Do tax cuts stimulate the economy? - Jonathan Smith

365,004 views ใƒป 2022-05-12

TED-Ed


์•„๋ž˜ ์˜๋ฌธ์ž๋ง‰์„ ๋”๋ธ”ํด๋ฆญํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์˜์ƒ์ด ์žฌ์ƒ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฒˆ์—ญ: Andrew Jung ๊ฒ€ํ† : DK Kim
00:07
When President Ronald Reagan began his first term in 1981,
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1981๋…„ ๋ ˆ์ด๊ฑด ๋Œ€ํ†ต๋ น์ด ์ฒซ ์ž„๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ–ˆ์„ ๋•Œ,
00:11
the US economy was struggling.
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๊ฒฝ์ œ๋Š” ์–ด๋ ค์›€์„ ๊ฒช๊ณ  ์žˆ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:13
Unemployment rates were high and getting higher,
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์ด๋ฏธ ๋†’์•˜๋˜ ์‹ค์—…๋ฅ ์€ ๋”์šฑ ๋” ์ƒ์Šนํ–ˆ๊ณ 
00:16
and in 1979, inflation had peaked at an all-time high for peacetime.
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1979๋…„์—๋Š” ๋ฌผ๊ฐ€ ์ƒ์Šน๋ฅ ์ด ์ „์‹œ๋ฅผ ์ œ์™ธํ•˜๊ณ  ์‚ฌ์ƒ ์ตœ๊ณ ์˜€์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:22
In an effort to combat these issues,
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์ด๋Ÿฐ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋“ค์„ ํ•ด๊ฒฐํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด
00:24
Reagan's administration introduced a number of economic policies,
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๋ ˆ์ด๊ฑด ํ–‰์ •๋ถ€๋Š” ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ ๊ฐ€์ง€ ๊ฒฝ์ œ ์ •์ฑ…์„ ๋„์ž…ํ–ˆ๋Š”๋ฐ
00:28
including tax cuts for large corporations and high-income earners.
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๋Œ€๊ธฐ์—…๊ณผ ๊ณ ์†Œ๋“์ธต์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๊ฐ์„ธ๋„ ๋“ค์–ด ์žˆ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:33
The idea was that tax savings for the rich
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๊ณ ์†Œ๋“์ธต์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๊ฐ์„ธ๊ฐ€
00:37
would cause extra money to trickle down to everyone else,
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๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๋ชจ๋“  ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ๋กœ ํ˜๋Ÿฌ๋‚ด๋ ค ๋ถ„๋ฐฐ๋œ๋‹ค๋Š” ์ด๋ก ์—์„œ ๋น„๋กฏ๋˜์—ˆ๊ณ 
00:40
and for that reason,
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๊ทธ ์ด์œ  ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์—
00:41
these policies are often referred to as trickle-down economics.
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์ด ์ •์ฑ…๋“ค์€ ํ”ํžˆ ๋‚™์ˆ˜ ๊ฒฝ์ œ๋ผ๊ณ  ๋ถˆ๋ ธ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:46
From the 80s to the late 90s,
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80๋…„๋Œ€์—์„œ 90๋…„๋Œ€ ํ›„๋ฐ˜๊นŒ์ง€
00:48
the US saw one of its longest and strongest periods
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ์€ ์—ญ์‚ฌ์ƒ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๊ธธ๊ณ  ๊ฐ•๋ ฅํ•œ
00:51
of economic growth in history.
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๊ฒฝ์ œ์  ์„ฑ์žฅ๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ๋งž์ดํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:54
Median income rose, as did rates of job creation.
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์ค‘์‚ฐ์ธต์˜ ์†Œ๋“์ด ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•˜๊ณ  ์ผ์ž๋ฆฌ๋„ ๋Š˜์–ด๋‚ฌ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:58
Since then, many politicians have invoked trickle-down theory
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๊ทธ ์ดํ›„, ๋งŽ์€ ์ •์น˜๊ฐ€๋“ค์€ ๋‚™์ˆ˜ ์ด๋ก ์„ ๊ทผ๊ฑฐ๋กœ
01:01
as a justification for tax cutsโ€”
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๊ฐ์„ธ๋ฅผ ์ •๋‹นํ™”ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:04
but did these policies actually work,
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์ด๋Ÿฌํ•œ ์ •์ฑ…๋“ค์ด ์‹ค์ œ๋กœ
01:07
either in the sense of stimulating economic growth,
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๊ฒฝ์ œ ์„ฑ์žฅ์„ ์ž๊ทนํ•˜๊ฑฐ๋‚˜
01:09
or in terms of improving circumstances for Americans?
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ๋ฏผ์˜ ์ƒํ™ฉ์„ ๊ฐœ์„ ํ–ˆ์„๊นŒ์š”?
01:13
Would they work in other circumstances?
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๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์กฐ๊ฑด์—์„œ๋„ ์ž˜ ์ ์šฉ๋ ๊นŒ์š”?
01:16
To answer these questions,
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์ด๋Ÿฐ ์งˆ๋ฌธ๋“ค์— ๋Œ€๋‹ตํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ ์ฃผ์š”ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๊ณ ๋ คํ•ด์•ผ ํ•  ์ ์€
01:17
the main things to consider are whether the impact of the tax cut
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๊ฐ์„ธ๊ฐ€ ์ •๋ถ€์˜ ์„ธ์ˆ˜์— ํƒ€๊ฒฉ์„ ์ฃผ๋Š”๊ฐ€,
01:20
on the governmentโ€™s tax revenue is harmful,
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01:24
whether the money saved in taxes actually stimulates the economy,
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๊ฐ์„ธ๋กœ ์ถ•์ ๋œ ๋ˆ์ด ์‹ค์ œ๋กœ ๊ฒฝ์ œ์— ๋„์›€์„ ์ฃผ๋Š”๊ฐ€,
01:28
and whether stimulating the economy actually improves peopleโ€™s lives.
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๊ทธ๋กœ ์ธํ•œ ๊ฒฝ์ œ์  ์ž๊ทน์ด ์‹ค์ œ๋กœ ๊ตญ๋ฏผ์˜ ์‚ถ์„ ๊ฐœ์„ ํ•˜๋Š”๊ฐ€์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:33
The idea behind tax cuts is that if taxes are too high,
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๊ฐ์„ธ ์ •์ฑ…์˜ ๋ฐ”ํƒ•์—๋Š”,
๋งŒ์•ฝ ์„ธ๊ธˆ์ด ๋„ˆ๋ฌด ๋งŽ์œผ๋ฉด ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ์ผํ•  ์˜์š•์ด ์ค„์–ด๋“ค๊ณ ,
01:36
people will be less willing to work,
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01:38
which would ultimately decrease tax revenue.
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๊ฒฐ๊ตญ ์ •๋ถ€์˜ ์„ธ์ˆ˜๋Š” ๊ฐ์†Œํ•œ๋‹ค๋Š” ์ƒ๊ฐ์ด ๊น”๋ ค์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:41
So at a lower tax rate, the government might actually gain more tax money
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๋”ฐ๋ผ์„œ ์„ธ์œจ์„ ๋” ๋‚ด๋ฆฌ๋ฉด,
์ •๋ถ€๋Š” ์„ธ์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ๋Š˜๋ฆด ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๊ณ 
01:46
that it can theoretically put towards improving life for its citizens,
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์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ์ˆ˜์ค‘์— ๋ˆ์ด ๋” ๋งŽ์ด ๋‚จ์œผ๋‹ˆ ์ผ์„ ๋” ๋งŽ์ด ํ•  ๊ฒƒ์ด๊ณ 
01:50
because people will work more when they get to keep more of their earnings.
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์ด๋ก ์ ์œผ๋กœ๋Š” ๊ตญ๋ฏผ์˜ ์‚ถ์ด ๊ฐœ์„ ๋œ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:55
Of course, thereโ€™s a limit to how much the government can cut taxes:
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๋ฌผ๋ก  ์ •๋ถ€์˜ ๊ฐ์„ธ์—๋Š” ํ•œ๊ณ„๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:58
at a zero tax rate there is no tax revenue regardless of how much people are working.
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์„ธ์œจ์ด 0%๋ผ๋ฉด ์–ผ๋งˆ๋ฅผ ์ผํ•˜๋“  ์„ธ์ˆ˜๋Š” ์—†์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:04
So while cuts from a very high tax rate might be fine,
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๋”ฐ๋ผ์„œ ์„ธ์œจ์ด ๋ชน์‹œ ๋†’๋‹ค๋ฉด ๊ฐ์„ธ๋Š” ๊ดœ์ฐฎ๊ฒ ์ง€๋งŒ,
02:07
cuts from a lower tax rate might be counterproductive,
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๋‚ฎ์€ ์„ธ์œจ์—์„œ ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฐ์„ธ๋Š” ์—ญํšจ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ๋ถˆ๋Ÿฌ ์ผ์œผํ‚ค๊ณ 
02:11
hampering the government's ability to accomplish crucial things.
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์ค‘๋Œ€ํ•œ ์—…๋ฌด๋ฅผ ์ˆ˜ํ–‰ํ•˜๋Š” ์ •๋ถ€์˜ ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ์„ ํ•ด์น  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:14
Tax rates were extremely high when Reagan took office.
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๋ ˆ์ด๊ฑด ๋Œ€ํ†ต๋ น์ด ์ทจ์ž„ํ–ˆ์„ ๋•Œ ์„ธ์œจ์€ ๋งค์šฐ ๋†’์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:17
His administration cut the highest income tax bracket from 70% to 28%
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์ •๋ถ€๋Š” ์ตœ๊ณ ์†Œ๋“์„ธ์œจ์„ 70%์—์„œ 28%๋กœ ๋‚ด๋ ธ๊ณ ,
02:23
and corporation tax from 48% to 34%.
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๋ฒ•์ธ์„ธ๋Š” 48%์—์„œ 34%๋กœ ๋‚ด๋ ธ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:28
By comparison, as of early 2021,
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์ด์™€ ๋น„๊ตํ•ด์„œ 2021๋…„ ์ดˆ๋ฐ˜์—
02:31
those rates were 37% and 21% respectively.
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์ด๋“ค ์„ธ์œจ์€ ๊ฐ๊ฐ 37%์™€ 21%์˜€์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:35
When tax rates are lower, tax cuts for the wealthy can be harmful.
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์„ธ์œจ์ด ๋‚ฎ์„ ๋•Œ ๊ณ ์†Œ๋“์ธต ๊ฐ์„ธ๋Š” ํ•ด๋กœ์šธ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:39
For example, in 2012 to 2013,
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์˜ˆ๋ฅผ ๋“ค๋ฉด 2012๋…„๋ถ€ํ„ฐ 2013๋…„๊นŒ์ง€
02:42
lawmakers cut the top tax-rate in the state of Kansas by almost 30%
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์บ”์ž์Šค ์ฃผ์˜ํšŒ๋Š” ์ตœ๊ณ ์†Œ๋“์„ธ์œจ์„ ๊ฑฐ์˜ 30%๋กœ ๋‚ฎ์ท„๊ณ ,
02:47
and reduced some business tax rates to zero.
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์–ด๋–ค ๋ฒ•์ธ์„ธ๋Š” 0%๋กœ ์ค„์˜€์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:51
As a result, the governmentโ€™s balance sheet immediately fell
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๊ทธ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ, ์ •๋ถ€์˜ ์žฌ๋ฌด ์ƒํƒœ๋Š” ์ฆ‰์‹œ
02:54
into negative territory and did not recover,
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์ ์ž๋กœ ์ถ”๋ฝํ•ด์„œ ํšŒ๋ณตํ•˜์ง€ ๋ชปํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:57
implying that wealthy individuals and companies did not invest
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์—ฌ๊ธฐ์„œ ์ถ”์ธกํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€ ๊ณ ์†Œ๋“์ธต๊ณผ ๊ธฐ์—…๋“ค์ด
03:00
back into the economy.
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์ถ•์ ํ•œ ๋ˆ์„ ๊ฒฝ์ œ๋กœ ์žฌํˆฌ์žํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์•˜๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:02
In short, the money did not trickle down.
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ํ•œ๋งˆ๋””๋กœ ๋‚™์ˆ˜ ํšจ๊ณผ๊ฐ€ ์ผ์–ด๋‚˜์ง€ ์•Š์•˜๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:06
This appears to be a trend:
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์ด๋Ÿฐ ํ˜„์ƒ์€ ์„ธ๊ณ„์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:08
in a study over multiple periods of history and across 18 countries,
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๋‹ค์ˆ˜์˜ ์—ญ์‚ฌ์  ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„์— ๊ฑธ์ณ
18๊ฐœ๊ตญ์„ ๋Œ€์ƒ์œผ๋กœ ํ•œ ๋Ÿฐ๋˜ ์ •๊ฒฝ๋Œ€์˜ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅด๋ฉด,
03:12
The London School of Economics found that cutting taxes
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๊ฐ์„ธ๋Š” ์ƒ์œ„ 1%์˜ ๋ถ€๋Š” ์ฆ๊ฐ€์‹œ์ผฐ์ง€๋งŒ
03:16
increased the wealth of the top 1% of people,
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03:19
but had little effect on the economy as a whole.
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๊ฒฝ์ œ ์ „๋ฐ˜์—๋Š” ๊ฑฐ์˜ ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ๋ฏธ์น˜์ง€ ์•Š์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:22
In order for tax cuts for the rich to truly stimulate the economy,
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๊ณ ์†Œ๋“์ธต ๊ฐ์„ธ๊ฐ€ ์‹ค์ œ๋กœ ๊ฒฝ์ œ์  ํšจ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ๋ถˆ๋Ÿฌ์˜ค๋ ค๋ฉด
03:26
they would have to spend the saved money
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๊ทธ๋“ค์ด ์ถ•์ ํ•œ ๋ˆ์„
03:29
putting it back into, for example, local businessesโ€”
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์˜ˆ์ปจ๋Œ€ ์ง€์—ญ ์‚ฐ์—… ๊ฐ™์€, ๊ฒฝ์ œ์— ์žฌํˆฌ์žํ•ด์•ผ ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ
03:32
but this isnโ€™t what happens in practice.
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์‹ค์ œ๋กœ๋Š” ์ด๋Ÿฐ ์ผ์ด ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:35
No economic policy operates in isolation:
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๋‹จ๋…์œผ๋กœ ํšจ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ๋‚ด๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์ œ ์ •์ฑ…์€ ์—†์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:38
each time and place is unique with multiple policies in place simultaneously,
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๊ฐ™์ด ์‹œํ–‰๋˜๋Š” ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์ •์ฑ…๋“ค, ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์‹œ๊ธฐ์™€ ์žฅ์†Œ๋Š” ๊ณ ์œ ํ•˜๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์—
03:43
so there is only ever one test case for each set of scenarios.
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์–ด๋–ค ํŠน๋ณ„ํ•œ ์ƒํ™ฉ์— ๋งž๋Š” ์‚ฌ๋ก€๋Š” ๋‹จ ํ•˜๋‚˜ ๋ฟ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:47
This makes it difficult to deliver definitive rulings on whether
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์–ด๋–ค ๊ฒฝ์ œ ์ •์ฑ…์ด ์‹ค์ œ๋กœ ์„ฑ๊ณต์ ์ด์—ˆ๋Š”์ง€
03:51
an economic policy worked,
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03:52
whether something else might have worked better,
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๋” ๋‚˜์€ ์ •์ฑ…์ด ์žˆ์—ˆ๋Š”์ง€,
03:54
or whether it would work in a different situation.
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์•„๋‹ˆ๋ฉด ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์ƒํ™ฉ์—๋„ ์ ํ•ฉํ• ์ง€ ๋‹จ์–ธํ•˜๊ธฐ๋Š” ํž˜๋“ญ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:57
And yet, rhetoric around trickle-down economics,
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๊ทธ๋Ÿผ์—๋„, ๋ ˆ์ด๊ฑด ์ง‘๊ถŒ๊ธฐ์™€ ๊ทธ ์ดํ›„๋กœ
04:01
both during the Reagan era and since,
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๋‚™์ˆ˜ ๊ฒฝ์ œ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ฃผ์žฅ๋“ค์€
04:03
often promises something definitive:
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ํ™•์‹คํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ด ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ž์ฃผ ๋งํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:06
that spending by societyโ€™s richest members on things other than taxes
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์ฆ‰, ์‚ฌํšŒ์˜ ๊ณ ์†Œ๋“์ธต์ด ์„ธ๊ธˆ ์ด์™ธ์˜ ๋ถ€๋ฌธ์— ์ง€์ถœํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด
04:11
directly improves the financial circumstances of the less wealthy.
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์ €์†Œ๋“์ธต์˜ ๊ฒฝ์ œ ์ƒํ™ฉ์„ ์ง์ ‘์ ์œผ๋กœ ์˜ฌ๋ ค์ค€๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:15
And thereโ€™s not much evidence to support that.
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์ด ์ฃผ์žฅ์„ ๋’ท๋ฐ›์นจํ•˜๋Š” ์ฆ๊ฑฐ๋Š” ๋ณ„๋กœ ์—†์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
์ด ์›น์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ ์ •๋ณด

์ด ์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ๋Š” ์˜์–ด ํ•™์Šต์— ์œ ์šฉํ•œ YouTube ๋™์˜์ƒ์„ ์†Œ๊ฐœํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ „ ์„ธ๊ณ„ ์ตœ๊ณ ์˜ ์„ ์ƒ๋‹˜๋“ค์ด ๊ฐ€๋ฅด์น˜๋Š” ์˜์–ด ์ˆ˜์—…์„ ๋ณด๊ฒŒ ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ฐ ๋™์˜์ƒ ํŽ˜์ด์ง€์— ํ‘œ์‹œ๋˜๋Š” ์˜์–ด ์ž๋ง‰์„ ๋”๋ธ” ํด๋ฆญํ•˜๋ฉด ๊ทธ๊ณณ์—์„œ ๋™์˜์ƒ์ด ์žฌ์ƒ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋น„๋””์˜ค ์žฌ์ƒ์— ๋งž์ถฐ ์ž๋ง‰์ด ์Šคํฌ๋กค๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์˜๊ฒฌ์ด๋‚˜ ์š”์ฒญ์ด ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ์ด ๋ฌธ์˜ ์–‘์‹์„ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹ญ์‹œ์˜ค.

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