Do tax cuts stimulate the economy? - Jonathan Smith

339,670 views ・ 2022-05-12

TED-Ed


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翻译人员: Siyu Lian 校对人员: Yip Yan Yeung
00:07
When President Ronald Reagan began his first term in 1981,
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当罗纳德·里根总统在 1981 年刚上任时,
00:11
the US economy was struggling.
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美国的经济情况岌岌可危。
00:13
Unemployment rates were high and getting higher,
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失业率越来越高,
00:16
and in 1979, inflation had peaked at an all-time high for peacetime.
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1979 年,通货膨胀达到 和平时期的历史最高点。
00:22
In an effort to combat these issues,
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为了解决这些问题,
00:24
Reagan's administration introduced a number of economic policies,
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里根政府推出了 一系列经济政策,
00:28
including tax cuts for large corporations and high-income earners.
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包括对大企业和高收入者的减税。
00:33
The idea was that tax savings for the rich
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这个想法是,富人减税省下来的钱
00:37
would cause extra money to trickle down to everyone else,
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将导致额外的钱流向其他所有人;
00:40
and for that reason,
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因此,
00:41
these policies are often referred to as trickle-down economics.
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这些政策被称为下渗经济学 (trickle-down economics)。
00:46
From the 80s to the late 90s,
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80 年代到 90 年代后期 是美国历史上最长和
00:48
the US saw one of its longest and strongest periods
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00:51
of economic growth in history.
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最强势的经济增长时期之一。
00:54
Median income rose, as did rates of job creation.
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平均收入和就业机会增长。
00:58
Since then, many politicians have invoked trickle-down theory
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从那以后,许多政治家使用
01:01
as a justification for tax cuts—
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下渗经济作为减税的理由——
01:04
but did these policies actually work,
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不过这些政策真的有效吗?
01:07
either in the sense of stimulating economic growth,
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它们真的能刺激经济增长
01:09
or in terms of improving circumstances for Americans?
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或者提高美国人的经济现状吗?
01:13
Would they work in other circumstances?
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在其他情况下,这些政策有用吗?
01:16
To answer these questions,
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为了回答这些问题,
01:17
the main things to consider are whether the impact of the tax cut
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我们应该考虑减税会不会
01:20
on the government’s tax revenue is harmful,
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对政府的税收产生负面的影响、
01:24
whether the money saved in taxes actually stimulates the economy,
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省下的税款到底有没有刺激经济、
01:28
and whether stimulating the economy actually improves people’s lives.
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还有刺激经济真的可以 提高人们的生活水平吗?
01:33
The idea behind tax cuts is that if taxes are too high,
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减税背后的理念是, 如果税收太高,
01:36
people will be less willing to work,
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人们想要工作的意愿就会降低,
01:38
which would ultimately decrease tax revenue.
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这就会导致税收的降低。
01:41
So at a lower tax rate, the government might actually gain more tax money
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所以在低税率的情况下, 政府可能会得到更多的税收,
01:46
that it can theoretically put towards improving life for its citizens,
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理论上会用来提高 人们的生活水平,
01:50
because people will work more when they get to keep more of their earnings.
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因为当人们能留下更多收入时, 他们会更加努力工作。
01:55
Of course, there’s a limit to how much the government can cut taxes:
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政府能减税的程度是有限的:
01:58
at a zero tax rate there is no tax revenue regardless of how much people are working.
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在零税率的情况下, 不论人们的工作量,都是零税收。
02:04
So while cuts from a very high tax rate might be fine,
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在税率高的情况下, 减税可能是合理的,
02:07
cuts from a lower tax rate might be counterproductive,
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但在税率高的情况下, 减税可能产生反效果,
02:11
hampering the government's ability to accomplish crucial things.
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妨碍政府完成关键政务的能力。
02:14
Tax rates were extremely high when Reagan took office.
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里根就职时的税率是很高的。
02:17
His administration cut the highest income tax bracket from 70% to 28%
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他的政府将最高收入税率 从 70% 降至 28% ,
02:23
and corporation tax from 48% to 34%.
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企业税从 48% 降至 34% 。
02:28
By comparison, as of early 2021,
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相比之下, 2021 年初,
02:31
those rates were 37% and 21% respectively.
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这两项税率分别是 37% 和 21% 。
02:35
When tax rates are lower, tax cuts for the wealthy can be harmful.
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当税率较低时, 对富人减税可能是负面的。
02:39
For example, in 2012 to 2013,
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例如,在 2012 年 至 2013 年,
02:42
lawmakers cut the top tax-rate in the state of Kansas by almost 30%
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议员将堪萨斯州的最高税率 降低了近 30% ,
02:47
and reduced some business tax rates to zero.
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并将一些企业的税率降到零。
02:51
As a result, the government’s balance sheet immediately fell
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这导致了政府的资产负债表 立刻跌为负数,
02:54
into negative territory and did not recover,
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并且没有恢复成正数,
02:57
implying that wealthy individuals and companies did not invest
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这意味着有钱人和企业
03:00
back into the economy.
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没有把钱投资回经济中。
03:02
In short, the money did not trickle down.
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总之,财富没有下渗。
03:06
This appears to be a trend:
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这看来是一种趋势:
03:08
in a study over multiple periods of history and across 18 countries,
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在一项跨越了 18 个国家 和多个历史时期的研究中,
03:12
The London School of Economics found that cutting taxes
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伦敦经济学院的研究发现
03:16
increased the wealth of the top 1% of people,
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减税增加了最顶端 1% 人的财富,
03:19
but had little effect on the economy as a whole.
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对整体的经济没有什么影响。
03:22
In order for tax cuts for the rich to truly stimulate the economy,
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为了让富人的减税能够 真正刺激经济,
03:26
they would have to spend the saved money
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他们需要将省下的钱投入回经济,
03:29
putting it back into, for example, local businesses—
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比如投资当地的企业,
03:32
but this isn’t what happens in practice.
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但实际情况并非如此。
03:35
No economic policy operates in isolation:
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没有任何经济政策是独立运作的:
03:38
each time and place is unique with multiple policies in place simultaneously,
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每个时间和地点都有多项 特殊的政策同时进行,
03:43
so there is only ever one test case for each set of scenarios.
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因此,每组情况只有 一个测试案例。
03:47
This makes it difficult to deliver definitive rulings on whether
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这使得我们很难对以下 问题作出明确的裁决:
03:51
an economic policy worked,
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某项经济政策是否有效、
03:52
whether something else might have worked better,
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其他政策是否会更好地发挥作用、
03:54
or whether it would work in a different situation.
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或在不同情况下是否会发挥作用?
03:57
And yet, rhetoric around trickle-down economics,
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无论是围绕在里根时代和之后
04:01
both during the Reagan era and since,
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关于下渗经济的言论
04:03
often promises something definitive:
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往往承诺一些绝对的东西:
04:06
that spending by society’s richest members on things other than taxes
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社会上最富有的人们 在交税以外其他方面的支出
04:11
directly improves the financial circumstances of the less wealthy.
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会直接改善穷人的财务状况,
04:15
And there’s not much evidence to support that.
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但没有足够的证据来证明这一点。
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