Jonathan Haidt: How common threats can make common (political) ground

Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Morton Bast

Prevodilac: Mile Živković Lektor: Tatjana Jevdjic

So if you've been following the news,

Ako ste pratili vesti,

you've heard that there's a pack of giant asteroids

čuli ste da će gomila ogromnih asteroida, koja se kreće ka SAD,

headed for the United States,

all scheduled to strike within the next 50 years.

udariti u narednih 50 godina.

Now I don't mean actual asteroids made of rock and metal.

Ne mislim na prave asteroide od kamena i metala.

That actually wouldn't be such a problem,

To zapravo i ne bi bio neki problem,

because if we were really all going to die,

jer ako ćemo zaista svi da umremo,

we would put aside our differences, we'd spend whatever it took,

ostavili bismo po strani sve nesuglasice, potrošili koliko god da je potrebno

and we'd find a way to deflect them.

i pronašli bismo način da ih preusmerimo.

I'm talking instead about threats that are headed our way,

Zapravo govorim o pretnjama koje nam se približavaju,

but they're wrapped in a special energy field

a koje su umotane u posebno energetsko polje

that polarizes us, and therefore paralyzes us.

koje nas polarizuje i samim time paralizuje.

Last March, I went to the TED conference,

Prošlog marta sam bio na TED konferenciji

and I saw Jim Hansen speak, the NASA scientist

i slušao sam govor Džima Hensena, naučnika NASA-e,

who first raised the alarm about global warming in the 1980s,

koji je prvi upozorio na globalno zagrevanje još tokom '80-ih,

and it seems that the predictions he made back then

i čini se da se njegova tadašnja predviđanja

are coming true.

sada ostvaruju.

This is where we're headed in terms of global temperature rises,

Krećemo u pravcu globalnog porasta temperature

and if we keep on going the way we're going,

i ako nastavimo tim putem,

we get a four- or five-degree-Centigrade temperature rise

ostvarićemo porast temperature od 4-5 stepeni Celzijusa

by the end of this century.

do kraja ovog veka.

Hansen says we can expect about a five-meter rise in sea levels.

Hansen kaže da možemo očekivati podizanje nivoa mora za oko pet metara.

This is what a five-meter rise in sea levels would look like.

Ovako bi to izgledalo.

Low-lying cities all around the world will disappear

Gradovi širom sveta koji leže ispod nivoa mora će nestati

within the lifetime of children born today.

za vreme života dece koja se rađaju danas.

Hansen closed his talk by saying,

Hansen je završio svoj govor rečima:

"Imagine a giant asteroid on a collision course with Earth.

"Zamislite ogroman asteroid kako se približava sudaru sa Zemljom.

That is the equivalent of what we face now.

To je ekvivalent onoga sa čim se sada suočavamo.

Yet we dither, taking no action to deflect the asteroid,

Pa mi i dalje oklevamo, ne preduzimamo ništa da preusmerimo taj asteroid,

even though the longer we wait,

premda, što duže čekamo,

the more difficult and expensive it becomes."

delovanje postaje sve teže i skuplje."

Of course, the left wants to take action,

Naravno, levičari žele da preduzmu neke mere,

but the right denies that there's any problem.

ali desničari odbijaju da priznaju da problem uopšte postoji.

All right, so I go back from TED,

Vratio sam se sa TED-a,

and then the following week, I'm invited to a dinner party

te sam nedelju dana posle toga dobio poziv na večeru

in Washington, D.C., where I know that I'll be meeting

u Vašingtonu, gde sam znao da ću se sresti

a number of conservative intellectuals, including Yuval Levin,

sa nekoliko konzervativnih intelektualaca, uključujući Juvala Levina.

and to prepare for the meeting, I read this article by Levin

Kako bih se pripremio za taj susret, pročitao sam Levinov članak

in National Affairs called "Beyond the Welfare State."

u časopisu National Affairs, pod nazivom "Posle države blagostanja."

Levin writes that all over the world,

Levin piše da nacije širom sveta

nations are coming to terms with the fact

polako prihvataju činjenicu

that the social democratic welfare state

da socio-demokratska država blagostanja

is turning out to be untenable and unaffordable,

postaje neodrživa i nepriuštiva,

dependent upon dubious economics

te da zavisi od neizvesne ekonomije

and the demographic model of a bygone era.

i demografskog modela davno prošlog doba.

All right, now this might not sound as scary as an asteroid,

U redu, ovo sada možda ne zvuči tako zastrašujuće kao asteroid,

but look at these graphs that Levin showed.

ali pogledajte ove grafikone koje je Levin pokazao.

This graph shows the national debt

Ovaj grafikon pokazuje nacionalni dug

as a percentage of America's GDP, and as you see,

kao procenat američkog BDP-a i kao što vidite,

if you go all the way back to the founding,

ako se vratimo na sam početak od osnivanja,

we borrowed a lot of money to fight the Revolutionary War.

vidimo da smo mnogo pozajmili da bismo vodili Rat za nezavisnost.

Wars are expensive. But then we'd pay it off, pay it off, pay it off,

Ratovi su skupi. Ipak, otplaćujemo ih i otplaćujemo

and then, oh, what's this? The Civil War. Even more expensive.

i onda, oh, pa šta je ovo? Građanski rat. Još skuplje.

Borrow a lot of money, pay it off, pay it off, pay it off,

Pozajmi mnogo novca, otplaćuj, otplaćuj, otplaćuj,

get down to near zero, and bang! -- World War I.

dođeš do nulte tačke i beng! - Prvi svetski rat.

Once again, the same process repeats.

I opet se celi taj proces ponavlja.

Now then we get the Great Depression and World War II.

I onda Velika depresija i Drugi svetski rat.

We rise to an astronomical level, around 118 percent of GDP,

Uzdigli smo se do astronomskog nivoa, otprilike 118% BDP-a,

really unsustainable, really dangerous.

što je zaista neodrživo, zaista opasno.

But we pay it off, pay it off, pay it off, and then, what's this?

Ali mi i dalje otplaćujemo, otplaćujemo, otplaćujemo i onda, šta je sad ovo?

Why has it been rising since the '70s?

Zbog čega ponovo raste od '70-ih?

It's partly due to tax cuts that were unfunded,

Jednim delom zbog nefinansiranih poreskih rezova,

but it's due primarily to the rise of entitlement spending,

ali prvenstveno zbog porasta u ovlaštenju potrošnje,

especially Medicare.

naročito za medicinsku negu.

We're approaching the levels of indebtedness we had at World War II,

Približavamo se nivoima zaduženosti kakve smo imali u Drugom svetskom ratu,

and the baby boomers haven't even retired yet,

a generacije "bejbi bumera" još uvek nisu u penziji,

and when they do, this is what will happen.

a kada se penzionišu, desiće se sledeće.

This is data from the Congressional Budget Office

Ovo su podaci budžetske službe Kongresa

showing its most realistic forecast of what would happen

koji pokazuju najrealističnije predviđanje onoga što će se desiti

if current situations and expectations and trends are extended.

ako se trenutna situacija, očekivanja i trendovi nastave.

All right, now what you might notice is that these two graphs

U redu, ono što možete primetiti je da su ova dva grafikona

are actually identical, not in terms of the x- and y-axes,

zapravo identična, ne u smislu x i y osa ili podataka koje predstavljaju,

or in terms of the data they present,

but in terms of their moral and political implications, they say the same thing.

već da u smislu svojih moralnih i političkih posledica, govore istu stvar.

Let me translate for you.

Dozvolite mi da vam pojasnim.

"We are doomed unless we start acting now.

"Osuđeni smo na propast ukoliko ne počnemo da delujemo sada.

What's wrong with you people on the other side in the other party?

Ljudi, šta nije u redu sa vama koji ste na drugoj strani, u drugoj stranci?

Can't you see reality? If you won't help, then get the hell out of the way."

Zar ne vidite stvarnost? Ako nećete da pomognete, onda se gubite."

We can deflect both of these asteroids.

Možemo preusmeriti oba asteroida.

These problems are both technically solvable.

Oba problema su tehnički rešiva.

Our problem and our tragedy is that in these hyper-partisan times,

Naš problem i tragedija je da u ovim prenaglašeno partijskim vremenima,

the mere fact that one side says, "Look, there's an asteroid,"

samo činjenica da jedna strana kaže: "Pogledaj, evo ga asteroid",

means that the other side's going to say, "Huh? What?

znači da će druga strana reći: "Hmm? Šta?

No, I'm not even going to look up. No."

Ne, ne pada mi na pamet čak ni da pogledam gore. Ne."

To understand why this is happening to us,

Da bismo shvatili zašto nam se to dešava

and what we can do about it, we need to learn more about moral psychology.

i šta možemo uraditi po tom pitanju, moramo naučiti nešto o psihologiji morala.

So I'm a social psychologist, and I study morality,

Ja sam socijalni psiholog i bavim se izučavanjem moralnosti,

and one of the most important principles of morality

a jedan od najznačajnijih principa moralnosti

is that morality binds and blinds.

je da ona povezuje i zaslepljuje.

It binds us into teams that circle around sacred values

Moralnost nas povezuje u timove koji kruže oko svetih vrednosti,

but thereby makes us go blind to objective reality.

ali nas istovremeno čini slepima prema objektivnoj stvarnosti.

Think of it like this.

Razmislite o tome ovako.

Large-scale cooperation is extremely rare on this planet.

Saradnja na širokoj osnovi je izuzetno retka na ovoj planeti.

There are only a few species that can do it.

Svega nekoliko vrsta su u stanju da ostvare saradnju.

That's a beehive. That's a termite mound, a giant termite mound.

To je pčelinja košnica. To je ogromni mravinjak termita.

And when you find this in other animals, it's always the same story.

I kada opazite nešto slično kod drugih životinja, uvek je ista priča.

They're always all siblings who are children of a single queen,

Uvek su svi braća i sestre, deca jedne matice,

so they're all in the same boat.

tako da svi dele istu sudbinu.

They rise or fall, they live or die, as one.

Uspinju se ili padaju, žive ili umiru kao jedno.

There's only one species on the planet that can do this

Samo jedna vrsta na planeti može to da učini

without kinship, and that, of course, is us.

i bez srodstva, a to smo, naravno, mi.

This is a reconstruction of ancient Babylon,

Ovo je rekonstrukcija drevnog Vavilona,

and this is Tenochtitlan.

a ovo je Tenočtitlan.

Now how did we do this? How did we go

Kako smo to uradili?

Kako smo uspeli da od lovaca-sakupljača pre 10.000 godina,

from being hunter-gatherers 10,000 years ago

to building these gigantic cities in just a few thousand years?

izgradimo ove džinovske gradove kroz svega nekoliko hiljada godina?

It's miraculous, and part of the explanation

To je pravo čudo, a deo objašnjenja

is this ability to circle around sacred values.

je ta sposobnost okupljanja oko svetih vrednosti.

As you see, temples and gods play a big role in all ancient civilizations.

Kao što vidite, hramovi i bogovi imaju veliku ulogu u svim drevnim civilizacijama.

This is an image of Muslims circling the Kaaba in Mecca.

Ovo je prizor muslimana okupljenih oko Kabe u Meki.

It's a sacred rock, and when people circle something together,

To je sveta stena i kada ljudi okruže nešto zajedno,

they unite, they can trust each other, they become one.

oni se ujedinjuju, što znači da veruju jedni drugima i postaju jedno.

It's as though you're moving an electrical wire

Kao da pomerate električnu žicu

through a magnetic field that generates current.

kroz magnetno polje koje generiše struju.

When people circle together, they generate a current.

Kada su ljudi okupljeni u krug, oni proizvode struju.

We love to circle around things.

Volimo da kružimo oko stvari.

We circle around flags, and then we can trust each other.

Kružimo oko zastava i tada možemo da verujemo jedni drugima.

We can fight as a team, as a unit.

Možemo se boriti kao tim, kao jedinka.

But even as morality binds people together into a unit,

Ali čak i kada moralnost povezuje ljude u jedno,

into a team, the circling blinds them.

u tim, to kruženje ih zaslepljuje.

It causes them to distort reality.

Zbog njega ljudi počnu da izvrću realnost.

We begin separating everything into good versus evil.

Počnemo da razdvajamo sve kao dobro naspram zla.

Now that process feels great. It feels really satisfying.

Taj proces se čini izvrsnim, zaista nam pričinjava zadovoljstvo.

But it is a gross distortion of reality.

Ali to je užasno izvrtanje realnosti.

You can see the moral electromagnet operating in the U.S. Congress.

Vidite moralni elektromagnet koji deluje u američkom Kongresu.

This is a graph that shows the degree to which voting

Ovo je grafikon koji pokazuje stepen do kojeg glasanje

in Congress falls strictly along the left-right axis,

u Kongresu pada oštro duž ose levo-desno,

so that if you know how liberal or conservative someone is,

tako da ako znate u kojoj meri je neko liberalan ili konzervativan,

you know exactly how they voted on all the major issues.

znate tačno kako je ta osoba glasala o najvažnijim pitanjima.

And what you can see is that,

A ono što možete da vidite je da je u decenijama nakon Građanskog rata

in the decades after the Civil War,

Congress was extraordinarily polarized,

Kongres bio neverovatno polarizovan,

as you would expect, about as high as can be.

kao što biste i očekivali, polarizovan u najvećoj mogućoj meri.

But then, after World War I, things dropped,

A onda, posle Prvog svetskog rata, tenzije su se malo spustile

and we get this historically low level of polarization.

i dobili smo ovaj istorijski nizak stepen polarizacije.

This was a golden age of bipartisanship,

Ovo je bilo zlatno doba dvopartijske vladavine,

at least in terms of the parties' ability to work together

barem u smislu sposobnosti stranaka da sarađuju

and solve grand national problems.

i zajedno rešavaju velike nacionalne probleme.

But in the 1980s and '90s, the electromagnet turns back on.

No, u '80-im i '90-im elektromagnet se vraća na prethodno stanje.

Polarization rises.

Polarizacija raste.

Nekada su konzervativci, umerene struje i liberali

It used to be that conservatives and moderates and liberals

could all work together in Congress.

bili u stanju da sarađuju u Kongresu.

They could rearrange themselves, form bipartisan committees,

Znali su da prekonsoliduju svoje redove, da osnivaju dvopartijske komitete,

but as the moral electromagnet got cranked up,

ali kako je moralni elektromagnet ubrzao sa radom,

the force field increased,

polje sile se povećalo,

Democrats and Republicans were pulled apart.

te je došlo do razdvajanja demokrata i republikanaca.

It became much harder for them to socialize,

Za njih je postalo mnogo teže da se druže,

much harder for them to cooperate.

mnogo teže da sarađuju.

Retiring members nowadays say that it's become like gang warfare.

Članovi stranaka koji se sada povlače kažu da je postalo poput rata između bandi.

Did anybody notice that in two of the three debates,

Da li je iko primetio da je tokom dve, od ukupno tri debate,

Obama wore a blue tie and Romney wore a red tie?

Obama nosio plavu, a Romni crvenu kravatu?

Do you know why they do this?

Znate li zbog čega to rade?

It's so that the Bloods and the Crips will know which side to vote for. (Laughter)

Da bi iz bandi Blads i Krips znali za koju stranu da glasaju. (Smeh)

The polarization is strongest among our political elites.

Polarizacija je najsnažnija među našim političkim elitama.

Nobody doubts that this is happening in Washington.

Niko ne sumnja da se upravo to dešava u Vašingtonu.

But for a while, there was some doubt as to whether it was happening among the people.

Međutim, neko vreme je postojala sumnja da li se to dešava i među ljudima.

Well, in the last 12 years it's become

U poslednjih 12 godina, postalo je mnogo očiglednije da se zaista dešava.

much more apparent that it is.

So look at this data. This is from the American National Elections Survey.

Pogledajte ove podatke iz Nacionalne izborne ankete.

And what they do on that survey is they ask

U toj anketi su pokušali da saznaju

what's called a feeling thermometer rating.

ono što se naziva "osećanje vrednosti termometra".

So, how warm or cold do you feel about, you know,

Odnosno, koliko hladno ili toplo, na primer, osećate prema

Native Americans, or the military, the Republican Party,

Indijancima, vojsci, Republikanskoj stranci,

the Democratic Party, all sorts of groups in American life.

Demokratskoj stranci, svim mogućim grupama u američkom životu.

The blue line shows how warmly Democrats feel

Plava linija pokazuje koliko toplo demokrate osećaju

about Democrats, and they like them.

prema demokratama i da im se sviđaju.

You know, ratings in the 70s on a 100-point scale.

Znate, rezultati su tu oko 70 na skali od 100.

Republicans like Republicans. That's not a surprise.

Republikanci vole republikance. To nije nikakvo iznenađenje.

But when you look at cross-party ratings,

Ali kada pogledate uzajamne stranačke rezultate,

you find, well, that it's lower, but actually,

videćete da su niži, međutim,

when I first saw this data, I was surprised.

kada sam isprva video podatke, iznenadio sam se. Zapravo i nije tako loše.

That's actually not so bad. If you go back to the Carter and even Reagan administrations,

Ako se vratite na Karterovu, pa čak i Reganovu administraciju,

they were rating the other party 43, 45. It's not terrible.

ocenjivali su drugu stranu sa 43 ili 45. To nije užasno.

It drifts downwards very slightly,

Postepeno te vrednosti opadaju,

but now look what happens under George W. Bush and Obama.

ali pogledajte sada šta se dešava pod Džordžom Bušom i Obamom.

It plummets. Something is going on here.

Vrednosti vrtoglavo padaju. Ovde se nešto dešava.

The moral electromagnet is turning back on,

Moralni elektromagnet se ponovo pali

and nowadays, just very recently,

i sada, zapravo sasvim nedavno,

Democrats really dislike Republicans.

demokrate zaista ne vole republikance.

Republicans really dislike the Democrats. We're changing.

Republikanci zaista ne vole demokrate. Menjamo se.

It's as though the moral electromagnet is affecting us too.

Čini se kao da moralni elektromagnet takođe utiče i na nas.

It's like put out in the two oceans and it's pulling the whole country apart,

Kao da je stavljen u dva okeana i sada celu zemlju razdire na dva dela,

pulling left and right into their own territories

vukući levicu i desnicu na njihove teritorije

like the Bloods and the Crips.

poput bandi Blads i Krips.

Now, there are many reasons why this is happening to us,

Mnogo je razloga zbog kojih nam se to dešava,

and many of them we cannot reverse.

i mnoge od njih ne možemo vratiti.

We will never again have a political class

Više nikada nećemo imati političku klasu

that was forged by the experience of fighting together

koja je nastala kroz iskustvo zajedničke borbe

in World War II against a common enemy.

u Drugom svetskom ratu protiv zajedničkog neprijatelja.

We will never again have just three television networks,

Nikada više nećemo imati samo tri televizijske mreže,

all of which are relatively centrist.

koje su sve relativno centralističke.

And we will never again have a large group of conservative southern Democrats

I nikada više nećemo imati veliku grupu konzervativnih demokrata sa juga

and liberal northern Republicans making it easy,

i liberalnih republikanaca sa severa koji olakšavaju sve,

making there be a lot of overlap for bipartisan cooperation.

praveći mnogo preklapanja kako bi omogućili dvostranačku saradnju.

So for a lot of reasons, those decades after the Second World War

Iz mnogo razloga, ove decenije nakon Drugog svetskog rata

were an historically anomalous time.

predstavljaju istorijsku anomaliju.

We will never get back to those low levels of polarization, I believe.

Verujem da se nikada nećemo vratiti na tako niske nivoe polarizacije.

But there's a lot that we can do. There are dozens

No, mnogo je toga što možemo da uradimo.

Postoji na desetine reformi koje možemo sprovesti da poboljšamo stvari,

and dozens of reforms we can do that will make things better,

because a lot of our dysfunction can be traced directly

jer je veliki deo našeg poremećaja usled svega onoga što je Kongres

to things that Congress did to itself in the 1990s

učinio sam sebi tokom '90-ih,

that created a much more polarized and dysfunctional institution.

a što je stvorilo mnogo polarizovaniju i disfunkcionalniju instituciju.

These changes are detailed in many books.

Ovim promenama se detaljno bave mnoge knjige.

These are two that I strongly recommend,

Posebno bih preporučio ove dve knjige

and they list a whole bunch of reforms.

i u njima se navodi cela gomila reformi.

I'm just going to group them into three broad classes here.

Ovde ću ih grupisati u tri široke klase.

So if you think about this as the problem of a dysfunctional,

Ako mislite o ovome kao o problemu disfunkcionalne,

hyper-polarized institution, well, the first step is,

hiper-polarizovane institucije, pa, prvi korak je

do what you can so that fewer hyper-partisans get elected in the first place,

uradite sve što možete kako bi što manje hiper-sledbenika uopšte bilo izabrano,

and when you have closed party primaries,

a kada se završe stranački predizbori

and only the most committed Republicans and Democrats are voting,

i kada glasaju samo najposvećeniji republikanci i demokrate,

you're nominating and selecting the most extreme hyper-partisans.

nominovaćete i birati samo najekstremnije hiper-sledbenike.

So open primaries would make that problem much, much less severe.

To znači da bi otvoreni predizbori učinili taj problem mnogo manje ozbiljnim.

But the problem isn't primarily that we're electing bad people to Congress.

Međutim, problem nije samo u tome da biramo loše ljude za Kongres.

From my experience, and from what I've heard from Congressional insiders,

Iz mog iskustva i na osnovu onoga što sam čuo od insajdera iz Kongresa,

most of the people going to Congress are good, hard-working,

većina ljudi koji su u Kongresu su dobri, vredni i inteligentni ljudi

intelligent people who really want to solve problems,

koji zaista žele da reše probleme,

but once they get there, they find that they are forced

ali onda kada se nađu tamo, shvate da su primorani da igraju igru

to play a game that rewards hyper-partisanship

koja nagrađuje hiper-strančarenje i kažnjava nezavisnu misao.

and that punishes independent thinking.

You step out of line, you get punished.

Ako prekoračite liniju, bivate kažnjeni.

So there are a lot of reforms we could do

Ima mnogo reformi koje možemo sprovesti kako bismo se suprotstavili tome.

that will counteract this.

For example, this "Citizens United" ruling is a disaster,

Na primer, odluka "Ujedinjeni građani" je katastrofa,

because it means there's like a money gun aimed at your head,

jer znači da ti je pištolj zbog novca uperen u glavu

and if you step out of line, if you try to reach across the aisle,

i ako pokušaš da pređeš na drugu stranu

there's a ton of money waiting to be given to your opponent

gomila novca će pripasti tvom protivniku

to make everybody think that you are a terrible person through negative advertising.

da bi svi kroz negativnu reklamu bili ubeđeni da si ti užasna osoba.

But the third class of reforms is that we've got to change

A treća klasa reformi je da moramo da promenimo

the nature of social relationships in Congress.

prirodu društvenih odnosa u Kongresu.

The politicians I've met are generally very extroverted,

Političari koje sam upoznao su generalno dosta ekstrovertni,

friendly, very socially skillful people,

prijateljski nastrojeni i socijalno veoma vešti ljudi,

and that's the nature of politics. You've got to make relationships,

ali to i jeste priroda politike.

Morate graditi odnose, praviti dilove, laskati, udovoljavati, da budete slatkorečivi,

make deals, you've got to cajole, please, flatter,

you've got to use your personal skills,

morate koristiti svoje lične sposobnosti

and that's the way politics has always worked.

jer je politika oduvek tako funkcionisala.

But beginning in the 1990s, first the House of Representatives

Međutim, počevši tokom '90-ih, prvo je Dom predstavnika

changed its legislative calendar

promenio svoj zakonodavni kalendar,

so that all business is basically done in the middle of the week.

tako da se posao u suštini odrađuje sredinom radne nedelje.

Nowadays, Congressmen fly in on Tuesday morning,

Sada kongresmeni lete u utorak ujutru,

they do battle for two days, then they fly home Thursday afternoon.

bore se ta dva dana, a potom u četvrtak popodne lete nazad kući.

They don't move their families to the District.

Njihove porodice se ne sele u Distrikt.

They don't meet each other's spouses or children.

Oni ne upoznaju supružnike ili decu jedni drugih.

There's no more relationship there.

Tu više nema nikakvih odnosa.

And trying to run Congress without human relationships

A pokušaj vođenja Kongresa bez ljudskih odnosa

is like trying to run a car without motor oil.

jednak je pokušaju da vozite automobil bez ulja za motor.

Should we be surprised when the whole thing freezes up

Da li ćemo se uopšte iznenaditi kada se sve zaledi

and descends into paralysis and polarization?

i počne da polako pada u paralizu i polarizaciju?

A simple change to the legislative calendar,

Jednostavna promena zakonodavnog kalendara,

such as having business stretch out for three weeks

produženje aktivnosti na period od tri nedelje,

and then they get a week off to go home,

zatim slobodna nedelja da se kongresmeni vrate kućama

that would change the fundamental relationships in Congress.

promenila bi fundamentalne odnose u Kongresu.

So there's a lot we can do, but who's going to push them to do it?

Mnogo toga bismo mogli učiniti, ali ko će i njih pogurati?

There are a number of groups that are working on this.

Postoji više grupa koje rade na tome.

No Labels and Common Cause, I think,

"No Labels" i "Common Cause", čini mi se,

have very good ideas for changes we need to do

imaju veoma dobre ideje kakve promene moramo uvesti

to make our democracy more responsive and our Congress more effective.

da naša demokratija više reaguje i da Kongres bude efikasniji.

But I'd like to supplement their work

Međutim, želeo bih da upotpunim njihov rad

with a little psychological trick, and the trick is this.

pomoću malog psihološkog trika, a trik je sledeći.

Nothing pulls people together like a common threat

Ništa ne privlači ljude jedne ka drugima tako snažno kao zajednička pretnja

or a common attack, especially an attack from a foreign enemy,

ili zajednički napad, naročito ako je u pitanju strani neprijatelj,

unless of course that threat hits on our polarized psychology,

ukoliko, naravno, ta pretnja ne gađa našu polarizovanu psihologiju,

in which case, as I said before, it can actually pull us apart.

kada nas ta pretnja razdvaja.

Sometimes a single threat can polarize us, as we saw.

Ponekad samo jedna pretnja može da nas polarizuje, kao što smo videli.

But what if the situation we face is not a single threat

Ali šta ako situacija sa kojom smo suočeni ne predstavlja jednu pretnju

but is actually more like this,

već je više nalik na ovo - toliko toga dolazi zajedno, da se svodi na:

where there's just so much stuff coming in,

it's just, "Start shooting, come on, everybody,

"Počnite da pucate, sada moramo da radimo zajedno, samo počnite da pucate."

we've got to just work together, just start shooting."

Because actually, we do face this situation.

Zato što se zapravo svi suočavamo sa ovom situacijom.

This is where we are as a country.

Tu se nalazimo kao država.

So here's another asteroid.

A ovde je drugi asteroid.

We've all seen versions of this graph, right,

Svi smo već videli različite verzije ovog grafikona

which shows the changes in wealth since 1979,

koji pokazuje promene u stepenu bogatstva od 1979.,

and as you can see, almost all the gains in wealth

i kao što možete da vidite, gotovo svi porasti bogatstva

have gone to the top 20 percent, and especially the top one percent.

su se popeli u ovih 20% na vrhu, a posebno u 1% na samom vrhu.

Rising inequality like this is associated

Rastuća nejednakost poput ove se povezuje

with so many problems for a democracy.

sa jako mnogo problema za jednu demokratiju.

Especially, it destroys our ability to trust each other,

Posebno, ona uništava našu sposobnost da verujemo jedni drugima,

to feel that we're all in the same boat, because it's obvious we're not.

da osećamo da smo svi u istoj poziciji, jer je očigledno da nismo.

Some of us are sitting there safe and sound in gigantic private yachts.

Neki od nas su na suvom i sigurnom u ogromnim privatnim jahtama,

Other people are clinging to a piece of driftwood.

dok ostali plutaju držeći se za komad drveta.

We're not all in the same boat, and that means

Nismo svi u istoj poziciji, a to znači

nobody's willing to sacrifice for the common good.

da niko nije voljan da se žrtvuje za opšte dobro.

The left has been screaming about this asteroid for 30 years now,

Levica već 30 godina vrišti zbog ovog asteroida,

and the right says, "Huh, what? Hmm? No problem. No problem."

dok desnica ponavlja: "Uh, šta? Hmm? Nema problema."

Now,

I eto,

šta nam se sada dešava? Zašto nejednakost sve više raste?

why is that happening to us? Why is the inequality rising?

Well, one of the largest causes, after globalization,

Jedan od najvećih razloga, nakon globalizacije,

is actually this fourth asteroid,

je zapravo ovaj četvrti asteroid,

rising non-marital births.

sve veći broj vanbračne dece.

This graph shows the steady rise of out-of-wedlock births

Ovaj grafikon pokazuje stabilan rast broja vanbračno rođene dece

since the 1960s.

od '60-ih.

Most Hispanic and black children are now born to unmarried mothers.

Većinu hispano i crnačke dece rađaju nevenčane majke.

Whites are headed that way too.

Ali i belci idu u istom pravcu.

Within a decade or two, most American children

Kroz deceniju ili dve,

većina američke dece će biti rođena u domovima bez oca.

will be born into homes with no father.

This means that there's much less money coming into the house.

To znači da mnogo manje novca pristiže u kuću.

But it's not just money. It's also stability versus chaos.

Ali nije u pitanju samo novac, već i stabilnost naspram haosa.

As I know from working with street children in Brazil,

Iz mog iskustva u radu sa decom sa ulica u Brazilu,

Mom's boyfriend is often a really, really dangerous person for kids.

mamin dečko je često veoma, veoma opasna osoba po decu.

Now the right has been screaming about this asteroid since the 1960s,

Desnica vrišti o ovom asteroidu još od '60-ih,

and the left has been saying, "It's not a problem. It's not a problem."

dok levica govori: "Pa to nije problem. Nemamo problem."

The left has been very reluctant to say

Levica je veoma neodlučna da kaže

that marriage is actually good for women and for children.

kako je brak zapravo dobar za žene i za decu.

Now let me be clear. I'm not blaming the women here.

Da budem jasan. Ne krivim žene.

I'm actually more critical of the men

Zapravo, više sam kritičan prema muškarcima

who won't take responsibility for their own children

koji ne žele da preuzmu odgovornost za sopstvenu decu

and of an economic system that makes it difficult

i prema ekonomskom sistemu koji mnogim muškarcima

for many men to earn enough money to support those children.

onemogućava da zarade novac kako bi izdržavali svoju decu.

But even if you blame nobody, it still is a national problem,

Međutim, čak i ako ne krivite nikoga, to je i dalje nacionalni problem,

and one side has been more concerned about it than the other.

za koji je jedna strana više zabrinuta u odnosu na drugu.

The New York Times finally noticed this asteroid

Njujork Tajms je konačno primetio ovaj asteroid

with a front-page story last July

kojem je posvetio priču na naslovnoj stranici prošlog jula

showing how the decline of marriage contributes to inequality.

pokazujući kako opadanje broja brakova doprinosi porastu nejednakosti.

We are becoming a nation of just two classes.

Postajemo nacija sa samo dve klase.

When Americans go to college and marry each other,

Oni Amerikanci koji odu na koledž i stupe u brak,

they have very low divorce rates.

imaju veoma niske stope razvoda.

They earn a lot of money, they invest that money in their kids,

Oni uglavnom zarađuju mnogo, ulažu taj novac u svoju decu,

some of them become tiger mothers,

neke od tih majki postaju prave majke-tigrice,

the kids rise to their full potential,

deca ostvaruju svoj pun potencijal i potom se svrstavaju

and the kids go on to become

the top two lines in this graph.

u dve najviše linije na ovom grafikonu.

And then there's everybody else:

A onda dolaze svi ostali:

the children who don't benefit from a stable marriage,

deca koja ne uživaju dobrobiti stabilnog braka,

who don't have as much invested in them,

u koju se ne ulaže istom merom,

who don't grow up in a stable environment,

koja ne odrastaju u stabilnom okruženju

and who go on to become the bottom three lines in that graph.

i koja potom postaju tri donje linije u tom grafikonu.

So once again, we see that these two graphs are actually saying the same thing.

Ponovo vidimo da ova dva grafikona zapravo pokazuju istu stvar.

As before, we've got a problem, we've got to start working on this,

Kao i pre, imamo problem, moramo da počnemo da radimo na njemu,

we've got to do something,

moramo da preduzmemo nešto,

and what's wrong with you people that you don't see my threat?

i ne znam zašto ne vidite ovu pretnju?

But if everybody could just take off their partisan blinders,

Kada bi svi bili u stanju da skinu svoje sledbeničke naočare,

we'd see that these two problems actually

videli bi da je zapravo najbolje

are best addressed together.

ako se pozabavimo ovim dvama problema zajedno.

Because if you really care about income inequality,

Ako zaista brinete zbog nejednakosti u primanjima,

you might want to talk to some evangelical Christian groups

možda biste mogli da razgovarate sa nekim evangelističkim hrišćanskim grupama

that are working on ways to promote marriage.

koje na različite načine promovišu brak.

But then you're going to run smack into the problem

Međutim, tada ćete udariti direktno u problem

that women don't generally want to marry someone

da žene uglavnom ne žele da se udaju za nekoga ko nema posao.

who doesn't have a job.

So if you really care about strengthening families,

Ako zaista želite da ojačate porodice,

you might want to talk to some liberal groups

mogli biste porazgovarati sa nekom od liberalnih grupa

who are working on promoting educational equality,

koje promovišu jednakost u obrazovanju,

who are working on raising the minimum wage,

koje rade na podizanju minimalnih plata

who are working on finding ways to stop so many men

i na nalaženju načina da zaustave da toliko mnogo muškaraca

from being sucked into the criminal justice system and

bude uvučeno u sistem krivičnog pravosuđa

taken out of the marriage market for their whole lives.

i sasvim odvučeno od prilika za brak.

So to conclude, there are at least four asteroids headed our way.

Da zaključim, barem četiri asteroida nam idu u susret.

How many of you can see all four?

Koliko nas je u stanju da vidi sva četiri?

Please raise your hand right now if you're willing to admit

Molim vas, podignite desnu ruku ako ste voljni da priznate

that all four of these are national problems.

da su sva četiri asteroida nacionalni problemi.

Please raise your hands.

Molim vas da podignete ruke.

Okay, almost all of you.

U redu, gotovo svi.

Well, congratulations, you guys are the inaugural members

Pa dobro, čestitam, vi ste svečani članovi

of the Asteroids Club, which is a club

Kluba asteroida,

kluba za sve Amerikance koji su voljni da priznaju

for all Americans who are willing to admit

that the other side actually might have a point.

da je druga strana zapravo možda u pravu.

In the Asteroids Club, we don't start by looking for common ground.

U Klubu asteroida, ne počinjemo tražeći zajedničke osnove.

Common ground is often very hard to find.

Njih je često jako teško pronaći.

No, we start by looking for common threats

Ne, počinjemo tražeći zajedničke pretnje

because common threats make common ground.

jer zajedničke pretnje čine te zajedničke osnove.

Now, am I being naive? Is it naive to think

E sad, da li sam ja naivan?

Da li je naivno misliti da bi ljudi ikada mogli da spuste oružje,

that people could ever lay down their swords,

and left and right could actually work together?

te da bi levica i desnica zaista mogle sarađivati?

I don't think so, because it happens,

Mislim da nije, jer se dešava,

not all that often, but there are a variety of examples that point the way.

možda ne tako često, ali ima mnogo različitih primera koji pokazuju da je moguće.

This is something we can do.

To je ono što mi možemo učiniti.

Because Americans on both sides care about the decline in civility,

Jer Amerikanci na obe strane brinu o nestajanju civilizovanosti

and they've formed dozens of organizations,

i oformili su na desetine organizacija,

at the national level, such as this one,

na nacionalnom nivou, poput ove,

down to many local organizations,

do mnogih lokalnih organizacija,

such as To The Village Square in Tallahassee, Florida,

kao "To the Village Square" iz Talahasija na Floridi,

which tries to bring state leaders together to help facilitate

koja pokušava da spoji državne vođe

kako bi pomogla u ostvarivanju ljudskog odnosa saradnje

that sort of working together human relationship

that's necessary to solve Florida's problems.

koji je neophodan za rešavanje problema Floride.

Americans on both sides care about global poverty and AIDS,

Amerikanci sa obe strane brinu o globalnom siromaštvu i AIDS-u

and on so many humanitarian issues,

i o mnogim humanitarnim pitanjima.

liberals and evangelicals are actually natural allies,

Liberali i evanđelisti su zapravo prirodni saveznici,

and at times they really have worked together

a povremeno su zaista i radili zajedno kako bi rešili ove probleme.

to solve these problems.

And most surprisingly to me, they sometimes can even see

A ono što mene najviše iznenađuje je da se oni ponekad

eye to eye on criminal justice.

mogu usaglasiti i oko krivičnog pravosuđa.

For example, the incarceration rate, the prison population

Na primer, stepen pritvaranja u zatvore, broj ljudi u zatvorima

in this country has quadrupled since 1980.

u ovoj zemlji se učetverostručio od '80-ih.

Now this is a social disaster,

To je prava socijalna katastrofa i liberali su jako zabrinuti zbog toga.

and liberals are very concerned about this.

The Southern Poverty Law Center is often fighting

Južnjački pravni centar za siromašne se često bori protiv

the prison-industrial complex, fighting to prevent a system

zatvorsko-industrijskih kompleksa, bore se da spreče sistem

that's just sucking in more and more poor young men.

koji usisava sve više siromašnih mladih muškaraca.

But are conservatives happy about this?

Ali, zar su konzervativci srećni zbog toga?

Well, Grover Norquist isn't, because this system

Pa, Grover Norkvist nije, jer takav sistem

costs an unbelievable amount of money.

košta neverovatne sume novca.

And so, because the prison-industrial complex

I upravo zbog toga što zatvorsko-industrijski kompleks

is bankrupting our states and corroding our souls,

vodi naše države ka bankrotu i uništava naše duše,

groups of fiscal conservatives and Christian conservatives

grupe fiskalnih i hrišćanskih konzervativaca

have come together to form a group called Right on Crime.

su se spojile i oformile grupu pod nazivom "Pravo na zločin".

And at times they have worked with the Southern Poverty Law Center

Povremeno su sarađivali sa Južnjački pravnim centrom za siromašne

to oppose the building of new prisons

kako bi se suprostavili izgradnji novih zatvora

and to work for reforms that will make the justice system

i delovali ka reformama koje bi učinile pravosudni sistem

more efficient and more humane.

efikasnijim i humanijim.

So this is possible. We can do it.

Znači da je moguće. Mi to možemo.

Let us therefore go to battle stations,

Krenimo stoga u borbene položaje,

not to fight each other,

ne jedni protiv drugih,

but to begin deflecting these incoming asteroids.

već da počnemo preusmeravamo ove asteroide koji nam se približavaju.

And let our first mission be to press Congress

I neka naša prva misija bude da pritisnemo Kongres

to reform itself, before it's too late for our nation.

da se reformiše pre nego što bude kasno za našu naciju.

Thank you. (Applause)

Hvala vam. (Aplauz)