The paradox of efficiency | Edward Tenner

翻译人员: Wanting Zhong 校对人员: Yolanda Zhang

Who doesn't love efficiency?

有谁不爱效率呢？

I do.

我就很爱效率。

效率意味着事半功倍。

Efficiency means more for less.

More miles per gallon, more light per watt,

每升汽油开更多公里， 每瓦电带来更多光亮，

more words per minute.

每分钟写出更多字。

More for less is the next best thing

“无中生有”退而求其次

to something for nothing.

就是“事半功倍”。

算法、大数据、云计算 能让我们事半功倍。

Algorithms, big data, the cloud are giving us more for less.

我们正在前往毫无阻力的乌托邦，

Are we heading toward a friction-free utopia

or toward a nightmare of surveillance?

还是即将迎来监控的噩梦？

I don't know.

我不知道。

My interest is in the present.

我感兴趣的是现在。

And I'd like to show you

我想为各位展示

how the past can help us understand the present.

过去能如何帮助我们理解现在。

There's nothing that summarizes

没有什么能比

平平无奇的土豆更能概括

both the promise and the danger of efficiency

like the humble potato.

效率的好处与危险。

The potato originated in the Andes

土豆发源于安第斯山脉，

and it spread to Europe from the ancient Inca.

并从古印加帝国 传播到了欧洲。

The potato is a masterpiece of balanced nutrition.

土豆可谓是均衡营养的集大成者。

And it had some very powerful friends.

它还有一些权势显赫的友人。

King Frederick the Great of Prussia

普鲁士的腓特烈大帝

was the first enthusiast.

便是第一位土豆爱好者。

He believed that the potato could help

他相信土豆能帮助

增加健康的普鲁士人口。

increase the population of healthy Prussians.

And the more healthy Prussians,

而健康的普鲁士人越多，

the more healthy Prussian soldiers.

健康的普鲁士士兵也越多。

And some of those healthy Prussian soldiers

有几位健康的普鲁士士兵

captured a French military pharmacist named Parmentier.

抓住了一位名叫帕门蒂埃 的法国随军药剂师。

Parmentier, at first, was appalled

战俘们的一日三餐

by the morning, noon and night diet

顿顿都吃土豆，

fed to POWs of potatoes,

帕门蒂埃一开始被 这些土豆餐震惊了，

but he came to enjoy it.

但他渐渐喜欢上了土豆。

He thought they were making him a healthier person.

他觉得土豆让他变得更健康。

And so, when he was released,

于是，在出狱之后，

he took it on himself to spread the potato to France.

他主动担起了 把土豆引进法国的使命。

And he had some powerful friends.

而他有一些权势显赫的友人。

Benjamin Franklin advised him to hold a banquet,

本杰明·富兰克林建议他 举办一场宴会，

at which every dish included potatoes.

宴会上的每一道菜里都有土豆。

And Franklin was a guest of honor.

而富兰克林则是一名荣誉贵宾。

Even the king and queen of France

甚至连法国的国王与王后

were persuaded to wear potatoes,

都被说服佩戴土豆，

potato flowers, pardon me.

抱歉，我的意思是土豆花。

（笑声）

(Laughter)

The king wore a potato flower in his lapel,

国王在衣襟上别了土豆花，

and the queen wore a potato flower in her hair.

王后在头发上戴了土豆花。

That was a truly great public relations idea.

那真是一个出色的公关妙计。

But there was a catch.

但其中藏有玄机。

The potato was too efficient for Europe's good.

土豆在欧洲的传播效率过高， 以至于适得其反。

在爱尔兰，土豆就像奇迹一样。

In Ireland, it seemed a miracle.

Potatoes flourished, the population grew.

土豆茁壮成长，人口随之繁盛。

But there was a hidden risk.

但其中暗藏风险。

Ireland's potatoes were genetically identical.

爱尔兰的土豆 在基因上全都相同。

They were a very efficient breed, called the Lumper.

它们是一种叫做 Lumper 的非常高产的品种。

And the problem with the Lumper

而 Lumper 土豆的问题是，

was that a blight from South America

从南美洲传来的疫病

that affected one potato

只要感染一颗土豆，

would affect them all.

就会感染所有土豆。

Britain's exploitation and callousness played a role,

不列颠的剥削与冷酷 固然扮演了重要的角色，

but it was because of this monoculture

但主要还是因为 对单一品种的依赖，

that a million people died

导致 100 万人死亡，

and another two million were forced to emigrate.

另外 200 万人被迫移民。

A plant that was supposed to end famine

这种本应结束饥荒的作物

反而造成了最为惨烈的饥荒。

created one of the most tragic ones.

The problems of efficiency today

今日的效率问题

are less drastic but more chronic.

没有那么急剧， 但是更加长期。

They can also prolong the evils

它们还能延长

那些本意解决的恶行。

that they were intended to solve.

比如说电子医疗记录。

Take the electronic medical records.

It seemed to be the answer to the problem of doctors' handwriting,

它似乎可以解决 医生笔迹潦草难辨的问题，

and it had the benefit

还有个益处是

of providing much better data for treatments.

可以为治疗提供更好的数据。

In practice, instead, it has meant

而实际上，事与愿违，

much more electronic paperwork

它意味着更多电子文书工作，

and physicians are now complaining that they have less,

医生们现在抱怨

他们能单独为病人诊疗 的时间没有增加，反而减少了。

rather than more time to see patients individually.

The obsession with efficiency can actually make us less efficient.

对效率的执迷其实 反而会降低我们的效率。

Efficiency also bites back with false positives.

效率也会用假阳性倒打一耙。

Hospitals have hundreds of devices registering alarms.

医院有几百件设备 能发出警报，

Too often, they're crying wolf.

但往往都是“狼来了”（假警报）。

It takes time to rule those out.

排除假警报需要花时间，

And that time results in fatigue, stress and, once more,

而花费的时间会导致 疲劳、压力，以及

the neglect of the problems of real patients.

对真正有需求的病人的忽视。

There are also false positives in pattern recognition.

在模式识别中也存在假阳性。

如果视角错误，

A school bus, viewed from the wrong angle,

can resemble a punching bag.

校车可能被（计算机视觉算法） 误认为拳击沙包。

So precious time is required

于是宝贵的时间不得不被用来

to eliminate misidentification.

排除这些错判。

False negatives are a problem, too.

假阴性同样是个问题。

Algorithms can learn a lot -- fast.

算法可以迅速学习大量讯息。

But they can tell us only about the past.

但它们只能告诉我们 关于过去的事情。

So many future classics get bad reviews, like "Moby Dick,"

许多将来会被奉为经典的作品 在当时反响很差，比如《白鲸记》；

or are turned down by multiple publishers,

又或者曾被不少出版社拒绝，

like the "Harry Potter" series.

比如《哈利·波特》系列。

It can be wasteful to try to avoid all waste.

为了试图避免全部次品， 可能会错过真正的宝物。

当被敌对势力模仿时， 效率也能成为陷阱。

Efficiency is also a trap when the opposition copies it.

Take the late 19th-century

比方说，19 世纪末期

French 75-millimeter artillery piece.

法国的 75 毫米口径火炮。

它的致命性是设计上的杰作。

It was a masterpiece of lethal design.

This piece could fire a shell every four seconds.

这台火炮每四秒钟 能发射一枚炮弹。

But that wasn't so unusual.

但那并算不上别致。

What was really brilliant was that because of the recoil mechanism,

它真正的不同凡响之处 在于其反后座机制，

it could return to the exact same position

在射击后能自动复位，

without having to be reaimed.

不需要重新瞄准。

So the effective rate of firing was drastically increased.

于是射击的有效速率 便大幅提升了。

这似乎是法国

Now, this seemed to be a way for France

to defeat Germany the next time they fought.

在下次与德国交战时 的制胜法宝。

但可以预想到，

But, predictably, the Germans were working

德国人也在开发类似的武器。

on something very similar.

于是当第一次世界大战爆发时，

So when the First World War broke out,

the result was the trench warfare

结果便是持续时间

that lasted longer than anybody had expected.

超乎任何人想象的壕沟战。

A technology that was designed to shorten the war, prolonged it.

原本意在缩短战争的科技， 反而延长了战争。

最大的代价 或许是错过的机遇。

The biggest cost of all may be missed opportunities.

The platform economy connecting buyers and sellers

连接买家与卖家的平台经济

can be a great investment,

可以是一项出色的投资，

and we have seen that in the last few weeks.

我们在过去几个星期也见识到了。

Companies that are still losing hundreds of millions of dollars

某些公司仍在亏损数亿美元，

may be creating billionaires with initial public offerings.

但它们的首次公开募股（IPO） 却能让人一跃成为亿万富翁。

But the really difficult inventions

然而真正艰难的发明

are the physical and chemical ones.

是物理与化学上的发明。

They mean bigger risks.

它们意味着更大的风险，

可能会蒙受损失， 因为硬件研发很难。

They may be losing out, because hardware is hard.

It's much harder to scale up a physical or chemical invention

比起基于软件的发明，

基于物理或化学的发明 更难扩大规模。

than it is a software-based invention.

比如说电池。

Think of batteries.

Lithium-ion batteries in portable devices and electric cars

可移动设备与电动车中的锂电池

are based on a 30-year-old principle.

的制造原理已有 30 年历史。

今天有多少智能手机电池

How many smartphone batteries today

will last a full day on a single charge?

能不充电地撑过一整天？

Yes, hardware is hard.

没错，硬件很难。

It took over 20 years for the patent

切斯特·卡尔逊在 1938 年

on the principle of dry photocopying,

发现了静电复印的原理，

by Chester Carlson in 1938,

而其专利经过 20 多年

to result in the Xerox 914 copier introduced in 1959.

才在 1959 年催生了 施乐（Xerox）914 复印机。

The small, brave company, Haloid in Rochester, NY

这家位于纽约州罗彻斯特市 的勇敢的小公司哈洛德，

had to go through what most corporations would never have tolerated.

不得不经受了大多数公司 永远无法容忍的难关。

There was one failure after another,

失败接踵而来，

and one of the special problems was fire.

而其中一个特殊问题是火灾。

事实上，当 914 复印机最终问世时，

In fact, when the 914 was finally released,

it still had a device that was called a scorch eliminator

它还配有一个叫做“除焦器”的装置，

but actually it was a small fire extinguisher built in.

实际上就是一个 内置的小型灭火器。

My answer to all these questions is: inspired inefficiency.

我对所有这些问题的解答是： “激发式低效率”。

Data and measurement are essential, but they're not enough.

数据与测量至关重要， 但只有它们是不够的。

Let's leave room for human intuition and human skills.

让我们为人类的直觉 和技术留出空间。

There are seven facets of inspired inefficiency.

激发式低效率有七个方面。

First, take the scenic route, say yes to serendipity.

首先，选择风景独好的路径吧， 对偶然性欣然应允。

Wrong turns can be productive.

错误的拐弯可能也意味着生产力。

有次，我在探索 密西西比河的东岸时

Once, when I was exploring the east bank of the Mississippi,

I took the wrong turn.

拐错了弯。

I was approaching a toll bridge crossing the great river,

我接近了横跨大河的收费大桥，

and the toll collector said I could not turn back.

收费员告诉我说我无法回头了。

So I paid my 50 cents -- that's all it was at the time --

于是我付了 50 美分—— 当时只需要这么点过桥费——

and I was in Muscatine, Iowa.

然后我来到了爱荷华州马斯卡廷。

I had barely heard of Muscatine,

我几乎没听说过马斯卡廷，

but it proved to be a fascinating place.

但我发现它是个引人入胜的地方。

Muscatine had some of the world's richest mussel beds.

马斯卡廷有世界上 最丰饶的贻贝河床。

A century ago, a third of the world's buttons

一个世纪以前， 世界上三分之一的纽扣

were produced in Muscatine,

都是在马斯卡廷生产的。

1.5 billion a year.

一年 15 亿颗。

The last plants have closed now,

最后几家纽扣工厂现在已经关闭了，

but there is still a museum of the pearl button industry

但这里仍有一家 珍珠纽扣产业的博物馆，

是世界上最别致的博物馆之一。

that's one of the most unusual in the world.

不过纽扣只是一个开始。

But buttons were only the beginning.

This is the house in Muscatine

在马斯卡廷有一座房子，

where China's future president stayed in 1986,

中国未来的国家主席

在 1986 年进行农业考察时 曾在这里住过。

as a member of an agricultural delegation.

It is now the Sino-US Friendship House,

它现在成为了中美友谊屋，

and it's a pilgrimage site for Chinese tourists.

是中国旅客的巡礼圣地。

How could I have foreseen that?

我怎么可能预见这一点呢？

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Second, get up from the couch.

第二，从座位上起来。

Sometimes it can be more efficient

有时用费力的方式做事

to do things the hard way.

反而效率更高。

Consider the internet of things.

比如说物联网（IoT）。

It's wonderful to be able to control lights,

呆在座位上就能控制电灯、

调节温度，甚至给房间吸尘，

set the thermostat, even vacuum the room

感觉非常棒。

without leaving one's seat.

But medical research has shown

但医学研究显示，

that actually fidgeting, getting up, walking around

其实动来动去， 起身四处走走

is one of the best things you can do for your heart.

是对心脏最有益的事情之一。

It's good for the heart and the waistline.

对你的心脏和腰围都好。

Third, monetize your mistakes.

第三，从你的错误中获利。

Great forms can be created

对意外进行富有想象力的拓展，

by imaginative development of accidents.

可以从中诞生出伟大的形态。

Tad Leski, an architect of the Metropolitan Opera

泰德·雷斯基是纽约林肯中心 大都会歌剧院

at Lincoln Center,

的一位建筑师。

was working on a sketch and some white ink fell on the drawing.

他在画草稿时，一些 白色墨水洒在了稿纸上。

换做别人可能直接把稿纸扔了。

Other people might just have thrown it away,

但雷斯基从中获得灵感， 设计出了星射线水晶灯，

but Leski was inspired to produce a starburst chandelier

that was probably the most notable of its kind of the 20th century.

或许是 20 世纪此类设计中 最为突出的一例。

Fourth, sometimes try the hard way.

第四，有时可以试试困难模式。

It can be more efficient to be less fluent.

不够熟练反而可以提高效率。

Psychologists call this desirable difficulty.

心理学家将其称为“必要难度”。

Taking detailed notes with a keyboard

用键盘敲下详细的笔记

would seem to be the best way to grasp what a lecturer is saying,

似乎是掌握老师教授内容 的最佳办法，

to be able to review it verbatim.

以后可以逐字复习。

However, studies have shown that when we have to abbreviate,

然而研究表明， 当我们不得不缩写，

when we have to summarize what a speaker is saying,

不得不概括演讲者的话，

when we're taking notes with a pen or a pencil on paper,

当我们用纸笔做笔记时，

我们实际上正在处理获得的信息。

we're processing that information.

我们在将信息消化成自己的东西，

We're making that our own,

and we are learning much more actively

相比仅仅在誊写

than when we were just transcribing

他人的话，我们也在

what was being said.

更加主动地学习。

Fifth, get security through diversity.

第五，从多样性中获得安全感。

Monoculture can be deadly.

单一种植可以是致命的。

Remember the potato?

还记得土豆的故事吗？

It was efficient until it wasn't.

它一开始很高产， 直到后面一落千丈。

Diversity applies to organizations, too.

多样性对于组织同样适用。

软件可以判断，过去是什么因素 让组织里的人获得了成功。

Software can tell what has made people in an organization succeed in the past.

And it's useful, sometimes, in screening employees.

这有时候对甄选雇员也有用。

But remember, the environment is constantly changing,

但请记住，环境一直在改变，

而筛选软件并没有办法辨别，

and software, screening software, has no way to tell,

我们也没有办法辨别

and we have no way to tell,

who is going to be useful in the future.

谁在将来会变得有用。

So, we need to supplement whatever the algorithm tells us

所以，我们需要通过直觉，通过寻找

by an intuition and by looking for people

拥有不同背景、不同视野的人，

with various backgrounds and various outlooks.

对算法的结果进行补充。

Sixth, achieve safety through redundancy and human skills.

第六，通过冗余和 人类的技术实现安全的目的。

Why did two 737 Max aircraft crash?

为什么两架 737 Max 飞机坠毁了？

We still don't know the full story,

我们仍不清楚事情全貌，

but we know how to prevent future tragedies.

但我们知道如何避免未来的悲剧。

We need multiple independent systems.

我们需要多个独立的系统。

If one fails, then the others can override it.

如果一个系统失灵， 其它系统便可以凌驾其上。

We also need skilled operators to come to the rescue

我们还需要训练有素的操纵者救场，

and that means constant training.

这意味着需要不断训练。

Seventh, be rationally extravagant.

第七，做到合理的奢侈。

托马斯·爱迪生是电影产业

Thomas Edison was a pioneer of the film industry,

as well as of camera technology.

以及摄影技术的先驱。

Nobody has done more for efficiency than Thomas Edison.

爱迪生为效率做出的贡献无人能及。

But his cost cutting broke down.

但他节约成本的做法是失败的。

His manager hired a so-called efficiency engineer,

他的经理雇佣了一位 所谓的效率工程师，

who advised him to save money

建议他使用更多 拍摄过的素材，

by using more of the film stock that he'd shot,

并减少重拍的次数，

having fewer retakes.

从而节约成本。

Well, Edison was a genius,

爱迪生是个天才，

but he didn't understand the new rules of feature films

但他并不理解专题片的新规则，

and the fact that failure was becoming the price of success.

以及失败正在成为 成功的代价这个事实。

On the other hand, some great directors, like Erich Von Stroheim,

另外一方面，一些伟大的导演， 例如埃里希·冯·施特罗海姆，

were the opposite.

则刚好相反。

They were superb dramatists,

他们是出类拔萃的剧作家，

and Stroheim was also a memorable actor.

施特罗海姆同时也是位 不可多得的演员。

But they couldn't live within their budgets.

但他们没法限制预算，

So that was not sustainable.

因此难以为继。

It was Irving Thalberg, a former secretary with intuitive genius,

真正做到“理性的奢侈”的，

是欧文·托尔伯格， 一位具有天才般直觉的前秘书。

who achieved rational extravagance.

First at Universal, and then at MGM,

他先后在环球电影公司 和米高梅公司任职，

becoming the ideal of the Hollywood producer.

成为了好莱坞制片人的模范。

Summing up, to be truly efficient,

总结来说，为了变得真正高效，

we need optimal inefficiency.

我们需要最优的低效。

The shortest path may be a curve

捷径或许是曲线，

rather than a straight line.

而非直线。

Charles Darwin understood that.

查尔斯·达尔文深谙其道。

When he encountered a tough problem,

当他遇到难题时，

he made a circuit of a trail,

他便沿着自家屋后

the sandwalk that he'd built behind his house.

的沙石小径转圈散步。

A productive path can be physical, like Darwin's,

一条富有生产力的道路 可以像达尔文的路一样是实体的，

or a virtual one, or an unforeseen detour

也可以是无形的，偏离我们预想方向

from a path we had laid out.

的一次绕路。

过度追求高效可能会降低效率，

Too much efficiency can weaken itself.

But a bit of inspired inefficiency can strengthen it.

而一点点激发式低效 则可以提升效率。

有时候，前进的最佳方式

Sometimes, the best way to move forward

是舍近求远。

is to follow a circle.

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）