The paradox of efficiency | Edward Tenner

Prevoditelj: Igor Pureta Recezent: Sanda L

Who doesn't love efficiency?

Tko ne voli djelotvornost?

I do.

Ja volim.

Efficiency means more for less.

Djelotvornost znači više za manje.

More miles per gallon, more light per watt,

Više kilometara za litru benzina, više svjetla po wattu,

more words per minute.

više riječi u minuti.

More for less is the next best thing

Više za manje je sljedeći veliki korak

to something for nothing.

prema nečemu ni iz čega.

Algorithms, big data, the cloud are giving us more for less.

Algoritmi, hrpa podataka i oblak nam daju više za manje.

Are we heading toward a friction-free utopia

Klizimo li lako prema utopiji

or toward a nightmare of surveillance?

ili noćnoj mori nadgledanja?

I don't know.

Ne znam.

My interest is in the present.

Mene zanima sadašnjost.

And I'd like to show you

I želim vam pokazati

how the past can help us understand the present.

kako nam prošlost može pomoći razumjeti sadašnjost.

There's nothing that summarizes

Ništa bolje ne sumira

both the promise and the danger of efficiency

obećanje i opasnost djelotvornosti

like the humble potato.

kao jedan običan krumpir.

The potato originated in the Andes

Krumpir potječe s Anda

and it spread to Europe from the ancient Inca.

i od drevnih Inka je stigao do Europe.

The potato is a masterpiece of balanced nutrition.

Krumpir je vrhunsko djelo balansirane ishrane.

And it had some very powerful friends.

A imao je i neke vrlo moćne prijatelje.

King Frederick the Great of Prussia

Pruski kralj Fridrik II Veliki

was the first enthusiast.

bio je prvi entuzijast.

He believed that the potato could help

Vjerovao je da krumpir može pomoći

increase the population of healthy Prussians.

povećati populaciju zdravih Prusa.

And the more healthy Prussians,

A što je više zdravih Prusa,

the more healthy Prussian soldiers.

to je više zdravih pruskih vojnika.

And some of those healthy Prussian soldiers

Neki od tih zdravih pruskih vojnika

captured a French military pharmacist named Parmentier.

su uhvatili francuskog vojnog ljekarnika po imenu Parmentier.

Parmentier, at first, was appalled

Parmentier je isprva bio zaprepašten

by the morning, noon and night diet

krumpirovim doručkom, ručkom i večerom

fed to POWs of potatoes,

koji su služeni ratnim zarobljenicima,

but he came to enjoy it.

ali je, s vremenom, počeo uživati u jelu.

He thought they were making him a healthier person.

Mislio je da ga čine zdravijom osobom.

And so, when he was released,

Pa je nakon puštanja na slobodu

he took it on himself to spread the potato to France.

uzeo u zadatak da krumpir proširi Francuskom.

And he had some powerful friends.

I on je imao neke moćne prijatelje.

Benjamin Franklin advised him to hold a banquet,

Benjamin Franklin ga je savjetovao da održi gozbu

at which every dish included potatoes.

na kojoj će svako jelo sadržavati krumpir.

And Franklin was a guest of honor.

A Franklin je bio počasni gost.

Even the king and queen of France

Čak su uvjerili francuskog kralja i kraljicu

were persuaded to wear potatoes,

da odjenu krumpire,

potato flowers, pardon me.

oprostite, cvjetove krumpira.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

The king wore a potato flower in his lapel,

Kralj je nosio cvijet krumpira za reverom,

and the queen wore a potato flower in her hair.

a kraljica ga je umetnula u kosu.

That was a truly great public relations idea.

To je bila zaista odlična promotivna ideja.

But there was a catch.

Ali, postojao je i problem.

The potato was too efficient for Europe's good.

Krumpir je bio predjelotvoran za Europu.

In Ireland, it seemed a miracle.

U Irskoj se činio kao čudo.

Potatoes flourished, the population grew.

Krumpir se širio, populacija je rasla.

But there was a hidden risk.

Ali, postojao je i nepoznati rizik.

Ireland's potatoes were genetically identical.

Irski su krumpiri bili genetski identični.

They were a very efficient breed, called the Lumper.

Bili su od vrlo djelotvorne sorte, imenom Lumper.

And the problem with the Lumper

Problem s Lumperom

was that a blight from South America

je bila bolest medljika iz Južne Amerike

that affected one potato

koja, ako bi zarazila jedan krumpir,

would affect them all.

zarazila bi sve.

Britain's exploitation and callousness played a role,

Britansko izrabljivanje i ćudljivost su imali svoju ulogu,

but it was because of this monoculture

ali je ta monokultura uzrokovala

that a million people died

smrt milijun ljudi,

and another two million were forced to emigrate.

a još dva su bila prisiljena iseliti.

A plant that was supposed to end famine

Biljka koja je trebala iskorijeniti glad

created one of the most tragic ones.

bila je uzrok jedne od najgorih ikad.

The problems of efficiency today

Problem djelotvornosti danas

are less drastic but more chronic.

je manje drastičan, a više kroničan.

They can also prolong the evils

Čak mogu produžiti zlo

that they were intended to solve.

koje su namjeravali riješiti.

Take the electronic medical records.

Uzmite elektroničke medicinske zapise.

It seemed to be the answer to the problem of doctors' handwriting,

Činili su se kao odgovor na problem ružnih liječničkih rukopisa,

and it had the benefit

uz dodatnu pogodnost

of providing much better data for treatments.

puno kvalitetnijih podataka za liječenje pacijenata.

In practice, instead, it has meant

Umjesto toga, u praksi, to je značilo

much more electronic paperwork

puno više elektroničkog izvještavanja

and physicians are now complaining that they have less,

pa se liječnici sada bune da imaju manje

rather than more time to see patients individually.

umjesto više vremena za posvećivanje pažnje pacijentima.

The obsession with efficiency can actually make us less efficient.

Opsjednutost djelotvornošću može nas učiniti manje djelotvornima.

Efficiency also bites back with false positives.

Djelotvornost ponekad uzvraća lažnim pozitivnim rezultatima.

Hospitals have hundreds of devices registering alarms.

Bolnice imaju stotine uređaja koji bilježe alarme.

Too often, they're crying wolf.

Koji se prečesto uključuju.

It takes time to rule those out.

Potrebno je vrijeme da ih se isključi,

And that time results in fatigue, stress and, once more,

a to vrijeme povećava umor, stres i, još jednom,

the neglect of the problems of real patients.

zanemarivanje problema stvarnih pacijenata.

There are also false positives in pattern recognition.

Postoje i lažni pozitivni podaci u prepoznavanju uzoraka.

A school bus, viewed from the wrong angle,

Školski autobus, gledan iz pogrešnog ugla

can resemble a punching bag.

može izgledati kao vreća za udaranje.

So precious time is required

Pa se gubi dragocjeno vrijeme

to eliminate misidentification.

kako bi se odstranile pogrešne identifikacije.

False negatives are a problem, too.

I lažni negativni podaci su također problem.

Algorithms can learn a lot -- fast.

Algoritmi mogu puno naučiti, i to vrlo brzo.

But they can tell us only about the past.

Ali nam mogu govoriti samo o prošlosti.

So many future classics get bad reviews, like "Moby Dick,"

Pa mnogi budući klasici književnosti, kao "Moby Dick", dobiju lošu ocjenu,

or are turned down by multiple publishers,

ili ih mnogi izdavači odbiju,

like the "Harry Potter" series.

poput knjiga iz serijala "Harry Potter".

It can be wasteful to try to avoid all waste.

Može biti rasipnički pokušavati izbjeći otpad.

Efficiency is also a trap when the opposition copies it.

Djelotvornost je također zamka kad je kopira opozicija.

Take the late 19th-century

Uzmimo kasno 19. stoljeće.

French 75-millimeter artillery piece.

Francuski topovi od 75 milimetara

It was a masterpiece of lethal design.

bili su remek-djelo smrtonosnog dizajna.

This piece could fire a shell every four seconds.

Mogli su ispaljivati tane svake četiri sekunde.

But that wasn't so unusual.

To nije bilo tako neobično.

What was really brilliant was that because of the recoil mechanism,

Ono po čemu su bili sjajni je povratni mehanizam,

it could return to the exact same position

koji se mogao vratiti u potpuno istu poziciju

without having to be reaimed.

bez potrebe za ponovnim ciljanjem.

So the effective rate of firing was drastically increased.

Zbog toga je značajno porasla učestalost ispaljivanja.

Now, this seemed to be a way for France

To se činilo kao način da Francuska

to defeat Germany the next time they fought.

pobijedi Njemačku u sljedećem sukobu.

But, predictably, the Germans were working

Ali, predvidivo, Nijemci su radili

on something very similar.

na nečem vrlo sličnom.

So when the First World War broke out,

Pa kad je izbio Prvi svjetski rat,

the result was the trench warfare

rezultat je bio rovovski rat

that lasted longer than anybody had expected.

koji je trajao dulje nego je itko očekivao.

A technology that was designed to shorten the war, prolonged it.

Tehnologija koja je oblikovana da skrati rat, zapravo ga je produljila.

The biggest cost of all may be missed opportunities.

Najveći trošak mogu biti propuštene prilike.

The platform economy connecting buyers and sellers

Ekonomska platforma koja povezuje kupce i prodavače

can be a great investment,

može biti odlično ulaganje,

and we have seen that in the last few weeks.

a vidjeli smo tako nešto zadnjih nekoliko tjedana.

Companies that are still losing hundreds of millions of dollars

Poduzeća koja i dalje gube stotine milijuna dolara

may be creating billionaires with initial public offerings.

možda stvaraju milijardere izlaskom na burzu.

But the really difficult inventions

No, zaista značajni izumi

are the physical and chemical ones.

su oni u fizici i kemiji.

They mean bigger risks.

Oni predstavljaju veći rizik.

They may be losing out, because hardware is hard.

Možda stvaraju gubitke jer im oprema predstavlja problem.

It's much harder to scale up a physical or chemical invention

Puno je teže fizikalne ili kemijske izume proizvesti u velikim količinama

than it is a software-based invention.

nego one softverske.

Think of batteries.

Sjetite se baterija.

Lithium-ion batteries in portable devices and electric cars

Litij-ionske baterije u prijenosnim uređajima i električnim vozilima

are based on a 30-year-old principle.

se temelje na načelu starom 30 godina.

How many smartphone batteries today

Koliko baterija u pametnim telefonima

will last a full day on a single charge?

će danas trajati cijeli dan jednim punjenjem?

Yes, hardware is hard.

Da, hardver je problem.

It took over 20 years for the patent

Trebalo je 20 godina da patent

on the principle of dry photocopying,

Chestera Carlsona iz 1938.,

by Chester Carlson in 1938,

o načelima suhog fotokopiranja

to result in the Xerox 914 copier introduced in 1959.

1959. postane stroj za fotokopiranje Xerox 914.

The small, brave company, Haloid in Rochester, NY

Malo, hrabro poduzeće Haloid iz Rochestera u državi New York

had to go through what most corporations would never have tolerated.

je moralo proći kroz ono što većina poduzeća ne bi nikad podnijela.

There was one failure after another,

Događale su se greška za greškom,

and one of the special problems was fire.

a poseban problem je bila vatra.

In fact, when the 914 was finally released,

Zapravo, kad je 914 bio predstavljen,

it still had a device that was called a scorch eliminator

u njega je bio ugrađen uređaj koji su nazvali eliminator gorenja,

but actually it was a small fire extinguisher built in.

što je zapravo bio mali, ugrađeni uređaj za gašenje požara.

My answer to all these questions is: inspired inefficiency.

Moj odgovor na sva ta pitanja je: nadahnuta nedjelotvornost.

Data and measurement are essential, but they're not enough.

Podaci i mjerenja su nužni, ali nisu dovoljni.

Let's leave room for human intuition and human skills.

Ostavimo prostor za ljudsku intuiciju i ljudske vještine.

There are seven facets of inspired inefficiency.

Sedam je stajališta nadahnute nedjelotvornosti.

First, take the scenic route, say yes to serendipity.

Prvo, koristite put s pogledom, prihvatite slučajna otkrića.

Wrong turns can be productive.

Pogrešno skretanje može biti produktivno.

Once, when I was exploring the east bank of the Mississippi,

Kada sam jednom proučavao istočnu obalu Mississippija,

I took the wrong turn.

krenuo sam u pogrešnom smjeru.

I was approaching a toll bridge crossing the great river,

Prilazio sam mostu s naplatom koji je prelazio preko rijeke,

and the toll collector said I could not turn back.

a čovjek u naplatnoj kućici je rekao da se ne mogu vratiti.

So I paid my 50 cents -- that's all it was at the time --

Platio sam svojih 50 centi -- tada je to stajalo toliko --

and I was in Muscatine, Iowa.

i našao sam se u Muscatineu, Iowi.

I had barely heard of Muscatine,

Jedva da sam i čuo za Muscatine,

but it proved to be a fascinating place.

ali se pokazao kao očaravajuće mjesto.

Muscatine had some of the world's richest mussel beds.

Muscatine je imao jedno od najvećih svjetskih nalazišta dagnji.

A century ago, a third of the world's buttons

Prije sto godina trećina sve svjetske dugmadi

were produced in Muscatine,

se proizvodila u Muscatineu.

1.5 billion a year.

1,5 milijardi godišnje.

The last plants have closed now,

Sada su zatvorene i posljednje tvornice,

but there is still a museum of the pearl button industry

ali još postoji muzej industrije biserne dugmadi

that's one of the most unusual in the world.

koji je jedan od najčudnijih na svijetu.

But buttons were only the beginning.

A dugmad je samo početak!

This is the house in Muscatine

Ovo je kuća u Muscatineu

where China's future president stayed in 1986,

u kojoj je boravio budući kineski predsjednik 1986.

as a member of an agricultural delegation.

kao član poljoprivrednog izaslanstva.

It is now the Sino-US Friendship House,

Sada je to kuća Sino-SAD prijateljstva

and it's a pilgrimage site for Chinese tourists.

i mjesto je hodočašća za kineske turiste.

How could I have foreseen that?

Mogao sam to i predvidjeti!

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

Second, get up from the couch.

Drugo, ustanite s trosjeda.

Sometimes it can be more efficient

Ponekad je djelotvornije

to do things the hard way.

učiniti stvari na teži način.

Consider the internet of things.

Uzmite internet stvari.

It's wonderful to be able to control lights,

Prekrasno je upravljati svjetlima,

set the thermostat, even vacuum the room

postaviti termostat ili očistiti sobu,

without leaving one's seat.

a da se niste makli sa stolca.

But medical research has shown

No, medicinska istraživanja pokazuju

that actually fidgeting, getting up, walking around

da je vrpoljenje, ustajanje, hodanje naokolo

is one of the best things you can do for your heart.

jedna od najboljih stvari koju možete učiniti za svoje srce.

It's good for the heart and the waistline.

Dobro je i za srce i za struk.

Third, monetize your mistakes.

Treće, učite na greškama.

Great forms can be created

Velike stvari mogu biti stvorene

by imaginative development of accidents.

maštovitim razvojem događaja.

Tad Leski, an architect of the Metropolitan Opera

Tad Leski, arhitekt Metropolitan opere

at Lincoln Center,

u Lincolnovom centru

was working on a sketch and some white ink fell on the drawing.

je radio skicu kad mu je nešto bijele tinte palo na crtež.

Other people might just have thrown it away,

Neki bi ljudi odmah to bacili u smeće.

but Leski was inspired to produce a starburst chandelier

Leskija je to nadahnulo da stvori zvjezdani luster

that was probably the most notable of its kind of the 20th century.

koji je vjerojatno najistaknutiji svoje vrste u 20-om stoljeću.

Fourth, sometimes try the hard way.

Četvrto, ponekad pokušajte na teži način.

It can be more efficient to be less fluent.

Može biti djelotvornije kad nam nije lako.

Psychologists call this desirable difficulty.

Psiholozi to nazivaju poželjna teškoća.

Taking detailed notes with a keyboard

Detaljne bilješke pomoću računala

would seem to be the best way to grasp what a lecturer is saying,

se mogu činiti najboljim načinom za bilježenje onog što predavač govori,

to be able to review it verbatim.

kako bismo više toga zabilježili.

However, studies have shown that when we have to abbreviate,

Ipak, istraživanja su pokazala da, kada moramo skraćivati,

when we have to summarize what a speaker is saying,

kada moramo sažeti što govornik govori,

when we're taking notes with a pen or a pencil on paper,

kad bilježimo olovkom na papiru,

we're processing that information.

mi obrađujemo informacije.

We're making that our own,

Mi ih činimo svojima

and we are learning much more actively

i učimo puno aktivnije

than when we were just transcribing

nego kad samo doslovno prenosimo

what was being said.

što je rečeno.

Fifth, get security through diversity.

Peto, steknite sigurnost pomoću različitosti.

Monoculture can be deadly.

Monokultura može biti smrtonosna.

Remember the potato?

Sjećate se krumpira?

It was efficient until it wasn't.

Bio je djelotvoran dok više nije bio.

Diversity applies to organizations, too.

Različitost je primjenjiva i na organizacije.

Software can tell what has made people in an organization succeed in the past.

Softver nam može reći što je u prošlosti ljude u organizacijama učinilo uspješnima.

And it's useful, sometimes, in screening employees.

Ponekad je koristan i u provjeri radnika.

But remember, the environment is constantly changing,

Ali, zapamtite, okolina se neprestano mijenja,

and software, screening software, has no way to tell,

a softver, softver za provjeru, nema načina reći,

and we have no way to tell,

a ni mi nemamo načina reći,

who is going to be useful in the future.

tko će biti koristan u budućnosti.

So, we need to supplement whatever the algorithm tells us

Zato trebamo upotpuniti ono što nam govori algoritam

by an intuition and by looking for people

uz pomoć intuicije i traženjem ljudi

with various backgrounds and various outlooks.

različitog iskustva i različitih pogleda.

Sixth, achieve safety through redundancy and human skills.

Šesto, ostvarite sigurnost pomoću zalihosti i ljudskih vještina.

Why did two 737 Max aircraft crash?

Zbog čega su se srušila dva 737 Max zrakoplova?

We still don't know the full story,

Još uvijek ne znamo potpunu priču,

but we know how to prevent future tragedies.

ali znamo kako spriječiti tragedije u budućnosti.

We need multiple independent systems.

Potrebni su nam višestruki nezavisni sustavi.

If one fails, then the others can override it.

Ako jedan zakaže, drugi ga mogu nadomjestiti.

We also need skilled operators to come to the rescue

Trebamo i vješte rukovatelje koji će doći i spasiti stvar,

and that means constant training.

a to znači stalni trening.

Seventh, be rationally extravagant.

Sedmo, budite racionalno ekstravagantni.

Thomas Edison was a pioneer of the film industry,

Thomas Edison je bio preteča filmske industrije

as well as of camera technology.

kao i tehnologije snimanja kamerom.

Nobody has done more for efficiency than Thomas Edison.

Nitko nije toliko učinio za djelotvornost kao Thomas Edison.

But his cost cutting broke down.

Ali njegovo rezanje troškova ga je upropastilo.

His manager hired a so-called efficiency engineer,

Njegov menadžer je zaposlio tzv. inženjera djelotvornosti

who advised him to save money

koji ga je savjetovao da uštedi novac

by using more of the film stock that he'd shot,

koristeći stare snimke koje je snimio

having fewer retakes.

i snimajući s manje ponavljanja scena.

Well, Edison was a genius,

Edison je bio genijalac,

but he didn't understand the new rules of feature films

ali nije razumio nova pravila igranih filmova

and the fact that failure was becoming the price of success.

i činjenicu da je greška postala cijena uspjeha.

On the other hand, some great directors, like Erich Von Stroheim,

S druge strane, neki veliki redatelji, kao Erich Von Stroheim,

were the opposite.

mislili su drugačije.

They were superb dramatists,

Bili su vrhunski dramatičari,

and Stroheim was also a memorable actor.

a Stroheim je bio i pamtljiv glumac.

But they couldn't live within their budgets.

Ali nisu mogli živjeti od novca koji su zarađivali.

So that was not sustainable.

To nije bilo održivo.

It was Irving Thalberg, a former secretary with intuitive genius,

Irving Thalberg, bivši tajnik i intuitivni genijalac,

who achieved rational extravagance.

je bio taj koji je ostvario racionalnu neumjerenost.

First at Universal, and then at MGM,

Najprije je u Universalu, a zatim i MGM-u,

becoming the ideal of the Hollywood producer.

postao idealni hollywoodski producent.

Summing up, to be truly efficient,

Da završim, da bismo bili potpuno djelotvorni,

we need optimal inefficiency.

potrebna nam je optimalna nedjelotvornost.

The shortest path may be a curve

Najkraći put je ponekad zavojit

rather than a straight line.

umjesto ravan.

Charles Darwin understood that.

Charles Darwin je to razumio.

When he encountered a tough problem,

Kad se suočio s teškim problemima,

he made a circuit of a trail,

iza svoje kuće je sagradio

the sandwalk that he'd built behind his house.

pješčanu, kružnu stazu.

A productive path can be physical, like Darwin's,

Produktivan način može biti fizički poput Darwinovog,

or a virtual one, or an unforeseen detour

ili virtualan, ili neviđen odmak

from a path we had laid out.

od načina koji smo zamislili.

Too much efficiency can weaken itself.

Prevelika djelotvornost može oslabiti samu sebe.

But a bit of inspired inefficiency can strengthen it.

Djelić nadahnute nedjelotvornosti je može ojačati.

Sometimes, the best way to move forward

Ponekad je najbolji način da idemo dalje

is to follow a circle.

pratiti krug.

Thank you.

Hvala vam.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)