The paradox of efficiency | Edward Tenner

譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Helen Chang

Who doesn't love efficiency?

誰不愛效率？

I do.

我愛。

Efficiency means more for less.

效率意味著用較少得到較多。

More miles per gallon, more light per watt,

每加侖的油跑更多哩程， 每瓦特電力產生更多光線，

more words per minute.

每分鐘說更多話。

More for less is the next best thing

唯一勝過「用較少得到較多」的，

to something for nothing.

就是「用無得到某事物」。

Algorithms, big data, the cloud are giving us more for less.

演算法、大數據、雲端， 都讓我們能用較少得到較多。

Are we heading toward a friction-free utopia

我們正在朝向 零阻力的烏托邦邁進？

or toward a nightmare of surveillance?

還是朝向監控的惡夢邁進？

I don't know.

我不知道。

My interest is in the present.

我感興趣的是當前。

And I'd like to show you

我想要跟各位說明，

how the past can help us understand the present.

過去如何協助我們了解現在。

There's nothing that summarizes

若要把效率的前景

和危險做一個總整，最好的方式

both the promise and the danger of efficiency

like the humble potato.

就是用馬鈴薯來說明。

The potato originated in the Andes

馬鈴薯源自安地斯山脈，

and it spread to Europe from the ancient Inca.

透過古印加帝國傳播到歐洲去。

The potato is a masterpiece of balanced nutrition.

馬鈴薯是均衡營養的傑作。

And it had some very powerful friends.

且它有些非常有影響力的朋友。

King Frederick the Great of Prussia

普魯士國王腓特烈二世

was the first enthusiast.

是第一位熱衷馬鈴薯的人。

He believed that the potato could help

他相信馬鈴薯可以協助

increase the population of healthy Prussians.

增加健康普魯士人的數量。

And the more healthy Prussians,

普魯士人越健康，

the more healthy Prussian soldiers.

普魯士士兵就越健康。

And some of those healthy Prussian soldiers

而一些健康的普魯士士兵

captured a French military pharmacist named Parmentier.

捕捉到了一位法國軍方的 藥師，叫做帕門提爾。

Parmentier, at first, was appalled

一開始，帕門提爾嚇壞了，

by the morning, noon and night diet

因為戰俘早上、中午、晚上

fed to POWs of potatoes,

吃的都是馬鈴薯，

but he came to enjoy it.

但他漸漸開始喜歡上了。

He thought they were making him a healthier person.

他認為馬鈴薯讓他變得更健康。

And so, when he was released,

所以，當他被釋放時，

he took it on himself to spread the potato to France.

他自己攬起責任， 要把馬鈴薯傳到法國。

And he had some powerful friends.

他有一些很有影響力的朋友。

Benjamin Franklin advised him to hold a banquet,

班傑明·富蘭克林 建議他辦一場盛宴，

at which every dish included potatoes.

每一道菜都要用到馬鈴薯。

And Franklin was a guest of honor.

而富蘭克林是盛宴的貴賓。

Even the king and queen of France

就連法國的國王和皇后

were persuaded to wear potatoes,

都被說服穿戴馬鈴薯，

potato flowers, pardon me.

抱歉，我是指馬鈴薯花。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

The king wore a potato flower in his lapel,

國王在他的翻領上戴馬鈴薯花，

and the queen wore a potato flower in her hair.

皇后則在頭髮上戴馬鈴薯花。

That was a truly great public relations idea.

這個公關的點子真的很棒。

But there was a catch.

但有個問題。

The potato was too efficient for Europe's good.

對歐洲而言，馬鈴薯的效率太好了。

In Ireland, it seemed a miracle.

在愛爾蘭，它就像是個奇蹟。

Potatoes flourished, the population grew.

馬鈴薯長得茂盛，人口也跟著成長。

But there was a hidden risk.

但背後藏有一個風險。

Ireland's potatoes were genetically identical.

愛爾蘭馬鈴薯的基因相同。

They were a very efficient breed, called the Lumper.

這些馬鈴薯屬於非常有效率的 品種：碼頭工人馬鈴薯。

And the problem with the Lumper

碼頭工人馬鈴薯的問題是，

was that a blight from South America

來自南美的枯萎病

that affected one potato

只要影響了一個馬鈴薯， 就會影響到全部馬鈴薯。

would affect them all.

Britain's exploitation and callousness played a role,

英國的開採利用 和冷酷無情也有影響，

but it was because of this monoculture

但正是因為這種單一栽培，

that a million people died

導致一百萬人死亡，

and another two million were forced to emigrate.

還有兩百萬人被迫移居。

A plant that was supposed to end famine

這種植物本來應該要終結饑荒，

created one of the most tragic ones.

卻造成了最悲劇性的饑荒之一。

The problems of efficiency today

現今，效率的問題

are less drastic but more chronic.

沒有那麼極端，但比較長期。

They can also prolong the evils

它們也可能延長 本來打算要解決的禍害。

that they were intended to solve.

以電子醫療記錄為例。

Take the electronic medical records.

It seemed to be the answer to the problem of doctors' handwriting,

它似乎可以解決醫生 手寫記錄的問題，

and it had the benefit

它還有一個益處，

of providing much better data for treatments.

是能為治療提供更好的資料。

In practice, instead, it has meant

但在現實上，卻意味著 電子文書工作多出很多，

much more electronic paperwork

and physicians are now complaining that they have less,

現在醫生都在抱怨 他們看個別病人的時間

rather than more time to see patients individually.

沒有變多，反而變少了。

The obsession with efficiency can actually make us less efficient.

迷戀效率有可能實際上 讓我們變得比較沒效率。

Efficiency also bites back with false positives.

效率也可能會以偽陽性 （誤判為真）的形式反咬。

Hospitals have hundreds of devices registering alarms.

醫院有數百項會發出警報的裝置。

Too often, they're crying wolf.

通常都是假警報。

It takes time to rule those out.

排除假警報要花時間。

And that time results in fatigue, stress and, once more,

花那些時間會造成疲憊、壓力，

the neglect of the problems of real patients.

並且忽視真正病人的問題。

There are also false positives in pattern recognition.

在模式辨識時也會遇到 偽陽性的狀況。

A school bus, viewed from the wrong angle,

從錯誤的角度看一台校車，

can resemble a punching bag.

可能會把它視為拳擊沙袋。

So precious time is required

要消除錯誤辨識，

to eliminate misidentification.

就要花寶貴的時間。

False negatives are a problem, too.

偽陰性（誤判為假）也是個問題。

Algorithms can learn a lot -- fast.

演算法能學得多且快。

But they can tell us only about the past.

但它們只能告訴我們過去的狀況。

So many future classics get bad reviews, like "Moby Dick,"

許多未來的經典得到的 是惡評，比如《白鯨記》，

or are turned down by multiple publishers,

或是被許多出版社拒絕，

like the "Harry Potter" series.

比如《哈利波特》系列。

It can be wasteful to try to avoid all waste.

「試圖避免所有的浪費」 可能就是一種浪費。

Efficiency is also a trap when the opposition copies it.

但對立方複製效率時， 效率也是會變成陷阱。

Take the late 19th-century

以十九世紀法國的

French 75-millimeter artillery piece.

七十五毫米大砲為例。

It was a masterpiece of lethal design.

它是致命設計的傑作。

This piece could fire a shell every four seconds.

這種大砲每四秒鐘 就能發射一次炮彈。

But that wasn't so unusual.

但那不算什麼。

What was really brilliant was that because of the recoil mechanism,

真正厲害的是它的回彈機制，

it could return to the exact same position

它可以返回到完全相同的位置，

without having to be reaimed.

不用重新瞄準。

So the effective rate of firing was drastically increased.

因此大大增加有效發射的比率。

Now, this seemed to be a way for France

對法國來說，這似乎是下次

to defeat Germany the next time they fought.

和德國對戰時的致勝之道。

But, predictably, the Germans were working

但，預料之中，

德國也在研究類似的東西。

on something very similar.

So when the First World War broke out,

所以，當第一次世界大戰爆發時，

the result was the trench warfare

結果是戰壕交戰，

that lasted longer than anybody had expected.

持續的時間比任何人 預期的都還久。

A technology that was designed to shorten the war, prolonged it.

設計來縮短戰爭的技術的 結果卻延長了戰爭。

The biggest cost of all may be missed opportunities.

最大的損失可能是失去的機會。

The platform economy connecting buyers and sellers

連結買家和賣家的平台經濟

can be a great investment,

可能是很棒的投資，

and we have seen that in the last few weeks.

在過去幾週我們已經看到了這一點。

Companies that are still losing hundreds of millions of dollars

目前還虧損數億美金的公司

may be creating billionaires with initial public offerings.

能透過公開上市造出億萬富翁。

But the really difficult inventions

但真正困難的發明，

are the physical and chemical ones.

是物理和化學的發明。

They mean bigger risks.

這些發明代表更高的風險。

They may be losing out, because hardware is hard.

它們可能會因為 硬體的難度而失去機會。

It's much harder to scale up a physical or chemical invention

擴大物理或化學發明規模的難度

than it is a software-based invention.

要比軟體發明的難多了。

Think of batteries.

想想電池。

Lithium-ion batteries in portable devices and electric cars

可攜式裝置和電動汽車用的鋰電池

are based on a 30-year-old principle.

基於三十年前的原理。

How many smartphone batteries today

現今有多少手機電池

will last a full day on a single charge?

充一次電就能用一整天？

Yes, hardware is hard.

沒錯，硬體很難做。

It took over 20 years for the patent

切斯特·卡爾森在 1938 年提出的

on the principle of dry photocopying,

靜電複印原理的專利

by Chester Carlson in 1938,

就花了超過二十年才被應用，

to result in the Xerox 914 copier introduced in 1959.

全錄到 1959 年

才推出 Xerox 914 型影印機。

The small, brave company, Haloid in Rochester, NY

（全錄的前身）Haloid 是位在 紐約州羅徹斯特的勇悍小公司，

had to go through what most corporations would never have tolerated.

大部分企業不會容許它的歷程。

There was one failure after another,

一次又一次失敗，

and one of the special problems was fire.

其中一個特殊的問題是火。

In fact, when the 914 was finally released,

事實上，當 914 終於推出時

it still had a device that was called a scorch eliminator

還配備了叫做焦痕清除器的裝置，

but actually it was a small fire extinguisher built in.

事實上是個內建的小型滅火器。

My answer to all these questions is: inspired inefficiency.

我對所有這些問題的答案是： 受啟發的無效率。

Data and measurement are essential, but they're not enough.

資料和測量是很重要， 但光有它們還不夠。

Let's leave room for human intuition and human skills.

留些空間給人類直覺和人類技能。

There are seven facets of inspired inefficiency.

受啟發的無效率有七個面向。

First, take the scenic route, say yes to serendipity.

第一，走緩慢的長路，接納機緣巧合。

Wrong turns can be productive.

轉錯彎也可能會有豐富的產出。

Once, when I was exploring the east bank of the Mississippi,

有次我在探勘密西西比東岸時

I took the wrong turn.

轉錯了彎。

I was approaching a toll bridge crossing the great river,

當時我駛近一座 橫越這條大河的收費橋，

and the toll collector said I could not turn back.

收費員說我不能回頭。

So I paid my 50 cents -- that's all it was at the time --

所以我付了五十分錢—— 那是當時的價格——

and I was in Muscatine, Iowa.

我到了愛荷華州的馬斯卡廷。

I had barely heard of Muscatine,

我幾乎沒聽過馬斯卡廷，

but it proved to be a fascinating place.

結果它卻是個很迷人的地方。

Muscatine had some of the world's richest mussel beds.

馬斯卡廷有一些世界上 最豐富的河蚌繁殖地。

A century ago, a third of the world's buttons

一世紀前，全世界三分之一的鈕扣

were produced in Muscatine,

是在馬斯卡廷生產的，

1.5 billion a year.

一年十五億美金。

The last plants have closed now,

現在僅存的工廠也已關閉，

but there is still a museum of the pearl button industry

但當地仍然有一座 珍珠鈕扣產業博物館，

that's one of the most unusual in the world.

是世界上最奇異的現象之一。

But buttons were only the beginning.

但鈕扣才是開端。

This is the house in Muscatine

在馬斯卡廷有一間房子，

where China's future president stayed in 1986,

1986 年，中國的未來國家主席

as a member of an agricultural delegation.

以農業代表團成員的 身分住在那裡。

It is now the Sino-US Friendship House,

這間房子現在是中美友誼屋，

and it's a pilgrimage site for Chinese tourists.

也是中國遊客的朝聖地。

How could I have foreseen that?

我怎麼可能預見這些？

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Second, get up from the couch.

第二，從沙發上站起來。

Sometimes it can be more efficient

有時，用困難的方式做事 反而是更有效率的。

to do things the hard way.

Consider the internet of things.

想想物聯網。

It's wonderful to be able to control lights,

可以控制燈光的確很好，

set the thermostat, even vacuum the room

設定自動調溫器， 甚至用吸塵器清理房間，

without leaving one's seat.

都可以坐著完成。

But medical research has shown

但醫學研究顯示

that actually fidgeting, getting up, walking around

瞎忙、站起來、走一走

is one of the best things you can do for your heart.

事實上對心臟有益，

It's good for the heart and the waistline.

對心臟和腰圍都好。

Third, monetize your mistakes.

第三，從你的錯誤中找到好處。

Great forms can be created

富有想像力的事故

by imaginative development of accidents.

可以發展造出很棒的做法。

Tad Leski, an architect of the Metropolitan Opera

泰德·萊斯基是林肯中心 大都會歌劇院的建築師，

at Lincoln Center,

他在畫草圖時，一些 白色墨水灑到他的圖上。

was working on a sketch and some white ink fell on the drawing.

Other people might just have thrown it away,

其他人可能就只會把圖丟了，

but Leski was inspired to produce a starburst chandelier

但萊斯基得到靈感，製造出了 一盞光芒四射的枝形吊燈，

that was probably the most notable of its kind of the 20th century.

可能是整個二十世紀 這類吊燈中最著名的一盞。

Fourth, sometimes try the hard way.

第四，有時試試困難的方式。

It can be more efficient to be less fluent.

不要那麼流暢可能會更有效率。

Psychologists call this desirable difficulty.

心理學家稱之為有益的困難。

Taking detailed notes with a keyboard

用鍵盤來做細節筆記，

would seem to be the best way to grasp what a lecturer is saying,

似乎是理解講師 講述之內容的最佳方式，

to be able to review it verbatim.

可以再逐字回顧。

However, studies have shown that when we have to abbreviate,

然而，研究顯示 當我們必須要簡短省寫時，

when we have to summarize what a speaker is saying,

當我們必須要把講師的話做整理時，

when we're taking notes with a pen or a pencil on paper,

當我們用筆在紙上記筆記時，

we're processing that information.

我們是在處理那些資訊。

We're making that our own,

我們在把資訊變成自己的，

and we are learning much more actively

我們的學習會更主動許多，

than when we were just transcribing

遠勝於只是把聽到的話抄寫下來。

what was being said.

Fifth, get security through diversity.

第五，透過多樣性獲取擔保。

Monoculture can be deadly.

單一栽培可能會致命。

Remember the potato?

記得馬鈴薯嗎？

It was efficient until it wasn't.

它一直很效率，直到不再如此。

Diversity applies to organizations, too.

多樣性也適用於組織。

Software can tell what has made people in an organization succeed in the past.

軟體可以判斷出是什麼因素

讓組織中的人過去很成功。

And it's useful, sometimes, in screening employees.

這些資訊有時對篩選員工很有用。

But remember, the environment is constantly changing,

但要記住環境時時刻刻在變，

and software, screening software, has no way to tell,

而軟體，篩選軟體無法判斷，

我們也無法判斷

and we have no way to tell,

who is going to be useful in the future.

誰在未來有用。

So, we need to supplement whatever the algorithm tells us

我們得要補足演算法 告訴我們的資訊，

by an intuition and by looking for people

做法是用直覺以及尋找

with various backgrounds and various outlooks.

不同背景和不同前景的人。

Sixth, achieve safety through redundancy and human skills.

第六，以備用品和人類技藝來擔保。

Why did two 737 Max aircraft crash?

為什麼兩架波音 737 Max 會墜毀？

We still don't know the full story,

我們仍然不知道全部的詳情，

but we know how to prevent future tragedies.

但我們知道如何預防未來悲劇。

We need multiple independent systems.

我們需要不只一個獨立的系統。

If one fails, then the others can override it.

如果一個系統失靈， 其他的系統能夠取代它。

We also need skilled operators to come to the rescue

我們也需要熟練的操作員來救援，

and that means constant training.

那就表示需要經常性的訓練。

Seventh, be rationally extravagant.

第七，做理智的揮霍。

Thomas Edison was a pioneer of the film industry,

湯瑪斯·愛迪生是電影業的先鋒，

as well as of camera technology.

也是照相技術的先鋒。

Nobody has done more for efficiency than Thomas Edison.

沒人比愛迪生更有效率，

But his cost cutting broke down.

但他的成本削減失敗了。

His manager hired a so-called efficiency engineer,

他的經紀人僱用所謂的效率工程師，

who advised him to save money

他建議愛迪生

by using more of the film stock that he'd shot,

多利用已經拍攝的電影膠片，

having fewer retakes.

少重拍，以節省費用。

Well, Edison was a genius,

愛迪生是天才，

but he didn't understand the new rules of feature films

但他不了解電影長片的新規則

and the fact that failure was becoming the price of success.

和失敗成了（省錢）成功的代價。

On the other hand, some great directors, like Erich Von Stroheim,

另一方面，一些偉大的導演，

如艾瑞克·馮史卓漢，則恰恰相反。

were the opposite.

They were superb dramatists,

他們是一流的劇作家，

and Stroheim was also a memorable actor.

史卓漢還是個讓人難忘的演員。

But they couldn't live within their budgets.

但他們無法控制在預算之內。

So that was not sustainable.

那不是永續的做法。

It was Irving Thalberg, a former secretary with intuitive genius,

是歐文·托爾伯格這位 有直覺的天才前任秘書

who achieved rational extravagance.

達到了理智的揮霍。

First at Universal, and then at MGM,

一開始是在環球，接著是在米高梅，

becoming the ideal of the Hollywood producer.

成為理想的好萊塢製片。

Summing up, to be truly efficient,

總結一下，要能真正有效率，

we need optimal inefficiency.

我們需要把無效率做最佳化。

The shortest path may be a curve

最短的路徑可能是曲線

rather than a straight line.

而不是直線。

Charles Darwin understood that.

查爾斯·達爾文了解這一點。

When he encountered a tough problem,

當他遇到困難的問題時， 他用小徑做成一個迴路，

he made a circuit of a trail,

the sandwalk that he'd built behind his house.

在他家後面建造了一條沙道。

A productive path can be physical, like Darwin's,

有生產力的路徑可以是實體的， 就像達爾文的一樣，

or a virtual one, or an unforeseen detour

或是虛擬的，

或是我們原訂路線所未預料的繞路。

from a path we had laid out.

Too much efficiency can weaken itself.

太有效率可能會削弱效率。

But a bit of inspired inefficiency can strengthen it.

但一點點受啟發的 無效率可以強化效率。

Sometimes, the best way to move forward

有時，向前的最佳路徑，

is to follow a circle.

是順著一個圓。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Applause)

（掌聲）