Roger Stein: A bold new way to fund drug research

47,806 views ใƒป 2014-01-07

TED


์•„๋ž˜ ์˜๋ฌธ์ž๋ง‰์„ ๋”๋ธ”ํด๋ฆญํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์˜์ƒ์ด ์žฌ์ƒ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฒˆ์—ญ: Yeomin Kwon ๊ฒ€ํ† : K Bang
00:12
So this is a picture of my dad and me, at the beach in Far Rockaway,
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์ €์™€ ์•„๋ฒ„์ง€์˜ ์‚ฌ์ง„์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
ํŒŒ๋ฝ์–ด์›จ์ด ํ•ด๋ณ€์—์„œ ์ฐ์€๊ฑฐ์ฃ 
00:19
or actually Rockaway Park.
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์‚ฌ์‹ค์€ ๋ฝ์–ด์›จ์ด ๊ณต์›์ด์—์š”.
00:20
I'm the one with the blond hair.
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์ €๊ธฐ ๊ธˆ๋ฐœ์ด ์ ‘๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
์ €ํฌ ์•„๋ฒ„์ง€๋Š” ๋‹ด๋ฐฐ๋ฅผ ํ”ผ์šฐ์…จ์–ด์š”.
00:23
My dad's the guy with the cigarette.
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60๋…„๋Œ€์˜€์œผ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ ๋งŽ์€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ๋‹ด๋ฐฐ๋ฅผ ํ”ผ์› ์ฃ .
00:25
It was the 60's.
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00:26
A lot of people smoked back then.
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2009๋…„ ์—ฌ๋ฆ„์—
00:28
In the summer of 2009, my dad was diagnosed with lung cancer.
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์ €ํฌ ์•„๋ฒ„์ง€๋Š” ํ์•”์„ ์ง„๋‹จ๋ฐ›์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
์‚ฌ์‹ค ์•”์€ ๋ชจ๋“  ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์—๊ฒŒ ๋‹ฟ์•„์žˆ์ฃ .
00:34
Cancer is one of those things that actually touches everybody.
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๋งŒ์•ฝ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์ด ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์— ์žˆ๋Š” ๋‚จ์„ฑ์ด๋ผ๋ฉด
00:38
If you're a man in the US,
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00:40
you've got about a one in two chance
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์ผ์ƒ๋™์•ˆ 1/2 ํ™•๋ฅ ๋กœ ์•” ์ง„๋‹จ์„ ๋ฐ›์„ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:42
of being diagnosed with cancer during your lifetime.
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00:45
If you're a woman, you've got about a one in three chance
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๋งŒ์•ฝ ์—ฌ์„ฑ์ด๋ผ๋ฉด ์•ฝ 3๋ถ„์˜ 1 ์ •๋„์˜ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์ด ์žˆ์ฃ .
00:48
of being diagnosed with cancer.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ ๋ชจ๋‘๋Š” ์•”์„ ์ง„๋‹จ ๋ฐ›์€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ ํ•œ ๋ช… ์ •๋„๋Š” ์•Œ๊ณ  ์žˆ์ฃ .
00:51
Everybody knows somebody who's been diagnosed with cancer.
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00:55
Now, my dad's doing better today,
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์ด์ œ ์ €ํฌ ์•„๋ฒ„์ง€๋Š” ๋งŽ์ด ํšŒ๋ณต๋˜์…จ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:56
and part of the reason for that is that he was able to participate in the trial
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๊ทธ๋Ÿด ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์—ˆ๋˜ ์ด์œ  ์ค‘ ํ•˜๋‚˜๋Š”
์•„๋ฒ„์ง€๊ฐ€ ๊ฑธ๋ฆฐ ํŠน์ •ํ•œ ์•”์— ํฐ ํšจ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ๊ฐ€์ง„
01:02
of an experimental new drug that happened to be specially formulated
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์‹ ์•ฝ์˜ ์ž„์ƒ ์‹คํ—˜์— ์ฐธ๊ฐ€ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์—ˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:05
and very good for his particular kind of cancer.
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01:07
There are over 200 kinds of cancer.
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200 ์ข…๋ฅ˜๊ฐ€ ๋„˜๋Š” ์•”์ด ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:10
And what I want to talk about today
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์ €๋Š” ์˜ค๋Š˜ ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ ์•„๋ฒ„์ง€ ๊ฐ™์€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์„
01:12
is how we can help more people like my dad,
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๋” ๋„์šธ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š”์ง€ ์–˜๊ธฐํ•˜๊ณ ์ž ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:15
because we have to change the way we think about raising money
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์™œ๋ƒํ•˜๋ฉด ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์•” ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์—
ํˆฌ์žํ•  ์žฌ์›์„ ํ™•๋ณดํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ƒ๊ฐ์„ ๋ฐ”๊ฟ”์•ผํ•˜๋‹ˆ๊นŒ์š”
01:18
to fund cancer research.
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01:21
So a while after my dad was diagnosed,
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์ €ํฌ ์•„๋ฒ„์ง€๊ฐ€ ์•” ์ง„๋‹จ์„ ๋ฐ›๊ณ  ์–ผ๋งˆ ํ›„์—
01:23
I was having coffee with my friend Andrew Lo.
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์ €๋Š” ์นœ๊ตฌ์ธ ์•ค๋“œ๋ฅ˜ ๋กœ์™€ ์ปคํ”ผ๋ฅผ ๋งˆ์‹œ๊ณ  ์žˆ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:26
He's the head of the Laboratory for Financial Engineering at MIT,
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์—”๋“œ๋ฅ˜๋Š” ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์ผํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š”
01:29
where I also have a position,
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MIT ๊ธˆ์œต๊ณตํ•™ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์†Œ์˜ ์†Œ์žฅ์ธ๋ฐ์š”.
01:31
and we were talking about cancer.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์•”์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ์–˜๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:33
And Andrew had been doing his own bits of research,
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์•ค๋“œ๋ฅ˜๊ฐ€ ํ˜ผ์ž ์•Œ์•„๋ณธ ๋ฐ”์— ์˜ํ•˜๋ฉด
01:35
and one of the things that he had been told
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ฃผ๋ณ€์—์„œ ๋“ฃ๊ธฐ๋„ ํ•˜๊ณ 
01:37
and that he'd learned from studying the literature
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์ž๋ฃŒ๋„ ๊ณต๋ถ€ํ•˜๋‹ค ๋ณด๋‹ˆ
01:42
was that there's actually a big bottleneck.
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์‹ ์•ฝ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ์— ์ปค๋‹ค๋ž€ ์žฅ์• ๋ฌผ์ด ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ๊นจ๋‹ฌ์•˜๋‹ต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:44
It's very difficult to develop new drugs,
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์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ์•ฝ์„ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœํ•˜๊ธฐ๋Š” ๋งค์šฐ ์–ด๋ ค์›Œ์š”.
01:46
and the reason it's difficult to develop new drugs
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์‹ ์•ฝ์„ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœํ•˜๊ธฐ ํž˜๋“  ์ด์œ ๋Š”
01:48
is because in the early stages of drug development,
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์‹ ์•ฝ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ์˜ ์ดˆ๊ธฐ ๋‹จ๊ณ„์—์„œ
01:51
the drugs are very risky, and they're very expensive.
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์‹ ์•ฝ์€ ์œ„ํ—˜ํ•˜๊ณ 
๋งค์šฐ ๋น„์‹ธ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ด์—์š”.
01:53
So Andrew asked me if I'd want to maybe work with him a bit,
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์—”๋“œ๋ฅ˜๊ฐ€ ์ œ๊ฒŒ
๊ฐ™์ด ์ผํ•ด๋ณด์ž๊ณ  ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:56
work on some of the math and the analytics
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์ˆ˜ํ•™๊ณผ ๋ถ„์„ ์ธก๋ฉด์—์„œ ์ผํ•ด๋‹ฌ๋ผ๊ณ  ํ–ˆ์ฃ .
01:58
and see if we could figure out something we could do.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์„ ๋งŒํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์„ ์ฐพ์•„ ๋ณด์ž๊ณ  ํ–ˆ์–ด์š”.
02:02
Now I'm not a scientist.
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์ „ ๊ณผํ•™์ž๊ฐ€ ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:03
You know, I don't know how to build a drug.
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ, ์ €๋Š” ์•ฝ์„ ๋งŒ๋“ค ์ค„์€ ๋ชจ๋ฅด๊ฑฐ๋“ ์š”.
02:05
And none of my coauthors, Andrew Lo or Jose-Maria Fernandez or David Fagnan --
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ œ ๋™๋ฃŒ๋“ค - ์—”๋“œ๋ฅ˜ ๋กœ,
ํ˜ธ์„ธ ๋งˆ๋ฆฌ์•„ ํŽ˜๋ฅด๋‚œ๋ฐ์ฆˆ,
02:10
none of those guys are scientists either.
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๋ฐ์ด๋น— ํŒจ๊ทธ๋‚œ - ์ด ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค๋„ ๋ชจ๋‘ ๊ณผํ•™์ž๊ฐ€ ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:13
We don't know the first thing about how to make a cancer drug.
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์•” ์น˜๋ฃŒ์ œ๋ฅผ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ์ „ํ˜€ ์•„๋Š”๊ฒŒ ์—†์–ด์š”.
02:16
But we know a little bit about risk mitigation
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๊ทธ๋ ‡์ง€๋งŒ ์œ„ํ—˜์„ ์™„ํ™”ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ๊ณผ
02:19
and a little bit about financial engineering,
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๊ธˆ์šฉ ๊ณตํ•™์€ ์ข€ ์•Œ์ฃ .
02:21
and so we started thinking, what could we do?
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ด ๋ดค์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. "์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๋ญ˜ ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์„๊นŒ?"
์ง€๊ธˆ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์ง€๋‚œ ๋ช‡ ๋…„๊ฐ„
02:24
I'm going to tell you about some work
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02:25
we've been doing over the last couple years
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ํ–ˆ๋˜ ์ž‘์—…์— ๊ด€ํ•ด ์–˜๊ธฐํ•˜๊ฒ ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ด๊ฒƒ์ด ์•” ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์™€ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๋งŽ์€ ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์ด
02:28
that we think could fundamentally change the way
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์ง„ํ–‰๋˜๋Š” ๋ฐฉ์‹์„ ๊ทผ๋ณธ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋ฐ”๊ฟ€ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:30
research for cancer and lots of other things gets done.
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02:33
We want to let the research drive the funding,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ํ•˜๊ณ  ์‹ถ์€ ๊ฑด ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๊ฐ€ ํˆฌ์ž๋ฅผ ์ด๋Œ๊ฒŒ ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:36
not the other way around.
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๊ทธ ๋ฐ˜๋Œ€๊ฐ€ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ์š”.
02:38
So in order to get started,
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์ผ๋‹จ ๊ทธ ์‹œ์ž‘์œผ๋กœ, ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ
02:39
let me tell you how you get a drug financed.
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์‹ ์•ฝ์— ์žฌ์›์ด ํˆฌ์ž๋˜๋Š”์ง€ ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐํ•˜๊ฒ ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:41
Imagine that you're in your lab -- you're a scientist, you're not like me --
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์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„์ด ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์†Œ์— ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ณผํ•™์ž๋ผ๊ณ  ํ•ฉ์‹œ๋‹ค.
์ €์™€๋Š” ๋‹ฌ๋ฆฌ ์ง„์งœ ๊ณผํ•™์ž์š”.
02:46
and you've developed a new compound
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์•” ์น˜๋ฃŒ์— ํšจ๊ณผ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์„ ๊ฒƒ ๊ฐ™์€
02:48
that you think might be therapeutic for somebody with cancer.
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์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ๋ฌผ์งˆ์„ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:52
Well, what you do is, you test in animals, you test in test tubes,
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋ฉด ๋™๋ฌผ ์‹คํ—˜๋„ ํ•ด๋ณด๊ณ 
์‹œํ—˜๊ด€์—๋„ ๊ฒ€์ฆ๋„ ํ•ด๋ณด์ง€์š”.
02:55
but there's this notion of going from the bench to the bedside,
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ๋ฐ ์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ์˜์ž์—์„œ ์นจ๋Œ€ ์˜†์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€์ ธ๊ฐ€๋ ค๋ฉด
02:58
and in order to get from the bench, the lab, to the bedside, to the patients,
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ ์˜์ž, ์ฆ‰ ์‹คํ—˜์‹ค์—์„œ
์นจ๋Œ€ ๊ณ์˜ ํ™˜์ž์—๊ฒŒ ๊ฐ€์ ธ๊ฐ€๋ ค๋ฉด
03:02
you've got to get the drug tested.
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๋ฐ˜๋“œ์‹œ ์ž„์ƒ ์‹คํ—˜์„ ๊ฑฐ์ณ์•ผ๋งŒ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:04
And the way the drug gets tested
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์ž„์ƒ ์‹คํ—˜์€ ๋ช‡ ๋‹จ๊ณ„์˜ ๊ฒ€์ฆ ๊ณผ์ •์„ ๋งํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฑด๋ฐ
03:06
is through a series of, basically, experiments,
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03:08
through these large, they're called trials,
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๊ฒ€์ฆ์ด๋ผ๋Š” ์ด ๊ฐ๊ฐ์˜ ๊ณผ์ •์„ ํ†ตํ•ด์„œ
03:10
that they do to determine whether the drug is safe
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์•ฝ๋ฌผ์ด ์•ˆ์ „ํ•œ์ง€, ์ž˜ ์ž‘์šฉํ•˜๋Š”์ง€ ๋“ฑ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ ๊ฐ€์ง€๋ฅผ ๊ฒ€์ฆํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:12
and whether it works and all these things.
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03:14
So the FDA has a very specific protocol.
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FDA (๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์‹ํ’ˆ ์˜์•ฝ๊ตญ) ์— ๊ตฌ์ฒด์ ์ธ ๊ทœ์•ฝ์ด ์žˆ๋Š”๋ฐ,
03:16
In the first phase of this testing,
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์ฒซ๋ฒˆ์งธ ๋‹จ๊ณ„์—๋Š” ์•ฝ๋ฌผ์˜ ๋…์„ฑ ๊ฒ€์‚ฌ๋ฅผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:18
which is called testing for toxicity, it's called Phase I.
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๋‹จ๊ณ„ 1์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ํ•˜์ง€์š”.
03:22
In the first phase, you give the drug to healthy people
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์ด ์ฒซ ๋‹จ๊ณ„์—์„œ๋Š” ๊ฑด๊ฐ•ํ•œ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ ์•ฝ์„ ์ค๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:25
and you see if it actually makes them sick.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ ์„œ ์•„ํ”ˆ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์ด ์žˆ๋Š”์ง€ ๋ณด๋Š” ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
๋ถ€์ž‘์šฉ์ด ๋„ˆ๋ฌด ์‹ฌํ•˜๋ฉด
03:28
In other words, are the side effects just so severe
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03:30
that no matter how much good it does,
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์•„๋ฌด๋ฆฌ ์•ฝ์ด ์ข‹๋”๋ผ๋„
์•„๋ฌด ์†Œ์šฉ์ด ์—†๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด์ฃ .
03:32
it's not going to be worth it?
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์‹ฌ์žฅ ๋งˆ๋น„๋ฅผ ์ผ์œผํ‚ค๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์‚ฌ๋งํ•˜๊ฑฐ๋‚˜
03:34
Does it cause heart attacks, kill people, liver failure?
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๊ฐ„๋ถ€์ „์ด ์ผ์–ด๋‚˜๋Š” ์ง€์™€ ๊ฐ™์€ ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์„ ๋ด…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
์‚ฌ์‹ค ์ด ๋‹จ๊ณ„๊ฐ€ ์ƒ๋‹นํ•œ ๊ณ ๋น„์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:37
And it turns out, that's a pretty high hurdle.
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03:39
About a third of all drugs drop out at that point.
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์•ฝ๋ฌผ์˜ 1/3 ์ •๋„๊ฐ€ ์—ฌ๊ธฐ์„œ ์ค‘๋„ ํ•˜์ฐจํ•˜์ฃ .
03:41
In the next phase, you test to see if the drug's effective,
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๋‹ค์Œ ๋‹จ๊ณ„์—์„œ๋Š” ์•ฝ์˜ ํšจ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ๋ด…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
๊ฒ€์ฆํ•  ์•ฝ๋“ค์„ ์‹ค์ œ ์•” ํ™˜์ž๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ ์ฃผ๊ณ 
03:44
and you give it to people with cancer
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03:46
and you see if it makes them better.
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์ฆ์ƒ์ด ํ˜ธ์ „๋˜๋Š”์ง€ ํ™•์ธํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:48
And that's also a higher hurdle. People drop out.
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์ด๊ฒƒ๋„ ํฐ ๊ณ ๋น„์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋งŽ์ด๋“ค ํƒˆ๋ฝํ•˜์ฃ .
03:50
And in the third phase, you test it on a very large sample,
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์„ธ๋ฒˆ์งธ ๋‹จ๊ณ„์—์„œ๋Š” ๋งค์šฐ ๋งŽ์€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ ์‹คํ—˜ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:53
and you're trying to determine what the right dose is,
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์—ฌ๊ธฐ์„œ๋Š” ์–ผ๋งˆ๊ฐ€ ์ ์ •๋Ÿ‰์ธ์ง€
๋˜ ์ด๋ฏธ ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ๋ณด๋‹ค ์ข‹์€์ง€ ํ™•์ธํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:56
is it better than what's available today? If not, then why build it?
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์ข‹์ง€ ์•Š์œผ๋ฉด ๋ญํ•˜๋Ÿฌ ๋งŒ๋“ค๊ฒ ์–ด์š”?
03:59
When you're done with all that,
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์—ฌ๊ธฐ๊นŒ์ง€ ๋˜๋ฉด
04:01
what you have is a very small percentage of drugs
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๋ช‡ ํผ์„ผํŠธ์˜ ์•ฝ๋ฌผ๋“ค๋งŒ ์‹คํ—˜ ๊ณผ์ •์„ ๊ฑฐ์ณ ์‚ด์•„๋‚จ์ฃ .
04:04
that start the process actually come out the other side.
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04:07
So those blue bottles -- those blue bottles save lives,
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๊ทธ๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ํ•ด์„œ ์ € ํŒŒ๋ž€ ๋ณ‘๋“ค์ด ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์„ ์‚ด๋ฆฝ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
๋ช‡์‹ญ ์–ต ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ์˜ ๊ฐ€์น˜๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์ฃ .
04:11
and they're also worth billions, sometimes billions a year.
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๋•Œ๋ก  ๋งค๋…„ ๋ช‡์‹ญ์–ต ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ์ผ ์ˆ˜๋„ ์žˆ๊ณ ์š”.
04:14
So now here's a question:
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์ด์ œ ํ•œ ๋ฒˆ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ด๋ด…์‹œ๋‹ค.
04:16
if I were to ask you, for example,
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์ œ๊ฐ€ ๋”ฑ ํ•œ ๋ฒˆ ๊ธฐํšŒ์—
04:19
to make a one-time investment of, say, 200 million dollars
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2์–ต ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์งœ๋ฆฌ ํˆฌ์ž๋ฅผ ์š”์ฒญํ–ˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ด๋ณด์„ธ์š”.
04:23
to buy one of those bottles,
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์ € ๋ณ‘๋“ค ์ค‘์— ํ•˜๋‚˜๋งŒ ๊ณ ๋ฅผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์–ด์š”.
04:25
so 200 million dollars up front, one time, to buy one of those bottles,
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2์ฒœ๋งŒ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ฅผ ๋จผ์ € ์ฃผ๊ณ  ์ € ๋ณ‘๋“ค ์ค‘์— ํ•˜๋‚˜๋งŒ ์“ฐ๋Š” ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:28
I won't tell you which one it is,
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๋ฌด์Šจ ๋ณ‘์ธ์ง€๋Š” ์–˜๊ธฐ ์•ˆ ํ–ˆ๋‹ค๊ฐ€
04:30
and in 10 years, I'll tell you whether you have one of the blue ones.
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10๋…„ ํ›„์—๋‚˜ ์–ด๋–ค ๊ฒŒ ํŒŒ๋ž€ ๋ณ‘์ธ์ง€ ์•Œ๋ ค๋“œ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
์ด ์ค‘์— ํˆฌ์žํ•˜์‹ค ๋ถ„์ด ์žˆ์„๊นŒ์š”?
04:34
Does that sound like a good deal for anybody?
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04:36
No. No, right?
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์—†๊ฒ ์ฃ . ๊ทธ๋ ‡์ฃ ?
04:37
And of course, it's a very, very risky trial position,
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๋‹น์—ฐํžˆ ๋งค์šฐ ์œ„ํ—˜ํ•œ ์ œ์•ˆ์ด์ง€์š”.
๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ํˆฌ์ž๋ฐ›๊ธฐ๊ฐ€ ์–ด๋ ต์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:40
and that's why it's very hard to get funding,
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๊ทธ๋ ‡์ง€๋งŒ ๋‹จ์ˆœํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋ณด๋ฉด
04:42
but to a first approximation, that's actually the proposal.
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ํ˜„์žฌ์˜ ์‹ ์•ฝ ํˆฌ์ž๊ฐ€ ์ด๋ ‡๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
์•ฝํ’ˆ๋“ค์— ์ผ์ฐ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ํˆฌ์žํ•ด์•ผ ํ•˜๊ณ 
04:45
You have to fund these things from the early stages on.
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์•„์ฃผ ์˜ค๋ž˜ ํˆฌ์žํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์–ด์•ผ ํ•˜์ง€์š”.
04:47
It takes a long time.
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์•ค๋“œ๋ฅ˜๊ฐ€ ์ œ๊ฒŒ ์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ๋งํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:49
So Andrew said to me, he said,
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"์ด๊ฒƒ๋“ค์ด ์‹ ์•ฝ์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜๋ฉด ์–ด๋–จ๊นŒ?
04:52
"What if we stop thinking about these as drugs?
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04:55
What if we start thinking about them as financial assets?"
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๋งŒ์•ฝ ์ด๊ฒƒ๋“ค์ด ๊ธˆ์œต ์ž์‚ฐ์ด๋ผ๋ฉด?
04:57
They've got really weird payoff structures and all that,
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์ˆ˜์ต ๊ตฌ์กฐ๊ฐ€ ์ด์ƒํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์ƒ๊ธฐ๊ธด ํ–ˆ์ง€๋งŒ
์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๊ธˆ์œต ๊ณตํ•™์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ์•„๋Š” ๋ชจ๋“  ๊ฒƒ์„ ์ ์šฉํ•ด๋ณด์ž๊ณ .
05:00
but let's throw everything we know about financial engineering at them.
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05:03
Let's see if we can use all the tricks of the trade
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๊ธˆ์œต ๊ณตํ•™์˜ ๋ชจ๋“  ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•๋“ค์„ ์ด์šฉํ•ด์„œ
์ด ์•ฝ๋“ค์„ ๊ธˆ์œต ์ž์‚ฐ์œผ๋กœ ๋งŒ๋“ค์–ด ๋ณด๋ฉด ์–ด๋–จ๊นŒ?
05:06
to figure out how to make these drugs work as financial assets.
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๋Œ€ํ˜• ํŽ€๋“œ๋ฅผ ๋งŒ๋“ค์–ด ๋ณด์ž๊ณ ."
05:10
Let's create a giant fund.
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๊ธˆ์œต์—์„œ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์œ„ํ—˜ํ•œ ์ž์‚ฐ์„
05:12
In finance, we know what to do with assets that are risky.
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์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ํ•ด์•ผ ํ•˜๋Š”์ง€ ์•Œ๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
ํฌํŠธํด๋ฆฌ์˜ค๋ฅผ ๋งŒ๋“œ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด์ง€์š”.
05:15
You put them in a portfolio and you try to smooth out the returns.
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์ˆ˜์ต์„ ๋ถ„์‚ฐํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฑฐ์—์š”.
05:18
So we did some math, and it turned out you could make this work,
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๊ณ„์‚ฐ์„ ํ•ด๋ณด๋‹ˆ๊นŒ
์ด๊ฑฐ ๋˜๊ฒ ๋”๋ผ๊ณ ์š”. ๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ๋ฐ ์ด๊ฒŒ ๋˜๋„๋ก ํ•˜๋ ค๋ฉด
05:21
but in order to make it work, you need about 80 to 150 drugs.
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์‹ ์•ฝ์ด 80~150๊ฐœ ์ •๋„ ํ•„์š”ํ•ด์š”.
05:24
Now the good news is, there's plenty of drugs
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์ข‹์€ ์†Œ์‹์€ ์‹ ์•ฝ์ด ๊ฝค ๋งŽ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:26
that are waiting to be tested.
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๊ฒ€์ฆ๋˜๊ธฐ๋งŒ์„ ๊ธฐ๋‹ค๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์žˆ์ฃ .
์ž”๋œฉ ๋ฐ€๋ ค์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ํ•˜๋”๊ตฐ์š”
05:28
We've been told that there's a backlog of about 20 years of drugs
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๊ฑฐ์˜ 20๋…„์น˜๋‚˜
05:32
that are waiting to be tested but can't be funded.
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๊ฒ€์ฆ์„ ๊ธฐ๋‹ค๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์žˆ์ง€๋งŒ ํˆฌ์ž๋ฅผ ๋ฐ›์ง€ ๋ชปํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค..
05:34
In fact, that early stage of the funding process,
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์‚ฌ์‹ค ๊ทธ ์ดˆ๊ธฐ ํˆฌ์ž ๊ณผ์ •์€,
05:37
that Phase I and preclinical stuff,
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1 ๋‹จ๊ณ„์™€ ์ž„์ƒ ์‹คํ—˜ ์ „์— ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์ด์š”,
์—…๊ณ„์—์„œ๋Š” ์ฃฝ์Œ์˜ ๊ณ„๊ณก์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ๋ถˆ๋ฆฝ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:39
that's actually, in the industry, called the Valley of Death
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์•ฝ๋“ค์ด ์ฃฝ์–ด ์—†์–ด์ง€๋‹ˆ๊นŒ์š”.
05:42
because it's where drugs go to die.
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05:43
It's very hard to for them to get through there,
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๊ทธ ์ฒซ ๋‹จ๊ณ„๋ฅผ ํ†ต๊ณผํ•˜๊ธฐ๊ฐ€ ํž˜๋“ค์ง€์š”.
๊ทธ ๊ณผ์ •์„ ํ†ต๊ณผํ•˜์ง€ ๋ชปํ•˜๋ฉด ๊ทธ ๋‹ค์Œ ๋‹จ๊ณ„๋กœ ๊ฐˆ ์ˆ˜๊ฐ€ ์—†์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:46
and of course, if you can't get through there,
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05:48
you can't get to the later stages.
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ๊ณ„์‚ฐ์„ ์ข€ ํ•ด๋ณด๋‹ˆ๊นŒ "๊ทธ๋ž˜,
05:50
So we did this math, and we figured out, OK,
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์•ฝ์ด ํ•œ 80~150๊ฐœ ์ •๋„ ์žˆ์–ด์•ผ๊ฒ ๋„ค."
05:52
well, you need about 80 to, say, 150, or something like that, drugs.
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์ข€ ๋” ๊ณ„์‚ฐํ•ด๋ณด๋‹ˆ๊นŒ
05:55
And then we did a little more math, and we said, OK,
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"๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋ฉด ๋Œ€์ถฉ
05:58
well, that's a fund of about three to 15 billion dollars.
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30~150์–ต ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์ •๋„ ํ•„์š”ํ•˜๊ฒ ๋„ค." ์‹ถ์—ˆ์–ด์š”.
06:01
So we kind of created a new problem by solving the old one.
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‹ˆ๊นŒ ๋ฌธ์ œ๊ฐ€ ๋ฐ”๋€ ๊ฒƒ์ด์ง€์š”.
์›๋ž˜ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋Š” ํ•ด๊ฒฐ๋์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:05
We got rid of the risk, but now we need a lot of capital,
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ํˆฌ์ž ์œ„ํ—˜์€ ์—†์–ด์กŒ๋Š”๋ฐ, ์ด์ œ ์—„์ฒญ๋‚˜๊ฒŒ ํฐ ์ž๋ณธ์ด ํ•„์š”ํ•œ๊ฑฐ์ฃ 
06:08
and you can only get that kind of capital in the capital markets.
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๊ทธ๋งŒํ•œ ์ž๋ณธ์€ ํ•œ ๊ณณ์—๋งŒ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
๋ฐ”๋กœ ๊ธˆ์œต ์‹œ์žฅ์ด์ฃ .
06:11
Venture capitalists and philanthropies don't have it.
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๋ฒค์ฒ˜์บํ”ผํƒˆ๋„ ์ž์„  ์‚ฌ์—…๊ฐ€๋„ ๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ๋ˆ์€ ์—†์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ๋ฐ ๊ธˆ์œต์‹œ์žฅ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ์ด๋Ÿฐ ๋ฐ ํˆฌ์žํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:14
But we have to figure out how to get people in the capital markets,
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์ด๋Ÿฐ ๋ฐ ํˆฌ์žํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š๋Š” ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์„ ํˆฌ์žํ•˜๊ณ  ์‹ถ๊ฒŒ ํ•ด์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:17
who traditionally don't invest in this, to want to invest in this stuff.
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‹ˆ ๋‹ค์‹œ ๊ธˆ์œต ๊ณตํ•™์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋ด…์‹œ๋‹ค.
06:21
So again, financial engineering was helpful here.
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๋งจ์†์œผ๋กœ ๋Œ€ํ˜• ํŽ€๋“œ๋ฅผ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ•œ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ด๋ณด์„ธ์š”.
06:23
Imagine the megafund starts empty,
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์ฒ˜์Œ์—๋Š” ๋นš๋„ ์ข€ ๋‚ด๊ณ  ์ฃผ์‹๋„ ๋ฐœํ–‰ํ•˜์ฃ .
06:25
and what it does is it issues some debt and some equity,
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06:29
and that generates cash flow.
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋ฉด ํ˜„๊ธˆ์ด ์ƒ๊น๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:30
That cash flow is used, then, to buy that big portfolio of drugs that you need,
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๊ทธ๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ์ƒ๊ธด ํ˜„๊ธˆ์œผ๋กœ
ํ•„์š”ํ•œ ์‹ ์•ฝ๋“ค์„ ๋งŽ์ด ์‚ฌ๋Š” ๊ฑฐ์—์š”.
06:34
and those drugs start working their way through that approval process,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์•ฝ๋ฌผ ํ—ˆ๊ฐ€ ๋‹จ๊ณ„๋ฅผ ๋ฐŸ์•„ ๋‚˜๊ฐ€๋„๋ก ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
ํ—ˆ๊ฐ€ ๋‹จ๊ณ„๋ฅผ ํ•œ ๋‹จ๊ณ„ ํ†ต๊ณผํ•  ๋•Œ๋งˆ๋‹ค
06:38
and each time they go through a phase of approval,
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์‹ ์•ฝ์˜ ๊ฐ€์น˜๊ฐ€ ์˜ฌ๋ผ๊ฐ‘๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
๋Œ€๋ถ€๋ถ„์€ ํ†ต๊ณผ์— ์‹คํŒจํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ
06:40
they gain value.
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06:41
Most of them don't make it, but a few of them do,
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๋ช‡ ๊ฐœ๋Š” ํ†ต๊ณผํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
๊ฐ€์น˜๊ฐ€ ์ปค์ง„ ๊ฒƒ๋“ค ์ค‘์—
06:44
and with the ones that gain value, you can sell some,
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๋ช‡ ๊ฐœ๋ฅผ ํŒ”๋ฉด
06:46
and when you sell them,
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๋นš์˜ ์ด์ž๋„ ๊ฐš๊ณ 
06:47
you have money to pay the interest on those bonds,
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๋‹ค์Œ ๋‹จ๊ณ„ ์‹คํ—˜์— ํˆฌ์ž๋„ ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์ง€์š”.
06:50
but also to fund the next round of trials.
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์Šค์Šค๋กœ ์žฌ์›์„ ๋งˆ๋ จํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:52
It's almost self-funding.
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06:53
You do that for the course of the transaction,
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ๊ณผ์ •์„ ๋ฐ˜๋ณตํ•œ ํ›„,
06:55
and when you're done, you liquidate the portfolio,
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๋งˆ์ง€๋ง‰์— ์ฒญ์‚ฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
๋นš์„ ๊ฐš๊ณ 
06:58
pay back the bonds, and you can give the equity holders a nice return.
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์ฃผ์ฃผ๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ ์ƒ๋‹นํ•œ ์ด์ต์„ ๋Œ๋ ค์ฃผ๋Š” ๊ฑฐ์ฃ .
07:01
That was the theory, and we talked about it,
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์ผ๋‹จ ์ด๋ก ์€ ๊ทธ๋žฌ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๋…ผ์˜๋„ ํ•˜๊ณ 
07:03
we did a bunch of experiments,
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์ด๋Ÿฐ ์ €๋Ÿฐ ์‹œํ—˜๋„ ํ•ด๋ณด๊ณ 
๊ฒฐ๊ตญ "ํ•œ ๋ฒˆ ๋˜๋Š”์ง€ ๋ณด์ž" ๊นŒ์ง€ ๊ฐ”์–ด์š”.
07:05
and then we said, let's really try to test it.
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๊ทธ ๋‹ค์Œ ๋‘ ํ•ด ๋™์•ˆ ์ €ํฌ๋Š” ์—ฐ๊ตฌํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:07
We spent the next two years doing research.
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07:10
We talked to hundreds of experts in drug financing and venture capital.
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์ˆ˜๋ฐฑ ๋ช…์˜ ์‹ ์•ฝ ํˆฌ์ž ์ „๋ฌธ๊ฐ€,
๋ฒค์ฒ˜์บํ”ผํƒˆ,
07:15
We talked to people who have developed drugs.
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์‹ ์•ฝ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ์„ ํ•ด ๋ณธ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค,
07:17
We talked to pharmaceutical companies.
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๋˜ ์ œ์•ฝ ํšŒ์‚ฌ๋“ค๊ณผ ์–˜๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ๋‚˜๋ˆด์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:19
We actually looked at the data for drugs,
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2,000๊ฐœ๊ฐ€ ๋„˜๋Š” ํ—ˆ๊ฐ€, ๊ฑฐ์ ˆ, ํฌ๊ธฐ๋œ ์‹ ์•ฝ์˜ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋“ค๋„ ์‚ดํŽด๋ดค์–ด์š”.
07:22
over 2,000 drugs that had been approved or denied or withdrawn,
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07:26
and we also ran millions of simulations.
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๋˜ ์ˆ˜๋งŽ์€ ๋ชจ์˜ ์‹คํ—˜๋„ ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:30
And all that actually took a lot of time.
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ํ•˜๋‹ค๋ณด๋‹ˆ ์‹œ๊ฐ„์ด ์ข€ ๊ฑธ๋ ธ์ฃ .
07:32
But when we were done, we found something that was sort of surprising.
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๊ทธ๋ ‡์ง€๋งŒ ๋‹ค ํ•˜๊ณ  ๋‚˜์„œ ๊ฝค๋‚˜ ๋†€๋ผ์šด ์ ์„ ๋ฐœ๊ฒฌํ–ˆ์–ด์š”.
๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ํŽ€๋“œ๋ฅผ ๋งŒ๋“ค๋งŒ ํ•˜๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:36
It was feasible to structure that fund
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07:37
such that when you were done structuring it,
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์ •๋ง ์ข‹์•„์„œ ๋งŒ๋“ค๊ณ  ๋ณด๋ฉด
์ฑ„๊ถŒ์ž๋“ค์ด ์ข‹์•„ํ•  ๋งŒํ•œ ์ €์œ„ํ—˜์˜ ์ฑ„๊ถŒ์ด ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:40
you could actually produce low-risk bonds that would be attractive to bond holders,
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์ด์ž๋Š” 5~8%๊ฐ€ ๋˜๊ณ 
07:44
that would give you yields of about five to eight percent,
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07:46
and you could produce equity
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์ฃผ์‹์œผ๋กœ์„œ๋Š”
07:48
that would give equity holders about a 12 percent return.
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์ฃผ์ฃผ์—๊ฒŒ 12% ์ด์œค์„ ๋‚ด๋Š” ํˆฌ์ž๊ฐ€ ๋งŒ๋“ค์–ด์ง‘๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ๋ฐ ์ด ์ •๋„ ์ด์œค์€ ๋ฒค์ฒ˜์บํ”ผํƒˆ์—๊ฒŒ ๋งค๋ ฅ์ ์ผ ์ •๋„๋Š” ์•„๋‹ˆ์—์š”
07:51
Now those returns aren't going to be attractive to a venture capitalist.
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๋ฒค์ฒ˜์บํ”ผํƒˆ์€ ์œ„ํ—˜ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ํˆฌ์žํ•ด์„œ
07:54
They want to make those big bets
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07:55
and get those billion dollar payoffs.
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์ˆ˜์‹ญ์–ต ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ์˜ ๋ณด์ƒ์„ ์›ํ•˜์ฃ .
07:57
But it turns out there are lots of other folks that would be interested.
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์ด๋Ÿฐ ํŽ€๋“œ๋ฅผ ์›ํ•˜๋Š” ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋„ ๋งŽ์ด ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
์—ฐ๊ธˆ ๊ธฐ๊ธˆ์ด๋‚˜ ๊ตญ๋ฏผ ์—ฐ๊ธˆ ๊ฐ™์€๋ฐ์„œ ๋”ฑ ์›ํ•˜๋Š” ํŽ€๋“œ์ฃ .
08:01
That's right in the investment sweet spot of pension funds and 401(k) plans
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08:05
and all this other stuff.
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08:06
So we published some articles in the academic press,
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ด ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ํ•™์ˆ  ๋…ผ๋ฌธ์œผ๋กœ ๋ฐœํ‘œํ•˜๊ณ 
์˜๋ฃŒ ์ €๋„์—๋„ ๊ธฐ์‚ฌ๋กœ ์“ฐ๊ณ 
08:09
in medical journals, in finance journals.
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๊ธˆ์œต ์ €๋„์—๋„ ๊ธฐ์‚ฌ๋กœ ์ผ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:14
But it wasn't until we actually got the popular press interested in this
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๊ทธ๋ ‡์ง€๋งŒ ๊ฒฐ๊ตญ ์ธ๊ธฐ์žˆ๋Š” ์–ธ๋ก ์ด ๊ด€์‹ฌ์„ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ  ๋‚˜์„œ์•ผ
08:17
that we began to get some traction.
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์ผ์ด ํ’€๋ ค๊ฐ”์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:20
We wanted to do more than just make people aware of it.
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์ด๋Ÿฐ๊ฒŒ ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์•Œ๋ฆฌ๋Š”๊ฒŒ ์ €ํฌ๋“ค์˜ ๋ชฉํ‘œ๋Š” ์•„๋‹ˆ์—ˆ์–ด์š”.
08:22
We wanted people to get involved.
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์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ์ฐธ์—ฌํ•˜๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ๋ฐ”๋žฌ์ฃ .
08:24
So we took all of our computer code and made that available online
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์›ํ•˜๋Š” ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์€ ๋ˆ„๊ตฌ๋‚˜ ์“ธ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋„๋ก ์˜คํ”ˆ ์†Œ์Šค ๋ผ์ด์„ผ์Šค๋กœ
08:27
under an open-source license to anybody that wanted it.
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์ธํ„ฐ๋„ท์— ์ปดํ“จํ„ฐ ํ”„๋กœ๊ทธ๋žจ์„ ๊ณต๊ฐœํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:30
And you guys can download it today
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์ด๊ฒŒ ๋˜๋Š”์ง€ ์ง์ ‘ ์‹คํ—˜ํ•ด๋ณด๊ณ  ์‹ถ์œผ์‹œ๋ฉด ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„๋„ ์˜ค๋Š˜ ๋‚ด๋ ค๋ฐ›์œผ์‹ค ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:32
if you want to run your own experiments to see if this would work.
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์ด๊ฑด ๊ฝค ํšจ๊ณผ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์—ˆ๋Š”๋ฐ์š”.
08:35
And that was really effective,
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์™œ๋ƒํ•˜๋ฉด ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๋‚ด๋ฆฐ ๊ฐ€์ •์„ ๋ฏฟ์ง€ ๋ชปํ•˜๋Š” ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด
08:36
because people that didn't believe our assumptions
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์ž์‹ ๋“ค์˜ ๊ฐ€์ •์œผ๋กœ ์‹œํ—˜ํ•ด ๋ณผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์—ˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:39
could try their own and see how it would work.
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์ด์ œ ๋ป”ํ•œ ๋ฌธ์ œ๊ฐ€ ํ•˜๋‚˜ ์žˆ์–ด์š”.
08:41
Now there's an obvious problem, which is,
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์„ธ์ƒ์— ๊ทธ๋งŒํผ ํฌ๊ฒŒ ํˆฌ์žํ•  ๋งŒํ•œ ๋ˆ์ด ์žˆ์„๊นŒ์š”?
08:43
is there enough money in the world to fund this?
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08:45
I've told you there's enough drugs, but is there enough money?
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์‹ ์•ฝ์€ ๋งŽ๋‹ค๊ณ  ํ–ˆ์ง€์š”.
๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ๋ฐ ํˆฌ์žํ•  ๋ˆ์ด ์ถฉ๋ถ„ํžˆ ์žˆ์„๊นŒ์š”?
08:48
There's 100 trillion dollars of capital
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ํ˜„์žฌ 100์กฐ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ์˜ ์ž๋ณธ์ด ๊ณ ์ • ์ˆ˜์ต์ฆ๊ถŒ์— ํˆฌ์ž๋˜์–ด ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:50
currently invested in fixed-income securities.
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08:54
That's a hundred thousand billion.
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10์–ต ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ๊ฐ€ ์ˆ˜์‹ญ๋งŒ ๊ฐœ ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฑฐ์ฃ .
08:58
There's plenty of money.
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๋ˆ์€ ๋งŽ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:59
(Laughter)
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09:04
But we realized it's more than just money that's required.
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ๋ฐ ์ €ํฌ๋Š” ๋ˆ ๋ณด๋‹ค ๋งŽ์€๊ฒŒ ํ•„์š”ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ๊นจ๋‹ฌ์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:06
We had to get people motivated, involved,
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์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ ๋™๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ๋ถ€์—ฌํ•˜๊ณ , ์ฐธ์—ฌ์‹œํ‚ค๊ณ , ์ดํ•ด์‹œ์ผœ์•ผ ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:08
and get them to understand this.
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09:10
And we started thinking about all the different things that could go wrong.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋ญ๊ฐ€ ์ž˜๋ชป๋  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š”๊ฐ€๋„ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ด๋ดค์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
์–ด๋–ค ์žฅ์• ๋ฌผ์ด ๊ฐ€๋กœ๋ง‰์„๊นŒ์š”?
09:14
What are all the challenges that might get in the way?
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09:17
And we had a long list.
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์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š”
09:18
We assigned a bunch of people, including ourselves,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ํฌํ•จํ•ด ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์„ ๋ถ™์—ฌ์„œ
09:21
different pieces of this problem.
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์„œ๋กœ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋“ค์„ ํ•ด๊ฒฐํ•˜๋„๋ก ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:23
And we said, could you start a work stream on credit risk?
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์ฃผ๋กœ ์ด๋Ÿฐ ์š”์ฒญ์„ ํ–ˆ์ฃ . "์‹ ์šฉ ์œ„ํ—˜ ๋ฌธ์ œ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ์ผํ•ด ์ฃผ์‹œ๊ฒ ์–ด์š”?"
09:26
Could you start a work stream on the regulatory aspects?
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๊ทœ์ œ ๋ฐฉ๋ฉด์—์„œ ์ข€ ๋„์™€์ฃผ์‹œ๊ฒ ์–ด์š”?
๊ทธ๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ๋งŽ์€ ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ๋“ค์„ ๊ด€๋ฆฌํ•  ์—…๋ฌด ๋ฐฉ๋ฉด์„ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ•ด ์ฃผ์‹œ๊ฒ ์–ด์š”?"
09:29
Could you start a work stream on how you would manage so many projects?
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09:33
And we had all these experts get together and do these different work streams,
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์ „๋ฌธ๊ฐ€๋“ค์„ ๋ชจ์•„ ์„œ๋กœ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋“ค์„ ํ•ด๊ฒฐํ•˜๊ฒŒ ํ•˜๊ณ 
ํšŒ์˜๋ฅผ ์—ด์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:37
and then we held a conference.
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ํšŒ์˜๋Š” ์ž‘๋…„ ์—ฌ๋ฆ„์— ์—ด๋ ธ๋Š”๋ฐ
09:39
The conference was held over this past summer.
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์ดˆ๋Œ€๋ฐ›์€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค๋งŒ ์˜ฌ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:41
It was an invitation-only conference.
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ์•”ํ•™ํšŒ์˜ ํ›„์›์„ ๋ฐ›๊ณ 
09:43
It was sponsored by the American Cancer Society
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๊ตญ๋ฆฝ์•”์—ฐ๊ตฌ์†Œ์˜ ํ˜‘๋ ฅ์„ ๋ฐ›์•˜์ง€์š”.
09:45
and done in collaboration with the National Cancer Institute.
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09:48
We had experts from every field we thought would be important,
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์ค‘์š”ํ•˜๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐ๋˜๋Š” ๋ชจ๋“  ๋ถ„์•ผ์˜ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์„ ์ดˆ๋Œ€ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:51
including the government, and people that run research centers,
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์ •๋ถ€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค, ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์†Œ ์šด์˜์ž๋“ค ๋“ฑ์ด์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:54
and for two days they heard the reports
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์ดํ‹€ ๋™์•ˆ 5๊ฐ€์ง€ ๋ฐฉ๋ฉด์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด
09:57
from those five work streams, and talked about it.
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์ผํ•œ ๋ณด๊ณ ๋ฅผ ๋“ฃ๊ณ  ์–˜๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ๋‚˜๋ˆด์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
์ฒ˜์Œ์œผ๋กœ
09:59
It was the first time the people who could make this happen
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์ด ์ผ์„ ์‹ค์ œ๋กœ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•˜๊ฒŒ ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด
10:02
sat across the table from each other and had these conversations.
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์ฑ…์ƒ์— ๋งˆ์ฃผ ์•‰์•„
์ด์•ผ๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ๋‚˜๋ˆ„์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:05
Now these conferences, it's typical to have a dinner,
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์ด๋Ÿฐ ํ–‰์‚ฌ์—์„œ๋Š” ์ €๋… ์‹์‚ฌ๋ฅผ ํ•˜์ฃ .
10:09
and at that dinner, you get to know each other,
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์ €๋… ์‹์‚ฌ๋ฅผ ํ•˜๋‹ค๋ณด๋ฉด
์„œ๋กœ ์•ˆ๋ฉด์„ ์ตํžˆ๊ณค ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:12
sort of like what we're doing here.
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์ง€๊ธˆ ์—ฌ๊ธฐ์„œ ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ ์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ์š”.
10:13
I happened to look out the window,
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‹ค ์ฐฝ ๋ฐ–์„ ๋ดค๋Š”๋ฐ
10:15
and hand on my heart,
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๊ฑฐ์ง“๋ง ์•ˆํ•˜๊ณ 
๊ทธ ํ–‰์‚ฌ์ผ ๋ฐค์— -- ์—ฌ๋ฆ„์ด์—ˆ๋Š”๋ฐ --
10:16
on the night of this conference -- it was the summertime --
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์Œ๋ฌด์ง€๊ฐœ๋ฅผ ๋ดค์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:19
and that's what I saw, a double rainbow.
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์ข‹์€ ์ง•์กฐ๋ผ๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ด์š”.
10:22
So I'd like to think it was a good sign.
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ํšŒ์˜๊ฐ€ ๋๋‚˜๊ณ  ํŒŒ๋ฆฌ์™€ ์ƒŒํ”„๋ž€์‹œ์Šค์ฝ”์—์„œ
10:24
Since the conference, we've got people working between Paris and San Francisco,
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๋งŽ์€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ์ผ์„ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:28
lots of different folks working on this
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์ด ์ผ์— ๋งŽ์€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ์ฐธ์—ฌํ•ด์„œ
10:30
to try to see if we can really make it happen.
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์ด๊ฒƒ์ด ์ •๋ง ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•œ ์ผ์ธ์ง€ ํ™•์ธํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:32
We're not looking to start a fund, but we want somebody else to do this.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ํŽ€๋“œ๋ฅผ ๋งŒ๋“ค๋ ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ฉฐ
๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๋ˆ„๊ตฐ๊ฐ€๊ฐ€ ํ•˜๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:36
Because, again, I'm not a scientist.
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์™œ๋ƒํ•˜๋ฉด, ๋‹ค์‹œ ๋ง์”€๋“œ๋ฆฌ์ง€๋งŒ, ์ €๋Š” ๊ณผํ•™์ž๊ฐ€ ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:38
I can't build a drug.
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์•ฝ์„ ๋งŒ๋“ค์ง€๋„ ๋ชปํ•˜๊ณ ์š”.
10:40
I'm never going to have enough money to fund even one of those trials.
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์ด ์•ฝ ์ค‘์— ํ•˜๋‚˜๋งŒ์ด๋ผ๋„ ์‹คํ—˜ํ•ด ๋ณผ ๋ˆ๋„ ์ ˆ๋Œ€ ๊ฐ€์ ธ๋ณด์ง€ ๋ชปํ•˜๊ฒ ์ง€์š”.
10:44
But all of us together, with our 401(k)s,
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๊ทธ๋ ‡์ง€๋งŒ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ ๋ชจ๋‘๊ฐ€ ๋ชจ์ด๋ฉด,
๊ตญ๋ฏผ์—ฐ๊ธˆ, ์—ฐ๊ธˆ๊ธฐ๊ธˆ ๋“ฑ์œผ๋กœ ๋ชจ์ด๋ฉด
10:47
with our 529 plans, with our pension plans,
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10:49
all of us together can actually fund hundreds of trials
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์ˆ˜๋ฐฑ ๊ฐœ์˜ ์ž„์ƒ ์‹คํ—˜์— ์ž๊ธˆ์„ ์œตํ†ตํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:52
and get paid well for doing it
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋ฉด์„œ ๋ˆ๋„ ๋งŽ์ด ๋ฒŒ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:54
and save millions of lives like my dad.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์šฐ๋ฆฌ ์•„๋ฒ„์ง€ ๊ฐ™์€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค๋„ ์ˆ˜๋ฐฑ๋งŒ ๋ช… ์‚ด๋ฆด ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:57
Thank you.
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๊ฐ์‚ฌํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. (๋ฐ•์ˆ˜)
10:58
(Applause)
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์ด ์›น์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ ์ •๋ณด

์ด ์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ๋Š” ์˜์–ด ํ•™์Šต์— ์œ ์šฉํ•œ YouTube ๋™์˜์ƒ์„ ์†Œ๊ฐœํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ „ ์„ธ๊ณ„ ์ตœ๊ณ ์˜ ์„ ์ƒ๋‹˜๋“ค์ด ๊ฐ€๋ฅด์น˜๋Š” ์˜์–ด ์ˆ˜์—…์„ ๋ณด๊ฒŒ ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ฐ ๋™์˜์ƒ ํŽ˜์ด์ง€์— ํ‘œ์‹œ๋˜๋Š” ์˜์–ด ์ž๋ง‰์„ ๋”๋ธ” ํด๋ฆญํ•˜๋ฉด ๊ทธ๊ณณ์—์„œ ๋™์˜์ƒ์ด ์žฌ์ƒ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋น„๋””์˜ค ์žฌ์ƒ์— ๋งž์ถฐ ์ž๋ง‰์ด ์Šคํฌ๋กค๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์˜๊ฒฌ์ด๋‚˜ ์š”์ฒญ์ด ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ์ด ๋ฌธ์˜ ์–‘์‹์„ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹ญ์‹œ์˜ค.

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