Anne Milgram: Why smart statistics are the key to fighting crime

220,711 views ใƒป 2014-01-28

TED


์•„๋ž˜ ์˜๋ฌธ์ž๋ง‰์„ ๋”๋ธ”ํด๋ฆญํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์˜์ƒ์ด ์žฌ์ƒ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฒˆ์—ญ: Sungho Yoo ๊ฒ€ํ† : Moon ryoung Heo
00:12
In 2007, I became the attorney general
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2007๋…„์— ์ €๋Š” ๋‰ด์ €์ง€์ฃผ์˜
00:15
of the state of New Jersey.
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๋ฒ•๋ฌด์žฅ๊ด€์œผ๋กœ ์ž„๋ช…๋ฐ›์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:17
Before that, I'd been a criminal prosecutor,
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๊ทธ์ „๊นŒ์ง€๋Š” ๊ฒ€์‚ฌ๋กœ ์ผํ–ˆ์—ˆ์ฃ .
00:19
first in the Manhattan district attorney's office,
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์ฒ˜์Œ์—” ๋งจํ•˜ํƒ„ ์ง€๋ฐฉ ๊ฒ€์‚ฌ ์‚ฌ๋ฌด์‹ค์—์„œ
00:22
and then at the United States Department of Justice.
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๊ทธ ๋‹ค์Œ์—” ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๋ฒ•๋ฌด๋ถ€์—์„œ ๊ทผ๋ฌดํ–ˆ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:24
But when I became the attorney general,
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์ œ๊ฐ€ ๋ฒ•๋ฌด์žฅ๊ด€์ด ๋˜์—ˆ์„ ๋•Œ,
00:26
two things happened that changed the way I see criminal justice.
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์ œ๊ฐ€ ํ˜•์‚ฌ ์ œ๋„๋ฅผ ๋ฐ”๋ผ๋ณด๋Š” ๋ˆˆ์„ ์™„์ „ํžˆ ๋ฐ”๊พธ์–ด ๋†“์€ ๋‘ ๊ฐ€์ง€ ์ผ์ด ์ผ์–ด๋‚ฌ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:30
The first is that I asked what I thought
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์ฒซ๋ฒˆ์งธ ์‚ฌ๊ฑด์€ ์ € ์ž์‹ ์—๊ฒŒ ํ•ญ์ƒ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๊ธฐ๋ณธ์ ์ธ ์งˆ๋ฌธ๋“ค์ด๋ผ๊ณ 
00:32
were really basic questions.
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์ƒ๊ฐํ•ด์™”๋˜ ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์— ๋‹ค์‹œ ํ•œ๋ฒˆ ๋ฌผ์–ด๋ณด์•˜์ฃ .
00:35
I wanted to understand who we were arresting,
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์ €๋Š” ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๋ˆ„๊ตฌ๋ฅผ ์ฒดํฌํ•˜๊ณ 
00:37
who we were charging,
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๋ˆ„๊ตฌ์—๊ฒŒ ๋ฒŒ๊ธˆ์„ ๋ถ€๊ณผํ•˜๋ฉฐ
00:39
and who we were putting in our nation's jails
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๋ˆ„๊ตฌ๋ฅผ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€์˜ ๊ฐ์˜ฅ๊ณผ ํ˜•๋ฌด์†Œ์— ๊ฐ€๋‘๋Š”์ง€
00:41
and prisons.
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์ดํ•ดํ•˜๊ณ  ์‹ถ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:43
I also wanted to understand
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๋˜ํ•œ, ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์ง„์ •์œผ๋กœ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ ์ž์‹ ์„ ๋”์šฑ ์•ˆ์ „ํ•˜๊ฒŒ
00:44
if we were making decisions
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๋ณดํ˜ธํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๋ฐฉํ–ฅ์œผ๋กœ
00:46
in a way that made us safer.
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์˜์‚ฌ ๊ฒฐ์ •์„ ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š”์ง€์˜ ์—ฌ๋ถ€๋„ ์•Œ๊ณ  ์‹ถ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:48
And I couldn't get this information out.
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์ด ์ •๋ณด๋“ค์ด ๋ฐ–์œผ๋กœ ์ƒˆ์–ด๋‚˜๊ฐ€๊ฒŒ ํ•  ์ˆ˜๋Š” ์—†์—ˆ์ง€์š”.
00:51
It turned out that most big criminal justice agencies
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์ œ ๋ถ€์„œ์™€ ๊ฐ™์€
00:55
like my own
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๊ณ ์œ„ ์‚ฌ๋ฒ• ๊ธฐ๊ด€๋“ค์€
00:56
didn't track the things that matter.
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์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์„ ๊ณ„์† ์กฐ์‚ฌํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์ง€ ์•Š๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด ๋ฐํ˜€์กŒ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:58
So after about a month of being incredibly frustrated,
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ํ•œ ๋‹ฌ ์ •๋„ ์—„์ฒญ๋‚œ ์ขŒ์ ˆ๊ฐ์„ ๊ฒช์€ ํ›„์—,
01:02
I walked down into a conference room
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์ €๋Š” ํ˜•์‚ฌ๋“ค๊ณผ
01:04
that was filled with detectives
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์ˆ˜์‚ฌ ๊ธฐ๋ก ๋”๋ฏธ๋“ค๋กœ ๊ฐ€๋“์ฐจ ์žˆ๋˜
01:06
and stacks and stacks of case files,
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ํšŒ์˜์‹ค๋กœ ๋“ค์–ด๊ฐ”์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:08
and the detectives were sitting there
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ํ˜•์‚ฌ๋“ค์€ ๋ฐฉ์— ์•‰์•„์„œ
01:10
with yellow legal pads taking notes.
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๋…ธ๋ž€์ƒ‰ ๋ฉ”๋ชจ์žฅ์— ๊ธฐ๋ก์„ ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์—ˆ์ฃ .
01:12
They were trying to get the information
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๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์ฐพ๊ณ  ์žˆ๋˜ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ
01:13
I was looking for
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์–ป๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด
01:15
by going through case by case
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์ง€๋‚œ 5๋…„ ๊ฐ„์˜ ์‚ฌ๊ฑด๋“ค์„ ํ•˜๋‚˜ ํ•˜๋‚˜
01:17
for the past five years.
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์‚ดํŽด๋ณด๊ณ  ์žˆ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:19
And as you can imagine,
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์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„๋“ค์ด ์ƒ์ƒํ•˜์‹ค ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋“ฏ์ด,
01:20
when we finally got the results, they weren't good.
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๊ฒฐ๋ก ์„ ์–ป์—ˆ์ง€๋งŒ ๋ณ„๋กœ ํƒํƒ์ง€ ์•Š์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:23
It turned out that we were doing
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๋“œ๋Ÿฌ๋‚œ ๋ฐ”๋กœ๋Š”, ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š”
01:25
a lot of low-level drug cases
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๋‹น์‹œ ์‚ฌ๋ฌด์‹ค์ด ์œ„์น˜ํ•ด ์žˆ๋˜ ํŠธ๋ ŒํŠผ์—์„œ ์ผ์–ด๋‚˜๋Š”
01:27
on the streets just around the corner
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๊ธธ๊ฑฐ๋ฆฌ ๋งˆ์•ฝ ๊ฑฐ๋ž˜๋“ค๊ณผ ๊ฐ™์€
01:28
from our office in Trenton.
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๊ฒฝ๋ฒ”์ฃ„์—๋งŒ ์ง‘์ค‘ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:30
The second thing that happened
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๋‘๋ฒˆ์งธ ์ผ์–ด๋‚œ ์‚ฌ์‹ค์€ ์ œ๊ฐ€
01:32
is that I spent the day in the Camden, New Jersey police department.
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์บ ๋“ ์˜ ๋‰ด์ €์ง€ ๊ฒฝ์ฐฐ ๋ณธ๋ถ€์—์„œ ํ•˜๋ฃจ๋ฅผ ๋ณด๋ƒˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:35
Now, at that time, Camden, New Jersey,
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๋‹น์‹œ์—๋Š” ๋‰ด์ €์ง€ ์ฃผ์˜ ์บ ๋“ ์‹œ๊ฐ€
01:37
was the most dangerous city in America.
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ์—์„œ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์œ„ํ—˜ํ•œ ๋„์‹œ์˜€์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:40
I ran the Camden Police Department because of that.
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๊ทธ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์— ์ €๋Š” ์บ ๋“  ๊ฒฝ์ฐฐ์„œ๋ฅผ ์šด์˜ ํ–ˆ์—ˆ์ฃ .
01:44
I spent the day in the police department,
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์ €๋Š” ๊ทธ๋‚  ๊ฒฝ์ฐฐ ๋ณธ๋ถ€์—์„œ ํ•˜๋ฃจ๋ฅผ ๋ณด๋ƒˆ๋Š”๋ฐ
01:46
and I was taken into a room with senior police officials,
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์บ ๋“ ์˜ ๋ฒ”์ฃ„๋ฅผ ๊ฒฝ๊ฐ์‹œํ‚ค๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด
01:49
all of whom were working hard
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๋‹ค๋ถ„ํžˆ ๋…ธ๋ ฅ์„ ๋“ค์ด๊ณ  ๊ณ„์‹œ๋Š”
01:50
and trying very hard to reduce crime in Camden.
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๊ณ ์œ„ ๊ฒฝ์ฐฐ ๊ฐ„๋ถ€๋“ค์ด ์žˆ๋˜ ๋ฐฉ์œผ๋กœ ์•ˆ๋‚ด๋ฐ›์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:54
And what I saw in that room,
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์ €ํฌ๊ฐ€ ๋ฒ”์ฃ„๋ฅผ ๊ฐ์†Œ์‹œํ‚ฌ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด์„œ
01:55
as we talked about how to reduce crime,
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๋Œ€ํ™”๋ฅผ ๋‚˜๋ˆ„๊ณ  ์žˆ๋˜ ๋„์ค‘์—,
01:58
were a series of officers with a lot of little yellow sticky notes.
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์ €๋Š” ๋ชธ์— ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ ๊ฐœ์˜ ํฌ์ŠคํŠธ์ž‡์„ ์ง€๋‹ˆ๊ณ  ์žˆ๋˜ ๊ฒฝ๊ด€๋“ค์„ ๋ชฉ๊ฒฉํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:01
And they would take a yellow sticky and they would write something on it
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๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ๊ทธ ๋…ธ๋ž€์ƒ‰ ํฌ์ŠคํŠธ์ž‡์— ๋ฌด์–ธ๊ฐ€๋ฅผ ์จ์„œ
02:04
and they would put it up on a board.
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๊ฒŒ์‹œํŒ์— ๋ถ™์ด๋”๊ตฐ์š”.
02:06
And one of them said, "We had a robbery two weeks ago.
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๊ทธ ์ค‘ ํ•˜๋‚˜์— " 2์ฃผ ์ „ ๊ฐ•๋„ ์‚ฌ๊ฑด ๋ฐœ์ƒ.
02:08
We have no suspects."
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์šฉ์˜์ž ์—†์Œ." ์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ์”Œ์—ฌ์žˆ์—ˆ๊ณ 
02:10
And another said, "We had a shooting in this neighborhood last week. We have no suspects."
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๋˜ ํ•˜๋‚˜์—๋Š” "์ง€๋‚œ ์ฃผ ๊ทผ๋ฐฉ์—์„œ ์ด๊ธฐ์‚ฌ๊ฑด ๋ฐœ์ƒ. ์šฉ์˜์ž ์—†์Œ." ์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ์ ํ˜€์žˆ๋”๊ตฐ์š”.
02:15
We weren't using data-driven policing.
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์ €ํฌ๋Š” ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ๋ฐ”ํƒ•์œผ๋กœ ์ˆ˜์‚ฌ๋ฅผ ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์ง€ ์•Š์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:18
We were essentially trying to fight crime
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๋ฒ”์ฃ„์™€์˜ ์ „์Ÿ์„ ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•œ ๊ทผ๋ณธ์ ์ธ ๋…ธ๋ ฅ์„
02:20
with yellow Post-it notes.
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๋…ธ๋ž€์ƒ‰ ํฌ์ŠคํŠธ์ž‡์œผ๋กœ ํ•˜๋ ค๋˜ ๊ฒƒ์ด์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:22
Now, both of these things made me realize
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์ด ๋‘ ๊ฐ€์ง€ ์‚ฌ๊ฑด์ด ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๊ทผ๋ณธ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ž˜๋ชปํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š”
02:24
fundamentally that we were failing.
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์‚ฌ์‹ค์„ ๊นจ๋‹ซ๊ฒŒ ํ•ด์ฃผ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:28
We didn't even know who was in our criminal justice system,
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์ €ํฌ๋Š” ๋ˆ„๊ฐ€ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ์‚ฌ๋ฒ• ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์— ํฌํ•จ๋˜์–ด ์žˆ๋Š”์ง€์กฐ์ฐจ
02:31
we didn't have any data about the things that mattered,
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์•Œ์ง€ ๋ชปํ–ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ์‚ฌ๊ฑด์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ •๋ณด์กฐ์ฐจ ๊ฐ–๊ณ  ์žˆ์ง€ ์•Š์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:34
and we didn't share data or use analytics
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๋ฟ๋งŒ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ž๋ฃŒ๋‚˜ ์„œ๋กœ์˜ ๋ถ„์„ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ• ๋˜๋Š” ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€
02:36
or tools to help us make better decisions
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๋ฒ”์ฃ„๋ฅผ ์ค„์ด๋Š”๋ฐ ๋” ๋‚˜์€ ๊ฒฐ์ •์„ ๋‚ด๋ฆฌ๋Š”๋ฐ ๋„์›€์ด ๋˜๋Š”
02:39
and to reduce crime.
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๋„๊ตฌ๋“ค์„ ์„œ๋กœ ๊ณต์œ ์กฐ์ฐจ ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์ง€ ์•Š๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ๊นจ๋‹ฌ์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:41
And for the first time, I started to think
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ฒ˜์Œ์œผ๋กœ, ์ €๋Š” ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์–ด๋–ค ์‹์œผ๋กœ ๊ฒฐ๋ก ์„ ๋‚ด๋ฆฌ๋Š”์ง€์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด
02:43
about how we made decisions.
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์ƒ๊ฐํ•ด ๋ณด์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:45
When I was an assistant D.A.,
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์ œ๊ฐ€ ์ง€๋ฐฉ ๊ฒ€์‚ฌ๋ณด๋กœ ์žˆ์„ ๋•Œ,
02:46
and when I was a federal prosecutor,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์—ฐ๋ฐฉ ๊ฒ€์‚ฌ๋กœ ์žˆ์„ ๋•Œ,
02:48
I looked at the cases in front of me,
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์ €๋Š” ๋ˆˆ์•ž์— ๋†“์ธ ์‚ฌ๊ฑด๋“ค์„ ๋ณด๊ณ 
02:50
and I generally made decisions based on my instinct
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์ €์˜ ๋ณธ๋Šฅ๊ณผ ๊ฒฝํ—˜์„ ๋ฐ”ํƒ•์œผ๋กœ
02:52
and my experience.
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๊ฒฐ์ •์„ ๋‚ด๋ ธ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:54
When I became attorney general,
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์ œ๊ฐ€ ๋ฒ•๋ฌด์žฅ๊ด€์œผ๋กœ ์ž„๋ช…๋ฐ›์•˜์„ ๋•Œ,
02:56
I could look at the system as a whole,
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์ €๋Š” ์ „๋ฐ˜์ ์ธ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์„ ์‚ดํŽด ๋ณผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:57
and what surprised me is that I found
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๊ทธ ๋•Œ ์ €๋ฅผ ๋†€๋ผ๊ฒŒ ํ•œ ์‚ฌ์‹ค์€
02:59
that that was exactly how we were doing it
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์ „๋ฐ˜์ ์ธ ์‚ฌ๋ฒ• ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์ด ์•ž์„œ ๋ง์”€๋“œ๋ฆฐ ๊ฒƒ๊ณผ ๊ฐ™์€ ๋ฒ™๋ฒ•์„
03:01
across the entire system --
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์ด์šฉํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:03
in police departments, in prosecutors's offices,
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๊ฒฝ์ฐฐ ๋ถ€์„œ์™€ ๊ฒ€์ฐฐ,
03:06
in courts and in jails.
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๋ฒ•์ •๊ณผ ๊ฐ์˜ฅ์—์„œ๊นŒ์ง€ ๋ง์ด์ฃ .
03:09
And what I learned very quickly
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์ €๋Š” ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์ผ์„ ์ œ๋Œ€๋กœ ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์ง€ ๋ชปํ•˜๋‹ค๋Š” ์‚ฌ์‹ค์„
03:11
is that we weren't doing a good job.
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๋น ๋ฅด๊ฒŒ ๊นจ๋‹ซ๊ฒŒ ๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:14
So I wanted to do things differently.
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๊ทธ๋•Œ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ์ €๋Š” ์‚ฌ๊ฑด์„ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๋ฐฉ์‹์œผ๋กœ ์šด์˜ํ•˜๊ณ  ์‹ถ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:16
I wanted to introduce data and analytics
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์ €๋Š” ์ž๋ฃŒ์™€ ๋ถ„์„ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•,
03:19
and rigorous statistical analysis
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์—„๊ฒฉํ•œ ํ†ต๊ณ„ ๋ถ„์„์„
03:21
into our work.
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๋„์ž…ํ•˜๊ณ  ์‹ถ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:22
In short, I wanted to moneyball criminal justice.
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์งง๊ฒŒ ๋งํ•ด, ์ €๋Š” ์‚ฌ๋ฒ• ์ œ๋„๋ฅผ ๋จธ๋‹ˆ๋ณผ๋กœ ๋ฐ”๊พธ๊ณ  ์‹ถ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:25
Now, moneyball, as many of you know,
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์ž, ๋จธ๋‹ˆ๋ณผ์€, ๋งŽ์€ ๋ถ„๋“ค์ด ์ด๋ฏธ ์•„์‹œ๊ฒ ์ง€๋งŒ,
03:27
is what the Oakland A's did,
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์˜คํด๋žœ๋“œ A.๊ฐ€ ๊ณ ์•ˆํ•œ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์ด์ฃ .
03:29
where they used smart data and statistics
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์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ์Šค๋งˆํŠธ ์ž๋ฃŒ์™€ ํ†ต๊ณ„๋ฅผ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ
03:31
to figure out how to pick players
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๊ฒŒ์ž„์—์„œ ์ด๊ธฐ๊ฒŒ ํ•ด์ค„
03:32
that would help them win games,
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์„ ์ˆ˜๋“ค์„ ๋ฝ‘๋Š” ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:34
and they went from a system that was based on baseball scouts
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๋จธ๋‹ˆ๋ณผ ๋•๋ถ„์—, ์•ผ๊ตฌ ์Šค์นด์›ƒ๋“ค์ด ์„ ์ˆ˜๋“ค์˜
03:37
who used to go out and watch players
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๊ฒฝ๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ๋ณด๊ณ 
03:39
and use their instinct and experience,
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๋‹จ์ˆœํžˆ ๋ณธ๋Šฅ๊ณผ ๊ฒฝํ—˜์— ์˜์กดํ•˜์—ฌ
03:40
the scouts' instincts and experience,
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์ œ๋ง์€, ์Šค์นด์›ƒ์˜ ๋ณธ๋Šฅ๊ณผ ๊ฒฝํ—˜์ด๋ผ๋Š” ๊ฑฐ์ฃ .
03:42
to pick players, from one to use
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์„ ์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ๋ฝ‘์•„๋‚ด๋Š” ๋Œ€์‹ ์—,
03:44
smart data and rigorous statistical analysis
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์ด์ œ๋Š” ์Šค๋งˆํŠธ ์ž๋ฃŒ ๋ฐ ์—„๊ฒฉํ•œ ํ†ต๊ณ„ ๋ถ„์„์„
03:47
to figure out how to pick players that would help them win games.
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์ด์šฉํ•ด ๋” ๋งŽ์€ ์ˆ˜์˜ ๊ฒฝ๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ์ด๊ธธ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋„๋ก ํ•ด ์ค„ ์„ ์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ๋ฝ‘์„ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๊ฒŒ ๋˜์—ˆ์ฃ .
03:50
It worked for the Oakland A's,
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์˜คํด๋žœ๋“œ A. ์˜ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์€ ์Šค์นด์›ƒ๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ ์œ ์šฉํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์“ฐ์˜€๊ณ ,
03:52
and it worked in the state of New Jersey.
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๋‰ด์ €์ง€ ์ฃผ์—์„œ๋„ ์š”๊ธดํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์“ฐ์˜€์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:54
We took Camden off the top of the list
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์บ ๋“ ์„ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์—์„œ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์œ„ํ—˜ํ•œ ๋„์‹œ ๋ฆฌ์ŠคํŠธ์˜ ๋งจ ๊ผญ๋Œ€๊ธฐ์—์„œ
03:56
as the most dangerous city in America.
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๋‚ด๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๋ฐ ์„ฑ๊ณตํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:58
We reduced murders there by 41 percent,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์บ ๋“ ์—์„œ ์ผ์–ด๋‚˜๋˜ ์‚ด์ธ์‚ฌ๊ฑด์„ 41 %๋กœ ๊ฐ์†Œ์‹œํ‚ด์œผ๋กœ์จ
04:01
which actually means 37 lives were saved.
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37๋ช…์˜ ๋ชฉ์ˆจ์„ ๊ตฌํ–ˆ๊ณ ,
04:04
And we reduced all crime in the city by 26 percent.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ ๋„์‹œ์— ์กด์žฌํ•˜๋˜ ๋ชจ๋“  ๋ฒ”์ฃ„๋ฅผ 26%๋กœ ๊ฐ์†Œ์‹œ์ผฐ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:08
We also changed the way we did criminal prosecutions.
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๋ฟ๋งŒ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ, ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ํ˜•์‚ฌ ๊ธฐ์†Œ์˜ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ• ๋˜ํ•œ ๋ณ€๊ฒฝ ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:11
So we went from doing low-level drug crimes
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๊ฑด๋ฌผ ๋ฐ”๋กœ ๋ฐ–์—์„œ ์ผ์–ด๋‚˜๋˜ ๋งˆ์•ฝ ๊ฒฝ๋ฒ”์ฃ„์—
04:13
that were outside our building
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์ง‘์ค‘ํ•˜๊ธฐ ๋ณด๋‹ค๋Š”,
04:15
to doing cases of statewide importance,
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์ „๊ตญ์ ์ธ ์˜ํ•ญ์„ ๋ผ์น˜๋Š” ์ค‘๋ฒ”์ฃ„์— ์ง‘์ค‘ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:17
on things like reducing violence with the most violent offenders,
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ํญ๋ ฅ์ ์ธ ๋ฒ”์ฃ„์ž๋“ค์˜ ๋งŒํ–‰๊ณผ ์ž”์ธํ•œ ํญ๋ ฅ ํ–‰์œ„๊ฐ™์€ ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์„ ์ค„์ด๋Š” ๊ฒƒ๊ณผ.
04:20
prosecuting street gangs,
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๊ฑฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ํญ๋ ฅ๋ฐฐ๋“ค,
04:22
gun and drug trafficking, and political corruption.
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์ด๊ธฐ์™€ ๋งˆ์•ฝ ๋ฐ€๋งค, ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ •์น˜์  ๋ถ€ํŒจ ๋“ฑ์„ ์ค„์ด๋Š” ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์ด์ฃ .
04:26
And all of this matters greatly,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ด ๋ฌธ์ œ๋“ค์€ ๋งค์šฐ ์ค‘์š”ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:28
because public safety to me
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์™œ๋ƒํ•˜๋ฉด ์ €์—๊ฒ ๊ณต๊ณต ์•ˆ์ „์ด
04:30
is the most important function of government.
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์ •๋ถ€์˜ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ๊ธฐ๋Šฅ์ด๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:33
If we're not safe, we can't be educated,
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๋งŒ์•ฝ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋“ค์ด ์•ˆ์ „ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š๋‹ค๋ฉด, ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๊ต์œก์„ ๋ฐ›์ง€ ๋ชปํ•  ๊ฒƒ์ด๊ณ ,
04:35
we can't be healthy,
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๊ฑด๊ฐ•ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์กฐ์ฐจ ์—†์„ ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ฉฐ,
04:36
we can't do any of the other things we want to do in our lives.
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์‚ด๋ฉด์„œ ํ•˜๊ณ  ์‹ถ์€ ์ผ๋“ค๋„ ํ•˜์ง€ ๋ชปํ•  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:39
And we live in a country today
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์ €ํฌ๋Š” ์‹ฌ๊ฐํ•œ ํ˜•์‚ฌ ์‚ฌ๋ฒ• ๋ฌธ์ œ์— ์ง๋ฉดํ•ด ์žˆ๋Š”,
04:41
where we face serious criminal justice problems.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ํ•ด๋งˆ๋‹ค 12๋งŒ ๋ช… ์ •๋„์˜ ๋ฒ”์ฃ„์ž๋“ค์„ ์ฒดํฌํ•˜๋Š”
04:44
We have 12 million arrests every single year.
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๋‚˜๋ผ์— ์‚ด๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:48
The vast majority of those arrests
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๊ฒ€๊ฑฐํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฒ”์ฃ„์ž๋“ค์˜
04:50
are for low-level crimes, like misdemeanors,
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70% ์—์„œ 80% ์ •๋„๊ฐ€
04:53
70 to 80 percent.
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๋น„ํ–‰(้ž่กŒ)๊ณผ ๊ฐ™์€ ๊ฒฝ๋ฒ”์ฃ„๋กœ ์ธํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ด์ฃ .
04:55
Less than five percent of all arrests
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๋ชจ๋“  ์ฒดํฌ๊ธฐ๋ก์˜ ๊ฒจ์šฐ 5% ๋ฏธ๋งŒ๋งŒ์ด
04:57
are for violent crime.
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ํญ๋ ฅ ๋ฒ”์ฃ„๋กœ ์ธํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:58
Yet we spend 75 billion,
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๊ทธ๋Ÿผ์—๋„ ๋ถˆ๊ตฌํ•˜๊ณ , ์ €ํฌ๋Š” 750์–ต ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ฅผ
05:01
that's b for billion,
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๊ทธ๋ ‡์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. 75๋งŒ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ๊ฐ€ ์•„๋‹Œ, 750์–ต ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:02
dollars a year on state and local corrections costs.
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์ฃผ์™€ ์—ฐ๋ฐฉ์˜ ์•ˆ์ „์„ ์œ„ํ•ด ๋งค๋…„ ์Ÿ์•„๋ถ“๋Š” ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ์˜ ๋น„์šฉ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:06
Right now, today, we have 2.3 million people
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ํ˜„์žฌ, 230๋งŒ ๋ช…์˜ ๋ฒ”์ฃ„์ž๋“ค์ด
05:09
in our jails and prisons.
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๊ฐ์˜ฅ๊ณผ ํ˜•๋ฌด์†Œ์— ์ˆ˜๊ฐ๋ผ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:11
And we face unbelievable public safety challenges
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ํ˜„์žฌ ๊ฐ์˜ฅ์— ๊ฐ‡ํ˜€์žˆ๋Š” ๋ฒ”์ฃ„์ž๋“ค์˜ 3๋ถ„์˜ 2๊ฐ€
05:14
because we have a situation
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์žฌํŒ์„ ๊ธฐ๋‹ค๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ์ƒํ™ฉ์ด๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์—,
05:16
in which two thirds of the people in our jails
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์ €ํฌ๋Š” ์—„์ฒญ๋‚œ ๊ณต๊ณต ์•ˆ์ „ ๋ฌธ์ œ์—
05:18
are there waiting for trial.
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์ง๋ฉดํ•ด ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:20
They haven't yet been convicted of a crime.
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๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ์•„์ง ์œ ์ฃ„ ํŒ๊ฒฐ์„ ๋ฐ›์ง€ ์•Š์€ ์ƒํƒœ์ด์ง€์š”.
05:22
They're just waiting for their day in court.
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๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ๋‹จ์ง€ ๋ฒ•์ •์— ์„ค ๋‚ ์„ ๊ธฐ๋‹ค๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์žˆ์„ ๋ฟ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:24
And 67 percent of people come back.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๊ทธ ์ค‘ 67%์˜ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์€ ๋‹ค์‹œ ๊ฐ์˜ฅ์œผ๋กœ ๋Œ์•„์˜ต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:28
Our recidivism rate is amongst the highest in the world.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ƒ์Šต ๋ฒ”์ฃ„์œจ์ด ์„ธ๊ณ„์—์„œ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๋†’์€ ๋‚˜๋ผ ์ค‘์— ํ•˜๋‚˜์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:31
Almost seven in 10 people who are released
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๊ฐ์˜ฅ์—์„œ ํ’€๋ ค๋‚œ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค ์ค‘ 10๋ช… ์ค‘ 7๋ช… ๋Œ€๋ถ€๋ถ„์ด
05:33
from prison will be rearrested
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๋ฒ”์ฃ„์™€ ์ˆ˜๊ฐ์˜ ๊ฑฐ๋“ญ๋˜๋Š” ์ฃผ๊ธฐ ์†์—์„œ
05:35
in a constant cycle of crime and incarceration.
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๋‹ค์‹œ ์ฒดํฌ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:39
So when I started my job at the Arnold Foundation,
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์ œ๊ฐ€ ์•„๋†€๋“œ ์žฌ๋‹จ์—์„œ ์ผ์„ ์‹œ์ž‘ ํ–ˆ์„ ๋•Œ
05:41
I came back to looking at a lot of these questions,
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์ €๋Š” ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ์ •๋ณด์™€ ๋ถ„์„ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋ฅผ ์ด์šฉํ•ด
05:44
and I came back to thinking about how
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๋‰ด์ €์ง€์—์„œ์˜ ํ˜•์‚ฌ ์‚ฌ๋ฒ•์˜ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์„
05:46
we had used data and analytics to transform
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๋ฐ”๊พผ ๊ฒƒ๊ณผ ์ด๋Ÿฌํ•œ ๋งŽ์€ ์งˆ๋ฌธ๋“ค์—
05:48
the way we did criminal justice in New Jersey.
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๋‹ค์‹œ ํ•œ๋ฒˆ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ด ๋ณด๊ฒŒ ๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:51
And when I look at the criminal justice system
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์ œ๊ฐ€ ์˜ค๋Š˜๋‚  ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜
05:53
in the United States today,
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์‚ฌ๋ฒ• ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์„ ์‚ดํŽด๋ดค์„ ๋•Œ,
05:54
I feel the exact same way that I did
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์ „ ์ œ๊ฐ€ ๋‰ด์ €์ง€ ์ฃผ์—์„œ ์ฒ˜์Œ ์ผ์„ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ–ˆ์„ ๋•Œ์™€
05:56
about the state of New Jersey when I started there,
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๊ฐ™์€ ๋Š๋‚Œ์ด ๋“ค์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:59
which is that we absolutely have to do better,
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๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์€ ๋ฐ”๋กœ, ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๋” ์ž˜ํ•ด์•ผ๋งŒ ๋œ๋‹ค๋Š” ๋Š๋‚Œ,
06:02
and I know that we can do better.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๋” ์ž˜ํ•  ๊ฑฐ๋ผ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ์•Œ๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๋Š๋‚Œ์ด์ฃ .
06:04
So I decided to focus
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์ €๋Š” ๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ
06:05
on using data and analytics
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๊ณต๊ณต ์•ˆ์ „์— ์žˆ์–ด ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ๊ฒฐ์ •์„ ํ•˜๋„๋ก
06:08
to help make the most critical decision
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๋•๋Š” ๋ถ„์„๊ณผ ์ž๋ฃŒ ํ™œ์šฉ์—
06:10
in public safety,
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์ดˆ์ ์„ ๋งž์ถ”๊ธฐ๋กœ ๊ฒฐ์‹ฌํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:12
and that decision is the determination
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๊ทธ ๊ฒฐ์ •์€ ๋ฐ”๋กœ
06:14
of whether, when someone has been arrested,
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์–ด๋–ค ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์ด ์ฒดํฌ๋˜์—ˆ์„ ๋•Œ,
06:16
whether they pose a risk to public safety
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๊ทธ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์ด ๊ณผ์—ฐ ๊ณต๊ณต ์•ˆ์ „์— ๋ถ€์ •์ ์ธ ์˜ํ•ญ์„ ๋ผ์น  ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ƒ์˜ ์—ฌ๋ถ€
06:18
and should be detained,
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ํ˜น์€ ๊ฐ๊ธˆ๋˜์–ด์•ผ ํ•˜๋Š”์ง€์˜ ์—ฌ๋ถ€์™€
06:20
or whether they don't pose a risk to public safety
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๋˜๋Š” ๊ณต๊ณต ์•ˆ์ „์— ์•„๋ฌด๋Ÿฐ ์œ„ํ˜‘์„ ๋ผ์น˜์ง€ ์•Š์„ ๊ฒƒ์ด๊ธฐ์—
06:22
and should be released.
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์„๋ฐฉ๋˜์–ด์•ผ ํ• ์ง€์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๊ฒฐ์ •์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:24
Everything that happens in criminal cases
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ํ˜•์‚ฌ ์‚ฌ๊ฑด์—์„œ ์ผ์–ด๋‚˜๋Š” ๋ชจ๋“  ์ผ๋“ค์€
06:26
comes out of this one decision.
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๊ฒฐ๊ณผ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ด ํ•˜๋‚˜์˜ ๊ฒฐ์ •์—์„œ ์ด๋ฃจ์–ด์ง‘๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:27
It impacts everything.
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์ด ๊ฒฐ์ • ํ•˜๋‚˜๊ฐ€ ๋ชจ๋“  ๊ฒƒ์— ์˜ํ•ญ์„ ์ฃผ์ฃ ..
06:29
It impacts sentencing.
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์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ์žฌํŒ์˜ ํŒ๊ฒฐ์— ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ๋ฏธ์นฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:30
It impacts whether someone gets drug treatment.
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๋ˆ„๊ตฐ๊ฐ€๊ฐ€ ์•ฝ๋ฌผ ์น˜๋ฃŒ๋ฅผ ๋ฐ›์•„์•ผ ํ• ์ง€์˜ ์—ฌ๋ถ€์— ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ๋ฏธ์นฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:32
It impacts crime and violence.
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๋ฒ”์ฃ„์™€ ํญ๋ ฅ์— ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ๋ฏธ์นฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:34
And when I talk to judges around the United States,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ , ์ œ๊ฐ€ ํ•ญ์ƒํ•˜๋Š” ์ผ์ด์ง€๋งŒ,
06:36
which I do all the time now,
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๊ณณ๊ณณ์˜ ํŒ์‚ฌ๋“ค๊ณผ ์–˜๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ๋‚˜๋ˆ„์–ด ๋ณด๋ฉด,
06:38
they all say the same thing,
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๊ทธ๋“ค ๋ชจ๋‘ ํ•ญ์ƒ ๊ฐ™์€ ์–˜๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:40
which is that we put dangerous people in jail,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์œ„ํ—˜ํ•œ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์€ ๊ฐ์˜ฅ์— ๊ฐ€๋‘๊ณ ,
06:43
and we let non-dangerous, nonviolent people out.
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์œ„ํ—˜ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์€, ๋น„ํญ๋ ฅ์ ์ธ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์„ ์„๋ฐฉ์‹œํ‚จ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:47
They mean it and they believe it.
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๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ์ •๋ง ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋ฏฟ๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:49
But when you start to look at the data,
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ, ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„๋“ค์ด ์ž๋ฃŒ๋ฅผ ๋ณด์‹œ๊ฒŒ ๋œ๋‹ค๋ฉด,
06:51
which, by the way, the judges don't have,
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์ฐธ๊ณ ๋กœ, ํŒ์‚ฌ๋“ค์€ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋ฅผ ๊ฐ–๊ณ  ์žˆ์ง€ ์•Š์ฃ .
06:53
when we start to look at the data,
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์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„๋“ค์ด ์ž๋ฃŒ๋ฅผ ๋ณด๊ธฐ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ•œ๋‹ค๋ฉด,
06:55
what we find time and time again,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๋ช‡ ๋ฒˆ์ด๊ณ , ๋ช‡ ๋ฒˆ์ด๊ณ ,
06:57
is that this isn't the case.
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์ด๊ฒƒ์ด ์‚ฌ๊ฑด์˜ ์‚ฌ๋ก€๊ฐ€ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋ฐœ๊ฒฌํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:59
We find low-risk offenders,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ํ˜„์žฌ ํ˜•์‚ฌ ์‚ฌ๋ฒ• ์ „์ฒด ์ธ๊ตฌ์˜ 50%๋ฅผ ์ฐจ์ง€ํ•˜๋Š”
07:01
which makes up 50 percent of our entire criminal justice population,
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๋น„๊ต์  ๊ฒฝ๋ฏธํ•œ ๋ฒ”์ฃ„์ž๋“ค์ด
07:05
we find that they're in jail.
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๊ฐ์˜ฅ์— ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ์‚ฌ์‹ค์„ ์•Œ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:07
Take Leslie Chew, who was a Texas man
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ํ…์‚ฌ์Šค ์‹œ๋ฏผ์ด์˜€๋˜ ๋ ˆ์Šฌ๋ฆฌ ์ธ„์˜ ์˜ˆ๋ฅผ ๋“ค์–ด๋ณด์ฃ .
07:09
who stole four blankets on a cold winter night.
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๊ทธ๋Š” ์–ด๋Š ์ถ”์šด ๊ฒจ์šธ ๋ฐค์— 4 ๊ฐœ์˜ ๋‹ด์š”๋ฅผ ํ›”์ณค์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:12
He was arrested, and he was kept in jail
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๊ทธ๋Š” ์ฒดํฌ ๋˜์—ˆ๊ณ , ๊ทธ๊ฐ€ ์ง€๋ถˆํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์—†๋Š” ์–‘์˜ ๊ธˆ์•ก์ธ
07:15
on 3,500 dollars bail,
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3์ฒœ5๋ฐฑ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ์˜ ๋ฒŒ๊ธˆ๊ณผ ํ•จ๊ป˜
07:17
an amount that he could not afford to pay.
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๊ฐ์˜ฅ์— ์ˆ˜๊ฐ๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:20
And he stayed in jail for eight months
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๊ทธ๋Š” ๋‚ฉ์„ธ์ž๋“ค์ด ๋‚ธ 9์ฒœ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์„ธ๊ธˆ์˜ ๋น„์šฉ์œผ๋กœ
07:22
until his case came up for trial,
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์žฌํŒ์„ ํ•  ๋•Œ๊นŒ์ง€ ๊ฐ์˜ฅ์— 8๊ฐœ์›” ๋™์•ˆ
07:24
at a cost to taxpayers of more than 9,000 dollars.
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๊ฐ‡ํ˜€์žˆ์–ด์•ผ ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:28
And at the other end of the spectrum,
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์ด๊ฒƒ์„ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์ธก๋ฉด์—์„œ ๋ณธ๋‹ค๋ฉด,
07:30
we're doing an equally terrible job.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ผ์„ ์ œ๋Œ€๋กœ ๋ชปํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ์…ˆ์ด์ง€์š”.
07:33
The people who we find
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์•Œ์•„๋‚ธ
07:34
are the highest-risk offenders,
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๊ฐ€์žฅ ์œ„ํ—˜ํ•œ ๋ฒ”์ฃ„์ž๋“ค,
07:36
the people who we think have the highest likelihood
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๋งŒ์•ฝ ์ถœ์†Œ๋œ๋‹ค๋ฉด ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ๋ฒ”์ฃ„๋ฅผ ๋‹ค์‹œ ์ €์ง€๋ฅผ
07:39
of committing a new crime if they're released,
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๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์ด ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๋†’๋‹ค๊ณ  ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์—ฌ๊ธฐ๋Š” ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด์ฃ .
07:41
we see nationally that 50 percent of those people
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ „๊ตญ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ด๋Ÿฌํ•œ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค ์ค‘ 50%๊ฐ€
07:44
are being released.
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์ถœ์†Œ๋œ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋ณด๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:46
The reason for this is the way we make decisions.
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์ด๋Ÿฌํ•œ ์ผ์ด ์ผ์–ด๋‚˜๋Š” ์ด์œ ๋Š” ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๊ฒฐ์ •์„ ๋‚ด๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๋ฐฉ์‹์— ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:49
Judges have the best intentions
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ํŒ์‚ฌ๋“ค์€ ์ด๋Ÿฌํ•œ ์œ„ํ˜‘์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๊ฒฐ์ •์„ ๋‚ด๋ฆด ๋•Œ,
07:50
when they make these decisions about risk,
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์ตœ์„ ์˜ ํŒ๊ฒฐ์„ ๋‚ด๋ฆฝ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:52
but they're making them subjectively.
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ์ด๋Ÿฐ ํŒ๊ฒฐ์„ ๋งค์šฐ ์ฃผ๊ด€์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋‚ด๋ฆฌ์ง€์š”.
07:55
They're like the baseball scouts 20 years ago
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๊ทธ๋“ค์€ 20๋…„ ์ „ ์•ผ๊ตฌ ์Šค์นด์›ƒ์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ
07:57
who were using their instinct and their experience
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๊ทธ๋“ค์˜ ๋ณธ๋Šฅ๊ณผ ๊ฒฝํ—˜์„ ์ด์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ,
07:59
to try to decide what risk someone poses.
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๋ˆ„๊ฐ€ ์œ„ํ˜‘์„ ๋ผ์น ์ง€ ๊ฒฐ์ •ํ•˜๋ ค๊ณ  ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด์ฃ .
08:02
They're being subjective,
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๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ๋งค์šฐ ์ฃผ๊ด€์ ์œผ๋กœ ๊ฒฐ์ •์„ ๋‚ด๋ฆฌ๋ ค ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:03
and we know what happens with subjective decision making,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ €ํฌ๋Š” ์ฃผ๊ด€์ ์ธ ์˜์‚ฌ ๊ฒฐ์ •์ด ์–ด๋–ค ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ์ดˆ๋ž˜ํ•˜๋Š”์ง€ ์•Œ๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:06
which is that we are often wrong.
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์ €ํฌ๊ฐ€ ์ข…์ข… ๊ทธ๋ฆ‡๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด์ง€์š”.
08:09
What we need in this space
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์ด ๊ตญ๋ฉด์—์„œ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ์—๊ฒŒ ํ•„์š”ํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์€
08:11
are strong data and analytics.
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์œ ๋ ฅํ•œ ์ž๋ฃŒ์™€ ๋ถ„์„ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:13
What I decided to look for
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์ œ๊ฐ€ ์ฐพ๊ธฐ๋กœ ๊ฒฐ์‹ฌํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์€
08:15
was a strong data and analytic risk assessment tool,
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์œ ๋ ฅํ•œ ์ž๋ฃŒ์™€ ์œ„ํ—˜ ๋ถ„์„ ํ‰๊ฐ€ ๋„๊ตฌ์™€ ๊ฐ™์€
08:18
something that would let judges actually understand
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ํŒ์‚ฌ๋“ค์ด ๊ณผํ•™์ ์ด๊ณ  ๊ฐ๊ด€์ ์ธ ๋ฐฉ์‹์œผ๋กœ
08:20
with a scientific and objective way
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๊ทธ๋“ค ์•ž์— ์„  ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์— ์˜ํ•ด
08:23
what the risk was that was posed
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๋ถ€๊ณผ๋œ ์œ„ํ˜‘์ด ๋ฌด์—‡์ธ์ง€
08:24
by someone in front of them.
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์‹ค์ œ๋กœ ์ดํ•ดํ• ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ์–ด๋–ค ๊ฒƒ์ด์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:26
I looked all over the country,
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์ €๋Š” ์ด ๋‚˜๋ผ ์ „์ฒด๋ฅผ ๋‹ค ์‚ดํŽด๋ณด์•˜์ฃ .
08:28
and I found that between five and 10 percent
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๊ฒฐ๊ณผ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ €๋Š” ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๊ด€ํ• ๊ถŒ ์ค‘
08:30
of all U.S. jurisdictions
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5๋‚ด์ง€ 10%๊ฐ€
08:31
actually use any type of risk assessment tool,
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์–ด๋–ค ์œ ํ˜•์˜ ์‹ค์ œ ์œ„ํ—˜ ํ‰๊ฐ€ ๋„๊ตฌ๋ฅผ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ์•Œ์•„๋ƒˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:34
and when I looked at these tools,
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์ œ๊ฐ€ ์ด ๋„๊ตฌ๋“ค์„ ๋ณด์•˜์„ ๋•Œ, ์ €๋Š” ์ด๊ฒƒ์ด ์™œ ๊ทธ๋Ÿฌํ•œ์ง€
08:35
I quickly realized why.
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๊ธˆ๋ฐฉ ๊นจ๋‹ฌ์„ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์—ˆ์ฃ .
08:37
They were unbelievably expensive to administer,
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์ด๊ฒƒ๋“ค์˜ ๊ด€๋ฆฌ๋น„๋Š” ์ƒ์ƒ์„ ์ดˆ์›”ํ•  ์ •๋„๋กœ ๋น„์ŒŒ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:40
they were time-consuming,
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๋ฟ๋งŒ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ ์ด๊ฒƒ๋“ค์€ ๋งŽ์€ ์‹œ๊ฐ„์„ ์š”๊ตฌํ–ˆ๊ณ ,
08:42
they were limited to the local jurisdiction
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์ด๊ฒƒ๋“ค์ด ํƒ„์ƒํ•œ ์ง€์—ญ์˜ ๊ด€ํ• ๊ถŒ์„ ๋„๋ฆฌ์–ด
08:44
in which they'd been created.
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์ œํ•œ์‹œํ‚ค๊ณ  ๋ง์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:45
So basically, they couldn't be scaled
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ ๊ธฐ๋ณธ์ ์œผ๋กœ, ์ด๊ฒƒ๋“ค์„ ๋” ์ด์ƒ ๋ณ€๊ฒฝ์‹œํ‚ฌ ์ˆ˜ ์—†์—ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ,
08:47
or transferred to other places.
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๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์žฅ์†Œ๋กœ ์˜ฎ๊ธธ ์ˆ˜๋„ ์—†์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:49
So I went out and built a phenomenal team
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์ €๋Š” ๋ณดํŽธ์ ์ธ ์œ„ํ—˜ ํ‰๊ฐ€ ๋„๊ตฌ๋ฅผ ์™„์„ฑํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด,
08:51
of data scientists and researchers
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์ž๋ฃŒ ๊ณผํ•™์ž๋“ค๊ณผ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์›๋“ค,
08:53
and statisticians
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ํ†ต๊ณ„ํ•™์ž๋“ค๋กœ ์ด๋ฃจ์–ด์ง„
08:55
to build a universal risk assessment tool,
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๋†€๋ผ์šด ํŒ€์„ ๊ฒฐ์„ฑํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:58
so that every single judge in the United States of America
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์ €๋Š” ์ด๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•ด, ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์ „์ฒด์— ์žˆ๋Š” ๋ชจ๋“  ํŒ์‚ฌ๋“ค์ด
09:00
can have an objective, scientific measure of risk.
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๊ฐ๊ด€์ ์ด๊ณ , ๊ณผํ•™์ ์ธ ์œ„ํ˜‘ ์ธก์ •๋„๊ตฌ๋ฅผ ์ด์šฉํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋„๋ก ํ•˜๊ณ  ์‹ถ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:05
In the tool that we've built,
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์ „์ฒด์—์„œ,
09:06
what we did was we collected 1.5 million cases
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๋„์‹œ์™€ ์นด์šดํ‹ฐ์—์„œ,
09:09
from all around the United States,
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์ „์ฒด์— ์กด์žฌํ•˜๋Š” ๋ชจ๋“  ์ฃผ ํ•˜๋‚˜ ํ•˜๋‚˜์—์„œ,
09:11
from cities, from counties,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๊ฐ ์—ฐ๋ฐฉ์ง€๊ตฌ์—์„œ
09:12
from every single state in the country,
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150๋งŒ ๊ฑด์˜ ์‚ฌ๋ก€๋“ค์„ ์ˆ˜์ง‘ํ•ด์„œ
09:14
the federal districts.
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์ด ๋„๊ตฌ๋ฅผ ๋งŒ๋“ค์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:16
And with those 1.5 million cases,
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ์—์„œ ์˜ค๋Š˜๋‚ ๊นŒ์ง€์˜ ๋ชจ๋“  ์‚ฌ์ „ ์‹ฌ๋ฆฌ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ
09:18
which is the largest data set on pretrial
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๊ฐ€์žฅ ๋งŽ์€ ์–‘์˜ ์ž๋ฃŒ์ธ
09:20
in the United States today,
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150๋งŒ ๊ฑด์˜ ํŒ๋ก€๋ฅผ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ ์„œ
09:22
we were able to basically find that there were
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์„ ์•Œ์•„๋‚ด๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด
09:23
900-plus risk factors that we could look at
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๋…ธ๋ ฅํ•˜๋Š” ์œ„ํ˜‘์š”์†Œ๋“ค์ด 9๋ฐฑ์—ฌ ๊ฐœ ์ด์ƒ ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„
09:27
to try to figure out what mattered most.
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๊ธฐ๋ณธ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ฐพ์•„๋‚ผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:30
And we found that there were nine specific things
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์ €ํฌ๋Š” ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์ „์ฒด์—์„œ ์ค‘์š”์‹œํ•˜๋Š” ํŠน์ • ์š”์†Œ๋Š”
09:32
that mattered all across the country
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9๊ฐ€์ง€๊ฐ€ ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋ฐํ˜€๋ƒˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:34
and that were the most highly predictive of risk.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ์œ„ํ˜‘์„ ์˜ˆ์ธกํ•ด ๋‚ด๋Š”๋ฐ ๋งค์šฐ ํšจ๊ณผ์ ์ด์—ˆ์ฃ .
09:37
And so we built a universal risk assessment tool.
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๊ฒฐ๊ณผ์ ์œผ๋กœ, ์ €ํฌ๋Š” ๋ณดํŽธ์ ์ธ ์œ„ํ˜‘ ์ธก์ • ๋„๊ตฌ๋ฅผ ๋ฐœ๋ช…ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:41
And it looks like this.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์€ ์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ์ƒ๊ฒผ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:42
As you'll see, we put some information in,
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์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„๋“ค์ด ๋ณด๋“ฏ์ด, ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๋ช‡ ๊ฐ€์ง€์˜ ์ •๋ณด๋งŒ์„ ์ž…๋ ฅํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค,
09:45
but most of it is incredibly simple,
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ๋Œ€๋ถ€๋ถ„์€ ๋†€๋ผ์šธ ์ •๋„๋กœ ๊ฐ„๋‹จํ•˜๊ณ ,
09:47
it's easy to use,
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์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜๊ธฐ ์‰ฝ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:48
it focuses on things like the defendant's prior convictions,
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์ด ๋„๊ตฌ๋Š” ํ”ผ๊ณ ์ธ์˜ ๊ณผ๊ฑฐ ํŒ๊ฒฐ,
09:51
whether they've been sentenced to incarceration,
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ํ”ผ๊ณ ์ธ์˜ ๊ณผ๊ฑฐ ์ˆ˜๊ฐ ํŒ๊ฒฐ์˜ ์—ฌ๋ถ€,
09:53
whether they've engaged in violence before,
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ํ”ผ๊ณ ์ธ์˜ ํญ๋ ฅ ์‚ฌ๊ฑด ๊ด€์—ฌ์˜ ์—ฌ๋ถ€,
09:55
whether they've even failed to come back to court.
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์‹ฌ์ง€์–ด ํ”ผ๊ณ ์ธ์ด ๋‹ค์‹œ ๋ฒ•์›์— ์ถœ๋‘ํ•œ ์ ์ด ์žˆ๋Š”์ง€์˜ ์—ฌ๋ถ€์™€ ๊ฐ™์€ ์ ์— ์ดˆ์ ์ด ๋งž์ถฐ์ ธ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:58
And with this tool, we can predict three things.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ด ๋„๊ตฌ๋ฅผ ์ด์šฉํ•˜๋ฉด, ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” 3 ๊ฐ€์ง€์˜ ์ ์„ ์˜ˆ์ธกํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:00
First, whether or not someone will commit
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์ฒซ์งธ, ๊ทธ๋“ค์ด ๋งŒ์•ฝ ์„๋ฐฉ๋œ๋‹ค๋ฉด,
10:02
a new crime if they're released.
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์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ๋ฒ”์ฃ„๋ฅผ ์ €์ง€๋ฅผ์ง€์˜ ์—ฌ๋ถ€.
10:04
Second, for the first time,
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๋‘˜์งธ, ์—ญ์‚ฌ์ƒ ์ฒ˜์Œ์œผ๋กœ,
10:05
and I think this is incredibly important,
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์ €๋Š” ์ด๊ฒƒ์ด ๊ต‰์žฅํžˆ ์ค‘์š”ํ•˜๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:07
we can predict whether someone will commit
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ํ”ผ๊ณ ์ธ์ด ๋งŒ์•ฝ ์„๋ฐฉ๋œ๋‹ค๋ฉด ํญ๋ ฅ ํ–‰์œ„๋ฅผ
10:09
an act of violence if they're released.
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์ €์ง€๋ฅผ ๊ฒƒ์ธ์ง€์˜ ์—ฌ๋ถ€๋ฅผ ๋ฐํ˜€๋‚ผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์„ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:11
And that's the single most important thing
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์ด ํ”ผ๊ณ ์ธ์—๊ฒŒ ์–˜๊ธฐํ•  ๋•Œ
10:13
that judges say when you talk to them.
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ํŒ์‚ฌ๋“ค์ด ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ์ ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:15
And third, we can predict whether someone
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์…‹์งธ, ์ €ํฌ๋Š” ๋งŒ์•ฝ ๊ทธ ํ”ผ๊ณ ์ธ์ด ๋‹ค์‹œ
10:16
will come back to court.
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๋ฒ•์›์— ์ถœ๋‘ํ• ์ง€์˜ ์—ฌ๋ถ€๋ฅผ ์˜ˆ์ธกํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:18
And every single judge in the United States of America can use it,
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๋ฟ๋งŒ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ, ์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ๋ณดํŽธ์ ์ธ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋“ค์˜ ์ง‘ํ•ฉ์„ ์ด์šฉํ•ด ๋งŒ๋“ค์–ด ์ง„ ๊ฒƒ์ด๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์—
10:22
because it's been created on a universal data set.
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ์— ์žˆ๋Š” ๋ชจ๋“  ํŒ์‚ฌ๋“ค์ด ํ™œ์šฉํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:25
What judges see if they run the risk assessment tool
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๊ทธ๋“ค์ด ์œ„ํ—˜ ํ‰๊ฐ€ ๋„๊ตฌ๋ฅผ ์‹คํ–‰ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ํŒ์‚ฌ๋“ค์ด ๋ณด๊ฒŒ ๋œ๋‹ค๋ฉด,
10:28
is this -- it's a dashboard.
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์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ์ƒ๊ธด ๋Œ€์‹œ๋ณด๋“œ๋ฅผ ๋ณด๊ฒŒ ๋ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:30
At the top, you see the New Criminal Activity Score,
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์ƒ๋‹จ์—, ํ”ผ๊ณ ์ธ์˜ ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ๋ฒ”์ฃ„ ํ–‰๋™ ์ ์ˆ˜๊ฐ€ ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋ณผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:33
six of course being the highest,
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๋ฌผ๋ก , 6์ ์ด ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๋†’์€ ์ ์ˆ˜์ง€์š”.
10:35
and then in the middle you see, "Elevated risk of violence."
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ค‘๊ฐ„์—๋Š” "์ฆ๊ฐ€๋œ ํญ๋ ฅ ์œ„ํ˜‘"์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ์“ฐ์—ฌ์ง„ ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋ณผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:37
What that says is that this person
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์ด๊ฒƒ์ด ๋งํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€ ์ด ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์€
10:39
is someone who has an elevated risk of violence
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์ฆ๊ฐ€๋œ ํญ๋ ฅ ์œ„ํ˜‘์„ ๋ณด์œ ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์œผ๋ฏ€๋กœ,
10:41
that the judge should look twice at.
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ํŒ์‚ฌ๋“ค์ด ๋‹ค์‹œ ํ•œ๋ฒˆ ๋ˆˆ์—ฌ๊ฒจ ๋ณด์•„์•ผ ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ์‹œ์‚ฌํ•˜์ฃ .
10:43
And then, towards the bottom,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ , ํ•˜๋‹จ๋ถ€๋ฅผ ํ–ฅํ•ด ๋ณด์‹œ๋ฉด,
10:44
you see the Failure to Appear Score,
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์žฌํŒ์— ์ถœ๋‘ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์€ ์ •๋„์˜ ์ ์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ๋ณผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:46
which again is the likelihood
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์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ๋ˆ„๊ตฐ๊ฐ€๊ฐ€
10:48
that someone will come back to court.
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๋ฒ•์›์— ์žฌ์ถœ๋‘ํ•  ๊ณต์‚ฐ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ด๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:51
Now I want to say something really important.
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์ž, ์ €๋Š” ์ด์ œ ๋งค์šฐ ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ์–˜๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ํ•˜๊ณ ์ž ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:53
It's not that I think we should be eliminating
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์ €๋Š” ์ด ๊ณผ์ •์„ ํ†ตํ•ด
10:56
the judge's instinct and experience
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ํŒ์‚ฌ๋“ค์˜ ๋ณธ๋Šฅ๊ณผ ๊ฒฝํ—˜์„ ์—†์• ๋ฒ„๋ ค์•ผ ํ•œ๋‹ค๊ณ 
10:58
from this process.
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์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:59
I don't.
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์ •๋ง์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:00
I actually believe the problem that we see
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์ €๋Š” ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๋ณด๋Š” ๋ฌธ์ œ์™€
11:02
and the reason that we have these incredible system errors,
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๋น„ํญ๋ ฅ์ ์ธ ๊ฒฝ๋ฒ”์ฃ„์ž๋ฅผ ๊ฐ€๋‘๊ณ 
11:05
where we're incarcerating low-level, nonviolent people
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์œ„ํ˜‘์ ์ธ ์ค‘๋ฒ”์ฃ„์ž๋ฅผ ํ’€์–ด์ฃผ๋Š”
11:08
and we're releasing high-risk, dangerous people,
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์ด๋Ÿฌํ•œ ์น˜๋ช…์ ์ธ ์ฒด๊ณ„์ƒ์˜ ๋ฌธ์ œ ์ด์œ ๊ฐ€
11:12
is that we don't have an objective measure of risk.
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์œ„ํ˜‘์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๊ฐ๊ด€์ ์ธ ์ธก์ • ๋„๊ตฌ๊ฐ€ ์—†๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ์‹ค๋กœ ๋ฏฟ๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:14
But what I believe should happen
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์ผ์–ด๋‚˜์•ผ ํ•œ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋ฏฟ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€
11:16
is that we should take that data-driven risk assessment
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์ž๋ฃŒ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์˜ ์œ„ํ˜‘ ์ธก์ •์ด
11:18
and combine that with the judge's instinct and experience
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ํŒ์‚ฌ์˜ ๋ณธ๋Šฅ, ๊ฒฝํ—˜๊ณผ ๊ฒฐํ•ฉ๋˜์–ด
11:21
to lead us to better decision making.
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๋” ๋‚˜์€ ์˜์‚ฌ ๊ฒฐ์ •์œผ๋กœ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ์ด๋Œ์–ด์•ผ ํ•œ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:24
The tool went statewide in Kentucky on July 1,
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์ด ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์€ 7 ์›” 1 ์ผ, ์ผ„ํ„ฐํ‚ค ์ฃผ ์ „์ฒด์—์„œ ๋‹ค ์‹œํ–‰ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋˜์—ˆ๊ณ ,
11:28
and we're about to go up in a number of other U.S. jurisdictions.
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๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๊ด€ํ• ๊ถŒ์—์„œ๋„ ์‚ฌ์šฉ๋  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋„๋ก ์ถ”์ง„ํ•  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:31
Our goal, quite simply, is that every single judge
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์ €ํฌ์˜ ๋ชฉํ‘œ๋Š” ์•„์ฃผ ๊ฐ„๋‹จํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์ •๋ฆฌํ•˜์ž๋ฉด, ์ฐจํ›„ 5๋…„ ์•ˆ์—,
11:34
in the United States will use a data-driven risk tool
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ์— ์žˆ๋Š” ๋ชจ๋“  ํŒ์‚ฌ๊ฐ€ ์ž๋ฃŒ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜ ์œ„ํ—˜ ๋„๊ตฌ๋ฅผ
11:36
within the next five years.
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์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜๋„๋ก ๋งŒ๋“œ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:38
We're now working on risk tools
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์ €ํฌ๋Š” ํ˜„์žฌ ๊ฒ€์‚ฌ์™€ ๊ฒฝ์ฐฐ์„ ์œ„ํ•œ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜ ์œ„ํ—˜ ๋„๊ตฌ ๋˜ํ•œ
11:39
for prosecutors and for police officers as well,
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๊ฐœ๋ฐœํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด ๋…ธ๋ ฅํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:43
to try to take a system that runs today
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์ €ํฌ๋Š” ์˜ค๋Š˜๋‚  ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์—์„œ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์„
11:45
in America the same way it did 50 years ago,
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50๋…„ ์ „์— ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์—์„œ ๋™์ผํ•œ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์œผ๋กœ ์‹œํ–‰ํ–ˆ๋˜
11:48
based on instinct and experience,
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๋ณธ๋Šฅ๊ณผ ๊ฒฝํ—˜์— ์˜์กดํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•๊ณผ
11:50
and make it into one that runs
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ํ†ตํ•ฉํ•˜์—ฌ
11:52
on data and analytics.
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์ž๋ฃŒ์™€ ๋ถ„์„์„ ๋ฐ”ํƒ•์œผ๋กœ ์šด์˜ํ•˜๋Š” ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ๋ฐฉ์‹์„ ์ทจํ•˜๊ณ ์ž ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:55
Now, the great news about all this,
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์ž, ์ด ๋ชจ๋“  ๊ฒƒ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ข‹์€ ์†Œ์‹์€,
11:56
and we have a ton of work left to do,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ์—๊ฒ ์•„์ง๋„ ์—„์ฒญ๋‚œ ์–‘์˜ ํ•  ์ผ์ด ๋‚จ์•„์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ,
11:58
and we have a lot of culture to change,
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์—ฌ์ „ํžˆ ์ˆ˜๋งŽ์€ ๋ฌธํ™”๋ฅผ ๋ฐ”๊ฟ”์•ผ ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ,
12:00
but the great news about all of it
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๊ทธ ๊ฐ€์šด๋ฐ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์ข‹์€ ๋‰ด์Šค๋Š”,
12:02
is that we know it works.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ด์ œ ์ด ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์ด ์ œ๋Œ€๋กœ ์ž‘๋™ํ•˜๋Š”์ง€ ์•Œ๊ณ ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:04
It's why Google is Google,
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๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์€ ๊ตฌ๊ธ€์ด ์™œ ๊ตฌ๊ธ€์ธ ์ด์œ ์™€ ๊ฐ™์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:06
and it's why all these baseball teams use moneyball
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๊ทธ ์ด์œ ๋Š” ๋ฐ”๋กœ ์™œ ์•ผ๊ตฌ ํŒ€๋“ค์ด ๋จธ๋‹ˆ๋ณผ์„ ์ด์šฉํ•ด
12:08
to win games.
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๊ฒฝ๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ์ด๊ธฐ๋ ค๊ณ  ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ๊ณผ ๊ฐ™์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:10
The great news for us as well
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ ๋ชจ๋‘์—๊ฒŒ ๋˜ํ•œ ์ข‹์€ ๋‰ด์Šค๋Š”
12:12
is that it's the way that we can transform
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์ด ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์ด ๋ฐ”๋กœ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ํ˜•์‚ฌ ์‚ฌ๋ฒ• ์ฒด๊ณ„๋ฅผ
12:14
the American criminal justice system.
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๋ฐ”๊ฟ€ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์ด๋ผ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:16
It's how we can make our streets safer,
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์ด๊ฒƒ์ด ๋ฐ”๋กœ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ๊ฑฐ๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ๋”์šฑ ์•ˆ์ „ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋งŒ๋“ค ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์ด๋ฉฐ,
12:18
we can reduce our prison costs,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ๊ต๋„์†Œ์— ๋“œ๋Š” ๋น„์šฉ์„ ์ค„์ผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์ด๋ฉฐ,
12:21
and we can make our system much fairer
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์ €ํฌ๊ฐ€ ๋”์šฑ ๊ณต์ •ํ•˜๊ณ  ๋”์šฑ ์ •๋‹นํ•œ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์„
12:23
and more just.
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๋งŒ๋“ค ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:24
Some people call it data science.
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์–ด๋–ค ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ์ž๋ฃŒ ๊ณผํ•™์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ๋ถ€๋ฅด์ง€๋งŒ,
12:26
I call it moneyballing criminal justice.
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์ €๋Š” ์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ๋จธ๋‹ˆ๋ณผ๋ง ํ˜•์‚ฌ ์‚ฌ๋ฒ•์ด๋ผ ๋ถ€๋ฅด๊ฒ ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:29
Thank you.
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๊ฐ์‚ฌํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:31
(Applause)
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(๋ฐ•์ˆ˜)
์ด ์›น์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ ์ •๋ณด

์ด ์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ๋Š” ์˜์–ด ํ•™์Šต์— ์œ ์šฉํ•œ YouTube ๋™์˜์ƒ์„ ์†Œ๊ฐœํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ „ ์„ธ๊ณ„ ์ตœ๊ณ ์˜ ์„ ์ƒ๋‹˜๋“ค์ด ๊ฐ€๋ฅด์น˜๋Š” ์˜์–ด ์ˆ˜์—…์„ ๋ณด๊ฒŒ ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ฐ ๋™์˜์ƒ ํŽ˜์ด์ง€์— ํ‘œ์‹œ๋˜๋Š” ์˜์–ด ์ž๋ง‰์„ ๋”๋ธ” ํด๋ฆญํ•˜๋ฉด ๊ทธ๊ณณ์—์„œ ๋™์˜์ƒ์ด ์žฌ์ƒ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋น„๋””์˜ค ์žฌ์ƒ์— ๋งž์ถฐ ์ž๋ง‰์ด ์Šคํฌ๋กค๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์˜๊ฒฌ์ด๋‚˜ ์š”์ฒญ์ด ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ์ด ๋ฌธ์˜ ์–‘์‹์„ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹ญ์‹œ์˜ค.

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