Can we stop climate change by removing CO2 from the air? | Tim Kruger

Prevodilac: Ema Maričić Lektor: Tijana Mihajlović

To avoid dangerous climate change,

Kako bismo izbegli opasne klimatske promene,

we're going to need to cut emissions rapidly.

moraćemo da drastično smanjimo emisije.

That should be a pretty uncontentious statement,

To ne bi trebalo da izazove neslaganja,

certainly with this audience.

pogotovo kod ove publike.

But here's something that's slightly more contentious:

Ali, evo nečega što će biti malo problematično -

it's not going to be enough.

to neće biti dovoljno.

We will munch our way through our remaining carbon budget

Premašićemo granicu emisije CO2

for one and a half degrees

i temperatura će porasti za 1,5 stepena za par kratkih godina,

in a few short years,

and the two degree budget

a za 2 stepena

in about two decades.

u otprilike naredne 2 decenije.

We need to not only cut emissions extremely rapidly,

Nećemo morati samo da drastično smanjimo emisije,

we also need to take carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere.

već i da uklonimo CO2 iz atmosfere.

Thank you.

Hvala vam.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

I work assessing a whole range of these proposed techniques

Ja radim na procenjivanju različitih predloženih tehnika

to see if they can work.

kako bih video da li rade.

We could use plants to take CO2 out,

Mogli bismo da koristimo biljke kako bismo uklonili CO2

and then store it in trees,

i onda da ga skladištimo u drveće,

in the soil, deep underground or in the oceans.

u površinski sloj zemlje ili dubinski, ili u okeane.

We could build large machines, so-called artificial trees,

Mogli bismo da izgradimo velike mašine, takozvano veštačko drveće,

that will scrub CO2 from the air.

koje bi malo uklanjalo CO2 iz vazduha.

For these ideas to be feasible,

Kako bi ove ideje bile izvodljive,

we need to understand whether they can be applied

moramo da znamo da li mogu biti primenjene

at a vast scale in a way that is safe, economic and socially acceptable.

na većoj razmeri bezbedno, ekonomično i društveno prihvatljivo.

All of these ideas come with tradeoffs.

Svaka od ovih ideja je kompromisna.

None of them are perfect,

Nijedna nije savršena,

but many have potential.

ali mnoge imaju potencijal.

It's unlikely that any one of them will solve it on its own.

Malo je verovatno da bi bilo koja od njih sama rešila problem.

There is no silver bullet,

Nema magičnog rešenja,

but potentially together, they may form the silver buckshot

ali bi one potencijalno mogle zajedno da sastave rešenje

that we need to stop climate change in its tracks.

koje nam je potrebno da sprečimo klimatske promene sada.

I'm working independently on one particular idea

Nezavisno radim na jednoj ideji

which uses natural gas to generate electricity

koja koristi zemni gas u stvaranju struje

in a way that takes carbon dioxide out of the air.

tako da oduzima ugljen-dioksid iz atmosfere.

Huh? How does that work?

A? Kako to radi?

So the Origen Power Process feeds natural gas into a fuel cell.

„Oridžin Pauer Proces“ puni gorivnu ćeliju zemnim gasom.

About half the chemical energy is converted into electricity,

Oko pola te hemijske energije se pretvara u struju,

and the remainder into heat,

a ostatak u toplotu,

which is used to break down limestone

koja se koristi za razgradnju krečenjaka

into lime and carbon dioxide.

na kreč i ugljen-dioksid.

Now at this point, you're probably thinking that I'm nuts.

Sad verovatno mislite da sam lud.

It's actually generating carbon dioxide.

To zapravo stvara ugljen-dioksid.

But the key point is, all of the carbon dioxide generated,

Ali je ključno da je sav nastali ugljen-dioksid,

both from the fuel cell and from the lime kiln, is pure,

onaj iz gorivne ćelije, kao i onaj iz krečnjaka, čist,

and that's really important,

a to je veoma važno,

because it means you can either use that carbon dioxide

jer to znači da se taj ugljen-dioksid može koristiti

or you can store it away deep underground at low cost.

ili pak skladišiti duboko u zemlju po niskoj ceni.

And then the lime that you produce can be used in industrial processes,

Nastali kreč se može koristiti u industrijskim postrojenjima

and in being used, it scrubs CO2 out of the air.

i, kada se to čini, CO2 se uklanja iz vazduha.

Overall, the process is carbon negative.

Sve u svemu, proces smanjuje koncentraciju ugljen-dioksida.

It removes carbon dioxide from the air.

Uklanja ugljen-diokid iz vazduha.

If you normally generate electricity from natural gas,

Kada se klasično stvara struja iz zemnog gasa,

you emit about 400 grams of CO2 into the air

oslobađa se oko 400 grama CO2 u vazduh

for every kilowatt-hour.

za svaki kilovat sata.

With this process, that figure is minus 600.

Ovim procesom ta cifra je minus 600.

At the moment, power generation is responsible

Trenutno, stvaranje struje je odgovorno

for about a quarter of all carbon dioxide emissions.

za četvrtinu svih emisija ugljen-dioksida.

Hypothetically, if you replaced all power generation with this process,

Hipotetički, ako bismo zamenili ovim procesom ostale načine stvaranja struje,

then you would not only eliminate all of the emissions from power generation

ne samo da bismo eliminisali sve emisije nastale stvaranjem struje,

but you would start removing emissions from other sectors as well,

već bismo i uklanjali emisije ostalih

potentially cutting 60 percent of overall carbon emissions.

i tako bi potencijalno bilo uklonjeno 60 procenata svih emisija ugljen-dioksida.

You could even use the lime

Kreč bi mogao da se koristi

to add it directly to seawater to counteract ocean acidification,

tako što bi se direktno dodao u morsku vodu

kako bi se sprečila acidifikacija okeana,

one of the other issues that is caused by CO2 in the atmosphere.

jedan od problema izazvanih od strane ugljen-dioksida u atmosferi.

In fact, you get more bang for your buck.

Zapravo, odnos cene i dobitka je još povoljniji.

You absorb about twice as much carbon dioxide when you add it to seawater

Apsorbuje se duplo više ugljen-dioksida kad se koristi morska voda

as when you use it industrially.

u industrijskom procesu.

But this is where it gets really complicated.

Ovde stvari postaju komplikovane.

While counteracting ocean acidification is a good thing,

Iako je proces neutralisanja acidifikacije okeana dobar,

we don't fully understand what the environmental consequences are,

ne razumemo u potpunosti kakve su posledice po životnu sredinu,

and so we need to assess whether this treatment

tako da moramo da procenimo da li je ovaj pristup

is actually better than the disease that it is seeking to cure.

zaista bolji od bolesti koju želimo da izlečimo.

We need to put in place step-by-step governance

Moramo da postepeno upravljamo eksperimentima

for experiments to assess this safely.

eksperimentima da bismo bezbedno to procenili.

And the scale:

A razmera je sledeća:

to avoid dangerous climate change,

da bismo izbegli opasne klimatske promene,

we are going to need to remove trillions --

biće potrebno da uklonimo trilione;

and yes, that's trillions with a T --

da, trilione, sa slovom „t“,

trillions of tons of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere in the decades ahead.

trilione tona ugljen-dioksida iz atmosfere u narednim decenijama.

It will cost a few percent of GDP -- think defense-sized expenditure,

To će koštati nekoliko procenata BDP-a, nalik troškovima za odbranu,

lots of industrial activity

mnogo industrijske aktivnosti

and inevitably harmful side effects.

i neizbežnih nuspojava.

But if the scale seems enormous,

Ali, ako razmera izgleda ogromno,

it is only because of the scale of the problem

to je zato što je razmera problema

that we are seeking to solve.

ono što želimo da promenimo,

It's enormous as well.

takođe ogromna.

We can no longer avoid these thorny issues.

Ne možemo više da izbegavamo ove mučne probleme.

We face risks whichever way we turn:

Suočavamo se sa rizicima kud god se okrenemo;

a world changed by climate change

svet koji će promeniti klimatske promene

or a world changed by climate change and our efforts to counter climate change.

ili svet koji će promeniti klimatske promene

i naši pokušaji da ih sprečimo.

Would that it were not so,

Divno bi bilo da je tako jednostavno,

but we can no longer afford to close our eyes, block our ears,

ali ne možemo više da priuštimo da zatvaramo oči, začepljujemo uši

and say la-la-la.

i pevušimo: „La-la-la.“

We need to grow up and face the consequences of our actions.

Moramo da odrastemo i da se suočimo sa posledicama naših postupaka.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

Does talk of curing climate change undermine the will to cut emissions?

Da li rasprava o sprečavanju klimatskih promena

potkopava volju za smanjivanjem emisija?

This is a real concern,

To je pravi problem,

so we need to emphasize the paramount importance of reducing emissions

tako da moramo da naglasimo vrhovni značaj smanjivanja emisija

and how speculative these ideas are.

i koliko su spekultaivne ove ideje.

But having done so, we still need to examine them.

I ako to uradimo, trebalo bi da ih proučavamo.

Can we cure climate change?

Da li možemo da sprečimo klimatske promene?

I don't know, but we certainly can't if we don't try.

Ne znam, ali sigurno ne možemo ako ne pokušamo.

We need ambition without arrogance.

Treba nam ambicija bez arogancije.

We need the ambition to restore the atmosphere,

Treba nam ambicija da povratimo atmosferu,

to draw down carbon dioxide

da smanjimo ugljen-dioksid

back to a level that is compatible with a stable climate and healthy oceans.

na nivo koji omogućava stabilnu klimu i zdrave okeane.

This will be an enormous undertaking.

Ovo će biti ogroman podvig.

You could describe it as a cathedral project.

Mogao bi se ilustrovati kao projekat katedrale.

Those involved at the outset

Oni koji su uključeni na početku

may draft the plans and dig the foundations,

možda će skicirati plan i kopati temelje,

but they will not raise the spire to its full height.

ali oni je neće podići u visine.

That task, that privilege,

Taj zadatak, ta privilegija,

belongs to our descendants.

pripada našim potomcima.

None of us will see that day, but we must start in the hope

Niko od nas neće videti taj dan, ali moramo početi sa nadom

that future generations will be able to finish the job.

da će buduće generacije moći da završe posao.

So, do you want to change the world?

Pa, da li želite da promenite svet?

I don't.

Ja ne želim.

I do not seek the change the world,

Ne tražim menjanje sveta,

but rather keep it as it's meant to be.

već očuvanje onoga što on treba da bude.

Thank you.

Hvala vam.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

Chris Anderson: Thanks. I just want to ask you a couple of other questions.

Kris Anderson: Hvala. Hteo bih da ti postavim još par pitanja.

Tell us a bit more about this idea of putting lime in the ocean.

Ispričaj nam još malo o ideji sipanja kreča u okean.

I mean, on the face of it, it's pretty compelling --

Hoću da kažem da izgleda veoma primamljivo,

anti-ocean acidification --

sprečava acidifikaciju okeana

and it absorbs more CO2.

i apsorbuje više CO2.

You talked about, we need to do an experiment on this.

Pominjao si da treba da sprovedemo eksperiment o ovome.

What would a responsible experiment look like?

Kako bi on izgledao?

Tim Kruger: So I think you need to do a series of experiments,

Tim Kruger: Smatram da treba da se uradi niz eksperimenata,

ali treba da se urade postepeno,

but you need to do them just very small stage-by-stage.

In the same way, when you're trialing a new drug,

kao što, kada testirate nov lek,

you wouldn't just go into human trials straight off.

ne počinjete sa testiranjem na ljudima.

You would do a small experiment.

Prvo radite manji eksperiment.

And so the first things to do are experiments entirely on land,

Prvo bi trebalo da se rade na kopnu,

in special containers, away from the environment.

u specijalnim kontejnerima, daleko od životne sredine.

And then once you are confident that that can be done safely,

A kada ste uvereni da se to odvija bezbedno,

you move to the next stage.

prelazite u sledeću fazu.

If you're not confident, you don't.

Ako niste, onda ne prelazite.

But step by step.

Ali postepeno.

CA: And who would fund such experiments?

KA: I ko bi finansirao takve eksperimente?

Because they kind of impact the whole planet at some level.

Jer imaju nekakav uticaj na celu planetu na nekom nivou.

Is that why nothing is happening on this?

Da li je to razlog što se ništa u vezi sa ovim ne dešava?

TK: So I think you can do small-scale experiments in national waters,

TK: Mislim da mogu da se rade manji eksperimenti u nacionalnim vodama.

and then it's probably the requirement of national funders to do that.

To je verovatno uslov za nacionalne finansijere.

But ultimately, if you wanted to counter ocean acidification in this way

Ali, na kraju, ako želite da sprečite acidifikaciju okeana na ovaj način,

on a global scale,

u globalnim razmerama,

you would need to do it in international waters,

morate to da radite u međunarodnim vodama

and then you would need to have an international community working on it.

i trebala bi vam međunarodna zajednica da radi na tome.

CA: Even in national waters, you know, the ocean's all connected.

KA: Čak i u nacionalnim vodama, okean je „povezan“.

That lime is going to get out there.

Kreč će se mešati.

And people feel outraged about doing experiments on the planet,

A ljudi ne podnose eksperimente koji se vrše nad planetom,

as we've heard.

što smo već čuli.

How do you counter that?

Kako biste se tome usprotivili?

TK: I think you touch on something which is really important.

TK: Dotakli ste se nečega što je jako važno.

It's about a social license to operate.

To je društvena dozvola za rad.

And I think it may be that it is impossible to do,

Mislim da je možda nemoguće,

but we need to have the courage to try,

ali moramo imati hrabrosti da probamo,

to move this forward,

da pomerimo ovo napred,

to see what we can do,

vidimo šta možemo da uradimo

and to engage openly.

i da se otvoreno uključimo.

And we need to engage with people in a transparent way.

I treba da uključimo ljude transparentno.

We need to ask them beforehand.

Treba da ih pitamo pre toga.

And I think if we ask them,

I mislim da, ako ih pitamo,

we have to be open to the possibility that the answer will come back,

moramo da budemo otvoreni i za mogućnost odgovora:

"No, don't do it."

„Ne, ne činite to.“

CA: Thanks so much. That was really fascinating.

KA: Hvala ti puno, Time. Zaista fascinantno.

Hvala vama.

TK: Thank you. (Applause)

(Aplauz)