Anne Milgram: Why smart statistics are the key to fighting crime

Prevodilac: Branka Malenica Lektor: Ivana Krivokuća

In 2007, I became the attorney general

Postala sam državni tužilac 2007. godine

of the state of New Jersey.

u državi Nju Džerzi.

Before that, I'd been a criminal prosecutor,

Pre toga bila sam javni tužilac,

first in the Manhattan district attorney's office,

prvo u kancelariji okružnog tužioca na Menhetnu,

and then at the United States Department of Justice.

a zatim u Ministarstvu pravde Sjedinjenih Država.

But when I became the attorney general,

Ali, kada sam postala državni tužilac,

two things happened that changed the way I see criminal justice.

desile su se dve stvari koje su promenile moj stav prema pravosudnom sistemu.

The first is that I asked what I thought

Prvo je bilo to što sam postavljala pitanja

were really basic questions.

za koja sam mislila da su sasvim obična.

I wanted to understand who we were arresting,

Želela sam da razumem koga hapsimo,

who we were charging,

koga tužimo,

and who we were putting in our nation's jails

i koga stavljamo u državne pritvore i zatvore.

and prisons.

Takođe sam htela da razumem

I also wanted to understand

if we were making decisions

da li pravimo dobre odluke

in a way that made us safer.

zbog kojih ćemo svi biti sigurniji.

And I couldn't get this information out.

Ali, nisam uspevala da dobijem povratne informacije.

It turned out that most big criminal justice agencies

Ispostavilo se da se većina krivično-pravnih agencija

like my own

poput moje

didn't track the things that matter.

ne bavi stvarima koje su zaista bitne.

So after about a month of being incredibly frustrated,

Zato sam nakon neverovatno frustrirajućih mesec dana

I walked down into a conference room

otišla do konferencijske sale

that was filled with detectives

u kojoj je bilo mnogo detektiva

and stacks and stacks of case files,

i ogromnih hrpa slučajeva,

and the detectives were sitting there

detektivi su sedeli tamo sa žutim notesima hvatajući beleške.

with yellow legal pads taking notes.

They were trying to get the information

Pokušavali su da dođu do informacija

I was looking for

koje sam tražila

by going through case by case

proveravajući slučaj za slučajem

for the past five years.

u proteklih pet godina.

And as you can imagine,

I kao što možete zamisliti,

when we finally got the results, they weren't good.

kada smo konačno došli do rezultata, oni nisu bili dobri.

It turned out that we were doing

Ispostavilo se da smo radili

a lot of low-level drug cases

na sitnim narko slučajevima

on the streets just around the corner

sa ulica iza ćoška naše kancelarije u Trentonu.

from our office in Trenton.

The second thing that happened

Druga stvar koja se dogodila

is that I spent the day in the Camden, New Jersey police department.

je to da sam provela dan u policijskoj stanici u Kemdenu u Nju Džerziju.

Now, at that time, Camden, New Jersey,

U to vreme, Kemden u Nju Džerziju

was the most dangerous city in America.

je bio najopasniji grad u Americi.

I ran the Camden Police Department because of that.

Zbog toga sam i vodila policijsku stanicu u Kemdenu.

I spent the day in the police department,

Provela sam dan u toj stanici,

and I was taken into a room with senior police officials,

i uveli su me u prostoriju u kojoj su bili stariji policajci

all of whom were working hard

koji su predano radili

and trying very hard to reduce crime in Camden.

na tome da smanje stopu kriminala u Kemdenu.

And what I saw in that room,

Ono što sam videla u toj prostoriji,

as we talked about how to reduce crime,

dok smo pričali o tome kako možemo smanjiti kriminal,

were a series of officers with a lot of little yellow sticky notes.

bilo je mnogo policajaca sa mnogo lepljivih žutih blokčića.

And they would take a yellow sticky and they would write something on it

Oni bi uzeli taj žuti lepljivi papirić i napisali nešto na njemu

and they would put it up on a board.

i onda bi to stavili na tablu.

And one of them said, "We had a robbery two weeks ago.

Jedan reče: "Bila je pljačka pre dve nedelje.

We have no suspects."

Nemamo osumnjičenih".

And another said, "We had a shooting in this neighborhood last week. We have no suspects."

Drugi reče: "Prošle nedelje je bila pucnjava u ovom komšiluku.

Nema osumnjičenih".

We weren't using data-driven policing.

Nismo se bavili policijskim radom baziranim na informacijama.

We were essentially trying to fight crime

Borili smo se protiv kriminala

with yellow Post-it notes.

sa žutim lepljivim papirićima.

Now, both of these things made me realize

Obe ove situacije su me naterale da shvatim

fundamentally that we were failing.

da zapravo ništa nismo uspevali.

We didn't even know who was in our criminal justice system,

Nismo čak ni znali ko je bio u našem pravosudnom sistemu,

we didn't have any data about the things that mattered,

nismo imali podatke o stvarima koje su bile bitne,

and we didn't share data or use analytics

nismo delili podatke, ni koristili analitičke sisteme

or tools to help us make better decisions

ni alate za donošenje boljih odluka i suzbijanje kriminala.

and to reduce crime.

And for the first time, I started to think

I po prvi put, počela sam da razmišljam

about how we made decisions.

o tome kako smo uopšte donosili odluke.

When I was an assistant D.A.,

Kad sam bila asistent okružnog tužioca,

and when I was a federal prosecutor,

a onda javni tužilac,

I looked at the cases in front of me,

posmatrala sam slučajeve pred sobom

and I generally made decisions based on my instinct

i donosila odluke zasnovane na mom instinktu

and my experience.

i iskustvu.

When I became attorney general,

Kada sam postala državni tužilac,

I could look at the system as a whole,

mogla sam da vidim sistem u celosti

and what surprised me is that I found

i iznenadilo me je saznanje

that that was exactly how we were doing it

da je upravo to bio način na koji smo radili

across the entire system --

u celom sistemu,

in police departments, in prosecutors's offices,

u policijskim stanicama, u kancelarijama tužilaca,

in courts and in jails.

u sudovima i u zatvorima.

And what I learned very quickly

I vrlo brzo sam naučila

is that we weren't doing a good job.

da nismo obavljali dobar posao.

So I wanted to do things differently.

Zato sam htela da uradim nešto drugačije.

I wanted to introduce data and analytics

Želela sam da uvedem analitiku i podatke

and rigorous statistical analysis

i rigorozne statističke analize

into our work.

u naš sistem rada.

In short, I wanted to moneyball criminal justice.

Ukratko, želela sam da uvedem "Manibol" u krivičnu pravdu.

Now, moneyball, as many of you know,

Kao što možda znate, "Manibol" se odnosi

is what the Oakland A's did,

na ono što su uradili Oukland Atletiks,

where they used smart data and statistics

upotrebivši podatke i statistiku

to figure out how to pick players

da bi shvatili kako odabrati igrače koji će dobijati utakmice

that would help them win games,

and they went from a system that was based on baseball scouts

i tako su od sistema

u kojem su bejzbol posmatrači išli na teren i posmatrali igrače

who used to go out and watch players

and use their instinct and experience,

i birali ih pomoću svog instinkta i iskustva,

the scouts' instincts and experience,

posmatračkog iskustva i instinkta,

to pick players, from one to use

prešli na sistem

smart data and rigorous statistical analysis

baziran na podacima i rigoroznoj statističkoj analizi

to figure out how to pick players that would help them win games.

ne bi li shvatili koje igrače treba da biraju da bi dobili utakmice.

It worked for the Oakland A's,

To je uspelo Oukland Atletiksima,

and it worked in the state of New Jersey.

a uspelo je i u državi Nju Džerzi.

We took Camden off the top of the list

Skinuli smo Kemden sa vrha liste

as the most dangerous city in America.

najopasnijih gradova u Americi.

We reduced murders there by 41 percent,

Stopa ubistava se smanjila za 41 odsto,

which actually means 37 lives were saved.

što znači da je spašeno 37 života.

And we reduced all crime in the city by 26 percent.

Stopu kriminala u gradu smo smanjili za 26 odsto.

We also changed the way we did criminal prosecutions.

Takođe smo promenili način na koji smo vodili krivična gonjenja.

So we went from doing low-level drug crimes

Tako smo sa sitnih narko slučajeva

that were outside our building

ispred naše zgrade

to doing cases of statewide importance,

prešli na slučajeve od državnog značaja,

on things like reducing violence with the most violent offenders,

na slučajeve suzbijanja nasilja kod najnasilnijih prestupnika,

prosecuting street gangs,

gonjenje uličnih bandi,

gun and drug trafficking, and political corruption.

bavili smo se trgovinom oružja i drogom i političkom korupcijom.

And all of this matters greatly,

Sve ovo je izuzetno važno

because public safety to me

jer mislim da je obezbeđivanje

is the most important function of government.

javne bezbednosti najvažnija funkcija vlade.

If we're not safe, we can't be educated,

Ako nismo sigurni, ne možemo se ni obrazovati,

we can't be healthy,

ne možemo da budemo zdravi,

we can't do any of the other things we want to do in our lives.

ne možemo da radimo ništa što želimo da radimo u životu.

And we live in a country today

I danas živimo u zemlji

where we face serious criminal justice problems.

gde smo suočeni sa ozbiljnim problemima u pravosudnom sistemu.

We have 12 million arrests every single year.

Svake godine se izvrši 12 miliona hapšenja.

The vast majority of those arrests

Velika većina ovih hapšenja

are for low-level crimes, like misdemeanors,

su manji prestupi, poput prekršaja,

70 to 80 percent.

70 do 80 odsto.

Less than five percent of all arrests

Manje od pet odsto svih hapšenja

are for violent crime.

vezana su za nasilne zločine.

Yet we spend 75 billion,

Ipak, mi trošimo 75 milijardi dolara,

that's b for billion,

milijardi sa velikim M,

dollars a year on state and local corrections costs.

godišnje na lokalne i državne zatvore.

Right now, today, we have 2.3 million people

Upravo sada, danas, 2,3 miliona ljudi

in our jails and prisons.

se nalazi u zatvoru ili pritvoru.

And we face unbelievable public safety challenges

I javna bezbednost se nalazi pred neverovatnom izazovima

because we have a situation

jer imamo situaciju

in which two thirds of the people in our jails

u kojoj dve trećine zatvorenika

are there waiting for trial.

čeka na suđenje.

They haven't yet been convicted of a crime.

Oni još uvek nisu ni optuženi za zločine.

They're just waiting for their day in court.

Samo čekaju na svoj dan suđenja.

And 67 percent of people come back.

67 odsto ljudi se vrati u društvo.

Our recidivism rate is amongst the highest in the world.

Stopa našeg recidivizma je među najvišima u svetu.

Almost seven in 10 people who are released

Skoro sedam od 10 otpuštenih zatvorenika

from prison will be rearrested

će ponovo biti uhapšeni

in a constant cycle of crime and incarceration.

u konstantnom krugu kriminala i zatvoreništva.

So when I started my job at the Arnold Foundation,

Kada sam počela da radim u Fondaciji Arnold,

I came back to looking at a lot of these questions,

ponovo sam počela da se bavim većinom istih pitanja,

i ponovo sam počela da mislim o tome kako smo koristili podatke i analitiku

and I came back to thinking about how

we had used data and analytics to transform

da bismo promenili način na koji smo se borili protiv kriminala u Nju Džerziju.

the way we did criminal justice in New Jersey.

And when I look at the criminal justice system

I kada pogledam pravosudni sistem

in the United States today,

u SAD-u danas,

I feel the exact same way that I did

osećam isto ono što sam osećala

about the state of New Jersey when I started there,

u državi Nju Džerzi kada sam tamo radila,

which is that we absolutely have to do better,

a to je da apsolutno moramo da funkcionišemo bolje,

and I know that we can do better.

a znam da možemo bolje.

So I decided to focus

Tako sam odlučila da se fokusiram

on using data and analytics

na upotrebu podataka i analize

za lakše donošenje ključnih odluka

to help make the most critical decision

in public safety,

o javnoj bezbednosti,

and that decision is the determination

a te odluke se odnose na odlučivanje

of whether, when someone has been arrested,

toga da, kada je neko uhapšen,

whether they pose a risk to public safety

da li taj neko predstavlja opasnost za okolinu,

and should be detained,

i treba li ga zadržati,

or whether they don't pose a risk to public safety

ili taj neko ne predstavlja opasnost za okolinu

and should be released.

i treba da bude pušten.

Everything that happens in criminal cases

Sve što se desi u kriminalnim slučajevima

comes out of this one decision.

proizilazi iz samo te jedne odluke.

It impacts everything.

Ona utiče na sve.

It impacts sentencing.

Utiče na kaznu.

It impacts whether someone gets drug treatment.

Utiče na to hoće li nekome biti prepisani lekovi.

It impacts crime and violence.

Utiče na kriminal i na nasilje.

And when I talk to judges around the United States,

A kada pričam sa sudijama širom SAD-a,

which I do all the time now,

što sada konstantno radim,

they all say the same thing,

svi govore jednu te istu stvar,

which is that we put dangerous people in jail,

a to je da opasne ljude stavljamo u zatvor,

and we let non-dangerous, nonviolent people out.

a bezopasne, nenasilne puštamo napolje.

They mean it and they believe it.

Oni to misle i u to veruju.

But when you start to look at the data,

Ali, ako pogledate podatke

which, by the way, the judges don't have,

koje, uzgred rečeno, sudije ni nemaju,

when we start to look at the data,

kada ih proučimo,

what we find time and time again,

iznova i iznova se pokazuje

is that this isn't the case.

da to uopšte nije tačno.

We find low-risk offenders,

Naći ćemo bezopasne prestupnike

which makes up 50 percent of our entire criminal justice population,

koji čine do 50 odsto krivičnih slučajeva,

we find that they're in jail.

i saznaćemo da su svi oni u zatvoru.

Take Leslie Chew, who was a Texas man

Uzmite na primer slučaj Leslija Čua, čoveka iz Teksasa,

who stole four blankets on a cold winter night.

koji je jedne hladne zimske noći ukrao četiri pokrivača.

He was arrested, and he was kept in jail

Uhapšen je i držan u pritvoru

on 3,500 dollars bail,

pod kaucijom od 3.500 dolara,

an amount that he could not afford to pay.

iznosom koji nikako nije mogao da plati.

And he stayed in jail for eight months

I ostao je tamo osam meseci

until his case came up for trial,

dok njegov slučaj nije stigao na suđenje.

at a cost to taxpayers of more than 9,000 dollars.

Sve to je poreske obveznike koštalo više od 9000 dolara.

And at the other end of the spectrum,

S druge strane, i mi radimo podjednako loš posao.

we're doing an equally terrible job.

The people who we find

Ljudi za koje mislimo da su izuzetno opasni zločinci,

are the highest-risk offenders,

the people who we think have the highest likelihood

za koje mislimo da imaju najveću šansu

of committing a new crime if they're released,

da će nakon izlaska iz zatvora napraviti nov zločin,

we see nationally that 50 percent of those people

vidimo da na nacionalnom nivou 50 odsto ovih ljudi

are being released.

biva pušteno na slobodu.

The reason for this is the way we make decisions.

Razlog tome je način na koji donosimo odluke.

Judges have the best intentions

Sudije imaju najbolje namere

when they make these decisions about risk,

kada donose odluke vezane za bezbednost,

but they're making them subjectively.

ali oni ih donose subjektivno.

They're like the baseball scouts 20 years ago

Oni su poput bejzbol posmatrača od pre 20 godina

who were using their instinct and their experience

koji su koristili svoj instinkt i iskustvo

to try to decide what risk someone poses.

kako bi odlučili koliko je ko opasan.

They're being subjective,

Oni su subjektivni,

and we know what happens with subjective decision making,

i znamo šta se dešava kada se odluke donose subjektivno,

which is that we are often wrong.

a to je da često grešimo.

What we need in this space

Ono što nam sada treba

are strong data and analytics.

su sigurni podaci i analitički sistemi.

What I decided to look for

Ja sam zato odlučila da tražim

was a strong data and analytic risk assessment tool,

sigurne podatke i analitičke alatke za procenu rizika,

something that would let judges actually understand

nešto što bi sudijama pomoglo da razumeju,

with a scientific and objective way

na naučni i objektivni način,

what the risk was that was posed

kakav rizik predstavlja osoba koja stoji pred njima.

by someone in front of them.

I looked all over the country,

Tražila sam širom čitave zemlje

and I found that between five and 10 percent

i saznala sam da između 5 i 10 odsto

of all U.S. jurisdictions

svih jurisdikcija u SAD-u

actually use any type of risk assessment tool,

zapravo koriste neki tip alata za procenu rizika,

and when I looked at these tools,

a kada sam potražila te alatke

I quickly realized why.

ubrzo sam shvatila zašto je to tako.

They were unbelievably expensive to administer,

One su bile neverovatno skupe,

they were time-consuming,

zahtevale su previše vremena,

they were limited to the local jurisdiction

bile su ograničene na lokalnu jurisdikciju

in which they'd been created.

u kojoj su napravljene.

So basically, they couldn't be scaled

U suštini, nisu mogle da se savladaju

or transferred to other places.

niti da se premeste u druga mesta.

So I went out and built a phenomenal team

Zato sam oformila fenomenalni tim

of data scientists and researchers

naučnika, istraživača i statističara podataka

and statisticians

to build a universal risk assessment tool,

da naprave univerzalni instrument za procenu rizika,

so that every single judge in the United States of America

kako bi svi do jednog sudije u SAD-u

can have an objective, scientific measure of risk.

imali objektivnu, naučnu meru rizika.

In the tool that we've built,

Za potrebe ovog instrumenta

what we did was we collected 1.5 million cases

prikupili smo 1,5 miliona slučajeva

from all around the United States,

iz svih krajeva Sjedinjenih Država.

from cities, from counties,

Iz gradova, iz opština,

from every single state in the country,

iz svake države u zemlji,

the federal districts.

iz federalnih okruga.

And with those 1.5 million cases,

U tih 1,5 miliona slučajeva

which is the largest data set on pretrial

koji čine najveću bazu

in the United States today,

pretkrivičnih podataka u SAD-u danas,

we were able to basically find that there were

uspeli smo da nađemo

900-plus risk factors that we could look at

više od 900 rizičnih faktora koji nam mogu služiti za primer

to try to figure out what mattered most.

da bismo shvatili šta je najbitnije.

And we found that there were nine specific things

Otkrili smo da postoji devet specifičnosti

that mattered all across the country

koje su bitne u svim delovima zemlje

and that were the most highly predictive of risk.

i koje su najčešće ukazivale na rizik.

And so we built a universal risk assessment tool.

I tako smo napravili taj univerzalni instrument za procenu.

And it looks like this.

On izgleda ovako.

As you'll see, we put some information in,

Kao što ćete videti, uneli smo neke podatke,

but most of it is incredibly simple,

ali većina je vrlo jednostavna,

it's easy to use,

lako se upotrebljava,

it focuses on things like the defendant's prior convictions,

fokusira se na stvari kao što su pređašnji prestupi okrivljenih,

whether they've been sentenced to incarceration,

na to jesu li služili kaznu,

whether they've engaged in violence before,

jesu li i ranije imali nasilne istupe,

whether they've even failed to come back to court.

jesu li ikada propustili ročište na sudu.

And with this tool, we can predict three things.

Sa ovim instrumentom možemo da predvidimo tri stvari.

First, whether or not someone will commit

Prvo, hoće li neko napraviti novi zločin

a new crime if they're released.

nakon što ga puste iz zatvora.

Second, for the first time,

Drugo, po prvi put,

and I think this is incredibly important,

a ja mislim da je to izuzetno važno,

we can predict whether someone will commit

možemo da predvidimo hoće li neko

an act of violence if they're released.

počiniti nasilje nakon što ga puste.

And that's the single most important thing

A to je ubedljivo najvažnija stvar koju sudije kažu kada razgovarate s njima.

that judges say when you talk to them.

And third, we can predict whether someone

I treće, možemo da predvidimo

will come back to court.

hoće li se neko vratiti na sud.

And every single judge in the United States of America can use it,

Svaki sudija u Sjedinjenim Državama može da ga koristi

because it's been created on a universal data set.

jer je napravljen na univerzalnom skupu podataka.

What judges see if they run the risk assessment tool

Ono što sudije primete kada koriste ovaj instrument

is this -- it's a dashboard.

je sledeće - to je jedna komandna tabla.

At the top, you see the New Criminal Activity Score,

Na vrhu vidite "Registar novih kriminalnih aktivnosti",

six of course being the highest,

šest je najviši stepen,

and then in the middle you see, "Elevated risk of violence."

a u sredini ćete videti "Povišen rizik od nasilja".

What that says is that this person

To govori da je ta osoba

is someone who has an elevated risk of violence

neko sa povišenim rizikom od nasilja

that the judge should look twice at.

i da sudije treba da obrate pažnju na nju.

And then, towards the bottom,

Dole prema dnu ćete videti

you see the Failure to Appear Score,

"Registar nepojavljivanja na sudu"

which again is the likelihood

što opet ukazuje na to

that someone will come back to court.

kolike su šanse da se neko ponovo pojavi na sudu.

Now I want to say something really important.

Sada želim da kažem nešto izuzetno važno.

It's not that I think we should be eliminating

Ja ne mislim da bi trebalo da eliminišemo

the judge's instinct and experience

instinkt i iskustvo sudije

from this process.

iz ovog procesa.

I don't.

Ne mislim to.

I actually believe the problem that we see

Ja zapravo verujem da problem koji imamo

and the reason that we have these incredible system errors,

i razlog zbog kojeg dolazi do neverovatnih grešaka u sistemu,

where we're incarcerating low-level, nonviolent people

zbog čega zatvaramo bezopasne, nenasilne ljude,

and we're releasing high-risk, dangerous people,

a puštamo izuzetno opasne, nasilne ljude,

is that we don't have an objective measure of risk.

leži u tome što ne postoji objektivna mera rizika.

But what I believe should happen

Ali ja verujem u sledeće,

is that we should take that data-driven risk assessment

da procene o riziku koje se zasnivaju na podacima

and combine that with the judge's instinct and experience

treba da ukombinujemo sa instinktom i iskustvom sudija

to lead us to better decision making.

kako bismo donosili bolje odluke.

The tool went statewide in Kentucky on July 1,

Ova alatka je počela da se koristi širom države Kentaki prvog jula,

and we're about to go up in a number of other U.S. jurisdictions.

a to uskoro očekuje i druge jurisdikcije u SAD.

Our goal, quite simply, is that every single judge

Naš cilj je da, jednostavno, svaki sudija u SAD-u

in the United States will use a data-driven risk tool

počne da koristi ovu alatku u narednih pet godina.

within the next five years.

We're now working on risk tools

Sada radimo na alatkama

for prosecutors and for police officers as well,

za tužioce i policajce, takođe,

to try to take a system that runs today

kako bismo sistem koji je i danas

in America the same way it did 50 years ago,

na snazi u Americi, kao i pre 50 godina,

based on instinct and experience,

sistem baziran na instinktu i iskustvu,

and make it into one that runs

pretvorili u onaj koji se bazira na podacima i analizi.

on data and analytics.

Now, the great news about all this,

Odlična vest u vezi sa svim tim,

and we have a ton of work left to do,

a ostalo nam je zaista puno posla,

and we have a lot of culture to change,

i mnogo toga da promenimo,

but the great news about all of it

ali odlična stvar u vezi sa tim

is that we know it works.

je činjenica da sada znamo da to radi.

It's why Google is Google,

Zato je Gugl - Gugl,

and it's why all these baseball teams use moneyball

i zato svi bejzbol timovi koriste "Manibol"

to win games.

da dobiju utakmice.

The great news for us as well

Još jedna odlična vest za nas

is that it's the way that we can transform

je to što ovako možemo promeniti

the American criminal justice system.

američki pravosudni sistem.

It's how we can make our streets safer,

Tako naše ulice možemo učiniti bezbednijima,

we can reduce our prison costs,

možemo smanjiti troškove zatvora,

and we can make our system much fairer

i sam sistem može postati pravedniji

and more just.

i puno više fer.

Some people call it data science.

Neki to zovu naukom o podacima.

I call it moneyballing criminal justice.

Ja to zovem Manibol pravosudni sistem.

Thank you.

Hvala vam.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)