What vaccinating vampire bats can teach us about pandemics | Daniel Streicker

譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Rita Yang Gu

The story that I'm going to tell you today,

今天我要告訴大家的故事， 對我來說，開始於 2006 年。

for me, began back in 2006.

That was when I first heard about an outbreak of mysterious illness

那時，我初次聽到 有一種神秘的疾病爆發了，

that was happening in the Amazon rainforest of Peru.

它發生在秘魯的亞馬遜雨林。

The people that were getting sick from this illness,

染上這種疾病的人

會出現很可怕的症狀，像惡夢一樣。

they had horrifying symptoms, nightmarish.

They had unbelievable headaches,

他們會有無法忍受的頭痛， 無法正常進食或喝水：

they couldn't eat or drink.

Some of them were even hallucinating --

其中有些人還會妄想—— 既困惑又激進——

confused and aggressive.

The most tragic part of all

最不幸的是

was that many of the victims were children.

許多受害者是孩子。

And of all of those that got sick,

而所有生病的人

none survived.

沒有一個能夠活下來。

It turned out that what was killing people was a virus,

結果發現，造成死亡的是一種病毒，

but it wasn't Ebola, it wasn't Zika,

但不是伊波拉，不是茲卡病毒，

it wasn't even some new virus never before seen by science.

甚至不是科學界聞所未聞的新病毒。

These people were dying of an ancient killer,

殺死這些人的的，是我們數世紀前 就已經知道古老的殺手。

one that we've known about for centuries.

They were dying of rabies.

他們死於狂犬病。

And what all of them had in common was that as they slept,

這些病人的共通點是， 當他們在睡覺時，

they'd all been bitten by the only mammal that lives exclusively on a diet of blood:

他們都被一種哺乳類動物咬到，

它是唯一只靠吸血維生的 哺乳類動物：吸血蝙蝠。

the vampire bat.

These sorts of outbreaks that jump from bats into people,

這種疾病的爆發從蝙蝠延伸到人類，

they've become more and more common in the last couple of decades.

在過去幾十年間，變得越來越常見。

In 2003, it was SARS.

2003 年，是 SARS。

It showed up in Chinese animal markets and spread globally.

它出現在中國的動物市場上，

再散播到全球。

That virus, like the one from Peru, was eventually traced back to bats,

那種病毒，和秘魯的病毒一樣， 最終都可追溯回蝙蝠，

which have probably harbored it, undetected, for centuries.

病毒可能藏匿在蝙蝠身上 數個世紀，無法監測到，

Then, 10 years later, we see Ebola showing up in West Africa,

接著，十年後，

我們發現伊波拉在西非出現，

and that surprised just about everybody

幾乎讓所有人都大吃一驚，因為，

because, according to the science at the time,

根據那時的科學技術， 伊波拉根本不應該出現在西非。

Ebola wasn't really supposed to be in West Africa.

That ended up causing the largest and most widespread Ebola outbreak

最後造成了史上最大型、

散播最廣的伊波拉爆發流行。

in history.

So there's a disturbing trend here, right?

所以，這裡有種 讓人不安的趨勢，對吧？

Deadly viruses are appearing in places where we can't really expect them,

致命病毒出現在 我們從未預期到的地方，

and as a global health community,

我們這個全球健康共同體 完全跑不贏。

we're caught on our heels.

We're constantly chasing after the next viral emergency

我們經常在這個無限循環中

追逐下一個病毒緊急事件，

in this perpetual cycle,

always trying to extinguish epidemics after they've already started.

總是在流行已經爆發 之後再試圖滅火。

So with new diseases appearing every year,

因為每年有新疾病出現，

now is really the time

現在該是我們想想要怎麼 處理這個狀況的時候了。

that we need to start thinking about what we can do about it.

If we just wait for the next Ebola to happen,

若我們只是等著下一個伊波拉發生，

we might not be so lucky next time.

我們下次可能不會這麼幸運。

We might face a different virus,

我們可能會面對 不同的病毒，更致命的，

one that's more deadly,

one that spreads better among people,

更容易在人類之間傳播的病毒，

or maybe one that just completely outwits our vaccines,

或者它就是比我們的疫苗更聰明，

leaving us defenseless.

讓我們無法防禦。

So can we anticipate pandemics?

所以，我們能預期流行病發生嗎？

Can we stop them?

我們能阻止流行病嗎？

Those are really hard questions to answer,

要答案這些問題真的很難，

and the reason is that the pandemics --

原因是因為流行病——

the ones that spread globally,

散播全球的那種流行病，

the ones that we really want to anticipate --

我們真的很想預期到的 那種流行病——

they're actually really rare events.

它們其實是相當罕見的事件。

And for us as a species that is a good thing --

對我們這個物種來說，這是好事——

that's why we're all here.

因為這樣，我們才會在這裡。

But from a scientific standpoint, it's a little bit of a problem.

但從科學觀點來看， 似乎就有點問題了。

That's because if something happens just once or twice,

因為只發生一次、兩次的事件，

真的不足以推斷出模式。

that's really not enough to find any patterns.

而模式才能告訴我們， 下次流行病可能會在何時何地發生。

Patterns that could tell us when or where the next pandemic might strike.

So what do we do?

所以，我們要怎麼做？

Well, I think one of the solutions we may have is to study some viruses

我想，其中一個解決方案是， 我們可以研究一些病毒，

that routinely jump from wild animals into people,

會例行性從野生動物 跳到人類身上的病毒，

or into our pets, or our livestock,

或者跳到我們的寵物或家畜身上，

even if they're not the same viruses

即使這些病毒不見得和我們 認定將會造成流行的病毒一樣。

that we think are going to cause pandemics.

If we can use those everyday killer viruses

如果我們能使用一些日常的 殺手病毒來找出某些模式，

to work out some of the patterns

of what drives that initial, crucial jump from one species to the next,

了解是什麼因子驅使它們做出 關鍵的初次跨物種跳躍，

and, potentially, how we might stop it,

以及我們可能可以如何阻止它，

then we're going to end up better prepared

那麼我們就能做好更周全的準備，

for those viruses that jump between species more rarely

對抗那些比較少會在物種間跳躍的，

but pose a greater threat of pandemics.

但若流行起來會 更具有威脅性的病毒。

Now, rabies, as terrible as it is,

狂犬病雖然很糟糕，

turns out to be a pretty nice virus in this case.

但證明正是做這種研究的好病毒。

You see, rabies is a scary, deadly virus.

狂犬病是可怕、致命的病毒。

It has 100 percent fatality.

它的致死率是 100%。也就是，

That means if you get infected with rabies and you don't get treated early,

若你染上了狂犬病且不及早治療，

there's nothing that can be done.

就沒辦法了。

There is no cure.

無藥可救。

You will die.

你會死。

And rabies is not just a problem of the past either.

狂犬病也不只是過去的問題。

Even today, rabies still kills 50 to 60,000 people every year.

就算是現今，每年還是會有 五萬到六萬人死於狂犬病。

Just put that number in some perspective.

我們換個方式來看這個數字。

Imagine the whole West African Ebola outbreak --

想像整個西非的伊波拉爆發——

about two-and-a-half years;

大約兩年半；

you condense all the people that died in that outbreak

若你把那次爆發的所有死者 壓縮到僅僅一年。

into just a single year.

That's pretty bad.

那相當糟糕。

But then, you multiply it by four,

但，若把它乘以四，

and that's what happens with rabies every single year.

那就是每年發生的狂犬病病例數量。

So what sets rabies apart from a virus like Ebola

所以，讓狂犬病和伊波拉 這類病毒有所不同的是，

is that when people get it,

人得到狂犬病時， 通常不會繼續散播它。

they tend not to spread it onward.

That means that every single time a person gets rabies,

意即，每當有人得到狂犬病，

it's because they were bitten by a rabid animal,

都是因為被患有狂犬病的動物咬到，

and usually, that's a dog or a bat.

通常是狗或蝙蝠。

But it also means that those jumps between species,

但，那也意味著，跨物種的傳播

which are so important to understand, but so rare for most viruses,

雖然對大部分病毒而言都很罕見， 了解這類傳播卻很重要，

for rabies, they're actually happening by the thousands.

對狂犬病來說， 它們會大批大批地傳播。

So in a way, rabies is almost like the fruit fly

在某種層面上， 狂犬病幾乎就像是果蠅，

or the lab mouse of deadly viruses.

或者有致命病毒的實驗室老鼠。

This is a virus that we can use and study to find patterns

我們可以用這種病毒 來做研究，找出模式，

and potentially test out new solutions.

可能還能測試我們的解決方案。

And so, when I first heard about that outbreak of rabies

所以，當我初次聽到狂犬病 在秘魯亞馬遜地區爆發時，

in the Peruvian Amazon,

it struck me as something potentially powerful

我覺得它有很強大的力量，

because this was a virus that was jumping from bats into other animals

因為這種病毒能從蝙蝠 跳到其他動物身上，

often enough that we might be able to anticipate it ...

且頻率高到讓我們覺得 有可能可以預測……

Maybe even stop it.

甚至可以阻止它。

So as a first-year graduate student

所以，在研究所的第一年，

with a vague memory of my high school Spanish class,

只有高中西班牙文課的模糊記憶，

I jumped onto a plane and flew off to Peru,

我就跳上飛機，飛到秘魯，

looking for vampire bats.

去尋找吸血蝙蝠。

And the first couple of years of this project were really tough.

這個計畫的前幾年真的很辛苦。

I had no shortage of ambitious plans to rid Latin America of rabies,

我不缺野心勃勃的計畫， 想幫拉丁美洲脫離狂犬病，

but at the same time,

但同時，

there seemed to be an equally endless supply of mudslides and flat tires,

我似乎也永無止境地 遇到土石流、爆胎、

power outages, stomach bugs all stopping me.

電力中斷、腸胃炎， 這些都在阻撓我。

But that was kind of par for the course,

但那似乎就是在南美工作的常態，

working in South America,

and to me, it was part of the adventure.

對我來說，那是冒險的一部分。

But what kept me going

但，我能持續走下去，

was the knowledge that for the first time,

是因為知道，這是第一次，

the work that I was doing might actually have some real impact

我所做的事可能真的會 在短期對別人的生活造成影響。

on people's lives in the short term.

最讓我有感的一次，

And that struck me the most

when we actually went out to the Amazon

是我們真的前往亞馬遜，

and were trying to catch vampire bats.

試圖捕捉吸血蝙蝠。

You see, all we had to do was show up at a village and ask around.

我們要做的很簡單： 到那裡去，到處打聽。

"Who's been getting bitten by a bat lately?"

「最近有誰被蝙蝠咬過？」

And people raised their hands,

就會有人舉手，

because in these communities,

因為，在那些部落中，

getting bitten by a bat is an everyday occurrence,

被蝙蝠咬是常有的事， 每天都會發生。

happens every day.

And so all we had to do was go to the right house,

我們要做的就是，找對房子，

open up a net

張開一張網，

and show up at night,

在晚上過去，

and wait until the bats tried to fly in and feed on human blood.

等到蝙蝠嘗試飛進來吸人血。

對我來說，

So to me, seeing a child with a bite wound on his head or blood stains on his sheets,

看到孩子在頭上有咬傷，

或者床單上有血跡，

that was more than enough motivation

就已經是非常大的動力，

to get past whatever logistical or physical headache

讓我那天克服所有經歷到的

I happened to be feeling on that day.

後勤上或身體上面的麻煩。

Since we were working all night long, though,

不過，因為我們要整晚工作，

I had plenty of time to think about how I might actually solve this problem,

我有很多時間可以思考 我要如何解決這個問題，

and it stood out to me that there were two burning questions.

很明顯有兩個迫切的問題。

The first was that we know that people are bitten all the time,

第一，我們知道大家常常被咬，

but rabies outbreaks aren't happening all the time --

但狂犬病並沒有常常爆發——

every couple of years, maybe even every decade,

每幾年，可能甚至每十年，

you get a rabies outbreak.

才會有一次狂犬病爆發。

So if we could somehow anticipate when and where the next outbreak would be,

如果我們能預測 下次爆發的時間和地點，

that would be a real opportunity,

那就真的是個機會，

meaning we could vaccinate people ahead of time,

這意味著，我們能在有人死亡 之前就搶先給大家注射疫苗。

before anybody starts dying.

But the other side of that coin

但，硬幣還有另一面，

is that vaccination is really just a Band-Aid.

疫苗只算得上是創可貼。

It's kind of a strategy of damage control.

有點像是損害控制策略。

Of course it's lifesaving and important and we have to do it,

當然，這很重要，能拯救人命， 我們必須要去做，

but at the end of the day,

但，最終，

no matter how many cows, how many people we vaccinate,

不論我們給多少頭牛、 多少個人疫苗，

we're still going to have exactly the same amount of rabies up there in the bats.

在蝙蝠當中的狂犬病 數目仍然一樣。

The actual risk of getting bitten hasn't changed at all.

被咬的風險仍然沒有改變。

So my second question was this:

所以，我的第二個問題是：

Could we somehow cut the virus off at its source?

我們能用某種方式 從源頭斬斷病毒嗎？

If we could somehow reduce the amount of rabies in the bats themselves,

若我們有辦法減少 蝙蝠中的狂犬病數目，

then that would be a real game changer.

那就會帶來很大的改變。

We'd been talking about shifting

我們一直在說轉變，

from a strategy of damage control to one based on prevention.

從損害控制的策略， 轉變為預防性策略。

So, how do we begin to do that?

我們要如何開始著手？

Well, the first thing we needed to understand

我們首先要了解

was how this virus actually works in its natural host --

這種病毒在它的天然宿主—— 即蝙蝠——身上是如何運作的。

in the bats.

And that is a tall order for any infectious disease,

對於任何感染性疾病， 這都是很困難的，

particularly one in a reclusive species like bats,

特別是在像蝙蝠這種 隱遁的物種身上的疾病，

but we had to start somewhere.

但我們總得有個開始。

So the way we started was looking at some historical data.

所以，我們開始的方式， 是去研究一些歷史資料。

When and where had these outbreaks happened in the past?

過去的爆發是在 什麼時候、什麼地方？

And it became clear that rabies was a virus

漸漸發現，狂犬病病毒

that just had to be on the move.

必須要不斷移動。

It couldn't sit still.

它無法待著不動。

The virus might circulate in one area for a year, maybe two,

這種病毒可能會在一個地區 傳播一年或兩年，

but unless it found a new group of bats to infect somewhere else,

但若它沒有在其他地方 找到新的一群蝙蝠來感染，

it was pretty much bound to go extinct.

它大致上就注定絕跡了。

So with that, we solved one key part of the rabies transmission challenge.

因此，我們解決了狂犬病 傳播挑戰的一個關鍵部分。

We knew we were dealing with a virus on the move,

我們知道我們在處理 不斷移動的病毒，

but we still couldn't say where it was going.

但我們仍然不知道它會去哪裡。

Essentially, what I wanted was more of a Google Maps-style prediction,

基本上，我希望能達成的是 一張類似 Google 地圖的預測圖，

which is, "What's the destination of the virus?

也就是「病毒的目的地是哪裡？

What's the route it's going to take to get there?

它會走什麼路線到目的地？

How fast will it move?"

它的行進速度有多快？」

To do that, I turned to the genomes of rabies.

為了達成這個目標， 我轉向狂犬病的基因組。

You see, rabies, like many other viruses, has a tiny little genome,

狂犬病和其他病毒一樣， 都具有小小的基因組，

but one that evolves really, really quickly.

但演化得非常非常快。

So quickly that by the time the virus has moved from one point to the next,

快到當這種病毒從一個點 移動到下一個點時，

it's going to have picked up a couple of new mutations.

它就已經會出現好幾種新變種了。

And so all we have to do is kind of connect the dots

所以我們要做的就是

across an evolutionary tree,

將演化樹上的各點連起來，

and that's going to tell us where the virus has been in the past

那樣就能得知這種病毒過去在何處，

and how it spread across the landscape.

及它在陸地上如何散播分佈。

So, I went out and I collected cow brains,

所以，我跑去收集了母牛的大腦，

because that's where you get rabies viruses.

因為在那裡可以取得狂犬病病毒。

And from genome sequences that we got from the viruses in those cow brains,

從那些母牛大腦中的，

我們取得了病毒的基因組序列，

I was able to work out

讓我能夠發現這種病毒 每年會散播十到二十英里。

that this is a virus that spreads between 10 and 20 miles each year.

OK, so that means we do now have the speed limit of the virus,

所以，那表示我們現在 知道了這種病毒的速限，

but still missing that other key part of where is it going in the first place.

但還少了一項關鍵資訊： 它起初是打算要去哪裡。

For that, I needed to think a little bit more like a bat,

為了了解這一點， 我得像蝙蝠一樣思考，

because rabies is a virus --

因為狂犬病病毒不會自己移動，

it doesn't move by itself,

it has to be moved around by its bat host,

要靠蝙蝠宿主來移動它，

so I needed to think about how far to fly and how often to fly.

所以我得要思考飛行距離和頻率。

My imagination didn't get me all that far with this

在這方面，我的想像力 沒有太大的幫助，

and neither did little digital trackers that we first tried putting on bats.

放在蝙蝠身上的小型 數位追蹤器也幫不上忙。

We just couldn't get the information we needed.

就是無法取得我們需要的資訊。

所以，我們轉向 開始研究蝙蝠的交配模式。

So instead, we turned to the mating patterns of bats.

We could look at certain parts of the bat genome,

我們可以去研究蝙蝠 基因組中的某些部分，

and they were telling us that some groups of bats were mating with each other

那些部分告訴我們， 有些蝙蝠族群會和彼此交配，

and others were more isolated.

其他的則比較孤離。

And the virus was basically following the trail laid out by the bat genomes.

而病毒基本上是遵循著 蝙蝠基因組留下的路徑痕跡。

Yet one of those trails stood out as being a little bit surprising --

但，其中有一條路徑很特別， 有點讓人吃驚——

hard to believe.

甚至難以相信。

That was one that seemed to cross straight over the Peruvian Andes,

這條路徑似乎是 直接穿越安地斯山脈，

crossing from the Amazon to the Pacific coast,

從亞馬遜一路穿越到太平洋海岸，

and that was kind of hard to believe,

那有點讓人吃驚，

as I said,

我說過，因為

安地斯山脈相當高—— 大約兩萬兩千英呎，

because the Andes are really tall -- about 22,000 feet,

and that's way too high for a vampire to fly.

吸血蝙蝠無法在那種高度飛行。

Yet --

但——（笑聲）

(Laughter)

當我們更仔細研究， 我們發現，在秘魯北邊

when we looked more closely,

we saw, in the northern part of Peru,

a network of valley systems that was not quite too tall

有一個谷系網路，不會太高，

for the bats on either side to be mating with each other.

讓任何一邊的蝙蝠都能和彼此交配。

And we looked a little bit more closely --

我們再更仔細研究——

sure enough, there's rabies spreading through those valleys,

在那些山谷中有狂犬病在散播，

just about 10 miles each year.

大約每年十英里。

Basically, exactly as our evolutionary models had predicated it would be.

基本上和我們用演化模型 做出的預測一樣。

What I didn't tell you

我沒有告訴各位的是， 這一點其實還蠻重要的，

is that that's actually kind of an important thing

because rabies had never been seen before on the western slopes of the Andes,

因為過去從來沒有在 安地斯山脈的西坡上發現狂犬病，

or on the whole Pacific coast of South America,

在南美的整個太平洋 海岸上也都沒有，

so we were actually witnessing, in real time, a historical first invasion

所以，我們其實正在 即時見證史上第一次

into a pretty big part of South America,

對南美很大一塊地區發動的侵略，

which raises the key question:

這就引到了關鍵問題： 「對此，我們要如何是好？」

"What are we going to do about that?"

Well, the obvious short-term thing we can do is tell people:

很顯然，在短期內， 我們能做的是告訴大家：

you need to vaccinate yourselves, vaccinate your animals;

你們得要給自己 及你們的寵物注射疫苗；

rabies is coming.

狂犬病要來了。

But in the longer term,

但就長期來說，

it would be even more powerful if we could use that new information

更強大的方式是我們利用那些資訊

to stop the virus from arriving altogether.

讓病毒連到來的機會都沒有。

Of course, we can't just tell bats, "Don't fly today,"

當然，我們不能直接告訴 蝙蝠說「今天不要飛」，

but maybe we could stop the virus from hitching a ride along with the bat.

但也許我們可以阻止 病毒搭蝙蝠的便車。

And that brings us to the key lesson that we have learned

那就要帶到我們所學到的關鍵一課，

from rabies-management programs all around the world,

這一課來自世界各地的 狂犬病管理計畫，

whether it's dogs, foxes, skunks, raccoons,

不論是狗、狐狸、臭鼬、浣熊、

North America, Africa, Europe.

北美、非洲、歐洲。

It's that vaccinating the animal source is the only thing that stops rabies.

這一課就是：唯有針對動物源頭 施打疫苗才能阻止狂犬病。

So, can we vaccinate bats?

所以，我們能為蝙蝠施打疫苗嗎？

You hear about vaccinating dogs and cats all the time,

各位常常聽到幫貓狗施打疫苗，

but you don't hear too much about vaccinating bats.

但應該很少聽到幫蝙蝠施打疫苗。

It might sound like a crazy question,

這個問題可能聽起來很瘋狂，

but the good news is that we actually already have edible rabies vaccines

但好消息是，

我們其實已經有了食用狂犬病疫苗，

that are specially designed for bats.

且專門為蝙蝠設計。

And what's even better

更好的是，

is that these vaccines can actually spread from bat to bat.

這些疫苗還能從蝙蝠散播給蝙蝠。

All you have to do is smear it on one

只需要讓一隻蝙蝠帶有疫苗，

and let the bats' habit of grooming each other

蝙蝠會照料彼此的習慣 自然就會幫你做完剩下的工作。

take care of the rest of the work for you.

So that means, at the very least,

那就表示，至少，

we don't have to be out there vaccinating millions of bats one by one

我們不需要用迷你注射器

去幫數百萬隻蝙蝠 一隻一隻地施打疫苗。

with tiny little syringes.

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

But just because we have that tool doesn't mean we know how to use it.

但，我們有工具，並不表示 我們知道如何使用它。

Now we have a whole laundry list of questions.

現在我們列出了一大堆問題。

How many bats do we need to vaccinate?

我們要為幾隻蝙蝠施打疫苗？

What time of the year do we need to be vaccinating?

一年當中的什麼時期 需要施打疫苗？

How many times a year do we need to be vaccinating?

一年中要施打疫苗幾次？

All of these are questions that are really fundamental

如果要推出任何疫苗計畫，

to rolling out any sort of vaccination campaign,

上述這些問題都是非常基本的，

but they're questions that we can't answer in the laboratory.

但我們無法在實驗室中 回答這些問題。

So instead, we're taking a slightly more colorful approach.

所以，我們改採用了 一種比較活潑的做法。

We're using real wild bats, but fake vaccines.

我們用真正的野生蝙蝠， 但疫苗是假的。

We use edible gels that make bat hair glow

我們採用會讓蝙蝠的毛 發光的食用膠，

and UV powders that spread between bats when they bump into each other,

搭配 UV 粉末，當蝙蝠碰見 彼此時會在牠們之間散播，

and that's letting us study how well a real vaccine might spread

這樣，我們就能研究真正的疫苗

in these wild colonies of bats.

在蝙蝠的這些野生居住地中 是否能理想地散播出去。

We're still in the earliest phases of this work,

我們還在這項工作的最初階段，

but our results so far are incredibly encouraging.

但目前為止我們的結果 十分讓人振奮。

They're suggesting that using the vaccines that we already have,

結果顯示，用我們已有的疫苗，

we could potentially drastically reduce the size of rabies outbreaks.

就有可能將狂犬病 爆發的規模大大降低。

And that matters, because as you remember,

這真的很重要，如果各位記得，

rabies is a virus that always has to be on the move,

狂犬病是一種必須要 一直移動的病毒，

and so every time we reduce the size of an outbreak,

所以，每當我們減少爆發的規模，

we're also reducing the chance

我們也是在減少

that the virus makes it onto the next colony.

病毒成功到達下一個 居住地的可能性。

We're breaking a link in the chain of transmission.

我們在打破傳播鏈中的一個環節。

And so every time we do that,

所以，每當我們這麼做，

we're bringing the virus one step closer to extinction.

就是讓這種病毒 朝絕跡再邁進一步。

And so the thought, for me, of a world in the not-too-distant future

所以，對我來說，

一想到在不久的將來

where we're actually talking about getting rid of rabies altogether,

我們能真正談論 一勞永逸地擺脫狂犬病，

that is incredibly encouraging and exciting.

我就覺得非常振奮和興奮。

So let me return to the original question.

所以，讓我回到最初的問題。

Can we prevent pandemics?

我們能預防流行病嗎？

Well, there is no silver-bullet solution to this problem,

沒有萬靈丹可以解決這個問題，

but my experiences with rabies have left me pretty optimistic about it.

但我的這些狂犬病經驗 讓我對此很樂觀。

I think we're not too far from a future

我想，在不久的將來，

where we're going to have genomics to forecast outbreaks

我們會有基因組學來預測爆發，

and we're going to have clever new technologies,

我們也會有聰明的新技術，

like edible, self-spreading vaccines,

比如可食用、自我散播的疫苗，

that can get rid of these viruses at their source

可以從源頭擺脫這些病毒，

before they have a chance to jump into people.

讓它們根本沒有機會 跳躍到人類身上。

So when it comes to fighting pandemics,

所以，在對抗流行病方面，

the holy grail is just to get one step ahead.

聖杯就是「超前一步」。

And if you ask me,

如果要問我，我想， 行得通的方法之一，

I think one of the ways that we can do that

is using some of the problems that we already have now,

就是利用我們目前已有的 一些問題，比如狂犬病——

like rabies --

sort of the way an astronaut might use a flight simulator,

有點像是太空人會用飛行模擬艙，

來想出什麼會有用、什麼不會， 建立我們的工具組，

figuring out what works and what doesn't,

and building up our tool set

so that when the stakes are high,

這麼一來，當風險高時， 我們就不是盲目飛行。

we're not flying blind.

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Applause)

（掌聲）