3 ways to plan for the (very) long term | Ari Wallach

翻译人员: Gillian Yao 校对人员: Wei Wu

So I've been "futuring," which is a term I made up --

我一直在“未来”着， 好吧，这词是我编的。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

about three seconds ago.

3秒钟前刚编的。

I've been futuring for about 20 years,

我畅想未来已经有20年了，

and when I first started, I would sit down with people,

最开始的时候，我会坐在别人身旁，

and say, "Hey, let's talk 10, 20 years out."

说，“嗨，我们来聊聊 10年、20年后吧。”

And they'd say, "Great."

他们说，“好呀。”

And I've been seeing that time horizon

后来我们聊的时间跨度

get shorter and shorter

越来越短，

and shorter,

越来越短，

so much so that I met with a CEO two months ago

就这样，2个月前我遇到一位CEO，

and I said -- we started our initial conversation.

我还是说了之前的那套开场白。

He goes, "I love what you do. I want to talk about the next six months."

他说，“我喜欢你做的事情。 但我就想聊聊未来6个月的事情。”

(Laughter)

（笑声）

We have a lot of problems that we are facing.

我们常常面临着许多

These are civilizational-scale problems.

位于人类文明的尺度上的问题。

The issue though is,

关键在于，

we can't solve them

我们无法解决它们，

using the mental models that we use right now

仅仅依靠我们现有的思维方式

to try and solve these problems.

是无法解决的。

Yes, a lot of great technical work is being done,

没错，许多技术性的 工作正在进行中，

but there is a problem that we need to solve for a priori, before,

但如果我们真的想前进，

if we want to really move the needle on those big problems.

最先需要解决的问题是

"Short-termism."

“短视主义”。

Right? There's no marches. There's no bracelets.

对吧？你不能游行， 也没有（标志性的）手环。

There's no petitions that you can sign to be against short-termism.

不是说你签个请愿书， 就可以对抗短视主义。

I tried to put one up, and no one signed.

我曾起草过一个，然而并没有人签。

It was weird.

挺奇怪的。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

But it prevents us from doing so much.

但它会阻碍我们做很多事。

Short-termism, for many reasons,

短视主义，出于种种原因，

has pervaded every nook and cranny of our reality.

遍布在我们周围的各个角落。

I just want you to take a second

我想请你们花几秒钟时间，

and just think about an issue that you're thinking, working on.

想想你正在思考的问题， 正在从事的事情。

It could be personal, it could be at work

可以是私人事物，可以是工作，

or it could be move-the-needle world stuff,

也可以是世界性的大事情，

and think about how far out you tend to think

思考一下，你可以把解决方案

about the solution set for that.

考虑到多长远。

Because short-termism prevents the CEO

CEO出于短视可能不愿意购买

from buying really expensive safety equipment.

非常昂贵的安全设备。

It'll hurt the bottom line.

大问题就来了，

So we get the Deepwater Horizon.

例如“深水地平线号”这样的事故。

Short-termism prevents teachers

老师们出于短视而不愿意

from spending quality one-on-one time with their students.

花时间在一对一教学上。

So right now in America,

因此目前在美国，

a high school student drops out every 26 seconds.

每26秒就有一个高中生退学。

Short-termism prevents Congress --

因为短视，国会——

sorry if there's anyone in here from Congress --

如果有谁是在国会工作的， 我先说句抱歉——

(Laughter)

（笑声）

or not really that sorry --

其实我也没那么抱歉——

(Laughter)

（笑声）

from putting money into a real infrastructure bill.

没有通过一个基础设施议案，

So what we get is the I-35W bridge collapse

从而导致数年前密西西比河上

over the Mississippi a few years ago,

I-35W桥梁的坍塌，

13 killed.

造成了13人死亡。

It wasn't always like this. We did the Panama Canal.

但也有例外情况。 我们建造了巴拿马运河。

We pretty much have eradicated global polio.

我们基本在世界范围内 消灭了小儿麻痹症。

We did the transcontinental railroad, the Marshall Plan.

我们修建了横贯大陆的铁路， 实施了马歇尔计划。

And it's not just big, physical infrastructure problems and issues.

然而这样的计划并不限于大型的 实体基础设施问题。

Women's suffrage, the right to vote.

还有女性的选举权、投票权等。

But in our short-termist time,

但在我们短视的时代，

where everything seems to happen right now

一切事情都感觉发生在当下，

and we can only think out past the next tweet or timeline post,

我们想到的只有下一条推特 或者时间线上的帖子，

we get hyper-reactionary.

我们的反应过于迅速。

So what do we do?

我们都做了什么？

We take people who are fleeing their war-torn country,

对于躲避战乱的人，

and we go after them.

我们追捕他们。

We take low-level drug offenders, and we put them away for life.

我们抓捕小毒贩，把他们终身监禁。

And then we build McMansions without even thinking

我们不假思索地盖起独栋别墅，

about how people are going to get between them and their job.

却没有考虑人们将如何 从那里出发去上班。

It's a quick buck.

都想赚点快钱。

Now, the reality is, for a lot of these problems,

如今的现实是，对于许多类似的问题

there are some technical fixes,

都有技术层面的解决方案，

a lot of them.

真的很多。

I call these technical fixes sandbag strategies.

而我将它们称为“沙袋策略”。

So you know there's a storm coming,

想象一下，风雨将至，

the levee is broken, no one's put any money into it,

由于没有经费进行维护， 防洪堤即将崩溃，

you surround your home with sandbags.

你只能用沙袋把家围起来

And guess what? It works.

你猜怎么着？它们还挺管用。

Storm goes away, the water level goes down,

等到暴风雨过去，水位下降，

you get rid of the sandbags,

你再把沙袋挪走，

and you do this storm after storm after storm.

每当暴风雨来临你都这么干。

And here's the insidious thing.

而危及也正潜藏于此。

A sandbag strategy

沙袋策略

can get you reelected.

能让你继续当选。

A sandbag strategy

沙袋策略

can help you make your quarterly numbers.

可以让你的季度报表很漂亮。

Now, if we want to move forward

接下来，如果我们想要迈入

into a different future than the one we have right now,

一个更美好的未来，

because I don't think we've hit --

毕竟我并不觉得我们达到了——

2016 is not peak civilization.

2016年远不是人类文明的顶峰。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

There's some more we can do.

我们还有很多事情可以做。

But my argument is that unless we shift our mental models and our mental maps

但我的观点是，只有当我们摆脱 在我们思维模型和

on how we think about the short,

思维地图上的短视时，

it's not going to happen.

我们才可能见证美好的来临。

So what I've developed is something called "longpath,"

因此我创立了名为“长路径”的理论，

and it's a practice.

这也是一种实践。

And longpath isn't a kind of one-and-done exercise.

注意 “长路径”并不是一个 一劳永逸的做法。

I'm sure everyone here at some point has done an off-site

我相信在座的各位都曾经

with a lot of Post-It notes and whiteboards,

用即时贴和白板做过许多计划，

and you do --

你们制定出——

no offense to the consultants in here who do that --

并不是针对你们中间做 咨询服务的啊——

and you do a long-term plan,

你们也制定出长期计划，

and then two weeks later, everyone forgets about it.

然后两周之后就把它 抛到九霄云外。

Right? Or a week later. If you're lucky, three months.

是吧？或者干脆一周就忘， 幸运的话持续三个月。

It's a practice because it's not necessarily a thing that you do.

这些小事情，并不是非做不可，

It's a process where you have to revisit different ways of thinking

但同时这也是一个你针对 每一个重大决定

for every major decision that you're working on.

不断重温不同的思维方式的过程。

So I want to go through those three ways of thinking.

我想总结以下3种思考方式。

So the first: transgenerational thinking.

第一种是：跨代际的思考。

I love the philosophers:

我热爱哲学家们：

Plato, Socrates, Habermas, Heidegger.

柏拉图，苏格拉底， 哈贝马斯，海德格尔。

I was raised on them.

我从小就很喜欢他们。

But they all did one thing

但他们都做了一件

that didn't actually seem like a big deal

在我真正开始思考它之前

until I really started kind of looking into this.

看起来很不起眼的事。

And they all took,

他们都在寻找

as a unit of measure for their entire reality

某种评价准则，

of what it meant to be virtuous and good,

来判断什么叫品德高尚，

the single lifespan,

究其一生，

from birth to death.

直至死亡。

But here's a problem with these issues:

然而这些看似合乎情理的话题

they stack up on top of us,

存在一个问题，

because the only way we know how to do something good in the world

那就是，我们只有在 有生之年做出好事，

is if we do it between our birth and our death.

才能悟到如何做一件好事。

我们生来便被如此设定。

That's what we're programmed to do.

当你来到任何一家自助书店，

If you go to the self-help section in any bookstore,

it's all about you.

一切可以自己决定。

Which is great,

这非常好，

unless you're dealing with some of these major issues.

除非你需要解决这样的大问题。

And so with transgenerational thinking,

拥有了跨代际的思维方式，

which is really kind of transgenerational ethics,

或者说实际上是跨代际的 伦理与准则，

you're able to expand how you think about these problems,

你将能够扩展你对这些问题的看法，

what is your role in helping to solve them.

明确你在解决它们的 过程中扮演的角色。

Now, this isn't something that just has to be done at the Security Council chamber.

这并不是只能在联合国安理会的 会议厅里解决的事情。

It's something that you can do in a very kind of personal way.

你完全可以用个人的方式处理它。

So every once in a while, if I'm lucky, my wife and I like to go out to dinner,

幸运的话，每隔一段时间 我都会和妻子出去吃一顿饭，

and we have three children under the age of seven.

我们有三个不到七岁的孩子。

So you can imagine it's a very peaceful, quiet meal.

所以你能想得到那将是一顿 非常和平，安静的晚饭。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

So we sit down and literally all I want to do is just eat and chill,

我们坐下来准备点餐， 我一心只想着能安静地吃东西，

and my kids have a completely and totally different idea

然而对于我们的计划，

孩子们却有着完全不同的想法。

of what we're going to be doing.

And so my first idea

因此，我想到的第一个办法就是

is my sandbag strategy, right?

“沙袋策略”，对吧？

It's to go into my pocket and take out the iPhone

其实就是从口袋里掏出iphone，

and give them "Frozen"

让他们看《冰雪奇缘》，

or some other bestselling game thing.

或是给他们玩畅销游戏。

And then I stop

然后我打住了，

and I have to kind of put on this transgenerational thinking cap.

接下来不得不在某种程度上 进入跨代际的思考状态。

I don't do this in the restaurant, because it would be bizarre,

我知道在餐馆里这样做很诡异，

but I have to --

然而我身不由己——

I did it once, and that's how I learned it was bizarre.

我试了一次，对，我就是这样 发现了它有多么诡异的。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

And you have to kind of think, "OK, I can do this."

然后你得告诉自己，“我能做到”。

But what is this teaching them?

可是这能教会他们什么呢？

So what does it mean if I actually bring some paper

所以如果我真的带上纸笔，

or engage with them in conversation?

或是与他们交谈，会发生什么呢？

It's hard. It's not easy, and I'm making this very personal.

这很困难，况且我在把它 搞得个人化。

It's actually more traumatic

比起我在从事的

than some of the big issues that I work on in the world --

世界上的大问题， 让孩子们在晚餐时娱乐

可能带来更大的负面后果。

entertaining my kids at dinner.

But what it does is it connects them here in the present with me,

但它的功用是，在此时此刻 将我和孩子们连结为一体，

but it also --

而且——

and this is the crux of transgenerational thinking ethics --

这正是代际伦理思想的关键——

it sets them up to how they're going to interact with their kids

帮助他们认识到如何与孩子互动，

and their kids and their kids.

子子孙孙，始终如此。

Second, futures thinking.

第二：面向未来思考。

When we think about the future,

当我们以10年，15年的尺度，

10, 15 years out,

去思考未来时，

give me a vision of what the future is.

我们将得到一个未来的愿景。

You don't have to give it to me, but think in your head.

不必说出来，但你可以想一想。

And what you're probably going to see

你将有可能

is the dominant cultural lens

透过它们观察世界，

that dominates our thinking about the future right now:

并任之引领我们的想象的是：

technology.

科学技术。

So when we think about the problems,

当我们考虑问题时，

we always put it through a technological lens,

我们总是从科技的角度出发，

a tech-centric, a techno-utopia, and there's nothing wrong with that,

以科技为核心，实现科技乌托邦， 这些并没有什么问题，

but it's something that we have to really think deeply about

但如果我们要确实地解决这些大问题，

if we're going to move on these major issues,

就需要三思而行，

because it wasn't always like this. Right?

毕竟没有万全之策，对吧？

The ancients had their way of thinking

古人自有他们自己

about what the future was.

思考未来的方式。

The Church definitely had their idea of what the future could be,

教会一定也有它们对于未来的看法，

and you could actually pay your way into that future. Right?

实际上你完全可以自己构想一下 未来的样子，对么？

And luckily for humanity,

对于人类而言，幸运的是，

we got the scientific revolution.

我们迎来了科学革命。

From there, we got the technology,

由此我们获得了科学技术，

but what has happened --

但发生的事情是——

And by the way, this is not a critique.

顺便澄清一下， 我无意批判。

I love technology.

我爱科技。

Everything in my house talks back to me,

我家的所有东西，从孩子到扬声器，

from my children to my speakers to everything.

都可以跟我对话。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

But we've abdicated the future from the high priests in Rome

然而我们只是把未来的掌控权

to the high priests of Silicon Valley.

从罗马教皇转移到了“硅谷教皇”。

So when we think, well, how are we going to deal with climate

因此，当我们思考如何应对气候变化

or with poverty or homelessness,

或是贫困和无家可归问题，

our first reaction is to think about it through a technology lens.

我们的第一反应是以科技为武器。

And look, I'm not advocating that we go to this guy.

请注意，我并不是 在鼓动大家去投靠他。

I love Joel, don't get me wrong,

我爱Joel，但别误会，

but I'm not saying we go to Joel.

这并不代表我们都要投靠Joel。

What I'm saying is we have to rethink

我的意思是，我们需要质疑

our base assumption about only looking at the future in one way,

以单一视角看未来的大前提，

only looking at it through the dominant lens.

和被主流看法所左右的现状。

Because our problems are so big and so vast

我们面临的问题很大， 覆盖范围非常广，

that we need to open ourselves up.

因而我们需要开放的视角。

So that's why I do everything in my power not to talk about the future.

这就是为什么， 我尽力不讨论单一的未来，

I talk about futures.

而是未来的无限可能。

It opens the conversation again.

这样可以再度放开我们的对话。

So when you're sitting and thinking

因此，你完全可以在家

about how do we move forward on this major issue --

在上班的时候，

it could be at home,

以至在国际舞台上，

it could be at work,

安静专注地

it could be again on the global stage --

思考我们该如何解决这个问题，

don't cut yourself off from thinking about something beyond technology as a fix

发散你的思维， 尝试科技以外的事物吧，

because we're more concerned about technological evolution right now

因为相较于道德的发展，

than we are about moral evolution.

我们当今更容易关注的 是科技的发展。

And unless we fix for that,

当我们局限在科技视角时，

we're not going to be able to get out of short-termism

我们将无法摆脱短视的把控

and get to where we want to be.

以到达我们期待的目的地。

The final, telos thinking. This comes from the Greek root.

第三种，则是目的论思维， 它起源于希腊。

Ultimate aim and ultimate purpose.

旨在寻求终极的目的。

And it's really asking one question:

它实际上就在不断提出问题：

to what end?

最后怎么样？

When was the last time you asked yourself: To what end?

最近一次你问自己“最后怎么样” 是什么时候了？

And when you asked yourself that, how far out did you go?

你又在何时问过自己 你已经走了多远？

Because long isn't long enough anymore.

因为曾经的漫长，如今已不再漫长。

Three, five years doesn't cut it.

区区三五年已经远远不够了，

It's 30, 40, 50, 100 years.

而是要放眼30，40，50，甚至100年。

In Homer's epic, "The Odyssey,"

在荷马史诗《奥德赛》中，

Odysseus had the answer to his "what end."

奥德修斯对于“最后怎么样” 有自己的答案，

It was Ithaca.

是来到伊萨卡岛，

It was this bold vision of what he wanted --

来到美丽的帕尼罗珀身边

to return to Penelope.

这样大胆的设想。

And I can tell you, because of the work that I'm doing,

然而经由我的工作经历，

but also you know it intuitively -- we have lost our Ithaca.

实际上你也可以直观地感受到 我们的”伊萨卡岛“已经沦陷。

We have lost our "to what end," so we stay on this hamster wheel.

我们不再追问“最后怎么样”，因而 就好像被困在在的仓鼠轮上。

And yes, we're trying to solve these problems,

确实，我们正在尝试解决这些问题，

but what comes after we solve the problem?

但是当它们被解决后， 又会发生什么呢？

And unless you define what comes after, people aren't going to move.

如果你不为下一步作出定义， 人们是不会行动的。

The businesses -- this isn't just about business --

就商业活动而言—— （而又不限于商业）

but the businesses that do consistently, who break out of short-termism

那些能够避免短视 而长久维系的企业

not surprisingly are family-run businesses.

毫不意外的都是家族企业。

They're transgenerational. They're telos. They think about the futures.

它们有跨时代的理念， 追根究底，并思考未来。

And this is an ad for Patek Philippe. They're 175 years old,

这是瑞士百达翡丽手表的广告， 它已经有175年历史了，

and what's amazing is that they literally embody

但最令人惊异的是， 他们实际上在品牌中

this kind of longpathian sense in their brand,

熔铸了这种“长路径’的意识，

because, by the way, you never actually own a Patek Philippe,

因为，你实际上并不会真正地 拥有一块百达翡丽表，

and I definitely won't --

而我更是肯定不会有——

(Laughter)

（笑声）

unless somebody wants to just throw 25,000 dollars on the stage.

除非有人就想砸25000美金给我。

You merely look after it for the next generation.

在下一代当中没准你能找到。

So it's important that we remember,

所以大家要记住的是，

the future, we treat it like a noun.

我们总认为“未来”是一个名词。

It's not. It's a verb.

然而并非如此，它是一个动词。

It requires action.

它需要我们付出行动，

It requires us to push into it.

需要我们的推动力。

It's not this thing that washes over us.

它并不会如海浪般冲刷我们。

It's something that we actually have total control over.

相反，它是可以被我们完全掌控的。

But in a short-term society, we end up feeling like we don't.

但是身处一个短视的社会，我们开始 怀疑自己把握未来的能力。

我们感到自己受到缚束。

We feel like we're trapped.

We can push through that.

实际上，我们可以实现超越。

Now I'm getting more comfortable

现在我已经能够逐渐接受

in the fact that at some point

在未来的某个时候

in the inevitable future,

不可避免地，

I will die.

我会死掉。

But because of these new ways of thinking and doing,

但正是由于这些思考 和行动的新方法，

both in the outside world and also with my family at home,

无论是在家里还是外面的世界，

and what I'm leaving my kids, I get more comfortable in that fact.

以及传授给孩子们的时候， 我实际上能收获更多的愉悦。

And it's something that a lot of us are really uncomfortable with,

它是我们许多人并不喜欢的，

but I'm telling you,

但我还是想劝告各位，

think it through.

再来考虑一下。

Apply this type of thinking and you can push yourself past

应用这种思维方式，并从中 使自己获得超越的过程，

what's inevitably very, very uncomfortable.

存在着不可避免的不适感。

And it all begins really with yourself asking this question:

但你可以从质问自己 “长期目标是什么”

What is your longpath?

来迈出第一步。

But I ask you, when you ask yourself that

我希望你做到的是。

now or tonight or behind a steering wheel

无论是在此刻或是今晚。 或者是在你开车的时候。

or in the boardroom or the situation room:

在会议室，还是在指挥室：

push past the longpath,

用前面所述的“长路径”思维，

quick, oh, what's my longpath the next three years or five years?

确定你在接下来三到五年的规划。

Try and push past your own life if you can

尝试去超越自己过往的生活，

because it makes you do things a little bit bigger

因为这样将会帮助你

than you thought were possible.

做出以前力所不能及的事情。

Yes, we have huge, huge problems out there.

是的，我们需要面对 大得可怕的问题。

With this process, with this thinking,

但经历了这样的思维过程，

I think we can make a difference.

我认为我们能够做出改变。

I think you can make a difference,

我相信你也可以，

and I believe in you guys.

我相信你们。

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause)

(掌声)