organize the basic things that support us.
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和我们怎样组织生产自给自足必需品的转变社区建立。
10:29
This is a photograph of the Bristol and District
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这是布里斯托尔市Bristol和湖区District的照片,
10:31
Market Gardeners Association, in 1897.
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1897年,农业菜园市场协会Market Gardeners Association成立。
10:35
This is at a time when the city of Bristol,
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当时,布里斯托尔市Bristol
10:37
which is quite close to here,
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就在这个附近,
10:39
was surrounded by commercial market gardens,
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周围是商业市场菜园,
10:41
which provided a significant amount of the food
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提供给城市所需的大量食物,
10:44
that was consumed in the town, and created a lot of employment for people, as well.
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也创造很多就业机会,等等。
10:48
There was a degree of resilience, if you like, at that time,
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这就是可恢复性的一个例子,希望你们喜欢,
10:51
which we can now only look back on with envy.
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我们现在只能带着羡慕的眼光回首那时。
10:55
So how does this transition idea work?
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因此,这个转变的想法如何运作?
10:57
So basically, you have a group of people who are excited by the idea.
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大体上有很多人为这个想法而兴奋不已。
11:00
They pick up some of the tools that we've developed.
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他们使用我们开发的一些工具,
11:03
They start to run an awareness-raising program
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他们开始一个“awareness-raising提高认识”的计划,
11:05
looking at how this might actually work in the town.
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在城镇中测试实际转变运作情况。
11:08
They show films, they give talks, and so on.
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他们观看电影,开展讨论等等。
11:10
It's a process which is playful and creative
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这个转变过程有趣而富有创造力,
11:13
and informative.
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并增长见识。
11:15
Then they start to form working groups, looking at different aspects of this,
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然后他们开始组建工作组,分别负责不同的方面,
11:18
and then from that, there emerge a whole lot of projects
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因此基于此,形成了很多转变项目,
11:21
which then the transition project itself
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然后转变项目本身
11:23
starts to support and enable.
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开始运行和完善。
11:28
So it started out with some work I was involved in in Ireland,
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在爱尔兰我开始了相关的工作,
11:30
where I was teaching, and has since spread.
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爱尔兰是我教学的地方,也是工作开展的地方。
11:32
There are now over 200 formal transition projects.
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目前已经有超过200个正式的转变项目。
11:35
And there are thousands of others who are at what we call the mulling stage.
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在我们所谓的酝酿阶段,有过千的工作人员。
11:39
They are mulling whether they're going to take it further.
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他们正在酝酿方案将来的可行性。
11:41
And actually a lot of them are doing huge amounts of stuff.
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实际上大部分人做了大量的的工作。
11:44
But what do they actually do? You know, it's a kind of nice idea,
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但他们实际上做什么呢?大家知道,这是一个新颖的想法,
11:46
but what do they actually do on the ground?
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但他们付诸的实际情况如何?
11:48
Well, I think it's really important to make the point that actually
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因此,我认为重申这一点非常重要,
11:52
you know, this isn't something which is going to do everything on its own.
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实际上大家知道,转变不是一个自身就能完成所有工作。
11:55
We need international legislation from Copenhagen and so on.
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我们需要哥本哈根大会的国际立法等等。
11:59
We need national responses. We need local government responses.
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我们需要得到国内的响应,本地政府的响应。
12:02
But all of those things are going to be much easier
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但所有事情都会变得非常简单,
12:05
if we have communities that are vibrant and coming up with ideas
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如果我们有活跃的社区以及最新的想法交流,
12:08
and leading from the front, making unelectable policies electable,
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然后领导转变响应,使得相关政策通过候选立法,
12:11
over the next 5 to 10 years.
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在接下来的5到10年。
12:13
Some of the things that emerge from it are local food projects,
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自然而然的就有一些当地的食物项目,
12:16
like community-supported agriculture schemes,
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例如社区团体支持的农业计划,
12:18
urban food production, creating local food directories, and so on.
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城乡食物计划,当地食物目录等等。
12:22
A lot of places now are starting to set up their own energy companies,
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目前很多地方都开始建立自己的能源工厂,
12:25
community-owned energy companies,
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社区自建能源工厂,
12:27
where the community can invest money into itself,
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由社区独立投资,
12:29
to start putting in place
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开始建立
12:31
the kind of renewable energy infrastructure that we need.
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可再生能源基础设施,这正是我们需要的。
12:33
A lot of places are working with their local schools.
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在许多地方,学校也参与进来。
12:36
Newent in the Forest of Dean: big polytunnel they built for the school;
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位于迪恩森林国家公园附近的Newent市:人们在学校建起大型保温棚,
12:38
the kids are learning how to grow food.
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孩子们学习如何种植食物。
12:40
Promoting recycling, things like garden-share,
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提倡再循环利用,例如菜园共享,
12:43
that matches up people who don't have a garden
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使得没有菜园的人们
12:45
who would like to grow food, with people who have gardens they aren't using anymore.
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可以在被人闲置的菜园地方,种植食物。
12:48
Planting productive trees throughout urban spaces.
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在广阔的城乡种植经济树木。
12:51
And also starting to play around with the idea of
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同时开始推广
12:53
alternative currencies.
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可替换的流通货币的想法。
12:55
This is Lewes in Sussex,
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这是在苏塞克斯Sussex的刘易斯市Lewes
12:57
who have recently launched the Lewes Pound,
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最近投放上市的刘易斯英镑,
13:00
a currency that you can only spend within the town,
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它只能在当地流通,
13:02
as a way of starting to cycle money within the local economy.
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成为了当地循环经济的开始。
13:05
You take it anywhere else, it's not worth anything.
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而你在其他地方用这种货币,它就一文不值了。
13:07
But actually within the town you start to create these economic
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但实际上这种循环经济模式在当地
13:10
cycles much more effectively.
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非常有效。
13:13
Another thing that they do is what we call an energy descent plan,
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他们做的另一件事,我们称之为节约能源计划,
13:15
which is basically to develop a plan B for the town.
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是为城镇而开发的另一个B计划。
13:18
Most of our local authorities, when they sit down to plan
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但我们大部分当地政府开始着手
13:21
for the next five, 10, 15, 20 years of a community,
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未来5年,10年,15年到20年计划时,
13:24
still start by assuming that there will be more energy,
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还都理所当然地认为会有更多石油能源,
13:27
more cars, more housing,
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更多汽车,更多房屋,
13:29
more jobs, more growth, and so on.
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更多工作,更多增长等等。
13:31
What does it look like if that's not the case? And how can we embrace that
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如果情况不是那样,会怎样呢?我们又该如何接受
13:34
and actually come up with something that was actually more likely
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现实中想到的事情真的很有可能
13:36
to sustain everybody?
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来养活大家?
13:38
As a friend of mine says, "Life is a series of things you're not quite ready for."
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我的一个朋友说:生活是由一系列你完全没有准备好的事情组成的。
13:43
And that's certainly been my experience with transition.
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那也正是我亲身经历的转变,
13:45
From three years ago, it just being an idea,
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在3年前,它仅仅是一个想法,
13:47
this has become something that has virally swept around the world.
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这转变已经快速风靡世界。
13:51
We're getting a lot of interest from government. Ed Miliband,
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这也吸引了政府议员,这个国家(英国)能源部长埃德米利班德Ed Miliband的兴趣,
13:53
the energy minister of this country, was invited to come to our recent conference
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我们邀请他参加我们最近的会议
13:57
as a keynote listener.
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作为一个演讲听众。
13:59
Which he did --
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14:01
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
14:02
(Applause) --
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(掌声)
14:05
and has since become a great advocate of the whole idea.
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并从此成为整个转变想法的极力提倡者。
14:09
There are now two local authorities in this country
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这个国家目前有两个当地政府
14:12
who have declared themselves transitional local authorities,
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声明它们要转变为不依赖石油的当地政府,
14:14
Leicestershire and Somerset. And in Stroud,
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莱斯特郡Leicestershiere 和萨默塞特郡Somerset。在斯特劳德市Stroud
14:16
the transition group there, in effect, wrote the local government's food plan.
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转变组真的为当地政府起草了食物计划。
14:21
And the head of the council said,
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委员会主席说,
14:23
"If we didn't have Transition Stroud, we would have to invent
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“如果我们没有转变斯特劳德市Transition Stround,我们也得首次创新
14:25
all of that community infrastructure for the first time."
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所有社区的基础设施。”
14:29
As we see the spread of it, we see national hubs emerging.
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正如我们看到的转变响应的蔓延,国家的转变提上议程。
14:32
In Scotland, the Scottish government's climate change fund
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在苏格兰Scotland,Scottish苏格兰政府气候变化基金
14:35
has funded Transition Scotland
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已投资转变苏格兰Transition Scotland
14:37
as a national organization supporting the spread of this.
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作为国家资助项目发展。
14:40
And we see it all over the place as well now.
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正如大家所见,目前所有地方都开展了。
14:43
But the key to transition is thinking not that we have to change everything now,
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不过,转变的关键是我们现在没有改变所有,
14:46
but that things are already inevitably changing,
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但很多已经不可避免的改变了,
14:49
and what we need to do is to work creatively with that,
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我们所做的就是创造性的开展工作,
14:52
based on asking the right questions.
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提出正确的问题。
14:55
I think I'd like to just return at the end
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我想我应该返回到
14:57
to the idea of stories.
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这个想法故事的结尾。
14:59
Because I think stories are vital here.
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因为我认为这些故事比较生动和重要。
15:01
And actually the stories that we tell ourselves,
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我们自己谈论着实际中的故事,
15:03
we have a huge dearth of stories about how to move forward creatively from here.
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除这里分享的,我们还缺乏大量故事来指导我们创新的转变。
15:08
And one of the key things that transition does
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关键的一点是
15:10
is to pull those stories out of what people are doing.
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人们把他们做的这种转变创新的故事用来分享。
15:12
Stories about the community that's produced
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例如,社区可以自行生产
15:15
its own 21 pound note, for example,
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21英镑纸币,
15:18
the school that's turned its car park into a food garden,
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把学校的汽车停车场转变为一个食物菜园地,
15:21
the community that's founded its own energy company.
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建立自己能源工厂的社区等等的故事。
15:24
And for me, one of the great stories recently
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对我来说,最近一个精彩的故事
15:26
was the Obamas digging up the south lawn of the White House
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是奥巴马夫妇在白宫南草坪
15:29
to create a vegetable garden. Because the last time that was done,
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开辟蔬菜园地。因为上次这么做还要
15:31
when Eleanor Roosevelt did it,
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提起埃莉诺罗斯福Eleanor Roosevelt,
15:33
it led to the creation of 20 million vegetable gardens across the United States.
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它引领了全美2千万蔬菜菜园的兴建。
15:38
So the question I'd like to leave you with, really,
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所以我留给你们的问题是,
15:40
is -- for all aspects of the things that your community needs
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为了你们社区繁荣,考虑所需的方方面面
15:44
in order to thrive,
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的事情,
15:46
how can it be done in such a way
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如何实施这种转变响应来
15:48
that drastically reduces its carbon emissions,
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大幅降低二氧化碳排放,
15:51
while also building resilience?
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又同时建立可恢复性的繁荣?
15:53
Personally, I feel enormously grateful
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从我个人而言,我非常的感谢
15:55
to have lived through the age of cheap oil.
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我所经历过的廉价石油年代。
15:58
I've been astonishingly lucky, we've been astonishingly lucky.
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我曾非常幸运,我们曾非常幸运。
16:02
But let us honor what it has bought us,
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让我们为石油所提供给我们的一切感到荣幸,
16:04
and move forward from this point.
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但从现在起要转变改进。
16:06
Because if we cling to it, and continue to assume
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因为如果我们依然依靠石油,继续这样的消耗
16:08
that it can underpin our choices,
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支撑着我们的选择权,
16:11
the future that it presents to us is one which is really unmanageable.
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我们所要面对的未来会越加难以驾驭。
16:14
And by loving and leaving all that oil has done for us,
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由热爱石油,到远离石油
16:17
and that the Oil Age has done for us,
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和石油年代供给给我们的一切,
16:19
we are able to then begin the creation
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我们将开创
16:21
of a world which is more resilient,
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一个更具有可恢复性的,
16:24
more nourishing,
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更有活力的世界,
16:26
and in which, we find ourselves fitter, more skilled
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我们将发现人与人彼此间更加健康,更加优秀,
16:29
and more connected to each other.
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和联系的更加紧密。
16:31
Thank you very much.
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非常感谢。
16:33
(Applause)
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(掌声)
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