How megacities are changing the map of the world | Parag Khanna

譯者: 易帆 余 審譯者: Mingyang Han

I want you to reimagine how life is organized on earth.

我要各位重新想像一下，

地球上的生活是如何被組織起來的。

Think of the planet like a human body that we inhabit.

想像一下我們居住的地球 像是一個人類的身體。

The skeleton is the transportation system of roads and railways,

身體的骨架是運輸系統， 有道路和鐵路、

bridges and tunnels, air and seaports

橋樑、隧道、機場、海港

that enable our mobility across the continents.

讓我們可以在世界各國旅行。

The vascular system that powers the body

像我們的心血管系統， 驅動著我們的身體，

are the oil and gas pipelines and electricity grids.

則是石油天然氣管線及電力網路，

that distribute energy.

可以運送能量。

And the nervous system of communications

負責溝通的神經系統，

is the Internet cables, satellites, cellular networks

有網路纜線、衛星、行動網路、

and data centers that allow us to share information.

以及資料中心可以讓我們分享資訊。

This ever-expanding infrastructural matrix

這個一直不斷擴張的 基礎建設矩陣，

already consists of 64 million kilometers of roads,

已經建造了 6400 萬公里的道路、

four million kilometers of railways,

400 萬公里的鐵路、

two million kilometers of pipelines

200 萬公里的管道線路

and one million kilometers of Internet cables.

以及 100 萬公里的網路纜線。

What about international borders?

那國與國的國界線呢？

We have less than 500,000 kilometers of borders.

我們至少有 50 萬公里的國界線。

Let's build a better map of the world.

讓我們來建立一個更好的世界地圖。

And we can start by overcoming some ancient mythology.

我們可以從打破 一些古老的錯誤觀念開始。

There's a saying with which all students of history are familiar:

歷史系的學生對這句話都很孰悉：

"Geography is destiny."

「地緣性決定了命運。」

Sounds so grave, doesn't it?

聽起來很嚴肅莊重，對吧？

It's such a fatalistic adage.

多麼宿命的一句格言。

It tells us that landlocked countries are condemned to be poor,

它告訴我們， 內陸國家就是注定貧窮，

that small countries cannot escape their larger neighbors,

小國無法逃脫鄰近大國的掌握，

that vast distances are insurmountable.

那遙遠的距離是無法逾越的。

But every journey I take around the world,

但在我世界各地的旅程當中，

I see an even greater force sweeping the planet:

我看到了一個更大的 趨勢正在席捲全球：

connectivity.

連結。

The global connectivity revolution, in all of its forms --

全球連結的革命，以這些形式──

transportation, energy and communications --

運輸、能源、通訊──

has enabled such a quantum leap in the mobility of people,

這些連結使得流動性人口、

of goods, of resources, of knowledge,

貨物、資源、知識， 有了跳躍性的增長，

such that we can no longer even think of geography as distinct from it.

我們再也不會認為地緣性 是造就彼此落差的原因。

In fact, I view the two forces as fusing together

事實上，我看見這兩股力量 正在融合成一個字：

into what I call "connectography."

我稱它為「連結地緣性」現象。

Connectography represents a quantum leap

連結地緣性現象，

象徵了流動性人口、 資源、想法的大躍進，

in the mobility of people, resources and ideas,

but it is an evolution,

但它也是一種演化現象，

an evolution of the world from political geography,

一種世界從法定國界的 「政治地緣性」

which is how we legally divide the world,

to functional geography,

演化到「地理機能性」的過程，

which is how we actually use the world,

即我們如何使用這個世界，

from nations and borders, to infrastructure and supply chains.

一種從國家與國界的關係演化到 基礎設施與供應鏈關係的過程。

Our global system is evolving

我們的全球系統正在演化，

from the vertically integrated empires of the 19th century,

從 19 世紀的垂直整合帝國時代，

through the horizontally interdependent nations of the 20th century,

演化到 20 世紀的 水平相互依存的國家時代，

into a global network civilization in the 21st century.

再進入到 21 世紀的 全球網路文明時代。

Connectivity, not sovereignty,

連結性，而非國家主權，

has become the organizing principle of the human species.

已經變成我們人類 相互連結的組織大綱。

(Applause)

（掌聲）

We are becoming this global network civilization

我們正在進入一種 全球網路文明的世代，

because we are literally building it.

因為這完全是由大家一起建立的。

All of the world's defense budgets and military spending taken together

全球的軍事預算加總起來，

total just under two trillion dollars per year.

每年都不到兩兆美金。

Meanwhile, our global infrastructure spending

同時間，全球的基礎設施費用

is projected to rise to nine trillion dollars per year

在未來的 10 年， 預計每年將達到 9 兆美金。

within the coming decade.

And, well, it should.

沒錯，本就該如此。

We have been living off an infrastructure stock

我們過去全球有 30 億人口 仰賴這些基礎建設生活，

meant for a world population of three billion,

as our population has crossed seven billion to eight billion

現在已經跨越 70 億， 邁向 80 億人口的大關，

and eventually nine billion and more.

而最終會超過 90 億人口。

As a rule of thumb, we should spend about one trillion dollars

根據經驗法則，

全球平均每 10 億人口， 就會有一兆美金的基礎建設開銷。

on the basic infrastructure needs of every billion people in the world.

Not surprisingly, Asia is in the lead.

想當然爾，亞洲就是領頭羊。

In 2015, China announced the creation

2015 年，中國宣布成立

of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank,

亞洲基礎建設投資銀行， （簡稱：亞投行）

which together with a network of other organizations

成立宗旨是，連結其它國家

aims to construct a network of iron and silk roads,

一起建立起 一帶一路的互聯經濟網。

stretching from Shanghai to Lisbon.

一路從上海延伸到里斯本，

And as all of this topographical engineering unfolds,

而因為這些重大地質工程的發展，

we will likely spend more on infrastructure in the next 40 years,

我們接下來的 40 年 將會增加很多基礎建設的開銷，

we will build more infrastructure in the next 40 years,

接下來 40 年所建的基礎建設

than we have in the past 4,000 years.

將會超過我們過去四千年來的總量。

Now let's stop and think about it for a minute.

現在，讓我們停下腳步想一想。

Spending so much more on building the foundations of global society

花這麼多錢在建築 全球社會的基礎工程上，

rather than on the tools to destroy it

比起建造出破壞地球的武器

can have profound consequences.

肯定有更深遠的影響。

Connectivity is how we optimize the distribution

連結性就是一門 我們要如何完善地分配

of people and resources around the world.

全球人力與資源的學問。

It is how mankind comes to be more than just the sum of its parts.

它是一門如何讓大家團結起來 不要各自分散資源的學問。

I believe that is what is happening.

我相信，這就是現在正在發生的事情。

Connectivity has a twin megatrend in the 21st century:

連結性在 21 世紀有股大趨勢：

planetary urbanization.

全球性的都市化。

Cities are the infrastructures that most define us.

都市的基礎設施定義了我們。

By 2030, more than two thirds of the world's population

到 2030 年前， 全球超過三分之二的人口

will live in cities.

會居住在城市裡。

And these are not mere little dots on the map,

這些人口居住的地方 並不是圖上的小光點，

but they are vast archipelagos stretching hundreds of kilometers.

而是延綿好幾百公里的 大型島狀光點。

Here we are in Vancouver,

這裡是我們現在的所在地溫哥華，

at the head of the Cascadia Corridor

從卡斯卡迪亞走廊的頂端

that stretches south across the US border to Seattle.

跨過美國邊境，向南延申到西雅圖。

The technology powerhouse of Silicon Valley

科技重鎮矽谷

begins north of San Francisco down to San Jose

從舊金山北部延伸到聖荷西，

and across the bay to Oakland.

橫跨一個海灣來到奧克蘭。

The sprawl of Los Angeles now passes San Diego

洛杉磯城市的延伸帶經過聖地亞哥

across the Mexican border to Tijuana.

跨過墨西哥邊境來到蒂華納。

San Diego and Tijuana now share an airport terminal

聖地亞哥和蒂華納 現在共用一個機場航站，

where you can exit into either country.

讓你可以進出兩邊的國家。

Eventually, a high-speed rail network may connect the entire Pacific spine.

最後，高速鐵路網可能會 連結整個東太平洋。

America's northeastern megalopolis begins in Boston through New York

美國東北部的超大型都會區， 從波士頓開始經過紐約

and Philadelphia to Washington.

和費城來到華盛頓。

It contains more than 50 million people

這裡面住了 5000 萬人口，

and also has plans for a high-speed rail network.

目前也有一個高速鐵路計畫。

But Asia is where we really see the megacities coming together.

但亞洲讓我們真正目睹了 大型都會區的百花齊放。

This continuous strip of light from Tokyo through Nagoya to Osaka

這條連續的光點從東京開始 經過名古屋到大阪，

contains more than 80 million people

裡面超過 8000 萬的人口，

and most of Japan's economy.

扛起了日本的主要經濟。

It is the world's largest megacity.

它目前是全世界最大的大型城市。

For now.

But in China, megacity clusters are coming together

在中國，人口到達一億的 超大型都會區也很多，

with populations reaching 100 million people.

The Bohai Rim around Beijing,

北京周邊的環渤海都會區，

The Yangtze River Delta around Shanghai

上海周邊的長江三角洲都會區，

and the Pearl River Delta,

與珠江三角洲周邊的都會區，

stretching from Hong Kong north to Guangzhou.

從香港往北延伸到廣州的都會區。

And in the middle,

在中間，

the Chongqing-Chengdu megacity cluster,

還有重慶 、 成都特大城市都會區，

whose geographic footprint is almost the same size

它們的地形面積幾乎與 奧地利這個國家差不多。

as the country of Austria.

And any number of these megacity clusters

而這些大型都會區，

has a GDP approaching two trillion dollars --

每一區都將近有二兆美金的 GDP──

that's almost the same as all of India today.

幾乎與今日的印度相當。

So imagine if our global diplomatic institutions, such as the G20,

所以，想像一下， 如果我們的全球外交機構，

像是 G20 高峰會，

were to base their membership on economic size

是用經濟規模而不是用國家代表

rather than national representation.

來做為入會資格的話。

Some Chinese megacities may be in and have a seat at the table,

有一些中國的大型城市， 有許都會有一席之地，

while entire countries, like Argentina or Indonesia would be out.

而像阿根廷和印尼這樣的 國家就沒有位子了。

Moving to India, whose population will soon exceed that of China,

我們來談談印度， 它的人口即將超越中國，

it too has a number of megacity clusters,

它也有一些超大型都會區，

such as the Delhi Capital Region

像是首都德里都會區

and Mumbai.

和孟買。

In the Middle East,

在中東，

Greater Tehran is absorbing one third of Iran's population.

大德黑蘭都會區容納了 三分之一伊朗的人口。

Most of Egypt's 80 million people

埃及的 8000 萬人口

live in the corridor between Cairo and Alexandria.

大部分都住在開羅和 亞歷山大之間的走廊。

And in the gulf, a necklace of city-states is forming,

而海灣、項鍊型的 衛星城市也正在成型，

from Bahrain and Qatar,

像是巴林和卡達，

through the United Arab Emirates to Muscat in Oman.

通過阿拉伯聯合大公國 到阿曼的馬斯卡特的都會區。

And then there's Lagos,

然後還有拉各斯都會區，

Africa's largest city and Nigeria's commercial hub.

在非洲最大的城市和 奈及利亞的商業中心，

It has plans for a rail network

有一個鐵路網的規劃，

that will make it the anchor of a vast Atlantic coastal corridor,

它在大西洋沿岸走廊 扮演了重要的角色，

stretching across Benin, Togo and Ghana,

鐵路橫跨了貝寧、多哥和加納，

to Abidjan, the capital of the Ivory Coast.

到阿比讓，象牙海岸的首都。

But these countries are suburbs of Lagos.

但是，這些國家都是拉各斯的城郊。

In a megacity world,

在大型城市的世界裡，

countries can be suburbs of cities.

國家會變成這些城市的城郊。

By 2030, we will have as many as 50 such megacity clusters in the world.

到 2030 年，全球將會有 50 個像這樣的超大型都會區。

So which map tells you more?

所以，哪一種地圖給你的資訊比較多？

Our traditional map of 200 discrete nations

是掛在我們自家牆上

傳統的 200 個獨立國家的地圖，

that hang on most of our walls,

or this map of the 50 megacity clusters?

還是這一張有 50 個 超大型都會區的地圖？

And yet, even this is incomplete

當然，即使這樣仍不夠完整，

because you cannot understand any individual megacity

因為，如果你沒有了解 它們彼此的連結性關係，

without understanding its connections to the others.

你也不會了解各別的大型城市。

People move to cities to be connected,

人們搬到城市裡被連結起來，

and connectivity is why these cities thrive.

而連結性造就了這些城市的繁榮。

Any number of them, such as Sao Paulo or Istanbul or Moscow,

其中任何一個城市，如聖保羅或 伊斯坦布爾或莫斯科，

has a GDP approaching or exceeding one third of one half

它們的 GDP 都已經高達或超過 整個國家 GDP 的 1/3 到 50%。

of their entire national GDP.

But equally importantly,

但同樣重要的是，

you cannot calculate any of their individual value

你也無法計算它們的個別價值，

without understanding the role of the flows of people,

如果你不了解它們的 人流、金流、科技

of finance, of technology

that enable them to thrive.

這些使它們繁榮的原因。

Take the Gauteng province of South Africa,

以南非的豪登省為例，

which contains Johannesburg and the capital Pretoria.

它包含了約翰尼斯堡 與首都比勒陀利亞。

It too represents just over a third of South Africa's GDP.

它的 GDP 表現也超過 1/3 的南非總體 GDP。

But equally importantly, it is home to the offices

但同樣重要的是， 它還有個出名的特色，

of almost every single multinational corporation

就是幾乎每一個跨國企業

that invests directly into South Africa

都有在南非做直接投資。

and indeed, into the entire African continent.

當然，也包含投資整個非洲大陸。

Cities want to be part of global value chains.

每個城市都想成為 全球價值鏈的一份子。

They want to be part of this global division of labor.

它們都想成為「全球分工」的一份子。

That is how cities think.

這是每個城市都在想的事。

I've never met a mayor who said to me,

我從未遇過一個市長跟我說，

"I want my city to be cut off."

「我想讓我的城市被排除掉。」

They know that their cities belong as much

他們知道，他們的城市 也是全球網路文明的一部分，

to the global network civilization as to their home countries.

就如同它們是 自己國家的一部分一樣。

Now, for many people, urbanization causes great dismay.

現今，有很多人 對都市化的現象很灰心。

They think cities are wrecking the planet.

他們認為這些城市正在破壞地球。

But right now,

但如今，

there are more than 200 intercity learning networks thriving.

已經有超過 200 個 城際學習網路在蓬勃發展。

That is as many as the number of intergovernmental organizations

這個數字

與我們的政府組織一樣多。

that we have.

And all of these intercity networks are devoted to one purpose,

所有的這些網際城市的互動 都致力於一個目標，

mankind's number one priority in the 21st century:

人類 21 世紀的首重之重：

sustainable urbanization.

永續的城市發展。

Is it working?

有成效了嗎？

Let's take climate change.

我們看一下氣候變化。

We know that summit after summit in New York and Paris

我們知道，紐約與巴黎 一次又一次的氣候大會

is not going to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

也無法降低溫室效應氣體的排放。

But what we can see is that transferring technology

但我們可以看到， 城市間的運輸科技與知識

and knowledge and policies between cities

還有政策，已經讓我們開始了解

is how we've actually begun to reduce the carbon intensity of our economies.

如何降低對碳排放的濃度。

Cities are learning from each other.

城市間彼此學習。

How to install zero-emissions buildings,

如何設計零排放的建築，

how to deploy electric car-sharing systems.

如何配置電動車共乘系統。

In major Chinese cities,

在中國的主要城市中，

they're imposing quotas on the number of cars on the streets.

他們已經開始限制路上汽車的配額。

In many Western cities,

在很多西方的城市，

young people don't even want to drive anymore.

年輕人甚至已經不想開車了。

Cities have been part of the problem,

城市曾經是問題製造者，

now they are part of the solution.

現在它們是提供解決方法的一份子。

Inequality is the other great challenge to achieving sustainable urbanization.

要達成永續城市發展， 不平等也是要面對的挑戰之一。

When I travel through megacities from end to end --

當我在這些大型都會區旅行時──

it takes hours and days --

花了幾個小時或幾天──

I experience the tragedy of extreme disparity

我體驗到同一地區

within the same geography.

也有極不公平的事。

And yet, our global stock of financial assets

即使我們全球股市的資產

has never been larger,

已經高達將近 300 兆美金。

approaching 300 trillion dollars.

That's almost four times the actual GDP of the world.

這大約是全球 GDP 的四倍。

We have taken on such enormous debts since the financial crisis,

我們從金融海嘯後 也創造了龐大的債務，

but have we invested them in inclusive growth?

但我們有在他們身上 投資包容性成長嗎？

No, not yet.

不，還沒有。

Only when we build sufficient, affordable public housing,

只有當我們蓋好夠多、 夠便宜的大眾住宅，

when we invest in robust transportation networks

投資大量的運輸網路

to allow people to connect to each other both physically and digitally,

讓人們可以進行實體與 數位上的溝通連結，

that's when our divided cities and societies

到那時候，所有的城市與社會，

will come to feel whole again.

才會感受到彼此的溫暖。

(Applause)

（掌聲）

And that is why infrastructure has just been included

這也是為什麼基礎設施的發展

in the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals,

會成為聯合國永續發展的目標之一，

because it enables all the others.

因為這讓所有人都受益。

Our political and economic leaders

我們的政治和財經領導人

are learning that connectivity is not charity,

已經瞭解到，連結性並不是做慈善，

it's opportunity.

它是機會。

And that's why our financial community needs to understand

這也是為什麼我們的財政界需要了解

that connectivity is the most important asset class of the 21st century.

連結是 21 世紀最重要的學習課程。

Now, cities can make the world more sustainable,

現在，城市可以讓世界 更具有永續發展性，

they can make the world more equitable,

它們讓世界更公平，

I also believe that connectivity between cities

我也相信城市間的連結

can make the world more peaceful.

可以讓世界更和平。

If we look at regions of the world with dense relations across borders,

如果我們專注世界各區 跨國間緊密關係的發展，

we see more trade, more investment

我們會看到更多的貿易、更多的投資

and more stability.

與更多的穩定性。

We all know the story of Europe after World War II,

我們都知道第二次世界大戰之後，

where industrial integration kicked off a process

歐洲工業蓬勃發展的故事，

that gave rise to today's peaceful European Union.

帶來了歐盟今日和平的發展。

And you can see that Russia, by the way,

還有，你可以看到俄羅斯，

is the least connected of major powers in the international system.

是最後一個與國際系統 接軌的重要強國。

And that goes a long way towards explaining the tensions today.

要解釋今日全球的緊張局勢 會花很多的時間。

Countries that have less stake in the system

在系統中的國家，

also have less to lose in disturbing it.

彼此的憎恨已經逐漸減少，

In North America, the lines that matter most on the map

在北美，地圖上最重要的一條線，

are not the US-Canada border or the US-Mexico border,

不是美國與加拿大的國界 或美國與墨西哥的國界，

but the dense network of roads and railways and pipelines

而是集結在北美聯盟之間 綿密的公路、鐵路、油管網路

and electricity grids and even water canals

that are forming an integrated North American union.

以及電網路甚至是水渠道。

North America does not need more walls, it needs more connections.

北美不需要更多的圍牆， 我們需要更多的連結。

(Applause)

（掌聲）

But the real promise of connectivity is in the postcolonial world.

但真正對連結性發展最有潛力的地方 是在後殖民世界的國家。

All of those regions where borders have historically been the most arbitrary

這些區域的國家， 他們的國界變化無常，

and where generations of leaders

世世代代的領導人，

have had hostile relations with each other.

彼此之間的仇恨都相當深。

But now a new group of leaders has come into power

但現在新一代的統治者

and is burying the hatchet.

已經開始放下仇恨彼此合作。

Let's take Southeast Asia, where high-speed rail networks

我們拿東南亞為例，

從曼谷到新加坡的高速鐵路網

are planned to connect Bangkok to Singapore

and trade corridors from Vietnam to Myanmar.

以及越南到緬甸的貿易走廊。

Now this region of 600 million people coordinates its agricultural resources

這個區域的六億人口， 齊心協調彼此的農業資源

and its industrial output.

及彼此的產業輸出。

It is evolving into what I call a Pax Asiana,

它正進化到一種

我稱之為「亞洲和平共榮」的現象，

a peace among Southeast Asian nations.

一個在東南亞國家之間的和平現象。

A similar phenomenon is underway in East Africa,

在東非，相同的情況也正在發生，

where a half dozen countries

將近有半打的國家，

are investing in railways and multimodal corridors

正在投資鐵路與多功能經濟走廊

so that landlocked countries can get their goods to market.

讓內陸國家也可以將 他們的產品推到市場上。

Now these countries coordinate their utilities

這些國家彼此協調

他們的設施及投資政策。

and their investment policies.

They, too, are evolving into a Pax Africana.

他們也進化到一種 「非洲式的和平共榮現象」。

One region we know could especially use this kind of thinking

我們知道一個區域 特別可以運用這種想法，

is the Middle East.

就是中東區域。

As Arab states tragically collapse,

當阿拉伯國家慘遭瓦解後，

what is left behind but the ancient cities,

除了古老的城市，還留下了甚麼？

such as Cairo, Beirut and Baghdad?

像是開羅、貝魯特和巴格達？

In fact, the nearly 400 million people of the Arab world

事實上在阿拉伯國度， 有將近四億人口

are almost entirely urbanized.

都已經都市化了。

As societies, as cities,

社會、城市之間，

they are either water rich or water poor,

不是水源豐富就是缺水，

energy rich or energy poor.

不是能源豐富就是缺少能源。

And the only way to correct these mismatches

而唯一可以導正這些 分配不當的方法，

is not through more wars and more borders,

並不是透過更多的戰爭 和領土的侵略，

but through more connectivity of pipelines and water canals.

而是透過對油管與水道的連結性。

Sadly, this is not yet the map of the Middle East.

可惜的是，這目前還不是中東的地圖。

But it should be,

但，它必須是，

a connected Pax Arabia,

一個「阿拉伯國度的和平共榮現象」，

internally integrated

透過內部整合與產品連結，

and productively connected to its neighbors: Europe, Asia and Africa.

與他們的鄰居： 歐洲、亞洲、非洲產生連結。

Now, it may not seem like connectivity is what we want right now

現在，對世界上最動盪的地區而言，

towards the world's most turbulent region.

目前的連結性看起來 並不是我們所期待的樣子，

But we know from history that more connectivity is the only way

但我們從歷史上學到，

更多的連結才是追求 長期穩定的唯一方法。

to bring about stability in the long run.

Because we know that in region after region,

因為我們知道， 一區又一區的實例顯示，

connectivity is the new reality.

連結性才是新的實境。

Cities and countries are learning to aggregate

城市與國家正在學習匯集

into more peaceful and prosperous wholes.

更多的和平與繁榮。

But the real test is going to be Asia.

但真正的考驗是在亞洲。

Can connectivity overcome the patterns of rivalry

連結性是否可以克服長久以來

在遠東區域強大勢力 之間的競爭模式呢?

among the great powers of the Far East?

After all, this is where World War III is supposed to break out.

並竟，這區是第三次世界大戰 最有可能爆發的地方。

Since the end of the Cold War, a quarter century ago,

自從 25 年前，冷戰結束後，

at least six major wars have been predicted for this region.

至少有 6 個主要的戰事 曾經被預測會在這一個區域爆發。

But none have broken out.

但沒有一個爆發。

Take China and Taiwan.

拿中國和台灣為例。

In the 1990s, this was everyone's leading World War III scenario.

在 1990 年代，這裡是每個人 預測第三次世界大戰的開幕式。

But since that time,

但從那之後，

the trade and investment volumes across the straits have become so intense

兩岸之間的貿易與投資 往來相當密切，

that last November,

這讓去年 11 月，

leaders from both sides held a historic summit

雙邊的領導， 舉辦了一次歷史性的會面，

to discuss eventual peaceful reunification.

討論最終和平統一的議題。

And even the election of a nationalist party in Taiwan

即使台灣今年稍早選出了 一個民族主義政黨執政，

that's pro-independence earlier this year

這個政黨支持獨立，

does not undermine this fundamental dynamic.

也不能低估這和平統一的基本路線。

China and Japan have an even longer history of rivalry

即使中國與日本對立的歷史更長，

and have been deploying their air forces and navies

甚至在島的爭議上， 展現彼此的國防實力。

to show their strength in island disputes.

But in recent years,

但近幾年，

Japan has been making its largest foreign investments in China.

日本已經在中國做了最大的投資。

Japanese cars are selling in record numbers there.

日本的汽車銷售 甚至在中國創下紀錄。

And guess where the largest number of foreigners

猜猜看現在住在日本的外國人，

residing in Japan today comes from?

最多的是來自哪一個國家？

You guessed it: China.

你猜對了：中國。

China and India have fought a major war

中國與印度也有戰爭，

and have three outstanding border disputes,

有三個未解決的國界爭議，

but today India is the second largest shareholder

但今日，印度是

亞投行的第二大股東。

in the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.

They're building a trade corridor stretching from Northeast India

他們建立了一條貿易走廊， 從印度的東北方

through Myanmar and Bangladesh to Southern China.

經過緬甸和孟加拉 一路延伸到中國的南邊。

Their trade volume has grown from 20 billion dollars a decade ago

他們的貿易金額 從十幾年前的 200 億美金

to 80 billion dollars today.

增長到今日的 800 億美金。

Nuclear-armed India and Pakistan have fought three wars

擁有核武的印度和巴基斯坦 已經打了三場戰爭，

and continue to dispute Kashmir,

雙方對喀什米爾領土的 爭議從不間斷，

but they're also negotiating a most-favored-nation trade agreement

但他們也協調出了 一種雙贏的貿易協議，

and want to complete a pipeline

雙方想要完成一條管線，

stretching from Iran through Pakistan to India.

從伊朗經過巴基斯坦到印度。

And let's talk about Iran.

讓我們談談伊朗。

Wasn't it just two years ago that war with Iran seemed inevitable?

兩年前伊朗的戰爭 不是不可避免的嗎？

Then why is every single major power rushing to do business there today?

那麼，為什麼今日，每一個強權國家 都要跑到那邊做生意？

Ladies and gentlemen,

各位先生女士，

I cannot guarantee that World War III will not break out.

我不敢保證第三次世界大戰不會爆發。

But we can definitely see why it hasn't happened yet.

但我們絕對可以了解 為什麼還沒發生。

Even though Asia is home to the world's fastest growing militaries,

即使大家都知道，亞洲是全世界 國防經費增長最快的區域，

these same countries are also investing billions of dollars

但這些國家彼此也投入 好幾十億美金

in each other's infrastructure and supply chains.

在彼此的基礎建設及供應鏈上。

They are more interested in each other's functional geography

他們對彼此的「地理位置功能」

than in their political geography.

比「政治地理版圖」更感興趣。

And that is why their leaders think twice, step back from the brink,

這也是為什麼他們的 領導人要退一步仔細思考，

and decide to focus on economic ties over territorial tensions.

並決定把重心擺在經濟發展 而非緊張的領土關係上。

So often it seems like the world is falling apart,

雖然看起來世界好像正在分崩離析，

but building more connectivity

但也建立了很多連結性，

is how we put Humpty Dumpty back together again,

讓大家比以前更知道

要如何重修舊好搞經濟。

much better than before.

And by wrapping the world

而藉由網路力量，

in such seamless physical and digital connectivity,

我們把世界連結在一起，

we evolve towards a world

這讓我們進化到一種

in which people can rise above their geographic constraints.

突破地理限制的數位世界。

We are the cells and vessels

我們就像細胞和血管，

pulsing through these global connectivity networks.

熱血沸騰地通過這些 全球的連結網路。

Everyday, hundreds of millions of people go online

每天，有好幾億人在網路上，

and work with people they've never met.

與他們從未謀面的人一起工作。

More than one billion people cross borders every year,

每年有超過 10 億人次 在世界各地旅行工作，

and that's expected to rise to three billion in the coming decade.

在未來的 10 年， 這個數字即將突破 30 億。

We don't just build connectivity,

我們不只是建立了連結性，

we embody it.

我們更把它體現出來。

We are the global network civilization,

我們都是全球網路文明的一員，

and this is our map.

而這就是我們的地圖。

A map of the world in which geography is no longer destiny.

世界地圖不再由地緣性決定命運。

Instead, the future has a new and more hopeful motto:

而是一個更有希望的未來新口號：

connectivity is destiny.

連結才是我們的命運。

Thank you.

謝謝各位。

(Applause)

（掌聲）