How do investors choose stocks? - Richard Coffin

翻译人员: Cosmo Cao 校对人员: Shu Fei Chow

Every day, billions of stocks are traded on the New York Stock Exchange alone.

仅仅在纽约证券交易所， 每天就有数十亿的股票被交易。

But with over 43,000 companies listed on stock exchanges around the world,

然而，有超过 43000 家公司的股票 都能在全球证券交易所进行交易，

how do investors decide which stocks to buy?

投资者该怎么决定 要买哪些股票？

To answer this question, it’s important to first understand what stocks are,

为了回答这个问题， 我们首先要了解股票是什么，

and what individuals and institutions hope to achieve by investing in them.

以及个人和机构 希望通过投资获得什么样的回报。

Stocks are partial shares of ownership in a company.

股票，是一个公司 所有权的部分股权。

So by buying a stock, investors buy a share in the company’s success—

通过购买股票，投资者就 投资了公司的一部分成功——

or failure— as measured by the company’s profits.

或者一部分失败—— 这取决于该公司的利润。

A stock’s price is determined by the number

一支股票的价钱取决于

of buyers and sellers trading it;

股票交易的买卖人数；

if there are more buyers than sellers, the price will increase, and vice versa.

如果买的人比卖的人多， 股票价格就会增长，反之亦然。

The market price of a share therefore represents

股票的市场价格代表了

what buyers and sellers believe the stock, and by association the company,

买卖双方对股票的看法，

以及对公司价值的看法。

is worth.

So the price can change dramatically

因此，股价可能会根据 投资者是否认为

based on whether investors think the company has a high potential

该公司有提高盈利能力的 巨大潜力而发生剧烈变化，

for increasing profitability— even if it isn’t profitable yet.

即使该公司暂时还没有盈利。

Investors aim to make money by purchasing stocks

投资者通常为了盈利而购买

whose value will increase over time.

随着时间增值的股票。

Some investors aim simply to grow their money at a faster rate

有些投资者只追求 短时间内的利润，

than inflation diminishes its value.

从而避免通货膨胀 而导致利润减少。

Others have a goal of “beating the market,”

其他投资者则持有 “击败市场” 的目标，

which means growing their money at a faster rate

也就是让他们的资金增长速度

快过所有公司股票的 累计收益表现。

than the cumulative performance of all companies’ stocks.

This idea of “beating the market” is a source of debate among investors—

这种“击败市场”的想法 引起了很多投资者的争论——

in fact, investors break into two main groups over it.

事实上，基于这一想法， 投资者可以大致分为两派。

Active investors believe it is possible to beat the market

积极投资者认为

by strategically selecting specific stocks and timing their trades,

有可能通过选择特定股票 和交易时机来击败市场，

while passive investors believe it isn’t usually possible to beat the market,

而被动投资者认为， 市场几乎不可能被击败，

and don’t subscribe to stock picking.

而且不会刻意选择 某些股票进行投资。

The phrase “beating the market” usually refers to earning a return

“击败市场”这个说法通常是指， 在超过标准普尔 500 指数（S&P500）的

on an investment that exceeds the Standard & Poor 500 index.

投资中获得回报。

The S&P 500 is a measure of the average performance

S&P 500 是一个针对

美国最大的 500 家公司 平均表现的衡量标准，

of 500 of the largest companies in the United States,

weighted by company valuation,

以公司估值为加权，

meaning that companies with a higher market value

也就是说，市场价值较高的公司，

have a larger effect on the S&P—

对 S&P 指数有着更大的影响——

again, market value corresponds to what investors

重申一下，市场价值反映的是 投资者所认可的公司价值，

believe a company is worth rather than actual profits.

而不是该公司的实际利润。

The S&P doesn’t directly represent the market as a whole—

S&P 并不能直接反应整个市场——

many small and mid-range stocks can fluctuate according to different patterns.

很多小型和中小型股票价格 会随着不同趋势而产生波动。

Still, it’s a pretty good proxy for the overall market.

即使这样，S&P 500 依然是 评估整体市场的一个有效指标。

It’s often said that

人们常说，

“the stock market behaves like a voting machine in the short term,

“短期来看，股市就像一台投票机器，

and a weighing machine in the long term”—

而长远来看，则更像一个秤重机。”

meaning short term fluctuations in stock prices reflect public opinion,

这就意味着，短期的市场波动 反映了大众的看法，

but over the longer term, they do tend to actually reflect companies’ profits.

但长远来看，它们往往 能真实地反映出公司的盈利状况。

Active investors aim to exploit the short term,

积极投资者的目标就是

“voting machine” aspect of the market.

利用短期内的市场 “投票机器”原理获益。

They believe the market contains inefficiencies:

他们认为市场的 整体反应相对迟缓：

that stock prices at any given point in time may overvalue some companies,

股价价格在特定时间内 会高估一些公司的价值，

undervalue others, or fail to reflect developments that will impact the market.

低估其他的，或者无法有效地反映出 能够对市场产生影响的发展趋势。

Active investors hope to exploit these inefficiencies by buying stocks

积极投资者希望 利用市场的滞后效应，

they think are priced low.

买进价格过低的股票。

To identify undervalued stocks,

为了辨认被低估的股票，

they may investigate a company’s business operations,

他们会调查公司的商业营运状况，

analyze its financial statements, observe price trends, or use algorithms.

分析其财务报告，观察价格走势， 或运用计算机算法。

Passive investors, by contrast,

反之，被动投资者

put their faith in the long term “weighing machine” aspect of the market.

把希望寄托在长期的、 “秤重机”模式下的市场形势。

They believe that even though markets may exhibit inefficiencies at any given point,

他们认为，股市虽然 在特定时间点会表现得信息滞后，

over time those inefficiencies balance out—

但随着时间的推移， 这种滞后就会被抵消掉——

so if they buy a selection of stocks that represents a cross-section of the market,

如果买进的股票能够反映 整个市场的大体趋势，

over time it will grow.

随着时间的推移，就会实现增值。

This is usually accomplished through index funds,

这一过程通常是通过 “指数基金（index fund）”来实现，

collections of stocks that represent the broader market.

即一类代表更广泛市场的股票集合。

The S&P 500 index is one of many indexes.

S&P 500 只是众多指数的其中一种。

The overall goal is the same for all index funds:

所有的指数基金 都有共同的目标：

to hold stocks for the long term and ignore short-term market fluctuations.

长期持有股票， 忽视短期市场波动。

Ultimately, active and passive investing aren’t mutually exclusive—

如此一来，积极式投资 和被动式投资就并非水火不容——

many investment strategies have elements of each,

不同的投资策略都有各自的原理，

for example, choosing stocks actively but holding them for the long term

比如，被动式投资通常会建议

as passive investing advises.

积极选股，但长期持有。

Investing is far from an exact science:

投资绝非一门精准的科学学科：

if there was one foolproof method, everyone would be doing it.

如果存在万无一失的投资手段， 那么所有人都会趋之若鹜。