The War in Ukraine Could Change Everything | Yuval Noah Harari | TED

Prevodilac: Milenka Okuka Lektor: Ivana Korom

Bruno Giussani: We are at the end of day six of the war in Ukraine

Bruno Đusani: Na kraju smo šestog dana rata u Ukrajini

or, more correctly, of the Russian invasion of Ukraine,

ili, tačnije, ruske invazije Ukrajine,

launched on February 24 by President Vladimir Putin.

koju je 24. februara pokrenuo predsednik Vladimir Putin.

We are all shocked and saddened by the events

Svi smo šokirani i pogođeni događajima

and by the human suffering they are causing.

kao i ljudskom patnjom koju uzrokuju.

And as we speak, really,

I dok govorimo, zaista,

a Russian military convoy is headed towards Kyiv,

ruski vojni konvoj se kreće ka Kijevu,

other Ukrainian cities are being bombarded,

druge ukrajinske gradove bombarduju,

half a million Ukrainians have already fled to neighboring countries

pola miliona Ukrajinaca je već prebeglo u susedne države

and much more.

i mnogo toga još.

It's still early days,

Još uvek je rano,

and it's difficult to predict how the situation will evolve

i teško je predvideti kako će se situacija razvijati

even just in the next few hours.

čak i u narednih nekoliko sati.

But this is a war that should concern everyone, everywhere.

Ovo je ipak rat koji bi trebalo da brine svakoga, svuda.

And so today, in this TED Membership conversation,

Stoga, danas, tokom ovog razgovora za članove TED-a,

we want to try to give it a broader context with our guest,

želimo da pokušamo da pružimo širi kontekst sa našim gostom,

historian and author, Yuval Noah Harari.

istoričarem i piscem, Juvalom Noom Hararijem.

Yuval, welcome.

Juvale, dobro došao.

Yuval Noah Harari: Hello.

Juval Noa Harari: Zdravo.

Thank you for inviting me.

Hvala što ste me pozvali.

BG: I want to start from Ukraine itself and its 42 million people

BĐ: Želim da započnem od same Ukrajine i njenih 42 miliona ljudi

and its particular place between the East and the West.

kao i njenim naročitim mestom između istoka i zapada.

What do we need to know about Ukraine

Šta bi trebalo da znamo o Ukrajini

to understand this war and what's at stake?

kako bismo razumeli ovaj rat i šta je u igri?

YNH: The most crucial thing to know is that Ukrainians are not Russians,

JNH: Najbitnije što treba da zamo je da Ukrajinci nisu Rusi

and that Ukraine is an ancient, independent nation.

i da je Ukrajina drevna nezavisna nacija.

Ukraine has a history of more than a thousand years.

Ukrajina ima istoriju dužu od hiljadu godina.

Kyiv was a major metropolis and cultural center

Kijev je bio velika metropola i kulturni centar

when Moscow was not even a village.

kad Moskva nije bila ni selo.

For most of these thousand years Kyiv was not ruled by Moscow.

Većim delom ovih hiljadu godina, Kijevom nije vladala Moskva.

They were not part of the same political entity.

Nisu bili deo istog političkog entiteta.

For centuries, Kyiv was looking westwards

Vekovima se Kijev okretao zapadu

and was a part of a union with Lithuania and Poland

i bio je deo zajednice sa Litvanijom i Poljskom

until it was eventually conquered and absorbed by the Russian Empire,

dok na kraju nije osvojen i pripojen ruskom carstvu,

by the czarist empire.

od strane carske imperije.

But even after that,

Međutim, čak i nakon toga,

Ukrainians remained a separate people to a large extent,

Ukrajinci su u većoj razmeri i dalje bili poseban narod

and it's important to know that

i važno je to znati

because this is really what is at stake in this war.

jer ovo je istinski ulog u ovom ratu.

The key issue of the war,

Ključno pitanje ovog rata,

at least for President Putin,

bar za predsednika Putina,

is whether Ukraine is an independent nation,

je da li je Ukrajina nezavisna nacija,

whether it is a nation at all.

i da li je uopšte nacija.

He has this fantasy that Ukraine isn't a nation,

On ima tu nekakvu fantaziju da Ukrajina nije nacija,

that Ukraine is just a part of Russia,

da je Ukrajina samo deo Rusije,

that Ukrainians are Russians.

da su Ukrajinci Rusi.

In his fantasy,

U njegovoj fantaziji,

Ukrainians are Russians that want to be back in the fold of Mother Russia,

Ukrajinci su Rusi koji žele da se vrate u zagrljaj majke Rusije,

and that the only ones preventing it is a very small gang at the top,

a da ih jedino u tome sprečava veoma uska vrhuška,

which he portrays as Nazis,

koju on predstavlja kao naciste,

even if the president is Jewish; but OK, a Nazi Jew.

čak iako je predsednik Jevrej: ali u redu, Jevrej nacista.

And his belief was, at least,

I njegovo uverenje je bilo, čini se,

that he just needs to invade,

da on prosto treba da izvrši invaziju,

Zelenskyy will flee,

Zelenski će da pobegne,

the government will collapse,

vlada će da padne,

the army would lay down its arms,

vojska će da položi oružje,

and the Ukrainian people would welcome the Russian liberators,

a ukrajinski narod će da poželi dobrodošlicu ruskim osloboditeljima,

throwing flowers on them.

bacajući cveće na njih.

And this fantasy has been shattered already.

A ova fantazija je već razbijena.

Zelenskyy hasn’t fled,

Zelenski nije pobegao,

the Ukrainian army is fighting.

ukrajinska vojska se bori.

And the Ukrainian people is not throwing flowers on the Russian tanks,

A ukrajinski narod ne baca cveće na ruske tenkove,

it's throwing Molotov cocktails.

bacaju molotovljeve koktele.

BG: So let's unpack that

BĐ: Hajde da to razložimo

and maybe take the different pieces one way one.

i možda da razmotrimo deo po deo.

So Ukraine has a long history of being dominated and occupied.

Dakle, Ukrajina ima dugu istoriju dominacije i okupacije.

You mentioned the czar, but also the Soviet Union,

Pomenuo si cara, ali i Sovjetski Savez,

Hitler's armies.

Hitlerovu armiju.

It also has a long history of mistrust of authority and of resistance,

Takođe ima dugu istoriju otpora i nepoverenja prema autoritetu,

which goes some way to explain the current strong resistance

što delimično objašnjava trenutni snažan otpor

that the Russians are encountering.

na koji su Rusi naišli.

Anne Applebaum, the journalist, even suggests that this mistrust,

En Eplbaum, novinarka, čak sugeriše da je ovo nepoverenje,

this resistance to authority,

otpor prema autoritetu

is the very essence of Ukraine-ness, do you agree?

sama suština ukrajinskog bića, slažeš li se s tim?

YNH: We did see in the last 30 years Ukrainians twice rising in revolt

JNH: Videli smo u proteklih 30 godina kako Ukrajinci dva puta dižu pobunu

when there was a danger

kada je postojala opasnost

of an authoritarian regime being established --

od uspostavljanja autoritarnog režima -

once in 2004, once in 2013.

jednom 2004. i jednom 2013.

And when I was in Kyiv a few years ago,

A kada sam bio u Kijevu pre nekoliko godina,

what really struck me was this very strong feeling

ono što me je zateklo bio je taj snažan osećaj

of the desire for independence and for democracy.

žudnje za nezavisnošću i za demokratijom.

And I remember walking around this museum

I sećam se da sam šetao po muzeju

of the Revolution of 2013-2014

revolucije iz 2013-2014,

and seeing these images, like these two elderly women

i gledao sam slike, poput dve starije žene

who were bringing sandwiches to the demonstrators,

koje su donosile sendviče demonstratima,

to the fighters.

borcima.

They couldn’t throw stones and they couldn’t do anything else,

Nisu mogle da bacaju kamenje i nisu mogle ništa drugo da urade,

so they prepared sandwiches

pa su pripremile sendviče

and brought this huge tray full of sandwiches

i donele su tu veliku tacnu punu sendviča

to the demonstrators.

demonstrantima.

And this, yes, this is the kind of spirit

I, da, ovo je taj duh

that inspires not just the Ukrainians

koji inspiriše, ne samo Ukrajince,

but everybody who is now watching what is happening there.

već svakoga ko trenutno posmatra šta se tamo dešava.

BG: Help me understand the actual nature of the threat here

BĐ: Pomozi mi da razumem stvarnu prirodu pretnje ovde

in terms of Russia moving into Ukraine.

u smislu ruskog ulaska u Ukrajinu.

So in your last book, when you write about Russia,

Dakle, u tvojoj poslednjoj knjizi, kada si pisao o Rusiji,

you describe the Russian model as: “not a coherent political ideology,

opisao si ruski model kao: „nekoherentnu političku ideologiju,

but rather a sort of practice of monopolizing power and wealth

koja je pre praksa monopolizacije moći i bogatstva

by a small group at the top."

od strane male grupe na vrhu.”

But then, in his actions against Ukraine,

Međutim, svojim postupcima prema Ukrajini,

Putin in the last few weeks seems to move very much by an ideology,

čini se da je poslednjih nekoliko sedmica Putin itekako vođen ideologijom,

an ideology of empire, of denial of Ukraine's right to exist,

ideologijom imperijalizma, negiranja prava Ukrajine da postoji,

as you mention.

kao što si rekao.

What has changed in the four years since you wrote that book?

Šta se promenilo u četiri godine otkad si napisao tu knjigu?

YNH: The imperial dream was always there,

JNH: Imeprijalistički san je uvek bio tu,

but you know, empires are often the creation

ali, znate, imperije su često tvorevine

of a very small gang of people at the top.

veoma uske vrhuške.

I don’t think the Russian people [are] interested in this war.

Ne mislim da je ruski narod zainteresovan za ovaj rat.

I don't think that the Russian people want to conquer Ukraine

Ne mislim da ruski narod želi da osvoji Ukrajinu

or to slaughter the citizens of Kyiv.

ili da poubija građane Kijeva.

It's all coming from the top.

Sve to dolazi s vrha.

So there is no change there.

Stoga tu nema razlike.

I mean, when you look at the Soviet Union,

Mislim, ako pogledate Sovjetski Savez,

you can say that there was this mass ideology,

možete da tvrdite da je postojala ideologija masa

which was shared by a large proportion, or some proportion, of the population.

koju je delio veći procenat, ili neki procenat, populacije.

You don't see this now.

Ne vidite to sad.

You know, Russia is a very rich country,

Znate, Rusija je veoma bogata zemlja,

rich in resources,

bogata resursima,

but most people are very poor.

no većina ljudi je veoma siromašna.

Their standard of living is very, very low

Njihov standard života je veoma, veoma nizak

because all the wealth and power is kind of sucked

jer sve bogatstvo i moć nekako iscrpljuju

by the people at the top,

ljudi na vrhu,

and very little is left for everybody else.

i veoma malo ostaje svima ostalima.

So I don't think it's a society

Stoga ne mislim da se radi o društvu

where the masses are part of this kind of ideological project.

gde su mase deo ovog ideološkog projekta.

They're being ruled from the top.

Njima se vlada s vrha.

And you have this classic imperial situation,

I imate tu klasičnu imerijalističku situaciju

when the emperor,

kada car,

which controls the largest country in the world,

koji kontroliše najveću državu na svetu,

feels that, "Hey, this is not enough.

oseća da: „Hej, ovo nije dovoljno.

I need more."

Želim više.”

And sends his army to capture,

I pošalje svoju vojsku da osvoji,

to extend the empire.

da proširi carstvo.

BG: I said at the beginning

BĐ: Rekao sam na početku

that it's difficult, of course, to make predictions.

da je naravno teško praviti predviđanja.

But yesterday, you published an article in "The Guardian"

Međutim, juče si objavio članak u Gardijanu

titled: “Why Putin has already lost this war.”

naslovljen: „Zašto je Putin već izgubio rat.”

Please explain.

Molim te objasni.

YNH: Well, one thing should be very clear.

JNH: Jedna stvar bi trebalo da je veoma jasna.

I don't mean to say

Ne želim da kažem

that he's going to suffer an immediate military defeat.

da će pretrpeti trenutni vojni poraz.

He definitely has the military power to conquer Kyiv

On definitivno ima vojnu moć da osvoji Kijev

and perhaps the whole of Ukraine.

a možda i čitavu Ukrajinu.

Unfortunately, we might see this.

Nažalost, to ćemo možda videti.

But his long-term goal,

Međutim, njegov dugoročni cilj,

the whole rationale of the war,

čitav rezon iza rata

is to deny the existence of the Ukrainian nation

je negiranje postojanja ukrajinske nacije

and to absorb it into Russia.

i njeno stapanje s Rusijom.

And to do that, it's not enough to conquer Ukraine.

A da bi to postigao, nije dovoljno osvojiti Ukrajinu.

You also need to hold it.

Takođe mora da je zadrži.

And it's all based on this fantasy, on this gamble,

A sve to je zasnovano na toj fantaziji, na tom kockanju,

that most of the population in Ukraine would agree to this,

da će veći deo ukrajinske populacije pristati na to,

would even welcome this.

da će se čak obradovati tome.

And we already know that it's not true.

A već znamo da to nije istina.

That the Ukrainians are a very real nation;

Da su Ukrajinci veoma stvarna nacija;

they are fiercely independent;

žestoko su nezavisni;

they don’t want to be part of Russia;

ne žele da budu deo Rusije;

they will fight like hell.

i boriće se do koske.

And in the long-run, again, you can conquer a country,

A dugoročno, opet, možete osvojiti državu.

But as the Russians learned in Afghanistan,

Međutim, kako su Rusi naučili u Avganistanu,

as the Americans learned also in Afghanistan, also in Iraq,

kao što su Amerikanci naučili takođe u Avganistanu i Iraku,

it's much harder to hold a country.

mnogo je teže zadržati državu.

And again, the big question mark before the war was always this.

I, opet, veliki znak pitanja pre rata je uvek bio sledeće.

Before the war started, many things were already known.

Pre početka rata, mnogo toga je već bilo poznato.

Everybody knew that the Russian army is much stronger than the Ukrainian Army.

Svi su znali da je ruska vojska mnogo jača od ukrajinske vojske.

Everybody knew that NATO will not send armed forces into Ukraine,

Svi su znali da NATO neće slati naoružane snage u Ukrajinu,

troops into Ukraine.

trupe u Ukrajinu.

Everybody knew that the West, the Europeans, would be hesitant

Svi su znali da će Zapad, Evropljani oklevati

about imposing too strict a sanction regime

da nametnu previše strog režim sankcija

for fear of being hurt by it themselves.

iz straha da će i sami ispaštati.

And this was the basis for Putin's war plan.

I ovo je bila osnova Putinovog ratnog plana.

But there was one big unknown.

Međutim, postojala je jedna velika nepoznanica.

Nobody could say for sure how the Ukrainian people would react.

Niko nije mogao zasigurno da tvrdi kako će Ukrajinci da reaguju.

And there was always the option

I uvek je postojala opcija

that maybe Putin's fantasy would come true.

da će se Putinova fantazija ostvariti.

Maybe the Russians will march in,

Možda će Rusi umarširati,

Zelenskyy would flee,

Zelenski će da pobegne,

maybe the Ukrainian army will just capitulate

možda će ukrajinska vojska prosto da kapitulira,

and the population would not do much.

i narod neće preduzeti mnogo.

This was always an option.

Ovo je uvek bila opcija.

And now we know this was just fantasy.

A sada znamo da se radilo o pukoj fantaziji.

Now we know that the Ukrainians are fighting, they will fight.

Sada znamo da se Ukrajinci bore i boriće se.

And this derails the whole rationale of Putin’s war.

A ovo izbacuje iz koloseka čitav rezon Putinovog rata.

Because you can conquer the country, maybe,

Jer on može da osvoji državu, možda,

but you won't be able to absorb Ukraine back into Russia.

ali neće biti u stanju da apsorbuje Ukrajinu nazad u Rusiju.

The only thing he's accomplishing,

Jedino što postiže

he is planting seeds of hatred

je sejanje semena mržnje

in the hearts of every Ukrainian.

u srca svih Ukrajinaca.

Every Ukrainian being killed,

Svaki ubijeni Ukrajinac,

every day this war continues is more seeds of hatred

svaki dan dok ovaj rat traje dodaje još semena mržnje

that may last for generations.

koje može da traje generacijama.

Ukrainians and Russians didn't hate each other before Putin.

Ukrajinci i Rusi se nisu mrzeli pre Putina.

They’re siblings.

Bili su braća.

Now he's making them enemies.

On ih sad pretvara u neprijatelje.

And if he continues, this will be his legacy.

A ako nastavi, to će biti njegov legat.

BG: We're going to talk a bit about that again later but, you know,

BĐ: Govorićemo još malo o tome kasnije, ali, znaš,

at the same time, Putin needs a victory, right?

istovremeno, Putinu je potrebna pobeda, zar ne?

The cost, the human, economic, political cost of this war,

Cena, ljudska, ekonomska, politička cena ovog rata,

not even a week in, is already astronomical.

ni sedmicu kasnije je već astronomska.

So to justify it and also to remain, by the way,

Te kako bi to opravdao kao i ostao, usput,

a viable leader at the head of Russia,

održivi vođa na čelu Rusije,

Putin needs to win, and even win convincingly.

Putinu je potrebna pobeda, pa čak i ubedljiva pobeda.

So how do we square these things?

Dakle, kako da sve ovo pomirimo?

YNH: I don't know.

JNH: Ne znam.

I mean, the fact that you need to win doesn't mean that you can win.

Mislim, sama činjenica da moraš da pobediš ne znači da možeš da pobediš.

Lots of political leaders need to win, and sometimes they lose.

Mnogim političkim vođama je potrebno da pobede, pa ponekad izgube.

He could stop the war, declare that he won,

Može da zaustavi rat, proglasi pobedu

and say that recognizing Luhansk and Donetsk by the Russians

i da kaže kako je prepoznavanje Luhanska i Donjecka kao ruskih

is what he really wanted all along, and he achieved this.

ono što je otpočetka želeo i da je to postigao.

Maybe they cobble this agreement, or I don’t know.

Možda skuju takav dogovor ili pojma nemam.

This is the job of politicians, I'm not a politician.

To je posao za političare, ja nisam političar.

But I can tell you that I hope, for the sake of everybody --

Međutim, mogu vam reći da se nadam zarad svih -

Ukrainians, Russians and the whole of humanity --

Ukrajinaca, Rusa, i čitavog čovečanstva -

that this war stops immediately.

da će ovaj rat da stane istog trena.

Because if it doesn't,

Jer ako ne stane,

it's not only the Ukrainians and the Russians

neće samo Ukrajinci i Rusi

that will suffer terribly.

da užasno ispaštaju.

Everybody will suffer terribly if this war continues.

Svi ćemo užasno da ispaštamo, ako se ovaj rat nastavi.

BG: Explain why.

BĐ: Objasni zašto.

YNH: Because of the shock waves destabilizing the whole world.

JNH: Zbog seizmičkih talasa koji će da destabilišu čitav svet.

Let’s start with the bottom line:

Započnimo sa prihodom:

budgets.

budžeti.

We have been living in an amazing era of peace in the last few decades.

Živeli smo u izvanrednom razdoblju mira proteklih nekoliko decenija.

And it wasn't some kind of hippie fantasy.

I nije se radilo o nekakvoj hipi fantaziji.

You saw it in the bottom line.

Videli smo to u prihodu.

You saw it in the budgets.

VIdeli smo to u budžetima.

In Europe, in the European Union,

U Evropi, u Evropskoj uniji,

the average defense budget of EU members

prosečan vojni budžet članica EU

was around three percent of government budget.

je bio oko tri procenta vladinog budžeta.

And that's a historical miracle, almost.

A radi se gotovo o istorijskom čudu.

For most of history,

Većim delom istorije,

the budget of kings and emperors and sultans, like 50 percent,

budžet kraljeva i careva i sultana, oko 50 procenata,

80 percent goes to war, goes to the army.

80 procenata je išlo na rat, išlo na vojsku.

In Europe, it’s just three percent.

U Evropi je svega tri procenta.

In the whole world, the average is about six percent, I think,

U čitavom svetu, prosek je oko šest procenata, verujem,

fact-check me on this, but this is the figure that I know,

proverite da li je tačno, ali to je brojka koja mi je poznata,

six percent.

šest procenata.

What we saw already within a few days,

U svega nekoliko dana smo videli

Germany doubles its military budget in a day.

da je nemačka udvostručila svoj vojni budžet.

And I'm not against it.

I ja nisam protiv toga.

Given what they are facing, it's reasonable.

S obzirom na to sa čime su suočeni, logično je.

For the Germans, for the Poles,

Za Nemce, za Poljake,

for all of Europe to double their budgets.

za sve Evropljane da udvostruče budžete.

And you see other countries around the world doing the same thing.

A vidite druge države širom sveta kako rade isto.

But this is, you know, a race to the bottom.

Međutim, znate, radi se o trci ka dnu.

When they double their budgets,

Kada udvostruče budžete,

other countries look and feel insecure and double their budgets,

druge države će videti i neće se osećati sigurno, pa će udvostručiti svoje budžete,

so they have to double them again and triple them.

pa ovi onda moraju da ih udvostruče i utrostruče.

And the money that should go to health care,

I novac koji bi trebalo da ide za zdravstvo,

that should go to education,

trebalo da ide za obrazovanje,

that should go to fight climate change,

trebalo da ide za borbu protiv klimatskih promena,

this money will now go to tanks, to missiles, to fighting wars.

ovaj novac će da ide za tenkove, projektile i za ratovanje.

So there is less health care for everybody,

Te će da bude manje zdravstvenog osiguranja za sve

and there is maybe no solution to climate change

i možda neće biti rešenja za klimatske promene

because the money goes to tanks.

jer novac ide za tenkove.

And in this way, even if you live in Australia,

A na ovaj način, čak i ako živite u Australiji,

even if you live in Brazil,

čak i ako živite u Brazilu,

you will feel the repercussions of this war in less health care,

osećaćete posledice ovog rata u gorem zdravstvu,

in a deteriorating ecological crisis,

u sve goroj ekološkoj krizi,

in many other things.

u raznim stvarima.

Again, another very central question is technology.

Opet, još jedno centralno pitanje je tehnologija.

We are on the verge, we are already in the middle, actually,

Na ivici smo, već smo zapravo u središtu

of new technological arms races in fields like artificial intelligence.

tehnološke trke u oblastima kao što je veštačka inteligencija.

And we need global agreement about how to regulate AI

I potreban nam je gloalni dogovor o tome kako da regulišemo VI

and to prevent the worst scenarios.

i sprečimo najgore scenarije.

How can we get a global agreement on AI

Kako da imamo globalni dogovor o VI

when you have a new cold war, a new hot war?

kada imate novi hladni rat, novi usijani rat?

So in this field, to all hopes

Stoga u ovoj oblasti, sve nade

of stopping the AI arms race will go up in smoke if this war continues.

zaustavljanja trke u razvoju VI će iščileti, ako se ovaj rat nastavi.

So again, everybody around the world will feel the consequences in many ways.

Opet, svi širom sveta će osećati posledice na razne načine.

This is much, much bigger than just another regional conflict.

Ovo je mnogo, mnogo veće od još jednog regionalnog konflikta.

BG: If one of Putin's goals here is to divide Europe,

BĐ: Ako je jedan od Putinovih ciljeva ovde da podeli Evropu,

to weaken the transatlantic alliance

da oslabi transatlantski savez

and the global liberal order,

i globalni liberalni poredak,

he seems to kind of accidentally have revitalized all of them in a way.

čini se da je slučajno oživeo sve to na neki način.

US-EU relations have never been so close in many years.

Odnosi EU i SAD-a nisu bili ovako bliski godinama.

And so how do you read that?

Dakle, kako ti to tumačiš?

YNH: Well, again, in this sense, he also lost the war.

JNH: Pa, opet, u ovom smislu je takođe izgubio rat.

If his aim was to divide Europe, to divide NATO,

Ako je njegov cilj bio da podeli Evropu, da podeli NATO,

he's achieved exactly the opposite.

postigao je upravo suprotno.

I mean, I was amazed by how quick,

Mislim, bio sam zadivljen kako je brza,

how strong and how unanimous the European reaction was.

kako je snažna i jednoglasna bila reakcija Evrope.

I think the Europeans surprised themselves.

Mislim da su Evropljani iznenadili same sebe.

You even see countries like Finland and Sweden sending arms to Ukraine

Čak vidite države poput Finske i Švedske kako šalju oružje u Ukrajinu

and closing their airspace.

i zatvaraju svoj vazdušni prostor.

They didn't even do it in the Cold War.

Nisu to čak radili ni tokom Hladnog rata.

It's really amazing to see it.

Zaista je neverovatno to posmatrati.

I think another very important thing is what has been dividing the West

Smatram da je još jedna važna stvar koja je delila Zapad

over the several years now,

tokom nekoliko prethodnih godina,

it’s what people term the “culture war”.

nešto što ljudi formulišu kao „kulturološki rat”.

The culture war between left and right, between conservatives and liberals.

Kulturološki rat između levice i desnice, između konzervativaca i liberala.

And I think this war can be an opportunity

I smatram da bi ovaj rat mogao da bude prilika

to end the culture war within the West,

da se okonča kulturološki rat unutar zapada,

to make peace in the culture war.

da se postigne mir u kulturološkom ratu.

First of all, because you suddenly realize we are all in this together.

Pre svega jer iznenada shvatate da smo svi u ovome zajedno.

There are much bigger things in the world

Postoje daleko veće stvari na svetu

than these arguments between left and right

od rasprava između levice i desnice

within the Western democracies.

unutar zapadnih demokratija.

And it's a reminder that we need to stand united

I to je podsetnik da moramo da budemo ujedinjeni

to protect Western liberal democracies.

kako bismo zaštitili zapadne liberalne demokratije.

But it's deeper than that.

Međutim, dublje je od toga.

Much of the argument between left and right

Značajan deo rasprave između levice i desnice

seemed to be in terms of a contradiction

čini se da je bio u smislu protivrečnosti

between liberalism and nationalism.

između liberalizma i nacionalizma.

Like, you need to choose.

U smislu, morate da izaberete.

And the right goes with nationalism,

A desnica bira nacionalizam,

and the left goes more liberalism.

dok levica više naginje liberalizmu.

And Ukraine is a reminder that no, the two actually go together.

A Ukrajina je podsetnik da ne, to dvoje zapravo idu zajedno.

Historically, nationalism and liberalism are not opposites.

Istorijski, nacionalizam i liberalizam nisu suprotnosti.

They are not enemies.

Nisu neprijatelji.

They are friends, they go together.

Prijatelji su i idu zajedno.

They meet around the central value of freedom, of liberty.

Sastaju se oko središnjih vrednosti slobode, nezavisnosti.

And to see a nation fighting for its survival,

A posmatrati naciju kako se bori za opstanak,

fighting for its freedom,

bori za slobodu,

you see it on Fox News or you see it in CNN.

gledate to na Foks njuzu ili to gledate na Si-En-En-u.

And yes, they tell the story a little differently,

I da, pripovedaju priču nešto drugačije,

but they suddenly see the same reality.

ali iznenada vide istu stvarnost.

And they find common ground.

I pronalaze zajedničko tlo.

And the common ground is to understand

A zajedničko tlo je razumevanje

that nationalism is not about hating minorities or hating foreigners,

da nacionalizam nije mržnja prema manjinama ili prema strancima,

it's about loving your compatriots,

već ljubav prema svojim sunarodnicima,

and reaching a peaceful agreement

i postizanje mirnog sporazuma

about how we want to run our country together.

o tome kako želimo da zajedno vodimo našu državu.

And I hope that seeing what is happening

I nadam se da će svedočenje onome što se dešava

would help to end the culture war in the West.

pomoći u okončanju kulturološkog rata na zapadu.

And if this happens, we don't need to worry about anything.

A ako se to desi, ne moramo da brinemo o bilo čemu drugom.

You know, when you look at the real power balance,

Znate, kad posmatrate istinski balans moći,

if the Europeans stick together,

kad bi se Evropljani držali zajedno,

if the Americans and the Europeans stick together

kad bi se Amerikanci i Evropljani držali zajedno,

and stop this culture war and stop tearing themselves apart,

i zaustavili ovaj kulturološki rat i prestali da se cepaju,

they have absolutely nothing to fear -- the Russians or anybody else.

ne bi imali apsolutno ničeg da se plaše - Rusa ili bilo koga drugog.

BG: I'm going to ask you a question later about the stories the West tells itself,

BĐ: Postaviću ti kasnije pitanje u vezi sa pričama koje Zapad priča sebi,

but let me zoom out for a second and get a larger perspective.

ali hajde da se udaljimo na sekund i sagledamo širu perspektivu.

You wrote another essay last week in “The Economist”,

Napisao si još jedan esej prošle sedmice u „Ekonomistu”,

and you argue that what's at stake in Ukraine is, and I quote you,

i raspravljao si da je glavni ulog u Ukrajini, i citiraću te:

"the direction of human history"

„smer istorije čovečanstva”

because it puts at risk what you call

jer ugrožava ono što nazivaš

the greatest political and moral achievement of modern civilization,

najvećim političkim i moralnim dostignućem savremene civilizacije,

which is the decline of war.

a radi se o opadanju u broju ratova.

So now we are back in a war and potentially afterwards

A sad smo opet u ratu i potencijalno kasnije

into a new form of cold war or hot war,

u novom vidu hladnog ili usijanog rata,

but hopefully not.

iako se nadamo suprotnom.

Elaborate about that essay you wrote.

Obrazloži esej koji si napisao.

YNH: Yeah, I mean, some people think

JNH: Da, mislim, neki ljudi smatraju

that all this talk about the decline of war

da je sva ta priča o opadanju broja ratova

was always just a fantasy.

uvek bila prosto fantazija.

But ...

Međutim...

Again, you look at the statistics.

Ponovo, pogledate statistike.

Since 1945,

Od 1945,

there has not been a single clash between superpowers,

nismo imali nijedan sukob među supersilama,

whereas previously in history,

dok je prethodno tokom istorije

this was, you know, the basic stuff of history.

ovo bilo osnov istorije.

Since 1945,

Od 1945,

not a single internationally recognized country

nijedna međunarodno priznata država

was wiped off the map by external invasion.

nije izbrisana sa karte sveta posredstvom spoljne invazije.

This was the common thing in history.

Radi se o opštem mestu u istoriji.

Until then and then it stopped.

Sve do tad, a onda je prestalo.

This is an amazing achievement,

Radi se o neverovatnom dostignuću,

which is the basis for everything we have,

a to je osnov svega što imamo,

for our medical services,

osnov naših zdravstvenih usluga,

for education system,

našeg obrazovnog sistema,

and this is all now in jeopardy.

a to je sad sve ugroženo.

Because this era of peace,

Jer ovo razdoblje mira

it wasn't the result of some miracle.

nije bilo rezultat nekakvog čuda.

It wasn't the result of a change in the laws of nature.

Nije bilo rezultat promene u zakonima prirode.

It was humans making better decisions and building better institutions,

Radilo se o ljudima koji su donosili bolje odluke i gradili bolje institucije,

which means also

a to takođe znači

that there is no guarantee for the future.

da to više nije zagarantovano u budućnosti.

If humans, some humans, start making bad decisions

Ukoliko ljudi, neki ljudi, počnu da donose loše odluke

and start destroying the institutions that kept the peace,

i počnu da uništavaju institucije koje su održavale mir,

then we will be back in the era of war

onda ćemo se vratit u razdoblje rata

with budgets, military budgets going to 20, 30, 40 percent.

sa vojnim budžetima koji će ići na 20, 30, 40 procenata.

It can happen.

To može da se desi.

It's in our hands.

U našim je rukama.

And I'll just say one more thing,

I samo ću reći još nešto,

When, not just me, but other scholars like Steven Pinker and others,

kada sam, ne samo ja, već i drugi akademici poput Stivena Pinkera i drugih,

talked about the era of peace,

govorili o razdoblju mira,

some people understood it as kind of encouraging complacency.

neki ljudi su to shvatili kao da ohrabrujemo samozadovoljstvo.

That, oh, we don't need to worry about anything.

Da, oh, ne moramo da brinemo o bilo čemu.

No, I mean, the message was really the opposite.

Ne, mislim, poruka je bila upravo suprotna.

It was a message of responsibility.

Bila je to poruka o odgovornosti.

If you think that there is no era of peace in history,

Ako smatrate da ne postoji razdoblje mira u istoriji,

it's always war, it's always the jungle,

da je uvek ratovanje, da je uvek džungla,

there is a constant level of violence in nature,

da uvek imamo konstantan nivo nasilja u prirodi,

then this basically means

onda to u suštini znači

that there is no point struggling for peace

da nema svrhe boriti se za mir

and there is no responsibility on leaders like Putin

i da vođe poput Putina nemaju odgovornost

because you can't blame Putin for the war.

jer ne možete da krivite Putina za rat.

It's just a law of nature that there are wars.

To je prosto zakon prirode da postoje ratovi.

When you realize, no, humans are able to decrease the level of violence,

Kada shvatite da, ne, ljudi su sposobni da umanje nivo nasilja,

then it should make us much more responsible.

onda bi svi trebalo da budemo daleko odgovorniji.

And it should also make us understand

I onda bi trebalo da razumemo

that the war in Ukraine now, it’s not a natural disaster.

da trenutni rat u Ukrajini nije prirodna katastrofa.

It’s a man-made disaster, and a single man.

Radi se o katastrofi koju je stvorio čovek, i to jedan čovek.

It's not the Russian people who want this war.

Ne želi ruski narod ovaj rat.

There's really just a single person

Uistinu se radi samo o jednoj osobi

who, by his decisions,

koja je, svojim odlukama,

created this tragedy.

stvorila ovu tragediju.

BG: So one of the things that has come back

BĐ: Nešto što se vratilo

in the last weeks and months is the nuclear threat.

u poslednjim nedeljama i mesecima je nuklearna pretnja.

It's moved back into the center of political and strategic considerations.

Vratila se u središte političkih i strateških razmatranja.

Putin has talked about it several times,

Putin je o tome govorio u više navrata,

the other day he ordered Russia's nuclear forces on a higher alert status.

pre neki dan je naredio stavljanje ruskih nuklearnih snaga u stanje uzbune.

President Zelenskyy himself at the Munich Security Conference

Sam predsednik Zelenski je na Bezbednosnoj konferenciji u Minhenu

essentially said that Ukraine had made a mistake

u suštini rekao da je Ukrajina pogrešila

abandoning the nuclear weapons it had inherited from the Soviet Union.

što se odrekla nuklearnog naoružanja koje je nasledila od Sovjetskog Saveza.

That's a statement that I suspect many countries are pondering.

To je izjava koju verovatno mnoge države razmatraju.

What's your thinking about the return of the nuclear threat?

Koje je tvoje viđenje povratka nuklearne pretnje?

YNH: It's extremely frightening.

JNH: Veoma je zastrašujuće.

You know, it's like it's almost Freudian,

Znate, nekako je gotovo frojdovski,

it's the return of the repressed.

radi se o povratku potisnutog.

We thought that, oh, nuclear weapons, yes,

Smatrali smo da, oh, nuklearno oružje, da,

there was something about that in the 1960s

bilo je nešto u vezi s tim tokom 1960-ih

with the Cuban Missile Crisis and Dr. Strangelove.

sa kubanskom raketnom krizom i Doktorom Strejndžlav.

But no, it's here.

Međutim, ne, tu je.

And, you know, it took just a few days

I, znate, bilo je potrebno samo nekoliko dana

of difficulties on the battlefield

poteškoća na ratištu

for suddenly --

da iznenada -

I mean, I'm watching television, like, the news

mislim, gledam televiziju, vesti

and you have these experts explaining to people

i mate te eksperte koji objašnjavaju ljudima

what different nuclear weapons will do to this city or to this country.

šta bi različito nuklearno oružje uradilo ovom gradu ili onoj državi.

It rushed back in.

Sve se sjurilo nazad.

So, you know, nuclear weapons are --

Znate, nuklearno oružje je -

in a way they also, until now, preserved the peace of the world.

na neki način takođe, sve do sad, održavalo mir u svetu.

I belong to the school of thought that if it was not for nuclear weapons,

Pripadam školi mišljenja koja smatra da nije bilo nuklearnog oružja,

we would have had the Third World War

imali bismo Treći svetski rat

between the Soviet Union and the United States and NATO

između Sovjetskog Saveza i Sjedinjenih Država i NATO-a

sometime in the 1950s or '60s.

nekad tokom 1950-ih ili ’60-ih.

That nuclear weapons actually, until today, served a good function.

Da je nuklearno oružje zapravo, sve do danas, služilo u dobre svrhe.

It's because of nuclear weapons

Zbog nuklearnog oružja

that we did not have any more direct clashes between superpowers

nismo više imali direktne sukobe između supersila

because it was obvious that this would be collective suicide.

jer je bilo očigledno da bi se radilo o kolektivnom samoubistvu.

But the danger is still there, it's always there.

Međutim, opasnost je i dalje tu, uvek je tu.

If there is miscalculation,

Ukoliko dođe do pogrešnog proračuna,

then the results could, of course,

onda bi rezultati mogli biti, naravno,

be existential, catastrophic.

egzistencijalni, katastrofalni.

BG: And at the same time, you know, in the '70s after Cuba and Berlin,

BĐ: A istovremeno, znaš, tokom ’70-ih nakon Kube i Berlina,

and so in the '60s, but in the '70s,

dakle, tokom ’60-ih, ali i ’70-ih,

we started building a sort of international institutional architecture

počeli smo graditi nekakvu međunarodnu institucionalnu arhitekturu

that helped reduce the risk of military confrontation of nuclear weapons,

koja je pomogla da se umanji rizik od vojnog sukobljavanja nuklearnim oružjem,

we used, you know, anything from arms control agreements

koristili smo, znaš, sve od sporazuma o kontroli oružja

to measures designed to build trust or to communicate directly and so on.

do mera osmišljenih da grade poverenje ili da direktno komuniciraju, itd.

And then in the last decade or so,

A otprilike u poslednjoj deceniji,

that has been progressively kind of scrapped,

sve to je počelo progresivno da se odbacuje,

so we are even in a more dangerous situation

pa smo čak i u opasnijoj situaciji

than we were let's say, at the end of the last century.

nego što smo bili recimo na kraju prošlog veka.

YNH: Completely, I mean,

JNH: Skroz, mislim,

we are now reaping the bad fruits of neglect

mi sad ubiramo trulo voće zanemarivanja

that's been going on for several years,

koje je sazrevalo nekoliko godina,

not just about nuclear weapons, but in general,

ne samo u vezi sa nuklearnim oružjem već uopšteno,

about international institutions and global cooperation.

u vezi sa međunarodnim institucijama i globalnom saradnjom.

We’ve built, in the late 20th century,

Sagradili smo, tokom kasnog XX veka,

a house for humanity

kuću za čovečanstvo

based on cooperation,

zasnovanu na saradnji,

based on collaboration,

zasnovanu na dosluhu,

based on the understanding

zasnovanu na razumevanju

that our future depends on being able to cooperate,

da naša budućnost zavisi od sposobnosti saradnje,

otherwise we will become extinct as a species.

u suprotnom ćemo kao vrsta nestati.

And we all live in this house.

A svi živimo u ovoj kući.

But in the last few years we stopped --

Tokom pak proteklih nekoliko godina smo prestali -

we neglected it, we stopped repairing it.

zapustili smo je, prestali smo da je popravljamo.

We allow it to deteriorate more and more.

Dozvolili smo da se sve više i više urušava.

And, you know, eventually it will --

I, znate, naposletku će -

It is collapsing now.

upravo se ruši.

So I hope that people will realize before it's too late

Stoga se nadam da će ljudi da shvate pre nego što bude kasno

that we need not just to stop this terrible war,

da ne treba samo da zaustavimo ovaj užasni rat,

we need to rebuild the institutions,

moramo da ponovo izgradimo institucije,

we need to repair the global house in which we all live together.

moramo da popravimo globalnu kuću u kojoj svi zajedno živimo.

If it falls down, we all die.

Ako se sruši, svi umiremo.

BG: So we have, among the audience listening,

BĐ: Među slušaocima u publici imamo

Rola from --

Rolu iz -

I don't know where she's from, she grew up in Lebanon --

ne znam odakle je, odrasla je u Libanu -

and she said, "I lived the war, I slept on the ground, I breathed fear.

a ona kaže: „Živela sam u ratu, spavala na zemlji, udisala strah.

All the reasons were explained to me that the only remaining learning came

Nakon što su mi objašnjeni svi razlozi jedini trajni nauk je bio

the war is absurd.

da je rat apsurdan.

We talk about strategy, power, budgets, opportunities, technologies.

Govorimo o strategiji, moći, budžetima, prilikama, tehnologijama.

What about human suffering and psychological trauma?"

Šta je sa ljudskom patnjom i psihološkom traumom?”

Especially, I assume what she's asking is what about, what's going to remain,

Naročito, pretpostavljam da pita šta je sa onim što će da ostane

in terms of the human suffering

u smislu ljudske patnje

and the psychological trauma going forward?

i psihološke traume u budućnosti?

YNH: Yeah, I mean, these are the seeds of hatred

JNH: Da, mislim, radi se o semenu mržnje

and fear and misery

i straha i jada

that are being planted right now in the minds and the bodies

koje se trenutno seje u umove i tela

of tens of millions, hundreds of millions of people, really.

desetina miliona, stotina miliona ljudi, uistinu.

Because it's not just the people in Ukraine,

Jer ne radi se samo o ljudima u Ukrajini,

it's also in the countries around, all over the world.

već i o državama u okruženju, širom sveta.

And these seeds will give a terrible harvest,

A ovo seme će da izrodi užasnu žetvu,

terrible fruits in years, in decades to come.

užasne plodove u narednim godinama i decenijama.

This is why it's so crucial to stop the war immediately.

Zato je od suštinske važnosti zaustaviti rat istog trena.

Every day this continues, plants more and more of these seeds.

Svaki dan dok traje, seje sve više i više ovog semena.

And, you know, like this war now,

I, znate, kao ovome ratu sada,

its seeds were, to a large extent,

njegovo seme je, u najvećoj meri,

planted decades and even centuries ago.

posejano pre više decenija, čak vekova.

That part of the Russian fears that are motivating Putin

Deo ruskog straha koji motiviše Putina

and motivating people around him

i motiviše ljude oko njega

is memories of past invasions of Russia,

su sećanja na prošle ruske invazije,

especially, of course, in Second World War.

naročito, naravno, u Drugom svetskom ratu.

And of course, it's a terrible mistake

I naravno da je užasna greška

what they are doing with it.

to što rade s tim.

They are recreating again the same things that they should learn to avoid.

Ponovo stvaraju iste stvari koje bi trebalo da nauče da izbegavaju.

But yes, these are still the terrible fruits

Ali, da, to su i dalje užasni plodovi

of the seeds being planted in the 1940s.

semena koje je posejano tokom 1940-ih.

BG: It's what in same article you call

BĐ: Ti to u istom članku nazivaš

the fact that nations are ultimately built on stories.

činjenicom da su nacije naposletku izgrađene na pričama.

So these seeds are the stories we are starting to create now.

Dakle, ovo seme su priče koje trenutno počinjemo da stvaramo.

The war in Ukraine is starting to create the stories

Rat u Ukrajini počinje da stvara priče

that are going to have an impact in the future, that's what you're saying.

koje će da utiču na budućnost, to govoriš.

YNH: Some of the seeds of this war were planted in the siege of Leningrad.

JNH: Nešto od semena ovog rata je posejano tokom opsade Lenjingrada.

And now it gives fruit in the siege of Kyiv,

I sada daje plod u vidu opsade Kijeva,

which may give fruit in 40 or 50 years in more terrible ...

a to može da izraste u još užasnije plodove za 40 ili 50 godina...

We need to cut this, we need to stop this.

Moramo to da sasečemo i zaustavimo.

You know, as a historian,

Znate, kao istoričar,

I feel sometimes ashamed or responsible, I don't know what,

ponekad osećam sramotu ili odgovornost, ne znam šta,

about what history, the knowledge of history is doing to people.

zbog toga šta istorija, poznavanje istorije radi ljudima.

In recent weeks, I have been watching all the world leaders talking with Putin,

Poslednjih sedmica sam posmatrao sve svetske vođe kako razgovaraju sa Putinom,

and very often he gave them lectures on history.

i on im je često držao lekcije iz istorije.

I think that Macron had a discussion with him for five hours,

Mislim da je Makron razgovarao s njim pet sati,

and afterwards, said, “Most of the time he was lecturing me about history.”

i kasnije je rekao: „Većinu vremena me je podučavao istoriji.”

And as a historian, I feel ashamed

A kao istoričara, sramota me je

that this is what my profession in some way is doing.

da to moja profesija na neki način radi.

I know it for my own country.

Znam to na primeru moje države.

In Israel, we also suffer from too much history.

U Izraelu takođe patimo od viška istorije.

I think people should be liberated from the past,

Mislim da ljude treba osloboditi prošlosti,

not constantly repeating it again and again.

da je ne ponavljaju iznova i iznova.

You know, everybody should kind of free themselves

Znate, svi bi trebalo da se oslobodimo

from the memories of the Second World War.

sećanja na Drugi svetski rat.

It's true of the Russians,

Tačno je za Ruse,

it's also true of the Germans.

takođe je tačno za Nemce.

You know, I look at Germany now,

Znate, posmatram trenutno Nemačku

and what I really want to say, if there are Germans watching us,

i ono što želim da kažem, ako nas Nemci posmatraju,

what I really want to say to the Germans:

zaista želim da kažem Nemcima:

guys, we know you are not Nazis.

momci, znamo da niste nacisti.

You don't need to keep proving it again and again.

Ne morate to da dokazujete iznova i iznova.

What we need from Germany now is to stand up and be a leader,

Od Nemačke trenutno očekujemo da istupi i bude vođa,

to be at the forefront of the struggle for freedom.

da bude na pročelju borbe za slobodu.

And sometimes Germans are afraid that if they speak forcefully

A ponekad je Nemce strah da ako govore samopouzdano

or pick up a gun,

ili uzmu oružje,

everybody will say, "Hey, you're Nazis again."

svi će da kažu: „Hej, ponovo ste nacisti.”

No, we won't think that.

Ne, nećemo to da pomislimo.

BG: That's happening right now.

BĐ: To se trenutno dešava.

I mean, lots of things that were inconceivable just 10 days ago

Mislim, mnoge stvari koje su bile nezamislive pre svega 10 dana

have happened in the last few weeks.

su se desile u poslednjih par sedmica.

And one of the most striking, to me in any case,

A jedna od najupečatljivijih, bar meni,

is Germany's reaction and transformation.

je nemačka reakcija i transformacija.

I mean, the new chancellor, Olaf Scholz, the other day announced

Mislim, novi kancelar, Olaf Šolc, pre neki dan je najavio

that Germany will send arms to Ukraine,

da će Nemačka poslati oružje Ukrajini

and will spend an extra 100 billion dollars in building up its army.

i da će potrošiti dodatnih 100 milijardi dolara na izgradnju armije.

That reverses completely the principles

To u potpunosti izokreće principe

that have guided Germany's foreign policy

koji su vodili nemačku spoljnu

and security politics for decades.

i bezbednosnu politiku decenijama.

So that shift is happening exactly at this moment and very, very fast.

Dakle, taj preokret se dešava baš u ovom trenutku i veoma, veoma brzo.

YNH: Yeah.

JNH: Da.

And I think it's a good thing.

I smatram da je to dobro.

We need the Germans to ...

Potrebni su nam Nemci da...

I mean, they are now the leaders of Europe,

Mislim, oni su sad lideri Evrope,

certainly after Britain left in Brexit.

zasigurno nakon odlaska Britanije nakon Breksita.

And we need them to, in a way,

I potrebni su nam da se na neki način

let go of the past and be in the present.

oslobodimo prošlosti i živimo u sadašnjosti.

If there is really one country in the world

Ako postoji jedna država na svetu

that, as a Jew, as an Israeli, as a historian,

kojoj ja kao Jevrej, kao Izraelac, kao istoričar

that I trust it not to repeat the horrors of Nazism,

verujem da neće ponoviti užase nacizma,

that's Germany.

to je Nemačka.

BG: Yuval, I want to touch quickly on three things

BĐ: Juvale, želim da se brzo dotaknemo tri stvari

that have to do with the fact that this feels like

koje imaju veze sa činjenicom da ovo odaje utisak

the first truly interconnected war in many ways.

prvog usitinu globalno umreženog rata na razne načine.

The first, of course, is the basics,

Prvo, naravno, imamo osnove,

which is, on one side, you have a very ancient war --

a to je, s jedne strane, imamo izrazito drevni rat -

we have tanks and we have trenches and we have bombed buildings --

imamo tenkove, imamo rovove i imamo bombardovane zgrade -

and on the other, we have real-time visibility of everything

a s druge, imamo u realnom vremenu pregled svega

through cell phones and Twitter and TikTok and so on.

preko mobilnih telefona, Tvitera i Tiktoka, itd.

And you have written a lot about this tension

A ti si mnogo pisao o tenziji

between old ways and new tech.

između starih običaja i nove tehnologije.

What's the impact here?

Kako to utiče ovde?

YNH: First of all, we don't know everything that is happening.

JNH: Pre svega, mi ne znamo sve šta se dešava.

I mean, surprisingly, with all this TikTok and phones and everything,

Mislim, iznenađujuće, sa svim tim Tiktokom i telefonima,

so much is not known.

toliko toga je nepoznato.

So the fog of war is still there, and yes,

Dakle, ratna magla je i dalje tu, i da,

there is much more information, but information isn’t truth.

postoji mnogo više informacija, ali informacije nisu istina.

Lots of information is disinformation and fake news and so forth.

Gomila informacija su dezinformacije i lažne vesti i tako dalje.

And yes, it’s always like this;

I da, uvek je tako;

the new and the old, they come together.

novo i staro se spajaju.

You know, with all the talk about interconnectedness

Znate, uz svu priču o međupovezanosti

and living in cyberspace and all that,

i životu u sajber prostoru i sve to,

one of the most important technologies not just of this war,

jedna od najvažnijih tehnologija, ne samo u ovom ratu,

but of the last decade or two have been stone walls.

već i u poslednjoj deceniji ili dve su bili kameni zidovi.

It's Neolithic.

Radi se o neolitu.

Everybody is now building stone walls

Svi sada grade kamene zidove

in the era of Facebook and Google and all that.

u dobu Fejsbuka i Gugla i svega toga.

So the old and the new, they go together.

Dakle, staro i novo idu jedno uz drugo.

And it's ...

A radi se...

It is a new kind of war.

Radi se o novom vidu rata.

People are sitting at home in California or Australia,

Ljudi sede kod kuće u Kaliforniji ili Australiji

and they actively participate in the war,

i aktivno učestvuju u ratu,

not just by writing tweets,

ne samo pišući tvitove,

but by attacking websites or defending websites.

već napadajući internet stranice ili braneći internet stranice.

You know, in Spain, in the Civil War,

Znate, u španskom, u Građanskom ratu,

if you wanted to help fight fascism,

ukoliko ste želeli da pomognete u borbi protiv fašizma,

then you had to go to Spain and join the international brigade.

morali ste da odete u Španiju i da se pridružite međunarodnoj brigadi.

Now the international brigade is sitting at home in San Francisco

Sada međunarodna brigada sedi kod kuće u San Francisku,

and is still in some way part of the war.

a i dalje je na neki način deo rata.

So this is definitely new.

Ovo je definitivno novina.

BG: So indeed, just two days ago, Ukraine's deputy prime minister, I think,

BĐ: Uistinu, pre samo dva dana, ukrajinski vicepremijer, verujem,

Fedorov, announced via Telegram

Fedorov je najavio preko Telegrama

that he wanted to create a sort of volunteer cyber army.

kako želi da stvori nekavu sajber armiju volontera.

He invited software developers and hackers

Pozvao je softver developere i hakere

and other people with IT skills

i druge ljude sa IT veštinama

to somehow help Ukraine fight on the cyber front.

da nekako pomognu Ukrajini da se bori na sajber frontu.

And according to “Wired” magazine, in less than two days,

I prema časopisu Vajerd, za manje od dva dana,

175,000 people signed up.

175 000 ljudi se prijavilo.

So here is a defending nation that can kind of recruit almost overnight,

Dakle imamo naciju koja se brani koja gotovo preko noći može da regrutuje

175,000 volunteers to go to battle on his behalf.

175 000 volontera da se bore u njeno ime.

It's a very different kind of war.

Radi se o različitom vidu rata.

YNH: Yeah.

JNH: Da.

You know, every war brings it surprises.

Znate, svaki rat donosi iznenađenja.

Sometimes it's how everything is new,

Ponekad koliko je sve novo,

but sometimes it's also how everything is old.

ali ponekad takođe koliko je sve staro.

BG: So a few people in the chat and in the Q and A, have mentioned China,

BĐ: Nekoliko ljudi preko četa i u pitanjima je pomenulo Kinu,

which of course, is an important actor here,

koja je naravno važan akter ovde,

although for now is mostly an observer.

iako je zasad uglavnom posmatrač.

But China has a stated policy of opposing any act

Međutim, Kina ima utvrđenu politiku koja se protivi svakom činu

that violates territorial integrity.

koji narušava teritorijalni integritet.

So moving into Ukraine, of course, violates territorial integrity.

Invazija Ukrajine, naravno, narušava teritorijalni integritet.

And it also has a huge interest in a stable global economy

Kina takođe ima i ogroman interes od stabilne globalne ekonomije

and global system.

i globalnog sistema.

But then it needs to square this with the recent closeness with Russia.

Međutim, mora ovo da izmiri sa skorašnjom bliskošću sa Rusijom.

Xi Jinping and Putin met in Beijing before the Olympics, for example,

Si Đinping i Putin su se sreli u Pekingu pre Olimpijade, na primer,

and kind of had this message of friendship that went out to the world.

i nekako su poslali tu poruku o prijateljstvu koja je obišla svet.

How do you read China's position in this conflict?

Kako tumačiš poziciju Kine u ovom konfliktu?

YNH: I don't know,

JNH: Ne znam,

I mean, I'm not an expert on China,

mislim, nisam stručnjak za Kinu,

and I certainly can't just ...

i zasigurno ne mogu tek tako...

You know, just reading the news won't get you into the mindset,

Znate, puko iščitavanje vesti vas neće uvesti u stanje svesti,

into the real opinions and positions of the Chinese leadership.

u stvarne stavove i pozicije kineskog rukovodstva.

I hope that they take a responsible position.

Nadam se da će zauzeti odgovornu poziciju.

And act --

I da će delati -

because they are close to Russia,

jer su bliski sa Rusijom,

they are also close to Ukraine,

takođe su bliski s Ukrajinom,

but especially because they are close to Russia,

ali naročito jer su bliski sa Rusijom,

they have a lot of influence on Russia,

imaju mnogo uticaja na Rusiju,

I hope that they will be the responsible adults

nadam se da će biti odgovorne odrasle osobe

that will put down the flames of this war.

koje će ugasiti plamenove ovog rata.

They have a lot to lose

Imaju mnogo da izgube

from a breakdown of the global order.

od sloma globalnog poretka.

And I think they have a lot to win from the return of peace,

I smatram da imaju mnogo da dobiju od povratka mira,

including in terms of the gratitude of the international community.

uključujući i u smislu zahvalnosti međunarodne zajednice.

Now, whether they do it or not, this is with them.

Sad, hoće li tako postupiti, to je na njima.

I can't predict, but I hope so.

Ne mogu da predvidim, ali se nadam da hoće.

BG: You have mentioned before the several European and Western leaders

BĐ: Prethodno si pomenuo nekoliko evropskih i zapadnih vođa

that have gone to Moscow in the weeks before the invasion.

koji su posetili Moskvu u nedeljama pre invazije.

Varun in the chat, asks,

Varun pita preko četa:

"Is the Ukraine war a failure of diplomacy?"

„Da li je rat u Ukrajini diplomatski neuspeh?”

Could have ...

Da li se moglo...

Something different happened?

desiti nešto drugo?

YNH: Oh, you can understand it in two questions.

JNH: Možete to razumeti kroz dva pitanja.

Did diplomacy fail to stop the war?

Da li je diplomatija zakazala u sprečavanju rata?

Absolutely, everybody knows that.

Apsolutno, svi to znaju.

But is it a failure in the sense that a different diplomatic approach,

Da li se pak radi o neuspehu u smislu da li bi drugačiji diplomatski pristup,

some kind of other proposition, would have stopped the war?

nekakav drugačiji predlog, da li bi zaustavio rat?

I don't know, but it doesn't seem like it.

Ne znam, ali se ne čini da je tako.

I mean, looking at the events of the last few weeks,

Mislim, posmatrajući događaje poslednjih nekoliko sedmica,

it doesn't seem that Putin was really interested

ne čini se da je Putin bio naročito zainteresovan

in a diplomatic solution.

za diplomatska rešenja.

It seemed that he was really interested in the war,

Činilo se da je zaista bio zainteresovan za rat,

and I think, again, it goes back to this basic fantasy

i mislim, opet, sve se vrti oko te glavne fantazije

that if he really was concerned about the security situation of Russia,

gde da je on zaista bio zabrinut zbog bezbednosne situacije u Rusiji,

then there was no need to immediately invade Ukraine.

onda ne bi bilo potrebe da istog trena izvrši invaziju Ukrajine.

There was no immediate threat to Russia.

Nije bilo trenutne pretnje za Rusiju.

There was no discussion of right now, Ukraine joining NATO.

Trenutno se nisu vodili pregovori o pridruženju Ukrajine NATO-u.

There was no invasion army assembling in the Baltic states or in Poland.

Armija za invaziju se nije okupljala u baltičkim državama ili u Poljskoj.

Nothing.

Ništa.

Putin chose the moment to start this crisis.

Putin je odabrao trenutak da započne krizu.

So this is why it doesn't seem

Zato se ne čini

that it's really about the security concerns.

da se uistinu radi o bezbednosnom strahu.

It seems more about this very deep fantasy

Više se čini da se radi o toj izrazito velikoj fantaziji

of re-establishing the Russian Empire

o ponovnom uspostavljanju Ruskog carstva

and of denying the very existence of the Ukrainian nation.

i o negiranju samog postojanja ukrajinske nacije.

BG: So you live in the Middle East.

BĐ: Živiš na Bliskom istoku.

Someone else in the chat asks,

Neko drugi pita preko četa:

"What makes the situation so unique

„Zbog čega je ova situacija tako jedinstvena

compared to many other wars that are going on right now in the world?"

u poređenju sa drugim ratovima koji se trenutno vode u svetu?”

I would say, aside from the nuclear threat from Russia, but what else?

Dodao bih pored nuklearne pretnje od strane Rusije, ali šta još?

YNH: Several things.

JNH: Nekoliko stvari.

First of all,

Pre svega,

we have here, again, something we haven't seen since 1945,

ovde je na delu, opet, nešto što nismo videli od 1945,

which is a dominant power

a to je da vodeća sila

trying to basically obliterate from the map

pokušava da u suštini izbriše sa karte sveta

an independent country.

nezavisnu državu.

You know, when the US invaded Afghanistan

Znate, kada su SAD izvršile invaziju Avganistana

or when the US invaded Iraq,

ili kada su izvršile invaziju Iraka,

you can say a lot of things about it

možete štošta da kažete o tome

and criticize it in many ways.

i kritikujete na razne načine.

There was no question of the US annexing Iraq

Nije bilo ni govora o aneksiji Iraka od strane SAD-a

or turning Iraq into the 51st state of the United States.

ili o pretvaranju Iraka u 51. državu Sjedinjenih Država.

This is what is happening in Ukraine

A ovo se dešava u Ukrajini

under this pretext or this disguise,

pod ovim izgovorom ili maskom,

this is what's at stake.

o tome se radi.

The real aim is to annex Ukraine.

Istinski cilj je aneksija Ukrajine.

If this succeeds,

Ako to uspe,

again, it brings us back to the era of war.

opet, vraćamo se u razdoblje ratovanja.

I was struck by what the Kenyan representative

Bio sam zatečen onim što je kenijski predstavnik

to the UN Security Council said when this erupted.

u Savetu bezbednosti UN-a rekao nakon izbijanja sukoba.

The Kenyan representative spoke in the name of Kenya

Kenijski predstavnik je govorio u ime Kenije

and other African countries.

i drugih afričkih država.

And he told the Russians:

I rekao je Rusima:

Look, we also are the product of a post-imperial order.

vidite, i mi smo proizvod post-imperijalističkog poretka.

The same way the Soviet empire collapsed into different independent nations,

Kao što se Sovjetska imperija raspala na različite nezavisne nacije,

also, African nations came out of the collapse of European empires.

tako su i afričke nacije proizašle iz sloma evropskih imperija.

And the basic principle of African politics ever since then

A osnovno načelo afričke politike od tad

was that no matter what your objections

je bilo, bez obzira na negodovanja

to the borders you have inherited,

zbog granica koje smo nasledili,

keep the borders.

čuvajmo granice.

The borders are sacred

Granice su svetinja

because if we start invading neighboring countries because,

jer ako počnemo da napadamo susedne zemlje jer:

"Hey, this is part of our countries,

„Hej, ovo je deo naše države,

these people are part of our nation,"

ovi ljudi su deo naše nacije,”

there will not be an end to it.

tome neće biti kraja.

And if this now happens in Ukraine,

A ako se ovo sada dešava u Ukrajini,

it will be a blueprint for copycats all over the world.

radiće se o obrascu za imitatore širom sveta.

The other thing which is different is that we are talking about superpowers.

Druga stvar koja je različita je što govorimo o supersilama.

This is not a war between Israel and Hezbollah.

Ovo nije rat između Izraela i Hezbolaha.

This is potentially a war between Russia and NATO.

Ovo je potencijalno rat između Rusije i NATO-a.

And even leaving aside nuclear weapons,

A čak i ostavljajući po strani nuklearno oružje,

this completely destabilizes the peace of the entire world.

ovo u potpunosti destabilizuje mir u čitavom svetu.

And again, I go back again and again to the budgets.

I, opet, iznova i iznova se vraćam na budžete.

That if Germany doubles its defense budget,

Ukoliko Nemačka udvostruči svoj budžet za odbranu,

if Poland doubles its defense budget,

ukoliko i Poljska uradi isto,

this will spread to every country in the world,

ovo će se proširiti na sve zemlje sveta,

and this is terrible news.

a to su grozne vesti.

BG: So Yuval, I'm jumping from topic to topic

BĐ: Juvale, skačem s teme na temu

because I want to use the last few minutes

jer želim da iskoristim poslednjih nekoliko minuta

to ask a few questions from the audience.

i postavim nekoliko pitanja iz publike.

A few people are asking about the link to the climate crisis,

Nekoliko ljudi pita o vezi sa klimatskom krizom,

particularly when it relates to the energy flows.

naročito o odnosu prema toku energije.

Like, Europe is very dependent,

Evropa je veoma zavisna,

part of Europe, is very dependent on Russian oil and gas,

deo Evrope je veoma zavisan od ruske nafte i gasa,

which is, as far as we know, still flowing until today.

koji, koliko znamo, i danas slobodno protiču.

But could this crisis, in a sort of paradoxical way,

Da li bi pak ova kriza mogla, na nekakav paradoksalan način,

a bit like the pandemic, accelerate climate action,

pomalo kao pandemija, ubrzati klimatsku akciju,

accelerate renewables and and so on?

ubrzati obnovljive izvore i tako dalje?

YNH: This is the hope.

JNH: Tome se nadamo.

That Europe now realizes the danger

Da Evropa sada uviđa opasnost

and starts a green Manhattan Project

i da započinje zeleni projekat Menhetn

that kind of accelerates what already has been happening,

koji će nekako ubrzati ono što se već dešava,

but accelerates it,

ali da će to ubrzati,

the development of better energy sources,

razvoj boljih izvora energije,

better energy infrastructure,

bolju energetsku infrastrukturu,

which would release it from its dependence on oil and gas.

koja će je osloboditi od zavisnosti od nafte i gasa.

And it will actually undercut the dependence of the whole world

I zapravo će osujetiti zavisnost čitavog sveta

on oil and gas.

od nafte i gasa.

And this would be the best way to undermine the Putin regime

A to će biti najbolji način da se potkopa Putinov režim

and the Putin war machine,

i Putinova ratna mašinerija

because this is what Russia has,

jer to je ono što Rusija ima,

oil and gas.

naftu i gas.

That's it.

To je to.

When was the last time you bought anything made in Russia?

Kada ste poslednji put kupili nešto što je proizvedeno u Rusiji?

They have oil and gas,

Imaju naftu i gas,

and we know, you know, the curse of oil.

a poznato nam je, znate, naftno prokletstvo.

That oil is a source of riches,

Da je nafta izvor bogatstva,

but it’s also very often a support for dictatorships.

ali je takođe veoma često podrška diktaturama.

Because to enjoy the benefits of oil,

Jer da biste uživali naftne benefite,

you don't need to share it with your citizens.

ne morate da ih delite sa svojim građanima.

You don't need an open society,

Nije vam potrebno otvoreno društvo,

you don't need education, you just need to drill.

nije vam potrebno obrazovanje, samo treba da bušite.

So we see in many places

Zato vidimo na mnogim mestima

that oil and gas are actually the basis for dictatorships.

da su nafta i gas zapravo osnova za diktature.

If oil and gas, if the price drops,

Ukolio nafti i gasu padne cena,

if they become irrelevant,

ukoliko postanu nebitni,

it will not only undercut the finance,

to će ne samo da potkopa finansiranje,

the power of the Russian military machine,

snagu ruske vojne mašinerije,

it will also force Russia,

takođe će primorati Rusiju,

force Putin or the Russians to change their regime.

primorati Putina ili Ruse da promene svoj režim.

BG: OK, let me bring up a character

BĐ: U redu, dozvoli da pomenem lika

that everybody here in the chat seems to find quite heroic,

koga, čini se, svi u četu smatraju herojem,

and that's the Ukrainian president.

a to je ukrajinski predsednik.

So Ukraine kind of finds itself

Dakle, Ukrajina se zatekla

with a comedian who turned almost accidental president,

sa komičarem koji je postao gotovo igrom slučaja predsednik,

who turned now war president.

a koji je sada postao ratni predsednik.

But he has shown an impressive conduct in the last few weeks,

Međutim, pokazao je impresivno držanje u poslednjih nekoliko nedelja,

especially in the last few days,

naročito u poslednjih nekoliko dana,

which can be summarized in that response he gave to the US

što može da se sumira odgovorom koji je dao SAD-u

when they offered to kind of exfiltrate him

kada su ponudili da ga evakuišu

so he could lead a government in exile,

kako bi vodio vladu u egzilu,

he said, "I need ammunition. I don't need a ride."

rekao je: „Potrebna mi je municija, a ne prevoz.”

How would you look at President Zelenskyy?

Kako gledaš na predsednika Zelenskog?

YNH: His conduct has indeed been admirable,

JNH: Njegovo ponašanja je ustinu bilo za divljenje,

and he gives courage and inspiration not just to the Ukrainian people,

i on ohrabruje i inspiriše, ne samo Ukrajince,

but I think to everybody around the world.

već verujem svakoga širom sveta.

I think to a large extent

Smatram da je u velikoj meri

the swift and united reaction of Europe

brza i ujedinjena reakcija Evrope

with the sanctions and sending arms and so forth,

u vidu sankcija i slanja oružja itd,

to a large extent, this is also to the credit of Zelenskyy.

u velikoj meri, ovo je takođe zasluga Zelenskog.

That, you know,

Da, znate,

when politicians are also human beings.

političari su takođe ljudska bića.

And his direct appeal to them,

I ovaj direktni apel njima,

and you know, they met him many times in person

i, znate, lično su se sreli s njim više puta

and to see where he is now

i videti ga u ovoj poziciji

and the threat that not only him, but his family is also in.

i opasnost u kojoj su, ne samo on, već i njegova porodica.

And you know, they talk with him,

I, znate, razgovaraju s njim,

and he says, and they know, that this may be the last time they speak.

i on govori, a oni znaju da je možda poslednji put da razgovaraju.

He may be dead, murdered or bombed in an hour or in a day.

Mogao bi da umre, bude ubijen ili bombardovan za sat ili dan.

It really changes something.

To zaista nešto menja.

So in this sense, I think he made a huge personal contribution,

Stoga, u ovom smislu, smatram da je imao ogroman lični doprinos,

to not just the reaction in Ukraine, but around the world.

ne samo za reakciju Ukrajine, već i širom sveta.

BG: So Sam, who’s listening, asked this question:

BĐ: Dakle, Sem, koji nas sluša, upitao je sledeće:

"Can you provide some historical context

„Možeš li da pružiš istorijski kontekst

for the force and the meaning of economic and trade sanctions

u vezi sa snagom i značenjem ekonomskih i trgovinskih sankcija

at the level where they are currently imposed.

na nivou na kom su trenutno nametnute.

How have previous would-be empires, would-be aggressors, or aggressors,

Kako su prethodne nabeđene imperije, nabeđeni agresori ili agresori

been constrained by such isolations and such sanctions?"

sputani sličnim izolacijama i sličnim sankcijama?”

YNH: You know, what we need, again, to realize about Putin's Russia

JNH: Znate, nešto što moramo, opet, da shvatimo u vezi sa Putinovom Rusijom

is that it's not the Soviet Union.

je da to nije Sovjetski Savez.

It's a much smaller and weaker country.

Radi se o mnogo manjoj i slabijoj državi.

It's not like in the 1960s,

Nije kao 1960-ih

that in addition to the Soviet Union,

da pored Sovjetskog Saveza

you had the entire Soviet bloc around it.

imate celokupan sovjetski blok oko nje.

So it's easier in this sense to isolate it.

Pa je u ovom smislu lakše je izolovati.

It's much more vulnerable.

Daleko je ranjivija.

Again, does it mean that sanctions would work like a miracle

Opet, da li to znači da će sankcije da deluju kao čudo

and stop the tanks? No.

i zaustave tenkove? Ne.

It takes time.

Potrebno je vreme.

But I think that the West is in a position

Međutim, smatram da je zapad u poziciji

to impact Russia

da utiče na Rusiju

with these kinds of sanctions and isolation much more

ovim vidom sankcija i izolacije mnogo bolje

than, let's say, with the Soviet Union.

nego, recimo, u slučaju Sovjetskog Saveza.

And also the Russian people are different.

Takođe Rusi su se promenili.

The Russian people don't really want this war,

Ruski narod zaista ne želi ovaj rat,

even the people in the immediate circle around Putin.

čak ni ljudi iz Putinovog najužeg kruga.

You know, again,

Znate, opet,

I don't know them personally, from what it seems,

ne poznajem ih lično, iz onoga kako izgelda,

it's that these people, they like life.

radi se o tome da ovi ljudi vole život.

They have their yachts and they have their private airplanes

Imaju svoje jahte, imaju svoje privatne avione

and they have their house in London

i imaju svoje kuće u Londonu

and they have their chateau in France.

i imaju svoje šatoe u Francuskoj.

And they like the good life,

I oni vole dobar život

and they want to keep enjoying it.

i žele da i dalje uživaju u njemu.

So I think that the sanctions can be really effective.

Stoga smatram da bi sankcije mogle biti uistinu učinkovite.

What's the timetable?

Koji je rok?

That's ultimately in the hands of Putin.

To je naposletku u Putinovim rukama.

BG: So Gabriella asks: “I remember the war in former Yugoslavia

BĐ: Gabrijela pita: „Sećam se rata u bivšoj Jugoslaviji

and the atrocities there.

i užasa počinjenih tamo.

Is there any possibility that this war would escalate into such a situation?"

Postoji li mogućnost da bi ovaj rat mogao da eskalira u sličnu situaciju?”

I think an extension to that is:

Mislim da je nastavak tome:

Is this war kind of stirring dormant conflicts

da li ovaj rat uzburkava uspavane konflikte

like in the Balkans, for example,

poput onih na Balkanu, na primer,

or in the former Central Asian republic?

ili u bivšoj centralnoazijskoj republici?

YNH: Unfortunately, it can get to that level and even worse.

JNH: Nažalost, može doći do tog nivoa, pa čak i gore.

If you want an analogy, go to Syria.

Ako želite analogiju, pođite u Siriju.

You look at what happened in Homs.

Pogledajte šta se desilo u Homsu.

At what happened in Aleppo.

I šta se desilo u Alepu.

And this was done by Putin and his airplanes

A to su uradili Putin i njegovi avioni

and his minions in Syria.

i njegovi poslušnici u Siriji.

It's the same person behind it.

Ista osoba je iza toga.

And to think that, "No, no, no, this happened in the Middle East.

A smatrati da: „Ne, ne, ne, to se desilo na Bliskom istoku.

It can't happen in Europe."

Ne može se desiti u Evropi.”

No.

Ne.

We could see Kyiv in the same situation as Homs,

Možemo da vidimo Kijev u istoj situaciji kao Homs,

as the same situation as Aleppo,

u istoj istuaciji kao Alepo,

which would be catastrophic,

a to bi bilo katastrofalno,

and, again, would plant terrible seeds of hatred

i, opet, posejalo bi užasno seme mržnje

for years and decades.

za naredne godine i decenije.

So far, we've seen hundreds of people being killed,

Zasad smo videli na stotine ubijenih ljudi,

Ukrainian citizens being killed.

ubijenih ukrajinskih građana.

It could reach tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands.

Moglo bi doseći desetine hiljada, stotine hiljada.

So in this sense, it's extremely painful to contemplate.

Pa je u tom smislu izuzetno bolno posmatrati.

And this is why we need again and again

I zato moramo iznova i iznova

to urge the leaders to stop this war,

da pritiskamo vođe da zaustave ovaj rat,

and especially, again and again,

a naročito, iznova i iznova,

tell Putin,

da govorimo Putinu:

"You will not be able to absorb Ukraine into Russia.

„Nećeš biti u stanju da pripojiš Ukrajinu Rusiji.

They don't want it, they don't want you.

Oni to ne žele, oni te ne žele.

If you continue,

Ako nastaviš,

the only thing you will achieve is to create terrible hatred

jedino što ćeš da postigneš je stvaranje užasne mržnje

between Ukrainians and Russians for generations.

između Ukrajinaca i Rusa za generacije.

It doesn't have to be like that."

Ne mora da bude tako.”

BG: Yuval, let me finish with one question about your county.

BĐ: Juvale, dozvoli da završim pitanjem o tvojoj državi.

You are in Israel.

Ti si u Izraelu.

Israel has close ties with both Russia and Ukraine.

Izrael ima čvrste veze i sa Rusijom i Ukrajinom.

It's actually home of many Russian-born and many Ukrainian-born Jews.

Zapravo je dom mnogim Jevrejima koji su po poreklu Rusi i Ukrajinci.

How is the country reacting to this conflict,

Kako držva reaguje na ovaj konflikt,

I'm talking about the government, but also about the population?

govorim o vladi, ali i o populaciji?

YNH: Actually, I'm not the best person to ask.

JNH: Zapravo, nisam najbolja osoba za to pitanje.

I've been so, kind of, following what's happening around the world,

Nekako sam pratio šta se dešava širom sveta,

I didn't pay so much attention to what is happening right here.

nisam obratio naročitu pažnju na to šta se dešava ovde.

And even though I live here,

A iako živim ovde,

I'm not an expert on Israeli society or Israeli politics.

nisam stručnjak za izraelsko društvo ili izraelsku politiku.

Definitely, the sentiment in the street, in the social media is with Ukraine.

Definitivno, raspoloženje na ulici, na društvenim mrežama je na strani Ukrajine.

You see Ukrainian flags,

Vidite ukrajinske zastave,

you see on social media people putting Ukrainian flags

vidite na društvenim mrežama ljude kako kače ukrajinske zastave

on their accounts.

na svojim nalozima.

And another thing, so many people in Israel,

I još nešto, mnogi stanovnici Izraela

they came from the former Soviet Union.

su stigli iz bivšeg Sovjetskog Saveza.

And until now,

I sve do sad,

everybody was simply known as Russians.

svi su bili prosto poznati kao Rusi.

You know, even if you came from Azerbaijan or you came from Bukhara,

Znate, čak i ako ste došli iz Azerbejdžana ili ste došli iz Buhare,

you were a Russian.

bili ste Rusi.

And suddenly, "No, no, no, no, no.

A iznenada: „Ne, ne, ne, ne, ne.

I'm not Russian.

Nisam Rus.

I'm Ukrainian."

Ja sam Ukrajinac.”

And again, these seeds of hatred that Putin is planting,

I, opet, ovo seme mržnje koje Putin seje,

it's reaching also here.

stiže i ovde.

That suddenly people are saying no, Russian, Ukrainian,

Da iznenada ljudi govore ne, Rusi, Ukrajinci,

until a very short time ago, it's the same thing.

a sve do nedavno je bilo jedno te isto.

No, it's not the same thing.

Ne, nije jedno te isto.

So the shock waves are spreading.

Dakle, seizmički talasi se šire.

BG: Yuval, thank you for taking the time and being with us today

BĐ: Juvale, hvala što si odvojio vreme i bio sa nama danas

and sharing your knowledge and your views on the situation.

i što si podelio svoje znanje i svoje viđenje situacije.

Thank you very much.

Mnogo ti hvala.

YNH: Thank you and I hope for peace quickly.

JNH: Hvala vama i nadam se skorom miru.

BG: We all do. Thank you.

BĐ: Svi se nadamo. Hvala ti.

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