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翻译人员: Cosmo Cao
校对人员: Shu Fei Chow
00:06
Every day, billions of stocks are traded
on the New York Stock Exchange alone.
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仅仅在纽约证券交易所,
每天就有数十亿的股票被交易。
00:11
But with over 43,000 companies listed
on stock exchanges around the world,
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然而,有超过 43000 家公司的股票
都能在全球证券交易所进行交易,
00:17
how do investors decide
which stocks to buy?
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投资者该怎么决定
要买哪些股票?
00:21
To answer this question, it’s important
to first understand what stocks are,
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为了回答这个问题,
我们首先要了解股票是什么,
00:26
and what individuals and institutions
hope to achieve by investing in them.
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以及个人和机构
希望通过投资获得什么样的回报。
00:31
Stocks are partial shares
of ownership in a company.
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股票,是一个公司
所有权的部分股权。
00:35
So by buying a stock, investors buy
a share in the company’s success—
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通过购买股票,投资者就
投资了公司的一部分成功——
00:39
or failure—
as measured by the company’s profits.
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或者一部分失败——
这取决于该公司的利润。
00:43
A stock’s price is determined
by the number
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一支股票的价钱取决于
00:46
of buyers and sellers trading it;
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股票交易的买卖人数;
00:48
if there are more buyers than sellers,
the price will increase, and vice versa.
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如果买的人比卖的人多,
股票价格就会增长,反之亦然。
00:53
The market price of a share
therefore represents
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股票的市场价格代表了
00:56
what buyers and sellers believe the stock,
and by association the company,
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买卖双方对股票的看法,
以及对公司价值的看法。
01:01
is worth.
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01:03
So the price can change dramatically
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因此,股价可能会根据
投资者是否认为
01:05
based on whether investors think
the company has a high potential
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该公司有提高盈利能力的
巨大潜力而发生剧烈变化,
01:08
for increasing profitability—
even if it isn’t profitable yet.
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即使该公司暂时还没有盈利。
01:13
Investors aim to make money
by purchasing stocks
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投资者通常为了盈利而购买
01:16
whose value will increase over time.
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随着时间增值的股票。
01:19
Some investors aim simply to grow
their money at a faster rate
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有些投资者只追求
短时间内的利润,
01:22
than inflation diminishes its value.
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从而避免通货膨胀
而导致利润减少。
01:25
Others have a goal
of “beating the market,”
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其他投资者则持有
“击败市场” 的目标,
01:28
which means growing their money
at a faster rate
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也就是让他们的资金增长速度
快过所有公司股票的
累计收益表现。
01:31
than the cumulative performance
of all companies’ stocks.
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01:35
This idea of “beating the market”
is a source of debate among investors—
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这种“击败市场”的想法
引起了很多投资者的争论——
01:39
in fact, investors break
into two main groups over it.
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事实上,基于这一想法,
投资者可以大致分为两派。
01:43
Active investors believe it is possible
to beat the market
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积极投资者认为
01:46
by strategically selecting specific stocks
and timing their trades,
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有可能通过选择特定股票
和交易时机来击败市场,
01:51
while passive investors believe it isn’t
usually possible to beat the market,
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而被动投资者认为,
市场几乎不可能被击败,
01:56
and don’t subscribe to stock picking.
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而且不会刻意选择
某些股票进行投资。
01:59
The phrase “beating the market”
usually refers to earning a return
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“击败市场”这个说法通常是指,
在超过标准普尔 500 指数(S&P500)的
02:03
on an investment that exceeds
the Standard & Poor 500 index.
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投资中获得回报。
02:08
The S&P 500 is a measure
of the average performance
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S&P 500 是一个针对
美国最大的 500 家公司
平均表现的衡量标准,
02:12
of 500 of the largest companies
in the United States,
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02:15
weighted by company valuation,
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以公司估值为加权,
02:18
meaning that companies
with a higher market value
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也就是说,市场价值较高的公司,
02:20
have a larger effect on the S&P—
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对 S&P 指数有着更大的影响——
02:23
again, market value corresponds
to what investors
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重申一下,市场价值反映的是
投资者所认可的公司价值,
02:26
believe a company is worth
rather than actual profits.
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而不是该公司的实际利润。
02:30
The S&P doesn’t directly represent
the market as a whole—
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S&P 并不能直接反应整个市场——
02:34
many small and mid-range stocks can
fluctuate according to different patterns.
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很多小型和中小型股票价格
会随着不同趋势而产生波动。
02:38
Still, it’s a pretty good proxy
for the overall market.
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即使这样,S&P 500 依然是
评估整体市场的一个有效指标。
02:42
It’s often said that
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人们常说,
02:43
“the stock market behaves
like a voting machine in the short term,
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“短期来看,股市就像一台投票机器,
02:46
and a weighing machine in the long term”—
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而长远来看,则更像一个秤重机。”
02:49
meaning short term fluctuations
in stock prices reflect public opinion,
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这就意味着,短期的市场波动
反映了大众的看法,
02:54
but over the longer term, they do tend
to actually reflect companies’ profits.
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但长远来看,它们往往
能真实地反映出公司的盈利状况。
03:01
Active investors aim to exploit
the short term,
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积极投资者的目标就是
03:04
“voting machine” aspect of the market.
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利用短期内的市场
“投票机器”原理获益。
03:07
They believe the market
contains inefficiencies:
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他们认为市场的
整体反应相对迟缓:
03:09
that stock prices at any given point
in time may overvalue some companies,
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股价价格在特定时间内
会高估一些公司的价值,
03:14
undervalue others, or fail to reflect
developments that will impact the market.
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低估其他的,或者无法有效地反映出
能够对市场产生影响的发展趋势。
03:20
Active investors hope to exploit
these inefficiencies by buying stocks
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积极投资者希望
利用市场的滞后效应,
03:24
they think are priced low.
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买进价格过低的股票。
03:26
To identify undervalued stocks,
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为了辨认被低估的股票,
03:29
they may investigate a company’s
business operations,
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他们会调查公司的商业营运状况,
03:32
analyze its financial statements,
observe price trends, or use algorithms.
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分析其财务报告,观察价格走势,
或运用计算机算法。
03:38
Passive investors, by contrast,
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反之,被动投资者
03:41
put their faith in the long term
“weighing machine” aspect of the market.
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把希望寄托在长期的、
“秤重机”模式下的市场形势。
03:45
They believe that even though markets may
exhibit inefficiencies at any given point,
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他们认为,股市虽然
在特定时间点会表现得信息滞后,
03:49
over time those inefficiencies
balance out—
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但随着时间的推移,
这种滞后就会被抵消掉——
03:52
so if they buy a selection of stocks that
represents a cross-section of the market,
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如果买进的股票能够反映
整个市场的大体趋势,
03:57
over time it will grow.
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随着时间的推移,就会实现增值。
04:00
This is usually accomplished
through index funds,
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这一过程通常是通过
“指数基金(index fund)”来实现,
04:03
collections of stocks that represent
the broader market.
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即一类代表更广泛市场的股票集合。
04:06
The S&P 500 index is one of many indexes.
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S&P 500 只是众多指数的其中一种。
04:10
The overall goal is the same
for all index funds:
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所有的指数基金
都有共同的目标:
04:14
to hold stocks for the long term
and ignore short-term market fluctuations.
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长期持有股票,
忽视短期市场波动。
04:19
Ultimately, active and passive investing
aren’t mutually exclusive—
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如此一来,积极式投资
和被动式投资就并非水火不容——
04:24
many investment strategies
have elements of each,
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不同的投资策略都有各自的原理,
04:27
for example, choosing stocks actively
but holding them for the long term
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比如,被动式投资通常会建议
04:31
as passive investing advises.
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积极选股,但长期持有。
04:34
Investing is far from an exact science:
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投资绝非一门精准的科学学科:
04:36
if there was one foolproof method,
everyone would be doing it.
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如果存在万无一失的投资手段,
那么所有人都会趋之若鹜。
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