How do investors choose stocks? - Richard Coffin

944,668 views ・ 2020-11-10

TED-Ed


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譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Helen Chang
00:06
Every day, billions of stocks are traded on the New York Stock Exchange alone.
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每天光是在紐約證券交易所 就有數十億股的股票成交。
00:11
But with over 43,000 companies listed on stock exchanges around the world,
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但全世界有四萬三千多家上市公司,
00:17
how do investors decide which stocks to buy?
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投資者要如何決定該買哪些股票呢?
00:21
To answer this question, it’s important to first understand what stocks are,
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要解答這個問題, 重要的是先要了解股票是什麼,
00:26
and what individuals and institutions hope to achieve by investing in them.
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以及個人與機關投資股票 希望達成什麼目的。
00:31
Stocks are partial shares of ownership in a company.
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股票是公司的部分所有權。
00:35
So by buying a stock, investors buy a share in the company’s success—
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投資者購買一股股票 就等於購買了一份該公司的成敗
00:39
or failure— as measured by the company’s profits.
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——用公司的利潤來衡量。
00:43
A stock’s price is determined by the number
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決定股價的是
交易股票的買家和賣家數量;
00:46
of buyers and sellers trading it;
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00:48
if there are more buyers than sellers, the price will increase, and vice versa.
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買家和賣家比較多就會提高價格,
反之亦然。
00:53
The market price of a share therefore represents
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因此股票的市價代表
00:56
what buyers and sellers believe the stock, and by association the company,
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買家和賣家相信 這支股票有多少價值,
連帶就是公司有多少價值。
01:01
is worth.
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01:03
So the price can change dramatically
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所以價格有可能變動很大,
01:05
based on whether investors think the company has a high potential
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其根據是投資者認為 公司的獲利潛能高不高——
01:08
for increasing profitability— even if it isn’t profitable yet.
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即使當時尚未獲利。
01:13
Investors aim to make money by purchasing stocks
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投資者旨在透過股票賺錢,
01:16
whose value will increase over time.
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買那些會隨時間增值的股票。
01:19
Some investors aim simply to grow their money at a faster rate
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有些投資者僅著眼於標的物的增值
01:22
than inflation diminishes its value.
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超過通貨膨脹造成的貶值;
01:25
Others have a goal of “beating the market,”
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其他人則要「勝過市場指數」,
01:28
which means growing their money at a faster rate
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意即讓他們投資的成長速度
01:31
than the cumulative performance of all companies’ stocks.
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超過所有公司股票的累積績效。
01:35
This idea of “beating the market” is a source of debate among investors—
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投資者常為「勝過市場指數」的 想法而爭論——
01:39
in fact, investors break into two main groups over it.
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事實上投資者為此主要可分成兩派。
01:43
Active investors believe it is possible to beat the market
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積極型的投資者相信能勝過市場指數,
01:46
by strategically selecting specific stocks and timing their trades,
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只要策略性地選擇 特定的股票和交易的時機,
01:51
while passive investors believe it isn’t usually possible to beat the market,
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而消極型的投資者則相信 通常不可能勝過市場指數,
01:56
and don’t subscribe to stock picking.
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因此不參與選股。
01:59
The phrase “beating the market” usually refers to earning a return
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「勝過市場指數」一詞通常指
投資報酬率超過標準普爾五百指數。
02:03
on an investment that exceeds the Standard & Poor 500 index.
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02:08
The S&P 500 is a measure of the average performance
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標準普爾五百指數衡量的是
美國五百大企業的平均績效表現,
02:12
of 500 of the largest companies in the United States,
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02:15
weighted by company valuation,
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用企業的估定價格來加權,
02:18
meaning that companies with a higher market value
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也就是說,市值比較高的公司
02:20
have a larger effect on the S&P—
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對標準普爾五百指數 有比較大的影響——
02:23
again, market value corresponds to what investors
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同樣的,市值對應的就是投資者
02:26
believe a company is worth rather than actual profits.
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相信公司有多少價值, 而不是實際的利潤。
02:30
The S&P doesn’t directly represent the market as a whole—
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標準普爾五百指數 並不直接代表整個市場——
02:34
many small and mid-range stocks can fluctuate according to different patterns.
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許多中小範圍的股票可能會 根據不同的模式在波動。
02:38
Still, it’s a pretty good proxy for the overall market.
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不過,用它來當整體市場的 近似值仍然很不錯。
02:42
It’s often said that
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常有人說「短期的股市行為像投票機,
02:43
“the stock market behaves like a voting machine in the short term,
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02:46
and a weighing machine in the long term”—
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長期則像體重機」——
02:49
meaning short term fluctuations in stock prices reflect public opinion,
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意思是,短期的股價波動 反應公眾的意見,
02:54
but over the longer term, they do tend to actually reflect companies’ profits.
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但更長期來看,
股價其實傾向於反應公司的利潤。
03:01
Active investors aim to exploit the short term,
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積極型投資者的目標是要利用短期
03:04
“voting machine” aspect of the market.
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即市場的「投票機」面向。
03:07
They believe the market contains inefficiencies:
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他們相信市場中必有效率不足:
03:09
that stock prices at any given point in time may overvalue some companies,
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在任何時點的股價
都可能高估某些公司、 低估另一些公司,
03:14
undervalue others, or fail to reflect developments that will impact the market.
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或無法反映出會影響市場的發展。
03:20
Active investors hope to exploit these inefficiencies by buying stocks
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積極型的投資者會買進 他們認為價格被低估的股票,
03:24
they think are priced low.
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就是在利用這些效率不足。
03:26
To identify undervalued stocks,
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為了辨視出低估的股票,
03:29
they may investigate a company’s business operations,
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他們可能會去調查公司的事業營運、
03:32
analyze its financial statements, observe price trends, or use algorithms.
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分析其財務報表、
觀察價格趨勢,或使用演算法。
03:38
Passive investors, by contrast,
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相對的,消極型的投資者
03:41
put their faith in the long term “weighing machine” aspect of the market.
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會把他們的信心放在 市場的長期「體重機」面向。
03:45
They believe that even though markets may exhibit inefficiencies at any given point,
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他們相信,就算市場任何時點 都可能會效率不足,
03:49
over time those inefficiencies balance out—
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這些效率不足會隨著時趨於平衡,
03:52
so if they buy a selection of stocks that represents a cross-section of the market,
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所以如果選擇購買的股票 能代表市場的縱切面,
03:57
over time it will grow.
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隨時間就會增值。
04:00
This is usually accomplished through index funds,
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通常會用指數基金來達成這個目標,
04:03
collections of stocks that represent the broader market.
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也就是代表更廣大市場的股票組合。
04:06
The S&P 500 index is one of many indexes.
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標準普爾五百指數 就是許多指數之一。
04:10
The overall goal is the same for all index funds:
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所有指數基金的總體目標是相同的:
04:14
to hold stocks for the long term and ignore short-term market fluctuations.
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長期持股,並忽略短期市場波動。
04:19
Ultimately, active and passive investing aren’t mutually exclusive—
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歸根結底,積極和消極型的投資 並不完全互斥——
04:24
many investment strategies have elements of each,
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許多投資策略兼具這兩元素,
04:27
for example, choosing stocks actively but holding them for the long term
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比如,積極選擇股票,
但照消極型的投資建議而長期持有。
04:31
as passive investing advises.
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04:34
Investing is far from an exact science:
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投資完全不是精確的科學:
04:36
if there was one foolproof method, everyone would be doing it.
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若有防呆的方法,早就被大家用上了。
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