Jeff Hawkins: How brain science will change computing

Prevoditelj: Zlatko Smetisko Recezent: Tilen Pigac - EFZG

I do two things:

Bavim se dvjema stvarima. Kreiram mobilna računala i bavim se proučavanjem mozga.

I design mobile computers and I study brains.

Today's talk is about brains and -- (Audience member cheers)

Današnji je govor o mozgu i,

Yay! I have a brain fan out there.

odlično, tamo je negdje fan mozga.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

Govorit ću, ako mi možete staviti prvi dijapozitiv,

If I could have my first slide,

vidjet ćete naslov mog govora i moje druge dvije podružnice.

you'll see the title of my talk and my two affiliations.

So what I'm going to talk about is why we don't have a good brain theory,

Ono o čemu ću pričati je zašto ne postoji dobra teorija o mozgu,

why it is important that we should develop one

zašto je važno da razvijemo takvu teoriju i što možemo poduzeti po tom pitanju.

and what we can do about it.

I'll try to do all that in 20 minutes.

Pokušat ću to napraviti u 20 minuta. Imam dvije podružnice.

I have two affiliations.

Most of you know me from my Palm and Handspring days,

Većina vas me poznaje još iz vremena kada sam radio u tvrtki Palm and Handspring,

but I also run a nonprofit scientific research institute

ali vodim i neprofitni znanstveni institut

called the Redwood Neuroscience Institute in Menlo Park.

neuroznanstveni institut Redwood u Menlo Parku

We study theoretical neuroscience and how the neocortex works.

gdje se bavimo teorijskom neuroznanošću

i načinom rada neokorteksa.

I'm going to talk all about that.

O tome ću vam pričati.

I have one slide on my other life, the computer life,

Jedan dijapozitiv je o mom drugom životu, računalnom životu, to je ovaj dijapozitiv ovdje.

and that's this slide here.

These are some of the products I've worked on over the last 20 years,

Ovo su neki od proizvoda na kojima radim zadnjih 20 godina,

starting from the very original laptop

počevši od prvotnih prijenosnih računala do nekih početnih tablet računala

to some of the first tablet computers

and so on, ending up most recently with the Treo,

i tako dalje, završivši, nedavno, s Treom

and we're continuing to do this.

i nastavljamo s daljim radom na tome.

I've done this because I believe mobile computing

Bavim se ovime jer iskreno vjerujem da je mobilno računalstvo

is the future of personal computing,

budućnost osobnog računalstva te, radeći na ovome, pokušavam učiniti svijet

and I'm trying to make the world a little bit better

malo boljim.

by working on these things.

But this was, I admit, all an accident.

No, moram priznati, ovo je sve bila slučajnost.

I really didn't want to do any of these products.

Zaista nisam želio napraviti niti jedan od ovih proizvoda

Very early in my career

i već sam na početku svoje karijere odlučio

I decided I was not going to be in the computer industry.

kako neću raditi u računalnoj industriji.

Before that, I just have to tell you

I prije nego što vam krenem pričati o tome, moram vam reći

about this picture of Graffiti I picked off the web the other day.

o ovoj maloj slici grafita koju sam pronašao neki dan na Internetu.

I was looking for a picture for Graffiti that'll text input language.

Tražio sam fotografiju grafita, malenog tekstualnog oblika,

I found a website dedicated to teachers who want to make script-writing things

i pronašao sam web stranicu posvećenu učiteljima koji žele napraviti takvo nešto

iznad svojih školskih ploča

across the top of their blackboard,

and they had added Graffiti to it, and I'm sorry about that.

tamo su dodali te grafite i sada mi je žao zbog ovoga.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

So what happened was,

Dogodilo se sljedeće: kada sam bio mlad i kada sam završio računalno inženjerstvo

when I was young and got out of engineering school at Cornell in '79,

na Cornellu 1979. godine, počeo sam raditi za Intel.

I went to work for Intel and was in the computer industry,

and three months into that, I fell in love with something else.

Radio sam u toj industriji i nakon tri mjeseca

zavolio sam nešto drugo te sam rekao „odabrao sam krivo područje u karijeri“,

I said, "I made the wrong career choice here,"

and I fell in love with brains.

zaljubio sam se u mozak.

This is not a real brain.

Ovo nije pravi mozak. Ovo je slika mozga napravljena tehnikom ocrtavanja.

This is a picture of one, a line drawing.

And I don't remember exactly how it happened,

Ne znam kako se to točno dogodilo,

but I have one recollection, which was pretty strong in my mind.

ali sjećam se jednog događaja koji je vrlo istaknut u mojem sjećanju.

In September of 1979,

U rujnu 1979. godine, izašao je broj časopisa Scientific American

Scientific American came out with a single-topic issue about the brain.

posvećen jednoj temi - mozgu. Bio je to vrlo dobar broj.

It was one of their best issues ever.

Jedno od najboljih izdanja. U časopisu je bila riječ o neuronima,

They talked about the neuron, development, disease, vision

razvoju, bolestima, vidu i svim drugim stvarima

and all the things you might want to know about brains.

koje biste željeli znati o mozgu. Zapravo je bilo vrlo impresivno.

It was really quite impressive.

One might've had the impression we knew a lot about brains.

Dobijete dojam kako puno toga znamo o mozgu.

But the last article in that issue was written by Francis Crick of DNA fame.

Međutim, zadnji je članak tog izdanja napisao Francis Crick, poznat po otkriću DNK.

Today is, I think, the 50th anniversary of the discovery of DNA.

Mislim da je danas 50-ta obljetnica otkrića DNK.

And he wrote a story basically saying, this is all well and good,

Crick je napisao članak u kojem u biti kaže,

„sve je to super, ali po pitanju mozga

but you know, we don't know diddly squat about brains,

mi pojma nemamo,

and no one has a clue how they work,

nitko ne zna kako sve to funkcionira

so don't believe what anyone tells you.

tako da ne vjerujte svemu što vam netko kaže“.

This is a quote from that article, he says:

Ovo je citat iz tog članka. On kaže, „Ono što očito nedostaje“,

"What is conspicuously lacking" -- he's a very proper British gentleman --

on je uglađeni britanski gospodin, tako da, „Ono što očito nedostaje jest

"What is conspicuously lacking is a broad framework of ideas

široki okvir ideja putem kojeg bismo interpretirali različite pristupe mozgu“.

in which to interpret these different approaches."

I thought the word "framework" was great.

Mislio sam da je riječ „okvir“ odlična.

He didn't say we didn't have a theory.

Nije čak niti rekao kako nemamo teoriju. On kaže

He says we don't even know how to begin to think about it.

da niti ne znamo kako bismo trebali započeti misliti o tome --

nemamo niti okvir.

We don't even have a framework.

Ako želimo parafrazirati Thomasa Kuhna – trenutno smo u razdoblju prije paradigmi.

We are in the pre-paradigm days, if you want to use Thomas Kuhn.

I tako sam se zaljubio u ovo i rekao „gledajte,

So I fell in love with this.

I said, look: We have all this knowledge about brains -- how hard can it be?

posjedujemo svo to znanje o mozgu. Koliko teško može biti?

It's something we can work on in my lifetime; I could make a difference.

To je nešto čime se možemo baviti za moga života“. Mislio sam da mogu napraviti nešto,

So I tried to get out of the computer business, into the brain business.

pa sam pokušao otići iz svijeta računalstva u svijet mozga.

First, I went to MIT, the AI lab was there.

Prvo sam otišao na MIT gdje imaju laboratorij za umjetnu inteligenciju

I said, I want to build intelligent machines too,

i rekao sam im „i ja želim raditi inteligentne strojeve,

but I want to study how brains work first.

ali način na koji to želim napraviti je tako da prvo proučim kako radi mozak“.

And they said, "Oh, you don't need to do that.

Rekli su mi „ma ne trebate to raditi.

You're just going to program computers, that's all.

Mi ćemo samo programirati računala, samo to i moramo raditi“.

I said, you really ought to study brains.

Ja sam im rekao „ne, stvarno biste trebali proučiti mozak“. „Znate,

They said, "No, you're wrong."

I said, "No, you're wrong," and I didn't get in.

u krivu ste“, rekli su mi. Ja sam im rekao da su oni u krivu i nisu me primili.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

I was a little disappointed -- pretty young --

Bio sam malo razočaran -- poprilično mlad, ali nakon nekoliko sam godina

but I went back again a few years later,

pokušao ponovno i taj sam put otišao u Kaliforniju, na Berkeley.

this time in California, and I went to Berkeley.

Rekao sam, pokušat ću pristupiti problemu s biološke strane.

And I said, I'll go in from the biological side.

So I got in the PhD program in biophysics.

Primili su me na doktorski studij biofizike; mislio sam „u redu,

I was like, I'm studying brains now. Well, I want to study theory.

sada proučavam mozak“ i rekao sam im „želim proučiti teoriju“.

They said, "You can't study theory about brains.

A oni su rekli „a ne, ne možeš se baviti teorijom mozga.

You can't get funded for that.

To se ne radi. Ne možeš dobiti sredstva za tako nešto.

And as a graduate student, you can't do that."

A kao doktorand time se ne možeš baviti“. „Bog moj mili“, rekao sam.

So I said, oh my gosh.

I was depressed; I said, but I can make a difference in this field.

Bio sam vrlo deprimiran. „Ali mogu biti od značaja u ovom području“, rekao sam.

Sljedeće što sam napravio je da sam se vratio računalnoj industriji

I went back in the computer industry

and said, I'll have to work here for a while.

i rekao „izgleda da ću neko vrijeme morati raditi ovdje, nešto napraviti“.

That's when I designed all those computer products.

Tada sam kreirao sve one računalne proizvode.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

I said, I want to do this for four years, make some money,

Rekao sam „želim se ovime baviti četiri godine, zaraditi nešto novaca,

I was having a family, and I would mature a bit,

osnovati obitelj, malo ću sazrijeti,

and maybe the business of neuroscience would mature a bit.

možda će i područje neuroznanosti malo sazrijeti“.

Well, it took longer than four years. It's been about 16 years.

Prošlo je više od četiri godine. Već je 16 godina tome.

But I'm doing it now, and I'm going to tell you about it.

Ali sada se bavim time i pričat ću vam o tome.

So why should we have a good brain theory?

Zašto nam je potrebna dobra teorija o mozgu?

Well, there's lots of reasons people do science.

Ljudi se bave znanošću iz raznoraznih razloga.

The most basic one is, people like to know things.

Jedan on njih -- onaj temeljni -- je taj što ljudi vole znati stvari.

We're curious, and we go out and get knowledge.

Znatiželjni smo, pa odemo u svijet i pokupimo znanje, razumijete?

Why do we study ants? It's interesting.

Zašto proučavamo mrave? Zato što je zanimljivo.

Maybe we'll learn something useful, but it's interesting and fascinating.

Možda ćemo saznati nešto vrlo korisno, ali zanimljivo ih je i fascinantno proučavati.

But sometimes a science has other attributes

Ponekad, neka znanost ima neke druge karakteristike

which makes it really interesting.

koje ju čine vrlo zanimljivom.

Sometimes a science will tell something about ourselves;

Ponekad nam znanost kaže nešto o nama,

it'll tell us who we are.

o tome tko smo.

Evolution did this and Copernicus did this,

Ponekad, kao u slučaju evolucije i Kopernikovog heliocentričnog sustava,

where we have a new understanding of who we are.

dobijemo novo saznanje o tome tko smo.

And after all, we are our brains. My brain is talking to your brain.

Na kraju krajeva, mi smo naši mozgovi. Moj mozak razgovara s vašim mozgom.

Our bodies are hanging along for the ride,

Naša su tijela tu suvišna, moj mozak razgovara s vašim mozgom.

but my brain is talking to your brain.

And if we want to understand who we are and how we feel and perceive,

I ako želimo razumijeti tko smo, kako osjećamo i doživljavamo svijet

tada trebamo razumijeti što je mozak.

we need to understand brains.

Another thing is sometimes science leads to big societal benefits, technologies,

Još nešto, ponekad znanost

dovodi do značajnih društvenih i tehnoloških dobrobiti

or businesses or whatever.

ili biznisa ili čega god što je proizašlo iz znanosti. I ovo je takav primjer

This is one, too, because when we understand how brains work,

jer kada shvatimo kako mozak funkcionira, bit ćemo sposobni

we'll be able to build intelligent machines.

napraviti inteligentne strojeve, što je po meni, globalno gledajući, dobra stvar,

That's a good thing on the whole,

with tremendous benefits to society,

te će tako nešto imati ogromne prednosti za društvo,

just like a fundamental technology.

upravo poput fundamentalne tehnologije.

So why don't we have a good theory of brains?

Zašto nemamo dobru teoriju o mozgu?

People have been working on it for 100 years.

A ljudi rade na njoj već 100 godina.

Let's first take a look at what normal science looks like.

Pogledajmo kako funkcionira normalna znanost.

This is normal science.

Ovo je normalna znanost.

Normal science is a nice balance between theory and experimentalists.

Normalna je znanost temeljena na dobro uravnoteženoj teoriji i praksi.

The theorist guy says, "I think this is what's going on,"

Teoretičari kažu „mislimo da se tu događa ovo“,

the experimentalist says, "You're wrong."

a eksperimentalisti kažu „u krivu ste“.

It goes back and forth, this works in physics, this in geology.

I tako se izmjenjuju.

Ovo funkcionira u fizici. U geologiji. Ali ako tako funkcionira normalna znanost

But if this is normal science, what does neuroscience look like?

kako funkcionira neuroznanost? Ona funkcionira ovako:

This is what neuroscience looks like.

imamo brdo podataka koje sačinjavaju anatomija, fiziologija i ponašanje.

We have this mountain of data,

which is anatomy, physiology and behavior.

You can't imagine how much detail we know about brains.

Ne možete niti pojmiti koliko detalja znamo o mozgu.

There were 28,000 people who went to the neuroscience conference this year,

Ove je godine 28.000 ljudi prisustvovalo neuroznanstvenoj konferenciji

and every one of them is doing research in brains.

i svatko se od njih bavi istraživanjem mozga.

A lot of data, but no theory.

Puno podataka. No, nema teorije. Samo beznačajni kvadratić ondje gore.

There's a little wimpy box on top there.

And theory has not played a role in any sort of grand way

Teorija nije imala nikakvu značajnu ulogu u neuroznanosti.

in the neurosciences.

And it's a real shame.

Što je velika šteta. Zašto je tome tako?

Now, why has this come about?

If you ask neuroscientists why is this the state of affairs,

Ako pitate neuroznanstvenika zašto je tomu tako,

first, they'll admit it.

najprije će to priznati. Ali ako ih pitate reći će da

But if you ask them, they say,

there's various reasons we don't have a good brain theory.

postoje brojni razlozi zašto nemamo dobru teoriju o mozgu.

Some say we still don't have enough data,

Neki će reći da nemamo dovoljno podataka,

we need more information, there's all these things we don't know.

potrebno nam je još podataka, toliko toga još ne znamo.

Well, I just told you there's data coming out of your ears.

Upravo sam vam rekao da imate toliko podataka da vam izlaze na uši.

We have so much information, we don't even know how to organize it.

Imamo toliko podataka da ne znamo kako bismo ih organizirali.

What good is more going to do?

Što će nam više podataka?

Maybe we'll be lucky and discover some magic thing, but I don't think so.

Možda nam se posreći, pa pronađemo neko magično objašnjenje, ali sumnjam.

This is a symptom of the fact that we just don't have a theory.

Simptom je to nedostatka teorije.

We don't need more data, we need a good theory.

Ne treba nam još podataka, treba nam dobra teorija.

Another one is sometimes people say,

Sljedeće što ljudi kažu jest da je mozak prekompliciran

"Brains are so complex, it'll take another 50 years."

i da će nam trebati još 50 godina do teorije.

I even think Chris said something like this yesterday, something like,

Mislim da je Chris jučer rekao ovako nešto.

Nisam siguran što si točno rekao Chris, ali rekao si nešto kao

it's one of the most complicated things in the universe.

„to je jedna od najkompliciranijih stvari u svemiru“. To nije istina.

That's not true -- you're more complicated than your brain.

Vi ste kompliciraniji od svojeg mozga. Vi imate mozak.

You've got a brain.

Isto tako, iako se mozak čini vrlo kompliciranim,

And although the brain looks very complicated,

stvari su komplicirane sve dok ih ne razumijete.

things look complicated until you understand them.

That's always been the case.

Uvijek je tako. Sve što možemo reći je da je

So we can say, my neocortex, the part of the brain I'm interested in,

moj neokorteks, onaj dio mozga koji me zanima, sačinjen od 30 milijardi stanica.

has 30 billion cells.

But, you know what? It's very, very regular.

Ali znate što? Iznimno je normalan.

In fact, it looks like it's the same thing repeated over and over again.

Zapravo, izgleda kao jedna te ista stvar nanovno i nanovo ponovljena.

It's not as complex as it looks. That's not the issue.

Nije toliko kompliciran kako izgleda. Nije u tome problem.

Some people say, brains can't understand brains.

Neki ljudi tvrde da „mozgovi ne mogu razumijeti mozgove“.

Very Zen-like. Woo.

Vrlo zen stajalište. Super. Zar ne –

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

You know, it sounds good, but why? I mean, what's the point?

Zvuči dobro, ali zašto? Koja je svrha toga?

It's just a bunch of cells. You understand your liver.

Mozak je samo skupina stanica. Razumijete jetru.

It's got a lot of cells in it too, right?

I ona se sastoji od stanica, zar ne?

So, you know, I don't think there's anything to that.

Zato ne mislim da je tome tako.

And finally, some people say,

I na kraju, neki ljudi kažu „znaš,

"I don't feel like a bunch of cells -- I'm conscious.

ne osjećam se kao hrpa stanica. Svjestan sam.

I've got this experience, I'm in the world.

Imam svo to iskustvo, u svijetu sam, razumiješ.

I can't be just a bunch of cells."

Ne mogu biti samo hrpa stanica“.

Well, people used to believe there was a life force to be living,

Prije su ljudi vjerovali da je za život potrebna životna energija,

and we now know that's really not true at all.

sada znamo da to uopće nije točno.

And there's really no evidence,

Ne postoje dokazi koji tvrde, osim ljudi koji ne vjeruju,

other than that people just disbelieve that cells can do what they do.

da stanice ne mogu raditi ono što rade.

So some people have fallen into the pit of metaphysical dualism,

Ako su neki ljudi zapali u rupu metafizičkog dualizma,

some really smart people, too, but we can reject all that.

uključujući i neke pametne ljude, mi to možemo pobiti.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

Ne, reći ću vam da se radi o nečem drugom,

No, there's something else,

something really fundamental, and it is:

nečem vrlo temeljnom, a to je sljedeće:

another reason why we don't have a good brain theory

postoji još jedan razlog nepostojanja dobre teorije o mozgu,

is because we have an intuitive, strongly held but incorrect assumption

a to je zbog toga što imamo intuitivnu, ustaljenu,

ali netočnu pretpostavku koja nas sprečava da vidimo odgovor.

that has prevented us from seeing the answer.

There's something we believe that just, it's obvious, but it's wrong.

Postoji nešto u što vjerujemo, što je očito, ali je krivo.

Now, there's a history of this in science and before I tell you what it is,

Postoji povijest toga u znanosti i prije nego što vam kažem o čemu se radi,

I'll tell you about the history of it in science.

reći ću vam nešto o povijesti toga u znanosti.

Look at other scientific revolutions --

Pogledajte neke druge znanstvene revolucije,

the solar system, that's Copernicus,

primjerice Kopernikov sunčev sustav,

Darwin's evolution, and tectonic plates, that's Wegener.

Darwinovu teoriju evolucije, Wagnerove tektonske ploče.

Sve one imaju puno toga zajedničkog s teorijom mozga.

They all have a lot in common with brain science.

First, they had a lot of unexplained data. A lot of it.

Prvo, imale su puno neobjašnjenih podataka. Hrpe njih.

But it got more manageable once they had a theory.

Ali podaci su postali razumljiviji kada se razvila teorija.

The best minds were stumped -- really smart people.

Najpametniji su ljudi bili zbunjeni, stvarno, stvarno pametni ljudi.

We're not smarter now than they were then;

Mi sada nismo ništa pametniji od njih tada.

it just turns out it's really hard to think of things,

Ispada da je vrlo teško razmišljati o stvarima,

but once you've thought of them, it's easy to understand.

ali kada jednom o njima promislite, nekako ih jednostavnije razumijete.

My daughters understood these three theories,

Moje su kćeri razumijele ove tri teorije

u njihovim temeljnim okvirima do trenutka kada su stigle u vrtić.

in their basic framework, in kindergarten.

It's not that hard -- here's the apple, here's the orange,

I nije to tako teško, ovo je jabuka, ovo je narandža

the Earth goes around, that kind of stuff.

i Zemlja kruži oko Sunca, takve stvari.

Another thing is the answer was there all along,

I na kraju, odgovor je uvijek bio ovdje,

but we kind of ignored it because of this obvious thing.

ali smo ga ignorirali zbog te očite stvari, i u tome je stvar.

It was an intuitive, strongly held belief that was wrong.

Bilo je to intuitivno, čvrsto držano uvjerenje koje je krivo.

In the case of the solar system,

U slučaju solarnog sustava, zamisao da se Zemlja vrti

the idea that the Earth is spinning,

the surface is going a thousand miles an hour,

i da se površina Zemlje kreće tisuću milja na sat

and it's going through the solar system at a million miles an hour --

te da se Zemlja kreće sunčevim sustavom milijun milja na sat.

this is lunacy; we all know the Earth isn't moving.

To je ludo. Svi znamo da se Zemlja ne kreće.

Do you feel like you're moving a thousand miles an hour?

Imate li osjećaj da se krećete tisuću milja na sat?

Naravno da ne. I netko tko bi rekao

If you said Earth was spinning around in space and was huge --

da se Zemlja vrti u svemiru koji je ogroman,

they would lock you up, that's what they did back then.

zatvorili bi ga. Prije su to i radili.

(Smijeh)

So it was intuitive and obvious. Now, what about evolution?

Bilo je intuitivno i očito. Što je s evolucijom?

Evolution, same thing.

Ista stvar. Naučili smo djecu - u Bibliji piše

We taught our kids the Bible says God created all these species,

da je Bog stvorio sve te vrste životinja, mačke su mačke, psi su psi,

cats are cats; dogs are dogs; people are people; plants are plants;

biljke su biljke, takve se stvari ne mijenjaju.

they don't change.

Noa ih je stavio u arku tim redoslijedom, bla, bla, bla. Činjenica je da

Noah put them on the ark in that order, blah, blah.

The fact is, if you believe in evolution, we all have a common ancestor.

ako vjerujete u evoluciju tada svi imamo zajedničkog pretka

We all have a common ancestor with the plant in the lobby!

i svi smo povezani zajedničkim pretkom s biljkom u predvorju.

This is what evolution tells us. And it's true. It's kind of unbelievable.

Evolucija nam to kaže. I to je istina. Nevjerojatno je.

And the same thing about tectonic plates.

Isto je i s tektonskim pločama.

All the mountains and the continents

Sve planine i kontinenti na neki način plutaju

are kind of floating around on top of the Earth.

na Zemlji, znate? Nema to nikakvog smisla.

It doesn't make any sense.

So what is the intuitive, but incorrect assumption,

Koja je to intuitivna, ali netočna pretpostavka

that's kept us from understanding brains?

koja nas priječi u razumijevanju mozga?

I'll tell you. It'll seem obvious that it's correct. That's the point.

Sada ću vam je reći i činit će se očitim kako je to ono točno,

i u tome je stvar, zar ne? Nakon toga ću vam morati dokazati

Then I'll make an argument why you're incorrect on the other assumption.

zašto ste u krivu što se tiče druge pretpostavke.

The intuitive but obvious thing is:

Intuitivno, ali očito, je da je inteligencija

somehow, intelligence is defined by behavior;

određena ponašanjem;

we're intelligent because of how we do things

inteligentni smo zbog načina na koji radim stvari

and how we behave intelligently.

i inteligentnog ponašanja – reći ću vam kako je takvo mišljenje pogrešno.

And I'm going to tell you that's wrong.

Intelligence is defined by prediction.

Inteligencija je određena predviđanjem.

I'm going to work you through this in a few slides,

Proći ćemo kroz to pomoću nekoliko dijapozitiva,

and give you an example of what this means.

dat ću vam primjere što to točno znači. Ovo je sustav.

Here's a system.

Engineers and scientists like to look at systems like this.

Inženjeri vole promatrati sustav na ovaj način. Znanstvenici na ovaj.

They say, we have a thing in a box. We have its inputs and outputs.

Oni kažu – imamo stvar u kvadratu i imamo njezine unose i iznose.

The AI people said, the thing in the box is a programmable computer,

Ljudi koji se bave umjetnom inteligencijom rekoše „stvar u kvadratu je programirljivo računalo

because it's equivalent to a brain.

jer je to ekvivalent mozgu. Programirat ćemo neke unose

We'll feed it some inputs and get it to do something, have some behavior.

i učinit ćemo ga da nešto radi, da se nekako ponaša“.

Alan Turing je odredio Turingov test koji, u biti, tvrdi

Alan Turing defined the Turing test, which essentially says,

da ćemo znati je li nešto inteligentno ako se ponaša isto kao čovjek.

we'll know if something's intelligent if it behaves identical to a human --

To je bihevioralni metrični sustav inteligencije

a behavioral metric of what intelligence is

that has stuck in our minds for a long time.

i to je ostalo dugo vremena u našem načinu razmišljanja.

Reality, though -- I call it real intelligence.

Ja to zovem stvarna inteligencija.

Real intelligence is built on something else.

Stvarna se inteligencija temelji na nečem drugom.

We experience the world through a sequence of patterns,

Mi svijet doživljavamo kroz niz obrazaca koje zatim pohranimo

and we store them, and we recall them.

i kojih se prisjetimo. Kada ih se prisjetimo, uspoređujemo ih

When we recall them, we match them up against reality,

sa stvarnošću i putem njih neprestano predviđamo.

and we're making predictions all the time.

It's an internal metric; there's an internal metric about us,

To je vječni metrični sustav. U nama je takav metrični sustav koji nam govori

saying, do we understand the world, am I making predictions, and so on.

razumijemo li svijet? Predviđam li? I tako dalje.

You're all being intelligent now, but you're not doing anything.

Svi ste sada inteligentni bez da išta radite.

Ne znam, možda se svrbite ili kopate nos,

Maybe you're scratching yourself, but you're not doing anything.

ali upravo sada ne radite ništa,

But you're being intelligent; you're understanding what I'm saying.

ali jeste inteligentni, razumijete što vam sada govorim.

Because you're intelligent and you speak English,

Zbog toga što ste inteligentni i govorite engleski

you know the word at the end of this

znate koja je riječ na kraju ove -- (Tišina)

rečenice.

sentence.

The word came to you; you make these predictions all the time.

Sjetili ste se riječi i takva predviđanja radite neprestano.

What I'm saying is,

Ono što tvrdim je

the internal prediction is the output in the neocortex,

da su takva neprestana predviđanja „output“ neokorteksa.

Ta predviđanja nekako dovode do inteligentnog ponašanja.

and somehow, prediction leads to intelligent behavior.

Here's how that happens:

Evo kako se to događa. Počnimo s neinteligentnim mozgom.

Let's start with a non-intelligent brain.

Tvrdit ćemo ovo s neinteligentnim mozgom, starim mozgom,

I'll argue a non-intelligent brain, we'll call it an old brain.

And we'll say it's a non-mammal, like a reptile,

koji nije poput mozga sisavaca, već je reptilski mozak,

say, an alligator; we have an alligator.

aligatorski, imamo mozak aligatora.

And the alligator has some very sophisticated senses.

Aligator ima vrlo sofisticirana osjetila.

It's got good eyes and ears and touch senses and so on,

Ima vrlo dobar vid i sluh, osjetilo dodira i tako dalje,

a mouth and a nose.

usta i nos. Ima složen način ponašanja.

It has very complex behavior.

It can run and hide. It has fears and emotions. It can eat you.

Može trčati i može se sakriti. Ima strahove i osjećaje. Može vas pojesti.

It can attack. It can do all kinds of stuff.

Može napasti. Može svašta raditi.

But we don't consider the alligator very intelligent,

Ali aligatora ne smatramo vrlo inteligentnim, barem ne na ljudski način.

not in a human sort of way.

But it has all this complex behavior already.

Ali već posjeduje svo to komplicirano ponašanje.

Now in evolution, what happened?

Što se dogodilo tijekom evolucije?

First thing that happened in evolution with mammals

Prvo što se dogodilo tijekom evolucije kod sisavaca

is we started to develop a thing called the neocortex.

je to da smo razvili nešto što se zove neokorteks.

I'm going to represent the neocortex by this box on top of the old brain.

Dočarat ću neokorteks

pomoću ovog kvadrata koji se nalazi iznad starog mozga.

Neocortex means "new layer." It's a new layer on top of your brain.

Neokorteks znači novi sloj. To je novi sloj na našem mozgu.

It's the wrinkly thing on the top of your head

Ako ne znate, to je ono smežurano na vrhu vašeg mozga,

that got wrinkly because it got shoved in there and doesn't fit.

smežurano je tako jer je ugurano unutra, a ne stane tamo.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

Literally, it's about the size of a table napkin

Ne, stvarno je to to. Približno je veličine salvete.

and doesn't fit, so it's wrinkly.

Kako ne stane, sav je zgužvan. Pogledajte kako sam nacrtao ovo.

Now, look at how I've drawn this.

The old brain is still there.

Stari je mozak još uvijek ondje. Još uvijek imate aligatorski mozak.

You still have that alligator brain. You do. It's your emotional brain.

Da, imate. To je vaš emocionalan mozak.

It's all those gut reactions you have.

On je sve one stvari, sve one intuitivne reakcije koje imate.

On top of it, we have this memory system called the neocortex.

Povrh toga imamo memorijski sustav koji se zove neokorteks.

And the memory system is sitting over the sensory part of the brain.

Memorijski se dio nalazi iznad osjetilnog dijela mozga.

So as the sensory input comes in and feeds from the old brain,

Osjetilni unos dolazi i dobiva informacije od starog mozga

it also goes up into the neocortex.

te odlazi u neokorteks. Neokorteks samo pamti.

And the neocortex is just memorizing.

It's sitting there saying, I'm going to memorize all the things going on:

Sjedi ondje i misli „zapamtit ću sve što se događa,

where I've been, people I've seen, things I've heard, and so on.

gdje sam bio, ljude koje sam vidio, stvari koje sam čuo i tako dalje“.

And in the future, when it sees something similar to that again,

I kada u budućnosti naiđe na nešto slično

in a similar environment, or the exact same environment,

u sličnom okruženju ili posve istom okruženju,

it'll start playing it back: "Oh, I've been here before,"

prisjetit će se starog doživljaja. Počet će ga ponovno doživljavati.

„Oh, već sam bio ovdje. I kada si prošli put bio ovdje

and when you were here before, this happened next.

sljedeće se dogodilo ovo“. Omogućuje vam predviđanje budućnosti.

It allows you to predict the future.

It literally feeds back the signals into your brain;

Doslovno vraća signale u mozak

they'll let you see what's going to happen next,

i omogućuje da vidite ono što će se sljedeće dogoditi,

will let you hear the word "sentence" before I said it.

omogućit će da čujete riječ „rečenica“ prije nego što vam je kažem.

And it's this feeding back into the old brain

Upravo ovo vraćanje podataka u stari mozak

that will allow you to make more intelligent decisions.

je ono što vam omogućuje da donosite vrlo inteligentne odluke.

This is the most important slide of my talk, so I'll dwell on it a little.

Ovo je najvažniji dijapozitiv mog govora, pa ću se malo zadržati na njemu.

And all the time you say, "Oh, I can predict things,"

Cijelo si vrijeme govorite „super, mogu predviđati stvari“.

so if you're a rat and you go through a maze, and you learn the maze,

Da ste štakor i da prolazite kroz labirint, a zatim zapamtite labirint,

next time you're in one, you have the same behavior.

sljedeći put kada ste u labirintu imate isti obrazac ponašanja,

But suddenly, you're smarter; you say, "I recognize this maze,

ali ste odjednom pametniji

jer mislite „pa ja prepoznajem ovaj labirint, znam kuda trebam ići.

I know which way to go; I've been here before; I can envision the future."

Već sam bio ovdje, mogu predočiti budućnost“. To radi neokorteks.

That's what it's doing.

This is true for all mammals --

Kod ljudi, usput, i kod svih sisavaca,

in humans, it got a lot worse.

postalo je malo gore.

Humans actually developed the front of the neocortex,

Ljudi su razvili prednji dio neokorteksa

called the anterior part of the neocortex.

koji se zove anteriorni dio neokorteksa. Priroda se malo našalila.

And nature did a little trick.

It copied the posterior, the back part, which is sensory,

Kopirala je posteriorni dio, stražnji dio, koji je osjetilni,

and put it in the front.

i stavila ga naprijed.

Humans uniquely have the same mechanism on the front,

Ljudi su jedinstveni jer imaju isti mehanizam sprijeda,

but we use it for motor control.

ali ga koristimo za motoriku.

So we're now able to do very sophisticated motor planning, things like that.

Zbog toga smo sposobni planirati sofisticirane motorne vještine i takve stvari.

I don't have time to explain, but to understand how a brain works,

Nemam se vremena baviti time, ali ako želite znati kako mozak funkcionira

you have to understand how the first part of the mammalian neocortex works,

morate razumjeti kako funkcionira prednji dio neokorteksa kod sisavaca,

način na koji pohranjujemo obrasce i predviđamo događaje.

how it is we store patterns and make predictions.

Evo nekoliko primjera predviđanja.

Let me give you a few examples of predictions.

I already said the word "sentence."

Već sam objasnio onaj primjer s riječi „rečenica“. U glazbi

In music, if you've heard a song before,

ako ste pjesmu čuli prije, ako ste čuli nekoga da te pjesme već izvodi,

when you hear it, the next note pops into your head already --

kada ih taj netko pjeva, sljedeća vam nota već padne na pamet --

you anticipate it.

anticipirate ju kako slušate pjesmu. Ako se radi o glazbenom albumu,

With an album, at the end of a song, the next song pops into your head.

na kraju jednog albuma sljedeća će vam pjesma pasti na pamet.

It happens all the time, you make predictions.

Takve se stvari neprestano događaju. Vi radite ova predviđanja.

I have this thing called the "altered door" thought experiment.

Razvio sam pokus koji se zove misaoni eksperiment promijenjenih vrata.

It says, you have a door at home;

On glasi, imate vrata kod kuće,

when you're here, I'm changing it --

a kada ste ovdje ja ću ih promijeniti, imam svog čovjeka

I've got a guy back at your house right now, moving the door around,

u vašoj kući koji miče vrata uokolo;

moving your doorknob over two inches.

uzet ću vašu kvaku i pomaknuti ju pet centimetara.

When you go home tonight, you'll put your hand out, reach for the doorknob,

Kada se navečer vratite kući i ispružite ruku,

posegnut ćete za kvakom i primijetiti

notice it's in the wrong spot

da je na krivom mjestu i reći ćete „hej, nešto se dogodilo“.

and go, "Whoa, something happened."

It may take a second, but something happened.

Možda će vam trebati sekunda kako biste shvatili što, ali nešto se dogodilo.

I can change your doorknob in other ways --

Mogao bih promijeniti vašu kvaku na druge načine.

make it larger, smaller, change its brass to silver, make it a lever,

Mogao bih ju povećati ili smanjiti, promijeniti iz mjedene u srebrnu,

mogao bih ju zamijeniti ručkom. Mogu promijeniti vaša vrata, obojati ih,

I can change the door; put colors on, put windows in.

staviti prozore na njih. Mogu promijeniti tisuću stvari na njima

I can change a thousand things about your door

i u dvije sekunde, koliko vam je potrebno za otvaranje vrata,

and in the two seconds you take to open it,

primijetit ćete da se nešto promijenilo.

you'll notice something has changed.

Now, the engineering approach, the AI approach to this,

Inženjerski pristup ovome, pristup umjetne inteligencije,

is to build a door database with all the door attributes.

je da se napravi baza podataka s vratima, koja će imati sve atribute vrata.

And as you go up to the door, we check them off one at time:

Kako se približavate vratima, atributi se eliminiraju jedan po jedan.

door, door, color ...

Vrata, vrata, vrata, boja, znate o čemu pričam.

We don't do that. Your brain doesn't do that.

Mi to ne radimo. Vaš mozak to ne radi.

Your brain is making constant predictions all the time

Ono što on radi je neprestano predviđa

about what will happen in your environment.

što će se sljedeće dogoditi u vašem okruženju.

As I put my hand on this table, I expect to feel it stop.

Kada stavim ruku na ovaj stol, očekujem da će ju stol zaustaviti.

When I walk, every step, if I missed it by an eighth of an inch,

Kada hodam, svaki korak, ako ga promašim za samo centimetar,

I'll know something has changed.

znat ću da se nešto promijenilo.

You're constantly making predictions about your environment.

Neprestano radite predviđanja o svojem okruženju.

I'll talk about vision, briefly.

Kratko ću govoriti o percepciji. Ovo je fotografija žene.

This is a picture of a woman.

When we look at people, our eyes saccade over two to three times a second.

Kada promatrate ljude vaše oči

prelaze preko njih dva do tri puta u sekundi.

We're not aware of it, but our eyes are always moving.

Vi toga niste svjesni, ali oči vam se neprestano miču.

Kada gledate nečije lice

When we look at a face, we typically go from eye to eye to nose to mouth.

obično se krećete od oka do oka do oka do nosa do usta.

When your eye moves from eye to eye,

Kada se vaše oko kreće od oka do oka,

if there was something else there like a nose,

ako bi tamo bilo nešto drugo, poput nosa,

you'd see a nose where an eye is supposed to be and go, "Oh, shit!"

vidjeli biste nos na mjestu predviđenom za oko,

ostali biste iznenađeni --

(Laughter)

"There's something wrong about this person."

(Smijeh)

Nešto nije u redu s ovom osobom.

That's because you're making a prediction.

To je zbog toga što predviđate.

It's not like you just look over and say, "What am I seeing? A nose? OK."

Nije da samo pogledate prema tamo i kažete „što sada gledam“?

Nos, to je u redu. Ne, imate očekivanje onoga što ćete vidjeti.

No, you have an expectation of what you're going to see.

(Smijeh)

Every single moment.

Svaki trenutak. I na kraju, razmislimo o tome kako mjerimo inteligenciju.

And finally, let's think about how we test intelligence.

We test it by prediction: What is the next word in this ...?

Mjerimo ju putem predviđanja. Koja je sljedeća riječ?

This is to this as this is to this. What is the next number in this sentence?

Ovo je prema ovome kao ovo prema ovome. Koji je sljedeći broj u ovoj rečenici?

Here's three visions of an object. What's the fourth one?

Ovo su tri vida objekta.

Što je ovaj četvrti? Tako testiramo inteligenciju. Sve je u predviđanju.

That's how we test it. It's all about prediction.

So what is the recipe for brain theory?

Koji je recept za teoriju mozga?

First of all, we have to have the right framework.

Prije svega, potreban nam je dobar okvir.

And the framework is a memory framework,

To je memorijski okvir,

not a computational or behavior framework,

ne računalni ili bihevioralni okvir. Memorijski okvir.

it's a memory framework.

How do you store and recall these sequences of patterns?

Način na koji pohranjujete i na koji se prisjećate ovih scena i obrazaca? Radi se o prostorno-vremenskim obrascima.

It's spatiotemporal patterns.

Then, if in that framework, you take a bunch of theoreticians --

Zatim, u tu teoriju okvira stavite hrpu teoretičara.

biologists generally are not good theoreticians.

Biolozi uglavnom nisu dobri teoretičari.

To nije uvijek istina, ali općenito govoreći, ne postoji dobra povijest teorije u biologiji.

Not always, but generally, there's not a good history of theory in biology.

I've found the best people to work with are physicists,

Otkrio sam kako je najbolje raditi s fizičarima,

engineers and mathematicians,

inženjerima i matematičarima jer su skloni algoritmičnom razmišljanju.

who tend to think algorithmically.

Then they have to learn the anatomy and the physiology.

Zatim moraju naučiti anatomiju i fiziologiju.

You have to make these theories very realistic in anatomical terms.

Ove teorije moraju biti iznimno realistične u anatomskom smislu.

Svatko tko vam kaže svoju teoriju o tome kako mozak funkcionira,

Anyone who tells you their theory about how the brain works

and doesn't tell you exactly how it's working

ali ne i kako sve točno radi u mozgu

and how the wiring works --

i kako veze funkcioniraju u mozgu, ta osoba zapravo ne priča o teoriji.

it's not a theory.

And that's what we do at the Redwood Neuroscience Institute.

Ovime se bavimo u neuroznanstvenom inistitutu Redwood.

I'd love to tell you we're making fantastic progress in this thing,

Volio bih imati više vremena kako bih vam ispričao kakav smo izvanredni napredak postigli u ovom polju,

and I expect to be back on this stage sometime in the not too distant future,

očekujem da ću se vratiti na ovu pozornicu,

možda neki drugi put u ne tako dalekoj budućnosti i tada ću vam ispričati o tome.

to tell you about it.

I'm really excited; this is not going to take 50 years.

Vrlo sam uzbuđen. Ovo neće trajati niti 50 godina.

What will brain theory look like?

Kako će izgledati teorija o mozgu?

First of all, it's going to be about memory.

Prije svega, bit će to teorija o memoriji.

Not like computer memory -- not at all like computer memory.

Ne poput računalne memorije. Ništa nalik na računalnu memoriju,

It's very different.

već vrlo vrlo drugačije. Radi se o memoriji ovakvih

It's a memory of very high-dimensional patterns,

visoko-dimenzijonalnih obrazaca, poput onoga što vidite očima.

like the things that come from your eyes.

It's also memory of sequences:

Radi se o memoriji slijedova.

you cannot learn or recall anything outside of a sequence.

Ne možete naučiti nešto niti se prisjetiti nečega izvan slijeda.

A song must be heard in sequence over time,

Pjesma se mora čuti u slijedu tijekom vremena

and you must play it back in sequence over time.

i morate ju ponovno pustiti u slijedu tijekom vremena.

And these sequences are auto-associatively recalled,

Slijedova se auto-asocijativno prisjećamo; ako nešto vidimo,

so if I see something, I hear something, it reminds me of it,

nešto čujemo ili nas podsjeti na nešto, ono se automatski povrati.

and it plays back automatically.

It's an automatic playback.

To je automatski „playback“. Predviđanje budućih unosa je željeni iznos.

And prediction of future inputs is the desired output.

And as I said, the theory must be biologically accurate,

Kao što sam rekao, teorija mora biti biološki točna,

it must be testable and you must be able to build it.

mora se dati testirati i izgraditi.

If you don't build it, you don't understand it.

Ako ju ne možemo izgraditi, ne možemo ju niti razumijeti. Još jedan dijapozitiv.

One more slide.

What is this going to result in?

Što će biti rezultat toga? Hoćemo li stvarno stvarati inteligentne strojeve?

Are we going to really build intelligent machines?

Sasvim sigurno. Bit će drugačiji od onoga što ljudi zamišljaju.

Absolutely. And it's going to be different than people think.

Bez sumnje će se to dogoditi.

No doubt that it's going to happen, in my mind.

First of all, we're going to build this stuff out of silicon.

Bit će izgrađen od silikona.

The same techniques we use to build silicon computer memories,

Istu tehniku koju koristimo za silikonske računalne memorije

we can use here.

možemo iskoristiti i ovdje.

But they're very different types of memories.

No, to su sasvim drugačiji oblici memorije.

And we'll attach these memories to sensors,

Te ćemo memorije spojiti sa senzorima,

and the sensors will experience real-live, real-world data,

a oni će doživljavati stvarne podatke,

and learn about their environment.

i tako će učiti o svom okruženju.

Now, it's very unlikely the first things you'll see are like robots.

Malo je vjerojatno da će prvi takvi strojevi nalikovati robotima.

Not that robots aren't useful; people can build robots.

Ne da roboti nisu korisni i ljudi mogu graditi robote.

But the robotics part is the hardest part. That's old brain. That's really hard.

Ali robotika je najteži dio. To je stari mozak. To je stvarno teško.

The new brain is easier than the old brain.

Zapravo, novi je mozak na neki način jednostavniji od starog mozga.

So first we'll do things that don't require a lot of robotics.

Prvo ćemo napraviti stvari za koje nije potrebno puno robotike.

So you're not going to see C-3PO.

Nećete vidjeti C-3PO-a.

You're going to see things more like intelligent cars

Prije ćete vidjeti nešto poput inteligentnih automobila

that really understand what traffic is, what driving is

koji stvarno razumiju što je promet i što je vožnja

and have learned that cars with the blinkers on for half a minute

i koji će znati da određeni automobili, koji imaju pola minute uključen pokazivač smjera,

probably aren't going to turn.

vrlo vjerojatno neće skrenuti, takve stvari.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

We can also do intelligent security systems.

Možemo napraviti inteligentne sustave sigurnosti.

Anytime we're basically using our brain but not doing a lot of mechanics --

Bavit ćemo se gotovo bilo kojim područjem u kojem koristimo mozak, ali ne i puno mehanike.

those are the things that will happen first.

Takve će se stvari prve dogoditi.

But ultimately, the world's the limit.

Ali, na kraju krajeva, svijet je granica.

I don't know how this will turn out.

Ne znam kako će to završiti.

I know a lot of people who invented the microprocessor.

Znam mnogo ljudi koji su izumili mikroprocesor

And if you talk to them,

i kada razgovarate s njima znali su da rade nešto vrlo značajno,

they knew what they were doing was really significant,

but they didn't really know what was going to happen.

ali zapravo nisu znali što će se dogoditi.

They couldn't anticipate cell phones and the Internet

Nisu mogli anticipirati mobitele, Internet i sve te stvari.

and all this kind of stuff.

They just knew like, "We're going to build calculators

Znali su da će napraviti kalkulatore

and traffic-light controllers.

i kontrole semafora. Bit će to velika stvar.

But it's going to be big!"

In the same way, brain science and these memories

Ovo je nalik na znanost o mozgu i ove će memorije

are going to be a very fundamental technology,

biti vrlo temeljna tehnologija koja će dovesti

and it will lead to unbelievable changes in the next 100 years.

do nevjerojatnih promjena u sljedećih 100 godina.

And I'm most excited about how we're going to use them in science.

Vrlo sam uzbuđen zbog načina na koji će se korisiti u znanosti.

So I think that's all my time -- I'm over,

Mislim da je ovo kraj moga vremena, premašio sam ga, ovdje ću završiti

and I'm going to end my talk right there.

sa svojim govorom.