3 ways to plan for the (very) long term | Ari Wallach

Prevoditelj: Igor Pureta Recezent: Sanda L

So I've been "futuring," which is a term I made up --

I tako, ja sam "budućirao", što je izraz koji sam izmislio...

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

about three seconds ago.

prije otprilike 3 sekunde.

I've been futuring for about 20 years,

Budućiram već 20 godina.

and when I first started, I would sit down with people,

Kad sam prvi put počeo, sjeo bih s ljudima

and say, "Hey, let's talk 10, 20 years out."

i rekao: "Hej, idemo pričati što će biti za 10, 20 godina."

And they'd say, "Great."

I oni bi rekli: "Super."

And I've been seeing that time horizon

Ja bih promatrao kako je to vremensko razdoblje

get shorter and shorter

sve kraće i kraće

and shorter,

i kraće,

so much so that I met with a CEO two months ago

toliko kratko da sam prije 2 mjeseca upoznao direktora

and I said -- we started our initial conversation.

s kojim sam započeo prvi razgovor.

He goes, "I love what you do. I want to talk about the next six months."

On je rekao: "Sviđa mi se to što radiš, želim pričati o idućih 6 mjeseci."

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

We have a lot of problems that we are facing.

Imamo mnogo problema s kojima se suočavamo.

These are civilizational-scale problems.

To su problemi cijele civilizacije.

The issue though is,

Međutim, problem je u tome što

we can't solve them

ih mi ne možemo riješiti

using the mental models that we use right now

pomoću mentalnih sklopova koje trenutačno koristimo

to try and solve these problems.

da probamo i riješimo te probleme.

Yes, a lot of great technical work is being done,

Napravljen je velik tehnološki napredak,

but there is a problem that we need to solve for a priori, before,

ali postoji problem koji trebamo najprije riješiti, a priori,

if we want to really move the needle on those big problems.

ako zaista želimo pomaknuti stvari oko tih velikih problema.

"Short-termism."

"Kratkoročnost."

Right? There's no marches. There's no bracelets.

Jasno? Nema protesta. Nema hapšenja.

There's no petitions that you can sign to be against short-termism.

Nema peticija koje možete potpisati za borbu protiv kratkoročnosti.

I tried to put one up, and no one signed.

Ja sam pokrenuo jednu, nitko nije potpisao.

It was weird.

Čudno!

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

But it prevents us from doing so much.

A to nas koči napraviti toliko puno toga.

Short-termism, for many reasons,

Kratkoročnost je, iz mnogih razloga,

has pervaded every nook and cranny of our reality.

prevladala svaki, i najmanji, dio naše stvarnosti.

I just want you to take a second

Želim da stanete na sekundu

and just think about an issue that you're thinking, working on.

i razmislite o problemu o kojem razmišljate, na kojem radite.

It could be personal, it could be at work

Može biti osoban ili povezan s poslom

or it could be move-the-needle world stuff,

ili može biti jedan od onih koji će promijeniti svijet.

and think about how far out you tend to think

Zamislite koliko daleko idete da biste osmislili

about the solution set for that.

rješenje za njega.

Because short-termism prevents the CEO

Jer kratkoročnost sprečava direktore

from buying really expensive safety equipment.

da kupe vrlo skupu sigurnosnu opremu

It'll hurt the bottom line.

jer će smanjiti profit.

So we get the Deepwater Horizon.

Tako nastaju problemi s platformom Deepwater Horizon.

Short-termism prevents teachers

Kratkoročnost sprečava učitelje

from spending quality one-on-one time with their students.

da provedu vrijeme radeći kvalitetno s pojedinim učenicima.

So right now in America,

Trenutačno u SAD-u

a high school student drops out every 26 seconds.

jedan srednjoškolski učenik odustaje svakih 26 sekundi.

Short-termism prevents Congress --

Kratkoročnost sprečava Kongres --

sorry if there's anyone in here from Congress --

žao mi je ako ovdje ima nekog iz Kongresa --

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

or not really that sorry --

i nije mi baš tako žao --

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

from putting money into a real infrastructure bill.

usmjeriti novac u zakon o infrastrukturi.

So what we get is the I-35W bridge collapse

Pa se sruši most I-35W

over the Mississippi a few years ago,

na Mississippiju prije nekoliko godina.

13 killed.

13 mrtvih.

It wasn't always like this. We did the Panama Canal.

Nije uvijek bilo tako. Sagradili smo Panamski kanal.

We pretty much have eradicated global polio.

Gotovo smo iskorijenili dječju paralizu u svijetu.

We did the transcontinental railroad, the Marshall Plan.

Sagradili smo transkontinentalnu željeznicu. Marshallov plan.

And it's not just big, physical infrastructure problems and issues.

I ne radi se samo o velikim, fizičkim, infrastrukturnim problemima i izazovima.

Women's suffrage, the right to vote.

Pravo glasa ženama.

But in our short-termist time,

No, u naše kratkoročno vrijeme,

where everything seems to happen right now

gdje se čini da se sve dešava upravo sad

and we can only think out past the next tweet or timeline post,

i možemo razmišljati samo tijekom nekoliko poruka ili objava,

we get hyper-reactionary.

postajemo hiper-nazadni.

So what do we do?

Što ćemo učiniti?

We take people who are fleeing their war-torn country,

Usmjerit ćemo se na izbjeglice iz ratom razorenih zemalja

and we go after them.

i istjerat ćemo ih.

We take low-level drug offenders, and we put them away for life.

Usmjerit ćemo se na sitne dilere droge i osuditi ih na doživotnu.

And then we build McMansions without even thinking

Sagradit ćemo velike i ružne kuće bez osmišljavanja

about how people are going to get between them and their job.

kako će ljudi stići od njih do posla.

It's a quick buck.

To je lagano zarađen novac.

Now, the reality is, for a lot of these problems,

Stvarnost je, da za mnoge od tih problema,

there are some technical fixes,

postoje neka tehnološka rješenja.

a lot of them.

Mnogo njih.

I call these technical fixes sandbag strategies.

Takva rješenja nazivam strategijom vreće pijeska.

So you know there's a storm coming,

Znate da dolazi oluja,

the levee is broken, no one's put any money into it,

nasip je probijen, nitko nije ulagao u održavanje,

you surround your home with sandbags.

a vi okružite kuću vrećama pijeska.

And guess what? It works.

I znate što? To funkcionira!

Storm goes away, the water level goes down,

Oluja prođe, razina vode se spusti,

you get rid of the sandbags,

vi se riješite vreća pijeska

and you do this storm after storm after storm.

i to radite ponovno za svake oluje.

And here's the insidious thing.

Tu je i prava podmuklost.

A sandbag strategy

Pomoću strategije vreća pijeska

can get you reelected.

možete pobijediti na izborima.

A sandbag strategy

Strategija vreća pijeska

can help you make your quarterly numbers.

vam može pomoći postići kvartalne rezultate.

Now, if we want to move forward

Ako se želimo pomaknuti naprijed

into a different future than the one we have right now,

u budućnost drugačiju od one u kojoj smo sad,

because I don't think we've hit --

jer ne vjerujem da smo postigli sve što je trebalo --

2016 is not peak civilization.

2016. nije vrhunac civilizacije.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

There's some more we can do.

Mora biti nešto što možemo učiniti.

But my argument is that unless we shift our mental models and our mental maps

No, moj je argument da ako ne promijenimo naše mentalne modele i mentalne mape

on how we think about the short,

o tome kako razmišljamo o kratkom,

it's not going to happen.

to se neće dogoditi.

So what I've developed is something called "longpath,"

Ono što smo razvili je nešto što zovemo "dugoročnost",

and it's a practice.

to je vještina.

And longpath isn't a kind of one-and-done exercise.

Dugoročnost nije vrsta vježbe koju radite samo jednom.

I'm sure everyone here at some point has done an off-site

Siguran sam da ju je svatko od vas ovdje u nekom trenutku

with a lot of Post-It notes and whiteboards,

napravio uz puno Post-it bilježaka i bijelih ploča,

and you do --

tada ste napravili --

no offense to the consultants in here who do that --

bez uvrede savjetnicima ovdje koji to rade --

and you do a long-term plan,

dugoročan plan,

and then two weeks later, everyone forgets about it.

i dva tjedna kasnije svi zaborave na njega.

Right? Or a week later. If you're lucky, three months.

Istina? ili tjedan kasnije. Ako ste sretni, tri mjeseca.

It's a practice because it's not necessarily a thing that you do.

To je vještina jer to nije nužno nešto uobičajeno.

It's a process where you have to revisit different ways of thinking

To je proces u kojem trebate primijeniti različite načine razmišljanja

for every major decision that you're working on.

za svaku važnu odluku na kojoj radite.

So I want to go through those three ways of thinking.

Želim proći kroz ta tri načina razmišljanja.

So the first: transgenerational thinking.

Prvi je međugeneracijsko razmišljanje.

I love the philosophers:

Volim filozofe:

Plato, Socrates, Habermas, Heidegger.

Platon, Sokrat, Habermas, Heidegger.

I was raised on them.

Odrastao sam s njima.

But they all did one thing

Oni su svi radili jednu stvar

that didn't actually seem like a big deal

koja se, zapravo, nije činila jako važnom

until I really started kind of looking into this.

dok se nisam zaista udubio u to.

And they all took,

Oni su kao jedinicu mjere

as a unit of measure for their entire reality

uzeli njihovu čitavu stvarnost

of what it meant to be virtuous and good,

o tome što je značilo biti pun vrlina i dobar,

the single lifespan,

tijekom cijelog života,

from birth to death.

od rođenja do smrti.

But here's a problem with these issues:

Postoji problem s tim stvarima:

they stack up on top of us,

vise nam nad glavom,

because the only way we know how to do something good in the world

jer je jedini način da znamo kako napraviti nešto dobro u svijetu,

is if we do it between our birth and our death.

ako to napravimo između rođenja i smrti.

That's what we're programmed to do.

Za to smo napravljeni.

Ako odete do knjiga za samopomoć u nekoj knjižari,

If you go to the self-help section in any bookstore,

it's all about you.

sve su one o vama.

Which is great,

To je dobro,

unless you're dealing with some of these major issues.

osim ako se ne borite s nekim od tih glavnih izazova.

And so with transgenerational thinking,

Dakle, transgeneracijsko mišljenje,

which is really kind of transgenerational ethics,

koje je zapravo vrsta transgeneracijske etike,

you're able to expand how you think about these problems,

vam omogućava da proširite način razmišljanja o tim stvarima,

what is your role in helping to solve them.

koja je vaša uloga u njihovom rješavanju.

Now, this isn't something that just has to be done at the Security Council chamber.

To nije nešto što se mora napraviti isključivo u dvoranih Vijeća sigurnosti UN-a.

It's something that you can do in a very kind of personal way.

To je nešto što možete učiniti na poseban i osoban način.

So every once in a while, if I'm lucky, my wife and I like to go out to dinner,

Svako toliko, ako imam sreće, moja supruga i ja iziđemo van na večeru.

and we have three children under the age of seven.

Imamo troje djece mlađe od sedam godina.

So you can imagine it's a very peaceful, quiet meal.

Zamislite, to je vrlo mirna i tiha večera.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

So we sit down and literally all I want to do is just eat and chill,

Sjedili smo i jedino što sam želio je jesti i uživati.

and my kids have a completely and totally different idea

Moja djeca su imala potpuno drugačiju ideju

o tome što ćemo raditi.

of what we're going to be doing.

And so my first idea

Moja prva ideja je

is my sandbag strategy, right?

strategija vreće pijeska, zar ne?

It's to go into my pocket and take out the iPhone

Posegnuti u džep, izvući iPhone

and give them "Frozen"

i pustiti im "Frozen"

or some other bestselling game thing.

ili neku drugu popularnu igru.

And then I stop

Zastao sam

and I have to kind of put on this transgenerational thinking cap.

i stavio na glavu kapu za međugeneracijsko razmišljanje.

I don't do this in the restaurant, because it would be bizarre,

Ne radim to u restoranima jer bi to izgledalo bizarno

but I have to --

ali moram --

I did it once, and that's how I learned it was bizarre.

napravio sam to jednom i tako naučio da je to bizarno.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

And you have to kind of think, "OK, I can do this."

I morate misliti: "Dobro, mogu ja to."

But what is this teaching them?

Ali što ih učim time?

So what does it mean if I actually bring some paper

Što znači ako izvučem neki tekst

or engage with them in conversation?

ili ih zabavim razgovorom?

It's hard. It's not easy, and I'm making this very personal.

Teško je. Nije lako i ja to radim vrlo osobno.

It's actually more traumatic

Zapravo je traumatičnije

than some of the big issues that I work on in the world --

nego neki veliki izazovi u svijetu na kojima radim --

entertaining my kids at dinner.

zabavljati moju djecu tijekom večere.

But what it does is it connects them here in the present with me,

No, ono što postižem je povezivanje s njima u stvarnom vremenu

but it also --

i još --

and this is the crux of transgenerational thinking ethics --

a to je srž etike transgeneracijskog razmišljanja --

it sets them up to how they're going to interact with their kids

učim ih kako će se oni ponašati s njihovom djecom

and their kids and their kids.

i djecom njihove djece.

Second, futures thinking.

Drugo, razmišljanje o budućnosti.

When we think about the future,

Kad razmišljamo o budućnosti,

10, 15 years out,

10, 15 godina unaprijed,

give me a vision of what the future is.

dobivam viziju što je budućnost.

You don't have to give it to me, but think in your head.

Ne trebate mi je prepričati, samo zamišljajte u svojoj glavi.

And what you're probably going to see

Ono što ćete vjerojatno vidjeti

is the dominant cultural lens

je prevladavajuće kulturno gledište

that dominates our thinking about the future right now:

koje trenutačno prevladava našim razmišljanjem o budućnosti:

technology.

tehnologija.

So when we think about the problems,

Kad razmišljamo o problemima,

we always put it through a technological lens,

uvijek ih promatramo kroz tehnološko gledište

a tech-centric, a techno-utopia, and there's nothing wrong with that,

usmjereno na tehnologiju, tražeći spas u tehnologiji. I to je u redu,

but it's something that we have to really think deeply about

ali to je nešto o čemu se moramo duboko zamisliti

if we're going to move on these major issues,

ako želimo pomaknuti te glavne probleme s mrtve točke

because it wasn't always like this. Right?

jer nije uvijek bilo tako, zar ne?

The ancients had their way of thinking

Drevni ljudi su imali svoj način razmišljanja

about what the future was.

o tome što je budućnost.

The Church definitely had their idea of what the future could be,

Crkva je definitivno imala svoju ideju kakva bi budućnost mogla biti

and you could actually pay your way into that future. Right?

i zapravo biste mogli sami održati svoj put u tu budućnost. Zar ne?

And luckily for humanity,

Srećom po čovječanstvo,

we got the scientific revolution.

imamo znanstvenu revoluciju.

From there, we got the technology,

Iz nje je nastala tehnologija,

but what has happened --

a ono što se dogodilo --

And by the way, this is not a critique.

usput rečeno, to nije kritika.

I love technology.

Ja volim tehnologiju.

Everything in my house talks back to me,

Sve u mojoj kući razgovara sa mnom,

from my children to my speakers to everything.

od djece do zvučnika i svega ostalog.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

But we've abdicated the future from the high priests in Rome

Odbacili smo budućnost kakvu su zamislili visoki svećenici u Rimu

to the high priests of Silicon Valley.

i prihvatili onu visokih svećenika Silicijske doline.

So when we think, well, how are we going to deal with climate

Pa kad razmišljamo kako ćemo se nositi s klimatskim promjenama

or with poverty or homelessness,

ili siromaštvom ili beskućnicima,

our first reaction is to think about it through a technology lens.

naša prva reakcija je gledati problem kroz ono što nudi tehnologija.

And look, I'm not advocating that we go to this guy.

Ne kažem da bismo trebali otići do ovog čovjeka.

I love Joel, don't get me wrong,

Nemojte me krivo razumjeti, meni se Joel sviđa,

but I'm not saying we go to Joel.

ali ne kažem da bismo trebali otići k njemu.

What I'm saying is we have to rethink

Trebali bismo ponovno razmisliti

our base assumption about only looking at the future in one way,

našu osnovnu pretpostavku o tome da budućnost gledamo samo na jedan način,

only looking at it through the dominant lens.

i to onaj dominantan.

Because our problems are so big and so vast

Naši problemi su tako veliki i tako opsežni

that we need to open ourselves up.

da se moramo otvoriti drugačijim razmišljanjima.

So that's why I do everything in my power not to talk about the future.

Zato radim sve što je u mojoj moći da ne govorim o budućnosti.

I talk about futures.

Ja govorim o budućnostima.

It opens the conversation again.

To otvara mogućnosti u razgovoru.

So when you're sitting and thinking

Pa kad sjedite i razmišljate

about how do we move forward on this major issue --

kako krenuti naprijed u tom velikom problemu --

it could be at home,

može biti dom,

it could be at work,

može biti posao,

it could be again on the global stage --

može biti nešto na svjetskoj razini --

don't cut yourself off from thinking about something beyond technology as a fix

ne ograničavajte se od razmišljanja o nečemu što tehnologija ne može popraviti

because we're more concerned about technological evolution right now

jer mi smo trenutačno zabrinutiji za tehnološki razvitak

than we are about moral evolution.

nego za moralnu evoluciju.

And unless we fix for that,

I ako to ne promijenimo,

we're not going to be able to get out of short-termism

nećemo biti u mogućnosti iskočiti iz kratkoročnosti

and get to where we want to be.

i doći tamo gdje želimo biti.

The final, telos thinking. This comes from the Greek root.

Konačno, telos razmišljanje. Riječ grčkog porijekla.

Ultimate aim and ultimate purpose.

Krajnji cilj i krajnja svrha.

And it's really asking one question:

I postavlja zaista samo jedno pitanje:

to what end?

prema kakvom kraju?

When was the last time you asked yourself: To what end?

Kad ste se zadnji put upitali: "Kamo idem?"

And when you asked yourself that, how far out did you go?

I kad ste se to pitali, koliko daleko ste bili spremni ići?

Because long isn't long enough anymore.

Jer dugo više nije dovoljno dugo.

Three, five years doesn't cut it.

Tri do pet godina je prekratko.

It's 30, 40, 50, 100 years.

Govorimo o 30, 40, 50, 100 godina.

In Homer's epic, "The Odyssey,"

U Homerovom epu "Odiseja",

Odysseus had the answer to his "what end."

Odisej je morao odgovoriti na svoje "kamo idem?"

It was Ithaca.

Odgovor je Itaka.

It was this bold vision of what he wanted --

To je bila njegova vizija onog što je htio --

to return to Penelope.

vratiti se Penelopi.

And I can tell you, because of the work that I'm doing,

I mogu vam reći, jer se time bavim,

but also you know it intuitively -- we have lost our Ithaca.

a i vi to intuitivno znate -- mi smo izgubili našu Itaku.

We have lost our "to what end," so we stay on this hamster wheel.

Mi smo izgubili to "kamo idem?" i ostajemo u kotaču za hrčka.

And yes, we're trying to solve these problems,

I pokušavamo riješiti te probleme,

but what comes after we solve the problem?

no što dolazi nakon što ih riješimo?

And unless you define what comes after, people aren't going to move.

I dok ne odredite što dolazi nakon toga, ljudi neće ni prstom maknuti.

The businesses -- this isn't just about business --

Poslovni svijet -- ne radi se samo o njima --

but the businesses that do consistently, who break out of short-termism

poslovni svijet koji je dosljedan u tome, koji prekida s kratkoročnošću je,

not surprisingly are family-run businesses.

to nije iznenađenje, obiteljsko poduzetništvo.

They're transgenerational. They're telos. They think about the futures.

Oni su međugeneracijski. Oni su telos. Oni smišljaju različite budućnosti.

And this is an ad for Patek Philippe. They're 175 years old,

Ovo je oglas za Patek Philippe. Posluju već 175 godina

and what's amazing is that they literally embody

i zapanjujuće je da oni doslovno utjelovljuju

this kind of longpathian sense in their brand,

taj osjećaj dugoročnosti u svom brendu,

because, by the way, you never actually own a Patek Philippe,

jer, zapravo, vi nikad niste vlasnik Patek Philippea,

and I definitely won't --

ja svakako nisam --

(Laughter)

unless somebody wants to just throw 25,000 dollars on the stage.

(Smijeh)

osim ako sad netko ne dobaci 25.000 dolara na pozornicu.

You merely look after it for the next generation.

Vi samo pazite na njega za buduće generacije.

So it's important that we remember,

Važno je zapamtiti,

the future, we treat it like a noun.

da mi budućnost tretiramo kao imenicu.

It's not. It's a verb.

Ona to nije. Budućnost je glagol.

It requires action.

Zahtijeva akciju,

It requires us to push into it.

zahtijeva da uronimo u nju.

It's not this thing that washes over us.

To nije nešto što nas prelije.

It's something that we actually have total control over.

To je nešto nad čim, zapravo, imamo kontrolu.

But in a short-term society, we end up feeling like we don't.

Ali u kratkoročnom društvu, imamo osjećaj da tu kontrolu nemamo.

We feel like we're trapped.

Osjećamo se kao u zamci.

We can push through that.

Možemo izaći iz nje.

Now I'm getting more comfortable

Osjećam se malo ugodnije

in the fact that at some point

s činjenicom da ću u nekom trenutku

in the inevitable future,

neizbježne budućnosti

I will die.

umrijeti.

But because of these new ways of thinking and doing,

Ali s ovim novim načinom razmišljanja i rada,

both in the outside world and also with my family at home,

i u vanjskom svijetu i u mojoj obitelji,

and what I'm leaving my kids, I get more comfortable in that fact.

s onim što ostavljam svojoj djeci, osjećam se ugodnije.

And it's something that a lot of us are really uncomfortable with,

I to je ono zbog čega je mnogima od nas neugodnije,

but I'm telling you,

ali kažem vam,

think it through.

promislite.

Apply this type of thinking and you can push yourself past

Primijenite ovaj način razmišljanja i možete se odmaknuti

what's inevitably very, very uncomfortable.

od nečeg što je vrlo, vrlo neugodno.

And it all begins really with yourself asking this question:

Sve počinje time da se zapitate samo jedno pitanje:

What is your longpath?

Koji je moj put?

But I ask you, when you ask yourself that

Upozoravam vas, kad se to upitate

now or tonight or behind a steering wheel

sada ili večeras, dok vozite,

or in the boardroom or the situation room:

u sobi za rješavanje kriza ili dvorani za sastanke:

push past the longpath,

usmjerite se na dugoročno,

quick, oh, what's my longpath the next three years or five years?

kamo idem sljedećih tri do pet godina?

Try and push past your own life if you can

Pokušajte i odmaknite se od sadašnjeg načina življenja ako možete

because it makes you do things a little bit bigger

jer će vam to omogućiti da učinite malo veće stvari

than you thought were possible.

nego što ste mislili da možete.

Yes, we have huge, huge problems out there.

Da, imamo zaista velike probleme oko nas.

With this process, with this thinking,

Ovakvim procesom, načinom razmišljanja,

I think we can make a difference.

mislim da možemo napraviti razliku.

I think you can make a difference,

Mislim da vi možete napraviti razliku

and I believe in you guys.

i vjerujem u vas.

Thank you.

Hvala vam.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)