How do investors choose stocks? - Richard Coffin

譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Helen Chang

Every day, billions of stocks are traded on the New York Stock Exchange alone.

每天光是在紐約證券交易所 就有數十億股的股票成交。

But with over 43,000 companies listed on stock exchanges around the world,

但全世界有四萬三千多家上市公司，

how do investors decide which stocks to buy?

投資者要如何決定該買哪些股票呢？

To answer this question, it’s important to first understand what stocks are,

要解答這個問題， 重要的是先要了解股票是什麼，

and what individuals and institutions hope to achieve by investing in them.

以及個人與機關投資股票 希望達成什麼目的。

Stocks are partial shares of ownership in a company.

股票是公司的部分所有權。

So by buying a stock, investors buy a share in the company’s success—

投資者購買一股股票 就等於購買了一份該公司的成敗

or failure— as measured by the company’s profits.

——用公司的利潤來衡量。

A stock’s price is determined by the number

決定股價的是

交易股票的買家和賣家數量；

of buyers and sellers trading it;

if there are more buyers than sellers, the price will increase, and vice versa.

買家和賣家比較多就會提高價格，

反之亦然。

The market price of a share therefore represents

因此股票的市價代表

what buyers and sellers believe the stock, and by association the company,

買家和賣家相信 這支股票有多少價值，

連帶就是公司有多少價值。

is worth.

So the price can change dramatically

所以價格有可能變動很大，

based on whether investors think the company has a high potential

其根據是投資者認為 公司的獲利潛能高不高——

for increasing profitability— even if it isn’t profitable yet.

即使當時尚未獲利。

Investors aim to make money by purchasing stocks

投資者旨在透過股票賺錢，

whose value will increase over time.

買那些會隨時間增值的股票。

Some investors aim simply to grow their money at a faster rate

有些投資者僅著眼於標的物的增值

than inflation diminishes its value.

超過通貨膨脹造成的貶值；

Others have a goal of “beating the market,”

其他人則要「勝過市場指數」，

which means growing their money at a faster rate

意即讓他們投資的成長速度

than the cumulative performance of all companies’ stocks.

超過所有公司股票的累積績效。

This idea of “beating the market” is a source of debate among investors—

投資者常為「勝過市場指數」的 想法而爭論——

in fact, investors break into two main groups over it.

事實上投資者為此主要可分成兩派。

Active investors believe it is possible to beat the market

積極型的投資者相信能勝過市場指數，

by strategically selecting specific stocks and timing their trades,

只要策略性地選擇 特定的股票和交易的時機，

while passive investors believe it isn’t usually possible to beat the market,

而消極型的投資者則相信 通常不可能勝過市場指數，

and don’t subscribe to stock picking.

因此不參與選股。

The phrase “beating the market” usually refers to earning a return

「勝過市場指數」一詞通常指

投資報酬率超過標準普爾五百指數。

on an investment that exceeds the Standard & Poor 500 index.

The S&P 500 is a measure of the average performance

標準普爾五百指數衡量的是

美國五百大企業的平均績效表現，

of 500 of the largest companies in the United States,

weighted by company valuation,

用企業的估定價格來加權，

meaning that companies with a higher market value

也就是說，市值比較高的公司

have a larger effect on the S&P—

對標準普爾五百指數 有比較大的影響——

again, market value corresponds to what investors

同樣的，市值對應的就是投資者

believe a company is worth rather than actual profits.

相信公司有多少價值， 而不是實際的利潤。

The S&P doesn’t directly represent the market as a whole—

標準普爾五百指數 並不直接代表整個市場——

many small and mid-range stocks can fluctuate according to different patterns.

許多中小範圍的股票可能會 根據不同的模式在波動。

Still, it’s a pretty good proxy for the overall market.

不過，用它來當整體市場的 近似值仍然很不錯。

It’s often said that

常有人說「短期的股市行為像投票機，

“the stock market behaves like a voting machine in the short term,

and a weighing machine in the long term”—

長期則像體重機」——

meaning short term fluctuations in stock prices reflect public opinion,

意思是，短期的股價波動 反應公眾的意見，

but over the longer term, they do tend to actually reflect companies’ profits.

但更長期來看，

股價其實傾向於反應公司的利潤。

Active investors aim to exploit the short term,

積極型投資者的目標是要利用短期

“voting machine” aspect of the market.

即市場的「投票機」面向。

They believe the market contains inefficiencies:

他們相信市場中必有效率不足：

that stock prices at any given point in time may overvalue some companies,

在任何時點的股價

都可能高估某些公司、 低估另一些公司，

undervalue others, or fail to reflect developments that will impact the market.

或無法反映出會影響市場的發展。

Active investors hope to exploit these inefficiencies by buying stocks

積極型的投資者會買進 他們認為價格被低估的股票，

they think are priced low.

就是在利用這些效率不足。

To identify undervalued stocks,

為了辨視出低估的股票，

they may investigate a company’s business operations,

他們可能會去調查公司的事業營運、

analyze its financial statements, observe price trends, or use algorithms.

分析其財務報表、

觀察價格趨勢，或使用演算法。

Passive investors, by contrast,

相對的，消極型的投資者

put their faith in the long term “weighing machine” aspect of the market.

會把他們的信心放在 市場的長期「體重機」面向。

They believe that even though markets may exhibit inefficiencies at any given point,

他們相信，就算市場任何時點 都可能會效率不足，

over time those inefficiencies balance out—

這些效率不足會隨著時趨於平衡，

so if they buy a selection of stocks that represents a cross-section of the market,

所以如果選擇購買的股票 能代表市場的縱切面，

over time it will grow.

隨時間就會增值。

This is usually accomplished through index funds,

通常會用指數基金來達成這個目標，

collections of stocks that represent the broader market.

也就是代表更廣大市場的股票組合。

The S&P 500 index is one of many indexes.

標準普爾五百指數 就是許多指數之一。

The overall goal is the same for all index funds:

所有指數基金的總體目標是相同的：

to hold stocks for the long term and ignore short-term market fluctuations.

長期持股，並忽略短期市場波動。

Ultimately, active and passive investing aren’t mutually exclusive—

歸根結底，積極和消極型的投資 並不完全互斥——

many investment strategies have elements of each,

許多投資策略兼具這兩元素，

for example, choosing stocks actively but holding them for the long term

比如，積極選擇股票，

但照消極型的投資建議而長期持有。

as passive investing advises.

Investing is far from an exact science:

投資完全不是精確的科學：

if there was one foolproof method, everyone would be doing it.

若有防呆的方法，早就被大家用上了。