Roger Stein: A bold new way to fund drug research

47,860 views ใƒป 2014-01-07

TED


ืื ื ืœื—ืฅ ืคืขืžื™ื™ื ืขืœ ื”ื›ืชื•ื‘ื™ื•ืช ื‘ืื ื’ืœื™ืช ืœืžื˜ื” ื›ื“ื™ ืœื”ืคืขื™ืœ ืืช ื”ืกืจื˜ื•ืŸ.

ืžืชืจื’ื: Boaz Hovav ืžื‘ืงืจ: Ido Dekkers
00:12
So this is a picture of my dad and me, at the beach in Far Rockaway,
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ื–ื•ื”ื™ ืชืžื•ื ื” ืฉืœ ืื‘ื™ ื•ืฉืœื™
ืขืœ ื—ื•ืฃ ื”ื™ื ื‘ืขื™ืจื” ืคืืจ ืจื•ืงืื•ื•ื™,
ืื• ื‘ืขืฆื ื‘ืคืจืง ืจื•ืงืื•ื•ื™.
00:19
or actually Rockaway Park.
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00:20
I'm the one with the blond hair.
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ืื ื™ ืขื ื”ืฉืขืจ ื‘ืœื•ื ื“ื™ื ื™.
00:23
My dad's the guy with the cigarette.
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ืื‘ื ืฉืœื™ ืขื ื”ืกื™ื’ืจื™ื”.
00:25
It was the 60's.
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ื”ืชืžื•ื ื” ืฆื•ืœืžื” ื‘ืฉื ื•ืช ื”- 60. ื”ืจื‘ื” ืื ืฉื™ื ืขื™ืฉื ื• ื‘ื–ืžื ื•.
00:26
A lot of people smoked back then.
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ื‘ืงื™ืฅ ืฉืœ ืฉื ืช 2009,
00:28
In the summer of 2009, my dad was diagnosed with lung cancer.
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ืื‘ื™ ืื•ื‘ื—ืŸ ื›ื—ื•ืœื” ื‘ืกืจื˜ืŸ ื”ืจืื•ืช.
00:34
Cancer is one of those things that actually touches everybody.
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ืกืจื˜ืŸ ื”ื•ื ืื—ื“ ืžื”ื“ื‘ืจื™ื ืฉื ื•ื’ืขื™ื ื‘ืืžืช ื‘ื›ื•ืœื.
ืื ืืชื” ื’ื‘ืจ ืืžืจื™ืงืื™,
00:38
If you're a man in the US,
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00:40
you've got about a one in two chance
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ื™ืฉ ืœืš ืกื™ื›ื•ื™ ืฉืœ ื‘ืขืจืš ืื—ื“ ืžืฉื ื™ื™ื
00:42
of being diagnosed with cancer during your lifetime.
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ืœื—ืœื•ืช ื‘ืกืจื˜ืŸ ื‘ืžื”ืœืš ื—ื™ื™ืš.
00:45
If you're a woman, you've got about a one in three chance
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ืื ืืช ืืฉื”, ื”ืกื™ื›ื•ื™ ื”ื•ื ื‘ืขืจืš ืื—ืช ืžืฉืœื•ืฉ
00:48
of being diagnosed with cancer.
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ืœื—ืœื•ืช ื‘ืกืจื˜ืŸ.
ื›ื•ืœื ืžื›ื™ืจื™ื ืžื™ืฉื”ื•
00:51
Everybody knows somebody who's been diagnosed with cancer.
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ืฉืื•ื‘ื—ืŸ ื›ื—ื•ืœื” ื‘ืกืจื˜ืŸ.
00:55
Now, my dad's doing better today,
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ืžืฆื‘ื• ืฉืœ ืื‘ื™ ื˜ื•ื‘ ื™ื•ืชืจ ื›ื™ื•ื,
00:56
and part of the reason for that is that he was able to participate in the trial
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ื•ืื—ืช ืžื”ืกื™ื‘ื•ืช ืœื›ืš ื”ื™ื
ืฉื”ื•ื ื”ืฆืœื™ื— ืœื”ืฉืชืชืฃ ื‘ื ื™ืกื•ื™
01:02
of an experimental new drug that happened to be specially formulated
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ืฉืœ ืชืจื•ืคื” ื ื™ืกื™ื•ื ื™ืช ื—ื“ืฉื”
ืฉื‘ืžืงืจื” ืคื•ืชื—ื” ื‘ืื•ืคืŸ ืžื™ื•ื—ื“
01:05
and very good for his particular kind of cancer.
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ื•ื”ื™ื ื™ืขื™ืœื” ื‘ืื•ืคืŸ ืžื™ื•ื—ื“ ื›ื ื’ื“ ืกื•ื’ ื”ืกืจื˜ืŸ ื”ืกืคืฆื™ืคื™ ืฉืœื•.
ื™ืฉ ื™ื•ืชืจ ืž- 200 ืกื•ื’ื™ ืกืจื˜ืŸ.
01:07
There are over 200 kinds of cancer.
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01:10
And what I want to talk about today
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ื•ื ื•ืฉื ื”ื”ืจืฆืื” ืฉืœื™ ื”ื™ื•ื ื”ื•ื
01:12
is how we can help more people like my dad,
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ื›ื™ืฆื“ ื ื™ืชืŸ ืœืขื–ื•ืจ ืœื™ื•ืชืจ ืื ืฉื™ื ื›ืžื• ืื‘ื™,
01:15
because we have to change the way we think about raising money
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ื›ื™ ืื ื—ื ื• ื—ื™ื™ื‘ื™ื ืœืฉื ื•ืช ืืช ื“ืจืš ื”ืžื—ืฉื‘ื” ืฉืœื ื• ืขืœ ื’ื™ื•ืก ื›ืกืคื™ื
01:18
to fund cancer research.
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ืœืžื™ืžื•ืŸ ื—ืงืจ ืžื—ืœืช ื”ืกืจื˜ืŸ.
01:21
So a while after my dad was diagnosed,
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ืžืขื˜ ืื—ืจื™ ืฉืื‘ื™ ืื•ื‘ื—ืŸ ื›ื—ื•ืœื” ืกืจื˜ืŸ
01:23
I was having coffee with my friend Andrew Lo.
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ื ืคื’ืฉืชื™ ืœืงืคื” ืขื ื™ื“ื™ื“ื™ ืื ื“ืจื• ืœื•.
01:26
He's the head of the Laboratory for Financial Engineering at MIT,
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ื”ื•ื ืจืืฉ ื”ืžืขื‘ื“ื” ืœื”ื ื“ืกื” ืคื™ื ื ืกื™ืช ื‘ืื•ื ื™ื‘ืจืกื™ื˜ืช MIT,
01:29
where I also have a position,
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ืฉื ืื ื™ ืขื•ื‘ื“,
01:31
and we were talking about cancer.
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ื•ื“ื™ื‘ืจื ื• ืขืœ ืžื—ืœืช ื”ืกืจื˜ืŸ.
ืื ื“ืจื• ืขืฉื” ืงืฆืช ืžื—ืงืจ ืžืฉืœื•,
01:33
And Andrew had been doing his own bits of research,
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01:35
and one of the things that he had been told
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ื•ืื—ื“ ื”ื“ื‘ืจื™ื ืฉื ืืžืจื• ืœื•
01:37
and that he'd learned from studying the literature
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ื•ืฉื”ื•ื ืœืžื“ ืžืงืจื™ืืช ื”ืกืคืจื•ืช
01:42
was that there's actually a big bottleneck.
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ื”ื•ื ืฉื™ืฉ ืฆื•ื•ืืจ ื‘ืงื‘ื•ืง ื’ื“ื•ืœ.
01:44
It's very difficult to develop new drugs,
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ืงืฉื” ืžืื“ ืœืคืชื— ืชืจื•ืคื•ืช ื—ื“ืฉื•ืช,
01:46
and the reason it's difficult to develop new drugs
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ื•ื”ืกื™ื‘ื” ื‘ื’ืœืœื” ืงืฉื” ืœืคืชื— ืชืจื•ืคื•ืช ื—ื“ืฉื•ืช
01:48
is because in the early stages of drug development,
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ื”ื™ื ืฉื‘ืฉืœื‘ื™ ื”ืคื™ืชื•ื— ื”ืจืืฉื•ื ื™ื ืฉืœ ื”ืชืจื•ืคื”,
ื”ืกื™ื›ื•ืŸ ืžืื“ ื’ื‘ื•ื”,
01:51
the drugs are very risky, and they're very expensive.
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ื•ื”ืคื™ืชื•ื— ืžืื“ ื™ืงืจ.
01:53
So Andrew asked me if I'd want to maybe work with him a bit,
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ืื– ืื ื“ืจื• ืฉืืœ ืื•ืชื™ ืื ืื ื™ ืืจืฆื”
ืœืขื‘ื•ื“ ืืชื• ืžืขื˜,
01:56
work on some of the math and the analytics
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ืœืขื‘ื•ื“ ืขืœ ื—ื™ืฉื•ื‘ื™ื ืžืชืžื˜ื™ื™ื ื•ื ื™ืชื•ื—ื™ื ืžืชืžื˜ื™ื™ื
ืขืœ ืžื ืช ืœืจืื•ืช ืื ื ื•ื›ืœ ืœื”ืชื’ื‘ืจ ืขืœ ื”ื‘ืขื™ื”.
01:58
and see if we could figure out something we could do.
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ืื ื™ ืœื ืžื“ืขืŸ.
02:02
Now I'm not a scientist.
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02:03
You know, I don't know how to build a drug.
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ืื ื™ ืœื ื™ื•ื“ืข ืื™ืš ืœืคืชื— ืชืจื•ืคื•ืช.
02:05
And none of my coauthors, Andrew Lo or Jose-Maria Fernandez or David Fagnan --
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ื•ืืฃ ืื—ื“ ืžื”ืฉื•ืชืคื™ื ืฉืœื™, ืื ื“ืจื• ืœื•
ืื• ื—ื•ื–ื” ืžืจื™ื” ืคืจื ื ื“ื– ืื• ื“ื™ื•ื•ื™ื“ ืคืื’ื ืืŸ --
02:10
none of those guys are scientists either.
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ืืฃ ืื—ื“ ืžื”ื -- ื”ื•ื ืœื ืžื“ืขืŸ ื’ื ื›ืŸ.
02:13
We don't know the first thing about how to make a cancer drug.
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ืื ื—ื ื• ืœื ื™ื•ื“ืขื™ื ื“ื‘ืจ ื•ื—ืฆื™ ื“ื‘ืจ ืขืœ ืคื™ืชื•ื— ืชืจื•ืคื” ืœืกืจื˜ืŸ.
02:16
But we know a little bit about risk mitigation
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ืื‘ืœ ืื ื—ื ื• ืžื‘ื™ื ื™ื ืžืฉื”ื• ื‘ื—ืœื•ืงืช ืกื™ื›ื•ื ื™ื
ื•ืขื•ื“ ืงืฆืช ืขืœ ื”ื ื“ืกื” ืคื™ื ื ืกื™ืช,
02:19
and a little bit about financial engineering,
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ืื– ื”ืชื—ืœื ื• ืœื—ืฉื•ื‘, ืžื” ื ื•ื›ืœ ืื ื—ื ื• ืœืขืฉื•ืช?
02:21
and so we started thinking, what could we do?
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ื”ื™ื•ื ืื ื™ ืืกืคืจ ืœื›ื ืขืœ ื—ืœืง ืžื”ืขื‘ื•ื“ื”
02:24
I'm going to tell you about some work
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02:25
we've been doing over the last couple years
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ืฉืขืฉื™ื ื• ื‘ืฉื ืชื™ื™ื ื”ืื—ืจื•ื ื•ืช
ืฉืœื“ืขืชื ื• ืชื•ื›ืœ ืœืฉื ื•ืช ื‘ืื•ืคืŸ ื‘ืกื™ืกื™ ืืช ื”ื“ืจืš
02:28
that we think could fundamentally change the way
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ื‘ื” ื ืขืฉื™ื ืžื—ืงืจื™ ืกืจื˜ืŸ ื•ื“ื‘ืจื™ื ืจื‘ื™ื ืื—ืจื™ื.
02:30
research for cancer and lots of other things gets done.
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02:33
We want to let the research drive the funding,
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ืื ื• ืฉื•ืืคื™ื ืœืืคืฉืจ ืœืžื—ืงืจ ืœื”ื•ื‘ื™ืœ ืืช ื’ื™ื•ืก ื”ื›ืกืคื™ื,
02:36
not the other way around.
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ื•ืœื ืœื”ืคืš.
02:38
So in order to get started,
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ืื– ื‘ืชื•ืจ ื”ืชื—ืœื”, ื‘ื•ืื• ื ื“ื‘ืจ ืขืœ
02:39
let me tell you how you get a drug financed.
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ื“ืจืš ื”ืžื™ืžื•ืŸ ืฉืœ ืคื™ืชื•ื— ืชืจื•ืคื•ืช ื›ื™ื•ื.
02:41
Imagine that you're in your lab -- you're a scientist, you're not like me --
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ื“ืžื™ื™ื ื• ืฉืืชื ื‘ืžืขื‘ื“ื” ืฉืœื›ื --
ืืชื ืžื“ืขื ื™ื, ืœื ื›ืžื•ื ื™ --
ืืชื ืžื“ืขื ื™ื, ื•ืคื™ืชื—ืชื
02:46
and you've developed a new compound
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ืชืจื›ื•ื‘ืช ื—ื“ืฉื” ืฉืœื“ืขืชื›ื ืขืฉื•ื™ื” ืœื”ื™ื•ืช
02:48
that you think might be therapeutic for somebody with cancer.
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ืชืจื•ืคื” ืขื‘ื•ืจ ื—ื•ืœื™ ืกืจื˜ืŸ.
02:52
Well, what you do is, you test in animals, you test in test tubes,
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ืื–, ืžื” ืฉืืชื ืขื•ืฉื™ื, ื–ื” ืœื‘ื“ื•ืง ืืช ื”ืชืจื•ืคื” ืขืœ ื‘ืขืœื™ ื—ื™ื™ื,
ืืชื ื‘ื•ื“ืงื™ื ืืช ื”ืชืจื•ืคื” ื‘ืžื‘ื—ื ื•ืช,
02:55
but there's this notion of going from the bench to the bedside,
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ืื‘ืœ ืงื™ื™ื ื”ืจืขื™ื•ืŸ ื”ื–ื” ืฉืœ ืœืงื•ื ืžื”ืกืคืกืœ
ื•ืœื’ืฉืช ืืœ ืžื™ื˜ืช ื”ื—ื•ืœื”,
02:58
and in order to get from the bench, the lab, to the bedside, to the patients,
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ื•ืขืœ ืžื ืช ืœืงื•ื ืžื”ืกืคืกืœ, ืžื”ืžืขื‘ื“ื”,
ื•ืœื’ืฉืช ืืœ ื”ืžื™ื˜ื”, ืืœ ื”ื—ื•ืœื”,
03:02
you've got to get the drug tested.
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ืืชื ื—ื™ื™ื‘ื™ื ืœื‘ื“ื•ืง ืืช ื”ืชืจื•ืคื”.
03:04
And the way the drug gets tested
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ื•ื”ื“ืจืš ื‘ื” ืชืจื•ืคื•ืช ื ื‘ื“ืงื•ืช ื›ื•ืœืœืช ืกื“ืจื”
03:06
is through a series of, basically, experiments,
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ืฉืœ, ื‘ืื•ืคืŸ ืžื•ืคืฉื˜, ื ื™ืกื•ื™ื™ื,
ื ื™ืกื•ื™ื™ื ื’ื“ื•ืœื™ื ื‘ื‘ื ื™ ืื“ื, ืฉื ืงืจืื™ื ื ื™ืกื•ื™ื™ื ืงืœื™ื ื™ื™ื,
03:08
through these large, they're called trials,
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ืฉืžื‘ื•ืฆืขื™ื ืขืœ ืžื ืช ืœืงื‘ื•ืข ื”ืื ื”ืชืจื•ืคื” ื‘ื˜ื•ื—ื”
03:10
that they do to determine whether the drug is safe
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03:12
and whether it works and all these things.
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ื•ื”ืื ื”ืชืจื•ืคื” ืขื•ื‘ื“ืช ื•ื›ืœ ื”ื“ื‘ืจื™ื ื”ืื—ืจื™ื.
03:14
So the FDA has a very specific protocol.
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ืœืžื ื”ืœ ื”ืžื–ื•ืŸ ื•ื”ืชืจื•ืคื•ืช (FDA) ื™ืฉ ืคืจื•ื˜ื•ืงื•ืœ ืžืคื•ืจื˜.
03:16
In the first phase of this testing,
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ื‘ืฉืœื‘ ื”ื‘ื“ื™ืงื•ืช ื”ืจืืฉื•ืŸ,
03:18
which is called testing for toxicity, it's called Phase I.
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ื”ืžื›ื•ื ื” ื‘ื“ื™ืงื•ืช ืจืขื™ืœื•ืช,
ื•ื ืงืจื ื’ื ืคืื–ื” ืจืืฉื•ื ื” (Phase 1).
03:22
In the first phase, you give the drug to healthy people
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ื‘ืคืื–ื” ื”ืจืืฉื•ื ื”, ื”ืชืจื•ืคื” ื ื™ืชื ืช ืœืื ืฉื™ื ื‘ืจื™ืื™ื
03:25
and you see if it actually makes them sick.
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ื•ืืชื” ื‘ื•ื“ืง ืื ื”ื ื ื”ื™ื™ื ื—ื•ืœื™ื.
03:28
In other words, are the side effects just so severe
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ื‘ืžื™ืœื™ื ืื—ืจื•ืช, ื”ืื ืชื•ืคืขื•ืช ื”ืœื•ื•ืื™ ืฉืœ ื”ืชืจื•ืคื” ื›ื” ื—ืžื•ืจื•ืช
03:30
that no matter how much good it does,
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ืฉืœื ืžืฉื ื” ื›ืžื” ื”ืชืจื•ืคื” ื™ืขื™ืœื”,
ื”ืžื—ื™ืจ ื™ื”ื™ื” ื’ื‘ื•ื” ืžื“ื™?
03:32
it's not going to be worth it?
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ื”ืื ื”ืชืจื•ืคื” ื’ื•ืจืžืช ืœื”ืชืงืคื™ ืœื‘? ื”ื•ืจื’ืช ืื ืฉื™ื?
03:34
Does it cause heart attacks, kill people, liver failure?
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ื”ื•ืจืกืช ืืช ื”ื›ื‘ื“? ื“ื‘ืจื™ื ื›ืืœื”.
ื•ืžืกืชื‘ืจ, ืฉื–ื• ืžืฉื•ื›ื” ื’ื‘ื•ื”ื” ืžืื“.
03:37
And it turns out, that's a pretty high hurdle.
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ื‘ืขืจืš ืฉืœื™ืฉ ืžื”ืชืจื•ืคื•ืช ืœื ืขื•ื‘ืจื•ืช ืืช ื”ืฉืœื‘ ื”ืจืืฉื•ืŸ.
03:39
About a third of all drugs drop out at that point.
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03:41
In the next phase, you test to see if the drug's effective,
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ื‘ืฉืœื‘ ื”ื‘ื“ื™ืงื” ื”ืฉื ื™, ื‘ื•ื“ืงื™ื ื”ืื ื”ืชืจื•ืคื” ื™ืขื™ืœื”,
03:44
and you give it to people with cancer
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ื–ื” ืžื‘ื•ืฆืข ืขืœ ื™ื“ื™ ืžืชืŸ ื”ืชืจื•ืคื” ืœื—ื•ืœื™ ืกืจื˜ืŸ
03:46
and you see if it makes them better.
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ื•ืžืขืงื‘ ืื—ืจื™ื”ื ื›ื“ื™ ืœืจืื•ืช ืื ืžืฆื‘ื ืžืฉืชืคืจ.
ื–ื• ืžืฉื•ื›ื” ื’ื‘ื•ื”ื” ื™ื•ืชืจ. ืขื•ื“ ืชืจื•ืคื•ืช ื ื•ืฉืจื•ืช.
03:48
And that's also a higher hurdle. People drop out.
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ื•ื‘ืฉืœื‘ ื”ืฉืœื™ืฉื™, ื‘ื•ื“ืงื™ื ืืช ื”ืชืจื•ืคื” ืขืœ ืžืกืคืจ ื’ื“ื•ืœ ืžืื“ ืฉืœ ื—ื•ืœื™ื,
03:50
And in the third phase, you test it on a very large sample,
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ื‘ืžื˜ืจื” ืœืžืฆื•ื ืืช ืžื™ื ื•ืŸ ื”ืชืจื•ืคื” ื”ื ื›ื•ืŸ, ื•ื’ื,
03:53
and you're trying to determine what the right dose is,
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ืœืจืื•ืช ืื ื”ืชืจื•ืคื” ื˜ื•ื‘ื” ื™ื•ืชืจ ืžื”ืชืจื•ืคื•ืช ื”ืงื™ื™ืžื•ืช ื›ื‘ืจ ื‘ืฉื•ืง?
03:56
is it better than what's available today? If not, then why build it?
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ืื ืœื, ืžื” ื”ื˜ืขื ืœื™ื™ืฆืจ ืื•ืชื”?
03:59
When you're done with all that,
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ืื—ืจื™ ืฉืกื™ื™ืžืชื ืืช ื›ืœ ื–ื”,
04:01
what you have is a very small percentage of drugs
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ืชื™ืฉืืจื• ืขื ืื—ื•ื– ืงื˜ืŸ ืžืื“ ืฉืœ ืชืจื•ืคื•ืช
04:04
that start the process actually come out the other side.
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ืฉื”ืชื—ื™ืœื• ืืช ืชื”ืœื™ืš ื”ื‘ื“ื™ืงื” ื•ืกื™ื™ืžื• ืื•ืชื• ื‘ื”ืฆืœื—ื”.
04:07
So those blue bottles -- those blue bottles save lives,
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ื”ื‘ืงื‘ื•ืงื™ื ื”ื›ื—ื•ืœื™ื ื”ืืœื”, ื”ื‘ืงื‘ื•ืงื™ื ื”ื›ื—ื•ืœื™ื ื”ืืœื” ืžืฆื™ืœื™ื ื—ื™ื™ื,
ื•ื”ื ืฉื•ื•ื™ื ืžื™ืœื™ืืจื“ื™ ื“ื•ืœืจื™ื,
04:11
and they're also worth billions, sometimes billions a year.
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ืœืคืขืžื™ื ืžื™ืœื™ืืจื“ื™ื ืœืฉื ื”.
04:14
So now here's a question:
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ื•ืขื›ืฉื™ื• ืœืฉืืœื”:
04:16
if I were to ask you, for example,
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ืื ื”ื™ื™ืชื™ ืžื‘ืงืฉ ืžื›ื, ืœื“ื•ื’ืžื,
04:19
to make a one-time investment of, say, 200 million dollars
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ืœื‘ืฆืข ื”ืฉืงืขื” ื—ื“ ืคืขืžื™ืช ืฉืœ, ื ื’ื™ื“,
200 ืžื™ืœื™ื•ืŸ ื“ื•ืœืจ
04:23
to buy one of those bottles,
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ืขืœ ืžื ืช ืœืจื›ื•ืฉ ืืช ืื—ื“ ืžื”ื‘ืงื‘ื•ืงื™ื ื”ืืœื”,
04:25
so 200 million dollars up front, one time, to buy one of those bottles,
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200 ืžื™ืœื™ื•ืŸ ื“ื•ืœืจ ื‘ืชืฉืœื•ื ืžืจืืฉ, ื—ื“ ืคืขืžื™,
ืขืœ ืžื ืช ืœืจื›ื•ืฉ ืืช ืื—ื“ ืžื”ื‘ืงื‘ื•ืงื™ื ื”ืืœื”,
04:28
I won't tell you which one it is,
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ืื ื™ ืœื ืื’ื™ื“ ืœื›ื ื‘ืื™ื–ื” ื‘ืงื‘ื•ืง ืžื“ื•ื‘ืจ,
04:30
and in 10 years, I'll tell you whether you have one of the blue ones.
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ื•ื‘ืขื•ื“ 10 ืฉื ื™ื, ืื ื™ ืื’ืœื” ืœื›ื ืื ืงื ื™ืชื ืืช ืื—ื“ ื”ื‘ืงื‘ื•ืงื™ื ื”ื›ื—ื•ืœื™ื.
04:34
Does that sound like a good deal for anybody?
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ื”ืื ื–ื” ื ืฉืžืข ืœื›ื ื›ืžื• ื”ืฆืขื” ืขืกืงื™ืช ืฉืชืขื ื™ื™ืŸ ืžื™ืฉื”ื•?
04:36
No. No, right?
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ืœื. ืœื, ื ื›ื•ืŸ?
04:37
And of course, it's a very, very risky trial position,
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ืื™ืŸ ืกืคืง, ืžื“ื•ื‘ืจ ื‘ื”ืฆืขื” ืžืกื•ื›ื ืช ืžืื“,
ื•ืœื›ืŸ ืงืฉื” ืžืื“ ืœื”ืฉื™ื’ ืขื‘ื•ืจื” ืžื™ืžื•ืŸ,
04:40
and that's why it's very hard to get funding,
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ืื‘ืœ ื‘ืงึตืจื•ื‘ ื˜ื•ื‘,
04:42
but to a first approximation, that's actually the proposal.
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ื–ื• ื‘ืขืฆื ื”ื–ื“ืžื ื•ืช ื”ื”ืฉืงืขื”.
ืืชื ืฆืจื™ื›ื™ื ืœืžืžืžืŸ ืืช ืคื™ืชื•ื— ื”ืชืจื•ืคื”
04:45
You have to fund these things from the early stages on.
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ืžื”ืฉืœื‘ ื”ืžื•ืงื“ื ื•ื”ืœืื”. ื–ื” ืœื•ืงื— ื”ืจื‘ื” ื–ืžืŸ.
04:47
It takes a long time.
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04:49
So Andrew said to me, he said,
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ืื– ืื ื“ืจื• ืืžืจ ืœื™, ื”ื•ื ืืžืจ,.
04:52
"What if we stop thinking about these as drugs?
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"ืžื” ืื ื ืคืกื™ืง ืœื—ืฉื•ื‘ ืขืœื™ื”ื ื›ืชืจื•ืคื•ืช?
ืžื” ืื ื ืชื—ื™ืœ ืœื—ืฉื•ื‘ ืขืœื™ื”ื ื›ื ื›ืกื™ื ืคื™ื ื ืกื™ื™ื?"
04:55
What if we start thinking about them as financial assets?"
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04:57
They've got really weird payoff structures and all that,
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ื™ืฉ ืœื”ื ืžื‘ื ื” ื”ื—ื–ืจ ื”ื•ืŸ ืžืฉื•ื ื” ื•ื›ืœ ื–ื”,
ืื‘ืœ ื‘ื•ื ื ื ืกื” ืœื”ืฉืชืžืฉ ื‘ื›ืœ ื”ื›ืœื™ื
05:00
but let's throw everything we know about financial engineering at them.
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ืฉื™ืฉ ืœื ื• ื‘ื”ื ื“ืกืช ืžื™ืžื•ืŸ.
ื‘ื•ื ื ืจืื” ืื ืื ื—ื ื• ื™ื›ื•ืœื™ื ืœื”ืฉืชืžืฉ ื‘ื›ืœ ื”ื ื™ืกื™ื•ืŸ ื”ืžืงืฆื•ืขื™ ืฉืœื ื•
05:03
Let's see if we can use all the tricks of the trade
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ืขืœ ืžื ืช ืœืจืื•ืช ืื™ืš ืืคืฉืจ ืœื’ืจื•ื ืœืชืจื•ืคื•ืช ื”ืœืœื•
05:06
to figure out how to make these drugs work as financial assets.
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ืœื”ื™ืกื—ืจ ื›ื ื›ืกื™ื ืคื™ื ื ืกื™ื™ื?
05:10
Let's create a giant fund.
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ื‘ื•ื ื ื™ืฆื•ืจ ืงืจืŸ ืขื ืงื™ืช.
ื‘ืขื•ืœื ื”ืžื™ืžื•ืŸ, ืื ื—ื ื• ื™ื•ื“ืขื™ื ื›ื™ืฆื“ ืœื ื”ืœ
05:12
In finance, we know what to do with assets that are risky.
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ื ื›ืกื™ื ืžืกื•ื›ื ื™ื.
ืืชื” ืฉื ืื•ืชื ื™ื—ื“ ื‘ืชื™ืง ื ื›ืกื™ื
05:15
You put them in a portfolio and you try to smooth out the returns.
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ื•ืžื ืกื” ืœื™ืฉืจ ืืช ืขืงื•ืžืช ื”ื”ื—ื–ืจื™ื.
ืื– ื‘ื™ืฆืขื ื• ืืช ื›ืœ ื”ืชื—ืฉื™ื‘ื™ื, ื•ื”ืชื‘ืจืจ
05:18
So we did some math, and it turned out you could make this work,
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ืฉื ื™ืชืŸ ืœื”ืคื•ืš ืืช ื–ื” ืœืขืกืง ื›ืœื›ืœื™, ืื‘ืœ ื›ื“ื™ ืฉื–ื” ื™ื”ืคื•ืš ืœืขืกืง ื›ืœื›ืœื™,
05:21
but in order to make it work, you need about 80 to 150 drugs.
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ืฆืจื™ืš ื‘ื™ืŸ 80 ืœ- 150 ืชืจื•ืคื•ืช.
05:24
Now the good news is, there's plenty of drugs
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ื”ื—ื“ืฉื•ืช ื”ื˜ื•ื‘ื•ืช ื”ืŸ, ืฉื™ืฉ ื”ืžื•ืŸ ืชืจื•ืคื•ืช
05:26
that are waiting to be tested.
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ืฉืžื—ื›ื•ืช ืœื ื™ืกื•ื™ื™ื ื•ื‘ื“ื™ืงื•ืช.
ื ืืžืจ ืœื ื• ืฉื™ืฉ ืชื•ืจ
05:28
We've been told that there's a backlog of about 20 years of drugs
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ืฉืœ 20 ืฉื ื” ืฉืœ ืชืจื•ืคื•ืช
05:32
that are waiting to be tested but can't be funded.
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ืฉืžื—ื›ื•ืช ืฉืžื™ืฉื”ื• ื™ื‘ื“ื•ืง ืื•ืชืŸ, ืื‘ืœ ืื™ืŸ ืœื”ืŸ ืžื™ืžื•ืŸ.
05:34
In fact, that early stage of the funding process,
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ืœืžืขืฉื”, ื”ืฉืœื‘ ื”ืžื•ืงื“ื ืฉืœ ื”ืชื”ืœื™ืš,
ื›ืœ ื”ืคืื–ื” ื”ืจืืฉื•ื ื” ื•ื”ื‘ื“ื™ืงื•ืช ื‘ื‘ืขืœื™ ื”ื—ื™ื™ื,
05:37
that Phase I and preclinical stuff,
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05:39
that's actually, in the industry, called the Valley of Death
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ืžื›ื•ื ื” ื‘ืชืขืฉื™ื™ื” "ืขืžืง ื”ืžื•ื•ืช"
ื›ื™ ืœืฉื ื”ื•ืœื›ื•ืช ื”ืชืจื•ืคื•ืช ื›ื“ื™ ืœืžื•ืช.
05:42
because it's where drugs go to die.
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05:43
It's very hard to for them to get through there,
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ืงืฉื” ืžืื“ ืœืขื‘ื•ืจ ืืช ื”ืฉืœื‘ ื”ื–ื”,
ื•ื‘ืื•ืคืŸ ื˜ื‘ืขื™, ืื ืœื ืขื‘ืจืช ืืช ื”ืฉืœื‘ ื”ื–ื”, ืืชื” ืœื ื™ื›ื•ืœ ืœื”ืชืงื“ื ืœืฉืœื‘ื™ื ื”ื‘ืื™ื.
05:46
and of course, if you can't get through there,
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05:48
you can't get to the later stages.
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ืื– ื‘ื™ืฆืขื ื• ืืช ื›ืœ ื”ื—ื™ืฉื•ื‘ื™ื, ื•ืืžืจื ื•, ื‘ืกื“ืจ,
05:50
So we did this math, and we figured out, OK,
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ืืชื ืžื‘ื™ื ื™ื, ืฆืจื™ืš ื‘ื™ืŸ 80 ืœื‘ืขืจืš 150,
05:52
well, you need about 80 to, say, 150, or something like that, drugs.
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ืื• ืžืกืคืจ ื“ื•ืžื”, ืฉืœ ืชืจื•ืคื•ืช.
ื•ืื– ืขืฉื™ื ื• ืขื•ื“ ื—ื™ืฉื•ื‘ื™ื, ื•ืืžืจื ื•,
05:55
And then we did a little more math, and we said, OK,
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ื‘ืกื“ืจ, ื–ื• ืฆืจื™ื›ื” ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ืงืจืŸ ืฉืœ ื‘ืขืจืš
05:58
well, that's a fund of about three to 15 billion dollars.
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3 ืขื“ 15 ืžื™ืœื™ืืจื“ ื“ื•ืœืจ.
06:01
So we kind of created a new problem by solving the old one.
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ื›ืš ืฉื‘ืขืฆื ื™ืฆืจื ื• ื‘ืขื™ื” ื—ื“ืฉื”
ื›ืฉืคืชืจื ื• ืืช ื”ื‘ืขื™ื” ื”ื™ืฉื ื”.
06:05
We got rid of the risk, but now we need a lot of capital,
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ื”ืฆืœื—ื ื• ืœื”ื™ืคื˜ืจ ืžื”ืกื™ื›ื•ืŸ, ืื‘ืœ ืขื›ืฉื™ื• ืื ื—ื ื• ื–ืงื•ืงื™ื ืœื”ืžื•ืŸ ื”ื•ืŸ,
ื•ื™ืฉ ืจืง ืžืงื•ื ืื—ื“ ื‘ื• ื ื™ืชืŸ ืœื’ื™ื™ืก ื›ืœ ื›ืš ื”ืจื‘ื” ื”ื•ืŸ,
06:08
and you can only get that kind of capital in the capital markets.
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ืฉื•ืง ื”ื”ื•ืŸ.
06:11
Venture capitalists and philanthropies don't have it.
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ืœืงืจื ื•ืช ื”ื•ืŸ ืกื™ื›ื•ืŸ ืื™ืŸ ืกื›ื•ืžื™ื ื›ืืœื”. ืœื ื“ื‘ื ื™ื ืื™ืŸ ืกื›ื•ืžื™ื ื›ืืœื”.
ืื‘ืœ ืื ื—ื ื• ืฆืจื™ื›ื™ื ืœืžืฆื•ื ืืช ื”ื“ืจืš ืœืžืฉื•ืš ืืช ืื ืฉื™ ืฉื•ืง ื”ื”ื•ืŸ,
06:14
But we have to figure out how to get people in the capital markets,
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ืฉื‘ืื•ืคืŸ ืžืกื•ืจืชื™ ืœื ืžืฉืงื™ืขื™ื ื‘ืชื—ื•ืžื™ื ื”ืืœื”,
06:17
who traditionally don't invest in this, to want to invest in this stuff.
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ืœืจืฆื•ืช ืœื”ืฉืงื™ืข ื‘ืขืกืง ื”ื–ื”.
ื•ืฉื•ื‘, ื”ื”ื ื“ืกื” ื”ืคื™ื ื ืกื™ืช ืขื–ืจื” ืœื ื•.
06:21
So again, financial engineering was helpful here.
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ืชืืจื• ืœืขืฆืžื›ื ืฉื”ืงืจืŸ ื”ืขืฆื•ืžื” ื”ื–ื• ืชืชื—ื™ืœ ืจื™ืงื”,
06:23
Imagine the megafund starts empty,
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06:25
and what it does is it issues some debt and some equity,
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ื•ื‘ืฉืœื‘ ื”ืจืืฉื•ืŸ ื”ื™ื ืžื ืคื™ืงื” ืงืฆืช ื—ื•ื‘
ื•ืงืฆืช ื”ื•ืŸ ื‘ืขืœื™ื,
06:29
and that generates cash flow.
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ื•ื›ืš ืžืชื—ื™ืœื™ื ืœื™ืฆื•ืจ ืชื–ืจื™ื ืžื–ื•ืžื ื™ื.
06:30
That cash flow is used, then, to buy that big portfolio of drugs that you need,
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ื‘ืชื–ืจื™ื ื”ืžื–ื•ืžื ื™ื ืžืฉืชืžืฉื™ื, ื‘ื”ืžืฉืš, ืขืœ ืžื ืช ืœืจื›ื•ืฉ
ืืช ื”ื–ื›ื•ื™ื•ืช ื‘ืžื’ื•ื•ืŸ ื”ืชืจื•ืคื•ืช ื”ื“ืจื•ืฉ ืœืงืจืŸ,
06:34
and those drugs start working their way through that approval process,
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ื•ื”ืชืจื•ืคื•ืช ืžืชื—ื™ืœื•ืช ืœื”ืชืงื“ื
ื‘ืชื”ืœื™ืš ื”ืื™ืฉื•ืจ ืฉืœื”ืŸ,
ื•ื‘ื›ืœ ืคืขื ืฉื”ืŸ ืขื•ื‘ืจื•ืช ืœืฉืœื‘ ื”ืื™ืฉื•ืจ ื”ื‘ื,
06:38
and each time they go through a phase of approval,
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ื”ืŸ ืขื•ืœื•ืช ื‘ืขืจื›ืŸ.
ืจื•ื‘ ื”ืชืจื•ืคื•ืช ืœื ืžืฆืœื™ื—ื•ืช ืœืงื‘ืœ ืื™ืฉื•ืจ,
06:40
they gain value.
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06:41
Most of them don't make it, but a few of them do,
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ืื‘ืœ ื—ืœืง ืžืฆืœื™ื—,
ื•ืื—ืจื™ ืฉืชืจื•ืคื•ืช ืžื•ืกื™ืคื•ืช ืขืจืš, ื ื™ืชืŸ ืœืžื›ื•ืจ ื—ืœืง ืžื”ืŸ,
06:44
and with the ones that gain value, you can sell some,
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ื•ื‘ืืžืฆืขื•ืช ื”ืžื›ื™ืจื” ืฉืœื”ืŸ,
06:46
and when you sell them,
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ืœื”ื›ื ื™ืก ื›ืกืฃ ืฉื™ืฉืœื ืืช ื”ืจื™ื‘ื™ืช ืขืœ ืื’ืจื•ืช ื”ื—ื•ื‘,
06:47
you have money to pay the interest on those bonds,
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ื•ื™ืกืคื™ืง ื’ื ื›ื“ื™ ืœืžืžืŸ ืืช ืกื‘ื‘ ื”ื ื™ืกื•ื™ื™ื ื”ื‘ื.
06:50
but also to fund the next round of trials.
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ื–ื” ื›ืžืขื˜ ืžืžืžืŸ ืืช ืขืฆืžื•.
06:52
It's almost self-funding.
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ืืชื” ื—ื•ื–ืจ ืขืœ ื”ืชื”ืœื™ืš ืœืžืฉืš ื—ื™ื™ ื”ืงืจืŸ,
06:53
You do that for the course of the transaction,
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06:55
and when you're done, you liquidate the portfolio,
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ื•ื‘ืกื™ื•ื ื”ืชืงื•ืคื”, ืืชื” ืžื•ื›ืจ ืืช ื”ื–ื›ื•ื™ื•ืช ื‘ืชืจื•ืคื•ืช,
ืžืฉืœื ืืช ืื’ืจื•ืช ื”ื—ื•ื‘, ื•ื™ื›ื•ืœ ืœืกืคืง
06:58
pay back the bonds, and you can give the equity holders a nice return.
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ืœืžืฉืงื™ืขื™ื ื•ืœื‘ืขืœื™ื ื”ื—ื–ืจ ื ืื” ืขืœ ื”ืฉืงืขืชื.
ื–ื• ื”ื™ื™ืชื” ื”ืชืื•ืจื™ื” ื”ืคื™ื ื ืกื™ืช, ื•ื“ื ื• ื‘ื”
07:01
That was the theory, and we talked about it,
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ื‘ืžืฉืš ื–ืžืŸ ืžื”, ื”ืจืฆื ื• ืžืกืคืจ ื ื™ืกื•ื™ื™ื,
07:03
we did a bunch of experiments,
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ื•ืื– ืืžืจื ื•, ื‘ื•ืื• ื ื ืกื” ืœื‘ื—ื•ืŸ ืืช ื”ืชืื•ืจื™ื” ื‘ืืžืช.
07:05
and then we said, let's really try to test it.
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07:07
We spent the next two years doing research.
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ื‘ืžืฉืš ื”ืฉื ืชื™ื™ื ื”ื‘ืื•ืช ืขืกืงื ื• ื‘ืžื—ืงืจ.
07:10
We talked to hundreds of experts in drug financing and venture capital.
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ื“ื™ื‘ืจื ื• ืขื ืžืื•ืช ืžื•ืžื—ื™ื ืœืžื™ืžื•ืŸ ืชืจื•ืคื•ืช
ื•ืขื ืงืจื ื•ืช ื”ื•ืŸ ืกื™ื›ื•ืŸ.
07:15
We talked to people who have developed drugs.
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ื“ื™ื‘ืจื ื• ืขื ืื ืฉื™ื ืžื ื•ืกื™ื ื‘ืคื™ืชื•ื— ืชืจื•ืคื•ืช.
07:17
We talked to pharmaceutical companies.
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ื“ื™ื‘ืจื ื• ืขื ื—ื‘ืจื•ืช ื”ืชืจื•ืคื•ืช.
07:19
We actually looked at the data for drugs,
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ืขื‘ืจื ื• ืขืœ ืžื™ื“ืข ืืžื™ืชื™ ืฉืœ ืชืจื•ืคื•ืช,
07:22
over 2,000 drugs that had been approved or denied or withdrawn,
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ื™ื•ืชืจ ืž- 2,000 ืชืจื•ืคื•ืช ืฉืื•ืฉืจื• ืื• ืœื ืื•ืฉืจื•
ืื• ื ืžืฉื›ื• ืžื”ืฉื•ืง,
07:26
and we also ran millions of simulations.
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ื”ืจืฆื ื• ื’ื ืžื™ืœื™ื•ื ื™ ืกื™ืžื•ืœืฆื™ื•ืช ืžืžื•ื—ืฉื‘ื•ืช.
ื•ื›ืœ ื–ื” ืœืงื— ื”ืžื•ืŸ ื–ืžืŸ.
07:30
And all that actually took a lot of time.
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07:32
But when we were done, we found something that was sort of surprising.
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ืื‘ืœ ื›ืฉืกื™ื™ืžื ื•, ื’ื™ืœื™ื ื• ืžืฉื”ื• ืฉื”ื™ื” ืงืฆืช ืžืคืชื™ืข.
ื’ื™ืœื™ื ื• ืฉื‘ืืžืช ืืคืฉืจ ืœื‘ื ื•ืช ืงืจืŸ ื”ืฉืงืขื•ืช
07:36
It was feasible to structure that fund
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07:37
such that when you were done structuring it,
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ืฉื‘ืชื•ื ื”ืงืžืชื”,
ืชืืคืฉืจ ืœืžื›ื•ืจ ืื’ืจื•ืช ื—ื•ื‘ ื‘ืกื™ื›ื•ืŸ ื ืžื•ืš
07:40
you could actually produce low-risk bonds that would be attractive to bond holders,
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ืฉื™ื”ื™ื• ืื˜ืจืงื˜ื™ื‘ื™ื•ืช ืœืžื—ื–ื™ืงื™ ืื’ืจื•ืช ื—ื•ื‘,
ื•ื™ื™ืชื ื• ื”ื—ื–ืจ ืฉื ืชื™ ืฉืœ ื‘ื™ืŸ 5 ืœ- 8 ืื—ื•ื–,
07:44
that would give you yields of about five to eight percent,
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07:46
and you could produce equity
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ื•ืฉื ื™ืชืŸ ืœื”ื ืคื™ืง ื”ื•ืŸ ืžื ื™ื•ืช
ืฉื™ืกืคืง ืœืžืฉืงื™ืขื™ื ื”ื—ื–ืจ ืฉื ืชื™ ืฉืœ ื›- 12%.
07:48
that would give equity holders about a 12 percent return.
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ืžื“ื•ื‘ืจ ื‘ื”ื—ื–ืจื™ื ืฉืื™ื ื ืื˜ืจืงื˜ื™ื‘ื™ื™ื ืžืกืคื™ืง
07:51
Now those returns aren't going to be attractive to a venture capitalist.
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ืœืžืฉืงื™ืขื™ ื”ื•ืŸ ืกื™ื›ื•ืŸ.
ืžืฉืงื™ืขื™ ื”ื•ืŸ ืกื™ื›ื•ืŸ ืžืขื“ื™ืคื™ื ืœื‘ืฆืข ื”ื™ืžื•ืจื™ื ื’ื“ื•ืœื™ื ื™ื•ืชืจ
07:54
They want to make those big bets
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07:55
and get those billion dollar payoffs.
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ื•ืœื–ื›ื•ืช ื‘ื”ื—ื–ืจื™ื ื‘ื’ื•ื‘ื” ืžื™ืœื™ืืจื“ื™ ื“ื•ืœืจื™ื.
07:57
But it turns out there are lots of other folks that would be interested.
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ืื‘ืœ ืžืฆื“ ืฉื ื™, ื™ืฉื ื ื”ืžื•ืŸ ืžืฉืงื™ืขื™ื ืื—ืจื™ื ืฉื™ืชืขื ื™ื™ื ื• ื‘ื”ืฉืงืขื•ืช ื›ืืœื”.
ืจืžื•ืช ื”ืกื™ื›ื•ืŸ ื•ื”ื”ื—ื–ืจ ืžืชืื™ืžื•ืช ื‘ื“ื™ื•ืง
08:01
That's right in the investment sweet spot of pension funds and 401(k) plans
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ืœืžื” ืฉืžื—ืคืฉื•ืช ืงืจื ื•ืช ืคื ืกื™ื” ื•ื—ืกื›ื•ื ื•ืช ืคื ืกื™ื•ื ื™ื™ื
ื•ื›ืœ ื”ืฉื•ืง ื”ืคื ืกื™ื•ื ื™.
08:05
and all this other stuff.
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08:06
So we published some articles in the academic press,
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ืื– ืคืจืกืžื ื• ืžืกืคืจ ืžืืžืจื™ื ื‘ืขื™ืชื•ื ื•ืช ื”ืžื“ืขื™ืช.
ืคืจืกืžื ื• ืžืืžืจื™ื ื‘ืขื™ืชื•ื ื•ืช ื”ืจืคื•ืื™ืช.
08:09
in medical journals, in finance journals.
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ืคืจืกืžื ื• ืžืืžืจื™ื ื‘ืขื™ืชื•ื ื•ืช ื”ื›ืœื›ืœื™ืช.
ืื‘ืœ ืขื“ ืฉืœื ื”ืชื—ืœื ื•
08:14
But it wasn't until we actually got the popular press interested in this
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ืœื“ื‘ืจ ืขื ื”ืขื™ืชื•ื ื•ืช ื”ื›ืœืœื™ืช
ืœื ืงื™ื‘ืœื ื• ืชืฉื•ืžืช ืœื‘ ืžืกืคื™ืงื”.
08:17
that we began to get some traction.
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ืื‘ืœ ืจืฆื™ื ื• ืœื”ื’ื™ืข ืœืžืฆื‘ ืฉื‘ื• ืื ืฉื™ื ืœื ืจืง ื™ืฉืžืขื• ืขืœื™ื ื•.
08:20
We wanted to do more than just make people aware of it.
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08:22
We wanted people to get involved.
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ืจืฆื™ื ื• ืฉืื ืฉื™ื ื™ื’ืœื• ืžืขื•ืจื‘ื•ืช.
ื•ืœื›ืŸ ืœืงื—ื ื• ืืช ื›ืœ ื”ืชื›ื ื•ืช ื•ื”ืืœื’ื•ืจื™ืชืžื™ื ืฉืคื™ืชื—ื ื•
08:24
So we took all of our computer code and made that available online
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ื•ืคืจืกืžื ื• ืื•ืชื ื‘ืจืฉืช ื”ืื™ื ืจื˜ื ื˜
08:27
under an open-source license to anybody that wanted it.
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ื‘ืจื™ืฉื™ื•ืŸ ืงื•ื“ ืคืชื•ื—
ืœื›ืœ ืžื™ ืฉื™ืจืฆื” ืœื”ืฉืชืžืฉ ื‘ื”ื.
08:30
And you guys can download it today
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ื•ื›ื•ืœื›ื ื™ื›ื•ืœื™ื ืœื”ื•ืจื™ื“ ืืช ื”ืชื›ื ื” ื”ื™ื•ื
08:32
if you want to run your own experiments to see if this would work.
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ืื ืืชื ืจื•ืฆื™ื ืœื‘ื“ื•ืง ืืช ื”ืžืกืคืจื™ื ื•ืœืจืื•ืช ืื ื”ื ื”ื’ื™ื•ื ื™ื™ื.
ื•ื”ืฆืขื“ ื”ื–ื” ื”ืชื’ืœื” ื›ื™ืขื™ืœ ืžืื“, ื›ื™ ืื ืฉื™ ื”ื”ื•ืŸ
08:35
And that was really effective,
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ืฉืœื ื”ืืžื™ื ื• ืœื”ื ื—ื•ืช ื”ื™ืกื•ื“ ืฉืœื ื•
08:36
because people that didn't believe our assumptions
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ื™ื›ืœื• ืœื‘ื“ื•ืง ืืช ื”ื ื—ื•ืช ื”ื™ืกื•ื“ ืฉืœื”ื ื•ืœืจืื•ืช ืœืื™ืœื• ืชื•ืฆืื•ืช ื”ื ืžื•ื‘ื™ืœื•ืช.
08:39
could try their own and see how it would work.
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ื•ืขื“ื™ื™ืŸ ื™ืฉ ืœืคื ื™ื ื• ื‘ืขื™ื” ื‘ืกื™ืกื™ืช, ืฉื”ื™ื,
08:41
Now there's an obvious problem, which is,
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ื”ืื ื™ืฉ ืžืกืคื™ืง ื›ืกืฃ ื‘ืขื•ืœื ืขืœ ืžื ืช ืœืžืžืŸ ืืช ื›ืœ ื”ืชื›ื ื™ื•ืช?
08:43
is there enough money in the world to fund this?
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ืกื™ืคืจืชื™ ืœื›ื ืฉื™ืฉ ืžืกืคื™ืง ืชืจื•ืคื•ืช,
08:45
I've told you there's enough drugs, but is there enough money?
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ืื‘ืœ ื”ืื ื™ืฉ ืžืกืคื™ืง ื›ืกืฃ?
08:48
There's 100 trillion dollars of capital
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ื™ืฉ ื›ื™ื•ื 100 ื˜ืจื™ืœื™ื•ืŸ ื“ื•ืœืจ ืฉืœ ื”ื•ืŸ
08:50
currently invested in fixed-income securities.
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ื”ืžื•ืฉืงืขื™ื ื‘ืืคื™ืงื™ื ื”ืžืฉืœืžื™ื ืชืฉืœื•ืžื™ื ืงื‘ื•ืขื™ื (ื›ืžื• ืื’ืจื•ืช ื—ื•ื‘ ื•ื“ื™ื‘ื™ื“ื ื“ื™ื).
08:54
That's a hundred thousand billion.
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ื–ื” ืžืื” ืืœืฃ ืžื™ืœื™ืืจื“ ื“ื•ืœืจ.
08:58
There's plenty of money.
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ื™ืฉ ื”ืžื•ืŸ ื›ืกืฃ.
08:59
(Laughter)
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(ืฆื—ื•ืง)
ืื‘ืœ ืื ื—ื ื• ื”ื‘ื ื• ืฉืื ื—ื ื• ื–ืงื•ืงื™ื ืœื™ื•ืชืจ ืžืจืง ื›ืกืฃ.
09:04
But we realized it's more than just money that's required.
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09:06
We had to get people motivated, involved,
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ื”ื™ื™ื ื• ื—ื™ื™ื‘ื™ื ืœื”ื—ื“ื™ืจ ื‘ืื ืฉื™ื ืžื•ื˜ื™ื‘ืฆื™ื”, ืœื’ืจื•ื ืœื”ื ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ืžืขื•ืจื‘ื™ื,
09:08
and get them to understand this.
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ื•ืื ืฉื™ื ื—ื™ื™ื‘ื™ื ืœื”ื‘ื™ืŸ ืืช ื”ืชื›ื ื™ืช.
09:10
And we started thinking about all the different things that could go wrong.
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ื•ืื– ื”ืชื—ืœื ื• ืœื—ืฉื•ื‘ ืขืœ ื”ื“ื‘ืจื™ื ืฉื™ื›ื•ืœื™ื ืœื”ืฉืชื‘ืฉ ื‘ื“ืจืš.
ืžื”ื ื”ืืชื’ืจื™ื ื‘ื“ืจืš ืฉื™ื›ื•ืœื™ื ืœื”ืคืจื™ืข ืœืžื™ืžื•ืฉ ื”ื—ื–ื•ืŸ?
09:14
What are all the challenges that might get in the way?
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ื”ื™ื™ืชื” ืœื ื• ืจืฉื™ืžืช ื‘ืขื™ื•ืช ืืจื•ื›ื”, ื•ืžื” ืฉืขืฉื™ื ื• ื”ื™ื”
09:17
And we had a long list.
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09:18
We assigned a bunch of people, including ourselves,
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ืœืชืช ืœืžืกืคืจ ืื ืฉื™ื, ื›ื•ืœืœ ืื•ืชื ื•,
09:21
different pieces of this problem.
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ื—ืœืงื™ื ืฉื•ื ื™ื ืฉืœ ื”ื‘ืขื™ื”,
09:23
And we said, could you start a work stream on credit risk?
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ืฉืืœื ื• ืžื•ืžื—ื™ื, ื”ืื ืชื•ื›ืœื• ืœื‘ื“ื•ืง ืืช ื‘ืขื™ื™ืช ืกื™ื›ื•ื ื™ ื”ืืฉืจืื™?
09:26
Could you start a work stream on the regulatory aspects?
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ื”ืื ืชื•ื›ืœื• ืœื‘ื“ื•ืง ืืช ื”ืฆื“ื“ื™ื ื”ืจื’ื•ืœื˜ื•ืจื™ื™ื ืฉืœ ื”ืชื›ื ื™ืช?
ื”ืื ืชื•ื›ืœื• ืœื‘ื“ื•ืง
09:29
Could you start a work stream on how you would manage so many projects?
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ื“ืจื›ื™ื ืœื ื™ื”ื•ืœ ืžืกืคืจ ื›ื” ื’ื“ื•ืœ ืฉืœ ืคืจื•ื™ืงื˜ื™ื?
ื•ื”ืคื’ืฉื ื• ืžื•ืžื—ื™ื
09:33
And we had all these experts get together and do these different work streams,
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ืฉื ื™ืชื—ื• ืืช ื”ื‘ืขื™ื•ืช ื”ืฉื•ื ื•ืช,
ื•ืื– ืขืจื›ื ื• ื•ืขื™ื“ื”.
09:37
and then we held a conference.
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ื”ื•ืขื™ื“ื” ื”ืชืงื™ื™ืžื” ื‘ืงื™ืฅ, ื‘ืงื™ืฅ ื”ืื—ืจื•ืŸ.
09:39
The conference was held over this past summer.
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ื–ื• ื”ื™ื” ื›ื ืก ืœืžื•ื–ืžื ื™ื ื‘ืœื‘ื“.
09:41
It was an invitation-only conference.
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ื”ื›ื ืก ืžื•ืžืŸ ืข"ื™ ื”ืื™ื’ื•ื“ ื”ืืžืจื™ืงื ื™ ืœืกืจื˜ืŸ
09:43
It was sponsored by the American Cancer Society
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ื•ื”ื•ื ื ืขืจืš ื‘ืฉื™ืชื•ืฃ ืคืขื•ืœื”
09:45
and done in collaboration with the National Cancer Institute.
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ืขื ื”ืžื›ื•ืŸ ื”ืœืื•ืžื™ ืœื—ืงืจ ื”ืกืจื˜ืŸ.
09:48
We had experts from every field we thought would be important,
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ื•ื”ื’ื™ืขื• ืžื•ืžื—ื™ื ืžื›ืœ ืชื—ื•ื ืฉื—ืฉื‘ื ื• ืฉืขืฉื•ื™ ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ืจืœื•ื•ื ื˜ื™,
09:51
including the government, and people that run research centers,
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ื›ื•ืœืœ ืื ืฉื™ ืžืžืฉืœ, ื›ื•ืœืœ
ืื ืฉื™ื ืฉืžื ื”ืœื™ื ืžื›ื•ื ื™ ืžื—ืงืจ ื•ื›ื•',
09:54
and for two days they heard the reports
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ื•ื‘ืžืฉืš ื™ื•ืžื™ื™ื ื”ื ื™ืฉื‘ื• ื•ืฉืžืขื• ื“ื™ื•ื•ื—ื™ื
ืžื—ืžืฉืช ืฆื•ื•ืชื™ ื”ืขื‘ื•ื“ื” ืฉืœื ื•, ื•ื ืขืจื›ื• ื“ื™ื•ื ื™ื ื‘ื ื•ืฉื.
09:57
from those five work streams, and talked about it.
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ื–ื• ื”ื™ื™ืชื” ื”ืคืขื ื”ืจืืฉื•ื ื”
09:59
It was the first time the people who could make this happen
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ืฉื”ืื ืฉื™ื ืฉื™ื›ืœื• ืœื’ืจื•ื ืœื—ืœื•ื ืœื”ืชืžืžืฉ
ื™ืฉื‘ื• ื™ื—ื“ ืกื‘ื™ื‘ ืื•ืชื• ืฉื•ืœื—ืŸ
10:02
sat across the table from each other and had these conversations.
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ื•ื“ื™ื‘ืจื• ืขืœ ื”ืชื›ื ื™ืช ืฉืœื ื•.
10:05
Now these conferences, it's typical to have a dinner,
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ื‘ื›ื ืกื™ื ื›ืืœื”, ืžืงื•ื‘ืœ ืœืื›ื•ืœ ืืจื•ื—ืช ืขืจื‘,
10:09
and at that dinner, you get to know each other,
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ื•ื‘ื–ืžืŸ ืืจื•ื—ืช ื”ืขืจื‘,
ืื ืฉื™ื ืžื›ื™ืจื™ื ื–ื” ืืช ื–ื”,
10:12
sort of like what we're doing here.
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ืžืžืฉ ื›ืžื• ืฉืขื•ืฉื™ื ื›ืืŸ ื‘- TED.
10:13
I happened to look out the window,
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ืคืขื ืื—ืช ื”ื‘ื˜ืชื™ ืžื”ื—ืœื•ืŸ,
10:15
and hand on my heart,
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ื•ืื ื™ ื ืฉื‘ืข, ื”ื‘ื˜ืชื™ ืžื”ื—ืœื•ืŸ
10:16
on the night of this conference -- it was the summertime --
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ื‘ืœื™ืœ ื”ื›ื ืก ืฉืœื ื• -- ื–ื” ื”ื™ื” ื‘ืงื™ืฅ --
ื•ื–ื” ืžื” ืฉืจืื™ืชื™, ืงืฉืช ื›ืคื•ืœื”.
10:19
and that's what I saw, a double rainbow.
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ืื ื™ ื‘ื•ื—ืจ ืœื—ืฉื•ื‘ ืฉืžื“ื•ื‘ืจ ื‘ืื•ืช ืœืžื–ืœ ื˜ื•ื‘.
10:22
So I'd like to think it was a good sign.
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10:24
Since the conference, we've got people working between Paris and San Francisco,
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ืžืื– ื”ื›ื ืก, ื”ืชื—ืœื ื• ืœืขื‘ื•ื“
ื‘ื™ืŸ ืคืจื™ืก ืœืกืŸ-ืคืจื ืกื™ืกืงื•,
10:28
lots of different folks working on this
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ื”ืจื‘ื” ืื ืฉื™ื ืขื•ื‘ื“ื™ื ืขืœ ื”ืคืจื•ื™ืงื˜
ืขืœ ืžื ืช ืœืจืื•ืช ืื™ืš ืœืืคืฉืจ ืœื• ืœื”ืฆืœื™ื—.
10:30
to try to see if we can really make it happen.
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10:32
We're not looking to start a fund, but we want somebody else to do this.
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ืื ื—ื ื• ืœื ืจื•ืฆื™ื ืœื’ื™ื™ืก ืงืจืŸ ื”ืฉืงืขื•ืช ื‘ืขืฆืžื ื•,
ืืœื ืจื•ืฆื™ื ืฉืžื™ืฉื”ื• ืื—ืจ ื™ืงื™ื ืืช ื”ืงืจืŸ.
ื‘ื’ืœืœ, ื›ืžื• ืฉืืžืจืชื™, ืฉืื ื™ ืœื ืžื“ืขืŸ,
10:36
Because, again, I'm not a scientist.
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10:38
I can't build a drug.
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ืื ื™ ืœื ื™ื›ื•ืœ ืœืคืชื— ืชืจื•ืคื”.
10:40
I'm never going to have enough money to fund even one of those trials.
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ืืฃ ืคืขื ืœื ื™ื”ื™ื” ืœื™ ืžืกืคื™ืง ื›ืกืฃ
ืขืœ ืžื ืช ืœืžืžืžืŸ ืืคื™ืœื• ืื—ื“ ืžื”ื ื™ืกื•ื™ื™ื.
10:44
But all of us together, with our 401(k)s,
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ืื‘ืœ ื›ื•ืœื ื• ื‘ื™ื—ื“, ืขื ื”ื—ืกื›ื•ื ื•ืช ื”ืคื ืกื™ื•ื ื™ื™ื ืฉืœื ื•,
10:47
with our 529 plans, with our pension plans,
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ืขื ืชื›ื ื™ื•ืช ื”ืคื ืกื™ื”, ื•ืขื ืงืจื ื•ืช ื”ืคื ืกื™ื”,
10:49
all of us together can actually fund hundreds of trials
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ื›ื•ืœื ื• ื™ื—ื“ ื™ื›ื•ืœื™ื ืœืžืžืžืŸ ืžืื•ืช ื ื™ืกื•ื™ื™ื ืงืœื™ื ื™ื™ื
10:52
and get paid well for doing it
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ื•ืœืงื‘ืœ ื”ื—ื–ืจ ื ืื” ืขื‘ื•ืจ ื”ื”ืฉืงืขื”
10:54
and save millions of lives like my dad.
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ื•ืœื”ืฆื™ืœ ืžื™ืœื™ื•ื ื™ ืื ืฉื™ื ื›ืžื• ืื‘ื™.
ืชื•ื“ื” ืœื›ื.
10:57
Thank you.
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10:58
(Applause)
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(ืžื—ื™ืื•ืช ื›ืคื™ื™ื)
ืขืœ ืืชืจ ื–ื”

ืืชืจ ื–ื” ื™ืฆื™ื’ ื‘ืคื ื™ื›ื ืกืจื˜ื•ื ื™ YouTube ื”ืžื•ืขื™ืœื™ื ืœืœื™ืžื•ื“ ืื ื’ืœื™ืช. ืชื•ื›ืœื• ืœืจืื•ืช ืฉื™ืขื•ืจื™ ืื ื’ืœื™ืช ื”ืžื•ืขื‘ืจื™ื ืขืœ ื™ื“ื™ ืžื•ืจื™ื ืžื”ืฉื•ืจื” ื”ืจืืฉื•ื ื” ืžืจื—ื‘ื™ ื”ืขื•ืœื. ืœื—ืฅ ืคืขืžื™ื™ื ืขืœ ื”ื›ืชื•ื‘ื™ื•ืช ื‘ืื ื’ืœื™ืช ื”ืžื•ืฆื’ื•ืช ื‘ื›ืœ ื“ืฃ ื•ื™ื“ืื• ื›ื“ื™ ืœื”ืคืขื™ืœ ืืช ื”ืกืจื˜ื•ืŸ ืžืฉื. ื”ื›ืชื•ื‘ื™ื•ืช ื’ื•ืœืœื•ืช ื‘ืกื ื›ืจื•ืŸ ืขื ื”ืคืขืœืช ื”ื•ื•ื™ื“ืื•. ืื ื™ืฉ ืœืš ื”ืขืจื•ืช ืื• ื‘ืงืฉื•ืช, ืื ื ืฆื•ืจ ืื™ืชื ื• ืงืฉืจ ื‘ืืžืฆืขื•ืช ื˜ื•ืคืก ื™ืฆื™ืจืช ืงืฉืจ ื–ื”.

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