Rob Hopkins: Transition to a world without oil

175,700 views ・ 2009-11-24

TED


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譯者: Geoff Chen 審譯者: Coco Shen
00:18
As a culture, we tell ourselves lots of stories
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人類文化裡,有許多
00:21
about the future,
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關於未來的故事
00:23
and where we might move forward from this point.
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這些故事激勵我們前進
00:25
Some of those stories are that
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在某些故事中
00:27
somebody is just going to sort everything out for us.
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有人努力採取對策
00:30
Other stories are that everything is on the verge of unraveling.
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在另一些故事中,所有事物都瀕臨瓦解
00:34
But I want to tell you a different story here today.
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但我今天要帶來一個不同的故事
00:36
Like all stories, it has a beginning.
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如同所有故事,它也有起始
00:39
My work, for a long time, has been involved in education,
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長期以來,我涉入教育事業甚深
00:42
in teaching people practical skills
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我教人們
00:44
for sustainability,
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永續性的實用技能
00:46
teaching people how to take responsibility
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教大家如何承擔責任
00:48
for growing some of their own food,
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比如,自己耕種、
00:50
how to build buildings using local materials,
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用在地的材料蓋房子、
00:52
how to generate their own energy, and so on.
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使用自發的電力......等等
00:55
I lived in Ireland, built the first straw-bale houses in Ireland,
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我住在愛爾蘭,在那裡造了第一座稻草屋,
00:59
and some cob buildings and all this kind of thing.
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和一些圓形建築與其他類似的事
01:02
But all my work for many years was focused
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很多年來,在我的工作中,我都關注於
01:05
around the idea that sustainability
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一個想法: 永續性
01:07
means basically looking at
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它意謂著: 著眼於
01:09
the globalized economic growth model,
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全球經濟成長模型、
01:12
and moderating what comes in at one end,
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監控其所投入的,
01:14
and moderating the outputs at the other end.
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也調節著另一端產出
01:17
And then I came into contact with a way of looking at things
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接著,我開始觀察
01:20
which actually changed that profoundly.
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那些根深蒂固的巨大轉變
01:22
And in order to introduce you to that,
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為了向大家清楚介紹
01:24
I've got something here that I'm going to unveil,
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在這裏,我打算向各位展示
01:26
which is one of the great marvels of the modern age.
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一個現代的偉大奇蹟
01:29
And it's something so astounding and so astonishing
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它是如此驚天動地
01:31
that I think maybe as I remove this cloth
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所以我不如先揭開它的真面目
01:34
a suitable gasp of amazement might be appropriate.
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讓大家喘口氣,再來述說比較合適
01:37
If you could help me with that it would be fantastic.
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如果你們能幫我一下,那就再好不過了
01:44
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
01:45
This is a liter of oil.
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這是一公升的石油
01:48
This bottle of oil,
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這瓶油
01:51
distilled over a hundred million years of geological time,
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是從上億年前的地質中所提煉而出
01:54
ancient sunlight,
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經過遠古的陽光照射
01:56
contains the energy equivalent of about five weeks
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它飽含的能量相當於5星期的
01:58
hard human manual labor --
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人類體力勞動——
02:01
equivalent to about 35 strong people
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相當於三十五個壯漢
02:05
coming round and working for you.
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為您服務
02:08
We can turn it into a dazzling array of materials,
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我們可以把它轉變為各式各樣令人炫目的材料:
02:12
medicine, modern clothing,
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藥物、現代服飾、
02:14
laptops, a whole range of different things.
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筆記型電腦、還有其他不同的材料等等
02:18
It gives us an energy return that's unimaginable, historically.
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它給予我們歷史上難以想像的巨大能源收益:
02:23
We've based the design of our settlements,
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我們賴以為生的生計、
02:25
our business models, our transport plans,
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經濟學模型、運輸計畫、
02:27
even the idea of economic growth, some would argue,
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甚至經濟成長的觀點,都以它為基礎而設計,有些人
02:30
on the assumption that we will have this in perpetuity.
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認定我們可以永久地使用石油
02:34
Yet, when we take a step back,
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然而,倘若我們退一步
02:37
and look over the span of history,
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審視整個人類的歷史
02:39
at what we might call the petroleum interval,
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我們所謂的石油時代
02:42
it's a short period in history
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從我們發現這個無與倫比的材料,
02:44
where we've discovered this extraordinary material,
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到完全依賴石油之間的這個短暫時期
02:47
and then based a whole way of life around it.
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不過是歷史中的一瞬罷了
02:50
But as we straddle the top of this energy mountain, at this stage,
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但,當我們處在現階段能源的頂峰時,
02:54
we move from a time where our economic success,
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我們已脫離了以往那個時期:
02:57
our sense of individual prowess and well-being
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經濟效益、個人能力和福利
03:00
is directly linked to how much of this we consume,
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必須直接取決於我們對能源的消耗;
03:04
to a time when actually our degree of oil dependency
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而現在,我們來到了一個高度依賴石油的時期
03:07
is our degree of vulnerability.
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這正是我們的弱點
03:09
And it's increasingly clear that we
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有一個日益明白的道理:
03:11
aren't going to be able to rely on the fact that
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我們將無法再以
03:13
we're going to have this at our disposal forever.
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這樣的方式處置能源了
03:16
For every four barrels of oil that we consume,
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我們每消耗4桶石油,
03:18
we only discover one.
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卻只能發現1桶。
03:20
And that gap continues to widen.
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這個鴻溝持續不斷地擴大
03:22
There is also the fact that the amount of energy
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同時,我們從石油中所發掘出的能源
03:24
that we get back from the oil that we discover is falling.
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正在減少
03:27
In the 1930s we got 100 units of energy back
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1930年代,我們每個人可以從提煉石油中
03:30
for every one that we put in to extract it.
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得到100單位的能源
03:33
Completely unprecedented, historically.
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這個數據在歷史上前所未見
03:35
Already that's fallen to about 11.
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現在,能源利用值已跌到11
03:37
And that's why, now,
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這就是為什麼,現在
03:39
the new breakthroughs, the new frontiers
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石油萃取的新技術
03:41
in terms of oil extraction are scrambling about in Alberta,
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爭奪得如此激烈的原因,不管是在Alberta
03:44
or at the bottom of the oceans.
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還是在海底
03:46
There are 98 oil-producing nations in the world.
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世界上有98個產油國
03:49
But of those, 65 have already passed their peak.
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但,其中65個已經超過了開採的高峰
03:52
The moment when the world on average passes this peak,
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世界平均開採早晚都會超過這個峰值
03:55
people wonder when that's going to happen.
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人們只想知道什麼時候發生
03:57
And there is an emerging case
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一個新近的例子是
03:58
that maybe that was what happened last July
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大約在去年7月所發生的
04:00
when the oil prices were so high.
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油價上漲
04:02
But are we to assume that the same brilliance
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然而,人類的智慧、
04:04
and creativity and adaptability
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創造力、與適應力
04:06
that got us up to the top of that energy mountain in the first place
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曾使我們第一次達到了能源高峰,
04:09
is somehow mysteriously going to evaporate
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當我們必須設計一個新的解決方案,讓自己越過低谷時
04:12
when we have to design a creative way back down the other side?
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這種智慧、創造力、和適應力為何莫名其妙地神秘蒸發了呢?
04:16
No. But the thinking that we have to come up with
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不,這想法並不正確。
04:19
has to be based on a realistic assessment
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這是基於一個現實的假設,
04:22
of where we are.
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我們已經達到了開採巔峰
04:24
There is also the issue of climate change,
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面對氣候變化時,
04:26
is the other thing that underpins this transition approach.
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也同樣支持了這種轉變方法。
04:28
But the thing that I notice, as I talk to climate scientists,
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當我和氣候學家討論時,我注意到
04:31
is the increasingly terrified look they have in their eyes,
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他們眼裏與日俱增的恐懼,
04:34
as the data that's coming in,
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它是伴隨著近日比 IPCC(聯合國政府間氣候變化專門委員會)
04:36
which is far ahead of what the IPCC are talking about.
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更有說服力更新資料而出現的
04:40
So the IPCC said
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IPCC 的提到:
04:42
that we might see significant breakup
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我們可以預見2100年
04:44
of the arctic ice in 2100, in their worst case scenario.
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在最壞的情況下,北極冰川嚴重斷裂。
04:47
Actually, if current trends continue,
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事實上,如果目前的趨勢持續惡化,
04:50
it could all be gone in five or 10 years' time.
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它將在五年或十年內發生。
04:52
If just three percent of the carbon locked up in the arctic permafrost
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如果北極永凍土中所包含的 3% 的二氧化碳
04:56
is released as the world warms,
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在全球暖化中釋放,
04:58
it would offset all the savings that we need to make,
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它將抵消我們為減少二氧化碳所做的一切努力,
05:00
in carbon, over the next 40 years to avoid runaway climate change.
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在未來的四十年間,將難以防範無常的氣候變化
05:03
We have no choice other than deep and urgent decarbonization.
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除了更進一步實施緊急二氧化碳減排,我們沒有其他選擇
05:08
But I'm always very interested to think about
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但我一直好奇地想著
05:10
what might the stories be
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也許故事是這樣的:
05:12
that the generations further down the slope from us
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下幾個世代的人們
05:15
are going to tell about us.
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將會告訴我們
05:17
"The generation that lived at the top of the mountain,
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「我們這一世代,生活在山頂,
05:20
that partied so hard, and so abused its inheritance."
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忍受艱難,亦所剩無幾。」
05:25
And one of the ways I like to do that
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我喜歡的方法之一是
05:27
is to look back at the stories people used to tell
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回首往事時,人們通常這麼說:
05:29
before we had cheap oil, before we had fossil fuels,
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在我們擁有便宜的汽油和化石燃料之前,
05:32
and people relied on their own muscle, animal muscle energy,
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人們依賴於他們的肌肉、動物肌肉中的能量、
05:35
or a little bit of wind, little bit of water energy.
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或者一些風能水力
05:38
We had stories like "The Seven-League Boots":
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我們有像「七大靴子」的童話故事:
05:41
the giant who had these boots, where, once you put them on,
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一旦巨人穿上這樣的靴子,
05:43
with every stride you could cover seven leagues, or 21 miles,
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每邁出一步,可以完 21 英里,
05:47
a kind of travel completely unimaginable
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對於沒有這種功能靴子的人們來說,
05:49
to people without that kind of energy at their disposal.
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這是一種完全無法想像的旅程
05:52
Stories like The Magic Porridge Pot,
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還有像「神奇魔術鍋」的故事,
05:55
where you had a pot where if you knew the magic words,
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如果你知道術語,你可以讓一個魔術鍋
05:57
this pot would just make as much food as you liked,
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不斷地做出你想要的食物,
06:00
without you having to do any work,
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當然你什麽也無需做
06:02
provided you could remember the other magic word to stop it making porridge.
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假如你記得其他術語,就可以停止做燕麥粥
06:05
Otherwise you'd flood your entire town with warm porridge.
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否則,整個城市將被溫燕麥粥淹沒
06:09
There is the story of "The Elves and the Shoemaker."
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還有一個「鞋匠和小矮人」的故事
06:12
The people who make shoes go to sleep, wake up in the morning,
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鞋匠晚上沒做完鞋就睡著了,當他早上睡醒的時候,
06:14
and all the shoes are magically made for them.
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卻發現所有的鞋子都神奇地做好了
06:16
It's something that was unimaginable to people then.
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對人類來說,這真是不可思議
06:19
Now we have the seven-league boots
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現在,我們有 Ryanair 和 Easyjet 飛機形式的
06:22
in the form of Ryanair and Easyjet.
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七大靴子
06:25
We have the magic porridge pot
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也有類似神奇魔術鍋的
06:27
in the form of Walmart and Tesco.
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Walmart 和 Tesco 等大型超市
06:29
And we have the elves in the form of China.
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還有好比小矮人一樣的中國
06:32
But we don't appreciate what an astonishing
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但是我們並不特別感謝
06:36
thing that has been.
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這些令人驚愕的正發生的事情
06:38
And what are the stories that we tell ourselves now,
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現在我們要講的
06:40
as we look forward about where we're going to go.
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是我們所期盼的的關於前途的問題
06:43
And I would argue that there are four. There is the idea of business as usual,
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我認為有四個方向,通常的商業想法是
06:46
that the future will be like the present, just more of it.
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未來僅只是現在的延續,甚至是更好
06:49
But as we've seen over the last year, I think that's an idea
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然而回顧去年,我認為那個想法
06:51
that is increasingly coming into question.
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已逐漸成為問題
06:53
And in terms of climate change,
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從氣候變遷上看來,
06:55
is something that is not actually feasible.
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事實上,這想法行不通
06:59
There is the idea of hitting the wall,
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還有一個碰壁的想法是
07:01
that actually somehow everything is so fragile
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所有東西都變得很脆弱,
07:04
that it might just all unravel and collapse.
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即將瓦解,全部崩潰
07:06
This is a popular story in some places.
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在某些地方,這是一種流行的故事
07:09
The third story is the idea that technology can solve everything,
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第三種想法是: 科技可以解決所有問題
07:12
that technology can somehow get us through this completely.
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科技可以帶領我們完全客服困難
07:16
And it's an idea that I think is very prevalent at these TED Talks,
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我認為,這種觀點在 TED 討論者當中非常普遍,
07:20
the idea that we can invent our way out of a profound
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我們發明一種方法,走出嚴峻的
07:23
economic and energy crisis,
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經濟與能源危機,
07:25
that a move to a knowledge economy
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這種知識經濟的運動可以
07:27
can somehow neatly sidestep those energy constraints,
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遠離能源的桎梏與瓶頸,
07:30
the idea that we'll discover some fabulous new source of energy
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發現一些極好的新能源,
07:33
that will mean we can sweep all concerns
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使我們可以把
07:35
about energy security to one side,
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能源安全的問題擱置一邊,
07:38
the idea that we can step off neatly
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於是輕鬆地邁入
07:40
onto a completely renewable world.
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一個全新的可再生能源世界
07:42
But the world isn't Second Life.
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然而,世界並非「第二人生」(遊戲: Second Life)
07:44
We can't create new land and new energy systems at the click of a mouse.
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我們不能單單地憑藉點擊滑鼠,創造出新大陸和新的能源體系
07:48
And as we sit, exchanging free ideas with each other,
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當我們坐在這裏,彼此自由交換點子的時候,
07:51
there are still people mining coal
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仍然有人在挖煤,
07:53
in order to power the servers, extracting the minerals
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爲了提供能量,
07:55
to make all of those things.
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使之運轉
07:57
The breakfast that we eat as we sit down
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當我們早上坐下來
07:59
to check our email in the morning
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查閱郵件的時候,
08:01
is still transported at great distances,
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早餐仍然是從從很遠的地方運來,
08:03
usually at the expense of the local, more resilient
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通常,取自當地、更具恢復性的食物系統
08:05
food systems that would have supplied that in the past,
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長久以來便存在
08:08
which we've so effectively devalued and dismantled.
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我們卻大大地低估它,甚至讓它們消失
08:12
We can be astonishingly inventive and creative.
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我們極具創意與發明性
08:15
But we also live in a world with very real constraints and demands.
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然而在現實約束的世界中
08:19
Energy and technology are not the same thing.
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能源和科技不是同一件事
08:22
What I'm involved with is the transition response.
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於是,我參與了回應轉變的積極措施。
08:24
And this is really about looking the challenges
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這是當前關於
08:27
of peak oil and climate change square in the face,
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石油開採高峰和氣候變化的巨大挑戰,
08:29
and responding with a creativity and an adaptability
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以創造性、適應性、
08:32
and an imagination that we really need.
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和我們急需的想像力來回應
08:35
It's something which has spread incredibly fast.
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這個轉變以驚人的速度散播
08:38
And it is something which has several characteristics.
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它有多種特徵,
08:40
It's viral. It seems to spread under the radar very, very quickly.
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像病毒一樣,猶如在雷達偵測下飛快傳播著
08:45
It's open source. It's something which everybody who's involved with it
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它是開放的,每個從事這個工作的人
08:49
develops and passes on as they work with it.
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開發、並且把知識分享給他人
08:53
It's self-organizing. There is no great central organization
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自我組織,沒有龐大的中央機構
08:56
that pushes this; people just pick up an idea
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來推動,人們一有想法
08:58
and they run with it, and they implement it where they are.
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就實地運作,貫徹執行
09:01
It's solutions-focused. It's very much looking at what people can do
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它是問題解決取向的,在很大的程度上,端看人們
09:04
where they are, to respond to this.
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如何設身處地行事,進行回應
09:07
It's sensitive to place and to scale.
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根據不同的地方、規模,會不同的因應措施
09:09
Transitional is completely different.
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轉變方式也完全不同
09:11
Transition groups in Chile, transition groups in the U.S., transition groups here,
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無論是智利的轉變小組、美國的轉變小組,還是這裏的轉變小組,
09:15
what they're doing looks very different in every place that you go to.
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每個地方看法都不一樣
09:18
It learns very much from its mistakes.
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從錯誤中,你可以學習到很多
09:20
And it feels historic. It tries to create a sense
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這個轉變極具歷史意義。它創造了一種
09:23
that this is a historic opportunity
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歷史機會
09:25
to do something really extraordinary.
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讓人們從事非凡的事業
09:27
And it's a process which is really joyful.
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在此過程中,的確充滿樂趣
09:29
People have a huge amount of fun doing this,
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在做這件事時,人們感到充滿喜悅
09:31
reconnecting with other people as they do it.
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許多人也彼此串聯
09:34
One of the things that underpins it is this idea of resilience.
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支持上述的其中一個觀點是所謂的彈性思維
09:37
And I think, in many ways, the idea of resilience
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我認為,在許多方面,這種彈性思維
09:40
is a more useful concept than the idea of sustainability.
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比永續續理論更有效
09:44
The idea of resilience comes from the study of ecology.
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彈性思維源自於生態學
09:46
And it's really about how systems,
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它與系統、
09:49
settlements, withstand shock from the outside.
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定居、與如何抵擋外部衝擊等息息相關
09:52
When they encounter shock from the outside
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當它們遇到外部衝擊時,
09:54
that they don't just unravel and fall to pieces.
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它們不只分解或崩潰而已
09:56
And I think it's a more useful concept than sustainability, as I said.
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我認為彈性思維比永續的觀點更有用,正如我所說的
10:00
When our supermarkets have only two or three days' worth of food in them
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在任何時候,當超市只有2、3天的食物存貨時,
10:04
at any one time, often sustainability tends to focus on
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通常永續理論關注於
10:07
the energy efficiency of the freezers
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冰箱的功效、
10:09
and on the packaging that the lettuces are wrapped up in.
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和生菜的包裝
10:12
Looking through the lens of resilience,
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從彈性思維的角度來看,
10:14
we really question how we've let ourselves get into a situation
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我們會質疑 自己竟依賴於這種
10:18
that's so vulnerable.
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如此脆弱的超市消費模式
10:20
Resilience runs much deeper:
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彈性可以更廣泛地運作:
10:22
it's about building modularity into what we do,
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它從我們所做的事中建立模型
10:24
building surge breakers into how we organize the basic things that support us.
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我們應該如何自行組織、建立生產自給自足必需品的社區
10:29
This is a photograph of the Bristol and District
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這是布里斯托 (Bristol) 和湖區的照片,
10:31
Market Gardeners Association, in 1897.
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1897 年,市場園丁協會(Market Gardeners Association)成立了
10:35
This is at a time when the city of Bristol,
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當時,布里斯托市
10:37
which is quite close to here,
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就在這附近,
10:39
was surrounded by commercial market gardens,
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四周圍繞著商業市場菜園,
10:41
which provided a significant amount of the food
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提供城市所需的大量食物,
10:44
that was consumed in the town, and created a lot of employment for people, as well.
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也創造了許多就業機會
10:48
There was a degree of resilience, if you like, at that time,
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這就是彈性思維的一個例子,
10:51
which we can now only look back on with envy.
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現在我們只能帶著欽羨的眼光 回首過去
10:55
So how does this transition idea work?
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因此,轉變的想法是如何運作的?
10:57
So basically, you have a group of people who are excited by the idea.
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大體上,有很多人為這個想法感到興奮不已
11:00
They pick up some of the tools that we've developed.
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他們使用我們已開發的一些工具,
11:03
They start to run an awareness-raising program
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他們發起宣導活動,
11:05
looking at how this might actually work in the town.
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在城鎮中,測試實際運作情況
11:08
They show films, they give talks, and so on.
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他們播放電影、開啟討論等等
11:10
It's a process which is playful and creative
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過程有趣而且極具創意
11:13
and informative.
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同時也具有教育意義
11:15
Then they start to form working groups, looking at different aspects of this,
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接著他們開始籌建工作小組,分別負責不同的方面,
11:18
and then from that, there emerge a whole lot of projects
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從這個活動開始,延伸出許多計劃
11:21
which then the transition project itself
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使得轉變計劃本身
11:23
starts to support and enable.
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開始獲得支持與運作
11:28
So it started out with some work I was involved in in Ireland,
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在愛爾蘭我開始了相關的工作,
11:30
where I was teaching, and has since spread.
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愛爾蘭是我教學的地方,也是工作展開的地方
11:32
There are now over 200 formal transition projects.
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目前已有超過200項正式的轉變專案
11:35
And there are thousands of others who are at what we call the mulling stage.
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在我們的醞釀階段,曾有上千的工作人員
11:39
They are mulling whether they're going to take it further.
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他們醞釀這些方案的未來可行性
11:41
And actually a lot of them are doing huge amounts of stuff.
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實際上,他們許多人做了大量的工作
11:44
But what do they actually do? You know, it's a kind of nice idea,
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但實際上到底做了什麼呢?大家知道,這是一個新穎的想法,
11:46
but what do they actually do on the ground?
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實際的情況如何?
11:48
Well, I think it's really important to make the point that actually
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嗯,我認為有一點非常重要,
11:52
you know, this isn't something which is going to do everything on its own.
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大家都知道,轉變不是一蹴可幾的
11:55
We need international legislation from Copenhagen and so on.
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我們需要哥本哈根大會的立法...
11:59
We need national responses. We need local government responses.
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我們需要國內的回應、我們需要地方政府的回應
12:02
But all of those things are going to be much easier
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然而所有事情都會變得非常簡單
12:05
if we have communities that are vibrant and coming up with ideas
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只要我們有活躍的社區與最新的想法,
12:08
and leading from the front, making unelectable policies electable,
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加上引領群眾,使相關政策 在接下來的五到十年
12:11
over the next 5 to 10 years.
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通過立法
12:13
Some of the things that emerge from it are local food projects,
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許多計劃會相繼出現,比如本地食物計劃、
12:16
like community-supported agriculture schemes,
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比如社區支持的農業計畫、
12:18
urban food production, creating local food directories, and so on.
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都市食物計畫、在地飲食目錄等等
12:22
A lot of places now are starting to set up their own energy companies,
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目前,許多地方已自行建立發電廠、
12:25
community-owned energy companies,
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社區自建電廠
12:27
where the community can invest money into itself,
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它們由社區獨立投資
12:29
to start putting in place
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開始建立
12:31
the kind of renewable energy infrastructure that we need.
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可再生能源基礎設施,這正是我們所需要的
12:33
A lot of places are working with their local schools.
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在許多地方,學校也參與進來
12:36
Newent in the Forest of Dean: big polytunnel they built for the school;
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迪恩森林國家公園附近的 Newent 市: 人們在學校建起大型的結構聚乙烯管道(polytunnel),
12:38
the kids are learning how to grow food.
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孩子在那學習如何種植食物
12:40
Promoting recycling, things like garden-share,
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提倡循環再利用,例如菜園共用,
12:43
that matches up people who don't have a garden
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使沒有菜園的人們
12:45
who would like to grow food, with people who have gardens they aren't using anymore.
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可以在閒置的地方種植食物
12:48
Planting productive trees throughout urban spaces.
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在廣闊的都市空間種植經濟作物
12:51
And also starting to play around with the idea of
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同時,也開始推廣
12:53
alternative currencies.
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另類流通貨幣的概念
12:55
This is Lewes in Sussex,
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這是在薩塞克斯的路易斯市(Lewes)
12:57
who have recently launched the Lewes Pound,
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當地近來推行了路易斯英鎊,
13:00
a currency that you can only spend within the town,
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這是一種只能在當地流通的貨幣
13:02
as a way of starting to cycle money within the local economy.
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作為地區經濟的流動貨幣之用
13:05
You take it anywhere else, it's not worth anything.
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在其他地方,此貨幣就一文不值了
13:07
But actually within the town you start to create these economic
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但實際上,在當地,這種經濟循環模式
13:10
cycles much more effectively.
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是更加有效率的
13:13
Another thing that they do is what we call an energy descent plan,
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他們做的另一件事,稱為節約能源計畫,
13:15
which is basically to develop a plan B for the town.
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這是一個為城鎮開發的備用計畫
13:18
Most of our local authorities, when they sit down to plan
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當大部分的地方政府在為未來五年、十年、十五年、到二十年
13:21
for the next five, 10, 15, 20 years of a community,
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著手進行計劃時,
13:24
still start by assuming that there will be more energy,
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仍然理所當然地認為 未來將有更多的石化能源、
13:27
more cars, more housing,
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更多汽車、更多房屋、
13:29
more jobs, more growth, and so on.
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更多工作、以及更多成長等等
13:31
What does it look like if that's not the case? And how can we embrace that
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倘若情況不是那樣呢?我們要如何才能
13:34
and actually come up with something that was actually more likely
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採納新的解決辦法
13:36
to sustain everybody?
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來永續經營社區?
13:38
As a friend of mine says, "Life is a series of things you're not quite ready for."
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就如我的一個朋友說:「生活是由一連串毫無準備的事所組成的。」
13:43
And that's certainly been my experience with transition.
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而那也是我親身經歷的轉變,
13:45
From three years ago, it just being an idea,
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三年前,它僅僅只是一個想法,
13:47
this has become something that has virally swept around the world.
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如今,這一轉變已快速散播到世界各地
13:51
We're getting a lot of interest from government. Ed Miliband,
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我們引起政府的興趣,Ed Miliband (英國能源部長)
13:53
the energy minister of this country, was invited to come to our recent conference
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最近受邀參加我們的會議
13:57
as a keynote listener.
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作為一個演講的聽眾
13:59
Which he did --
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他的確—
14:01
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
14:02
(Applause) --
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(掌聲)
14:05
and has since become a great advocate of the whole idea.
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成為整個轉變想法的極力倡議者
14:09
There are now two local authorities in this country
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目前,在這個國家 有兩個地方政府
14:12
who have declared themselves transitional local authorities,
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宣佈它們要轉變為不依賴石油的政府,
14:14
Leicestershire and Somerset. And in Stroud,
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萊斯特郡 (Leicestershiere) 和薩默塞特郡 (Somerset)。另外,在斯特勞德市 (Stroud),
14:16
the transition group there, in effect, wrote the local government's food plan.
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轉變小組真的為當地政府起草了食物計畫
14:21
And the head of the council said,
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委員會主席說:
14:23
"If we didn't have Transition Stroud, we would have to invent
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「如果我們沒有徹底『轉變斯特勞德市』(Transition Stroud),我們至少也得率先發明
14:25
all of that community infrastructure for the first time."
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所有社區的基礎設施。」
14:29
As we see the spread of it, we see national hubs emerging.
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正如計劃的大量散播,我們看到了國家把轉變計劃交付議會議程
14:32
In Scotland, the Scottish government's climate change fund
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在蘇格蘭,蘇格蘭政府氣候變遷基金
14:35
has funded Transition Scotland
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提供資金給「轉變蘇格蘭」(Transition Scotland)
14:37
as a national organization supporting the spread of this.
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作為支持計劃廣泛傳播的國家機構
14:40
And we see it all over the place as well now.
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誠如大家所見,目前所有地方都已大量開展了
14:43
But the key to transition is thinking not that we have to change everything now,
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然而,轉變的關鍵是,不要想著我們必須一朝一夕地改變所有事
14:46
but that things are already inevitably changing,
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而是,改變那些急需、迫切的事
14:49
and what we need to do is to work creatively with that,
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我們要做的,是創意地從事這些計劃
14:52
based on asking the right questions.
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提出正確的問題
14:55
I think I'd like to just return at the end
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不如讓我直接回到
14:57
to the idea of stories.
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這想法的故事結尾
14:59
Because I think stories are vital here.
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因為我認為這些故事很重要
15:01
And actually the stories that we tell ourselves,
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我們自己談論著實際中的故事,
15:03
we have a huge dearth of stories about how to move forward creatively from here.
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我們還缺少許多故事來指導我們進行創意的轉變
15:08
And one of the key things that transition does
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關於轉變,關鍵的一點是
15:10
is to pull those stories out of what people are doing.
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分享人們所做的故事
15:12
Stories about the community that's produced
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比如,社區可以自行生產
15:15
its own 21 pound note, for example,
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21英鎊紙幣,
15:18
the school that's turned its car park into a food garden,
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或是,把學校的汽車停車場轉變為一個食物花園
15:21
the community that's founded its own energy company.
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建立自己的社區發電廠等等
15:24
And for me, one of the great stories recently
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對我來說,最近有個精彩的故事
15:26
was the Obamas digging up the south lawn of the White House
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是歐巴馬夫婦在白宮南邊的草坪
15:29
to create a vegetable garden. Because the last time that was done,
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開闢蔬菜園,因為當上次
15:31
when Eleanor Roosevelt did it,
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埃莉諾•羅斯福 (Eleanor Roosevelt) 這麼做時,
15:33
it led to the creation of 20 million vegetable gardens across the United States.
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她使得人們在全美各地 興建了2千萬蔬菜園
15:38
So the question I'd like to leave you with, really,
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所以,我留給你們的問題是,
15:40
is -- for all aspects of the things that your community needs
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為了社區繁榮,考慮到需求的各個面向
15:44
in order to thrive,
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的事情,
15:46
how can it be done in such a way
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如何用這種方式,轉變、回應
15:48
that drastically reduces its carbon emissions,
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大幅降低二氧化碳的排放
15:51
while also building resilience?
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又同時建立可恢復性?
15:53
Personally, I feel enormously grateful
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我非常感謝
15:55
to have lived through the age of cheap oil.
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我所經歷過的廉價石油時代
15:58
I've been astonishingly lucky, we've been astonishingly lucky.
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我曾非常幸運,我們曾非常幸運
16:02
But let us honor what it has bought us,
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讓我們為石油所提供的一切感到榮幸,
16:04
and move forward from this point.
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然而,從現在起要轉變這一點
16:06
Because if we cling to it, and continue to assume
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因為如果我們仍舊仰賴石油,繼續認定這樣的做法
16:08
that it can underpin our choices,
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足以支持我們的選擇的話,
16:11
the future that it presents to us is one which is really unmanageable.
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那麼,我們的未來將更難以駕馭
16:14
And by loving and leaving all that oil has done for us,
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由熱愛石油,到遠離石油
16:17
and that the Oil Age has done for us,
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石油年代給了我們的一切,
16:19
we are able to then begin the creation
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我們能夠開啟
16:21
of a world which is more resilient,
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一個更具有彈性恢複性、
16:24
more nourishing,
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更有活力的世界,
16:26
and in which, we find ourselves fitter, more skilled
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我們將發現人與人之間,更加健康,更加優秀,
16:29
and more connected to each other.
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並且更加緊密地彼此聯繫
16:31
Thank you very much.
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非常感謝
16:33
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
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