What ocean microbes reveal about the changing climate | Angelicque White

Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Krystian Aparta

Prevodilac: Aleksandar Bošnjak Lektor: Ivana Korom

I'm a biological oceanographer.

Ja sam biološki okeanograf.

I have the absolute privilege of studying microbial lives

Imam privilegiju da izučavam živote mikroba

in the Pacific Ocean.

u Tihom okeanu.

So we'll talk about microbes in a minute,

Pričaćemo o mikrobima začas,

but I first want to give you a sense of place,

ali prvo želim da vam dočaram mesto i opseg.

a sense of scale.

The Pacific Ocean is our largest, deepest ocean basin.

Tihi okean je naš najveći i najdublji okean.

It covers 60 million square miles.

Pokriva 179,7 miliona kvadratnih kilometara.

If you took all the continents and you put them together

Ako uzmete sve kontinente i spojite ih

in a little Pangaea 2.0,

u malu Pangeu 2.0

they'd fit snug inside the Pacific, with room to spare.

stajali bi jedan do drugog u Tihom okeanu tako da ima slobodnog prostora.

It's a massive ecosystem,

To je ogroman ekosistem,

from the blues of the open ocean to the green of the continental margins.

od plavih u otvorenom moru do zelenih na kontinentalnim marginama.

In this place,

Na ovom mestu,

I get to study the base of the food web:

mogu da izučavam osnovu mreže hrane,

plankton.

planktone.

Now, in my research,

U mom istraživanju,

and really in the field of microbial oceanography as a whole,

i zapravo u oblasti mikrobske okeanografije kao celine,

there's a theme that has emerged,

jedna tema se pojavila,

and that theme is "change."

a ta tema je „promena”.

These microbial ecosystems are changing in real and measurable ways,

Ovi mikrobski ekosistemi se menjaju na stvarne i merljive načine

and it is not that hard to see it.

i to nije toliko teško videti.

Oceans cover 70 percent of our planet,

Okeani pokrivaju 70 procenata planete,

so ocean change is planetary change,

tako da je promena okeana promena planete,

and it all starts with microbes.

a sve počinje sa mikrobima.

Now, I have two vignettes to share with you,

Imam dve ilustracije da podelim sa vama,

and these are meant to be love stories to microbes.

one bi trebalo da mikrobima budu ljubavne priče.

But I'll be honest that there's an aspect of it

Ali biću iskrena, jedan njihov aspekat

that's just a total bummer,

je potpuno razočaravajuć,

and, beware, focus on the love.

i, pripazite, koncentrišite se na ljubav.

Right? That's where I'm coming from.

Zar ne? Odatle ja krećem.

So the first thing to know

Prva stvar koja treba da se zna

is that the forests of the sea are microbial.

je da su morske šume mikrobske.

And what I mean by that is that, by and large,

A ono što mislim pod tim je da su, uglavnom,

plants in the open ocean are microscopic,

biljke u otvorenom moru mikroskopske

and they are much more abundant than we realize.

i ima ih više u izobilju nego što mislimo.

So I'm going to show you some mug shots of these organisms

Pokazaću vam neke slike ovih organizama

that I've collected over the years.

koje sam skupljala tokom godina.

These are the lowest rungs of the ocean food web.

Oni su na najnižem nivou okeanske mreže hrane.

These are tiny plants and animals

Oni su male biljke i životinje

that come in a variety of shapes and sizes and colors and metabolisms.

koje su različitih oblika, veličina, boja i imaju različite metabolizme.

There are hundreds of thousands in a single milliliter of seawater.

Stotine hiljada organizama ima u jednom mililitru morske vode.

You are definitely swimming with them when you're in the ocean.

Definitivno plivate sa njima kada ste u okeanu.

They produce oxygen, they consume CO2,

Proizvode kiseonik, konzumiraju ugljen-dioksid,

and they form the base of the food web

i stvaraju osnovu mreže hrane

on which every other form of ocean life is reliant.

od koje zavisi svaki organizam u vodi.

Now, I've spent about 500 days of my scientific life at sea,

Provela sam oko 500 dana na moru istražujući,

and a lot more in front of a computer or in the lab,

i mnogo više ispred računara ili u laboratoriji,

so I feel compelled to tell you some of their stories.

i osećam se primorano da vam kažem neke njihove priče.

Let's start in the Pacific Northwest.

Hajde da počnemo na pacifičkom severozapadu.

This place is green. It is beautiful.

Ovo mesto je zeleno. Divno je.

These are blooms of phytoplankton that you can see from space

To su cvetovi fitoplaktona koje možete videti iz svemira

along the West Coast of the United States.

duž zapadne obale Amerike.

It's an incredibly productive ecosystem.

To je neverovatno produktivan ekosistem.

This is where you go to salmon fish, halibut fish, whale watch.

To je mesto gde idete da lovite losose, iverke i gledate kitove.

It's a beautiful part of our country.

To je lep deo naše zemlje.

And here, for 10 years, among other things,

Ovde sam, za deset godina, između ostalog,

I studied the uplifting topic of harmful algal blooms.

izučavala predmet u razvoju koji se tiče cvetanja štetnih algi.

These are blooms of toxin-producing phytoplankton

Ovu su cvetovi fitoplanktona koji proizvode otrove

that can contaminate food webs and accumulate in shellfish and fish

i koji mogu da kontaminiraju mreže hrane i da se gomilaju u školjkama i ribama,

that are harvested for human consumption.

koje su onda sakupljene za ljudsku upotrebu.

We were trying to understand why they bloom, where they bloom,

Pokušavamo da shvatimo zašto cvetaju, gde cvetaju,

when they bloom,

kada cvetaju,

so we could manage these harvests

tako da možemo da kontrolišemo ove periode

and protect human health.

i zaštitimo zdravlje ljudi.

Now, the problem is the ocean's a moving target

Problem je što je okean pokretna meta,

and, much like some people in our lives, toxicity varies among the plankton.

i nalik nekim ljudima u našim životima, otrovnost varira među planktonima.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

Alright?

U redu?

So, to get around these challenges,

Da bismo zaobišli ove izazove,

we combined satellite remote sensing

kombinovali smo daljinsko istraživanje satelita

with drones and gliders,

sa dronovima i jedrilicama,

regular sampling of the surf zone

redovno uzimanje uzoraka iz zone gde se surfuje,

and a lot of time at sea

i mnogo vremena na vodi

in small boats off the Oregon coast.

u malim brodovima van obale Oregona.

And I don't know if many of you have had the opportunity to do that,

Ne znam da li je mnogo vas imalo priliku da to radi,

but it is not easy.

ali to nije lako.

[Even oceanographers get seasick]

[Čak i okeanografi dobiju morsku bolest]

Here's some poor students.

Ovo su neki mučeni studenti.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

I've hidden their faces to protect their identities.

Sakrila sam njihova lica da bih im zaštitila identitete.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

This is a challenging place.

Ovo je izazovno mesto.

So this is hard-won data I'm about to talk about, OK?

Ovo su teško dobijeni podaci o kojima ću sada da pričam, u redu?

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

So by combining all of our data with our collaborators,

Kombinujući sve naše podatke sa našim saradnicima,

we had 20-year time series of toxins and phytoplankton cell counts.

dobili smo broj ćelija otrova i fitoplaktona u periodu od 20 godina.

And that allowed us to understand the patterns of these blooms

To nam je omogućilo da razumemo šablone tog tipa cvetanja

and to build models to predict them.

i da izgradimo modele kako bismo ih predvideli.

And what we found

A to što smo otkrili je bilo to

was that the risk of harmful algal blooms was tightly linked to aspects of climate.

da je rizik cvetanja štetnih algi usko povezan sa aspektima klime.

Now when I say "climate," I don't mean weather day-to-day,

Kad kažem „klima”, ne mislim na svakodnevno vreme,

I mean long-term changes.

mislim na dugoročne promene.

These oscillations that you may have heard of --

Ove oscilacije za koje ste možda čuli,

the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, El Niño --

Pacifička dekadna oscilacija (PDO), El Ninjo,

they usually bring warm, dry winters to this region,

uglavnom donose tople, suve zime u ovaj region,

but they also reduce the strength of the California Current,

ali takođe smanjuju jačinu kalifornijske struje

which runs from the north to the south along the Pacific Northwest,

koja teče od severa ka jugu duž pacifičkog severozapada

and they warm the coastal ocean.

i greju priobalne delove okeana.

These are the reds you're seeing in this plot,

To su ovi crveni delovi koje vidite na nacrtu,

warm anomalies,

tople anomalije,

strong positive indices of the PDO.

jaki pozitivni indikatori PDO.

And when we have these changes in circulation

Kada imamo ove promene u cirkulaciji

and changes in temperature,

i promene temperature,

the risk of harmful algal blooms is increased,

rizik od cvetanja štetnih algi je povećan,

but also salmon recruitment has decreased,

ali takođe broj lososa je opao,

and we see intrusions of invasive species like green crab.

i vidimo nametanje invazivnih vrsta kao što je zelena kraba.

So these are ecological and economic impacts of climate.

Ovo su ekološki i ekonomski uticaji klime.

Now, if our models are right,

Ako su naši modeli u pravu,

the frequency and severity of these events are only going to get worse,

učestalost i jačina ovih događaja će samo da se pogoršavaju,

right along with these warm anomalies.

tik uz ove tople anomalije.

And, to illustrate that,

A da bih vam pokazala, 2014. godina je bila

2014 was probably one of the worst harmful algal blooms in Oregon history.

najgora zbog cvetanja štetnih algi u istoriji Oregona.

It was also the hottest year in the modern climate record at that time,

Bila je i najtoplija godina u registru temperatura u tom trenutku,

that is until 2015,

sve do 2015. godine,

2016,

pa do 2016. godine,

2017, 2018.

pa do 2017. godine, pa do 2018. godine.

In fact, the five hottest years in the modern climate record

U stvari, pet najtoplijih godina u globalnom registru temperatura

have been the last five.

su bile poslednjih pet.

That bodes really well for harmful algal blooms

To je pogodno za cvetanje štetnih algi

and poorly for ecosystem health.

i loše za zdravlje ekosistema.

Now, you may not care about shellfish,

Možda ne marite za školjke,

but these changes impact economically important fisheries,

ali ove promene utiču na ekonomski važne ribnjake,

like crab and salmon,

kao što su za krabe i losose,

and they can impact the health of marine mammals like whales.

a oni mogu da utiču na zdravlje morskih sisara kao što su kitovi.

And that might matter a little bit more.

A to nam možda znači malo više.

That might resonate.

To možda odjekne.

So, there's your doomsday tale for the margins of the Pacific.

To je priča o sudnjem danu margina Pacifika.

Actually, these are really resilient ecosystems.

Zapravo, ovi su zaista otporni ekosistemi.

They can absolutely bounce back if we give them a chance.

Apsolutno mogu da se poboljšaju ako im damo šansu.

The point is not to ignore the changes that we're seeing,

Poenta nije da ignorišemo promene koje vidimo,

which brings me to my second vignette.

što me dovodi do druge ilustracije.

I have since moved to the most remote island chain on our planet,

Od tada sam se premestila na najudaljeniji lanac ostrva na planeti,

the Hawaiian Islands,

Havajska ostrva,

where I'm the new lead of a program called the Hawaiian Ocean Time-series.

gde sam novi vođa programa pod nazivom Serije havajskog okeanskog vremena.

And this is a program that for 31 years

Ovo je program koji je 31 godinu

has made this monthly pilgrimage to a spot called Station ALOHA.

išao jednom mesečno do mesta zvano stanica Aloha.

It's in the middle of the Pacific Ocean,

Nalazi se u sred Tihog okeana,

in the center of this vast, swirling system of currents

u centru ovog ogromnog, kovitlavog sistema struja

that we call the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre.

koji zovemo severni pacifički suptropski krug.

It's our largest ocean ecosystem.

To je naš najveći okeanski ekosistem.

It's four times the size of the Amazon rain forest.

Veličine je četiri amazonske kišne šume.

It is warm, in a good way.

Toplo je, ali na dobar način.

It is blue water,

To je plava voda,

it's absolutely the type of place you want to dive in and swim.

to je apsolutno tip mesta gde želite da zaronite i plivate.

You cannot do that off of research boats,

Ne možete to uraditi sa istraživačkih brodova,

because, you know, sharks. Google it.

jer znate, ajkule. Izguglajte to.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

This is a beautiful place.

Ovo je divno mesto.

And here, since October of 1988,

I ovde su, od oktobra 1988. godine,

generations of researchers have made these monthly pilgrimages.

generacije istraživača dolazile jednom mesečno.

We study the biology, the chemistry, the physics of the open ocean.

Proučavamo biologiju, hemiju i fiziku otvorenog okeana.

We've measured the temperature from the surface to the seafloor.

Izmerili smo temperaturu od površine do okeanskog dna.

We've tracked the currents, traced the waves.

Vodili smo evidenciju o strujama, pratili talase.

People have discovered new organisms here.

Ljudi su ovde otkrili nove organizme.

People have created vast genomic libraries

Ljudi su stvorili ogromne genomske biblioteke

that have revolutionized

koje su izazvale preokret

what we think about the diversity of marine microorganisms.

u tome šta mislimo o raznovrsnosti morskih mikroorganizama.

It's not just a place of discovery,

To nije samo mesto otkrića,

but the important part about time series

nego i važan deo u vremenskim serijama

are that they provide us a sense of history,

jer nam pružaju osećaj istorije,

a sense of context.

osećaj konteksta.

And in 30 years of data,

A sa podacima skupljenim tokom 30 godina,

it's allowed us to separate the seasonal change

bili smo u mogućnosti da odvojimo sezonske promene

and see the emergence of humanity's fingerprints

i vidimo uticaj čovečanstva

on the natural world.

na prirodni svet.

There's another iconic time series in Hawaii,

Postoji još jedna vremenska serija na Havajima,

and that is the Keeling Curve.

a to je Kilingova kriva.

I hope you have all seen this.

Nadam se da ste svi ovo videli.

This time series has documented the rapid increase in carbon dioxide

Ova vremenska serija je dokumentovala brzi porast ugljen-dioksida u atmosferi.

in the atmosphere.

It's not just the number, it's the rate of increase.

To nije samo broj, već stopa porasta.

The rate of carbon dioxide increase in our atmosphere

Stopa rasta ugljen-dioksida u atmosferi

is unprecedented for our planet.

je jedinstvena za našu planetu.

And that has consequences for our oceans.

To nosi posledice za naše okeane.

In fact, oceans absorb about 90 percent of the heat that's generated

U stvari, okeani upijaju oko 90 procenata toplote koja se generiše

by greenhouse gas emissions

emisijom gasova staklene bašte

and about 40 percent of the carbon dioxide.

i oko 40 procenata ugljen-dioksida.

And we have been able to measure that at Station ALOHA.

A bili smo u mogućnosti da to merimo u stanici Aloha.

Each one of these dots is a cruise.

Svaka od ovih tački je krstarenje.

It represents people's lives over 30 years trying to make these measurements,

Predstavlja živote ljudi tokom 30 godina koji su pokušavali da izvrše ova merenja,

and it took 30 years to be able to see this.

i bilo je potrebno 30 godina da bi se ovo videlo.

CO2 rises in the atmosphere,

CO2 raste u atmosferi,

CO2 rises in the ocean.

CO2 raste u okeanima.

That's the red line.

To je crvena linija.

A consequence of that

Posledica toga

is a fundamental change in the chemistry of seawater,

je fundamentalna promena u hemijskom sastavu morske vode,

a decline in pH --

opadanje u pH vrednosti,

pH is on a log scale,

pH je na logaritamskom opsegu

here's your blue line.

to je plava linija.

So we've seen a 30 percent decline in pH in the surface ocean

Dakle, videli smo 30 procenata opadanja pH vrednosti na površini okeana

in this time series.

u ovoj vremenskoj seriji.

Now that has impacts for organisms that need to feed, build shells,

To ima uticaj na organizme koji treba da se hrane, grade školjke,

that changes growth rates, metabolic interactions,

to menja stope rasta, metaboličke interakcije,

and it doesn't just impact plankton --

i ne utiče samo na plankton,

it impacts ecosystems as large as coral reefs.

utiče na ekosisteme koji su veliki koliko i koralni grebeni.

Now one of the things we've been able to show in this time series

Jednu od stvari smo bili u mogućnosti da pokažemo u ovoj vremenskoj seriji,

is this is just skimming the surface.

a to je da je ovo samo brzo pregledanje površine.

Increases in CO2 and a decline in pH

Povećanja ugljen-dioksida i smanjenje pH vrednosti

are measured over the top 500 meters of the water column.

su izmereni nad 500 metara vodenog stuba.

I really find that to be profound.

Zaista smatram da je to duboko.

This is genuinely one of the most remote places on our planet,

Ovo je zaista jedno od najudaljenijih mesta na planeti,

and we've impacted the top 500 meters of the water column.

i uticali smo na 500 metara vodenog stuba.

Now, these two things --

Ove dve stvari,

harmful algal blooms, ocean acidification --

cvetanje štetnih algi, acidifikacija okeana,

that's not all, of course.

to, naravno, nije sve.

You've heard of the rest:

Čuli ste za ostalo:

sea-level rise, eutrophication, melting of the polar ice caps,

podizanje nivoa mora, eutrofikacija, topljenje polarnih ledenih kapa,

expansion of oxygen minimum zones, pollution, loss of biodiversity,

širenje kiseonikovih minimalnih zona, zagađenje, opadanje stope biodiverziteta,

overfishing.

prekomerno pecanje.

It's hard for me to get a grad student --

Teško mi je da nađem diplomca,

you can see this pitch is a difficult one, right?

možete da zamislite koliko je teško ubediti nekoga, zar ne?

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

(Sighs)

(Uzdiše)

Again, I think these systems, these microbial ecosystems,

Opet, mislim da su ovi sistemi, ovi mikrobski ekosistemi,

are immensely resilient.

neizmerno otporni.

We just cannot go too far down this path.

Prosto ne možemo još zadugo ovim putem.

I personally believe that sustained observation of our oceans and our planet

Lično verujem da je neprestano posmatranje naših okeana i naše planete

is the moral imperative for our generation of scientists.

moralni imperativ za našu generaciju naučnika.

We are bearing witness

Svedoci smo promena koje se nameću našim prirodnim zajednicama,

to the changes that are being inflicted upon our natural communities,

and by doing so,

i zato što sve to posmatramo,

it provides us the opportunity to adapt and enact global change,

obezbeđuje nam priliku da prilagodimo i izvršimo globalnu promenu,

if we're willing.

ako smo voljni da to uradimo.

So the solutions to these problems are multitiered.

Rešenja za ove probleme su višeslojna.

It involves a portfolio of solutions,

Uključuju portfolio rešenja,

local change,

lokalne promene,

but all the way up to voting for people who will protect our environment

pa sve do glasanja za ljude koji će zaštititi naše okruženje

on a global scale.

na globalnom nivou.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

Let's bring it back to the love.

Hajde da se vratimo na ljubav.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

Microbes matter.

Mikrobi su važni.

These organisms are small,

Ovi organizmi su mali,

abundant, ancient,

ima ih u izobilju, stari su,

and they are critical to sustaining our population and our planet.

i presudni su za održavanje naše populacije i naše planete.

Yet we are on track to double our carbon dioxide emissions

A ipak na putu smo da udvostručimo emisiju ugljen-dioksida

in the next 50 years,

u sledećih 50 godina,

so the analogy that I use for that

a analogija koju koristim za to je

is like we are eating like we're still in our 20s,

da jedemo kao da smo i dalje u dvadesetim godinama,

assuming there will be no consequences --

gde pretpostavljamo da neće biti posledica,

but I'm a woman in her 40s,

ali ja sam žena u svojim četrdesetim godinama,

I know there are consequences for my fuel consumption. Right?

znam da postoje posledice moje potrošnje goriva. Zar ne?

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

These oceans are very much alive.

Ovi okeani su živi.

These ecosystems have not collapsed.

Ovi ekosistemi se nisu urušuli.

Well, except for the Arctic, we can talk about that.

Dobro, izuzev Arktika, možemo da pričamo o tome.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

But the sustained observations that I've shared with you today,

Nego neprekidna posmatranja koja sam podelila sa vama danas,

the work of generations of scientists,

rad generacija naučnika,

are pointing us to take better care of our oceans

nam ukazuju da se bolje pobrinemo za naše okeane

and to nurture the microbes that sustain us.

i da negujemo mikrobe koji nas održavaju.

And on that note,

A kad smo kod toga,

I want to end with a quote from one of my heroes,

želim da završim sa citatom jednog mog heroja,

Jane Lubchenco.

Džejn Lubčenko.

And this slide is appropriate.

A ovaj slajd je prikladan.

Jane has said that the oceans are not too big to fail,

Džejn je rekla da okeani nisu preveliki da bi propali,

nor are they too big to fix,

niti da su preveliki za popravljanje,

but the oceans are too big to ignore.

ali da su okeani preveliki da bi se ignorisali.

Thank you.

Hvala vam.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)