What vaccinating vampire bats can teach us about pandemics | Daniel Streicker

Translator: Noelia Correa Gómez Reviewer: Serv. de Norm. Lingüística U. de Santiago de Compostela

The story that I'm going to tell you today,

A historia que vou contar hoxe,

for me, began back in 2006.

para min, comezou no 2006.

That was when I first heard about an outbreak of mysterious illness

Foi a primeira vez que oín falar sobre o brote dunha enfermidade misteriosa

that was happening in the Amazon rainforest of Peru.

que se estaba producindo na selva amazónica do Perú.

The people that were getting sick from this illness,

As persoas que estaban enfermando

they had horrifying symptoms, nightmarish.

tiñan síntomas horribles, de pesadelo.

They had unbelievable headaches,

Tiñan dores de cabeza incribles

they couldn't eat or drink.

e non podían comer nin beber.

Some of them were even hallucinating --

Algunhas incluso tiñan alucinacións,

confused and aggressive.

confusas e agresivas.

The most tragic part of all

O máis tráxico de todo

was that many of the victims were children.

era que moitas das vítimas eran nenos.

And of all of those that got sick,

E de todas as que enfermaron,

none survived.

ningunha sobreviviu.

It turned out that what was killing people was a virus,

Resultou que o que estaba matando esa xente era un virus,

but it wasn't Ebola, it wasn't Zika,

pero non era o ébola, non era o virus do Zika,

it wasn't even some new virus never before seen by science.

nin sequera era un novo virus que a ciencia nunca vira.

These people were dying of an ancient killer,

Estas persoas morrían por culpa dun vello asasino,

one that we've known about for centuries.

un que coñecemos desde hai séculos.

They were dying of rabies.

Estaban morrendo pola rabia.

And what all of them had in common was that as they slept,

E o que todas tiñan en común era que mentres durmían,

they'd all been bitten by the only mammal that lives exclusively on a diet of blood:

todas foran mordidas polo único mamífero que se mantén exclusivamente de sangue:

the vampire bat.

o morcego vampiro.

These sorts of outbreaks that jump from bats into people,

Este tipo de brotes que saltan dos morcegos á xente

they've become more and more common in the last couple of decades.

volvéronse cada vez máis comúns nas últimas décadas.

In 2003, it was SARS.

En 2003 foi a SARS.

It showed up in Chinese animal markets and spread globally.

Apareceu nos mercados chineses de animais e propagouse mundialmente.

That virus, like the one from Peru, was eventually traced back to bats,

A orixe deste virus, como a do Perú, rastrexouse ata chegar aos morcegos,

which have probably harbored it, undetected, for centuries.

que probablemente o tiveran durante séculos sen que fora detectado.

Then, 10 years later, we see Ebola showing up in West Africa,

10 anos máis tarde, vemos que o ébola aparece en África Occidental

and that surprised just about everybody

e que sorprende a case todo o mundo

because, according to the science at the time,

porque, segundo o coñecemento do momento,

Ebola wasn't really supposed to be in West Africa.

supoñíase que o ébola non debía estar en África Occidental.

That ended up causing the largest and most widespread Ebola outbreak

Aquilo acabou causando

o brote de ébola máis grande e máis estendido da historia.

in history.

So there's a disturbing trend here, right?

Hai unha tendencia preocupante, non é certo?

Deadly viruses are appearing in places where we can't really expect them,

Os virus mortais están aparecendo en lugares onde non podemos esperalos

and as a global health community,

e, como comunidade de saúde mundial, non estamos preparados.

we're caught on our heels.

We're constantly chasing after the next viral emergency

Perseguimos continuamente a seguinte emerxencia viral

in this perpetual cycle,

neste ciclo infinito,

always trying to extinguish epidemics after they've already started.

sempre intentando extinguir as epidemias despois de que xa comezaron.

So with new diseases appearing every year,

Con novas enfermidades que aparecen cada ano,

now is really the time

é o momento no que temos

that we need to start thinking about what we can do about it.

que empezar a pensar sobre o que podemos facer.

If we just wait for the next Ebola to happen,

Se esperamos a que apareza o próximo ébola,

we might not be so lucky next time.

pode que a próxima vez non teñamos tanta sorte.

We might face a different virus,

Pode que afrontemos un virus diferente, un que sexa máis mortal,

one that's more deadly,

one that spreads better among people,

un que se propague mellor entre a xente

or maybe one that just completely outwits our vaccines,

ou pode que un ao que non lle afecten as vacinas,

leaving us defenseless.

que nos deixe indefensos.

So can we anticipate pandemics?

Entón, podemos previr as pandemias?

Can we stop them?

Podemos paralas?

Those are really hard questions to answer,

Estas son preguntas moi difíciles de responder,

and the reason is that the pandemics --

e o motivo é que as pandemias,

the ones that spread globally,

as que se propagan a nivel mundial,

the ones that we really want to anticipate --

as que queremos previr,

they're actually really rare events.

en realidade son eventos moi raros.

And for us as a species that is a good thing --

E para nós como especie é algo bo,

that's why we're all here.

é a razón pola que estamos aquí.

But from a scientific standpoint, it's a little bit of a problem.

Pero desde o punto de vista científico é un pequeno problema.

That's because if something happens just once or twice,

O motivo é que se algo só sucede unha ou dúas veces,

that's really not enough to find any patterns.

non é suficiente para atopar un padrón.

Patterns that could tell us when or where the next pandemic might strike.

Padróns que poden dicirnos onde e cando se producirá a seguinte pandemia.

So what do we do?

Entón, que facemos?

Well, I think one of the solutions we may have is to study some viruses

Penso que unha das solucións que poderiamos ter é estudar algúns virus

that routinely jump from wild animals into people,

que habitualmente saltan de animais salvaxes ás persoas,

or into our pets, or our livestock,

ou ás mascotas, ou ao gando,

even if they're not the same viruses

mesmo se non son os mesmos virus

that we think are going to cause pandemics.

que pensamos que van causar pandemias.

If we can use those everyday killer viruses

Se podemos usar eses virus asasinos de sempre

to work out some of the patterns

para descubrir algúns dos padróns

of what drives that initial, crucial jump from one species to the next,

que levan a ese salto inicial decisivo dunha especie á seguinte

and, potentially, how we might stop it,

e, potencialmente, saber como podemos paralo,

then we're going to end up better prepared

entón estaremos mellor preparados

for those viruses that jump between species more rarely

para os virus que saltan entre especies con menor frecuencia

but pose a greater threat of pandemics.

pero que supoñen unha maior ameaza de pandemias.

Now, rabies, as terrible as it is,

A rabia, aínda que é terrible,

turns out to be a pretty nice virus in this case.

resulta ser un virus bastante simpático neste caso.

You see, rabies is a scary, deadly virus.

A rabia é un virus mortal aterrecedor.

It has 100 percent fatality.

Ten un 100 % de mortalidade,

That means if you get infected with rabies and you don't get treated early,

o que significa que se estás infectado coa rabia e non te tratan pronto,

there's nothing that can be done.

non hai nada que facer.

There is no cure.

Non hai cura.

You will die.

Morrerás.

And rabies is not just a problem of the past either.

E a rabia tampouco é un problema do pasado.

Even today, rabies still kills 50 to 60,000 people every year.

Incluso hoxe, a rabia aínda mata entre 50 e 60 000 persoas cada ano.

Just put that number in some perspective.

Poñede ese número en perspectiva.

Imagine the whole West African Ebola outbreak --

Imaxinade o brote de ébola de África Occidental,

about two-and-a-half years;

é dicir, sobre dous anos e medio.

you condense all the people that died in that outbreak

Concentrades toda a xente que morreu naquel brote

into just a single year.

nun só ano.

That's pretty bad.

É bastante malo.

But then, you multiply it by four,

Pero se o multiplicades por catro,

and that's what happens with rabies every single year.

é o que sucede cada ano coa rabia.

So what sets rabies apart from a virus like Ebola

O que diferencia a rabia dun virus como o ébola

is that when people get it,

é que cando a xente está infectada,

they tend not to spread it onward.

non adoita propagala.

That means that every single time a person gets rabies,

Isto significa que cada vez que unha persoa contrae a rabia,

it's because they were bitten by a rabid animal,

é porque foi mordida por un animal enfermo

and usually, that's a dog or a bat.

e normalmente é un can ou un morcego.

But it also means that those jumps between species,

Pero tamén significa que eses saltos entre especies,

which are so important to understand, but so rare for most viruses,

que son tan importantes de entender e que son tan raros na maioría dos virus,

for rabies, they're actually happening by the thousands.

están sucedendo por milleiros na rabia.

So in a way, rabies is almost like the fruit fly

Así que, en certo xeito, a rabia é como a mosca da froita

or the lab mouse of deadly viruses.

ou o rato de laboratorio dos virus mortais.

This is a virus that we can use and study to find patterns

Este é un virus que podemos usar e estudar para atopar padróns

and potentially test out new solutions.

e potencialmente probar novas solucións.

And so, when I first heard about that outbreak of rabies

Polo tanto, a primeira vez que oín falar do brote de rabia

in the Peruvian Amazon,

na Amazonia peruana,

it struck me as something potentially powerful

pareceume que era potencialmente poderoso

because this was a virus that was jumping from bats into other animals

porque era un virus que saltaba de morcegos a outros animais

often enough that we might be able to anticipate it ...

tan a miúdo que quizais poderiamos ser capaces de previlo...

Maybe even stop it.

E incluso paralo.

So as a first-year graduate student

Como estudante posgraduado de primeiro ano

with a vague memory of my high school Spanish class,

cun vago recordo das clases de español do instituto,

I jumped onto a plane and flew off to Peru,

subin a un avión e fun ata O Perú

looking for vampire bats.

para buscar os morcegos vampiros.

And the first couple of years of this project were really tough.

Os primeiros anos deste proxecto foron moi duros.

I had no shortage of ambitious plans to rid Latin America of rabies,

Non me faltaban plans ambiciosos para erradicar a rabia en América Latina,

but at the same time,

pero ao mesmo tempo,

there seemed to be an equally endless supply of mudslides and flat tires,

parecía haber unha cantidade infinita de aludes de barro e rodas picadas,

power outages, stomach bugs all stopping me.

cortes de electricidade e gastroenterites, todos parándome.

But that was kind of par for the course,

Pero aquilo era o normal

working in South America,

ao traballar en América do Sur,

and to me, it was part of the adventure.

e para min, era parte da aventura.

But what kept me going

Pero o que fixo que continuara

was the knowledge that for the first time,

foi saber que por primeira vez,

the work that I was doing might actually have some real impact

o traballo que estaba facendo podería ter un impacto real

on people's lives in the short term.

na vida da xente a curto prazo.

And that struck me the most

E foi o que máis me afectou

when we actually went out to the Amazon

cando fomos á Amazonia

and were trying to catch vampire bats.

e intentabamos atrapar morcegos vampiros.

You see, all we had to do was show up at a village and ask around.

Todo o que tiñamos que facer era aparecer nunha aldea e preguntar.

"Who's been getting bitten by a bat lately?"

"A quen lle mordeu un morcego ultimamente?"

And people raised their hands,

E a xente levantaba as mans,

because in these communities,

porque nesas comunidades,

getting bitten by a bat is an everyday occurrence,

que te morda un morcego é un suceso diario,

happens every day.

pasa todos os días.

And so all we had to do was go to the right house,

Así que todo o que tiñamos que facer era ir á casa correcta,

open up a net

tender unha rede

and show up at night,

e aparecer pola noite,

and wait until the bats tried to fly in and feed on human blood.

e esperar ata que os morcegos intentaran entrar e alimentarse de sangue humano.

So to me, seeing a child with a bite wound on his head or blood stains on his sheets,

Para min, ver un neno cunha mordedura na cabeza ou manchas de sangue nas sabas,

that was more than enough motivation

era máis que suficiente motivación

to get past whatever logistical or physical headache

para superar calquera dor de cabeza

I happened to be feeling on that day.

que puidera ter aquel día.

Since we were working all night long, though,

Como estabamos traballando toda a noite,

I had plenty of time to think about how I might actually solve this problem,

tiña moito tempo para pensar en como podería resolver este problema,

and it stood out to me that there were two burning questions.

e deime conta de que había dúas preguntas candentes.

The first was that we know that people are bitten all the time,

A primeira era que sabemos que a xente é mordida decontino,

but rabies outbreaks aren't happening all the time --

pero os brotes de rabia non se producen decontino.

every couple of years, maybe even every decade,

Cada dous anos, quizais mesmo cada década,

you get a rabies outbreak.

hai un brote de rabia.

So if we could somehow anticipate when and where the next outbreak would be,

Se dalgunha maneira puidésemos prever cando e onde sería o próximo brote,

that would be a real opportunity,

sería unha oportunidade real,

meaning we could vaccinate people ahead of time,

poderiamos vacinar a xente con anticipación,

before anybody starts dying.

antes de que ninguén morrese.

But the other side of that coin

Pero a outra cara da moeda

is that vaccination is really just a Band-Aid.

é que a vacinación só é un parche.

It's kind of a strategy of damage control.

É unha estratexia de control de danos.

Of course it's lifesaving and important and we have to do it,

Por suposto, salva vidas, é importante e temos que facelo,

but at the end of the day,

pero ao final do día,

no matter how many cows, how many people we vaccinate,

non importa cantas vacas ou canta xente vacinemos,

we're still going to have exactly the same amount of rabies up there in the bats.

seguiremos tendo exactamente a mesma cantidade de rabia nos morcegos.

The actual risk of getting bitten hasn't changed at all.

O risco real de que te mordan non cambiou en absoluto.

So my second question was this:

A miña segunda pregunta era esta:

Could we somehow cut the virus off at its source?

Poderiamos dalgunha maneira erradicar o virus de raíz?

If we could somehow reduce the amount of rabies in the bats themselves,

Se puidésemos reducir a cantidade de rabia nos propios morcegos,

then that would be a real game changer.

sería algo revolucionario.

We'd been talking about shifting

Estariamos falando de cambiar

from a strategy of damage control to one based on prevention.

dunha estratexia de control de danos a unha baseada na prevención.

So, how do we begin to do that?

Como empezamos a facer iso?

Well, the first thing we needed to understand

O primeiro que necesitabamos entender

was how this virus actually works in its natural host --

era como funciona este virus no seu portador natural,

in the bats.

os morcegos.

And that is a tall order for any infectious disease,

E é un desafío para calquera enfermidade infecciosa,

particularly one in a reclusive species like bats,

particularmente nunha especie solitaria como os morcegos,

but we had to start somewhere.

pero tiñamos que empezar nalgún lugar.

So the way we started was looking at some historical data.

A maneira na que empezamos foi mirando algúns datos históricos.

When and where had these outbreaks happened in the past?

Cando e onde se produciron estes brotes no pasado?

And it became clear that rabies was a virus

E quedou claro que a rabia era un virus

that just had to be on the move.

que tiña que estar en movemento.

It couldn't sit still.

Non podía quedar quieto.

The virus might circulate in one area for a year, maybe two,

O virus pode circular nunha área un ano, quizais dous,

but unless it found a new group of bats to infect somewhere else,

pero se non atopa un novo grupo de morcegos que infectar,

it was pretty much bound to go extinct.

estaba destinado a extinguirse.

So with that, we solved one key part of the rabies transmission challenge.

Con iso, resolvemos unha parte clave do reto da transmisión da rabia.

We knew we were dealing with a virus on the move,

Sabiamos que tratabamos cun virus en movemento,

but we still couldn't say where it was going.

pero aínda non podíamos dicir a onde se dirixía.

Essentially, what I wanted was more of a Google Maps-style prediction,

Basicamente, o que quería era unha predición ao estilo de Google Maps,

which is, "What's the destination of the virus?

que é, "Cal é o destino do virus?

What's the route it's going to take to get there?

Cal é a ruta que vai tomar para chegar alí?

How fast will it move?"

A que velocidade se moverá?"

To do that, I turned to the genomes of rabies.

Para facelo, recorrín aos xenomas da rabia.

You see, rabies, like many other viruses, has a tiny little genome,

A rabia, coma outros virus, ten un xenoma diminuto,

but one that evolves really, really quickly.

pero que evoluciona moi rápido.

So quickly that by the time the virus has moved from one point to the next,

Tan rápido que, cando o virus xa teña pasado dun punto ao seguinte,

it's going to have picked up a couple of new mutations.

vai ter sufrido varias mutacións novas.

And so all we have to do is kind of connect the dots

E todo o que temos que facer é unir os puntos

across an evolutionary tree,

a través dunha árbore evolutiva,

and that's going to tell us where the virus has been in the past

e isto vainos dicir onde estivo o virus no pasado

and how it spread across the landscape.

e como se propaga pola paisaxe.

So, I went out and I collected cow brains,

Así que saín e recollín cerebros de vaca,

because that's where you get rabies viruses.

porque é onde se conseguen os virus da rabia.

And from genome sequences that we got from the viruses in those cow brains,

E a partir das secuencias de xenoma que conseguimos

dos virus deses cerebros de vaca,

I was able to work out

puiden calcular que é un virus que se propaga

that this is a virus that spreads between 10 and 20 miles each year.

entre 15 e 30 quilómetros cada ano.

OK, so that means we do now have the speed limit of the virus,

Iso significa que agora temos o límite de velocidade do virus,

but still missing that other key part of where is it going in the first place.

pero aínda falta a outra parte clave de a onde se dirixe en primeiro lugar.

For that, I needed to think a little bit more like a bat,

Para iso, necesitaba pensar un pouco máis coma un morcego,

because rabies is a virus --

porque a rabia é un virus,

it doesn't move by itself,

non se move por si mesmo,

it has to be moved around by its bat host,

ten que ser movido polo morcego portador,

so I needed to think about how far to fly and how often to fly.

así que necesitaba pensar ata que distancia

e con que frecuencia voaban.

My imagination didn't get me all that far with this

A miña imaxinación non me levou moi lonxe con isto

and neither did little digital trackers that we first tried putting on bats.

e tampouco os rastrexadores dixitais que intentamos pór nos morcegos.

We just couldn't get the information we needed.

Non podiamos conseguir a información que necesitabamos.

So instead, we turned to the mating patterns of bats.

No seu lugar, recorremos aos padróns de apareamento.

Podiamos ver algunhas partes do xenoma do morcego,

We could look at certain parts of the bat genome,

and they were telling us that some groups of bats were mating with each other

e indicaban que algúns grupos de morcegos se apareaban entre eles

and others were more isolated.

e outros estaban máis illados.

And the virus was basically following the trail laid out by the bat genomes.

E o virus estaba basicamente seguindo o rastro deixado polos xenomas do morcego.

Yet one of those trails stood out as being a little bit surprising --

Pero un dos rastros destacaba por ser un pouco sorprendente,

hard to believe.

difícil de crer.

That was one that seemed to cross straight over the Peruvian Andes,

Era un que parecía expandirse directamente sobre os Andes peruanos,

crossing from the Amazon to the Pacific coast,

cruzando desde a Amazonia ata a costa do Pacífico,

and that was kind of hard to believe,

o que era un pouco difícil de crer,

as I said,

como dixen, porque

because the Andes are really tall -- about 22,000 feet,

os Andes eran moi altos, arredor de 6700 metros,

and that's way too high for a vampire to fly.

e iso é demasiado alto para que un vampiro poida voar.

Yet --

Porén...

(Laughter)

(Risas)

when we looked more closely,

cando miramos máis de cerca,

we saw, in the northern part of Peru,

vimos, na parte norte do Perú,

a network of valley systems that was not quite too tall

unha rede de sistemas de vales que non era demasiado alta

for the bats on either side to be mating with each other.

para que os morcegos dos dous lados se apareasen entre eles.

And we looked a little bit more closely --

E miramos un pouco máis de cerca,

sure enough, there's rabies spreading through those valleys,

en efecto, a rabia propágase neses vales,

just about 10 miles each year.

arredor de 16 quilómetros cada ano.

Basically, exactly as our evolutionary models had predicated it would be.

Exactamente coma os nosos modelos evolutivos predixeron que sería.

What I didn't tell you

O que non vos dixen

is that that's actually kind of an important thing

é que iso é importante

because rabies had never been seen before on the western slopes of the Andes,

porque nunca se vira a rabia nas ladeiras occidentais dos Andes,

or on the whole Pacific coast of South America,

ou na costa do Pacífico de América do Sur,

so we were actually witnessing, in real time, a historical first invasion

Estabamos presenciando, en tempo real, unha primeira invasión histórica

into a pretty big part of South America,

nunha gran parte de América do Sur,

which raises the key question:

o que suscita a pregunta clave:

"What are we going to do about that?"

“Que imos facer sobre iso?”

Well, the obvious short-term thing we can do is tell people:

O que obviamente podemos facer a curto prazo é dicirlle á xente:

you need to vaccinate yourselves, vaccinate your animals;

necesitades vacinarvos e vacinar os vosos animais;

rabies is coming.

a rabia está chegando.

But in the longer term,

Pero a longo prazo,

it would be even more powerful if we could use that new information

sería aínda máis poderoso se puidésemos usar a nova información

to stop the virus from arriving altogether.

para parar por completo a chegada do virus.

Of course, we can't just tell bats, "Don't fly today,"

Por suposto, non podemos dicirlles aos morcegos, “Hoxe non voedes”,

but maybe we could stop the virus from hitching a ride along with the bat.

pero quizais poidamos evitar que o virus viaxe co morcego.

And that brings us to the key lesson that we have learned

E isto lévanos á lección clave que aprendemos

from rabies-management programs all around the world,

dos programas de xestión da rabia en todo o mundo,

whether it's dogs, foxes, skunks, raccoons,

xa sexan cans, raposos, mofetas ou mapaches,

North America, Africa, Europe.

América do Norte, África ou Europa.

It's that vaccinating the animal source is the only thing that stops rabies.

Vacinar a fonte animal é o único que para a rabia.

So, can we vaccinate bats?

Así que, podemos vacinar os morcegos?

You hear about vaccinating dogs and cats all the time,

Óese falar sobre vacinar cans e gatos todo o tempo,

but you don't hear too much about vaccinating bats.

pero non sobre vacinar os morcegos.

It might sound like a crazy question,

Pode soar coma unha pregunta de tolos,

but the good news is that we actually already have edible rabies vaccines

pero a boa noticia é que en realidade xa temos vacinas da rabia comestibles

that are specially designed for bats.

deseñadas especificamente para os morcegos.

And what's even better

E o que é aínda mellor

is that these vaccines can actually spread from bat to bat.

é que estas vacinas poden transmitirse de morcego a morcego.

All you have to do is smear it on one

Todo o que se ten que facer é pórlla a un morcego

and let the bats' habit of grooming each other

e deixar que o hábito de acicalarse entre eles

take care of the rest of the work for you.

se ocupe do resto do traballo.

So that means, at the very least,

Iso significa, polo menos,

we don't have to be out there vaccinating millions of bats one by one

que non temos que vacinar millóns de morcegos un a un

with tiny little syringes.

con xiringas diminutas.

(Laughter)

(Risas)

But just because we have that tool doesn't mean we know how to use it.

Pero só porque teñamos a ferramenta, non significa que saibamos como usala.

Now we have a whole laundry list of questions.

Agora temos unha lista interminable de preguntas.

How many bats do we need to vaccinate?

Cantos morcegos necesitamos vacinar?

What time of the year do we need to be vaccinating?

En que época do ano necesitamos vacinalos?

How many times a year do we need to be vaccinating?

Cantas veces ao ano necesitamos vacinalos?

All of these are questions that are really fundamental

Todas estas son preguntas fundamentais

to rolling out any sort of vaccination campaign,

para lanzar calquera tipo de campaña de vacinación,

but they're questions that we can't answer in the laboratory.

pero son preguntas que non podemos responder no laboratorio.

So instead, we're taking a slightly more colorful approach.

No seu lugar, estamos usando unha estratexia algo máis colorida.

We're using real wild bats, but fake vaccines.

Estamos usando morcegos salvaxes reais, pero vacinas falsas.

We use edible gels that make bat hair glow

Usamos xeles comestibles que fan que o pelo brille

and UV powders that spread between bats when they bump into each other,

e po fluorescente que se estende entre os morcegos cando se tocan,

and that's letting us study how well a real vaccine might spread

e iso permítenos estudar como se estendería unha vacina real

in these wild colonies of bats.

nestas colonias salvaxes de morcegos.

We're still in the earliest phases of this work,

Aínda estamos nas primeiras fases deste traballo,

but our results so far are incredibly encouraging.

pero os resultados ata o momento son alentadores.

They're suggesting that using the vaccines that we already have,

Indican que usando as vacinas que xa temos,

we could potentially drastically reduce the size of rabies outbreaks.

poderiamos reducir drasticamente o tamaño dos brotes de rabia.

And that matters, because as you remember,

E iso importa, porque se recordades,

rabies is a virus that always has to be on the move,

a rabia é un virus que sempre ten que estar en movemento,

and so every time we reduce the size of an outbreak,

e cada vez que reducimos o tamaño do brote,

we're also reducing the chance

tamén reducimos a probabilidade

that the virus makes it onto the next colony.

de que o virus chegue á próxima colonia.

We're breaking a link in the chain of transmission.

Estamos rompendo o vínculo na cadea de transmisión.

And so every time we do that,

E cada vez que o facemos,

we're bringing the virus one step closer to extinction.

estamos facendo que o virus estea máis cerca da extinción.

And so the thought, for me, of a world in the not-too-distant future

E a idea, para min, dun mundo no futuro non tan distante

where we're actually talking about getting rid of rabies altogether,

onde esteamos falando sobre erradicar por completo a rabia,

that is incredibly encouraging and exciting.

é incriblemente alentadora e emocionante.

So let me return to the original question.

Deixádeme volver á pregunta orixinal.

Can we prevent pandemics?

Podemos previr as pandemias?

Well, there is no silver-bullet solution to this problem,

Non hai unha solución infalible para este problema,

but my experiences with rabies have left me pretty optimistic about it.

pero a miña experiencia coa rabia faime ser bastante optimista.

I think we're not too far from a future

Penso que non estamos lonxe dun futuro

where we're going to have genomics to forecast outbreaks

onde imos ter xenómica para predicir brotes

and we're going to have clever new technologies,

e imos ter novas tecnoloxías intelixentes

like edible, self-spreading vaccines,

como vacinas comestibles que se expanden soas,

that can get rid of these viruses at their source

que poden erradicar estes virus de raíz

before they have a chance to jump into people.

antes de ter a oportunidade de saltar á xente.

So when it comes to fighting pandemics,

Cando se trata de loitar contra as pandemias,

the holy grail is just to get one step ahead.

o Santo Graal é ir un paso cara a adiante.

And if you ask me,

E se me preguntades,

I think one of the ways that we can do that

creo que unha das formas nas que podemos facelo

is using some of the problems that we already have now,

é usando algúns dos problemas que xa temos agora

coma a rabia,

like rabies --

sort of the way an astronaut might use a flight simulator,

da mesma forma que un astronauta usa un simulador de voo,

figuring out what works and what doesn't,

entendendo o que funciona e o que non,

e crear a nosa caixa de ferramentas

and building up our tool set

so that when the stakes are high,

para que cando o risco sexa alto,

we're not flying blind.

non voemos a cegas.

Thank you.

Grazas.

(Applause)

(Aplausos)