The War in Ukraine Could Change Everything | Yuval Noah Harari | TED

翻译人员: wu yuna 校对人员: suya f.

Bruno Giussani: We are at the end of day six of the war in Ukraine

布诺·古萨尼: 今天是 乌克兰战争的第六天，

or, more correctly, of the Russian invasion of Ukraine,

或者更准确的说，是由 俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京

launched on February 24 by President Vladimir Putin.

于2月24日发动的针对 乌克兰的侵略战的第六天。

We are all shocked and saddened by the events

我们对这起事件与其造成的痛苦

and by the human suffering they are causing.

感到震惊和悲痛。

And as we speak, really,

在我们这场演讲的同时，

a Russian military convoy is headed towards Kyiv,

一支俄罗斯军队正向基埔驶去，

other Ukrainian cities are being bombarded,

其他乌克兰的城市也正在被轰炸,

half a million Ukrainians have already fled to neighboring countries

几十万的乌克兰市民已经逃亡去了邻国，

and much more.

以及更多灾难。

It's still early days,

去预测这场战乱会如何发展

and it's difficult to predict how the situation will evolve

还为时太早，

even just in the next few hours.

即使是接下来几个小时 会发生什么，也难以预测。

But this is a war that should concern everyone, everywhere.

但是这场战争， 应该引起各国人民的关注。

And so today, in this TED Membership conversation,

所以在今天这场TED会员演讲中，

we want to try to give it a broader context with our guest,

我希望和我的嘉宾一起给大家 提供一个更全面的背景信息，

historian and author, Yuval Noah Harari.

接下来欢迎历史学家及作者，

Yuval, welcome.

尤瓦尔·诺阿·哈拉里。

Yuval Noah Harari: Hello.

尤瓦尔·诺阿·哈拉里: 大家好，

Thank you for inviting me.

感谢邀请我来参加这场演讲。

BG: I want to start from Ukraine itself and its 42 million people

BG：我希望我们从 乌克兰和其4200万人民，

and its particular place between the East and the West.

以及其处在东西方间独特的地理位置 来开始我们今天的话题。

What do we need to know about Ukraine

关于乌克兰，我们有什么需要了解的，

to understand this war and what's at stake?

才能去理解这场战争， 以及什么正在危机之中？

YNH: The most crucial thing to know is that Ukrainians are not Russians,

YNH：最重要的一点是明白， 乌克兰人不是俄罗人，

and that Ukraine is an ancient, independent nation.

乌克兰是一个古老的、独立自主的国家。

Ukraine has a history of more than a thousand years.

乌克兰拥有上千年历史。

Kyiv was a major metropolis and cultural center

基埔作为一个重要的 文化中心和大都市时，

when Moscow was not even a village.

莫斯科连一个小村庄都不是。

For most of these thousand years Kyiv was not ruled by Moscow.

在这几千年的大部分时间里， 基辅都没有被莫斯科治。

They were not part of the same political entity.

他们也不属于同一个政治主体。

For centuries, Kyiv was looking westwards

几个世纪以来， 基辅一直把目光投向西方

and was a part of a union with Lithuania and Poland

且是立陶宛和波兰联盟的一部分，

until it was eventually conquered and absorbed by the Russian Empire,

直到它最终被由沙皇统治的俄罗斯帝国

by the czarist empire.

征服并吞并。

But even after that,

但即使是在那之后，

Ukrainians remained a separate people to a large extent,

乌克兰人在很大程度上 仍然是一个独立的民族，

and it's important to know that

这是十分重要的一点，

because this is really what is at stake in this war.

也是这场战争的危机之点。

The key issue of the war,

至少对于普京来说，

at least for President Putin,

这场战争的关键是

is whether Ukraine is an independent nation,

乌克兰是否是一个独立的国家，

whether it is a nation at all.

或者说它究竟是不是一个国家。

He has this fantasy that Ukraine isn't a nation,

在他的幻想里面， 乌克兰并不是一个国家，

that Ukraine is just a part of Russia,

乌克兰只是俄罗斯的一部分，

that Ukrainians are Russians.

乌克兰人就是俄罗斯人。

In his fantasy,

在他的幻想里，

Ukrainians are Russians that want to be back in the fold of Mother Russia,

乌克兰人是热切想回归 俄罗斯怀抱的俄罗斯人，

and that the only ones preventing it is a very small gang at the top,

而唯一阻止这一切发生的人 只是上层的一个非常小的、

which he portrays as Nazis,

被他描绘为纳粹的帮派，

even if the president is Jewish; but OK, a Nazi Jew.

虽然乌克兰的总统是犹太人； 但好吧，一个犹太人纳粹。

And his belief was, at least,

他的信念是，至少，

that he just needs to invade,

只要他入侵，

Zelenskyy will flee,

乌克兰总统泽连斯基 就会逃离乌克兰，

the government will collapse,

政府就会瓦解，

the army would lay down its arms,

军队就会投降，

and the Ukrainian people would welcome the Russian liberators,

然后乌克兰人民会撒花来欢迎

throwing flowers on them.

俄罗斯的解放者们。

And this fantasy has been shattered already.

然而这个幻想已经破灭了，

Zelenskyy hasn’t fled,

泽连斯基并没有逃跑，

the Ukrainian army is fighting.

乌克兰军队也仍在反抗。

And the Ukrainian people is not throwing flowers on the Russian tanks,

乌克兰人民也并没有 向俄罗斯的坦克抛花，

it's throwing Molotov cocktails.

迎接他们的反而是燃烧瓶。

BG: So let's unpack that

BG：所以让我们来详细地

and maybe take the different pieces one way one.

逐一展开这些话题。

So Ukraine has a long history of being dominated and occupied.

乌克兰有被统治和占领的悠久历史，

You mentioned the czar, but also the Soviet Union,

你提到了沙皇，但其实还有苏联

Hitler's armies.

和希特勒的军队。

It also has a long history of mistrust of authority and of resistance,

它也有不信任权威 和抵抗的悠久历史，

which goes some way to explain the current strong resistance

这也就解释了

that the Russians are encountering.

为什么现在俄罗斯面临的抵抗这么大。

Anne Applebaum, the journalist, even suggests that this mistrust,

记者Anne Applebaum 甚至暗示了

this resistance to authority,

这种对权威的不信任和抵抗，

is the very essence of Ukraine-ness, do you agree?

其实正是乌克兰的精华。 您同意吗？

YNH: We did see in the last 30 years Ukrainians twice rising in revolt

YNH：在过去30年里， 我们确实看到乌克兰人

when there was a danger

在受到独裁政权建立的威胁时

of an authoritarian regime being established --

两次发生起义 ——

once in 2004, once in 2013.

一次在2004年， 另一次在2013年。

And when I was in Kyiv a few years ago,

我前几年前在基埔时，

what really struck me was this very strong feeling

很强烈感受到那种对独立和民主的渴望

of the desire for independence and for democracy.

这给我留下了深刻的印象。

And I remember walking around this museum

我还记得在我参观

of the Revolution of 2013-2014

记载了2013-2014 起义事件的博物馆时，

and seeing these images, like these two elderly women

看到了一组照片。 两个老妇人

who were bringing sandwiches to the demonstrators,

给游行示威者、为民主奋斗的战士们

to the fighters.

递上三明治的照片。

They couldn’t throw stones and they couldn’t do anything else,

她们无法向示威者那样扔石头 或者做任何其他的事情，

so they prepared sandwiches

于是只能准备好三明治

and brought this huge tray full of sandwiches

放进一个巨大的托盘里

to the demonstrators.

带去给示威者们。

And this, yes, this is the kind of spirit

而正是这种精神，

that inspires not just the Ukrainians

不光激发着乌克兰人，

but everybody who is now watching what is happening there.

也激发着正在关注这场战争的人。

BG: Help me understand the actual nature of the threat here

BG：请再给我们讲解下 俄罗斯入侵乌克兰

in terms of Russia moving into Ukraine.

本质上的威胁。

So in your last book, when you write about Russia,

在您上一本书里， 您是这样描述俄罗斯模式的：

you describe the Russian model as: “not a coherent political ideology,

“它不是一种连贯的政治意识形态，

but rather a sort of practice of monopolizing power and wealth

而是顶层一小部分人

by a small group at the top."

一种垄断权力和财富的行为。”

But then, in his actions against Ukraine,

但是，在普京针对乌克兰的行动中，

Putin in the last few weeks seems to move very much by an ideology,

普京在过去几周 似乎很受意识形态的影响，

an ideology of empire, of denial of Ukraine's right to exist,

像您之前所谈到过，

as you mention.

一种否认乌克兰存在 权利的帝国意识形态。

What has changed in the four years since you wrote that book?

在写完那本书后的四年里， 有什么改变的事情吗？

YNH: The imperial dream was always there,

YNH：帝国梦想从始至终都在那里，

but you know, empires are often the creation

但你知道的，帝国经常是顶层

of a very small gang of people at the top.

那非常小的团伙创造出的作品。

I don’t think the Russian people [are] interested in this war.

我不认为俄罗斯人民 对这场战争感兴趣。

I don't think that the Russian people want to conquer Ukraine

我不认为俄罗斯的人民 想要征服乌克兰

or to slaughter the citizens of Kyiv.

或者屠杀基辅的公民。

It's all coming from the top.

一切都来自顶层。

So there is no change there.

所以什么都没有改变。

I mean, when you look at the Soviet Union,

我的意思是， 当你看到苏联的时候，

you can say that there was this mass ideology,

你可以说有一种被很大比例 或是部分比例人口

which was shared by a large proportion, or some proportion, of the population.

共同拥护的大众意识形态。

You don't see this now.

现在你看不到这样的情况了。

You know, Russia is a very rich country,

你也知道，俄罗斯是个非常富有的国家，

rich in resources,

资源丰富，

but most people are very poor.

但是大多数人非常穷。

Their standard of living is very, very low

他们的生活水平非常、非常低

because all the wealth and power is kind of sucked

因为所有的财富与权利

by the people at the top,

都被顶层的人给吸取了，

and very little is left for everybody else.

而只有很小的一部分分给其他的人。

So I don't think it's a society

所以我不认为这是个

where the masses are part of this kind of ideological project.

将大众作为意识形态一部分的社会。

They're being ruled from the top.

他们被上层统治着。

And you have this classic imperial situation,

你也清楚这样经典帝国情景：

when the emperor,

控制着世界最大国家的帝王

which controls the largest country in the world,

feels that, "Hey, this is not enough.

感觉到：“嘿，这还不够，

I need more."

我要更多。”

And sends his army to capture,

然后派遣他的军队去占领，

to extend the empire.

去扩张他的帝国。

BG: I said at the beginning

BG：我在前面开头说过

that it's difficult, of course, to make predictions.

想要预测不容易

But yesterday, you published an article in "The Guardian"

但就在昨天， 您在《卫报》发表了一篇文章

titled: “Why Putin has already lost this war.”

标题是：“为什么普京 已经输了这场战争。”

Please explain.

请您解释一下。

YNH: Well, one thing should be very clear.

YNH：有一件事我想说明：

I don't mean to say

我并不是说

that he's going to suffer an immediate military defeat.

他将立即兵败。

He definitely has the military power to conquer Kyiv

他绝对拥有征服基辅

and perhaps the whole of Ukraine.

或许整个乌克兰的军事实力。

Unfortunately, we might see this.

我们可能将不幸地见证此事。

But his long-term goal,

可他长期的目标，

the whole rationale of the war,

这场战争的逻辑与依据，

is to deny the existence of the Ukrainian nation

是否认乌克兰作为一个国家的存在

and to absorb it into Russia.

并将其并入俄罗斯。

And to do that, it's not enough to conquer Ukraine.

想那样做，仅仅征服乌克兰是不够的，

You also need to hold it.

你也必须掌握住乌克兰。

And it's all based on this fantasy, on this gamble,

这一切的根本是 乌克兰人民会同意这件事

that most of the population in Ukraine would agree to this,

甚至欢迎这件事

would even welcome this.

的幻想和赌局。

And we already know that it's not true.

而我们已经知道这不是事实。

That the Ukrainians are a very real nation;

乌克兰是一个 非常真实的国家；

they are fiercely independent;

他们真真的独立；

they don’t want to be part of Russia;

他们不想成为俄罗斯的一部分；

they will fight like hell.

他们将拼命战斗。

And in the long-run, again, you can conquer a country,

再次，长期来说， 你可以征服一个国家，

But as the Russians learned in Afghanistan,

但就像俄国人在阿富汗学到那样，

as the Americans learned also in Afghanistan, also in Iraq,

像美国人也在阿富汗 与伊拉克学到那样，

it's much harder to hold a country.

掌握一个国家要难得许多。

And again, the big question mark before the war was always this.

这总是战前的一个重大问题。

Before the war started, many things were already known.

在战争开始之前， 许多事情是早知道的。

Everybody knew that the Russian army is much stronger than the Ukrainian Army.

众所皆知，俄罗斯的军队 比乌克兰的军队强。

Everybody knew that NATO will not send armed forces into Ukraine,

众所皆知，北约不会 向乌克兰派遣武装部队，

troops into Ukraine.

将士兵送入乌克兰。

Everybody knew that the West, the Europeans, would be hesitant

众所皆知，西方、欧洲将会在

about imposing too strict a sanction regime

对俄实行过于严苛的经济制裁上犹豫，

for fear of being hurt by it themselves.

因为害怕被反伤。

And this was the basis for Putin's war plan.

这就是普京的战争计划的出发点。

But there was one big unknown.

但有一个未知数，

Nobody could say for sure how the Ukrainian people would react.

没有人能够准确地预测 乌克兰人民的反应。

And there was always the option

而总有一个可能，

that maybe Putin's fantasy would come true.

也许普京的幻想会成真。

Maybe the Russians will march in,

也许俄罗斯士兵会胜利进军，

Zelenskyy would flee,

泽连斯基会逃跑，

maybe the Ukrainian army will just capitulate

也许乌克兰的军队会简单地投降，

and the population would not do much.

然后人们大多无动于衷。

This was always an option.

这一直是选项之一。

And now we know this was just fantasy.

现在我们知道这只是幻想。

Now we know that the Ukrainians are fighting, they will fight.

现在我们知道乌克兰正在战斗， 他们将进行斗争。

And this derails the whole rationale of Putin’s war.

这将打乱普京战争的整个底层逻辑。

Because you can conquer the country, maybe,

因为你也许可以征服一个国家，

but you won't be able to absorb Ukraine back into Russia.

但你没有办法将乌克兰并入俄罗斯。

The only thing he's accomplishing,

他正在完成的唯一事情是，

he is planting seeds of hatred

在每个乌克兰人的心中

in the hearts of every Ukrainian.

种下仇恨的种子。

Every Ukrainian being killed,

每个被杀害的乌克兰人，

every day this war continues is more seeds of hatred

这场战争持续的每一天， 是更多的、

that may last for generations.

也许会延续无数代的仇恨的种子。

Ukrainians and Russians didn't hate each other before Putin.

在普京之前，乌克兰人 与俄罗斯人并不相恨。

They’re siblings.

他们是兄弟姐妹。

Now he's making them enemies.

现在他让他们反目成仇。

And if he continues, this will be his legacy.

如果他继续， 这将成为他的遗产。

BG: We're going to talk a bit about that again later but, you know,

BG：我们稍后会再谈一谈 这个问题但是，你知道

at the same time, Putin needs a victory, right?

普京同时需要一个胜利对吗？

The cost, the human, economic, political cost of this war,

这场战争的代价， 伤亡与经济上，

not even a week in, is already astronomical.

不到一周就已经接近于天文数字。

So to justify it and also to remain, by the way,

为了合理化以及

a viable leader at the head of Russia,

保持作为俄罗斯领袖的地位，

Putin needs to win, and even win convincingly.

普京必须获得胜利， 甚至必须赢得令人信服。

So how do we square these things?

那我们如何解决这些问题呢？

YNH: I don't know.

YNH：我不知道。

I mean, the fact that you need to win doesn't mean that you can win.

你必须的赢的事实 并不代表你真的能赢。

Lots of political leaders need to win, and sometimes they lose.

许多政治领导人需要赢， 而他们有时候会输。

He could stop the war, declare that he won,

他可以停止战争， 并宣告他的胜利，

and say that recognizing Luhansk and Donetsk by the Russians

说承认占领卢甘斯克和顿涅茨克

is what he really wanted all along, and he achieved this.

是他自始至终的目标， 而他达成了这个目标。

Maybe they cobble this agreement, or I don’t know.

也许他们拼凑出了这个协议， 我不知道。

This is the job of politicians, I'm not a politician.

这是政治家的工作， 我不是政治家。

But I can tell you that I hope, for the sake of everybody --

但我可以告诉你， 为大家——乌克兰人、

Ukrainians, Russians and the whole of humanity --

俄罗斯人、与全人类—— 着想，我希望

that this war stops immediately.

这场战争立即停火。

Because if it doesn't,

因为如果不停止，

it's not only the Ukrainians and the Russians

受苦的不仅仅是

that will suffer terribly.

乌克兰人与俄罗斯人。

Everybody will suffer terribly if this war continues.

如果这场战争持续， 大家都会遭殃。

BG: Explain why.

BG：请解释为什么。

YNH: Because of the shock waves destabilizing the whole world.

YNH：因为这场战争的冲击波 正在动摇整个世界。

Let’s start with the bottom line:

先从底线开始：

budgets.

预算。

We have been living in an amazing era of peace in the last few decades.

在这几十年里，我们生活在一个 惊奇的和平时代。

And it wasn't some kind of hippie fantasy.

而且这不是什么嬉皮士的幻想。

You saw it in the bottom line.

你在底线里看到了。

You saw it in the budgets.

你在预算里看到了。

In Europe, in the European Union,

在欧洲，在欧盟，

the average defense budget of EU members

欧盟成员的平均国防开支

was around three percent of government budget.

大约是政府百分之三的预算。

And that's a historical miracle, almost.

这几乎是一个历史奇迹。

For most of history,

在历史的大部分时代里，

the budget of kings and emperors and sultans, like 50 percent,

国王、皇帝、苏丹的预算 大约百分之五十左右，

80 percent goes to war, goes to the army.

百分之八十拨给战争，拨给军队。

In Europe, it’s just three percent.

在欧洲，仅仅是百分之三。

In the whole world, the average is about six percent, I think,

在全世界，平均大概是百分之六，

fact-check me on this, but this is the figure that I know,

请核查一下这个事实， 但这是我所知道的数目，

six percent.

百分之六。

What we saw already within a few days,

在这几天里我们看到

Germany doubles its military budget in a day.

德国的军事预算在一天内翻了两倍。

And I'm not against it.

而我也不反对。

Given what they are facing, it's reasonable.

鉴于他们所面临的情况， 这是合理的。

For the Germans, for the Poles,

德国人、波兰人、

for all of Europe to double their budgets.

欧洲所有国家增加预算都是合理的。

And you see other countries around the world doing the same thing.

全世界其他国家 也正在做同一件事情。

But this is, you know, a race to the bottom.

但你知道的，这是件 向着深渊前进的事情。

When they double their budgets,

当他们将预算翻倍，

other countries look and feel insecure and double their budgets,

其他国家观望并产生不安全感， 也将他们的国防预算翻倍。

so they have to double them again and triple them.

这样各国不得不再将预算翻倍， 或是翻三倍，

And the money that should go to health care,

所有应该拨给医疗保健的钱，

that should go to education,

拨给教育的钱，

that should go to fight climate change,

拨给应对气候变化的钱

this money will now go to tanks, to missiles, to fighting wars.

现在将用于坦克、导弹与战争上。

So there is less health care for everybody,

给每个人的医疗保健将减少，

and there is maybe no solution to climate change

气候变化可能将没有解决的方法，

because the money goes to tanks.

因为所有的资金都在坦克上。

And in this way, even if you live in Australia,

这样一来， 即使你居住在澳大利亚，

even if you live in Brazil,

即使你居住在巴西，

you will feel the repercussions of this war in less health care,

这场战争的间接后果 将以减少的医疗保健，

in a deteriorating ecological crisis,

持续恶化的生态危机

in many other things.

以许多其他的形态波及到你。

Again, another very central question is technology.

另一个核心问题是技术。

We are on the verge, we are already in the middle, actually,

我们正濒临， 其实我们已经正在经历

of new technological arms races in fields like artificial intelligence.

一场新的技术军备竞赛， 例如在人工智能的领域内。

And we need global agreement about how to regulate AI

我们需要一个关于如何 管制人工智能的全球协议

and to prevent the worst scenarios.

来阻止最糟糕的情况。

How can we get a global agreement on AI

当一场新的冷战、新的热战发生，

when you have a new cold war, a new hot war?

我们如何在人工智能上达成全球协议呢？

So in this field, to all hopes

所以在这个领域， 如果这场战争继续，

of stopping the AI arms race will go up in smoke if this war continues.

所有阻止人工智能军备竞赛 的希望将灰飞烟灭。

So again, everybody around the world will feel the consequences in many ways.

世界各地的人将以各种方式 间接地感觉到后果。

This is much, much bigger than just another regional conflict.

这比一场地区冲突要大得多。

BG: If one of Putin's goals here is to divide Europe,

BG：如果普京的其中 一个目标是分割欧洲，

to weaken the transatlantic alliance

弱化跨大西洋联盟

and the global liberal order,

和全球自由主义秩序，

he seems to kind of accidentally have revitalized all of them in a way.

在某种意义上， 他似乎意外地重振了他们。

US-EU relations have never been so close in many years.

美国与欧盟的关系 在许多年里从未如此亲密。

And so how do you read that?

你如何看待此事？

YNH: Well, again, in this sense, he also lost the war.

YNH：在这个意义上， 他输了这场战争。

If his aim was to divide Europe, to divide NATO,

如果他的目标是 分割欧洲，分割北约，

he's achieved exactly the opposite.

那他达成的成果恰恰相反。

I mean, I was amazed by how quick,

我的意思是，我对欧洲如何迅速、

how strong and how unanimous the European reaction was.

强力与一致地作出反应感到惊叹。

I think the Europeans surprised themselves.

我想欧洲人可能都把自己都惊叹到了。

You even see countries like Finland and Sweden sending arms to Ukraine

你甚至可以看到像芬兰、瑞典 这样的国家向乌克兰输送武器。

and closing their airspace.

并关闭他们的领空。

They didn't even do it in the Cold War.

在冷战时期他们都没这么做。

It's really amazing to see it.

看到这些真的很惊叹。

I think another very important thing is what has been dividing the West

还有一点非常重要， 就是过去几年

over the several years now,

一直在分裂西方的——

it’s what people term the “culture war”.

人们称之为——“文化战争”。

The culture war between left and right, between conservatives and liberals.

这场关于向左还是向右， 自由还是保守的“文化战争”。

And I think this war can be an opportunity

我想乌克兰战争可以成为

to end the culture war within the West,

结束西方内部“文化战争”，

to make peace in the culture war.

达成内部和解的契机。

First of all, because you suddenly realize we are all in this together.

首先，因为你突然意识到， 我们都在这场冲突其中。

There are much bigger things in the world

世界上有比西方民主内部

than these arguments between left and right

左翼右翼之争

within the Western democracies.

更重大的事情。

And it's a reminder that we need to stand united

这也提醒我们， 我们必须齐心协力

to protect Western liberal democracies.

保护西方的自由民主。

But it's deeper than that.

但还有更深层次的东西。

Much of the argument between left and right

大部分左翼右翼的争论焦点

seemed to be in terms of a contradiction

似乎是一种自由主义

between liberalism and nationalism.

与民族主义的矛盾。

Like, you need to choose.

就是你需要选择，

And the right goes with nationalism,

右翼就是民族主义，

and the left goes more liberalism.

左翼就是更多的自由主义。

And Ukraine is a reminder that no, the two actually go together.

而乌克兰冲突就提醒我们， 两者实际上是统一的。

Historically, nationalism and liberalism are not opposites.

历史上，民族主义 与自由主义不是对立的。

They are not enemies.

它们不是敌人，

They are friends, they go together.

而是朋友，是并行的。

They meet around the central value of freedom, of liberty.

它们都围绕着自由与独立的核心价值。

And to see a nation fighting for its survival,

你可以看到一个国家为自己的生存而战，

fighting for its freedom,

为自己的自由而战，

you see it on Fox News or you see it in CNN.

不论是在福克斯新闻 还是在CNN看到。

And yes, they tell the story a little differently,

确实，他们的讲述有点不同，

but they suddenly see the same reality.

但是他们突然看到了相同的事实，

And they find common ground.

他们找到了共同的立场。

And the common ground is to understand

这一立场就是明确

that nationalism is not about hating minorities or hating foreigners,

民族主义不是仇恨少数人， 或是仇恨外国人，

it's about loving your compatriots,

而是关爱你的同胞，

and reaching a peaceful agreement

并在如何运作这个国家方面

about how we want to run our country together.

和平地达成一个的共识。

And I hope that seeing what is happening

我希望目睹现在发生的事情，

would help to end the culture war in the West.

能有助于西方“文化战争”的终结。

And if this happens, we don't need to worry about anything.

如果这发生，我们便不必担心任何事情。

You know, when you look at the real power balance,

你知道，如果你留心到 真正的力量对比，

if the Europeans stick together,

如果欧洲团结起来，

if the Americans and the Europeans stick together

如果美国与欧洲团结起来，

and stop this culture war and stop tearing themselves apart,

停止这场“文化战争”， 停止撕裂自我，

they have absolutely nothing to fear -- the Russians or anybody else.

他们就没有任何可以惧怕的了， 不论是俄罗斯还是其他人。

BG: I'm going to ask you a question later about the stories the West tells itself,

BG：我将在之后问及 关于西方叙述自己的故事的问题。

but let me zoom out for a second and get a larger perspective.

但让我们先扩展， 从一个更大的视角出发。

You wrote another essay last week in “The Economist”,

上周你在《经济学人》 发布了另一篇文章，

and you argue that what's at stake in Ukraine is, and I quote you,

并在其中称——我引用一下—— “在乌克兰，处在危机之中的是

"the direction of human history"

‘人类历史的方向’”，

because it puts at risk what you call

因为这将战争的减少，

the greatest political and moral achievement of modern civilization,

也就是你所称的

“现代文明最伟大的政治与道德成就”，

which is the decline of war.

推向了危机。

So now we are back in a war and potentially afterwards

所以现在我们回到了一场战争当中，

into a new form of cold war or hot war,

并可能在将来， 进入一场冷战或热战当中，

but hopefully not.

当然希望别是。

Elaborate about that essay you wrote.

请展开讲述一下你写的这篇文章。

YNH: Yeah, I mean, some people think

嗯，有些人会认为

that all this talk about the decline of war

这些关于战争减少的言论

was always just a fantasy.

总是些幻想。

But ...

但是，

Again, you look at the statistics.

你可以看看这些数据。

Since 1945,

自1945年来，

there has not been a single clash between superpowers,

超级大国之间的直接冲突 一次都没有。

whereas previously in history,

但在之前，

this was, you know, the basic stuff of history.

这可是历史里常见的内容。

Since 1945,

自1945年来，

not a single internationally recognized country

没有一个国际上承认的国家

was wiped off the map by external invasion.

因外来侵略而灭亡。

This was the common thing in history.

这在历史上可是很常见的。

Until then and then it stopped.

直到那时，这便停止了。

This is an amazing achievement,

这是一个伟大的成就，

which is the basis for everything we have,

这是我们现有一切的基础，

for our medical services,

是医疗服务的基础，

for education system,

是教育系统的基础。

and this is all now in jeopardy.

而这些都处在危机之中。

Because this era of peace,

因为这样一个和平的时代，

it wasn't the result of some miracle.

不是一些奇迹的结果，

It wasn't the result of a change in the laws of nature.

不是自然法则改变的结果，

It was humans making better decisions and building better institutions,

而是人类做出了更好的选择， 建设起来更好的组织

which means also

但这也意味着，

that there is no guarantee for the future.

没有了对未来的保证。

If humans, some humans, start making bad decisions

如果人类，某些人类， 开始做一些不好的决定，

and start destroying the institutions that kept the peace,

开始破坏那些维护着和平的机构，

then we will be back in the era of war

那么我们将回到那个战争的时代，

with budgets, military budgets going to 20, 30, 40 percent.

军事预算将增加到预算的 20%，30%，40%。

It can happen.

这是可以发生的。

It's in our hands.

这由我们掌控。

And I'll just say one more thing,

我再说一点，

When, not just me, but other scholars like Steven Pinker and others,

当不只是我，还有像 Steven Pinker一样的其他学者，

talked about the era of peace,

谈及和平的时代时，

some people understood it as kind of encouraging complacency.

有些人将其理解成 一种对安于现状的鼓励，

That, oh, we don't need to worry about anything.

就是说，噢， 我们不需要担心任何事情。

No, I mean, the message was really the opposite.

不是的，他们的意思恰恰相反。

It was a message of responsibility.

他们的意思在于责任。

If you think that there is no era of peace in history,

如果你认为历史上从未有和平的时代，

it's always war, it's always the jungle,

从来都是战争，从来都是丛林法则，

there is a constant level of violence in nature,

自然中有一定程度的 恒定的暴力存在，

then this basically means

那么这基本上是说，

that there is no point struggling for peace

为和平斗争是没必要的，

and there is no responsibility on leaders like Putin

像普京一样的领导人 不需要负任何责任，

because you can't blame Putin for the war.

因为你不能把战争的责任推向普京，

It's just a law of nature that there are wars.

战争只是自然法则。

When you realize, no, humans are able to decrease the level of violence,

当你意识到，不， 人类是有能力减少暴力时

then it should make us much more responsible.

那么这应该让我们 在这上面更具有责任。

And it should also make us understand

这也应该让我们明白，

that the war in Ukraine now, it’s not a natural disaster.

在乌克兰进行的这场战争， 不是一场自然灾害。

It’s a man-made disaster, and a single man.

这是人为的灾害， 一人为之的。

It's not the Russian people who want this war.

不是俄罗斯人民想要这场战争，

There's really just a single person

其实只有一个人，

who, by his decisions,

通过他自己的决策，

created this tragedy.

制造了这场惨剧。

BG: So one of the things that has come back

BG：其中有一个自前几周、前几个月

in the last weeks and months is the nuclear threat.

回归的问题就是核威胁。

It's moved back into the center of political and strategic considerations.

他重回政治与战略考量的核心。

Putin has talked about it several times,

普京已经多次提及它，

the other day he ordered Russia's nuclear forces on a higher alert status.

先前，他命令俄罗斯的核部队 进入高度戒备状态。

President Zelenskyy himself at the Munich Security Conference

在慕尼黑安全会议上， 泽连斯基总统

essentially said that Ukraine had made a mistake

尤其提到，乌克兰犯下了

abandoning the nuclear weapons it had inherited from the Soviet Union.

放弃从前苏联继承 下来的核武器的错误。

That's a statement that I suspect many countries are pondering.

我想这则发言引起了许多国家的关切。

What's your thinking about the return of the nuclear threat?

您对核威胁的回归有什么看法吗？

YNH: It's extremely frightening.

YNH：这真的非常可怕。

You know, it's like it's almost Freudian,

这真的很令人神经紧绷，

it's the return of the repressed.

这是曾受压制着的核武的回归。

We thought that, oh, nuclear weapons, yes,

我们曾想，哦，核武器，

there was something about that in the 1960s

二十世纪六十年代的时候， 曾经有些事情是关于它的，

with the Cuban Missile Crisis and Dr. Strangelove.

比方说古巴导弹危机 以及电影Dr. Strangelove。

But no, it's here.

但不是的， 核武器就在那里。

And, you know, it took just a few days

你也知道，只需要几天

of difficulties on the battlefield

在战场上的困境，

for suddenly --

便会突然......

I mean, I'm watching television, like, the news

我的意思是， 我看电视新闻时，

and you have these experts explaining to people

会看到一些专家向人们解释

what different nuclear weapons will do to this city or to this country.

核武器会对他们的城市， 或这个国家带去什么。

It rushed back in.

这个热点回来了。

So, you know, nuclear weapons are --

所以你知道，核武器

in a way they also, until now, preserved the peace of the world.

在某种意义上，直到现在， 它们也在维护着这个世界的和平。

I belong to the school of thought that if it was not for nuclear weapons,

我相信当时如果没有核武器，

we would have had the Third World War

苏联与美国和北约之间

between the Soviet Union and the United States and NATO

在二十世纪五十年代， 或六十年代的时候，

sometime in the 1950s or '60s.

会发生第三次世界大战。

That nuclear weapons actually, until today, served a good function.

直到今天， 核武器其实有着正面的功能。

It's because of nuclear weapons

正是因为核武器，

that we did not have any more direct clashes between superpowers

超级大国之间才没有了直接冲突。

because it was obvious that this would be collective suicide.

因为显然，这将会是集体自杀。

But the danger is still there, it's always there.

但是威胁仍然存在， 它一直都在。

If there is miscalculation,

如果有失算，

then the results could, of course,

那么结果肯定会是

be existential, catastrophic.

威胁人类存在的，灾难性的。

BG: And at the same time, you know, in the '70s after Cuba and Berlin,

BG：同时你也知道， 在七十年代的古巴和柏林之后，

and so in the '60s, but in the '70s,

是六十年代，但是在七十年代时，

we started building a sort of international institutional architecture

我们开始建设一种有助于减少核武

that helped reduce the risk of military confrontation of nuclear weapons,

用于军事冲突的国际组织架构，

we used, you know, anything from arms control agreements

我们使用了从限制武器条约

to measures designed to build trust or to communicate directly and so on.

到用于建立信任 或直接对话的机制等手段。

And then in the last decade or so,

但在上一个年代左右，

that has been progressively kind of scrapped,

这些在逐步地被破坏。

so we are even in a more dangerous situation

所以我们现在正在一个比上世纪末

than we were let's say, at the end of the last century.

可以说更加危险的处境之中。

YNH: Completely, I mean,

YNH：确实。

we are now reaping the bad fruits of neglect

我们正在自食忽视的恶果，

that's been going on for several years,

这样的忽视已经持续几年了。

not just about nuclear weapons, but in general,

不只是对核武器，而是整体上

about international institutions and global cooperation.

对于国际组织以及全球合作的忽视。

We’ve built, in the late 20th century,

在二十世纪末，我们曾建设

a house for humanity

一个全人类的港湾，

based on cooperation,

基于合作，

based on collaboration,

基于团结，

based on the understanding

基于理解。

that our future depends on being able to cooperate,

我们的未来基于我们能够合作，

otherwise we will become extinct as a species.

否则我们将作为物种消失。

And we all live in this house.

我们都生活在这个港湾之中，

But in the last few years we stopped --

但是最近几年来，我们停止......

we neglected it, we stopped repairing it.

我们忽视了它，我们停止了维护它。

We allow it to deteriorate more and more.

我们允许其一步一步衰败。

And, you know, eventually it will --

你也知道，它最终......

It is collapsing now.

它正在崩溃。

So I hope that people will realize before it's too late

所以我希望人们尽早意识到，

that we need not just to stop this terrible war,

我们不只是要停止这场战争，

we need to rebuild the institutions,

我们要重建国际组织，

we need to repair the global house in which we all live together.

我们需要修复我们 赖以生存的全球之屋。

If it falls down, we all die.

如果它坍塌了，我们都将灭亡。

BG: So we have, among the audience listening,

BG：有观众留言，

Rola from --

Rola，来自......

I don't know where she's from, she grew up in Lebanon --

我不太清楚她来自哪里， 她在黎巴嫩长大，

and she said, "I lived the war, I slept on the ground, I breathed fear.

她留言道：“我曾生活在战乱中， 我睡在地上，生活在恐惧中。

All the reasons were explained to me that the only remaining learning came

接受这些解释之后， 唯一我认识到的便是——

the war is absurd.

战争是荒唐的。

We talk about strategy, power, budgets, opportunities, technologies.

我们讨论了战略、力量、预算、 机遇、科技，

What about human suffering and psychological trauma?"

那么遭遇战争的人们以及心理创伤呢？”

Especially, I assume what she's asking is what about, what's going to remain,

我想她在问的是，

in terms of the human suffering

留给遭遇战争的人们的是什么？

and the psychological trauma going forward?

以及重新生活的心理创伤？

YNH: Yeah, I mean, these are the seeds of hatred

我的意思是，这些就是仇恨

and fear and misery

以及恐惧和悲痛的种子，

that are being planted right now in the minds and the bodies

它们正在被植入 成百万上千万的人们的

of tens of millions, hundreds of millions of people, really.

精神里与身体里。

Because it's not just the people in Ukraine,

因为这不仅包括乌克兰的人民，

it's also in the countries around, all over the world.

而且包括全世界各国的人民。

And these seeds will give a terrible harvest,

这些种子将在几年、几十年内， 带来可怕的后果，

terrible fruits in years, in decades to come.

让我们收获可怕的恶果。

This is why it's so crucial to stop the war immediately.

所以这就是为什么， 立即停止战争是多么重要。

Every day this continues, plants more and more of these seeds.

每天战争都在持续播种 越来越多的这样的种子。

And, you know, like this war now,

就像现在正在进行的这场战争，

its seeds were, to a large extent,

它的种子，在很大程度上，

planted decades and even centuries ago.

在几十年前，甚至 几个世纪前，就被种下了。

That part of the Russian fears that are motivating Putin

那部分激励普京

and motivating people around him

以及他身边的人的俄式畏惧，

is memories of past invasions of Russia,

是对俄罗斯过去侵略的回忆，

especially, of course, in Second World War.

尤其是在二战之中的。

And of course, it's a terrible mistake

当然，他们正在做的

what they are doing with it.

是一个可怕的错误。

They are recreating again the same things that they should learn to avoid.

他们正在重新制造那些他们 应该避免重蹈覆辙的事情。

But yes, these are still the terrible fruits

但确实，这些仍然是 二十世纪四十年代

of the seeds being planted in the 1940s.

种下的种子带来的恶果。

BG: It's what in same article you call

BG：这就是你在 同一篇文章中提到的，

the fact that nations are ultimately built on stories.

事实上国家最终是建立于故事之上。

So these seeds are the stories we are starting to create now.

所以这些种子就是 我们正要开始创造的故事。

The war in Ukraine is starting to create the stories

乌克兰战争将创造这些

that are going to have an impact in the future, that's what you're saying.

将对未来产生影响的故事。 这就是你所提及的。

YNH: Some of the seeds of this war were planted in the siege of Leningrad.

这场战争其中一些种子， 植于列宁格勒围困战中。

And now it gives fruit in the siege of Kyiv,

而现在它产生了基辅围困的恶果，

which may give fruit in 40 or 50 years in more terrible ...

而这场围困又可能在四五十年内 产生其他更可怕的恶果……

We need to cut this, we need to stop this.

我们需要切断这链条， 我们需要阻止这发生。

You know, as a historian,

作为一名历史学家，

I feel sometimes ashamed or responsible, I don't know what,

我时常感到羞愧或负有责任，

about what history, the knowledge of history is doing to people.

我不知道历史的知识 是如何影响人们的。

In recent weeks, I have been watching all the world leaders talking with Putin,

这几周来，我一直在观看 各国领导人与普京交谈，

and very often he gave them lectures on history.

通常普京会给他们讲述历史。

I think that Macron had a discussion with him for five hours,

我想马克龙和他对话了五个小时，

and afterwards, said, “Most of the time he was lecturing me about history.”

之后马克龙称：“大部分时间 他都在给我讲述历史。”

And as a historian, I feel ashamed

作为一名历史学家， 我感到很羞愧，

that this is what my profession in some way is doing.

因为在某种程度上， 这就是我的职业所要做的。

I know it for my own country.

我知道对于我们国家，

In Israel, we also suffer from too much history.

在以色列，我们也承受了很多 太多来自历史的苦难。

I think people should be liberated from the past,

我认为人们应当从过去中解放出来，

not constantly repeating it again and again.

而不是一直重复过去，一遍又一遍。

You know, everybody should kind of free themselves

每一个人都应该让自己

from the memories of the Second World War.

从二战的记忆中解脱出来。

It's true of the Russians,

这适用于俄罗斯人，

it's also true of the Germans.

这也适用于德国人。

You know, I look at Germany now,

当我现在再看待德国时，

and what I really want to say, if there are Germans watching us,

我真的想说的是， 如果这里有德国观众，

what I really want to say to the Germans:

我其实想对他们说的是：

guys, we know you are not Nazis.

“伙计们，我们知道你们不是纳粹，

You don't need to keep proving it again and again.

你们不需要一遍又一遍地 再证明这一点。”

What we need from Germany now is to stand up and be a leader,

我们现在需要德国站起来， 成为一名领军人物，

to be at the forefront of the struggle for freedom.

站在为自由而斗争的最前沿。

And sometimes Germans are afraid that if they speak forcefully

有些时候，德国人害怕 他们如果强力的发声

or pick up a gun,

或拿起武器，

everybody will say, "Hey, you're Nazis again."

人们就会说：“嘿，你又变成纳粹了。”

No, we won't think that.

不会的，我们不会这样想。

BG: That's happening right now.

BG：这就是当下正在发生的。

I mean, lots of things that were inconceivable just 10 days ago

我的意思是，很多 十天前不敢想象的事情，

have happened in the last few weeks.

在过去几周里发生了。

And one of the most striking, to me in any case,

其中一个令我在任何时候都很震惊的是

is Germany's reaction and transformation.

德国的反应和转变。

I mean, the new chancellor, Olaf Scholz, the other day announced

新任德国总理 奥拉夫·舒尔茨前不久

that Germany will send arms to Ukraine,

宣布德国将向乌克兰输送武器，

and will spend an extra 100 billion dollars in building up its army.

并将多花一千亿美元来整备军队。

That reverses completely the principles

这完全逆转了指导

that have guided Germany's foreign policy

德国外交政策与安全政治

and security politics for decades.

几十年的原则。

So that shift is happening exactly at this moment and very, very fast.

这样的转变正发生在这时 并且十分迅速。

YNH: Yeah.

YNH：是的，

And I think it's a good thing.

并且我认为这是一件好事。

We need the Germans to ...

我们需要德国人去......

I mean, they are now the leaders of Europe,

我的意思是， 他们现在是欧洲的领导者，

certainly after Britain left in Brexit.

尤其是在英国脱欧之后。

And we need them to, in a way,

我们希望他们，在某种程度上，

let go of the past and be in the present.

放下过去，回到现实上来。

If there is really one country in the world

如果世界上真有这样的一个国家，

that, as a Jew, as an Israeli, as a historian,

作为一名犹太人，一名以色列人，

一名历史学家，

that I trust it not to repeat the horrors of Nazism,

我相信它将不会重演纳粹主义的恐怖。

that's Germany.

这便是德国。

BG: Yuval, I want to touch quickly on three things

BG：尤瓦尔， 我想快速跟您了解三个事情，

that have to do with the fact that this feels like

这些事情，我感觉到，

the first truly interconnected war in many ways.

在这么多年来第一次 真正地联结在一起。

The first, of course, is the basics,

第一件事情，当然， 这是比较基础的，

which is, on one side, you have a very ancient war --

那就是，在一方面， 这是场非常传统的战争，

we have tanks and we have trenches and we have bombed buildings --

有着坦克，有着战壕， 还有被轰炸的房屋。

and on the other, we have real-time visibility of everything

但在另一方面，我们有实时 关注每件事情的能力，

through cell phones and Twitter and TikTok and so on.

无论是通过手机， 推特，抖音还是别的。

And you have written a lot about this tension

你也曾经在传统方式与新兴科技的

between old ways and new tech.

冲突方面写过很多文章。

What's the impact here?

这在此会有哪些影响？

YNH: First of all, we don't know everything that is happening.

YNH：首先，我们不知道 所有的正在发生的事情。

I mean, surprisingly, with all this TikTok and phones and everything,

令人惊讶的是，即使有着 诸如抖音和手机等等这样的方式，

so much is not known.

很多事情也是未知的，

So the fog of war is still there, and yes,

所以战争的谜雾其实仍然存在。

there is much more information, but information isn’t truth.

确实，现在有更多的信息， 但信息不是真相。

Lots of information is disinformation and fake news and so forth.

许多的信息是误导性的， 是假新闻，诸如此类的。

And yes, it’s always like this;

确实，一直都是这样，

the new and the old, they come together.

新旧总是交织在一起。

You know, with all the talk about interconnectedness

谈了这么多的相互联结性，

and living in cyberspace and all that,

或是生活在网络空间等等，

one of the most important technologies not just of this war,

不只是这场战争的， 还是前十几二十几年的，

but of the last decade or two have been stone walls.

最重要的技术之一是“石墙”，

It's Neolithic.

新石器时代的石墙。

Everybody is now building stone walls

在脸书与谷歌这样的时代，

in the era of Facebook and Google and all that.

每个人都在建造这样的石墙。

So the old and the new, they go together.

所以新旧它们是交织在一起的。

And it's ...

这是......

It is a new kind of war.

这是一种全新的战争。

People are sitting at home in California or Australia,

人们坐在加利福尼亚或是 澳大利亚的家中，

and they actively participate in the war,

不只是通过发推特，

not just by writing tweets,

而且是通过网络攻防，

but by attacking websites or defending websites.

活跃在这场战争中。

You know, in Spain, in the Civil War,

在西班牙内战时期，

if you wanted to help fight fascism,

如果你要援助打击法西斯的活动，

then you had to go to Spain and join the international brigade.

那么你必须亲自去西班牙， 加入国际纵队。

Now the international brigade is sitting at home in San Francisco

现在国际纵队坐在旧金山的家中，

and is still in some way part of the war.

仍然能成为这场战争的一部分。

So this is definitely new.

这显然是全新的。

BG: So indeed, just two days ago, Ukraine's deputy prime minister, I think,

BG：确实，就在两天前， 我想是乌克兰的副总理

Fedorov, announced via Telegram

费多洛夫，通过Telegram宣布，

that he wanted to create a sort of volunteer cyber army.

他要组建一种网络志愿军。

He invited software developers and hackers

他邀请了软件开发者和黑客

and other people with IT skills

以及其他有IT技能的人，

to somehow help Ukraine fight on the cyber front.

在某种意义上， 帮助乌克兰战斗在网络前线上。

And according to “Wired” magazine, in less than two days,

据《连线》杂志， 不到两天的时间里，

175,000 people signed up.

17.5万人报了名。

So here is a defending nation that can kind of recruit almost overnight,

这就是处在防御中的国家 几乎一夜之间可以招募到的，

175,000 volunteers to go to battle on his behalf.

17.5万名志愿者将会为他而战。

It's a very different kind of war.

这是一场非常不一样的战争。

YNH: Yeah.

YNH：确实。

You know, every war brings it surprises.

每一场战争都会 带来一些意想不到的事情。

Sometimes it's how everything is new,

有时这就是为何每件事情是旧的，

but sometimes it's also how everything is old.

有时这就是为何每件事情又是新的。

BG: So a few people in the chat and in the Q and A, have mentioned China,

BG：一些人在聊天区 和问答区提到了

which of course, is an important actor here,

一个当然很重要的角色，中国，

although for now is mostly an observer.

虽然到目前为止他还是一个观察者。

But China has a stated policy of opposing any act

但是中国有一条既定的

that violates territorial integrity.

反对任何破坏领土主权完整的政策。

So moving into Ukraine, of course, violates territorial integrity.

进入乌克兰，理所当然， 破坏了乌方领土主权完整。

And it also has a huge interest in a stable global economy

稳定的全球经济和全球架构

and global system.

对中国有很大利益。

But then it needs to square this with the recent closeness with Russia.

但他们也需要考量 近期与俄罗斯的亲密关系。

Xi Jinping and Putin met in Beijing before the Olympics, for example,

比方说，习近平和普京 在奥运会前于北京会晤。

and kind of had this message of friendship that went out to the world.

向世界展示出了他们间友谊。

How do you read China's position in this conflict?

你如何看待在这场冲突中中国的立场？

YNH: I don't know,

YNH：我不知道。

I mean, I'm not an expert on China,

我不是一个在中国问题上的专家，

and I certainly can't just ...

我当然也不能只......

You know, just reading the news won't get you into the mindset,

你也知道，只是看新闻 不会让你了解到

into the real opinions and positions of the Chinese leadership.

中国领导层的思路， 他们真正的观点和立场。

I hope that they take a responsible position.

我希望他们持有一个负责任的立场，

And act --

采取负责任的行动，

because they are close to Russia,

因为他们与俄罗斯关系紧密，

they are also close to Ukraine,

也与乌克兰关系紧密，

but especially because they are close to Russia,

但也尤其因为 他们与俄罗斯关系紧密，

they have a lot of influence on Russia,

他们对俄罗斯会产生很多影响。

I hope that they will be the responsible adults

我希望他们会负起责任来，

that will put down the flames of this war.

浇灭这场战火。

They have a lot to lose

全球秩序的崩溃

from a breakdown of the global order.

会让他们失去很多。

And I think they have a lot to win from the return of peace,

我想他们会从和平的回归中获得很多，

including in terms of the gratitude of the international community.

包括诸如来自国际社会的感激。

Now, whether they do it or not, this is with them.

现在他们怎么做， 这是他们的事情，

I can't predict, but I hope so.

我无法预测，但我希望如此。

BG: You have mentioned before the several European and Western leaders

BG：你之前提到过， 一些欧洲和西方领导人

that have gone to Moscow in the weeks before the invasion.

在侵略发生的几周前去了莫斯科。

Varun in the chat, asks,

聊天室里的Varun提问道：

"Is the Ukraine war a failure of diplomacy?"

“乌克兰战争是外交的失败吗？”

Could have ...

假设那时......

Something different happened?

会发生不一样的事情吗？

YNH: Oh, you can understand it in two questions.

YNH：你可以通过两个问题来理解。

Did diplomacy fail to stop the war?

外交阻止这场战争失败了吗？

Absolutely, everybody knows that.

显然，每个人都知道答案。

But is it a failure in the sense that a different diplomatic approach,

但是从用一种不一样 的外交手段，不一样的方式

some kind of other proposition, would have stopped the war?

就能阻止这场战争的角度来看， 原有的外交手段失败了吗？

I don't know, but it doesn't seem like it.

我不知道，但似乎不是如此。

I mean, looking at the events of the last few weeks,

从前几周的事件来看，

it doesn't seem that Putin was really interested

普京似乎对用外交手段解决

in a diplomatic solution.

并不怎么感兴趣。

It seemed that he was really interested in the war,

他似乎对这场战争十分感兴趣。

and I think, again, it goes back to this basic fantasy

我想，这又一次回到了 那个基本的幻想之中。

that if he really was concerned about the security situation of Russia,

他如果真的担忧俄罗斯的安全处境，

then there was no need to immediately invade Ukraine.

那么他没必要立即入侵乌克兰。

There was no immediate threat to Russia.

俄罗斯并没有即时的威胁，

There was no discussion of right now, Ukraine joining NATO.

当下乌克兰加入北约 不再讨论范围内，

There was no invasion army assembling in the Baltic states or in Poland.

没有侵略军在波罗的海三国 或是波兰集结，

Nothing.

什么都没有。

Putin chose the moment to start this crisis.

普京自己选择时刻 来引发这场危机。

So this is why it doesn't seem

所以这就是为什么 这似乎并不是

that it's really about the security concerns.

真的就关于安全顾虑的，

It seems more about this very deep fantasy

这似乎更多的是 关于这种更深层的

of re-establishing the Russian Empire

重建俄罗斯帝国的幻想，

and of denying the very existence of the Ukrainian nation.

并否认乌克兰这个国家的存在。

BG: So you live in the Middle East.

BG：您住在中东。

Someone else in the chat asks,

另一个人在聊天室问道：

"What makes the situation so unique

“相比于世界上 其他正在进行的战争，

compared to many other wars that are going on right now in the world?"

是什么让这场战争 造成的状况那么特别？”

I would say, aside from the nuclear threat from Russia, but what else?

除了来自俄罗斯的 核威胁之外，还有什么？

YNH: Several things.

YNH：有几样事情。

First of all,

首先，

we have here, again, something we haven't seen since 1945,

我们看到了自1945年来从未看到的，

which is a dominant power

也就是一个强权，

trying to basically obliterate from the map

尝试把一个独立国家

an independent country.

从地图上抹去。

You know, when the US invaded Afghanistan

当美国入侵阿富汗时，

or when the US invaded Iraq,

或是美国入侵伊拉克时，

you can say a lot of things about it

你可以对此发表很多意见，

and criticize it in many ways.

并通过多种方式对此表示批评。

There was no question of the US annexing Iraq

毫无疑问，美国是在强占伊拉克，

or turning Iraq into the 51st state of the United States.

或是把伊拉克 变成美国的第51个州。

This is what is happening in Ukraine

这现在正在以这样的掩饰与伪装，

under this pretext or this disguise,

发生在乌克兰身上。

this is what's at stake.

这是真正的危机所在。

The real aim is to annex Ukraine.

他们真正的目标是吞并乌克兰。

If this succeeds,

如果这实现了，

again, it brings us back to the era of war.

再一次，它将把我们 带回到战争时代。

I was struck by what the Kenyan representative

我感慨于肯尼亚代表

to the UN Security Council said when this erupted.

在这场战争发生后 于联合国安理会的发言。

The Kenyan representative spoke in the name of Kenya

以肯尼亚以及其他非洲国家的名义，

and other African countries.

他做了发言。

And he told the Russians:

他告诉俄罗斯人：

Look, we also are the product of a post-imperial order.

“我们也是后帝国秩序的产物。

The same way the Soviet empire collapsed into different independent nations,

就像苏维埃帝国 分离成不同的独立国家一样，

also, African nations came out of the collapse of European empires.

我们也产生自欧洲帝国的崩溃中。

And the basic principle of African politics ever since then

而自那时以来， 非洲政治的基本准则是，

was that no matter what your objections

无论你有多反对

to the borders you have inherited,

你继承下来的国境，

keep the borders.

维持好这些国境。

The borders are sacred

国境是神圣的，

because if we start invading neighboring countries because,

因为如果我们 开始侵略邻国的理由是

"Hey, this is part of our countries,

’这是我们国家的一部分，

these people are part of our nation,"

这些是我们国家的人民’，

there will not be an end to it.

这只会无休止地进行下去。”

And if this now happens in Ukraine,

如果这发生在乌克兰，

it will be a blueprint for copycats all over the world.

这将成为全世界效仿者的范本。

The other thing which is different is that we are talking about superpowers.

还有一件特别的， 就是我们正在讨论的超级大国。

This is not a war between Israel and Hezbollah.

这不是以色列与 黎巴嫩真主党之间的战争，

This is potentially a war between Russia and NATO.

这可能是一场俄罗斯与 北约之间的战争。

And even leaving aside nuclear weapons,

即使不提核武器，

this completely destabilizes the peace of the entire world.

这都将完全动摇整个世界的和平。

And again, I go back again and again to the budgets.

再一次回到预算问题上，

That if Germany doubles its defense budget,

如果德国的国防开支加倍，

if Poland doubles its defense budget,

如果波兰的国防开支加倍，

this will spread to every country in the world,

这将会传向全世界的每一个国家。

and this is terrible news.

这是非常可怕的。

BG: So Yuval, I'm jumping from topic to topic

BG：我现在从一个话题 转移到另一个话题上，

because I want to use the last few minutes

因为我想用最后的这几分钟

to ask a few questions from the audience.

问一些来自观众的问题。

A few people are asking about the link to the climate crisis,

一些人问到战争与气候危机的关系，

particularly when it relates to the energy flows.

尤其是将其与能源输送关联。

Like, Europe is very dependent,

比方说，欧洲非常依赖……

part of Europe, is very dependent on Russian oil and gas,

欧洲一部分非常依赖

which is, as far as we know, still flowing until today.

据我们所知仍在输送的俄罗斯油气，

But could this crisis, in a sort of paradoxical way,

但这场危机能否 以一种看似矛盾的方式，

a bit like the pandemic, accelerate climate action,

就有点像疫情一样， 促进我们应对气候变化的举措，

accelerate renewables and and so on?

加速再生能源的使用或是其他？

YNH: This is the hope.

YNH：这是一种希望。

That Europe now realizes the danger

欧洲现在意识到了这样的危机，

and starts a green Manhattan Project

并开始了绿色领域的 “曼哈顿计划”，

that kind of accelerates what already has been happening,

并加速落地当前已经开展的措施。

but accelerates it,

但加速这些，

the development of better energy sources,

例如更好的能源开发，

better energy infrastructure,

更好的能源基础设施，

which would release it from its dependence on oil and gas.

将把他们从对油气的依赖中解放出来。

And it will actually undercut the dependence of the whole world

这其实将削弱全世界

on oil and gas.

对油气资源的依赖，

And this would be the best way to undermine the Putin regime

而且这将会是破坏普京的政体与

and the Putin war machine,

普京的战争机器最好的方式，

because this is what Russia has,

因为这就是俄罗斯所拥有的，

oil and gas.

油气资源，

That's it.

就是这些。

When was the last time you bought anything made in Russia?

你上一次买俄罗斯制造 的商品是什么时候？

They have oil and gas,

他们有油气资源，

and we know, you know, the curse of oil.

而油气诅咒我知你知。

That oil is a source of riches,

石油是财富的来源，

but it’s also very often a support for dictatorships.

同时也经常成为独裁专政的支撑，

Because to enjoy the benefits of oil,

因为享受石油带来的好处，

you don't need to share it with your citizens.

无需将其分享给你的公民。

You don't need an open society,

你不需要一个开放的社会，

you don't need education, you just need to drill.

你不需要教育，你只需要钻井。

So we see in many places

所以我们看到在很多地方，

that oil and gas are actually the basis for dictatorships.

油气资源实际上是独裁专政的支撑。

If oil and gas, if the price drops,

如果油气资源的价格下降，

if they become irrelevant,

如果它们变得无关紧要，

it will not only undercut the finance,

这不仅会削减俄罗斯的财富，

the power of the Russian military machine,

削弱俄罗斯的战争机器，

it will also force Russia,

同时也将迫使俄罗斯，

force Putin or the Russians to change their regime.

迫使普京或迫使俄罗斯人民 改变他们的政体。

BG: OK, let me bring up a character

BG：现在让我再提一个人物，

that everybody here in the chat seems to find quite heroic,

他在聊天间里似乎被认为 是富有英雄气息的，

and that's the Ukrainian president.

那就是乌克兰的总统。

So Ukraine kind of finds itself

乌克兰的状况是，

with a comedian who turned almost accidental president,

一位喜剧演员成为了 一名意外的总统，

who turned now war president.

而现在他成为了战时总统。

But he has shown an impressive conduct in the last few weeks,

但前几周来， 他展示了他非凡的行动，

especially in the last few days,

尤其是前几天以来，

which can be summarized in that response he gave to the US

可以用他对美国的回应概括。

when they offered to kind of exfiltrate him

当美国提供给他逃跑的机会，

so he could lead a government in exile,

这样他便能够领导一个流亡政府，

he said, "I need ammunition. I don't need a ride."

他说：“我要的是弹药， 不需要帮我逃跑。”

How would you look at President Zelenskyy?

您对泽连斯基总统怎么看？

YNH: His conduct has indeed been admirable,

YNH：他的行为确实很令人钦佩，

and he gives courage and inspiration not just to the Ukrainian people,

他不仅给乌克兰人民， 而且给全世界人民，

but I think to everybody around the world.

予勇气与启迪。

I think to a large extent

我想，从很大程度上，

the swift and united reaction of Europe

欧洲的快速而团结的反应，

with the sanctions and sending arms and so forth,

比方说制裁和运送武器等等，

to a large extent, this is also to the credit of Zelenskyy.

在很大程度上， 这也是归功于泽连斯基。

That, you know,

你也知道，

when politicians are also human beings.

政治家也是人。

And his direct appeal to them,

他向他们直接求助，

and you know, they met him many times in person

他们多次亲自与他见面，

and to see where he is now

看到他现在的处境，

and the threat that not only him, but his family is also in.

以及他与他的家人处在的威胁之中。

And you know, they talk with him,

他们与他交谈，

and he says, and they know, that this may be the last time they speak.

他说，并且他们知道， 这有可能是他们最后一次对话。

He may be dead, murdered or bombed in an hour or in a day.

他有可能在一小时或一天内 亡去，被谋杀或者被炸死。

It really changes something.

这真的改变了一些事情。

So in this sense, I think he made a huge personal contribution,

所以从这个角度而言， 我想他做出了突出的个人贡献，

to not just the reaction in Ukraine, but around the world.

不只是影响乌克兰的反应， 而且是全世界的反应。

BG: So Sam, who’s listening, asked this question:

BG：正在收听的Sam 问了这样一个问题：

"Can you provide some historical context

“您可以为当下等级的

for the force and the meaning of economic and trade sanctions

经济与贸易制裁的力度与意义

at the level where they are currently imposed.

提供一些历史参考依据吗？

How have previous would-be empires, would-be aggressors, or aggressors,

那些先前可能的帝国， 可能的侵略者或是侵略者

been constrained by such isolations and such sanctions?"

是如何被这样的孤立 与制裁给约束住的？”

YNH: You know, what we need, again, to realize about Putin's Russia

YNH：我们需要认识到的是，

is that it's not the Soviet Union.

普京治下的俄罗斯，不是苏联，

It's a much smaller and weaker country.

而是一个更小更弱的国家。

It's not like in the 1960s,

这不像二十世纪六十年代那样，

that in addition to the Soviet Union,

除了苏联以外，

you had the entire Soviet bloc around it.

还有整个苏维埃集团。

So it's easier in this sense to isolate it.

所以这样一来孤立它更容易。

It's much more vulnerable.

它更加脆弱。

Again, does it mean that sanctions would work like a miracle

那这就意味着 制裁会像奇迹一样运作

and stop the tanks? No.

阻止那些坦克吗？不会的。

It takes time.

这需要时间。

But I think that the West is in a position

但我想西方持有着

to impact Russia

通过这样比对苏联更多的

with these kinds of sanctions and isolation much more

制裁与孤立

than, let's say, with the Soviet Union.

来影响俄罗斯的立场。

And also the Russian people are different.

同时，俄罗斯人民不一样。

The Russian people don't really want this war,

俄罗斯人民不想要这场战争，

even the people in the immediate circle around Putin.

即使是普京身边的人也如此。

You know, again,

你也知道，

I don't know them personally, from what it seems,

我个人不了解他们，但看起来是，

it's that these people, they like life.

就是这些人，他们喜欢生活。

They have their yachts and they have their private airplanes

他们有自己的游艇， 他们有自己的私人飞机，

and they have their house in London

他们在伦敦有自己的房子，

and they have their chateau in France.

他们在法国有自己的城堡，

And they like the good life,

他们喜欢好的生活，

and they want to keep enjoying it.

而且他们想继续享受这样的生活。

So I think that the sanctions can be really effective.

所以我想制裁可以起到很好的效果。

What's the timetable?

那具体的时间呢？

That's ultimately in the hands of Putin.

这最终由普京说了算。

BG: So Gabriella asks: “I remember the war in former Yugoslavia

BG： Gabriella问道： “我回忆起了前南斯拉夫的战争，

and the atrocities there.

以及发生在那里的暴行。

Is there any possibility that this war would escalate into such a situation?"

有没有可能这场战争 会上升到那样的局面？”

I think an extension to that is:

我补充一下是：

Is this war kind of stirring dormant conflicts

这场战争会不会激化潜在的冲突，

like in the Balkans, for example,

比方说像巴尔干，

or in the former Central Asian republic?

或是先前中亚各国那样？

YNH: Unfortunately, it can get to that level and even worse.

YNH：很不幸，这可能达到 那种局面甚至更糟。

If you want an analogy, go to Syria.

想要类比的话，可以去叙利亚，

You look at what happened in Homs.

可以看看霍姆斯发生了什么，

At what happened in Aleppo.

看看阿勒颇发生了什么。

And this was done by Putin and his airplanes

这是由普京和他的飞机，

and his minions in Syria.

以及他在叙利亚的仆从造成的。

It's the same person behind it.

这是由同一个人造成。

And to think that, "No, no, no, this happened in the Middle East.

如果这样想：不不不， 这都发生在中东，

It can't happen in Europe."

这不会发生在欧洲。

No.

这不是的。

We could see Kyiv in the same situation as Homs,

我们可以看到基辅 陷入与霍姆斯一样的状况，

as the same situation as Aleppo,

陷入与阿勒颇一样的状况，

which would be catastrophic,

这将会是灾难性，

and, again, would plant terrible seeds of hatred

并将在几年几十年内

for years and decades.

种下可怕的仇恨种子。

So far, we've seen hundreds of people being killed,

到目前为止我们看到， 成百上千的人们被害，

Ukrainian citizens being killed.

乌克兰的人民受难。

It could reach tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands.

这个数字可以达到数万、数十万。

So in this sense, it's extremely painful to contemplate.

这样而言，深入想想是非常痛苦的。

And this is why we need again and again

这也是为什么我们需要一遍又一遍地

to urge the leaders to stop this war,

敦促领导者们停止这场战争，

and especially, again and again,

尤其是一遍又一遍地

tell Putin,

告诉普京：

"You will not be able to absorb Ukraine into Russia.

“你没有办法将乌克兰 吸收进入俄罗斯，

They don't want it, they don't want you.

他们不要这样，他们不需要你。

If you continue,

如果你继续，

the only thing you will achieve is to create terrible hatred

唯一一件你能做到的， 就是在乌克兰人与俄罗斯人间

between Ukrainians and Russians for generations.

制造延续几代人的可怕的仇恨。

It doesn't have to be like that."

没必要这样。”

BG: Yuval, let me finish with one question about your county.

BG：尤瓦尔，我想用关于 你的国家的一个问题来作结，

You are in Israel.

你在以色列，

Israel has close ties with both Russia and Ukraine.

以色列与俄乌双方都有紧密的关系，

It's actually home of many Russian-born and many Ukrainian-born Jews.

这其实是很多俄罗斯出生的犹太人 与乌克兰出生的犹太人的家园，

How is the country reacting to this conflict,

这个国家是如何应对这场冲突的，

I'm talking about the government, but also about the population?

包括政府与人民在内？

YNH: Actually, I'm not the best person to ask.

YNH：其实我并不是 回答这个问题的最佳人选。

I've been so, kind of, following what's happening around the world,

我一直都在跟进世界上发生的事情。

I didn't pay so much attention to what is happening right here.

我并没有关注太多发生在这里的事情。

And even though I live here,

即使我是住在这里，

I'm not an expert on Israeli society or Israeli politics.

我并不是一个以色列 社会与政治的专家。

Definitely, the sentiment in the street, in the social media is with Ukraine.

当然，街上的、 社交媒体上的观点是支持乌克兰。

You see Ukrainian flags,

你可以看到乌克兰国旗，

you see on social media people putting Ukrainian flags

在社交媒体上你可以看到

on their accounts.

人们在他们的账号上 打上乌克兰国旗。

And another thing, so many people in Israel,

另外，许多在以色列的人们

they came from the former Soviet Union.

来自前苏联。

And until now,

直到现在，

everybody was simply known as Russians.

那些人们只是简单地 被认为成俄罗斯人。

You know, even if you came from Azerbaijan or you came from Bukhara,

即使你来自阿塞拜疆， 或是来自布哈拉，

you were a Russian.

你就会被认为成俄罗斯人。

And suddenly, "No, no, no, no, no.

而突然：“不不不，

I'm not Russian.

我不是俄罗斯人。

I'm Ukrainian."

我是乌克兰人。”

And again, these seeds of hatred that Putin is planting,

再一次，这些由普京 播下的仇恨的种子，

it's reaching also here.

也在这里生根。

That suddenly people are saying no, Russian, Ukrainian,

突然间人们就说， 俄罗斯人，乌克兰人，

until a very short time ago, it's the same thing.

在很短的一段时间前， 他们是一样的。

No, it's not the same thing.

现在，不，他们不是一样的。

So the shock waves are spreading.

所以这样的冲击波正在蔓延。

BG: Yuval, thank you for taking the time and being with us today

BG：尤瓦尔，感谢你在百忙中 抽出时间在今日同我们一起

and sharing your knowledge and your views on the situation.

分享当前状况下您的所知与洞见。

Thank you very much.

非常感谢。

YNH: Thank you and I hope for peace quickly.

YNH：谢谢， 我也希望和平尽早到来。

BG: We all do. Thank you.

BG：我们也一样，谢谢。

[Get access to thought-provoking events you won't want to miss.]

【参与你不愿错过令人深省的活动。】

[Become a TED Member at ted.com/membership]

【登录ted.com/membership 成为一名TED会员】